Greece Boat Tragedy: Are Pakistani Migrants Fleeing Hunger and Poverty?

The extensive news coverage of the loss of Pakistani migrants' lives in the recent Greece boat tragedy has linked it to "hunger" in Pakistan. The essence of these news stories is captured by a quote in a CNN headline: "We'll die of hunger anyway". It is attributed to a young man from the Pakistani town of Gujarat who is unfortunately believed to have drowned in the Mediterranean on his way to Greece.  These stories beg the following questions: Is it really true that Pakistani migrants are fleeing hunger and poverty? How can people suffering from hunger afford to pay thousands of dollars to human smugglers to leave for greener pastures?  

Pakistan Per Capita GDP. Source: World BankPakistan's GDP per capita is about $1,600

The above questions are answered by two recent studies released by the Center for Global Development as follows:  As GDP per capita rises, so do emigration rates. Emigration is seen as an investment as migrants are better-educated and richer than others. A similar 2010 study by the African Development Bank on emigration found that the share of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa remains low despite high levels of hunger and poverty in the region.  Pakistan's rates of emigration have been rising along with  GDP per capita growth over the last decade. It is currently about $1600 per person, according to the World Bank.  Pakistan's latest economic survey  reported that the per capita income in US dollar terms fell to $1,568 in FY23 from $1,766 in the previous year and $1,677 in FY21.

Outward Migration of Pakistani Workers. Source: Pakistan Bureau of Emigration

Two studies based on research by Michael Clemens and Mariapia Mendola released by the Center for Global Development (CGD) report that those who migrate are not among the world’s poorest. To the contrary, they find that migration is seen as an investment as migrants who are better-educated and richer than others. Here are the key points about migration as reported by the studies: 

1. As GDP per capita rises, so do emigration rates. This relationship slows after roughly US$5,000, and reverses after roughly $10,000 (i.e. low- to middle-income, or the level of China or Mexico).  Pakistan's current GDP per capita is about $1,600.  Pakistan's latest economic survey  reported that the per capita income in US dollar terms fell to $1,568 in FY23 from $1,766 in the previous year and $1,677 in FY21

.2. Successful, sustained economic growth in the low-income countries is therefore likely to raise the emigration rate, at least in the short-term. As incomes rise, so too does people’s ability to afford the investments that make migration easier.

3. These new migrants will not be among their countries poorest: in low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 30 percent higher incomes than the population on average, and 14 percent of these higher incomes come from more years of education.

“The world’s poorest are not the ones who migrate,” said co-author Mariapia Mendola, professor of economics the Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca and Director of the Poverty and Development Program at Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano in Milan, according to the CGD.  “Migration is seen as an investment, just like higher education. You wouldn’t decide not to send your kids to college just because your family is getting wealthier. Similarly, families are not deciding to stay put as their incomes rise. Migration changes lives and economies for the better.”

“This pattern is not new, or something to fear,” Michael Clemens, director of Migration, Displacement, and Humanitarian Policy and senior fellow at CGD, says. “As a poor country gets richer, at first more people emigrate, until the process eventually slows and reverses itself. We’ve seen it with Sweden a century ago and Mexico a half century ago. We’re seeing it now in Central America, and we’ll hopefully see the pattern emerge in sub-Saharan Africa as that region gets richer.”

A similar 2010 study by the African Development Bank on emigration found that the share of emigration from sub-Saharan Africa remains low despite high levels of poverty. Here's an excerpt of it: 

"Results show that despite an increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa, has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rates of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence of changes in labor market status."

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PEACE Cable: Pakistan's Tenth High Bandwidth Submarine Cable Ready to Go Live

Pakistan and East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) cable, a  96 TBPS (terabits per second), 15,000 km long submarine cable, is now ready for service. This brings to 10 the total number of submarine cables currently connecting or planned to connect Pakistan with the world: TransWorld1, Africa1 (2023), 2Africa (2023), AAE1, PEACE,  SeaMeWe3, SeaMeWe4, SeaMeWe5, SeaMeWe6 (2025) and IMEWE. PEACE cable has two landing stations in Pakistan: Karachi and Gwadar. SeaMeWe stands for Southeast Asia Middle East Western Europe, while IMEWE is India Middle East Western Europe and AAE1 Asia Africa Europe 1. 

PEACE Cable. Source: Cybernet

PEACE is a privately owned submarine cable that originates in Karachi, Pakistan and runs underwater all the way to Marseilles, France via multiple points in the continent of Africa.  It is being built as part of the Digital Silk Road sponsored by China. Cybernet is the local landing and global connectivity partner of PEACE Cable System in Pakistan. It is designed to enable high-speed access to a variety of content, cloud computing, gaming and video streaming platforms.  

Map of Submarine Cable Connections to Karachi, Pakistan. Source: TeleGeography

The PEACE Pakistan-Egypt segment connects Karachi, Pakistan and Zafarana, Egypt, spanning a total length of 5,800 km. The landings of Karachi and Zafarana were completed in March and December 2021 respectively, according to a press release of PEACE Cable International Network Co., Ltd. In addition, the Mediterranean segment of PEACE linking Marseille, France, to Abu Talat, Egypt, a 3,200km long project, has also achieved RFS in March 2022. Therefore, the route from Pakistan to France of the PEACE cable system is now fully constructed and ready for use.

Telecom Services Subscriptions in Pakistan as of June, 2022. Source: PTA

Number of broadband subscribers and demand for data has seen rapid double digit growth in Pakistan over the last several years. Number of broadband subscriptions has grown to 119 million, representing 53.92% of population. Per user data consumption has nearly tripled from 2.1 gigabytes per month in 2017-18 to 6.1 gigabytes per month in 2020-21. As of June 2022, it exceeds 7 GB per subscriber per month. Telecom service providers are responding to it by increasing the capacity of the Internet by laying more and higher bandwidth fiber cables and adding faster speed equipment. Ookla’s data reveals that the median mobile internet connection speed in Pakistan increased by 3.43 Mbps (+26.5%) in the twelve months to the start of 2022.

Per User Data Demand Growth. Source: Pakistan Telecom Authority 

Pakistan Per Subscriber Per Month Data Use

Worldwide Mobile Data Use Per Subscriber Per Month. Source: Statista

Cybernet, the landing partner of PEACE in Pakistan, claims it has built the country’s state-of-the-art, Cable Landing Station in Karachi, which will allow global carriers, Content Delivery Networks (CDNs), content providers and virtually all IT-enabled firms to tap into the submarine cable capacity at easily accessible interconnect points across Pakistan. 

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Digital BRI: China and Pakistan Building CPEC Info Expressway With Fiber, 5G

‘Digital Silk Road’ project is one of 12 sub-themes agreed to at the recently concluded Belt Road Forum 2019 (BRF19) in Beijing. This state-of-the-art information superhighway will involve laying fiber optic cables in Pakistan which will connect with China in the north and link with Africa and the Arab World via undersea cable to be laid from Gwadar Deep Sea Port built as part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The global project will include 5G wireless networks deployment in BRI (Belt Road Initiative) member nations.

China-Pakistan Fiber Optic Cable Route

Fiber Optic Cables:

A 820-kilometer long China-Pakistan fiber optic cable has already been laid between the city of Rawalpindi, Pakistan in the south and the Khunjerab Pass, China in the north  and operational since July, 2018.

By 2020, the 6,299 kilometers of underwater cables will extend to Djibouti from Gwadar and form the Digital Silk Route between Asia and Africa. At the same time, a space-based Silk Road will provide satellite navigation support to all BRI countries. The first Beidou base station of the Space Silk Road is already operational in Pakistan since 2017.  BeiDou is making rapid progress with 30 BRI countries already linked up.

When completed, the ambitious global initiative would use an exclusive satellite navigation system, BeiDou, fiber networks and 5G on land and submarine cables to create a multi-dimensional digital mega-project across land, sea and space.

5G Deployment:

Huawei is already pushing for 5G deployment in Pakistan where it has already established a strong market presence. Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA) has already identified spectrum in 2.6 GHz, 3.5 GHz and millimeter wave band it plans to allocate for auction to 5G vendors. This will include both fixed and mobile 5G deployment.

PTA has set up its 5G Working Group with members from telecom operators, vendors, manufacturers, Academia, R and D organizations, regulator (Pakistan Telecom Authority - PTA), Pakistan Government ministries and Frequency Allocation Board (FAB).

Over 65 million Pakistanis now subscribe to 3G and 4G services launched 5 years ago. 5G uptake rate in Pakistan is expected to be rapid. "Attractive tariffs for 5G users will be the key to encouraging a large number of customers" Mohammad Suhail, head of the Karachi based Topline Securities Investors' Advisory told Nikkei.

US vs China:

The Trump Administration sees China's aggressive 5G lead as a threat to the West's technology dominance. US government has been warning its allies against use Huawei's 5G equipment in their networks based on its fears of Chinese government espionage operations.

Chinese 5G suppliers currently hold 36% of all 5G patents worldwide. In spite of US efforts, Chinese telecom giants Huawei and ZTE are beating their western rivals to acquire access to huge markets around the world in Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East.

Summary:

China is aggressively pursuing its plans to build a global digital superhighway that runs through Pakistan. This "Digital Silk Road" involves laying fiber optic cables in Pakistan which connect with China to the north and link with Africa and the Arab World via undersea cable to be laid from Gwadar Deep Sea Port built as part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). An 820 kilometer long China-Pakistan fiber optic cable has already been laid between Rawalpindi, Pakistan and the Khunjerab Pass, China.  The global project will include 5G wireless networks deployment in BRI (Belt Road Initiative) member nations. Meanwhile, the United States is continuing its campaign to have its allies boycott 5G equipment built by China's Huawei.

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Ethiopia's First Muslim Prime Minister Makes Peace With Eritrea

Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali, a former army officer with a doctorate in conflict resolution,  was elected first Muslim prime minister of Ethiopia by the country's ruling coalition in April 2018. Soon after making history, 41-year-old Prime Minister Ahmed used his conflict resolution skills to make peace with bitter rival Eritrea. The most important immediate benefit of this deal for landlocked Ethiopia is access to Eritrea's Red Sea ports. Both nations can now focus on developing their economies and reducing poverty to improve the lives of their peoples. Their example should inspire many other developing nations, including India and Pakistan, to reach similar peace deals in the best interest of their peoples.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethipia

Who is Abiy Ahmed?

Abiy Ahmed Ali, born 15 August 1976, is chairman of both the ruling EPRDF (Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front) and the OPDO (Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization). Abiy is also an elected member of the Ethiopian parliament, and a member of the OPDO and EPRDF executive committees.

Abiy has a bachelor's degree in computer engineering, master's in business administration and PhD in conflict resolution. In 1991 as a teenager, he joined the armed opposition against the Marxist–Leninist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam. He served in Ethiopia's armed forces as an intelligence officer.

Abiy bridged the religious and ethnic divides to build a new alliance between Oromo and the Amhara regions which together make up two thirds of the total population of 100 million Ethiopians.

Ethiopian History:

Ethiopia's ancient name is Abyssinia. Among the first Muslims to arrive in Ethiopia was the first cousin of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) Jafar ibn Abi Taleb, the elder brother of Ali ibn Abi Taleb, who after accepting Islam escaped the persecution of Makkans in 7th century CE. He led a delegation of over 80 Muslim migrants to Habesha (Ethiopia) who were all granted refuge in the African Kingdom by Christian King Nejashi.

About a third of Ethiopia's population is now Muslim with the rest being mostly Christian.

Among the most prominent early Muslims was a slave named Bilal the Abyssinian or Bilal al-Habashi. Prophet Muhammad's close companion Abu Bakr secured Bilal's freedom from his abusive master. Bilal rose to become a close companion of Prophet Muhammad and the first muezzin of Prophet's mosque (Masjid Nabavi) in Madina.  Bilal is now among the world's most popular popular Muslim names.

Eritrean History:

Eritrea was ruled by the Ottomans from 16th to the 19th century. Then it was colonized by Italians. After World War II Eritrea was annexed by Ethiopia. In 1991 the Eritrean People's Liberation Front defeated the Ethiopian government to gain independence. Eritrea's population of about 5 million is equally divided between Christians (Orthodox Church, Roman Catholic and Lutheran protestants) and Muslims.  The population of the high plateau (Asmara) is predominantly Christian, whereas that of the lowlands and the coastal region are predominantly Muslim.

Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations:

The Eritrean People's Liberation Front fought and defeated the Ethiopian military to gain independence in 1991. There was brief period of peace between the two until 1998 when war broke out over disputed territory of Badme.

Conflict between the two neighbors in the Horn of Africa lasted 20 years and claimed 70,000 lives. It was over the  territory of Badme which is still held by Ethiopia. Under the peace deal reached Prime Minister  Abiy Ahmed Ali of Ethiopia and President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, Ethiopia accepted Eritrean sovereignty over Badme and agreed to  a plan to withdraw from the region.

Currently, landlocked Ethiopia relies on Djibouti ports for trade. Addis Ababa is connected by a 750 kilometer long railway line with the ports in Djibouti.  The peace deal opens the way for Ethiopia to gain access to Eritrean Red Sea ports which are much closer to Ethiopia.

Summary:

Ethiopia has recently made history by electing its first Muslim leader, Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali.  Soon after making history, the 41-year-old Prime Minister used his conflict resolution skills to make peace with bitter rival Eritrea. The most important immediate benefit of this deal for landlocked Ethiopia is access to Eritrea's Red Sea ports. Both nations can now focus on developing their economies and reducing poverty to improve the lives of their peoples.  Their example should inspire many other developing nations, including India and Pakistan, to reach similar peace deals in the best interest of their peoples.

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Pakistani Academia's Growing Interest in Decolonizing Minds

There is increasing recognition in Pakistan and other nations colonized in the past by the West of the need to "decolonize knowledge" and to deal with the entrenched "injustices inherited" from colonial masters. Language is being recognized as a "library of ideas" essential for creation and transmission of knowledge in former colonies.

Habib University Conference:

Habib University, Pakistan's leading liberal arts institution of higher learning, is leading the way forward with "Postcolonial Higher Education Conference (PHEC)", an annual conference held each year at the university's Karachi campus since 2014. The conference attracts scholars from around the world.

This year’s PHEC's theme was “Inheritance of Injustice” to highlight the results of historical injustices seen today in many facets across the world, from economic and ecological to geo-political, according to a report in Newsline Magazine.  The conference featured top global academics from South Asia, Africa, the US and the UK.

The keynote at this year's conference was delivered by Dr. Mwangi wa Githinji professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

Dr. Githinji discussed how “inherited economic, social, language and ecological structures have transmitted colonial injustice into the present.”

He suggested that “development still is understood in a deficit model based on dualities with the aim to move countries to be more like the ‘modern’ and ‘industrialized’ world” and called for education systems to also break out of their post-colonial inheritance to indigenizing systems in which “language is a library of ideas and telling a story allows us to create our own histories.”

Answering questions at the conference Professor Githinji said “liberal arts and sciences education allows us to become knowledge creators rather than just consumers. Part of this process requires a rethinking of our history, even before colonialization. Telling of a story is the creation of a memory.”

South African scholar Dr. Suren Pillay of the University of the Western Cape who also attended the conference said that the “intellectuals must struggle to decolonize knowledge, by not taking progress and civilization at face value, but by telling more multiple and messy stories that co-constitute the story of the modern state.”

Education to Colonize Minds:

Dr. Edward Said (1935-2003), Palestine-born Columbia University professor and the author of "Orientalism",  described it as the ethnocentric study of non-Europeans by Europeans.  Dr. Said wrote that the Orientalists see the people of Asia, Africa and the Middle East as “gullible” and “devoid of energy and initiative.” European colonization led to the decline and destruction of the prosperity of every nation they ruled. India is a prime example of it. India was the world's largest economy producing over a quarter of the world's GDP when the British arrived. At the end of the British Raj, India's contribution was reduced to less than 2% of the world GDP.

In his "Prison Notebooks", Antonio Gramsci, an Italian Marxist theorist and politician, says that a class can exercise its power not merely by the use of force but by an institutionalized system of moral and intellectual leadership that promotes certain ideas and beliefs favorable to it.  For Gramsci "cultural hegemony" is maintained through the consent of the dominated class which assures the intellectual and material supremacy of the dominant class.

In "Masks of Conquest", author Gauri Viswanathan says that the British curriculum was introduced in India to "mask" the economic exploitation of the colonized. Its main purpose was to colonize the minds of the natives to sustain colonial rule.

Kenyan writer Ngugi wa Thiong’o in his book "Decolonizing the Mind" talks about the "culture of apemanship and parrotry" among the natives trained by their colonial masters to maintain control of their former colonies in Africa. He argues that "the freedom for western finance capital and for the vast transnational monopolies under its umbrella to continue stealing from the countries and people of Latin America, Africa, Asia and Polynesia is today protected by conventional and nuclear weapons".

Cambridge Curriculum in Pakistan:

The colonial discourse of the superiority of English language and western education continues with a system of elite schools that uses Cambridge curriculum in Pakistan.

Over 270,000 Pakistani students from elite schools participated in Cambridge O-level and A-level International (CIE) exams in 2016, an increase of seven per cent over the prior year.

Cambridge IGCSE exams is also growing in popularity in Pakistan, with enrollment increasing by 16% from 10,364 in 2014-15 to 12,019 in 2015-16. Globally there has been 10% growth in entries across all Cambridge qualifications in 2016, including 11% growth in entries for Cambridge International A Levels and 8 per cent for Cambridge IGCSE, according to Express Tribune newspaper.

The United Kingdom remains the top source of international education for Pakistanis.  46,640 students, the largest number of Pakistani students receiving international education anywhere, are doing so at Pakistani universities in joint degree programs established with British universities, according to UK Council for International Student Affairs.

At the higher education level, the number of students enrolled in British-Pakistani joint degree programs in Pakistan (46,640) makes it the fourth largest effort behind Malaysia (78,850), China (64,560) and Singapore (49,970).

Teach Critical Thinking:

Pakistani educators and policy makers need to see the western colonial influences and their detrimental effects on the minds of youngsters. They need to promote liberal arts education and to do serious research to create knowledge. They need to improve learning by helping students learn to think for themselves critically. Such reforms will require students to ask more questions and to find answers for themselves through their own research rather than taking the words of their textbook authors and teachers as the ultimate truth.

Summary: 

There is increasing recognition in Pakistan and other nations colonized in the past by the West of the need to "decolonize knowledge" and to deal with the entrenched "injustices inherited" from the colonial masters.  Part of this post-colonial conversation is to stop being uncritical consumers of knowledge and narratives produced by the West and to encourage creation of local knowledge in the former colonies. This is a positive welcome trend toward real decolonization in Asia and Africa that I hope gathers serious momentum with more liberal arts centers of learning like the Karachi-based Habib University in the near future.

Here's an interesting discussion of the legacy of the British Raj in India as seen by writer-diplomat Shashi Tharoor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN2Owcwq6_M




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Infections Cause Low IQ in South Asia, Africa?

It has long been known that IQ scores vary by regions. The lowest average IQ scores in mid-60s have been measured in the African nations of Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Mozambique, Gabon, and highest scores of over 100 found in the nations of Singapore, South Korea, China, Japan, and Italy. South Asian and North African IQ scores are in mid 80s. However, the research surrounding intelligence assessment has been highly controversial and tainted by pseudosciences such as craniometry that was used by the Nazis to "prove" the white “race” as the most intelligent.

Here is some published data on average IQ scores of people from different races:

Richard Lynn, "Race Differences in Intelligence: An Evolutionary Analysis" 2006 Table 16.2 (indigenous populations)	Estimated average IQ
Arctic Peoples	91
East Asians	105
Europeans	100
Native Americans (north & south)	86
Southern Asian & Northern Africans	84
Bushmen (southern Africa)	54
Africans (subsaharan)	67
Native Australians (aboriginals)	62
Southeast Asians	87
Pacific Islanders	85

Apparently, this is a compilation of data from "credible sources" and published in respected journals such as American Journal of Psychology. The neutrality and factual accuracy of these studies and data have been questioned by many researchers and scientists. The most common criticisms are that these studies and tests are developed in the European context and they measure mainly problem-solving capability and skills, not innate intelligence.



For those who are curious, Pakistanis are included along with Indians in Southern Asia with an average IQ of 84, about 16 points below Europeans' average and almost 21 points behind East Asians' average. East Asians include Chinese, Japanese and Koreans. However, a quick look at the overlapping distribution curves above shows that the differences in intelligence scores within each race are much greater than the difference between races.


Recent data, published by the University of New Mexico and reported by Newsweek, shows that there is a link between lower IQs and prevalence of infectious diseases. Comparing data on national “disease burdens” (life years lost due to infectious diseases) with average intelligence scores, the authors found a striking inverse correlation—around 67 percent. They also found that the cognitive ability is rising in some countries than in others, and IQ scores have risen as nations develop—a phenomenon known as the “Flynn effect.”



According to the UNM study's author Christopher Eppig and his colleagues, the human brain is the “most costly organ in the human body.” The Newsweek article adds that the "brainpower gobbles up close to 90 percent of a newborn’s energy. It stands to reason, then, that if something interferes with energy intake while the brain is growing, the impact could be serious and longlasting. And for vast swaths of the globe, the biggest threat to a child’s body—and hence brain—is parasitic infection. These illnesses threaten brain development in several ways. They can directly attack live tissue, which the body must then strain to replace. They can invade the digestive tract and block nutritional uptake. They can hijack the body’s cells for their own reproduction. And then there’s the energy diverted to the immune system to fight the infection. Out of all the parasites, the diarrheal ones may be the gravest threat—they can prevent the body from getting any nutrients at all".

On the question of nature versus nurture, here are some data points on minorities tested in North America and Europe:


In the detailed data for South Asians, there is a distinct smaller cluster between 90 and 100, and another bigger cluster between 80 and 90, closer to 90. But then there are a bunch of scores that go as low as 75 which bring down the average to 84.



There are some who argue that there is an inverse correlation between IQ scores and religiosity as shown in the above graph. The big exception to this argument is the United States where about 60% people say religion is important to them, and the average IQ is fairly high at 98. The IQ scores are lower in India and Pakistan where, according to a Pew survey on religion, 92% and 91% respondents respectively say religion is important to them.



The results of the UNM research study point to the need for fighting infectious diseases in the developing world with greater urgency. Reduction in infectious diseases like diarrhea, malaria, pneumonia and tuberculosis can help improve the cognitive capabilities, and with it, the intelligence and the quality of life of billions in Africa and South Asia.

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New Index Finds Indians Poorer Than Africans and Pakistanis

A new multi-dimensional measure of poverty confirms that there is grinding poverty in resurgent India. It highlights the fact that just eight Indian states account for more poor people than the 26 poorest African countries combined, according to media reports. The Indian states, including Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh , Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, have 421 million "poor" people, compared to 410 million poor in the poorest African countries.



Developed at Oxford University, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) goes beyond income poverty based on $1.25 or $2 a day income levels. It measures a range of "deprivations" at household levels, such as schooling, nutrition, and access to health, clean water, electricity and sanitation. According to Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) country briefings 2010, 55% of Indians and 51% of Pakistanis are poor.



OPHI 2010 country briefings on India and Pakistan contain the following comparisons of multi-dimensional (MPI) and income poverty figures:

India
MPI= 55%,Under$1.25=42%,Under$2=76%,India_BPL=29%

Pakistan
MPI=51%,Under$1.25=23%,Under$2=60%,Pakistan_BPL=33%

Lesotho MPI=48%,Under$1.25=43%,Under$2=62%,Lesotho_BPL=68%

Haiti MPI=57%,Under$1.25=55%,Under$2=72%,Haiti_BPL=NA

China
MPI=12%,Under$1.25=16%,Under$2=36%,China_BPL=3%

Among other South Asian nations, MPI index measures poverty in Bangladesh at 58 per cent and 65 per cent in Nepal.

Source:  Where Are the Poor and Where Are the Poorest?

While OPHI's MPI is a significant improvement over the simplistic income level criterion for assessing poverty, it appears that the MPI index gives nearly three quarters of the weight to child mortality and school enrollment, and just over a quarter of the weight to a combination of critical factors such as access to electricity, sanitation and clean drinking water which are essential for proper learning environment, increased human productivity and healthy living.



South Asians face a massive challenge in overcoming pervasive poverty that makes the region look worse than the poorest of the poor nations of sub-Saharan Africa.
Just think about the South Asian situation in terms of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Over 76% of Indians and 60% of Pakistanis living on less than $2 a day are busy struggling at the bottom of the pyramid to satisfy their basic physiological needs. They have no time or to think about freedom and democracy which belong near the top of Maslow's pyramid. It will take a lot more than the usual rhetoric of freedom, democracy and human rights to help them. It will take serious and focused effort to improve their situation through better governance and greater spending on human development. Real progress will not happen as long as South Asians hang the petty thieves and elect great ones to high offices.

Here is a video clip about grinding poverty in resurgent India:



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China Signs Power Plant Deals With Pakistan

China has agreed to build several power plants in Pakistan to help the South Asian nation deal with its worsening electricity crisis. When completed over the next several years, these plants, including Nandipur (425 MW, Thermal), Guddu(800 MW, Thermal) and Neelam-Jhelum(1000 MW, Hydro), Chashma (1200 MW, Nuclear) will add more than 3000 MW of power generating capacity for the energy-hungry country. Pakistan is currently facing a deficit of 4,000 to 5,000 megawatts, resulting in extensive load-shedding (rolling blackouts) of several hours a day.

China has already installed a 325-megawatt nuclear power plant (C1) at Chashma and is currently working on another (C2) of the same capacity that is expected to be online by 2010. The agreements for C3 and C4 have also been signed. The United States has objected to China supplying C3 and C4 on the grounds that any Pak-China nuclear cooperation would require consensus approval by the NSG, of which China is now a member, for any exception to the guidelines. The US is applying double standards since it supported and got approval for such an exception from NSG for its own nuclear deal with India.

Under another agreement, China has agreed to invest about $600 million for setting up an integrated coal mining-cum-power project in Sindh. The project will produce 180 million tons of coal per year, which is sufficient to fuel the proposed 405 MW power plant. Pakistan is currently world's seventh largest coal-producing country, with coal reserves of more than 185 billion tons (second in the world after U.S.A.'s 247 billion tons). Almost all (99 percent) of Pakistan's coal reserves are found in the province of Sindh. Pakistan's largest coal field is Thar coal field which is spread over an area of 9100 square kilometers, and contains 175 billion tons of coal. So far this coal field has not been developed but efforts are underway.

The Export-Import Bank of China will lead the multi-national bank financing and China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) will provide political risk and credit default insurance for the first 425 MW project at Nanipur, Gujranwala estimated to cost $329m, according to Associated Press of Pakistan. Other participating banks include BNP-Paribas, HSBC Bank plc, and CIC France. The lead contractor is China's Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited, with G.E. France as a sub-contractor.



Political risk has been rising in many developing nations, including the South Asian nations of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (see 2008 political risk map). The cost of insurance against political and economic risk has also been going up, as the global economic crisis unfolds. Hong Kong-based Political & Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd. has recently rated India as the riskiest of 14 Asian countries, not including Pakistan and Afghanistan, it analyzed for 2009.

With their national coffers bulging and their exports driven economy slowing, the Chinese see opportunity in the developing world where others see political and economic risks. It is an opportunity for China to assure the continuing availability of raw materials and oil for its growing industries and to diversify its export markets. In addition to helping bail out the ailing US economy, China is using some of its vast cash reserves of $2 trillion to offer supplier financing as well as insurance for the non-Chinese partners to cover political and credit risk in the emerging markets. With bilateral trade volume of about $7 billion, Pakistan is only one example of Chinese interest. Others include politically-risky Afghanistan, and many nations of Sub-Saharan Africa where the Chinese are financing and building major infrastructure projects. In Afghanistan, China has committed nearly $2.9 billion to develop the Aynak copper field, including the infrastructure that must be built with it such as a power station to run the operation and a railroad to haul the tons of copper it hopes to extract. The Aynak project is the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan to date, according to Reuters. The trade between Africa and China has grown an average of 30% in the past decade, topping $106 billion last year.

Looking at how the Chinese are working with many developing nations in Asia and Africa, it appears to be an unwritten Chinese policy to offer trade and investment in projects rather than direct cash aid. Given the rampant government corruption in many developing nations, including Pakistan, the Chinese policy is a sound one. It attempts to benefit the people and the nation more than the corrupt politicians and government officials who they must deal with.

In terms of Chinese dominance in power infrastructure development, one only needs to look at the heavy Chinese presence in the Indian power sector development. According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese companies are now supplying equipment for about 25% of the new power capacity India is adding to its grid, up from almost nothing a few years ago. They have sent thousands of skilled workers to Indian plant sites, some of which boast Chinese chefs, Chinese television and ping pong.

Clearly, the Chinese objectives are not entirely altruistic. Their strategy is driven by enlightened self-interest in the developing world, which they see as source of commodities that their industries need as well as growing export market for their products and services. But the Chinese want to do good and do well at the same time by helping to lift people out of poverty in the developing world. By doing so, they want to be seen as friends and partners by the people in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The strategy enhances China's status as the new superpower that takes its global leadership role seriously.

Related Links:

Chinese Do Good and Do well in Developing World

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Forget Chinindia! It's Chimerica to the Rescue!

China Asserts its Role as Global Leader

The world's GDP in 2009 will shrink for the first time since WWII, according to the World Bank. Poor developing nations will be particularly hard hit with a shortfall of $270 billion to $700 billion, which will set them back by many years. Many of these nations are looking for help from the traditional donors in the West. But the West itself is preoccupied by its economic woes, with tent cities popping up all over the United States as home foreclosures rise.

According to the latest estimates of the World Bank, almost 40 percent of 107 developing countries are highly exposed to the poverty effects of the current economic crisis, less than 10 percent face little risk and the remainder are moderately exposed. Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan are ranked among the 43 countries most exposed to poverty risks, raising the horrible specter of further political instability and dangerous social strife in a very important region of the world.

As one of the developing nations facing a serious economic crisis, Pakistan has received International Monetary Fund's commitment of $7.6 billion rescue package. But it needs more help. China refused cash aid to Pakistan during last month's China visit by President Asif Ali Zardari to seek financial assistance. At the time, many press reports inaccurately said that Zardari returned empty handed.

Instead of cash aid, the Chinese offered $450 million to Pakistan as suppliers’ credit for Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project during Zardari's visit. China and Pakistan also signed specific agreements to help Pakistan on a number of other water and power development projects. Prior to these agreements, China has been helping Pakistan in many infrastructure projects such the Gwadar port and a number of nuclear power plants. Looking at how the Chinese are working with many developing nations in Asia and Africa, it appears to be an unwritten Chinese policy to offer trade and investment in projects rather than direct cash aid. Given the rampant government corruption in many developing nations, including Pakistan, the Chinese policy is a sound one. It attempts to benefit the people and the nation more than the corrupt politicians and government officials who they must deal with.

The Chinese government recognizes the crucial role it must play to lead the world out of the current economic crisis. Not only has it announced significant stimulus spending, it is also continuing to lend to the United States to help in America's recovery back to health. Together, the US and China have become the twin locomotives pulling the global economy. The combined behemoth of China and America has been labeled by Harvard business school professor Niall Ferguson as "Chimerica". Ferguson believes "we are living through a challenge to a phenomenon Moritz Schularick and I christened “Chimerica.” In this view, the most important thing to understand about the world economy over the past decade has been the relationship between China and America. If you think of it as one economy called Chimerica, that relationship accounts for around 13 percent of the world’s land surface, a quarter of its population, about a third of its gross domestic product, and somewhere over half of the global economic growth of the past six years."

Along with helping the US economy recover, China has a unique position and policy to help the developing world at the same time. Not only does the West have the white man's colonial baggage to contend with, the western view of Africa is one of wasted aid and growing poverty. This view holds that, if Africa generates any kind of growth, it is in suffering—and in the overseas aid sent to address that, now a $40-billion-a-year industry, according to Time Magazine. Naturally, with a new appeal every year and a new disaster every other, some people are feeling donor fatigue. They have begun to wonder if all that money is doing any good. They argue that aid creates dependence, fuels corruption, undermines democracy and stifles development in Africa and some of the poor underdeveloped nations in Asia and Latin America.

Learning from the western experience, the Chinese have sought to avoid fueling the culture of corruption and dependence by staying away from cash hand-outs. Instead, the trade between Africa and China has grown an average of 30% in the past decade, topping $106 billion last year. Chinese engineers are working across the continent, mining copper in Zambia and cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and tapping oil in Angola, according to Time. Nor is this merely exploitative. China bought its access by agreeing to create a new infrastructure for Africa, building roads, railways, hospitals and schools across the continent. The current economic crisis is not expected to affect China's march in Africa: on the contrary, with the West's plans in Africa on hold at best, Beijing views it as an opportunity to extend China's lead. "We will continue to have a vigorous aid program here, and Chinese companies will continue to invest as much as possible," Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in South Africa in January. "It is a win-win solution." Dambisa Moyo, who wrote Dead Aid, says those who need convincing about Africa should ask themselves if they are convinced about China, "because if you back China, you're backing Africa." Ecobank CEO Ekpe says part of the explanation for China's zeal for Africa is a new way of looking at Africans. "[The Chinese] are not setting out to do good," he says. "They are setting out to do business. It's actually much less demeaning."

Clearly, the Chinese objectives are not entirely altruistic. Their strategy is driven by enlightened self-interest in the developing world, which they see as source of commodities that their industries need as well as growing export market for their products and services. But the Chinese want to do good and do well at the same time by helping to lift people out of poverty in the developing world. By doing so, they want to be seen as friends and partners by the people in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The strategy enhances China's status as the new superpower that takes its global leadership role seriously.

Is India Responsible for Demise of Doha?

India led the charge to kill Doha, say the western government officials and commentators about the failure of the latest round of World Trade Organization (WTO) talks in Geneva to conclude a wide ranging agreement on world trade. Backing India's demands, including right to impose food import tariffs and end to agriculture subsidies in US and Europe, were Brazil, China and other developing nations in Asia. Africans were angry that their trade issues, particularly cotton, were not even discussed as the negotiators from developing giants fought pitched battles with their counterparts in developed nations.

"The way the Doha Round collapsed is a preview of what we're likely to see in other negotiations," said Kimberly Elliott, a senior fellow for the Center for Global Development, a Washington think tank, told the Wall Street Journal. "Emerging markets [such as China and India] are taking a big role," she said, sometimes elbowing out even poorer nations. Other important multilateral negotiations underway include carbon emission reductions which are likely to see similar discord between developed and developing nations.

By all accounts, the key reason for the Doha collapse was the failure to reach agreement on agriculture tariffs by developing countries and farm subsidies by US and Europe. Both sides were looking to protect their farmers from the downside of free trade. To learn more about the political power of US corporate farm lobby, please read my recent post "The US Food Aid and the Farm Lobby". Neither side could muster the courage to face the wrath of their powerful domestic lobbies in reaching a comprehensive agreement that would dramatically increase trade for a whole range of goods and services and significantly cut tariffs. There is a lot of interest by western companies in selling a broad range of luxury goods, financial services and high-tech products in emerging markets. The developing world would benefit by lowered tarriffs and easier access for their goods and services to markets in US, Europe, Japan and South Korea.

Mr. Pascal Lamy, the director general of the world trade organization, said negotiators' positions had converged on 18 of 20 topics on their "to-do list." But they couldn't narrow the gaps on the 19th, a safeguard mechanism sought by developing countries that would let them temporarily raise tariffs when food imports surge and severely lower prices for domestic farmers, according to Mr. Lamy. In particular, China and India wanted the trigger for such tariffs to be a 10% increase for imports, and the U.S. wouldn't settle for a threshold lower than 40%, The Wall Street Journal reports. Once "it became clear that the differences were irreconcilable," Mr. Lamy said, "the remaining issues, including cotton, were not even negotiated." The agreement on cotton was of particular interest to cotton producers in Africa. A successful agreement on cotton would have been felt most keenly in the West and Central African countries of Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Togo, where cotton accounts for up to 60 percent of exports, as well as other African producers such as Uganda and Tanzania.

Venting his frustration at the failure, Lamy said to reporters, “What members have let slip through their fingers is a package worth more than $130 billion in tariff-saving annually by the end of the implementation period, with $35 billion saving in agriculture and $95 billion in industrial goods".

Prior to the collapse, Pakistani delegation led by Commerce Minister Mr. Ahmad Mukhtar, appeared to be hoping for significants benefits to flow to Pakistan from the success of Doha.

Before hitting the food import tariff deal-breaker, there was a weeklong meeting of 35 trade ministers of leading countries, including Pakistan, which produced significant agreements. Dr. Manzoor Ahmed, Pakistan’s Ambassador to WTO, told Dawn that it has been agreed that the US would cut its allowable subsidies by 70 per cent from $48 billion to $14.7 billion while EU has agreed to cut them by 80 per cent.It has also been agreed that developed countries could cut their agricultural tariffs by an average of 60 per cent.

A few days ago, Dr. Manzoor Ahmad also told Dawn that the most important area for Pakistan’s concern was cuts for tariffs on industrial goods. It had been agreed that all tariffs in developed countries would be brought below 6.5 per cent under the proposed package. Thus, current tariff of 19.6 per cent on export of cotton shirts would be reduced to 5.6 per cent or by over 70 per cent. For knitted shirts of man-made fibers where Pakistan could only manage exports of only two million dollars because of high tariffs of 32 per cent, this would now come down to 6.4 per cent, he said prior to Doha's collapse.

There would be many such new market opportunities for Pakistani exporters, the Pakistani trade rep hoped and added similar opportunities would arise in case of EU where Pakistani exporters would pay tariffs of eight per cent and 12 per cent on most of their exports. All these tariffs would be reduced to below five per cent, he said. On top of that generalized system of preference (GSP) of 20 per cent would likely stay. This would imply a reduction of over 50 per cent in duty on our exports to the EU, Dr Manzoor said and added in many other countries, such as Canada and Australia, also there would be many openings for Pakistani products.

All of Pakistani delegations' hopes and those of other developing nations were dashed, at least for the moment, with the collapse of Doha. There was also regional discord on display among South Asia nations as Bangladesh delegate complained about unfairness. He said, "We ask the Chair to apply the same methodology that was applied for selecting the tariff lines for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and then give us the tariff lines that come up for Bangladesh." Bangladesh representative continued, "We strongly believe that same and equal methodology should be used, and we will accept the tariff lines that will be selected after application of that methodology".

The Doha collapse has revived the angry rhetoric that has often characterized the WTO standoffs in recent years, arguments that have tended to embrace the urgent geopolitical issues of the day. U.S. trade representative Susan Schwab told the Wall Street Journal that "in the face of the global food crisis, it's unconscionable that this came down to how much countries could raise their barriers to imports of food." Indian trade and commerce minister Kamal Nath, expressing a view felt widely among developing-country negotiators incensed at what they see as excessive, insensitive U.S. demands, said "it's unfortunate that in a development round" -- a major theme of Doha -- "we couldn't agree to an issue of livelihood and security." Mr. Lamy, Le Monde adds, declined to engage in what he called the "accusation game" and said he would consult with WTO members on what to do next.


Free trade advocates argue that the trend toward freer trade is essential for continued growth of the world economy. In 1990, trade represented about 40% of world GDP, according to the World Bank. By 2004, trade exceeded 55% of world GDP, and the global economy had expanded by 50%. The five fastest-growing countries from 1990 to 2004 were Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, Ireland and Vietnam, and all of them had annual double-digit increases in trade. Meanwhile, the countries that traded the least -- Iran, many African countries -- have stagnated.

Lamenting the demise of Doha, the Wall Street Journal editorial singles out Kamal Nath, the Indian Commerce Minister, for the harshest criticism. The Journal editorial says, "The real battle is between those who want to expand this era of global trade and prosperity, and those who want to carve out their own protected niches."

The Journal editorial goes on to say, "The latter seems to include Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, who is the main villain in this week's failure. He preened as a Third World hero by refusing to open his country further to farm imports, insisting on a "special safeguard mechanism" that would have let countries jack up their tariffs if imports rose too rapidly. He claimed this would protect the "livelihood of millions of farmers" in India. But the rise of India's middle class has coincided precisely with the move of millions from the countryside to cities, as well as India's growing engagement with the world economy. More Indians will stay poorer longer because of his obstinance."

Not everyone is unhappy with the collapse of Doha. The critics of free trade hail Kamal Nath as a hero. Reuters reports that anti-globalization groups welcomed the collapse of talks on a new world trade treaty as a triumph for farmers, workers and the poor around the globe and a blow against "big business." And even mainstream labor and farm groups argued that the deal on the table at the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha round negotiations over the past few days was so bad that it was just as well that it had been abandoned. "Victory for small farmers, workers, civil society and developing nations," declared the US-based Public Citizen group, which for over a decade has campaigned against the WTO and its drive to liberalize international trade. Public Citizen group is just one of many NGOs that have organized and gained strength over the last decade. This new breed of NGOs opposes what is perceived as the corporate-led globalization efforts to serve the interests of the big multi-national corporations rather the ordinary people in developing and developed countries.

Here's a video clip of Pascal Lamy announcing the failure of WTO Talks in Geneva on July 30, 2008: