Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Pak-Saudi Joint Defense: Is Pakistan A Major Power or Bit Player in the Middle East?

The recently signed “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan states that “any aggression against either country will be considered an aggression against both”. It is being seen by some geopolitical analysts as the beginning of an "Islamic NATO". Others, such as Indian-American analyst Shadanand Dhume, have dismissed Pakistan as no more than a "bit player" in the Middle East. Where does the truth lie?

Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif(L) with Saudi Crown Prince MBS

Is Pakistan really capable of defending Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf nations against external aggression such as the recent Israeli attack on Qatar? Can Pakistan provide a nuclear umbrella to deter aggression against its friends in the Middle East? Or is it too weak economically and unstable politically to provide security guarantees to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) nations like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? Let's try and understand the context which has brought about this bilateral security arrangement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have long relied on the West for their security. But, on September 9, 2025, when Israel launched an airstrike on a residential compound in Doha, Qatar, the U.S. and its western allies did nothing to defend the Qataris. It’s notable that this attack occurred on a U.S. ally which hosts the largest American military base in the region. The fact that the United States did nothing to stop this Israeli aggression has shaken the confidence of the G.C.C. nations in the willingness of the United States to defend them, particularly from any Israeli attacks. Israel has attacked almost every country in the Middle East, including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen in the last 12 months. Israel has gone rogue. It is carrying out a genocide in Gaza with impunity. It is being aided and abetted by the West in its crimes against humanity. It appears to have the license from the United States to do so.

Given these realities, who can the Gulf Arabs turn to for security? Which Muslim nation has Saudi Arabia had the closest military ties with for decades? Which country with nuclear weapons is most likely to deter attacks on the Saudis from nuclear-armed adversaries like Israel? Who else but nuclear-armed Pakistan!

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

There has been no official US reaction to the Pakistani-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement so far. However, judging from the recent cordial meeting of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir with President Trump at the White House, it appears that Team Trump does not object to it.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. Last year, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

In January this year at an Islamabad event, Ambassador Munir Akram articulated potential rationales for developing a missile of increased range, according to the US Congressional Research Service. A missile exceeding the Shaheen-III range may be necessary to reach Indian missiles deployed on bases in the Indian Ocean located "well beyond" the Shaheen-III range, he said, adding that India has sought to establish access to such bases. Akram also posited that Pakistan may need to develop an indigenous space launch vehicle or an anti-satellite weapon; ballistic missile programs can aid the development of such platforms.

Biden Administration Accused Pakistan of Developing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Yes, Pakistan does have a weak economy. But that is primarily because of significant underinvestment over decades. That’s where the oil-rich Gulf Arab nations can help. They have been investing trillions of dollars in the West in the hope of getting security from them. They have huge sovereign investment funds which can invest in Pakistan. Even if they invest a fraction of what they have invested in the U.S., the positive effects on Pakistan’s economy will be immense.

As to Pakistan’s political instability, it can be managed by a hybrid system of government where the politicians and the generals reach an understanding to benefit both as well as the country. It will also serve Saudi interests to use its considerable influence in Pakistan to bring political and economic stability to the country.

Given today's geopolitical realities, Pakistan is the best choice for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to deter aggression from Israel and other aggressors in the region. Gulf Arab nations have generally welcomed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, viewing it as a move that strengthens regional security amid concerns about US commitments. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has also welcomed it, describing it as "a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system". In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, he said: “Iran welcomes the defensive pact between the two brotherly Muslim countries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as a beginning for a comprehensive regional security system with the cooperation of the Muslim states of West Asia in the political security and defense domains”.

Friday, September 19, 2025

Silicon Valley Pakistani-Americans Among Top Donors to Mamdani Campaign

Omer Hasan and Mohammad Javed are the top donors to Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign in New York City, according to media reports. Both are former executives of Silicon Valley technology firm AppLovin. Born and raised in Silicon Valley, Omer is the son of a Pakistani-American couple who are long-time residents of Silicon Valley, California.

Omer Hasan, Top Donor to Mamdani Campaign

Muhammad Javed donated $251,500 to New Yorkers for Lower Costs, a super-PAC backing Zohran Mamdani. Omer gave $250,000 to this super PAC. Other Mamdani super PAC donors include Liz Simons, Philanthropist, and daughter of hedge-fund billionaire Jim Simons, who gave $250,000 and Unity & Justice Fund, the political arm of the Council on American-Islamic Relations CAIR, that gave $100,000. But the biggest support has come from small donors to the Mamdani campaign. It has received a lot more money from small-dollar donors. In August 2025, Mamdani's campaign had raised over $1 million from more than 8,600 private donors, with half of the individual donations being less than $25. His campaign also got millions in public matching funds due to this strong small-dollar donor support.

Andrew Cuomo, Mamdani's main rival, is bankrolled by Republican Zionist billionaires like Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager who backs Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's genocidal war in Gaza. Mamdani has called Netanyahu a "war criminal". He has promised to order the New York Police Department to arrest the Israeli Prime Minister if he is elected.

Mother Jones reported that Cuomo's super PAC Fix The City got huge contributions from the rich and powerful donors like DoorDash ($1 million), along with Ackman ($500,000), and former mayor Michael Bloomberg ($8.3 million). Media mogul Barry Diller and Netflix chairman Reed Hastings gave a quarter of a million. Home Depot co-founder and Republican mega-donor Ken Langone gave $100,000. Pro-Trump hedge-funder Dan Loeb gave $350,000. James and Kathryn Murdoch offered $50,000 apiece. So did Stephen Ross, who lives in the borough of West Palm Beach, Florida and owns the Miami Dolphins. Alice Walton, of the Bentonville, Arkansas Waltons, pitched in with a humble offering of $100,000. Both Greenwich, Connecticut’s Jeff Wilpon, and the man he sold the New York Mets to—Stamford’s Steve Cohen—were good for $25,000.

Cuomo continues to significantly lag Mamdani in the polls in spite of having a huge funding advantage. A CBS News/YouGov poll (September 7–13) put Mamdani at 43% to Cuomo's 28%, a 15-point lead. A Marist survey the same week showed Mamdani ahead 45% to 24%, while Quinnipiac gave him a 22-point lead at 45% to 23%. An Emerson College poll for PIX11 and The Hill had a nearly identical 43% to 28% margin, and a New York Times/Siena poll (September 2–6) showed Mamdani leading 46% to 24%, according to Newsweek.

Monday, September 15, 2025

Modi's Hindutva: Has BJP's Politics Hurt India's International Image?

The Indian cricket team's crass behavior after defeating the Pakistani team at the Asia Cup 2025 group encounter has raised eyebrows among sports fans around the world. Not only did Suryakumar Yadav, the Indian team captain, refuse to do the customary handshake before and after the match in Dubai but he also made controversial statements linking the match with the recent India-Pakistan conflict. “A few things in life are above sportsman’s spirit ......We stand with all the victims of the Pahalgam terror attack and with their families, and dedicate this win to our brave armed forces who took part in Operation Sindoor”, he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

This latest incident in the UAE illustrates one of the reasons why there is a growing backlash against the Indian diaspora in Australia, Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States. All of these countries and regions have seen very public expressions of disgust at the behavior of Indians in these countries. This is in part attributed to the politics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proclaimed his country as "Vishwaguru", meaning the world's guru. It is often seen as an expression of Hindu Supremacy and denigration of all others.

The arrogance of the Indian diaspora was highlighted last year when Vivek Ramaswamy, then a candidate for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, said Americans don't have a good enough work ethic as American culture "venerated mediocrity over excellence." He offered it as a key justification to bring in more Indians to work in the United States. The backlash in the United States was immediate and strong. The essence of the response to the Hindu supremacist criticism of the US culture went like this: People from India, a "shit-hole" country, are jealous of America. Earlier, Professor Amy Wax of University of Pennsylvania, told Tucker Carlsen that “the role of envy and shame in the way the third world [sic] regards the first world […] creates ingratitude of the most monstrous kind.” She also said that ‘Brahmin women’ of India are taught that they are better than everybody.

American social media, particularly Trump's MAGA base, have turned against India and Indians, making them the most hated diaspora in the United States. They are getting a taste of the kind of hate that the BJP, India's ruling party, has been promoting against Muslims. Anti-Indian slurs like "pajeet", "dirty Indian" and "coolie" have become common.

Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently published an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions" in which he wrote that "the country (India) is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well".

The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi has warned Indians traveling to the United States they could have their American visas revoked if they commit serious crimes on American soil. The advisory was issued days after police bodycam footage of an Indian woman allegedly shoplifting goods worth around $1,300 from a Target store in Illinois was widely shared online, according to The Independent.

In recent years, India has emerged as a major hub for global scams. The US government has alleged in court documents that a large enterprise originating from India was involved in stealing nearly $1.5 billion from elderly Americans. Recently, two Indian nationals, Pranay Mamindi and Kishan Patel, were found guilty of participating in a money laundering conspiracy, concealing the source of the money, and using the illegally gained money to further promote a criminal enterprise. Six other defendants from India also pleaded guilty and are awaiting sentencing.

These global scams appear to have started amid widespread unemployment in India. Many of the scammers previously worked in call centers where they learned to use computers and telecommunications networks to reach out and talk to Americans. In 2022, U.S. citizens fell victim to a massive loss of over $10 billion from phishing calls orchestrated by illegal Indian call centers, according to data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

Indian-Americans, too, have been found guilty in a number of high-profile scams. A federal jury convicted former Theranos executive Ramesh "Sunny" Balwani, an Indian-American entrepreneur, on all 12 counts of fraud in 2022. Balwani was born in 1965 in Pakistan to a Sindhi Hindu family. His one-time girlfriend and partner Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of Theranos, was convicted on similar charges earlier that year. Both face up to 20 years in prison.

Last year, a federal judge sentenced former Outcome Health CEO Rishi Shah, an Indian-American, to 7½ years in prison for a massive fraud scheme that prosecutors say enabled a “jet-set lifestyle” featuring private aircraft, yachts and a tony Chicago home.

In 2020, Dr. John Nath Kapoor, Indian-American CEO of Insys Therapeutics, was found guilty of conspiring to recklessly and illegally boost profits from the opioid painkiller Subsys, a fentanyl spray designed to be absorbed under the tongue, according to multiple media reports.

Rajat Gupta, an Indian-American former global head of McKinsey & Company, was convicted of insider trading in 2012. He was charged with passing on confidential business information about Goldman Sachs to hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam. Gupta was found guilty on multiple counts of conspiracy and securities fraud and served a two-year prison sentence.

India Ranks Number One For Misinformation and Disinformation

Beyond the hub of scams and frauds, it seems that India has earned a reputation as the epicenter of misinformation and disinformation. According to experts surveyed for the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risk Report, India was ranked highest for the risk of misinformation and disinformation. This was on full display during the recent conflict with Pakistan.

After the recent Pahalgam militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian government immediately blamed it on Pakistan without any investigation or evidence. More than a month later, the perpetrators have neither been clearly identified nor apprehended. And yet, the government of Prime Minister Modi proceeded with air strikes inside Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated and shot down several Indian fighter jets, including its most advanced French Rafales. The conflict began to quickly escalate with strikes and counter-strikes, with the world fearing a nuclear exchange. This prompted the United States and several other countries to intervene and force a ceasefire in less than 4 days of armed conflict.

During this short 4-day period, the Indian mainstream media was filled with lies. Here's how the Washington Post reported this: "Times Now Navbharat reported that Indian forces had entered Pakistan; TV9 Bharatvarsh told viewers that Pakistan’s prime minister had surrendered; Bharat Samachar said he was hiding in a bunker. All of them, along with some of the country’s largest channels — including Zee News, ABP News and NDTV — repeatedly proclaimed that major Pakistani cities had been destroyed".

It is unfortunate but true: Fraud and falsehood have become endemic in the Indian society. Part of the blame falls squarely on the ruling BJP party which promotes falsehoods. In 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man and home minister Amit Shah told his party's volunteers commonly known as Modi Bhakts: "We can keep making messages go viral, whether they are real or fake, sweet or sour". "Keep making messages go viral. We have already made a WhatsApp group with 32 lakh people in Uttar Pradesh; every morning they are sent a message at 8 am", Shah added, according to a report in Dainik Bhaskar, an Indian Hindi-language daily newspaper.

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, September 8, 2025

Trump's Tariffs on India: Can China or Russia Make Up For Lost Exports to US?

The United States is the biggest export market for India. Among its top 5 trading partners, the US is also the only country with which India runs a trade surplus. This surplus is now at risk with the 50% tariff recently imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from India. Can Prime Minister Narendra make up for it by cozying up to China and Russia? Recent trade data shows he can't.

While India has enjoyed a significant surplus in trade with the US, the South Asian nation has been running large trade deficits with China and Russia. Last year, for example, India had a $100 billion trade deficit with China and a $62 billion deficit with Russia. On the other hand, India ran over a $40 billion trade surplus with the US. Given these figures, it's hard to understand what India hopes to achieve by getting closer to Beijing and Moscow. The fact is that the US is the world's biggest economy that offers the largest and most profitable export market for most countries. Loss of the US export market spells major trouble for any economy in the world. President Donald Trump knows this and he is using it to make new trade deals to America's advantage. Europeans, Japanese and Koreans have essentially accepted higher tariffs in return for continued access to the US market, while China is negotiating a trade deal with Washington.

The loss of the US export market also means heavy job losses in India's major sectors like textiles, shoes, gems and jewelry and shrimps exports. Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at the investment bank Jefferies, puts the economic blow at £41 billion-£45 billion, according to the Guardian newspaper. He singles out textiles, footwear, jewelry and gems, all of which are highly labour-intensive, as “the most negatively impacted”. Tens of millions of jobs are at risk in these industries. "The stakes for India’s government are political as well as economic. The prime minister, Narendra Modi, has pitched manufacturing as a way to provide jobs to the millions of young Indians who join the labour force each year. These industries employ tens of millions, directly and indirectly", the Guardian reports.

Explaining the punitive India tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said: "India came to the table early. They’ve been slow rolling things. So I think that the president, the whole trade team has been frustrated with them. And also, you know, India, India has been a large buyer of sanctioned Russian oil that they then resell as refined products. So, you know, they have not been a great global actor".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi clearly misjudged what he needed to do with Trump 2.0. He continued business as usual, counting on his "bromance" with the US president to get a favorable deal. He thought the US policy of "strategic altruism" with India will continue as it had under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations. Modi let his billionaire friends Adani and Ambani rake in billions in profits on Russian oil trade. The discounted Russian oil Adani and Ambani bought was refined and exported for a huge profit to buyers around the world. Now the ordinary Indians are paying the price for Modi's folly.

Worried about a slowing economy, the Modi government is now trying to stimulate domestic consumption by cutting GST (general sales taxes). It is a good move but it will not make up for dollars lost from the precipitous fall in exports to the US market. This fear is causing the Indian currency to fall against the US dollar. There are tough times ahead for the Indian economy.

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, August 31, 2025

US-India Ties: Does Trump Have a Grand Strategy?

Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US strategy has been to woo India and to build it up as a counterweight to rising China in the Indo-Pacific region. Most beltway analysts agree with this policy. However, the current Trump administration has taken significant actions, such as the imposition of 50% tariffs on India's exports to the US, that appear to defy this conventional wisdom widely shared in the West. Does President Trump have a grand strategy guiding these actions? George Friedman, the founder of Geopolitical Futures, believes the answer is Yes.

George Friedman

George Friedman is an American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He writes about international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor

In a recent podcast, Friedman said "India is not an essential country from the American standpoint". "They (Indians) are a useful ally, but precisely not indispensable and in fact, not really able to give us what we want", he added. "They do participate in the quad, but their naval force is not significantly needed. The quad being an alliance basically against China at sea. And simultaneously, it was discovered that their economic capacity is far below what we need. So it was not that they were dispensable, but at the same time, it was not something that we had to take into account greatly".

Getting tough with the Indians also allowed the US to "signal to the Chinese that we’re not going to be going to war with them, which they worried about India and to the Russians that we really are going to impose tariffs".

In answer to a question as to whether the Indians might feel the US is using them as "a tool as it tries to reach deals with Russia and China", Friedman said: "this is the problem of weaker nations trying to play games with very strong nations. They get used".

What Friedman has articulated runs counter to a quarter century of the US policy of boosting India to check China. Even some of India's friends in Washington are starting to acknowledge that India is no match to China. Ashley Tellis, a strongly pro-India analyst in the United States, recently wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine titled "India's Great Power Delusions". Here is an excerpt from it:

"Although India has grown in economic strength over the last two decades, it is not growing fast enough to balance China, let alone the United States, even in the long term. It will become a great power, in terms of relative GDP, by midcentury, but not a superpower. In military terms, it is the most significant conventional power in South Asia, but here, too, its advantages over its local rival are not enormous: in fighting in May, Pakistan used Chinese-supplied defense systems to shoot down Indian aircraft. With China on one side and an adversarial Pakistan on the other, India must always fear the prospect of an unpalatable two-front war. Meanwhile, at home, the country is shedding one of its main sources of strength—its liberal democracy—by embracing Hindu nationalism. This evolution could undermine India’s rise by intensifying communal tensions and exacerbating problems with its neighbors, forcing it to redirect security resources inward to the detriment of outward power projection. The country’s illiberal pivot further undermines the rules-based international order that has served it so well".

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Humbled Modi Reaches Out to China After Trump Turns Hostile

Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be shedding his Hindutva arrogance. He is reaching out to China after President Donald Trump and several top US administration officials have openly and repeatedly targeted India for harsh criticism over the purchase of Russian oil. Top American officials have accused India, particularly the billionaire friends of Mr. Modi, of “profiteering” from the Russian oil trade. While welcoming India’s outreach, the Chinese have indicated they expect New Delhi to stop covert aid to militant groups attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong in New Delhi recently told his Indian audiences that “Pakistan is a victim of terrorism”. Also, the United States has recently labeled the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and its affiliated the Majeed Brigade as “international terrorists”. Majeed Brigade claimed responsibility for hijacking of the Jaffar Express train in Balochistan and murdering 31 people in cold blood in March this year. The Chinese have reached out to the Afghan Taliban leadership to get them to stop the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and related terrorist groups like ISIS-K from launching cross-border attacks in Pakistan which kill Chinese and Pakistani citizens and impact Chinese projects. The US has also praised the Pakistani government as a “phenomenal partner” in combatting international terrorism.

There is significant evidence of Indian intelligence agencies’ involvement in terrorist attacks on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects funded by the Chinese government. Indian covert operative Kulbhushan Jhadav, now in Pakistani custody, has detailed his role in carrying out such attacks. In “My Enemy’s Enemy”, Indian investigative journalist Avinash Paliwal has described at some length the connections between the Indian government agents and the Afghan and Baloch militants targeting the Pakistani state and various development projects undertaken under the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Paliwal talks of the presence of Afghan and Baloch exiles in New Delhi where the Indian intelligence services recruit "human assets" to use against Pakistan. He says he has conducted interviews about Indian support for the TTP (Pakistani Taliban) on the ground in Afghanistan “whose details can not be divulged”.

In recent years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has also been accused of ordering targeted assassinations of dissidents in multiple countries, including Canada, the US and Pakistan. Reacting to the report of Canadian allegations against the Indian government, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi said: “We are aware of the nature of our eastern neighbor, we know what they are capable of … so it is not a surprise for us. “We caught [one of their] serving naval intelligence officers on our soil. He (Kulbhushan Jadhav) is in our custody and admitted that he came here to create instability and spread evil,” he added.

Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States. The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then, Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China. However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core. A two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses. The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies.

Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E?si=ZB1c7Dd8ntQdKeFi

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Miller vs Schiller: The Battle of the Lobbyists for India and Pakistan

The Indian government has hired Jason Miller, a former Trump aide, to lobby for India in Washington, DC for a monthly sum of $150,000 per month. Pakistan has retained Keith Schiller, also a former Trump aide, for a monthly compensation of $50,000 to help Pakistan get favorable treatment by the Trump Administration. It shows that India is outspending Pakistan by 3 to 1 on lobbying in Washington, but it does not appear to be paying off for New Delhi.

Singh's X message said: "Pakistan is paying $50,000 a month to their lobbyist in DC, while India is paying $150,000. Perhaps the lobbyists don't count. It is what Trump think and does that matters, and his personal equation with the leaders of the countries". He also shared a photo of a Times of India report by Chidanand Rajghatta.

Jason Miller served as spokesman for the 2016 Trump Presidential Campaign and the Trump Transition Team. Keith Schiller worked as Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Director of Oval Office Operations.

The obvious reason for the two South Asian nations to pick these men is that they have both been close to President Trump. It is not clear how influential these individuals have been in the recent decisions by the Trump administration in imposing vastly different levels of tariffs on India (50%) and Pakistan (19%). It could also have been other factors such as the substance of trade negotiations and India disputing President Trump's role in bringing about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after a 4-day war in May, 2025, that influenced Trump's decisions.

A Financial Times story appears to suggest that Pakistan's crypto deal with World Liberty Financial, a Trump-backed cryptocurrency venture. Here's an excerpt from the FT story: "Zach Witkoff, the son of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, said during the trip that Pakistan had “trillions of dollars” of mineral wealth ripe for tokenization. Since then, Bilal bin Saqib, Pakistan’s minister for crypto and blockchain, has emerged as a shadow diplomat, taking part in trade talks with Washington and pitching Pakistan’s crypto potential to figures close to Trump’s family and advisers. Pakistani officials also point to their conduct during the May conflict with India as having bolstered their credibility with Trump".

FT story quotes Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, as saying: “Pakistan is a rare country that is friends with China, Iran, the Gulf states, to a lesser extent Russia, and now, again, the US....The US sees (Pakistan's Military Chief) Munir as someone who can play a useful strategic role, and the Pakistanis keep their lines open to everyone but know to pull back when one relationship is clashing with another.”

Saturday, August 9, 2025

India Tariffs: Is Modi-Trump Bromance Over?

President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India's exports to the United States. This is far higher than most countries facing US tariffs. Explaining the punitive India tariffs, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: "India came to the table early. They’ve been slow rolling things. So I think that the president, the whole trade team has been frustrated with them. And also, you know, India, India has been a large buyer of sanctioned Russian oil that they then resell as refined products. So, you know, they have not been a great global actor".

Indian Cartoonist Satish Acharya on Trump-Modi Dialog. Source: Satish Acharya

Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has been signaling his intent to apply tariffs on India's exports repeatedly. Trump has been singling out India as a country with the highest tariffs it applies on exports from the US.

Indian cartoonist Satish Acharya published a caricature of Modi-Trump conversation portraying Modi's ignorance or pretense of ignorance of what Trump said to him. The cartoon shows Modi thinking Trump was heaping "taarif" (praise) on him when in fact Trump was threatening to impose high tariffs on India. As an aside, tariff originates from the Arabic word "taʿrīf" (تعريف), which means "notification," "definition," or "announcement". This term probably entered the European lexicon through interactions between Arabic-speaking merchants and European traders in the medieval Mediterranean region.

Cartoons aside, it's clear that Mr. Modi failed to take the Trump tariff threat seriously, and Indian negotiators dragged their feet hoping that Mr. Trump would flinch. Meanwhile, India's supporters in Washington continued to argue for a US policy of "strategic altruism" toward India that has characterized US-India ties since the beginning of the 21st century.

In a 2019 piece titled "The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia" published in Foreign Affairs journal, authors Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis argued that the Trump Administration should continue this US policy of "strategic altruism" with India that began with US-India nuclear agreement. They asked President Trump to ignore the fact that the US companies and economy have only marginally benefited, if at all, from this policy. They saw India as a "superpower in waiting" and urged Washington to focus on the goal of having India as an ally to check China's rise. They see Chinese support for India's arch-rival Pakistan and China’s growing weight in South Asia and beyond as a threat to India.

At the same time, Mr. Modi has suffered from delusions of personal rapport with Mr. Trump, describing him as "my friend Dolund Trump" at mass rallies in India. Modi and his supporters in Washington should have heeded the advice of Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani. "One hard truth that Indians have to contend with is that America has also had difficulty treating India with respect", wrote the Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani in his latest book "Has China Won?". "If America wants to develop a close long-term relationship with India over the long run, it needs to confront the deep roots of its relative lack of respect for India", adds Ambassador Mahbubani. It's not just Mahbubani who suspects the United States leadership does not respect India. Others, including former President Bill Clinton, current US President Donald Trump, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and CNN GPS host Fareed Zakaria have expressed similar sentiments.

President Trump has rejected all pleas from pro-India analysts for special treatment of New Delhi. Prior to his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House in February this year, the US president described India as the "worst abuser of tariffs" and announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian imports to the United States. At the same time, Mr. Trump cracked down on both legal and illegal immigration from India. His administration is deporting thousands of illegal Indian immigrants in handcuffs and shackles on US military aircraft. Meanwhile, stringent new regulations on temporary work visas could significantly delay visa processing times and reduce the number of Indian workers employed in the United States on H1B visas.

Related Links:

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Pakistan Ranked Among Top Donors to UN's World Food Program

The United Nations World Food Program has ranked Pakistan fourth among donor countries and sixth overall in 2024. Among the largest 15 donors worldwide, the United States topped the list with $4.45 billion, followed by Germany ($995 million), the United Kingdom ($610 million), European Union ($593 million), private donors ($335 million), Pakistan ($228 million), South Korea ($203 million), France ($196 million), Sweden ($183 million), Canada ($166 million), Norway ($158 million), Japan ($155 million), UN Central Emergency Fund ($135 million), other UN agencies ($120 million) and Switzerland ($88 million), according to the World Food Program.

Top Donors to World Food Program in 2024. Source: WFP

The World Food Program says that 319 million people in 67 countries are facing acute hunger, and the scale of the current global hunger and malnutrition crisis is massive. "A total of 1.9 million people are in the grips of catastrophic hunger – primarily in Gaza and Sudan but also in pockets of South Sudan, Haiti and Mali. They are teetering on the brink of famine. In Zamzam camp in northern Sudan, famine has been confirmed. Many food crises involve multiple overlapping issues that are building year on year".

Pakistan, being a generous nation and ranked among the top 10 food producing countries, feels a special responsibility to step up and feed as many hungry people as possible. Pakistan is a major global food producer, particularly in several key areas. It ranks among the top ten countries in the world for the production of wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, mangoes, dates, and kinnow oranges. It also produces large quantities of cereals, meat, milk, fruits, and vegetables. Specifically, Pakistan is the 8th largest producer of wheat and 10th largest producer of rice globally.

World Giving Index has ranked Pakistan among the most generous generations in the past. A Michigan State University (MSU) study of 63 countries found that Pakistanis have higher empathy for others than people in their neighboring countries. Philanthropy is part of the faith for most Pakistanis:

"Righteousness is not that ye turn your faces towards the east or the west, but righteousness is, one who believes in God, and the last day, and the angels, and the Book, and the prophets, and who gives wealth for His love to kindred, and orphans, and the poor, and the son of the road, beggars, and those in captivity; and who is steadfast in prayers, and gives alms." Quran 2:177

Pakistan Sets New Record For Rice Exports

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, July 28, 2025

Can Pakistan Balance Close China Ties With its US Relationship?

Pakistani civilian and military leaders have recently met with top leaders from China and the US. While Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Pakistan's military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has had lunch with President Donald Trump and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during July, 2025. “Our foreign policy is not a zero-sum game,” Dar said at a presentation to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington DC. “We hope to see friendly relations between the US and China and do not wish to embroil in bloc politics.” Pakistan's close ties to both the US and China go back to the 1960s at the height of the Cold War. It was Pakistan which helped arrange the first China-US dialogue in July 1971 when the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew from Pakistan to China to hold the first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders.

With increasing US-China rivalry on the world stage today, can Pakistan still maintain close ties with both Beijing and Washington at the same time? President Trump's remarks at a recent Philippines-US summit offer clues to answering this puzzle.

Responding to questions at the White House last week, visiting Filipino President Marcos said "there's no need to balance the relationship between the US and China" and that his "strongest partner has always been the US." President Trump immediately rebuked him, saying he "doesn't mind if [Marcos] gets along with China because we're getting along with China very well," and told Marcos that getting along with China is "doing what's right for his country," would "make the Philippines great again" and "wouldn't bother me at all."

It seems that Secretary Rubio has reconciled himself with the inevitability of China's rise. In February 2025, Rubio told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News: “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”.

Talking about the US interest in South Asia, American Professor John Mearsheimer told India's CNN-News18 in May this year: "When it comes to countering China, India is the most important country for the US in South Asia. But the US also wants to maintain good relations with Pakistan to try to peel it away from China".

Speaking to an Indian YouTube channel "The Federal" after what India called its "Operation Sindoor", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot talked of Indian expectations "which are completely unrealistic, a fight to the finish with a nuclear power (Pakistan). What does that mean do you think you can really break Pakistan create an an independent Balochistan this is complete fantasy and of course when you foster this sense of fantasy by being almost belligerent and also there is this sense of hysteria that that the that the media are of course also cultivating when you expect so much you can only be disappointed and and this is really um counterproductive for the BJP to play that game because they are bound to create expectations they will never meet".

Here's a good summation of the aftermath of "Operation Sindoor" as seen by a veteran Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar: "The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership. Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbors no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life".

Pakistan military's remarkable performance against its much larger rival India has significantly raised Pakistan's geopolitical profile in the eyes of the international community. Islamabad's ties with Beijing and Washington have significantly strengthened. The country has been elected President of the UN Security Council and Chair of the UN Security Council Taliban Sanctions Committee (1988 Committee): This committee oversees the implementation of sanctions measures against the Taliban. Pakistan is also Vice-Chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC): The CTC monitors the implementation of resolution 1373, which outlines state obligations to counter terrorism.

Related Links: