The World Bank researchers have recently concluded that 88 per cent live in urban areas. Their conclusion is based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology. The official Pakistani figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the current level of urbanization at 39%. The source of this massive discrepancy is the government's reliance on administrative boundaries rather than population density and settlement patterns, according to the World Bank working research paper titled "When Does a Village Become a Town?".
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| Urbanization in Pakistan. Source: World Bank |
Urban areas are characterized by high population density, while rural areas are sparsely populated with more open space. Major differences include urban areas having more commercial development, diverse job opportunities, and a faster pace of life, while rural areas often focus on agriculture and have a slower pace of life with closer-knit communities but may face challenges with limited access to services.
The World Bank’s Paper suggests that secondary cities and peri-urban areas — rather than megacities — are the primary drivers of recent urban expansion which are systematically overlooked in official Pakistani classifications. This discrepancy between functional and administrative classifications has significant fiscal and planning implications.
Pakistan's official data grossly underestimates urbanization, with Islamabad showing only 47% urban population compared to 90% under the DoU, while figures in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh are more closely aligned. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the DoU estimates the urban population at nearly three times the official 15%, while Islamabad is mostly dense urban, and other provinces show mixed suburban and peri-urban growth. The report finds that Pakistan’s urban landscape has transformed dramatically over the past two decades. Since the early 2000s, a growing share of the rural population has left agriculture, transforming previously rural settlements into new and vibrant urban centers. Unlike Afghanistan, India and sub-Saharan Africa, the agriculture sector is no longer the top employer in Pakistan. Services sector is now the top employment sector in the country.
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| Top Employment Sector in Each Country. Source: Visual Capitalist |
The policy research paper finds that misclassified areas reduce property tax revenues and undermine the planning and provision of critical public services. It also distorts spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy.
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| Urbanization Comparison of Developing Nations Based on DoU Method |
The DoU method facilitates cross-national comparisons, as it provides a consistent criteria. Application of the DoU reveals that, despite variation across urban typologies, the proportion of the population residing in urban areas exceeds 70 percent in all examined countries. The list (fig 2) includes Brazil and Pakistan (98% each). Bangladesh (79%), Egypt (83%), India (77%) and Mexico (82%).
The paper finds that Pakistan is among only a minority of countries that use purely administrative definitions to identify urban areas. Changing how the country determines urban areas to include population density, service access, and other urban characteristics will allow it, as the DoU shows, to account for a varied urban landscape. Recognizing the existence of areas between dense cities and rural villages can help to establish a staggered expansion of the areas subject to property taxes. Updating the urban classification could increase property taxes sevenfold, and new technologies can help modernize cadaster systems. Besides supporting the reclassification of what areas are urban, satellite data offers additional possibilities to identify properties and update the cadasters.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
South Asia Investor Review
Pakistanis Happier Than Neighbors
Tipping Point: Pakistan Middle Class Grows to 55% of the Population
Karachi Safety Ranking Rising
Urbanization in Pakistan Highest in South Asia
Agriculture Sector in Pakistan
Karachi is World's Fastest Growing Megacity
Karachi's Human Development Index
Pakistan Rising or Failing: Reality vs Perception
Pakistan's Trillion Dollar Economy Among top 25
CPEC Myths and Facts
24 comments:
I like how you put India in the same league as Afghanistan and sub-Saharan Africa here, but just so you know, these are some of the things India's rural "sub-Saharan" economy makes these days.
https://youtu.be/xz6StVd0c6k?si=KTbCitako_gYmZA4
https://youtu.be/oOo9XpL0i3I?si=iI4vfR1nPjxgqUTO
India Economic Survey 2025: Employment increased in agriculture sector, decreased in manufacturing and services
The government had said in last year’s Economic Survey that an average of 7.85 million non-farm jobs would need to be created annually by 2030 to productively engage the growing working population
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/agriculture/economic-survey-2025-employment-increased-in-agriculture-sector-decreased-in-manufacturing-and-services#:~:text=Economic%20Survey%202025:%20Rise%20in,engage%20its%20growing%20working%20population.
Even though the Economic Survey 2024-25 has presented a bright picture of employment, it has proved that the government has been unable to shift employment from agriculture to other sectors by talking about employment decline in the services and construction sectors and rise in agricultural jobs.
The government had said in the Economic Survey 2023-24 that the Indian economy would need to create an average of 7.85 million non-farm jobs annually by 2030 to productively engage its growing working population.
This means that India needs to remove about 3.5 million people from agriculture every year and create 7.85 million jobs in non-agricultural sectors to achieve the transition from agricultural to non-agricultural employment.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 shows that the government has not been able to shift people from the agriculture sector to services or manufacturing. The Economic Survey says that the agriculture sector still remains the leader in employment. Its share in employment was 44.1 per cent in 2017-18, which has increased to 46.1 per cent in 2023-24. That means, during the last six years, dependence on agriculture for employment has increased by two per cent. In 2023, 45.8 per cent of employment was in the agriculture sector.
This figure shows that apart from agriculture, other sectors are not successful in generating employment. The Economic Survey 2024-25 also says that the share of industry and services sector in employment has seen a decline.
The survey document, quoting the report of the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24, said the share of the manufacturing sector in providing employment in 2023-24 declined from 12.1 per cent to 11.4 per cent and the share of the services sector decreased from 31.1 per cent to 29.7 per cent, in comparison to 2017-18.
Narendra Modi Will Leave Behind a Broken India
By Sudhanshu Tripathi
https://intpolicydigest.org/narendra-modi-will-leave-behind-a-broken-india/
As India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi nears the end of what is likely to be his final term in office, a reckoning feels inevitable. After three terms marked by grand ambition, partisan dominance, and polarizing governance, Modi’s legacy is poised for intense scrutiny—not merely by political opponents, but by history itself.
Modi came to power promising transformation. Yet many of the most pressing challenges facing India today—economic stagnation, diplomatic friction, rising authoritarianism, and domestic unrest—have been exacerbated, not alleviated, under his leadership. India’s aspiration to reclaim its ancient stature as a Vishwaguru, a moral and civilizational leader on the world stage, now rings hollow in the cacophony of recent failures. The 2025 India-Pakistan war, China’s continued border incursions, and a visible lack of international solidarity during crises like Operation Sindoor all underscore a profound gap between rhetoric and geopolitical reality.
What began as a focused, energetic premiership has veered into an era of dysfunction. Modi’s weakening grip on foreign policy—manifested in frayed relations with key powers such as the U.S., UK, France, and Canada—reflects a broader loss of strategic coherence. The dream of elevating India into a global powerhouse has suffered repeated blows, not least from the absence of robust international alliances during moments of crisis. Instead, Modi’s leadership has appeared increasingly reactive, hamstrung by age, fatigue, and the consequences of wielding unchecked authority in a political landscape drained of serious opposition.
Domestically, his government faces mounting accusations of cronyism, corruption, and a willingness to sacrifice institutional integrity for political gain. From shielding BJP politicians accused of sexual assault—like Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh—to fostering a culture of impunity through the misuse of central investigative agencies, the Modi government has frequently weaponized the machinery of governance against its critics while turning a blind eye to wrongdoing within its ranks.
Nowhere is this institutional corrosion more visible than in the collapse of public trust in law enforcement and the judiciary. The ethnic violence in Manipur, for instance, spiraled into chaos without even a symbolic visit from the prime minister. Nor did he make a serious effort to restore confidence in security forces or engage with the humanitarian disaster on the ground.
Meanwhile, the BJP has mastered a kind of transactional politics that rewards defection. Politicians facing corruption charges have found themselves absolved the moment they pledge loyalty to the ruling party. Ajit Pawar, Chhagan Bhujbal, and others have undergone near-miraculous moral rehabilitations after joining the BJP—an alchemy that mocks the idea of justice and deepens public cynicism.
The health of India’s democracy itself appears to be faltering. The wholesale suspension of opposition MPs from Parliament to avoid uncomfortable debates amounts to a betrayal of democratic norms. When dissent is silenced and meaningful scrutiny is replaced by spectacle, it’s not just the opposition that suffers—it’s the republic as a whole.
Though I agree with the Modi-centric criticism in the article above as regards to his brand of hate-driven politics, authoritarianism, the absence of economic growth that matches the manufactured hype and rhetoric etc, I find it strange for a Pakistani to highlight these considering the far more dismal state of Pakistan itself on these very matters.
On the one hand, Pakistan's economy is still essentially on a life support in the form of IMF bailouts with an external debt that is 5 times its forex reserves, while the ruling class continues to chase magic bullets and geopolitical rents rather than real economic reforms.
"Manias and magic bullets" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1956193/manias-and-magic-bullets
"Lighting the way" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1944466/lighting-the-way
"Withering geoeconomics" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1949239/withering-geoeconomics
"Living with dysfunction" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954784/living-with-dysfunction
On the other hand, with the recent passing of the 27th amendment, the anointment of the 'Field Marshal' as the "Chief of Defense Forces" and the effective formalization of the Army's overlordship over the other two services there is now not even a shred of pretence about who is really in charge of the country. Not to mention how the last remaining pillars of judicial independence in Pakistan has seemingly been knocked down with the new judicial "reforms" that came as part of the amendment as well.
"Dismantling Justice: A Full-Frontal Assault on the Rule of Law" - International Commission of Jurists
https://www.icj.org/pakistan-dismantling-justice-a-full-frontal-assault-on-the-rule-of-law/
"Killing the Constitution" - Zahid Hussain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954621
"Analysis: One chief to rule all military services" - Baqir Sajjad Syed
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954032
"Silence or surrender: The 27th Amendment and the unmaking of justice" - Waqas Ahmed
https://www.dawn.com/news/1953885
"Notable lawyers, citizens laud judges who resigned in wake of 27th Amendment"
https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1959547
"27th Amendment: The end of an era" - Zainab Shahid
https://www.dawn.com/news/1955038
"State and its pillars" - Arifa Noor
https://www.dawn.com/news/1955789/state-and-its-pillars
Wow! Much different than commonly believed!!
I need to read the World Bank report.
Google AI Overview:
Approximately 80% of Americans live in urban areas, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This figure has increased over time, and the Census Bureau defines "urban" as densely developed territory with residential, commercial, and other non-residential land uses.
Definition: An urban area is a densely developed territory with at least 2,000 housing units and a population of at least 5,000 people.
Data source: This 80% statistic comes from the 2020 census data and was reconfirmed in 2022.
Comparison: The remaining 20% of the U.S. population lives in rural areas.
Rashid: "Much different than commonly believed!! I need to read the World Bank report"
The discrepancy in figures comes from differences in definition and methodology. Pakistani government uses strict administrative boundaries while the World Bank prefers Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology.
Urban areas are characterized by high population density, while rural areas are sparsely populated with more open space. Major differences include urban areas having more commercial development, diverse job opportunities, and a faster pace of life, while rural areas often focus on agriculture and have a slower pace of life with closer-knit communities but may face challenges with limited access to services.
What comprises of the services sector. I was in karachi from 21-23 and saw rural migration to cities but there is a huge lack of assistance / enablement of the rural population to find jobs in urban areas. I’d question what urbanisation has been defined. Yes villages are more like really small cities with schools, mosques a row or two of shops where most of the stuff is available.
There’s a huge undocumented services economy which offers job opportunities in urban and peri-urban areas close to big cities in Pakistan. Cooking, cleaning, roadside restaurants/cafes, small retail stores and a variety of repair shops all have jobs that are filled by newcomers from villages. Some of them later move into the organized sector after a few years doing odd jobs in the informal economy.
Vineeth, yawning.
G. Ali
@G Ali, why would I be interested in your yawning, sir?
Vineeth, I was yawning because your reply was boring. You may not be a sanghi but you are all cut from the same cloth, you all have same agenda and same response.
Btw, why is it that anything positive about Pakistan or negative about India annoys you all? Why so insecure?
G. Ali
@G Ali, why would it matter to me if you find my reply "boring"? There is nothing I can do about it. Besides, the reply wasn't meant for you, but to Riaz Sahab who posted the contents of a long article above about India's economic challenges and slide in democratic values (which I suppose you didn't find "boring"). I replied saying that it doesn't actually make sense for a Pakistani to highlight these since the Pakistani economy and its "democracy" is faring far worse than India's at the moment, with added links to articles from Pakistani media itself to substantiate my point.
To emphasize, I was neither "annoyed" nor "insecure" about anything here, but was just saying that objectively it doesn't make any sense for somone who is stuck neck-deep in mud to poke fun at someone waist-deep. And as for your statement that I am "cut from the same cloth" as the "sanghis", if you mean my nationality you are right. On the other hand if you meant my views or politics, you are mistaken.
There you go again, long irrelevant rambling. Doesn't matter what you say, you are insecure else there was not need to over react because of just one sentence.
Didn't read the rest.
G. Ali
Sizwe SikaMusi
@SizweLo
Martha Nussbaum: Indians know how to pass exams, not how to think critically. They are not taught to think for themselves.
https://x.com/SizweLo/status/1999029470595051995?s=20
American philosopher Martha Nussbaum’s critique of Indian education
https://youtube.com/shorts/ZgNL8QCFh0I?si=zHJ3e9M17_XJT2Zn
Martha Nussbaum's critique of Indian education centers on its excessive focus on exams and technical skills (like IITs/IIMs) at the expense of critical thinking, imagination, and humanities, which she argues stunts democratic values, fosters rote learning, and hinders true civic development, pointing to underdevelopment of reasoning, especially in Gujarat, as a prime example of this damaging trend. She advocates for a liberal arts approach that cultivates empathy, global citizenship, and the ability to question, moving beyond mere economic utility to build a more just world.
Key Criticisms:
Rote Learning Over Thinking: Students are "stuffed with facts" for exams rather than taught to think independently or question authority, creating docile citizens rather than active participants.
Bias Towards STEM/Profit: An overemphasis on careers in engineering (IITs) and management (IIMs) devalues arts and humanities, neglecting crucial skills for a healthy democracy.
Undermining Democracy: This narrow focus hinders the development of critical journalism, public debate, and the imagination needed to understand diverse perspectives, which are vital for democracy.
Example of Gujarat: She cited Gujarat's education system as a case where rote learning correlated with underdeveloped critical thinking and increased religious violence, highlighting the social cost.
Nussbaum's Vision for Indian Education:
Cultivate the "Socratic Citizen": Education should foster questioning, self-reflection, and respectful public criticism.
Promote Narrative Imagination: Students need to understand others' stories and experiences (sympathy) to build a more compassionate society.
Value the Humanities: Arts, literature, and philosophy are essential for creating a world worth living in, not just for economic growth.
In essence, Nussbaum sees Indian education as prioritizing technical skills for the market over the humanistic qualities needed for a thriving, just democracy, a trend she believes threatens the nation's future.
If you'd like to explore her specific proposals for integrating the humanities and fostering global citizenship in India, I can provide those details.
@G Ali aka @Zamir, I did not "overreact". I merely answered your question. Can't help if you find it "long irrelevant rambling" once again. Doesn't matter if you read it or not.
And no, I'm not "insecure" about anything here. Thank you.
"Martha Nussbaum: Indians know how to pass exams, not how to think critically. They are not taught to think for themselves."
Wouldn't disagree with that. India's education system even at its best private schools and colleges is deeply flawed. My brother who works as a Professor in one of the IITs has said the same based on his experience with Western universities.
But I guess it is a common problem seen across the subcontinent, or perhaps even the developing world at large. I mean, Pakistan wouldn't be stuck where it is now had its education system been better than India's, isn't it?
- "Martha Nussbaum's critique of Indian education centers on its excessive focus on exams and technical skills (like IITs/IIMs) at the expense of critical thinking, imagination, and humanities, which she argues stunts democratic values, fosters rote learning, and hinders true civic development.. She advocates for a liberal arts approach that cultivates empathy, global citizenship, and the ability to question, moving beyond mere economic utility to build a more just world."
I have no clue about Gujarat's educational system as there are linguistic differences as well as state-level variation in standards across the country, so can't comment on that. Humanities have their own place in an education system, and so does technical skills. But I agree that humanities and core science streams are badly neglected in comparison to the technical streams in India's educational system. Also, more often than not, parents push their kids to become an engineer or a doctor due to peer pressure rather than helping them pursue their own career inclinations and interests. I guess its a similar case in Pakistan as well, but only a Pakistani can confirm.
That said, I wonder what her opinion would be of China's and South Korea's fiercely competitive educational systems. Have Gaokao or Suneung which too have been accused of robotic rote-learning actually given the Chinese or South Koreans the ability to question and empathize?
"Chinese schools 'robbing young of individuality'
"
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-34605430
"Chief of S Korea's high-stakes exam quits over 'insane' English test"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3w792x0ggyo
Raza Ahmad Rumi
@Razarumi
Critical thinking is shaped through writing. In my classes, writing is mandatory and continuous—paired with disciplined reading. Writing sharpens thought, arguments, and turns reading into analysis. There’s no shortcut to learning how to think clearly.
https://x.com/Razarumi/status/1999571493668229353?s=20
Vineeth, in the whole article India was mentioned only twice and you reacted. Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that is called insecurity.
G. Ali
@G Ali,
Yes, but I fail to see what was wrong with that, or why my replies irked you so much (more so, since those replies weren't directed at you). I was quite amused by a statement in the original writeup that insinuated that the Indian economy was less developed than Pakistan's and in the same league as that of Afghanistan and sub-Saharan Africa. I replied quoting a couple of examples to point out how such a comparison is misleading and how the Indian manufacturing economy is far more developed than Pakistan's.
My second reply was in response to another quoted article about India's economic slowdown and state of its democracy - which again didn't make sense for a Pakistani to highlight since Pakistan itself is faring far worse than India on both counts.
And may I say that you clearly "overreacted" to both? So, who is feeling "insecure" here?
AI Overview
Ashis Nandy's Predicament and Ours | KAFILA – COLLECTIVE ...
Ashis Nandy, a prominent Indian political psychologist and theorist, extensively analyzes the complex, intertwined relationship between India and Pakistan, viewing their conflict less through geopolitics and more through shared, mythologized histories, particularly focusing on the psychological impact of the 1947 Partition and the creation of a "fantastic Pakistan" in Indian imagination. He argues that India's self-identity is deeply linked to this imagined Pakistan, a bond reinforced by colonial legacies and shared cultural complexities, leading to persistent conflict and a "splintered self" for many South Asians, where identities are layered and contradictory.
Key Themes in Nandy's Work on India-Pakistan:
The Myth of Pakistan: Nandy posits that Pakistan isn't just a nation but a powerful myth in India, shaping national identity and public life, even when it contradicts reality.
Colonial Legacies: He explores how British colonial policies, particularly arbitrary borders and the imposition of Western ideas, created enduring conflicts and complex identities in both nations, as seen in his work on partitioned consciousness.
Psychology of Violence & Partition: Drawing from his clinical psychology background, Nandy examines the trauma of Partition, focusing on how individuals and societies cope with mass violence and find resources to confront it, often finding strength within cultural traditions rather than solely through external analysis.
Shared, Splintered Identities: He highlights that Indians and Pakistanis, due to shared histories, possess complex, multi-layered identities, often comfortable with internal contradictions, a stark contrast to more homogenous national narratives.
Critique of Modernity & Nationalism: Nandy questions modern nation-states and nationalism, suggesting they often fail to capture the nuanced realities of diverse societies like India and Pakistan, leading to conflict and distorted self-perceptions.
In essence, Nandy's perspective moves beyond typical political analyses to delve into the deep psychological and cultural roots of the India-Pakistan dynamic, revealing how shared histories and constructed myths fuel their ongoing relationship.
Vineeth, so two mentions of India and you went on a verbal rampage but when I reply it is because I am irked?
You have some sense of humor.
G. Ali
@SushantSin
But middle class is getting low inflation.
https://x.com/sushantsin/status/2004783966528962574?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
———-
Floods, low crop prices leave Indian farmers under stress
Market prices of key crops fell below MSP, squeezing farmer incomes severely across regions
https://www.livemint.com/economy/india-farmers-agrarian-distress-minimum-support-price-msp-agricultural-economy-monsoon-grains-pulses-oilseeds-11765508045260.html
India struggled to protect farmers as the country’s agrarian distress worsened in 2025. Severe monsoon rains caused devastating floods in Punjab, inundating 200,000 hectares of farmland, besides damaging crops in Haryana and Maharashtra, notably the Marathwada region. As a result, farmers faced a loss of income and soil damage and sought better compensation and long-term support.
If that was not enough, lower market prices for their produce further eroded their income. Prices for several key commodities slipped below the minimum support price (MSP), at which the government procures produce from farmers. While the broader macroeconomic environment benefited from low food inflation, the decline in farmgate prices raised serious concerns about rural incomes and the overall stability of the agricultural economy.
Low inflation can adversely affect rural incomes if farmers are forced to sell below the benchmark procurement price. The prices of grains, most pulses and oil seeds such as soybean, groundnut and sunflower are currently below their MSP.
Deflation in wholesale crop prices pulled consumer inflation down to a record low of 0.25% in October (year on year). Food prices, which account for about 40% of the consumer basket, fell 5% from a dip of 2.3% in September. The development assumes significance given that about 42% of India’s 1.4 billion population depends on agriculture for livelihood. The sector accounted for 18% of India's GDP in FY24.
The Centre is working on a contingency plan to prevent distress sales during the procurement season, when crop prices slipped below MSP in many states, Mint reported on 24 October.
Officials from the agriculture ministry, department of food and public distribution and Niti Aayog discussed raising procurement to protect farmer incomes, following the steep disinflation in pulses and oilseeds prices this year, which came after a surge in FY24. Besides assured procurement at MSP, the plan was to include supportive measures like facilitating export of produce to overseas markets and covering part of the losses due to the price slump.
Taking a step in this direction, the government, under the pulses mission, announced 100% procurement of tur, urad and masoor at MSP for four years. The prime minister launched the Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses (FY26 to FY31) with a budgetary allocation of ₹11,440 crore
on 11 October. It aims to ensure 100% procurement of these pulses at MSP, besides increasing their cultivation area and production.
The government approved continuation of the Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhiyan (PM-AASHA) to FY26. The scheme enables procurement of oilseeds at MSP by central agencies including the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd. (Nafed) and the National Cooperative Consumers' Federation of India Ltd (NCCF).
Analysts are of the view that with enhanced procurement and bufferstock building, the government is taking steps to prevent distress sales. However, these are still not sufficient.
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