Agriculture: A Rare Bright Spot in Pakistan's Economy

Pakistan's agriculture sector grew 6.3% in 2023-24, far outpacing the overall economy that grew just 2.38%, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24.  This is good news for about 40% of the country's population working in the agriculture sector. By contrast, India's agriculture growth slowed to 1.2% in recent quarters. Studies have shown that strong growth in agriculture helps reduce poverty in developing nations like India and Pakistan. 

Snapshot of Pakistan's Economy. Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24

The agriculture growth in Pakistan was the highest in 19 years. All major crops saw significant increases. Wheat output jumped 11.6% from 28.2 million tons last year to 31.4 million tons this year, the economic survey said. Cotton, severely damaged by floods and rains last year, reached 10.2 million bales compared to 4.9 million bales last year, growing by 108.2%. Rice output also saw a significant increase — up by 34.8% — reaching 9.9 million tons compared to 7.3 million tons. 

Strong crop output is in part the result of higher yields from increased water and fertilizer availability to farmers, according to the economic survey. 

The survey said the water availability during Kharif 2023 increased to 61.9 million acre-feet (MAF) from 43.3 MAF in Kharif 2022 (when the floods hit). For Rabi 2023-24, the water availability was 30.6 MAF, showing an increase of 4.1% over Rabi 2022-23.

Domestic fertilizer production during FY24 (July-March) rose by 17.3% to 3.25 million tons compared to 2.77 million tons in the same period of FY23. Fertilizer imports also increased by 23.7%, reaching 524,000 ton­s. The availability of fertilizer increased by 18.1% to 3.77 million tons. 

Pakistan's Rice Exports Soared 80% in Current Fiscal Year. Source: FT

The value of Pakistan’s rice exports soared to $3.6 billion over the last 11 months, up from $2 billion in July to May 2022-23. Its previous record for was 4.8 million metric tons of rice exports, valued at about $2.5 billion in 2021-22, according to the Financial Times. 

Pakistan is among the world's largest food producing countries. It produces large and growing quantities of cereals, meat, milk, fruits and vegetables. Currently, Pakistan produces about 38 million tons of cereals (mainly wheat, rice and corn), 17 million tons of fruits and vegetables, 70 million tons of sugarcane, 60 million tons of milk and 4.5 million tons of meat.  Total value of the nation's agricultural output exceeds $70 billion.  Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help the farm sector become much more productive to serve both domestic and export markets.  

Agriculture is considered a key tool for reducing poverty in developing countries like Pakistan. It employs almost half of the rural workforce, contributes around 20% to the country's GDP, and provides raw materials for agro-based industries, according to a study by Yaping Liu, Asad Amin, Samma Faiz Rasool, and Qamar Uz Zaman.  However, some studies suggest that agriculture may only help mitigate rural poverty in the long term, while other sources say that sustainable agriculture practices can significantly improve agricultural production and reduce poverty.

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Pakistan Tops South Asia in Agriculture Value Addition

While Pakistan has lagged in South Asia region in manufacturing value addition, the country enjoys a significant lead in agriculture value addition over Bangladesh and India.  Livestock revolution and increasing farm mechanization have enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes since 1980s. There is rising tractor ownership and growing economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India. However, Pakistan still gets less crop per drop than India which means there is significant opportunity for water saving.

Agriculture Value Addition. Courtesy: Dr. Krishna Prasad Pant

Agriculture Value Addition:

As of 2014, the agriculture value addition in Pakistan is estimated at $1,050 per worker, significantly higher than $700 per worker in India and $600 per person in Bangladesh., according to the World Bank data as reported by Dr. Krishna Pradad Pant in Agriculture Investment in his paper titled "South Asia:trends, opportunities and challenges". 

Agriculture Value Addition. Courtesy: Dr. Krishna Prasad Pant

Adding value is the process of changing or transforming a product from its original state to a more valuable state, according to Professor Mike Boland of Kansas State University. The professor explains how it applies to agriculture as follows:

"Many raw commodities have intrinsic value in their original state. For example, field corn grown, harvested and stored on a farm and then fed to livestock on that farm has value. In fact, value usually is added by feeding it to an animal, which transforms the corn into animal protein or meat. The value of a changed product is added value, such as processing wheat into flour. It is important to identify the value-added activities that will support the necessary investment in research, processing and marketing. The application of biotechnology, the engineering of food from raw products to the consumers and the restructuring of the distribution system to and from the producer all provide opportunities for adding value."

Tractor Ownership:

Agriculture mechanization is measured in terms of tractor ownership in horsepower per hectare of cultivated land. It has grown in Pakistan from 1.02 hp per hectare in 1992 to 1.5 hp/ha in 2015,  according to a paper titled "In Pakistan, Agriculture Mechanization Status" by Muhammad Aamir Iqbal. It is still significantly lower than India's 2.50, China's 3.88 and Japan's 7.0.      

Pakistan's tractor market is growing. In 2017, over 60,000 tractors were sold. Production capacity stands at 70,000 units per annum and models range from 55 to 85hp, according to a report in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.  Since the launch of the indigenization program initiated in the eighties by the Pakistan Tractor Corporation, the industry has achieved 95% localization in terms of production.

Crop Per Drop:

Data on irrigation efficiency in Pakistan highlights significant opportunities for saving water.

In an average rainfall year, the water productivity for wheat in Pakistan (0.76 kg/m3) is 24% less than the global average (~1.0 kg/m3), according to Water Watch . During the drought of 2001- 02, water productivities were at the same level as the global average. Hence, drought results in a more efficient utilization of water resources by wheat crops grown in the rabi (the dry winter season).

Water Watch found that rice yield in Pakistani Punjab is on-average 24% higher than in Sindh. The water productivity of rice (0.45 kg/m3) is 55% below the average value for rice in Asia (~1.0 kg.m3). Contrary to wheat, the water productivity of rice decreased during the 2001 drought, because rice is sensitive to water stress and to salinity that is intensified through increased groundwater withdrawals.

Crop Yield Comparison. Source: Kleffman Group

Pakistan lags India in water productivity. Crop yields show distinct North-South and East-West variations: wheat yields in the Indian Punjab average 29% higher than in the Pakistani Punjab to the west, and wheat yields in the Pakistani Punjab are 33% higher than in the Pakistani Sindh to the south. These spatial patterns of wheat yield are similar for 1984-85 and 2001- 02. Because crop evapotranspiration in the Pakistani Punjab and Indian Punjab are similar, the difference in crop yields between these two regions is also responsible for the difference in water productivity values. This important conclusion implies that increased water productivity can only be achieved by increased crop yields. Experiments of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council across the country (n=41) have indicated that the overall yield of wheat can be increased by 54%, provided that inputs are optimal. Improved management of water quality (groundwater and canal water) and evacuation of drainage water are important components for improving agricultural production. Seed quality, fertilizers, and pesticide control should also be improved. 

Summary: 

While Pakistan has lagged in South Asia region in manufacturing value addition, the country enjoys a significant lead in agriculture value addition over Bangladesh and India.  Livestock revolution and increasing farm mechanization have enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes since 1980s. There is rising tractor ownership and growing economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India. Pakistan still gets less crop per drop than India which means there is significant opportunity for water saving.

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Bumper Crops And Soaring Credit Drive Pakistan's Tractor Sales Boom

First seven months of the current fiscal year have seen tractor sales soar 45% to 38,173 units, according to data of the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. It is driven by a combination of soaring credit availability and bumper harvests of Pakistan's top three crops by area: wheat, cotton and rice.

Tractor Sales:

First seven months of the current fiscal year have seen tractor sales soar 45% to 38,173 units, according to data of the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. This is good news for Pakistan's tractor industry that has been in slump for several years as the agriculture output was stagnant.

Pakistani farmers use tractors for a variety of usual tasks ranging from tilling and planting to harvest and transport. Tractor owners recover their costs from more efficiently working their farms and renting out equipment when they are not in their own use.

Agriculture Credit Growth:

Pakistani banks provided Rs 500 billion (nearly $5 billion) worth of agricultural credit during the first seven months, July-January period, of current fiscal year.  It represents a 45% jump from the same period last year, according to media reports.

According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), commercial banks, specialized banks, Islamic banks, domestic private banks, microfinance banks and other microfinance institutions have together disbursed Rs 499.645 billion during the period under review, up Rs. 351.358 billion in the same period of last fiscal year.

Top Three Crops:

Wheat output is expected to be near all time high of 26 million tons. Cotton production is forecast to exceed 11.5 million bales, up from 10.6 million bales last year.

Source: FAO via Kleffmann Group

Pakistan rice exports have reached 2.59 million tons worth US$ 1.224 billion in the first 7 months, up from 2.27 million tons worth US$.961 Million last year,  recording growth of 27% in value and 14% quantity.

Pakistan ranks among the world's biggest producers of a variety of crops including wheat, cotton, rice, corn, sugarcane, onions, chickpeas and fruits, according to Food and Agriculture Organization Stats (FAOSTAT).

Crops vs Livestock:

Livestock farming contributes 53% while crops make up about 42% of Pakistan's agriculture output. The rest comes from fishing and forestry.

Pakistani livestock sector has growing much faster than the crop sector and more recent estimates show its contribution has increased to 56.3% of the value of agriculture and nearly 11% to the agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP). It's driven by growing domestic demand for meat and dairy products.

Crop Yields:

Pakistan's crop yields are comparable to India, among the lowest in the world, according to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) data.

Source: FAO via Kleffmann Group

World's highest crop yields are seen in Europe while the lowest are in Africa.

Maize, Potato, Rice and Wheat Yields in Hectograms/Hectare. Source: FAOSTAT

Value Added Agriculture: 

Livestock revolution enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes in 1980s. Economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India.

Although Pakistan's value added to agriculture is high for its region, it has been essentially flat since mid-1990s. It also lags significantly behind developing countries in other parts of the world. For example, per capita worker productivity in North Africa and the Middle East is more than twice that of Pakistan while in Latin America it is more than three times higher.

CPEC Long Term Plan:

Beyond the current phase of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) focus on energy and infrastructure projects, there is a long term plan that deals with modernizing Pakistan's agriculture. CPEC LTP outlines a more comprehensive effort involving the entire supply chain from agriculture inputs like  seeds, fertilizer, credit and pesticides to logistics such as storage and transportation systems.

Summary:

Pakistan ranks among the world's top producers of a number of major crops including wheat, cotton and rice. Soaring tractor sales are being driven by a combination of  rising credit availability and bumper harvests of major crops in the country this year. But the farm productivity and yields are still among the lowest in the world. CPEC LTP (long term plan) offers hope of significant improvements in agriculture sector to reach its full potential.

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