Thursday, September 6, 2018

Industrial Development Report: Pakistan's Manufacturing Score Card

Pakistan's manufacturing sector is performing poorly relative to Bangladesh and India, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization 2018 report. UNIDO data shows that Pakistan's per capita manufacturing value added is not only lower than its neighbors' but it's also growing more slowly since 2010.  In fact, Pakistan's manufactured exports per capita have declined in the last decade.

South Asia Manufacturing. Source: UNIDO IDR 2018


Industrial Development Report 2018:

United Nations Industrial Development Organization, also called UNIDO, is a UN agency whose charter is to "promote and accelerate inclusive and sustainable industrial development (ISID) in Member States". It publishes an annual industrial development report that is "an established source of reference on industrial development. Previous editions have been examining the driving forces of industrialization and the positive factors that can lead to social inclusiveness and environmental sustainability. They have examined crucial components of the production side of industrialization, such as capacity building, energy efficiency, employment creation and technological change, to mention just a few."

Here are key data points from IDR 2018 on selected countries, including Pakistan:

Pakistan MVA per capita 2010 $134 2015 $146

Pakistan Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $102 2015 $94

Bangladesh MVA per capita 2010 $122 2015 $182

Bangladesh Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $121 2015 $152

India MVA per capita 2010 $228 2015 $298

India Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $152 2015 $186 

China MVA per capita 2010 $1,432 2015 $2,048

China Manufactured Exports per capita 2010 $1,132 2015 $1,601

Pakistan's Export Performance:

The bulk of Pakistan's exports consist of low value commodities like chadar, chawal and chamra (textiles, rice and leather). These exports have declined from about 15% to about 8% of GDP since 2003. Pakistan's trade deficits are growing at an alarming rate as the imports continue to far outstrip exports. This situation is not sustainable.  What must Pakistan do to improve it? What can Pakistan do to avoid recurring balance of payments crises?  How can Pakistan diversify and grow its exports to reduce the gaping trade gap? How can Pakistan's closest ally China help? Can China invest in export oriented industries and open up its huge market for exports from Pakistan? Let's explore answers to these question. 

Exports as Percentage of GDP. Source: World Bank
East Asia's Experience:

East Asian nations have greatly benefited from major investments made by the United States and Europe in export-oriented industries and increased access to western markets over the last several decades. Asian Tigers started with textiles and then switched to manufacturing higher value added consumer electronics and high tech products. Access to North American and European markets boosted their export earnings and helped them accumulate large foreign exchange reserves that freed them from dependence on the IMF and other international financial institutions. China, too, has been a major beneficiary of these western policies. All have significantly enhanced their living standards.

Chinese Investment and Trade:

Pakistan needs similar investments in export-oriented industries and greater access to major markets. Given the end of the Cold War and changing US alliances, it seems unlikely that the United States would help Pakistan deal with the difficulties it faces today.

China sees Pakistan as a close strategic ally. It is investing heavily in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which includes China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A recent opinion piece by Yao Jing, the Chinese Ambassador in Pakistan, published  in the state-owned China Daily, appears to suggest that China is prepared to offer such help. Here are two key excerpts from the opinion piece titled "A community of shared future with Pakistan":

1. China will actively promote investment in Pakistan. The Chinese government will firmly promote industrial cooperation, expand China's direct investment in Pakistan, and encourage Chinese enterprises to actively participate in the construction of special economic zones. Its focus of cooperation will be upgrading Pakistan's manufacturing capacity and expanding export-oriented industries.

2. China will also actively expand its imports from Pakistan. In November, China will hold the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai, where, as one of the "Chief Guest" countries, Pakistan has been invited to send a large delegation of exporters and set up exhibitions at both the national and export levels. It is hoped that Pakistan will make full use of this opportunity to promote its superior products to China. The Chinese side will also promote cooperation between the customs and quarantine authorities of both countries to facilitate the further opening-up of China's agricultural product market to Pakistan. China will, under the framework of free trade cooperation between the two countries, provide a larger market share for Pakistani goods, and strengthen cooperation and facilitate local trade between Gilgit-Baltistan and China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. And China will take further visa facilitation measures to encourage more Pakistani businesspeople to visit China.

Pakistan's Role:

Pakistan needs to take the Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing's offer to increase Chinese investments and open up China's market for imports from Pakistan.  Pakistan's new government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan should take immediate steps to pursue the Chinese offer. Finance Minister Asad Umar needs to form a high-powered team of top bureaucrats and leading businessmen to develop a comprehensive plan to attract investments in export-oriented industries and diversify and grow exports to China and other countries. Pakistan must make full use of its vast network of overseas diplomatic missions to promote investment and trade. 

Summary:

Pakistan's manufacturing sector is performing poorly relative to Bangladesh and India, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization 2018 report. UNIDO data shows that Pakistan's per capita manufacturing value added is not only lower than its neighbors' but it's also growing more slowly since 2010.  In fact, Pakistan's manufactured exports per capita have declined in the last decade. Pakistan's exports have declined from about 15% of GDP to about 8% since 2003. The nation's trade deficits are growing at an alarming rate as the imports continue to far outstrip exports. This situation is not sustainable. Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing has offered a helping hand to increase Chinese investment and trade in Pakistan.   Pakistan's new government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan should take the Chinese Ambassador's plan seriously. Finance Minister Asad Umar needs to form a high-powered team of top bureaucrats and leading businessmen on a comprehensive plan to attract investments in export-oriented industries and diversify and grow exports to China and other countries.

12 comments:

Faisal S. said...

But I think Pakistani LSM has performed exceptionally during last three fiscal with average 6% annual growth & thus forming a key portion of incremental increase in GDP

Riaz Haq said...

Faisal: " But I think Pakistani LSM has performed exceptionally during last three fiscal with average 6% annual growth & thus forming a key portion of incremental increase in GDP"


I think you're right. The UNIDO report's is based the 2015 manufacturing data. But I don't think #Pakistan's #exports reflect improved domestic #manufacturing output.


Riaz Haq said...

CPEC spurs Pakistan’s industrial growth, up by 5.4% in FY18

https://dailytimes.com.pk/286581/cpec-spurs-pakistans-industrial-growth-up-by-5-4-in-fy18/

The country’s large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector has witnessed growth of 5.38 percent during the fiscal year 2017-18 (FY18) compared to the corresponding period of last year, but, below the government’s FY18 target of 6.3 percent.

LSM grew 3.13 percent in 2015-16, 3.38 percent in 2014-15, 5.39 percent in 2013-14, 4.28 percent in 2012-13 and 5.6 percent in 2016-17.

The factors, according to the central bank, which facilitated LSM growth mainly included increased capacity utilization due to ease in energy supplies; high credit off-take owing to low interest rates; output stimulus in associated industries due to widespread construction activities; and an improved business environment on the back of CPEC related projects and favorable law and order situation.


Construction allied and consumer durable industries registered a notable growth. However, sugar industry was not able to capitalize on record sugarcane production; in stark contrast to last year, when it was the main driver of LSM growth.

The Quantum Index Numbers (QIM) of large scale manufacturing industries was recorded at 147.07 points during July-June 2017-18 against 139.55 points during same period of last year, according to latest data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said industrial production has witnessed the highest growth in the current fiscal year since FY08. The performance can be traced to noteworthy contributions from construction and manufacturing activities. Public sector development program (PSDP) and CPEC related expenditure have had a spillover impact on manufacturing sub-sectors such as steel, cement and automobiles. However, the industry could not achieve the growth target set for FY18 on account of a lower increase in gross value addition (GVA) by electricity generation and gas distribution.

The highest growth of 13.24 percent was witnessed in the indices monitored by Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC) followed by Ministry of Industries with 5.04 percent and the indices of Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBOS) with 4.4800 percent.

On month-on-month basis, the industrial output increased by 0.51 percent in June 2018 compared to June 2017 while it decreased by 8.30 per cent if compared to May 2018.


Meanwhile, the major sectors that showed growth during the said fiscal compared to same period of the previous year, included textile (0.38 percent), food beverages & tobacco (2.78 percent), coke and petroleum products (13.24 percent), pharmaceuticals (2.94 percent), non metallic mineral products (11.04 percent), automobiles (17.78 percent), iron and steel products (21.78 percent), electronics (32.43 per cent), paper and board (9.38 percent), engineering products (7.58 per cent), and rubber products (6.21 percent).

On the other hand, the industries that witnessed negative growth include f, chemicals (0.23 percent), fertilizers (9.88 percent), leather products (0.19 percent), and wood products (37.75 percent).

The provisional QIM is being computed on the basis of the latest production data of 112 items received from sources including Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC), Ministry of Industries and Production (MoIP) and Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBoS). OCAC provides data of 11 items, MoIP of 36 items while PBoS proved data of remaining 65 items.

Riaz Haq said...

50 Auto Factories' Production Improved With JICA Support

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/50-auto-factories-production-improved-with-j-425957.html

Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) has improved production systems of 50 Auto Factories with the support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) has improved production systems of 50 Auto Factories with the support of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

SMEDA Chief Executive Officer Sher Ayub disclosed this here Wednesday while commenting on second term of SMEDA-JICA joint project being run for technical support of auto parts manufacturing industry in Pakistan.

The project, he said, was being conducted in coordination with Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (PAAPAM).

He acknowledged services of the Provincial Chief SMEDA-Sindh Mukesh Kumar to make this project successful in close coordination with PAAPAM.

He said that Auto sector was one of the rapidly growing sectors in Pakistan. Its contribution towards the national economy in the form of technology transfer, employment and revenue generation is visible, he said and pointed out that the sector had a significant room to further improve quality, bring innovation and flexibility of manufacturing system which is being addressed with the support of JICA. He observed that Japan's technical support had helped the local auto parts manufacturers to get prepared for export market by improving quality and productivity of their products, as per world's requirements.

Earlier, at a ceremony held at PAAPAM Office, the SMEDA (Sindh) Provincial Chief Mukesh Kumar gave a briefing on the activities to be conducted under second term of SMEDA-JICA joint project for technical support of Auto sector in the country.

Yoshihisa Onoe - senior representative of JICA Pakistan Office, Hiroshi KANEKI - Chief of JICA Technical Team, Hiroshi SASAKI-Deputy Chief of JICA Team, Ikuta, Ishitaki, Sato (JICA Experts) and Muhammad Ashraf Sheikh, Senior Vice Chairman PAAPAM also spoke on this occasion.

Yoshihisa Onoe-the Senior Representative of JICA, in his address, assured to continue the technical support for Pakistan's industry to compete in the world market in terms of technical know-how and the modern manufacturing techniques.

He acknowledged that JICA's collaboration with SMEDA and PAAPAM had proved to be very useful for the local auto parts' manufacturing industry in Pakistan.

He was glad to note that productivity of the sector had increased to an optimal level, whereas, the rejection rates to be witnessed in the manufacturing processes had reduced to the lowest possible level. He said that the SMEs, engaged in auto parts manufacturing, had a great potential to compete the world market and assured to extend fullest technical support of JICA to impart the best practices being exercised in auto sector of the developed world.

Muhammad Ashraf Sheikh, Senior Vice Chairman (PAAPAM) appreciated SMEDA initiatives to get JICA's technical cooperation for auto parts industry.

He said that PAAPAM members had greatly availed of the assistance to increase their productivity and reduce rejection rates in their manufacturing processes. He urged SMEDA and JICA to continue the program even after completion of the set period.

Anonymous said...

This plan is dead on arrival.

No 'free market' FDI in export oriented industry has ever created a competitive export sector.China also insists on MNCs pairing with a local partner and local sourcing of components.

Let us see the example of India's automobile industry.India exports more automobiles and auto components than China while Pakistan...

Modern Auto industry started with Maruti udyog a JV with 74% ownership of the Indian state,Suzuki owned 26%.

India studied the global car industry and selected on Suzuki as being relatively small and not a Japanese national champion like Toyota,Honda,Nissan would be willing to put up with onerous indigenization conditions.Its a win win India contributes more than 50% of Suzuki worldwide revenue

The new result is India Auto Component manufacturers Elcon,Bharat Forge,Sona Koyo,Sumi Industries etc are now world class and a major export earner having been hand held by MAruti for a decade.

Now when any car maker wants to enter India he can make near 100% of the car including engines,drive train etc in India by simply handing over blueprints to Indian component manufacturers.Everyone from BMW to Fiat does this.

In addition when Tata/Mahindra decided to get into auto manufacturing in the late 90s this industrial base ensured no reinvention of the wheel was required.

Pakistan in contrast went for screw driver assembly of obsolete models by rent seeking companies like Indus Motors.

We can see the difference.






Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "No 'free market' FDI in export oriented industry has ever created a competitive export sector."

I disagree.

I have personally seen how US and Japanese companies invested in Penang, Malaysia in electronics assembly/test plants that created lots of jobs and significantly boosted their exports. This happened all over east and southeast Asia.

Tambi Dude said...

"I have personally seen how US and Japanese companies invested in Penang, Malaysia in electronics assembly/test plants that created lots of jobs and significantly boosted their exports. This happened all over east and southeast Asia."

Could it be that Malaysia and east asian countries opted for it. As Husain Haqqani has pointed out in his book, right from 1947, Pak was interested in arms only.

Riaz Haq said...

TD: " Could it be that Malaysia and east asian countries opted for it. As Husain Haqqani has pointed out in his book, right from 1947, Pak was interested in arms only."

Hussain Haqqani misleads by telling half truths.

Unlike Pakistan, the East Asians did not face an enemy 6X their size that was bent on undoing them.

And the East Asians enjoyed US security guarantees that Pakistan did not have.

The US and the West did invest in Pakistan in the 1960s when Pakistan's development model was taught at Harvard Business School and Koreans came to Pakistan to learn. Then came the 1971 war imposed by India and Bhutto's nationalization that scared away foreign investors.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2014/06/civilian-democracy-vs-military.html

Pakistan was on a similar trajectory as the Asian Tigers during 1960s under Gen Ayub Khan's rule. GDP growth in this decade jumped to an average annual rate of 6 percent from 3 percent in the 1950s, according to Pakistani economist Dr. Ishrat Husain. Dr. Husain says: "The manufacturing sector expanded by 9 percent annually and various new industries were set up. Agriculture grew at a respectable rate of 4 percent with the introduction of Green Revolution technology. Governance improved with a major expansion in the government’s capacity for policy analysis, design and implementation, as well as the far-reaching process of institution building.7 The Pakistani polity evolved from what political scientists called a “soft state” to a “developmental” one that had acquired the semblance of political legitimacy. By 1969, Pakistan’s manufactured exports were higher than the exports of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia combined."

Riaz Haq said...

Livestock revolution enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes in 1980s. Economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2013/11/pakistan-leads-south-asia-in.html

http://sawtee.org/presentations/27-28-dec-2015-2.pdf

Anonymous said...

Water Situation in Pak

The per capita availability of water has decreased from 5650 cubic meters per annum in 1951 to 940 cubic meters in 2015 and by 2020 to 855. (Note: This was in Feb 2015 when it was assumed that Pakistan's population is 190m). Pak is now an absolute water scarcity country. Pak's predominant employment sector is agriculture which is water intensive. More population means more pressure on water.

Pakistan's productivity per unit of water is 0.13kg / cubic meter, which is 1/3 of India and 1/6 of China. It's productivity per unit of land is 1/3 of Egypt and 1/2 of India or Saudi (Source: Economic survey of Pakistan: 2013-14, pg 250).

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "Pakistan's productivity per unit of water is 0.13kg / cubic meter, which is 1/3 of India and 1/6 of China. It's productivity per unit of land is 1/3 of Egypt and 1/2 of India or Saudi (Source: Economic survey of Pakistan: 2013-14, pg 250)"

I'm not sure where they got these figures. Here's what I found in World Bank sponsored research:

http://www.waterwatch.nl/fileadmin/bestanden/Project/Asia/0053_PK_2002_CropWaterProductivity.pdf


Crop yields show distinct North-South and East-West variations: wheat yields in the Indian Punjab average 29% higher than in the Pakistani Punjab to the west, and wheat yields in the Pakistani Punjab are 33% higher than in the Pakistani Sindh to the south. These spatial patterns of wheat yield are similar for 1984-85 and 2001- 02. Because crop evapotranspiration in the Pakistani Punjab and Indian Punjab are similar, the difference in crop yields between these two regions is also responsible for the difference in water productivity values. This important conclusion implies that increased water productivity can only be achieved by increased crop yields. Experiments of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council across the country (n=41) have indicated that the overall yield of wheat can be increased by 54%, provided that inputs are optimal. Improved management of water quality (groundwater and canal water) and evacuation of drainage water are important components for improving agricultural production. Seed quality, fertilizers, and pesticide control should also be improved.

----------------

Water productivity values for wheat in 2001-02 (dry year) were higher due to increased solar radiation, which boosts crop growth when good quality groundwater is sufficiently available. During this 17-year period, yield increases were also due to improvements in farming practices and seed quality. In an average rainfall year, the water productivity for wheat in Pakistan (0.76 kg/m3) is 24% less than the global average (~1.0 kg/m3) and, therefore, can be classified as “moderately acceptable”. During the drought of 2001- 02, water productivities were at the same level as the global average. Hence, drought results in a more efficient utilization of water resources by wheat crops grown in the rabi (the dry winter season). Rice yield in the Punjab is on-average 24% higher than in the Sindh. The water productivity of rice (0.45 kg/m3) is 55% below the average value for rice in Asia (~1.0 kg.m3). Contrary to wheat, the water productivity of rice decreased during the 2001 drought, because rice is sensitive to water stress and to salinity that is intensified through increased tubewell withdrawals.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan's #PTI government led by #ImranKhan plans to review or renegotiate #CPEC agreements with #China. #Chinese FM Wang Yi visiting #Islamabad indicates #Beijing open renegotiating its 2006 trade deal with Pakistan. https://www.ft.com/content/d4a3e7f8-b282-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132

Pakistani ministers and advisers say the country’s new government will review BRI investments and renegotiate a trade agreement signed more than a decade ago that it says unfairly benefits Chinese companies.

The projects concerned are part of the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan — by far the largest and most ambitious part of the BRI, which seeks to connect Asia and Europe along the ancient silk road.

They include a huge expansion of the Gwadar port on Pakistan’s south coast, as well as road and rail links and $30bn worth of power plants.

“The previous government did a bad job negotiating with China on CPEC — they didn’t do their homework correctly and didn’t negotiate correctly so they gave away a lot,” Abdul Razak Dawood, the Pakistani member of cabinet responsible for commerce, textiles, industry and investment, told the Financial Times.

“Chinese companies received tax breaks, many breaks and have an undue advantage in Pakistan; this is one of the things we’re looking at because it’s not fair that Pakistan companies should be disadvantaged,” he said.

Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, who visited Islamabad at the weekend, indicated that Beijing could be open to renegotiating its 2006 trade deal with Pakistan. “CPEC has not inflicted a debt burden on Pakistan,” he told reporters. “When these projects get completed and enter into operation, they will unleash huge economic benefits.”

But Islamabad's second thoughts follow other recent setbacks for BRI, which is seen by many as a bid by China’s President Xi Jinping to extend Beijing’s influence throughout the world. Governments in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and elsewhere have already expressed reservations over the onerous terms of Chinese BRI lending and investment.

Imran Khan, the former cricket star who was elected Pakistan’s prime minister last month, has established a nine-member committee to evaluate CPEC projects. It is scheduled to meet for the first time this week and will “think through CPEC — all of the benefits and the liabilities”, said Mr Dawood, who sits on the new committee.

“I think we should put everything on hold for a year so we can get our act together,” he added. “Perhaps we can stretch CPEC out over another five years or so.”

Several other officials and advisers to the Khan government concurred that extending the terms of CPEC loans and spreading projects out over a longer timeframe was the preferred option, rather than outright cancellation.

Pakistan is in the middle of a financial crisis and must decide in the coming weeks whether to turn to the IMF for its 13th bailout in three decades, as pressure on the Pakistani rupee makes the burden of servicing foreign currency debt more onerous.

Asad Umar, Pakistan’s new finance minister, told the FT he was evaluating a plan that would allow Islamabad to avoid an IMF programme, which several people close to the government say would i nvolve new loans from China and perhaps also from Saudi Arabia.

Mr Umar and Mr Dawood both said Pakistan would be careful not to offend Beijing even as it takes a closer look at CPEC agreements signed over the past five years. Mr Khan was elected on a platform of anti-corruption and transparency and has pledged to publish details of existing CPEC contracts.

“We don’t intend to handle this process like Mahathir,” Mr Umar said, referring to the newly elected nonagenarian Malaysian prime minister who has warned about the risk of Chinese “neo-colonialism” Malaysia has cancelled three China-backed pipeline projects and put a showpiece BRI rail link under review.