Monday, September 10, 2018

Pakistan Tops South Asia in Agriculture Value Addition

While Pakistan has lagged in South Asia region in manufacturing value addition, the country enjoys a significant lead in agriculture value addition over Bangladesh and India.  Livestock revolution and increasing farm mechanization have enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes since 1980s. There is rising tractor ownership and growing economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India. However, Pakistan still gets less crop per drop than India which means there is significant opportunity for water saving.

Agriculture Value Addition. Courtesy: Dr. Krishna Prasad Pant


Agriculture Value Addition:

As of 2014, the agriculture value addition in Pakistan is estimated at $1,050 per worker, significantly higher than $700 per worker in India and $600 per person in Bangladesh., according to the World Bank data as reported by Dr. Krishna Pradad Pant in Agriculture Investment in his paper titled "South Asia:trends, opportunities and challenges". 

Agriculture Value Addition. Courtesy: Dr. Krishna Prasad Pant


Adding value is the process of changing or transforming a product from its original state to a more valuable state, according to Professor Mike Boland of Kansas State University. The professor explains how it applies to agriculture as follows:

"Many raw commodities have intrinsic value in their original state. For example, field corn grown, harvested and stored on a farm and then fed to livestock on that farm has value. In fact, value usually is added by feeding it to an animal, which transforms the corn into animal protein or meat. The value of a changed product is added value, such as processing wheat into flour. It is important to identify the value-added activities that will support the necessary investment in research, processing and marketing. The application of biotechnology, the engineering of food from raw products to the consumers and the restructuring of the distribution system to and from the producer all provide opportunities for adding value."

Tractor Ownership:

Agriculture mechanization is measured in terms of tractor ownership in horsepower per hectare of cultivated land. It has grown in Pakistan from 1.02 hp per hectare in 1992 to 1.5 hp/ha in 2015,  according to a paper titled "In Pakistan, Agriculture Mechanization Status" by Muhammad Aamir Iqbal. It is still significantly lower than India's 2.50, China's 3.88 and Japan's 7.0.      

Pakistan's tractor market is growing. In 2017, over 60,000 tractors were sold. Production capacity stands at 70,000 units per annum and models range from 55 to 85hp, according to a report in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.  Since the launch of the indigenization program initiated in the eighties by the Pakistan Tractor Corporation, the industry has achieved 95% localization in terms of production.

Crop Per Drop:

Data on irrigation efficiency in Pakistan highlights significant opportunities for saving water.

In an average rainfall year, the water productivity for wheat in Pakistan (0.76 kg/m3) is 24% less than the global average (~1.0 kg/m3), according to Water Watch . During the drought of 2001- 02, water productivities were at the same level as the global average. Hence, drought results in a more efficient utilization of water resources by wheat crops grown in the rabi (the dry winter season).

Water Watch found that rice yield in Pakistani Punjab is on-average 24% higher than in Sindh. The water productivity of rice (0.45 kg/m3) is 55% below the average value for rice in Asia (~1.0 kg.m3). Contrary to wheat, the water productivity of rice decreased during the 2001 drought, because rice is sensitive to water stress and to salinity that is intensified through increased groundwater withdrawals.

Crop Yield Comparison. Source: Kleffman Group

Pakistan lags India in water productivity. Crop yields show distinct North-South and East-West variations: wheat yields in the Indian Punjab average 29% higher than in the Pakistani Punjab to the west, and wheat yields in the Pakistani Punjab are 33% higher than in the Pakistani Sindh to the south. These spatial patterns of wheat yield are similar for 1984-85 and 2001- 02. Because crop evapotranspiration in the Pakistani Punjab and Indian Punjab are similar, the difference in crop yields between these two regions is also responsible for the difference in water productivity values. This important conclusion implies that increased water productivity can only be achieved by increased crop yields. Experiments of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council across the country (n=41) have indicated that the overall yield of wheat can be increased by 54%, provided that inputs are optimal. Improved management of water quality (groundwater and canal water) and evacuation of drainage water are important components for improving agricultural production. Seed quality, fertilizers, and pesticide control should also be improved. 

Summary: 

While Pakistan has lagged in South Asia region in manufacturing value addition, the country enjoys a significant lead in agriculture value addition over Bangladesh and India.  Livestock revolution and increasing farm mechanization have enabled Pakistan to significantly raise agriculture productivity and rural incomes since 1980s. There is rising tractor ownership and growing economic activity in dairy, meat and poultry sectors now accounts for just over 50% of the nation's total agricultural output. The result is that per capita value added to agriculture in Pakistan is almost twice as much as that in Bangladesh and India. Pakistan still gets less crop per drop than India which means there is significant opportunity for water saving.

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Most Indians and Pakistanis Employed in Agriculture and Textiles

Pakistan Among Top Meat and Dairy Consuming Nations

Upwardly Mobile Pakistan

Pakistan Water Crisis: Myths and Facts

FMCG Boom in Pakistan

Agricultural Growth in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

Pakistan's Rural Economic Survey

Pakistan Manufacturing Sector Lags South Asia Region

Karachi Tops Mumbai in Stock Performance

India and Pakistan Contrasted in 2010

Pakistan's Decade 1999-2009

Musharraf's Economic Legacy

World Bank Report on Rural Poverty in Pakistan


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Pakistan/value_added_agriculture_dollars/
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/value_added_agriculture_dollars/

This contradicts your claim.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "This contradicts your claim."

No, it doesn't. Take a look at agriculture productivity charts

India: Agriculture value added per worker, constant USD: For that indicator, The World Bank provides data for India from 1980 to 2018. The average value for India during that period was 877.56 U.S. dollars with a minumum of 645.29 U.S. dollars in 1980 and a maximum of 1202.45 U.S. dollars in 2016. See the global rankings for that indicator or use the country comparator to compare trends over time.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/Agriculture_productivity/

Pakistan: Agriculture value added per worker, constant USD: For that indicator, The World Bank provides data for Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The average value for Pakistan during that period was 1501.55 U.S. dollars with a minumum of 1011.2 U.S. dollars in 1981 and a maximum of 1757.26 U.S. dollars in 2015. See the global rankings for that indicator or use the country comparator to compare trends over time.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Pakistan/Agriculture_productivity/

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan among top three dairy producers
Amin Ahmed Updated June 01, 2017

https://www.dawn.com/news/1336575

ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations says Pakistan is among the three countries in Asia and Pacific region which are the world’s top dairy producing countries.

The total value of Asian dairy production exceeded $110 billion in 2013, and figured in the three top commodities in the region in terms of gross value of production. While the dairy production in Pakistan, India and China largely meet domestic consumption, Australia and New Zealand produce a surplus, FAO says on the occasion of World Milk Day being celebrated on June 1 (Thursday).

According to latest figures published in Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17, milk production in the country is on the increase and during the current fiscal year the gross production of milk was estimated to be 56,080,000 tonnes.

FAO warned that while dairy has big potential, the sector needs to be more sustainable and competitive in Asia and Pacific region. This means helping smallholder farmers gain greater access to markets and services and develop successful dairy business models to increase domestic production.


The aim is to create a sector, which is socially responsible and produces safe and healthy food making more efficient use of the natural resources and reduces the effects on the environment. Only by doing so, will the sector become more sustainable for the benefit of future generations. FAO remains committed to working with all stakeholders to achieve a dairy sector that contributes to health and prosperity of the world.

An Asia Pacific Regional Audit done by the International Osteoporosis Foundation has concluded that the average dietary calcium intake in Asia is well below the FAO-WHO recommendation of 1,000 to 1,300 milligrams per day and most Asian countries have seen a two-to-three fold increase in the incidence of hip fractures during the past 30 years.

In order to facilitate dairy farmers, duty free import of calf milk replacer and cattle feed premix was allowed. During the current fiscal year, 310.2 metric tonnes of calf milk replacer and 298.9 metric tons of cattle feed premix was imported.

Last December, the Royal Friesland Company acquired 51 per cent of Engro Foods Pakistan, which was one of the largest private sector foreign direct investments in Pakistan’s dairy sector, amounting to $450 million.

Under the new deal and 2020 strategy arrangements, Engro Foods will aim for higher milk quality, variety of milk packages and products and farmers’ capacity building leading to a reduction in poverty.

In addition, regulatory duties to the tune of 25pc have been imposed on the import of skimmed milk powder and whey powder. This is to attract further investments in the dairy sector along with protecting small dairy farmers.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistani giant #Engro to bet big on rising #middleclass in #Pakistan. Engro weighing acquisitions and starting new businesses in #agriculture, #healthcare, #realestate , #communications and other #consumer-linked sectors to profit from rising #incomes. https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/368531-in-shift-pakistani-giant-engro-to-bet-big-on-rising-middle-class

Pakistan’s chemicals-to-energy conglomerate Engro Corp has seen its fortunes rise on the back of massive Chinese investment, but plans to shape its future growth around the country’s vast population and expanding middle class, its chief executive said.

Engro Corp, best known for its fertilizer and petrochemicals factories, as well as engineering projects, is Pakistan’s largest listed conglomerate, and after recovering from a brush with bankruptcy in the early part of this decade is now sitting on a $500 million cash pile.

It has been a major beneficiary from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative splurge, working with Chinese firms on coal and power projects worth billions of dollars.

Engro’s rising fortunes since 2012, when its factories were crippled by gas shortages, mirror the improvements in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation where economic growth has accelerated due to vast Chinese investment and a sharp drop in militancy and power outages.

In the near term, Engro’s outlook is linked to a mile-long $1.5 billion coal mine in the Thar desert near the border with India, part of Beijing’s pledge to invest about $60 billion in Pakistan.

But with Pakistan’s new government hinting it may review Belt and Road contracts due to concerns they were too expensive, some analysts see risks on the horizon for Engro and say planned power plants around the mine may struggle to obtain financing.

Ghias Khan, Engro’s chief executive, told Reuters this week he was “pretty confident” the government would not re-open deals with sovereign guarantees.

“If they do, that will have a very negative impact,” Khan said.

This year Pakistan’s economy has also been shaken by a shortage of dollars, and speculation Islamabad may turn to the International Monetary Fund to ease current account pressures.

CONSUMER GROWTH

Undeterred by Chinese investment jitters and the recently wobbly economy, Khan said Engro was weighing acquisitions and starting new businesses in agriculture, healthcare, real estate, communications and other consumer-linked sectors to profit from rising incomes in the Muslim majority country of 208 million people, 60 percent of whom are aged under 30.

“We’ve come to a realization what has gotten Engro where it is today is not good enough for our next phase of growth,” Khan said in an interview at Engro’s ocean-front headquarters in Karachi, an Arabian Sea metropolis.

“What we are proud of is our ability to execute large-scale projects and put up large industrial complexes. But we are mindful we have to get into businesses which are more related to the population growth, and take us closer to the consumers.”

In Karachi, mushrooming shopping malls and ever-rising number of cars on the road point to a multi-year consumer boom as people’s disposable incomes have doubled this decade, analysts say.

Khan compared Pakistan’s current economic level, population growth and per capita income, which stands at about $1,600, to where China, South Korea and India were at earlier points in their development.

“If you look at sectors that did well when they were where Pakistan is today ... like real estate, automobiles, healthcare, logistics - everything is somehow related or linked to population growth or the middle class,” Khan said.