Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Fossil Fuels. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Earth Day: Pakistan's Progress Toward Low-Carbon Economy

Pakistan celebrates Earth Day on April 22 every year by organizing various events sponsored by the government and non-government organizations to raise awareness of the issues faced by the earth. Today it is being observed with a range of initiatives, including pledges for zero waste, commitments to sustainable practices, and community-based actions to protect the planet. Pakistan contributes less than 1% of global carbon emissions, but it is among the countries considered most vulnerable to climate change. About a third of the country was devastated by massive floods in 2022. The nation committed continued pursuit of nature-based solutions to the problem at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. As part of this commitment, the country is planting one of the world's largest mangrove forests in the Indus River Delta, a key component of its Ten Billion Tree Tsunami campaign launched by former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The area where Pakistan is making substantial progress is in moving toward a low-carbon economy.

Earth Day in Pakistan

Pakistan Nuclear Power Generation Growth

"Our Power, Our Planet" theme focuses on a low-carbon economy with growth in clean electricity generation and the use of electric vehicles in Pakistan. In 2024, the hydropower contributed 10,681MW to the national grid, accounting for 25.4% of total capacity and generating 29,167GWh, representing 31.7% of total electricity generation. With nuclear power generation capacity of 3,262 megawatts, Pakistan increased the share of electricity generated from nuclear power plants to a record 17.4% in 2023 from 16.2% in 2022. Pakistan’s on-grid, net-metered solar capacity reached about 4,100 MW by December 2024.

Pakistan Solar Adoption Rate Faster Than India and China. Source: Ember via Reuters

Meanwhile, Pakistan is in the midst of a solar power boom. It has joined the ranks of the world’s leading solar markets, importing 17 gigawatts of solar panels last year alone, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. “Rooftop solar is fast becoming the preferred energy provider,” says Muhammad Mustafa Amjad, program director at Renewables First in Pakistan. “And the role of the grid has to massively adapt in order to remain relevant in a fast-transitioning energy economy.”

Pakistan's Soaring Solar Panel Imports. Source: Ember via CNN

A number of auto companies have announced plans to manufacture electric vehicles. Pakistani automobile joint ventures with Chinese automakers BYD and Changan have recently launched several all-electric and plug-in hybrid models of automobiles in Pakistan. Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Limited has announced plans to build a hybrid electric vehicles plant in the country. Other major brands like Toyota, Haval, and Hyundai are already offering similar models in the country. It all began with the 2019 electric vehicle policy approved by the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan to incentivize the electrification of the auto industry. Pakistan EV policy goal is to achieve 30% of new cars sales, 50% of new 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler sales and 30% of new truck sales by 2030. By 2040, the target is 90% of all new vehicle sales to be electric. The main incentive is the reduction of sales tax from 17% for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to 1% for all-electric (EV) vehicles.

Solar's Growing Share of Energy in Pakistan. Source: Reuters

Pakistan is currently experiencing a huge economic drain in terms of fossil fuel imports. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, Pakistan's oil import bill increased by 23% compared to the same period in 2023. Paying for huge amounts of imported coal, gas, and oil in US dollars has become disastrous, particularly after 40% depreciation of Pakistani currency over the last two years. Switching to cheap renewable sources will have a salutary effect on the country's climate and economy. It will help grow the nation's exports by increasing its exporters' competitiveness. It will also make it easier to manage inflation and reduce the need for recurring IMF bailouts.

The GenAI revolution is another factor that will dramatically increase global power demand. Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasts that the new high-performance AI data centers alone will grow electricity demand by 160% by 2030. Pakistan needs to prepare for it if it wants to be competitive in this brave new world of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI).

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Renewable Energy: Clean Electrification of Pakistan's Economy

Access to abundant and cheap electricity is essential for running a modern competitive economy. The rapidly growing power demand for generative AI data centers makes it even more important. The best way to ensure it is in switching to renewable energy sources. That is why Pakistan is in the midst of a renewable power boom. It is ramping up generation of clean energy with solar, hydro, wind and nuclear power. 13 gigawatts of solar panels have been imported in the first half of this year alone. Another 10 gigawatts of hydroelectric power projects are under construction for completion by 2030, bringing the total hydropower capacity to 20 gigawatts. Pakistan's total nuclear energy production capacity rose to 3,620 MW, when the country's sixth nuclear power plant opened two years ago. Pakistan and China have recently signed a $4.8 billion deal to build another 1,200 MW nuclear power plant. There are 36 private wind projects producing approximately 1,845 MW in the country. Pakistan is phasing out old fossil fuel power plants. It has negotiated the termination of power purchase contracts with five independent fossil fuel power producers (IPPs), including Hubco, the largest IPP currently operating in the country. More negotiations are underway to terminate additional IPP contracts. Payments to these IPPs are a huge burden on the nation’s economy and ordinary consumers alike. There have been violent protests against high electricity rates across the country.

Renewable Energy. Source: Easy-Peasy.AI

Friday, November 12, 2021

COP26: Climate Change, Modi, Methane and Cow Burps/Farts

India's largest cow herd in the world makes it the third biggest global methane emitter. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 84 times greater than CO2. At COP26 in Glasgow, 104 nations agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. India, represented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, refused to join this agreement, as did the top two emitters China and Russia. Pakistan, the 8th largest methane emitter, did make the methane cut pledge.

Top Global Emitters of Methane. Source: Financial Times

Cattle Emissions:

Cow burps and farts are major contributors to global warming. The digestive processes of ruminants, including buffalos and cows, produce methane, a greenhouse gas which is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the planet. India has over 300 million ruminants, about one-third of the global cattle herd population. Pakistan has about 100 million buffalos and cows.

Methane Emissions From Fossil Fuels.

The world's top 5 agriculture methane emitters are 1. India, 2. China, 3. Brazil, 4. United States and 5. Pakistan.

Methane Emission Sources. Source: Financial Times

Industrial Emissions:

Majority of the methane emissions in the industrialized world come from fossil fuels, including natural gas, oil and coal. In India, about 30% of the methane comes from industrial processes while 70% is contributed by livestock. In Pakistan, industrial and domestic consumption of natural gas contributes 40% of methane emission while the rest come from agriculture. There is strong correlation between industrial emissions and GDP intensity. The regions with the highest GDP per kilometer have the highest levels of industrial emissions of CO2 and methane.

GDP Density Per Square Kilometer

Solutions:

Both industrial and agriculture sources of methane emissions need to be managed to achieve 30% cut by 2030 pledged by 105 nations. Industrial emissions will require plugging leaks in the production, transmission and distribution networks of natural gas.

There are a number of ideas being pursued to reduce emissions from buffalos and cows. These range from animal feed additives to produce less gas to the use of face masks.

A sensor in the animal face mask detects the percentage of methane that is expelled when the cow exhales. When methane levels exceed a certain limit, the mask channels the gas towards an oxidation mechanism inside, which contains a catalyst that converts methane into CO2 and water, and expels it from the device.

Summary:

Burps and farts from ruminants like buffalos and cows are a major source of global warming. These emissions contain methane gas which is 84 times more potent than CO2 in causing global warming. In addition, there are significant methane emissions from industrial and domestic use of fossil fuels like natural gas, oil and coal. At COP26 in Glasgow, 104 nations agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030. India refused to join this agreement. Pakistan, the 8th largest methane emitter, did make the methane cut pledge.