Massive Growth in Electrical Connections Worsened Demand-Supply Gap in Pakistan

Pakistan has made remarkable progress in electrification of its towns and villages both in absolute terms and as percentage of population over the past two decades, according to a recently-released report titled "Global Tracking Framework" issued jointly by the World Bank and the International Energy Agency. This report at least partly explains the dramatic increase in demand-supply gap and consequent increase in load-shedding in Pakistan.

The report says that 60 percent of Pakistanis had access to electricity in 1990, 80 percent in 2000 and 91 percent in 2010. By 2010, 88 percent people of rural and 98 percent of the country's urban population had access to electricity. Comparable figures in India are as follows: 51% in 1990, 62% 2000, and 75% in 2010. 93% of urban and 67% of rural Indians had access to electricity in 2010.

The report identifies top 20 countries with the largest number of people to have gained access to electricity over the past 20 years. Of these, 12 are in Asia. They brought electrical service to 1.3 billion people  (of the 1.7 billion electrified globally between 1990 and 2010), 283 million more than their population increase. The most impressive expansion of electrification occurred in India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The advances in these populous countries are of enormous significance for achievement of the global universal access target.

The detailed World Bank report identified India as the most deprived country in terms of access to energy: as many as 306.2 million of its people are still without this basic utility. The remaining 19 nations lacking access to energy, with the number of deprived people is as follows: Nigeria (82.4 million), Bangladesh (66.4 million), Ethiopia (63.9 million), Congo (55.9 million), Tanzania (38.2 million), Kenya (31.2 million), Sudan (30.9 million), Uganda (28.5 million), Myanmar (24.6 million), Mozambique (19.9 million), Afghanistan (18.5 million), North Korea (18 million), Madagascar (17.8 million), the Philippines (15.6 million), Pakistan (15 million), Burkina Faso (14.3 million), Niger (14.1 million), Indonesia (14 million) and Malawi 13.6 million).

In addition to access to electricity, the report also details access to non-solid fuels like oil and natural gas (fuels other than firewood, dung or charcoal commonly used in poor countries for cooking) as a key parameter of progress in terms of energy. Such access helps reduce environmental pollution and associated human health hazards.

The goal of universal access to modern energy depends critically on  the efforts of 20 high-impact countries which include Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan. Together, these 20 countries account for more than two thirds of the population currently living without electricity (0.9 billion people) and more than four-fifths of the global population without access to non-solid fuels (2.4 billion people). In terms of electricity, India has by far the largest access deficit; exceeding 300 million people, while for non-solid cooking fuel, India and China each have access deficits exceeding 600 million people.

This tracking report is part of UN's Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) Initiative launched in 2012.  The initiative recognizes the importance of universal access to modern energy as a key part of empowering the poor and lifting large numbers of people out of poverty and deprivation.

For the newly-connected rural poor in Pakistan, even a couple of hours of electricity a day is better than no electricity all. Even a brief period of service enables them to charge up their cell phones and watch a little bit of television to stay informed and connected.These small things significantly improve the quality of life of those who lived without any electrical connections in the last decade or two. Eventually one hopes that the energy crisis will be resolved to  bring supply and demand in better balance.

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Abundant, Cheap Coal Electricity For Pakistan

Coal is the cheapest and the most common fuel used directly or indirectly to produce electricity and heat in the world today. Global coal consumption was about 6.7 billion tons in 2006 and is expected to increase 48% to 9.98 billion tons by 2030, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). China produced 2.38 billion tons in 2006. India produced about 447.3 million tons and Pakistan mined only about 8 million tons in 2006. 68.7% of China's electricity comes from coal. The United States consumes about 14% of the world total, using 90% of it for generation of electricity. The U.S. coal-fired plants have over 300 GW of capacity.

Thar desert region in Pakistan is endowed with one of the largest coal reserves in the world. Discovered in early 1990s, the Thar coal has not yet been developed to produce usable energy. With the devastating increases in imported oil bill and the growing shortages of gas and electricity in the country, the coal development is finally beginning to get the attention it deserves. Coal contributes about 20% of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions but it is the cheapest fuel available, according to Pew Center on Global Climate Change. It can provide usable energy at a cost of between $1 and $2 per MMBtu compared to $6 to $12 per MMBtu for oil and natural gas, and coal prices are relatively stable. Coal is inherently higher-polluting and more carbon-intensive than other energy alternatives. However, coal is so inexpensive that one can spend quite a bit on pollution control and still maintain coal’s competitive position.



At the end of the decade of 1990s when the economy was stagnant, Pakistan had about 1200 MW excess capacity. Between 2000 and 2008, the electricity demand from industries and consumers grew dramatically with the rapid economic expansion that more than doubled the nation's GDP from $60 billion to $170 billion. The Musharraf government added about 3500 MW of capacity during this period which still left a gap of over 1500 MW by 2008. The economy has since slowed to a crawl, the electricity demand has decreased, and yet the nation is suffering the worst ever power outages in the history of Pakistan. As discussed in an earlier post, Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 18,500 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have only been able to give PEPCO much less than the 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the power plants in the country are operating well below installed capacity because the operators are not being paid enough to buy fuel. Circular debt owed to the power producers and oil companies is currently believed to be largely responsible for severe load shedding affecting most of the nation.

The circular debt has assumed alarming portions since 2008, resulting in the current severe power problems. Former finance minister Saukat Tarin recently told the News that “in real terms the circular debt has swelled to Rs108 billion which mainly includes non-payment of Rs42 billion by KESC, Rs21 billion by the government of Sindh and Rs15-16 billion from commercial consumers to the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco)". Just prior to leaving office, Tarin decided to raise Rs. 25 billion as a small step toward settling the swelling unpaid bills owed to power producers.



Per capita energy consumption in Pakistan is estimated at 14.2 million Btu, which is much higher than Bangladesh's 5 million BTUs per capita but slightly less than India's 15.9 million BTU per capita energy consumption. South Asia's per capita energy consumption is only a fraction of other industrializing economies in Asia region such as China (56.2 million BTU), Thailand (58 million BTU) and Malaysia (104 million BTU), according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on imports that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position. On the other hand, hydro and coal are perhaps underutilized today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both.

The country's creaky and outdated electricity infrastructure loses over 30 percent, some of it due to rampant power theft, of generated power in transit, more than seven times the losses of a well-run system, according to the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank; and a lack of spare high-voltage grid capacity limits the transmission of power from hydroelectric plants in the north to make up for shortfalls in the south.

It does seem that Pakistan is finally getting serious about utilizing its vast coal resources to produce electricity and gas. Talking recently with GeoTV's Hamid Mir, Pepco Managing Director Tahir Basharat Cheema shared the following list of coal projects being launched:

1. The Sind Government has awarded a 1200 MW project to extract Thar coal and produce electricity to Engro Power.

2. A similar 1200 MW project is being undertaken by Pepco in Thar. The Pepco project also includes a 700 Km transmission line to connect Thar plants with the national grid.

3. An experimental project for underground coal gasification is being built by Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr. Mubarakmand to tap underground coal to produce 50 MW.

4. Another experimental 50 MW project using pressure coal gasification is planned by Pepco.

The coal and various renewable energy projects are expected to be online in the next 2 to 5 years. If these projects do succeed and more investors are attracted to the power sector, then Pakistan has the potential to produce about 100,000 MW a year for a century or longer. But these efforts will not help in the short or immediate term. What is urgently needed is decisive action to resolve the circular debt problems and restore power generation to full installed capacity immediately.

Here is a video clip of former president General Musharraf talking about the worst ever load shedding being faced by Pakistanis today:



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Pakistan's Load Shedding and Circular Debt

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Field Hockey: Pakistan's Race to the Bottom

Pakistan field hockey has hit rock bottom. The four-time world champions and winners of the Olympic gold medal in field hockey have ranked at 12 out of 12 nations that participated in this year's World Cup in India. And it's not just hockey; the fortunes of the national cricket team are also in steep decline. Pakistan Cricket Board, the nation's cricket body, has slapped bans and fines on the top players of the national cricket team after the loss of all of the matches played during their recent Australian tour.

With the close relatives and cronies of the ruling feudal politicians heading Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) and Pakistan Hockey Federation (PHF) as well as other key functions in government, the nation's sports are not immune from the corrosive effects of the national politics of the day. What is happening in the sports arena is tragic, but it is not limited to Pakistani sports teams. The fall of cricket and hockey are symptomatic of a much larger problem. There is a race to the bottom in the national life; the economy is stagnant since 2008, after being among the best performing in the region; its politics is petty; there is total breakdown in law and order; the nation is slipping in the UNDP human development rankings; there is growing sense of insecurity from terror attacks; the country is experiencing unprecedented multiple crises of power, water, gas, food, and the list goes on and on. A wave of toxic cynicism is engulfing the entire nation in the absence of inspiring and competent national leadership.

It was under the military government of President Musharraf that Pakistan's private mass media were born and bred, and enjoyed unprecedented freedom in the history of the nation. Ten years ago Pakistan had one television channel. Today it has over 100. Together they have begun to open up a country long shrouded by political, moral and religious censorship under military and civilian "democracy" alike. Now they are taking on the government, breaking social taboos and, most recently, pushing a new national consensus against the Taliban.

The multiple TV channels spawned by the Musharraf media revolution were joined by the expanded middle class which also grew along with the media to bring down the previous government in 2008. Now, the ruling feudal politicians, and prominent media personalities are mindlessly and tirelessly repeating the mantra that "even the worst democracy is better than the best dictatorship." They insist on it as an article of faith. What they completely ignore is the fact that "good" dictatorships in many East Asian nations have helped create strong economies with large and highly developed middle class populations, leading them to durable and competent democracies.

Clearly, the politicians and the TV talk show hosts are not the ones paying the heaviest price for the current sham democracy led by the most incompetent and corrupt people. Instead, it is the lower middle class and the poor who are suffering the most. Many of them have lost their jobs and slipped back into poverty with the declining economy during the last two years. They are unable to buy the basic necessities such as food and fuel because of high inflation. They lack the resources to insulate themselves from the terrible effects of deteriorating governance in the name of democracy. Unlike the feudal politicians and the well-paid TV talking heads, the poor and lower middle classes can not buy private security, or get a private diesel generator, or have private delivery of water to their homes. Nor do they have affordable access to justice from the "independent judiciary" or the services of the largely absent "pro bono" lawyers to petition the courts on their behalf. They are left to fend for themselves with no help from the urban elite or the members of the "civil society" who make up the vast majority of the most vocal supporters of feudal democracy in Pakistan.

Pakistan's average economic growth rate was 6.8% in the 60s (Gen. Ayub Khan), 4.5% in the 70s(Zulfikar Bhutto), 6.5% in the 80s (Gen. Zia ul-Haq), and 4.8% in the 90s (Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif). Growth picked up momentum in the 21st Century under General Musharraf, and from 2000-2007, Pakistan's economy grew at an average 7.5%, making it the third fastest growing economy in Asia after China and India. There were 2-3 million new jobs created each year from 2000-2007, which significantly enlarged the middle class, and helped millions escape poverty.

Unfortunately, there is a troubling history of the democratic process in Pakistan resulting in the election of leaders who are demonstrably both corrupt and incompetent. After surviving the lost decade of the 1990s under such leaders, and then thriving in the last decade under a more competent dictator until 2007, Pakistan has once again returned to the bad old days of the 1990s. The economy is stagnating, inflation is high, there are shortages of everything from food to water and power and security, unemployment is rising, and many are slipping back into poverty.

It would be great if Pakistanis could have both competence and honesty in their leaders. However, I would personally insist on competence to deliver good governance as a minimum criterion for leadership positions, if I can't have both.

Here is my incomplete wish list for the kind of competencies desirable in governing Pakistan at this critical juncture in its life:

1. Motivational Competency: The leadership needs to sell a vision of a secure, peaceful, stable and prosperous Pakistan, and motivate the people to work toward achieving it. It's not going to be easy, but strong motivational skills can help inspire the nation, in spite of the deep skepticism and toxic cynicism that pervades the nation's discourse today.

2. Security Competency: What the leadership needs is a comprehensive strategy using a mix of intelligence capability, political dialog, military force and close monitoring to isolate and defeat those who continue to perpetrate murder and mayhem on the streets of Pakistan. Such a policy must be developed, debated, sold to the people, and constantly refined to produce results.

3. Human Development Competency: No nation can achieve greatness unless its human resource potential is developed and utilized to the fullest. It is a challenge that will require a team of committed and competent professionals with the full backing and the resources of the state to build a public-private partnership for mass literacy campaigns and to provide access to food and health care. Beyond that, there will be a serious focus required to build great institutions of higher learning to develop knowledge based economy for the twenty-first century.

4. Economic Competency: There is a need to build a non-partisan economic leadership team with the best available talent and experience in Pakistan. Such a team should be chartered to come up with policies and programs to spur nation's economic growth to create opportunities for the tens of millions of young people, and to generate the national resources for funding ambitious programs in human and economic development of the nation.

Can our current leadership do it? Their past record is not reassuring. However, if they make a serious effort toward it, and start to show some results, I am confident they will find real support for their efforts in Pakistan. Results from good governance by the leadership will be the best guarantee for reversing the current race to the bottom and ensure the survival of democracy in Pakistan.

The rhetoric that "even the worst democracy is better than the best dictatorship" can not save democracy. If the current crop of elected politicians are really serious about strengthening democracy, it is important for them to pursue a broad good governance agenda in Pakistan with education and training of politicians as the center piece. It is important for them to revive the idea of a school of government in Islamabad to increase the chances for democracy to survive and thrive in Pakistan. Unless the politicians find a way to improve governance to solve people's problems, the nation will be condemned to repeat the past history of democracy's failure in Pakistan.

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Renewable Energy to Tackle Pakistan's Electricity Crisis

In June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, in extremely hot weather, Pakistanis have to endure without electricity for 8 to 10 hours a day. Industrial production is suffering, exports are down, jobs are being lost, and the national economy is in a downward spiral. By all indications, the power crisis in Pakistan is getting worse than ever.

Extended Load-shedding:
Extended electricity load shedding in Karachi's five major industrial estates is causing losses in billions of rupees as the production activity has fallen by about 50 per cent. KESC, Karachi's power supply utility, is dealing with with a shortfall of around 700MW against a total demand of 2200MW. Almost all forms of power generation from fossil fuel-fired thermal to hydroelectric to nuclear are down from a year ago. As a result of the daily rolling blackouts, the economy, major exports and overall employment are also down and the daily wage earners are suffering. The KESC and PEPCO owe more than Rs. 10b to the independent power producers (IPPs) and paying them will help bring them into full operation and ease the crisis at least partially.

Electricity Demand:
As discussed in an earlier post, Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW on average out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks below the required minimum of 21 days. IPPs complain that they are not being paid on time by PEPCO.

Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which is about the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on expensive, imported oil that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position, creating growing budget deficits. On the other hand, hydro, coal, wind and solar are perhaps underutilized and underdeveloped today, as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources.

The country's creaky and outdated electricity infrastructure loses over 30 percent of generated power in transit, more than seven times the losses of a well-run system, according to the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank; and a lack of spare high-voltage grid capacity limits the transmission of power from hydroelectric plants in the north to make up for shortfalls in the south.

Gilani Government's Response:
Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. This hydro project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. Prior to this project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan.

Green Energy Opportunities:
In response to the warnings of energy crisis in Pakistan, President Musharraf's government recognized the need and the potential for renewable alternatives and, in 2006, created Alternative Energy Development Board to pursue renewable energy. In particular, AEDB is focusing on wind and solar as viable alternatives. AEDB is facilitating setting up of small renewable energy projects in line with government’s policy of promoting the use of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix, says the board’s chief executive officer Mr Arif Alauddin. AEDB has recently issued Makwind Power Private Ltd (MPPL) a Letter of Intent for the setting up of 50MW wind farm at Nooriabad in Sindh, as part of its efforts to facilitate 700 MW wind energy by 2010.



According to data published by Miriam Katz of Environmental Peace Review, Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which are high wind speeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4 meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). Pakistan is also fortunate that in neighboring India, the company Suzlon manufactures wind turbines, thus decreasing transportation costs. Working with Suzlon, Pakistan can begin to build its own wind-turbine industry and create thousands of new jobs while solving its energy problems. Suzlon turbines start to turn at a speed of 3 meters per second. Vestas, which is one of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers, has wind turbines that start turning at a speed of 4 meters per second. In addition to Karachi and Islamabad, there are other areas in Pakistan that receive a significant amount of wind.

In only the Balochistan and Sindh provinces, sufficient wind exists to power every coastal village in the country. There also exists a corridor between Gharo and Keti Bandar that alone could produce between 40,000 and 50,000 megawatts of electricity, says Ms. Katz who has studied and written about alternative energy potential in South Asia. Given this surplus potential, Pakistan has much to offer Asia with regards to wind energy. In recent years, the government has completed several projects to demonstrate that wind energy is viable in the country. In Mirpur Sakro, 85 micro turbines have been installed to power 356 homes. In Kund Malir, 40 turbines have been installed, which power 111 homes. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has also acquired 18,000 acres for the installation of more wind turbines.

In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will be available all the time. Within towns and cities, wind speeds can often change quickly due to the presence of buildings and other structures, which can damage wind turbines. In addition, many people do not wish for turbines to be sited near cities because of noise, though these problems are often exaggerated. Wind turbines make less noise than an office and people comfortably carry on conversations while standing near them.

As is painfully evident in summers, Pakistan is an exceptionally sunny country. If 0.25% of Balochistan was covered with solar panels with an efficiency of 20%, enough electricity would be generated to cover all of Pakistani demand. In all provinces the AEDB has created 100 solar homes in order to exploit solar energy.

Solar energy makes much sense for Pakistan for several reasons: firstly, 70% of the population lives in 50,000 villages that are very far away from the national grid, according to a report by the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). Connecting these villages to the national grid would be very costly, thus giving each house a solar panel would be cost efficient and would empower people both economically and socially.

Coal Power and Hydroelectricity
In addition to high winds and abundant solar potential, Pakistan has the fifth largest coal deposits in the world. The negative environmental effects of coal burning can be be mitigated by making use of the latest clean coal technologies that limit noxious gas exhaust into the atmosphere.

Pakistan also has some deposits of natural gas in the Potwar Plateau region and near the border between Balochistan and Sindh, but these are likely to disappear within 20 years.

Because of the presence of many rivers and lakes, it makes sense for Pakistan to build dams to support water management and electricity generation projects. However, it must be done with care to avoid damage to the environment or loss of farmland.

Financial and Policy Incentives
Despite the fact that Pakistan is so well endowed with wind and solar potential, only a few projects such as those mentioned above have been completed. One of the reasons why this has occurred is that Pakistan does not have major financial incentives available for those who want to install wind turbines or solar panels. Let us look at the case of India, Pakistan's neighbor. Despite having less potential for wind, India now has the world's fourth largest number of wind turbines installed at 7,093 MW, according to India: Renewable Energy Market report. Ahead of India are Germany at 21,283 MW, Spain at 13,400 MW and the US at 12,934 MW. In Germany, Spain and India, those who install wind turbines and solar panels are guaranteed a certain rate per kilowatt hour. In India, this varies according to the technology and the area. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India reports that in most areas, between 2500 and 4800 rupees are guaranteed for solar panels, and for wind turbines, between 250,000 and 300,000 rupees are awarded.
Because of the above incentives, the cost of wind in India is between 2 and 2.5 cents per kilowatt hour while in Pakistan, the cost is 7 cents. In December 2006, President Musharraf announced a national renewable energy policy. This policy means that small projects do not need approval and that any person can put up their own project. However, there are no financial incentives for doing so. At the moment, all renewable energy equipment has no sales or income tax and is free of custom duty, but these incentives are not enough to stimulate major growth in the renewable energy market where ROIs and other financial ratios have a long gestation or breakeven period. In certain situations, such as the textiles and other Karachi industrial units losing production and export opportunities due to power cuts, it may make sense for the owners to join hands and build power generation capacity they can rely on.

Conclusion
In addition to coal and hydro electricity generation, Miriam Katz argues that it is clear that Pakistan is a suitable country for the installation of wind and solar: due to high winds near cities; the presence of rivers and lakes as well as the availability of wind turbines from nearby India. There are also other reasons for installing renewable energy. It is quite normal for extended power outages to happen on a daily basis in the country, but this cannot continue if the Pakistani economy is to grow. In March 2007, President Musharraf stated that renewable energy should be part of the push to increase energy supplies by 10 to 12 percent every year. The government also set a target of 10 percent of energy to come from renewables by 2015. If the new PPP-led government follows through with aggressive renewable energy push, Pakistan could be an Asian leader in renewable energy given its natural resources of wind and solar as its strategic endowments.

Related Links:

Renewable Energy Businesses in Pakistan

Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technology

Renewable Energy for Pakistan

Pakistan Policy on Renewable Technology

Sugarcane Ethanol Project in Pakistan

Community Based Renewable Energy Project in Pakistan

Pakistan Signs Hydropower Deal

MWH, a global provider of environmental engineering, strategic consulting and construction services, today announced that it was selected by the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) to provide engineering and construction management services for the Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project. The project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. MWH is a US firm based in Broomfield, Colorado.

Hydroelectric Power Potential in South Asia Source: Economist Magazine

This hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. Prior to this project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan.

The Joint Venture, Neelum-Jhelum Consultants, lead by MWH and consisting of MWH, Pakistani firms NESPAK, ACE and NDC, and Norwegian firm NORPLAN, will provide design, construction drawing preparation and construction management services for the next eight years.

Located in the Muzaffarabad District in the state of Azad Jammu Kashmir, approximately 85 miles (138 kilometers) from Islamabad, Pakistan, the Neelum-Jhelum project is one of several major projects planned to increase Pakistan's hydroelectric generation capabilities to meet the growing energy needs of the country. The project is part of the Pakistani government's "Vision 2025 Program," envisaged to improve energy development in the country. In addition, Neelum-Jhelum is a priority project in Pakistan's Indus Basic Water Treaty with India. This project has been in the works for eight years but delayed due to various problems including the land acquisition costs in Azad Kashmir. Any further delays would jeopardize Pakistan's right to the water from Neelum river (Called Ganga in India) under the Treaty with India.

In the late 1960s, MWH helped to develop and implement Pakistan's Indus Basin Project. It was the result of a treaty between Pakistan and India, which ended a long and bitter dispute between the two countries over the use of water from the Indus River and its five tributaries. The first large dam built as part of the Indus Basin Project was the Mangla Dam, completed in 1968. An essential part of the project is the MWH -- designed spillway for a 1.1 million cubic feet per second discharge. The company provides water, wastewater, energy, natural resource, program management, consulting and construction services to industrial, municipal and government clients in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, India, Asia and the Pacific Rim.

Both power and water projects are crucial for Pakistan's economy in the intermediate and long term. The challenge for the Pakistani government is to make up for the neglect of several years in the power and water sector. It means that the government must ensure that the water and power projects get started and stay on schedule to begin to address the growing shortage of water and electricity in Pakistan.

Gillani Acts On Wheat, Energy Crises

With global commodity prices and inflation hitting new highs, Pakistan and other emerging economies are faced with serious challenges. The rising inflation of staples such as wheat has already claimed Pakistan's former ruling coalition as a victim. Many other developing countries' governments are likely to fall as well unless these challenges are addressed effectively.

Knowing the importance of wheat for Pakistanis, the government of Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani has begun to take steps to alleviate the wheat crisis. The first steps, announced yesterday by Ministry of Food and Agriculture, deal with providing incentives to farmers to grow more wheat. The price of 40Kg of wheat has been raised by more than 20 percent to Rs. 625.00 (US$9.90) from Rs 510.00 (US$7.90). The government plans to build a 5-million-tonne strategic reserve from the 2007/08 crop, but farmers had rejected the procurement price of 510 rupees per 40 kg as below domestic and international market levels. In addition to price support, the government has announced support for agriculture equipment purchases with the first batch of 50 bulldozers (out of total 300) arriving from China in July this year. These would be put on trial for two months in difficult terrain of NWFP and Balochistan to increase wheat production.

Pakistan saw a surge in wheat and flour prices in the domestic market after a shortage in September and had to import nearly 1.6 million tonnes in spite of producing 23.3 million tonnes of wheat in the 2006/07 crop year.

The south Asian country of 160 million people consumes about 22 million tonnes of wheat a year, according to Reuters.

For the financial year 2007/08, the government has fixed a wheat output target of 24 million tonnes, but farmers and food ministry officials say that target is impossible to achieve and estimate output will be 21 million to 22 million tonnes.

Industry officials say lower-than-expected output may force the government to import between 1 million and 2 million tonnes for stocks and domestic needs.

In addition to the wheat crisis, the other major crisis angering Pakistanis is the continuing brown-outs resulting from 2500-3000MW electricity shortage. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is all set to ink the first-ever power sector pact of his government with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, today for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura), sources close to the Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) managing director told Business Recorder, Pakistan's Financial Daily Newspaper.

Business Recorder is reporting that its sources have expressed serious concern over the cost escalation, saying lower project cost could have been negotiated by a team of experts. The Dong Fong was already in the process of setting up thermal power plant of 450-500 MW at Nandipur (Gujranwala), though several questions had been raised by the Euro Dynamics International, a Lahore-based firm, that the second lower bidder joint venture of Chinese company does not meet the qualification and requirement of combined cycle plant.

Earlier, former prime minister Shaukat Aziz had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and the Alstom-Marubini to set up 450-500 MW thermal power plant at Chichoki Mallian, but a couple of months ago, the pact was terminated when the sponsors did not come up with tariff petition.

Notwithstanding allegations of cost escalation and possible corruption, these are all steps in the right direction by Mr. Gillani's new government. The real question is: Would these steps be sufficient to address the severity of the two crises? Or do we need a more comprehensive plan of action beyond these first steps? A comprehensive, long range plan that addresses the underlying issues of the impact of growing population, increasing global demand and rising inflation that show no signs of abating? Let's wait and see what Mr. Gillani's "first 100" days deliver.

Pakistan Vote: Against Musharraf Or For Opposition?

Many commentators in Pakistan and the World are in overdrive talking about mandates and profound meanings of the February 18 vote in Pakistan. Some are claiming it is a mandate to restore an independent judiciary, media and democracy while others are talking about it as rejection Musharraf's pro-US policies, "extremism" and "war on terror" etc.
In my humble opinion, there is a far simpler explanation for it: People voted in a predictable way based on the issues that affect them directly on a daily basis. These issues are the basic bread and butter issues such as the availability of cheap atta (wheat flour), more reliable supply of fuel and electricity and improved sense of security. Overall macro-economic improvements, significant growth in GDP, per capita income, explosion in mass media etc over the last 8 years did not count for much as people voted.
The reason I call it "predictable" is because all humans want their basic physiological and safety needs met before they turn their attention to higher level issues of civil society, liberty and realization of full potential. In fact, this is something all managers dealing with people routinely learn as "Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs" in management training so they can get better at motivating the people they manage.

Maslow's hierarchy of needs is a theory in psychology that Abraham Maslow proposed in his 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation", which he subsequently extended to include his observations of humans' innate curiosity. The diagram above shows that most Pakistani voters were operating at the two lower levels of the pyramid in their decision to punish the ruling party. This conclusion is further re-enforced when you look at how the results of the IRI (International Republican Institute) opinion polls changed from September 2006 to January 2008. According to an IRI poll in September 2006, Musharraf had a 63 percent approval rating. But last October 11, IRI released a poll showing him at 21 percent. By late January 2008, Musharraf's approval rating plummeted to 14%. What happened in this intervening period that affected people directly: It was increase in suicide bombings following Lal Masjid, the wheat flour price hike and shortage, serious electricity load-shedding and brown-outs, the firing of the chief justice, his restoration and then re-firing, and Benazir Bhutto's assassination. While each contributed to the drop in Musharraf's approval, the biggest drop came between November 2007 and January 2008 with the food, fuel, electricity crises intensifying and Benazir Bhutto assassination. The final straw came when people directly felt the full impact of the food, the fuel, the power and the security issues. In the end, it was clearly a vote to punish the ruling party of PML-Q and Musharraf rather than to give any mandate to the PPP and and the PML(N).
The fact that MMA, who ruled NWFP and Baluchistan, suffered the same fate further illustrates the fact that the people voted to punish those in charge. It was "Throw The Rascals Out" votes cast in anger and protest all over the country.
The winners will probably get a very short honeymoon period before people start demanding quick resolution to their basic concerns with food and fuel prices and security. Given the worldwide commodity price inflation and the worsening situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan's FATA region, the new government faces very difficult challenges as soon as it takes charge. If the winners choose to focus on settling scores with Musharraf and other political opponents rather than attend to the real bread, butter and security issues, they will quickly lose the support of the people who have elected them.

Pakistan's Energy Crisis

Pakistan’s economy has recently been growing at 7-8% per year, doubling its GDP over the last 7 years. The industrial growth rate has been closer to 12.5% per year during this period, contributing 38% of the total economic output of Pakistan. Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which is about the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in the region such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report. To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUs and the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that have access to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economic and social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3 percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on imports that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position. On the other hand, hydro and coal are perhaps underutilized today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both.

Pakistan’s rising energy demand, according to the U.S. Department of State’s Paul Simons, creates opportunities for regional cooperation. To this end, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency convened a meeting a couple of years ago in Istanbul that produced an agreement on examining options for exporting Central Asian electricity to Pakistan. It should be noted here that US does not favorably look upon any Iran-Pakistan cooperation in the energy sector. At an Asia Program event organized by Wilson Center in 2006, Vladislav Vucetic of the World Bank provided a troubling assessment of the state of Pakistan’s electricity sector—demand is approaching maximum production capacity, while institutional capacity for policy development and implementation remains low. Worse, failing to resolve these problems may cause investment delays and hamper Pakistan’s economic growth. Sanjeev Minocha of the IFC, a major source of private sector financing, noted the paucity of domestic private sector initiatives in Pakistan. The IFC has sought to raise investor confidence through its funding of private Pakistani energy companies, including the new firm Dewan Petroleum. Ultimately, stated Minocha, it is crucial that investment projects take into account the interests of local communities.

In early 2008, Pakistan's industrial consumers are facing an electric power deficit of up to 3,600 megawatts (MW)due to low water levels at hydroelectric dams and damage to two main power lines attacked during the three days of violence following Bhutto's assassination. More than anything, this represents the failure of long term energy planning to go with the economic growth forecasts.

Among the temporary issues exacerbating the larger power crisis, the two main power transmission lines were blown up in January 2008 in Sind, creating a shortfall of 1,000 MW. The business community complain that lopsided and unplanned shutdowns have resulted in closures in almost all industries. Subsequent production losses will be reflected in further pressure on exports and lead to increased imports.

Water levels have fallen by 32% compared with last year, according to the Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO). Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil. PEPCO also blames independent power producers (IPPs) for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW on average out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks below the required minimum of 21 days.

While there are many economic successes of the Musharraf-Aziz administration in terms of reviving the Pakistani economy and putting it on a growth path again, the energy sector represents its biggest failure. This failure has the potential to threaten Pakistan's economic future, unless immediate steps are taken to bring this crisis under control over the next few years.