Friday, July 10, 2020

India-Iran-Afghanistan Axis Against Pakistan?

A JIT (Joint Investigation Team) report recently released by Sindh government in Pakistan has revealed that the infamous Karachi gangster Uzair Baloch worked for Iranian intelligence. Apparently, Uzair Baloch was also in contact with Indian intelligence agents working in Iran, according to Indian media reports. Baloch's interrogation led to the discovery and arrest of Indian undercover agent Kulbhushan Jadhav in Balochistan shortly after Baloch's arrest. Kulbhushan Jadhav has confessed to orchestrating deadly terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi.
He has said that India's RAW funneled money through Indian consulates in Jalalabad, Kandhar (Afghanistan) and  Zahidan (Iran) to BLA and TTP for terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. Targets of terror attacks included people, mosques, roads, port and Balochistan's Hazara Shia community.

L to R: Indian Prime Minister Modi, Iranian President Rouhani and Afghan President Ghani


Chabahar vs Gwadar:

Chabahar is a port being constructed by Indians in Iran. The stated goal of this project is to bypass Pakistan for India's trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia via Iran. Indian media have promoted Chabahar as a competitor to Gwadar Port which is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Indian government is openly hostile to CPEC and declared support for Baloch insurgents.  The leaders of Afghanistan, India and Iran have held regular summit meetings to promote Chabahar port project.

4,000 Indians in Chabahar:

There are 4,000 Indians working in Chabahar, Iran, according to Indian journalist Karan Thapar. Some of them, like Kulbhushan Jadhav, work undercover for Indian intelligence agency RAW.  It is hard to believe that the Iranian intelligence is not aware of the presence of undercover Indian agents among the 4,000 Indians working in Chabahar. After all, Jadhav had two passports, one in his own name and another in the name of Hussein Mubarak Patel. The Indian Express and Asian Age, both Indian publications, suggest that Jadhav had links with Uzair Baloch who has been convicted by for working for the Iranian intelligence in Pakistan.  Kulbhushan Jadhav has confessed to orchestrating deadly terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. He has said that India's RAW funneled money through Indian consulates in Jalalabad, Kandhar (Afghanistan) and  Zahidan (Iran) to BLA and TTP for terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. Targets of terror attacks included people, mosques, roads, port and Balochistan's Hazara Shia community.

Pakistan's Complaint to Iran:

Paskistan has complained to Iran about allowing Baloch insurgents to use Iranian territory to launch terrorist attacks in Pakistan after an attack  killed 14 people along Pakistan’s coast in 2019, according to Reuters.

“The training camps and logistical camps of this new alliance...are inside the Iranian border region,” Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told reporters in Islamabad. Qureshi said he has spoken to his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and conveyed to him the “anger of Pakistani nation”.

Karachi Stock Market Attack:

Four terrorists belonging to Baloch Liberation Army attacked the Pakistani stock exchange in Karachi on June 29, 2020, killing two guards and a policeman and wounding seven others before being shot dead. Pakistan believes that the attackers came from southeastern Afghanistan where they enjoy safe havens with the support of intelligence agencies like Afghan NDS and Indian RAW.

Qasem Soleimani:

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) commander General Qasem Soleimani who was assassinated by the United States in drone strike was particularly hostile toward Pakistan. In February, 2019, Soleimani threatened Pakistan. He boasted about Iran's "independent power and honor". Soleimani, known to be close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khanenai, reportedly had serious policy disagreement with the Rouhani government.  He said:

"I warn you not to test Iran and anyone who has tested Iran has received firm response. We are speaking to Pakistan with a friendly tone and we are telling that country not to allow their borders to become a source of insecurity for the neighboring countries..... Iran enjoys independent power and honor. Some countries have wealth, but no prowess. Trump tells the Al-Saud that if it hadn't been for the US support, Saudi Arabia would not have survived and Saudi Arabia's coalitions in the region have all ended in failure."

Soleimani's tone in this message to Pakistan is anything but "friendly".

Summary:

Recent release of Sindh government report reveals that Karachi gangster Uzair Baloch spied for Iran in Pakistan.  There are 4,000 Indians working in Chabahar, Iran, according to Indian journalist Karan Thapar. Some of them, like Kulbhushan Jadhav, work undercover for Indian intelligence agency RAW.  Chabahar is a port being constructed by Indians in Iran. The stated goal of this project is to bypass Pakistan for India's trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia via Iran. Indian media have promoted Chabahar as a competitor to Gwadar Port which is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Indian Express and Asian Age, both Indian publications, suggest that Jadhav had links with Uzair Baloch.  Kulbhushan Jadhav has confessed to orchestrating deadly terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. He has said that India's RAW funneled money through Indian consulates in Jalalabad, Kandhar (Afghanistan) and  Zahidan (Iran) to BLA and TTP for terror attacks in Balochistan and Karachi. Targets of terror attacks included people, mosques, roads, port and Balochistan's Hazara Shia community.

Here's Kulbhushan Jadhav's confession video:

https://youtu.be/nVp62OinTeU




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

General Soleimani's Hardline Against Pakistan

Iran-Pakistan Ties

Iran's Chabahar and Pakistan's Gwadar Ports

Indian RAW Agent Kulbhushan Jhadav Used Chabahar

Iran-Saudi Conflict

Pakistan's Nuclear Program

Iran Nuclear Deal

1971 India-Pakistan War

Chabahar vs Gwadar Ports

Did America Contribute to the Rise of ISIS?

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

27 comments:

Terry A. said...

Iran may just “ talk big “ & threaten Pakistan ( Since Pakistan has close ties & has always been a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia & the USA ) …….in reality they are little or no threat at all to Pakistan - Many may forget ( or choose to ignore ?? )
That the PAF ( Pakistan Air Force ) is equipped and trained on very advanced fighter jets ( F14 , 15 , 16’s etc ) & our Pilots trained by the USA are 2nd to NONE !! Our fighter Pilots have proved their superiority during skirmishes with the Indian Air Force ( despite being Outnumbered in the # of MIG - Russian & other planes the IAF has ) and we can quite confidently be sure that IF any Air Wars start with Iran ……Pakistan will prevail……….Does anyone dispute this ?…….If yes then state your views -

Pakistan is also far ahead of Iran in Nuclear Armaments & Technology…….so Iran can try to threaten them all it wants ……. ?

Also as I have mentioned before India is surrounded on its Northern Borders with Pakistan & China……So India is going to be Ultra Cautious about any moves made against either or both countries in future -

Riaz Haq said...


Terry: "Iran may just “ talk big “ & threaten Pakistan ( Since Pakistan has close ties & has always been a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia & the USA ) …….in reality they are little or no threat at all to Pakistan"

Notwithstanding the usual lip service about being "brothers", the fact is that Iran and Pakistan have been at odds since the 1980s.

First over Afghanistan, then over Pakistan's relations with Gulf Arab countries where millions of Pakistanis earn a living and send home billions of US$.

Iran-Pakistan relationship is an important relationship that needs to be carefully managed with eyes and ears open.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2017/08/iran-pakistan-ties-friends-or-foes.html

Riaz Haq said...

https://youtu.be/nVp62OinTeU


Jadhav: "...while crossing over into Pakistan I travelled all the way from Chahbahar in a private Taxi along with Rakesh to the Iranian-Pakistan border near Sarawan. From wherein I crossed into Pakistan along with Baloch Sub Nationals and after about an hour or so I was apprehended by the Pakistani authorities in Pakistan...........Research and Analysis Wing through Mr Anil Kumar has been abetting and financing and sponsoring a lot of activities within Balochistan and Sindh. The entire Hundi and Hawala operations are undertaken from Delhi and Mumbai via Dubai into Pakistan and during one such important transaction was the 40,000 dollars which was transferred to Baloch sub Nationals via Dubai. Also the finances which are coming into Balochistan and Sindh for various anti-national activities are coming through consulates in Jalalabad and Kandhar and the Consulate in Zahidan. These are very important consulates which are used by Research and Analysis Wing to transfer dollars into the Balochistan movement. And one such instance was where I was directly involved and I was observing the transaction was when 40,000 Dollars were recently transferred from India via Dubai to one such Baloch National operative within Pakistan. Research and Analysis Wing and Mr Anil Kumar on behalf of RAW had been sponsoring regularly the various terrorist activities within Pakistan. Especially Hazara Muslims, Shia Muslims who move around on pilgrimage between Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan were basically to be targeted and killed. They were already being done, it was being done but the level had to be raised to the very high level so that the movement completely stops. Then the targets on various workers of FWO who were conducting construction of various roads within Balochistan and the third major activity was the IED attacks which were being carried out by the Baloch sub nationals within Quetta, Turbat or various other cities of Balochistan.They were being directly sponsored by RAW. Mr Anil Kumar has been sponsoring sectarian violence across Sindh and Balochistan and also sponsoring various assassinations across this same region so that instability or some kind of fear is set into the mindsets of the people of Pakistan, and in one such process SSP Chaudhary was assassinated. This was a direct mention by Mr Anil Kumar to me. The various financing which subsequently happened for the TTP and various other Afghan anti Pakistani terrorist groups led to the attack by TTP on one of the Mehran Naval Bases in which a lot of damage was cost to the Pakistani Navy. Other sort of radar installation attack, the Sui pipeline gas attack, then attacks on civilian bus Stations where some I suppose Pakistani Nationals were being targeted by Sub Nationals and murdered and massacred so that a sort of disruption in the CPEC is done that was being funded and directly supported by Mr Anil Kumar. He wanted it to be raised to the next level so that complete disruption and complete stoppage of the Economic corridor between Gwadar and China is achieved. One of the operations which was being planned by RAW officials along with Baloch insurgents was a military style attack on Zahidan Pakistani consulate. The aim was to either attack it with a grenade or some kind of RPG or IED attack or then try to harm the consulate General or some kind of vicious attack on the Pakistani consulate in Zahidan.

Riaz Haq said...

#KulbhushanJadhav: #India's #RAW funneled money through #Indian consulates in #Jalalabad, #Kandhar & in Zahidan to #BLA & #TTP for #terror attacks in #Balochistan & #Karachi. Targets included people, mosques, roads, port & #Quetta's #Hazara #Shia community https://youtu.be/nVp62OinTeU

Suhail H. said...

Iran used to be closely allied to India for the physical onground destruction in Pakistan furthering India's strategy of "fighting" Pakistan by proxy means. Iranian initiative was led by the Iranian militant leader Qasim Sulaimani, maybe exceeding the policy limits set by the Ayatollah who was forced into heavy dependence on India for crude exports in the wake of American sanctions. With Modi's strong alliance with US and Qasim Sulaimani gone, Ayatollah found a substitute in China for survival, so the committed Iranian support to militancy ended, obviously China influencing the same. So Iran has now changed direction and provided the most open diplomatic support to Pakistani stance on Kashmir, along with Turkey. Afghan government is totally committed with India but with American withdrawal, Taliban will most likely take over thus ending the Afghan factor, In the regional alliances, India is losing its proxy fighters from Iran and Afghanistan, so destruction of Pakistan and creation of independent Sindh seems further off in the foreseeable future than in recent past.

Riaz Haq said...

Suhail: "Iranian initiative was led by the Iranian militant leader Qasim Sulaimani, maybe exceeding the policy limits set by the Ayatollah who was forced into heavy dependence on India for crude exports in the wake of American sanctions. With Modi's strong alliance with US and Qasim Sulaimani gone, Ayatollah found a substitute in China for survival, so the committed Iranian support to militancy ended, obviously China influencing the same."

Qasim Suleimani was definitely a powerful anti-Pakistan force in Iran. But there have been terror attacks in Pakistan, apparently from the Iranian soil as recently as April 2019, according to Pakistan government.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-iran/pakistan-asks-iran-to-act-on-militants-behind-baluchistan-killings-idUSKCN1RW0EQ

But no one has destroyed Pakistan, particularly Karachi, more than its own politicians. Crime bosses in Karachi operated with impunity with the blessings of PPP and MQM.

http://www.pakalumni.com/m/blogpost?id=1119293%3ABlogPost%3A80600

Riaz Haq said...

#China-#Iran Deal: #India is a big loser. Chabahar port is India’s counter to the #Gwadar port in #Pakistan that is part of China’s Belt and Road initiative(BRI), if China invests heavily in Iran the Chabahar port could lose its relevance. #CPEC https://www.wionews.com/india-news/as-china-eyes-multi-billion-dollar-iran-deal-indias-chabahar-port-may-lose-relevance-313054 @wionews

Indian View:

China has struck a deal with America's enemy - Iran. It's a $400 billion economic and security strategic partnership deal.

As always, China is using its chequebook to have its way. It has bought Iran over for $400 billion dollars. It is a 25-year strategic accord with an 18-page agreement that weds Iran to China for a quarter of a century.

Once it is signed, Iran will open its doors for Chinese investment not just in one or two sectors but across the Iranian economy. The Chinese presence in Iran would expand in banking, telecommunications, ports and railways, also more than a dozen projects will go to Chinese companies.

Beijing hopes to get cheap oil in return. China will walk away with a steady supply of Iranian oil at a heavily discounted rate for 25 years and this is just one side of the story of the economic aspect.

The deal also has a military dimension. There will be reportedly joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development, even intelligence sharing as part of the agreement.

The deal will fundamentally change Iran’s relationship with China. It will put Tehran in Beijing’s corner and India could see its influence diminish overtime.

The biggest threat is to the Chabahar port. It was seen as India’s counter to the Gwadar port in Pakistan that is part of China’s Belt and Road initiative(BRI), if China invests heavily in Iran the Chabahar port could lose its relevance.

However, it is hypothetical as of today. The Iran-China agreement reportedly has not been submitted for Parliament’s approval yet and hasn’t been made public. China hasn’t shared the details of the deal yet as well. The ministry of foreign affairs in Beijing was asked about it today and it didn’t share any information.

It is not yet clear if the top brass of the Communist Party has signed off on it but the details of the deal that have leaked are reportedly part of the “final version”. Iran is not hiding the fact that it is negotiating the agreement with China. On July 5, Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif indicated that the deal will happen and it will be presented before Iran's Parliament for approval.

The potential agreement is a big threat to India. Historically, India and Iran have enjoyed a close relationship. India was one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil but New Delhi stopped buying oil from Iran in 2019 after the United States slapped sanctions against Iran and refused to grant any waivers to India.

Now, Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran has failed. China went under the nose of the Americans and managed to negotiate a deal with Tehran that could create more flashpoints in West Asia and even cost India its relationship with Iran.

Riaz Haq said...

Iran drops India from Chabahar rail project, cites funding delay


Four years after India's IRCON and Iran railway signed an MoU to build the Chabahar - Zahedan railway, Iran starts project on its own, cites funding delays from India. The development comes as China finalises a massive 25-year, $400 billion strategic partnership deal with Iran, which could cloud India’s plans.


https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/iran-drops-india-from-chabahar-rail-project-cites-funding-delay/article32072428.ece

Riaz Haq said...

Ex #Indian Official @NavtejSarna:"China’s influence will facilitate better relations between Iran and Pakistan, already evident in the conciliatory attitude shown by Pakistan to militant attacks from across the border in Balochistan" #Iran #Pakistan #China https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/neither-east-nor-west-only-china/story-1R51QEx2HRos1s2RKNIPbM.html

Chinese investment in ports and railways can hamper India’s plans to get access to Central Asia and beyond through Iran. The report that India will no longer be part of the Chabahar-Zahidan railway project foreshadows this scenario. Iran’s ambassador in Islamabad has spoken of a “golden ring” of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey and of a western arm to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)+ that would link Gwadar and Chabahar to China by rail through Pakistan. Further, our own economic limitations and the shadow of US sanctions will make it difficult for Indian companies to compete in Iran, particularly if the hundred proposed projects are aligned to a Chinese economic paradigm.

is only cold comfort to India. China’s increased political and economic influence on Tehran can squeeze us on several fronts.

First, Tehran has watched our growing proximity to the US and Israel with a resentful sullenness. The cutting of oil imports and delays in project implementation have further shown the limits of the bilateral relationship; “civilisational links” can only take us only so far and no more. Iran’s pact with China will strengthen the perception that we are in “the other camp”. Given our energy dependence and large diaspora, great power rivalry would not be our preferred game in West Asia.

Second, China’s influence will facilitate better relations between Iran and Pakistan, already evident in the conciliatory attitude shown by Pakistan to militant attacks from across the border in Balochistan. The two could also narrow their differences on Afghanistan, with a direct impact on India’s interests.

Third, Chinese investment in ports and railways can hamper India’s plans to get access to Central Asia and beyond through Iran. The report that India will no longer be part of the Chabahar-Zahidan railway project foreshadows this scenario. Iran’s ambassador in Islamabad has spoken of a “golden ring” of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey and of a western arm to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)+ that would link Gwadar and Chabahar to China by rail through Pakistan. Further, our own economic limitations and the shadow of US sanctions will make it difficult for Indian companies to compete in Iran, particularly if the hundred proposed projects are aligned to a Chinese economic paradigm.

Fourth, even if the Chinese do not get a major slice of Chabahar, they are keen to participate in the development of Bandar-e-Jask, the port outside the Straits of Hormuz. Iran envisages Jask as its main oil-loading point in the near future; it can then close the Straits without harming its own exports. In a worst-case scenario, Jask could become another Chinese dual-use port and with Gwadar and Djibouti threaten India’s energy and maritime security in the Arabian Sea.

All of this may not happen, but we cannot afford to wait for the Majlis to kill this deal, or for Joe Biden to become US president and wean Iran away from China. Our interests are immediate: A strong outreach to Iran with expedited work on Chabahar and its integration into the North-South Transport Corridor as well as a vigorous follow-up on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s successful 2015 Central Asian visit would be timely initiatives to consider.

Riaz Haq said...

Indian subversion in Pakistan a lost cause
Indian support to proxies in Pakistan’s neighborhood stands exposed and the world is well aware of that

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2254705/indian-subversion-in-pakistan-a-lost-cause


The below-mentioned statements of Indian political leaders substantiate Pakistan’s apprehensions about India’s involvement in terrorism in Pakistan. They also confirm that India plans and initiates subversive propaganda apart from state sponsored terrorism:

= Modi in his Independence Day address of 15 Aug 2016 has boasted that people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Azad Kashmir had thanked him a lot in past few days.

= Late Manohar Parrikar, then Indian Defence Minister, had said that India will use terrorism to counter terrorism from other countries pointing towards Pakistan.

= More recently, the Republic TV mouthpiece, Major Gaurav Arya, talked of his links to the BLA and other terrorist organisations operating in Balochistan.

Nowadays, the Indian media is giving a lot of space to so-called Pakistani dissidents to advance its agenda of subversion against Pakistan.

Why we call it a lost cause? There are three major factors: Afghanistan’s changing situation; Indian periphery waking up to Indian state-sponsored terrorism and political interference; and more recent, the Ladakh blunder.

Taking help from our previously published articles in newspapers, we would like to elaborate these three factors:

After 9/11, India found an expanding space in Pakistan’s neighborhood to apply all strands of Chankaya’s Mandala theory through a sophisticated hybrid war. The South Block head-honchos thought that a nuclear Pakistan could be finally eroded by their proxies in Afghanistan and the game started in earnest through expanding operations of RAW in collaboration with hostile intelligence agencies operating from Afghan soil. The target was simple: keep Durand Line on fire by sowing seeds of hate and animosity between Afghanistan and Pakistan and strategically suffocate Pakistan to an extent that it becomes an unviable state. No wonder India recently unleashed the ethno fascists or fake sub-nationalists to create an illusion of instability in FATA.

India took a lot of pain and effort to develop and invest in building a terror network along with some hostile intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and the Iran. Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav (the top RAW gun and the Bluebird) used both Afghan and Iranian soils to foment terror in Pakistan. Indian support to defunct terror entities like the BLA and the BRA and chaos generators like fake sub-nationalists of FATA are no more hidden from the eyes of the world.

A retired Indian Major General Harsha Kakar while writing in The Statesman with the title, “Who is responsible for Afghanistan Mess” talked of growing anxiety in the Indian Establishment, where he criticize President Trump for the decision to pull out of Afghanistan and urged the military hawks in Washington to continue the war, just because it favours Indian nefarious designs. The General was almost comic when he compared Afghan withdrawal with the Vietnam war and tried to arouse the ghost of Saigon. The reality, of course, is different: the Indian Miltablishment and RAW, after playing a long and dirty game in Afghanistan, feels its investment in drowning in Kabul River.

Indeed there are geopolitical consequences for India: It sees the threat of busting of the terror network of RAW in a number of consulates used to keep destabilising Pakistan; something similar to what happened in Sri Lanka, when LTTE Generalissimo Prabharkaran was killed and a trove of RAW’s terror network to support LTTE was discovered from the Mulailtivu Forests and Jaffna Peninsula. The façade of Indian investment and development in Afghanistan has started crumbling as more stories about how Indian military and RAW directly took part in military operations against Taliban fighters are emerging. No wonder Indian CDS, Bipin Rawat pointed out the need for talking to the Taliban during Raisina Dialogue held in New Delhi.

Riaz Haq said...

Indian subversion in Pakistan a lost cause
Indian support to proxies in Pakistan’s neighborhood stands exposed and the world is well aware of that

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2254705/indian-subversion-in-pakistan-a-lost-cause


The below-mentioned statements of Indian political leaders substantiate Pakistan’s apprehensions about India’s involvement in terrorism in Pakistan. They also confirm that India plans and initiates subversive propaganda apart from state sponsored terrorism:

= Modi in his Independence Day address of 15 Aug 2016 has boasted that people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Azad Kashmir had thanked him a lot in past few days.

= Late Manohar Parrikar, then Indian Defence Minister, had said that India will use terrorism to counter terrorism from other countries pointing towards Pakistan.

= More recently, the Republic TV mouthpiece, Major Gaurav Arya, talked of his links to the BLA and other terrorist organisations operating in Balochistan.

Nowadays, the Indian media is giving a lot of space to so-called Pakistani dissidents to advance its agenda of subversion against Pakistan.

Why we call it a lost cause? There are three major factors: Afghanistan’s changing situation; Indian periphery waking up to Indian state-sponsored terrorism and political interference; and more recent, the Ladakh blunder.

Taking help from our previously published articles in newspapers, we would like to elaborate these three factors:

After 9/11, India found an expanding space in Pakistan’s neighborhood to apply all strands of Chankaya’s Mandala theory through a sophisticated hybrid war. The South Block head-honchos thought that a nuclear Pakistan could be finally eroded by their proxies in Afghanistan and the game started in earnest through expanding operations of RAW in collaboration with hostile intelligence agencies operating from Afghan soil. The target was simple: keep Durand Line on fire by sowing seeds of hate and animosity between Afghanistan and Pakistan and strategically suffocate Pakistan to an extent that it becomes an unviable state. No wonder India recently unleashed the ethno fascists or fake sub-nationalists to create an illusion of instability in FATA.

India took a lot of pain and effort to develop and invest in building a terror network along with some hostile intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and the Iran. Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav (the top RAW gun and the Bluebird) used both Afghan and Iranian soils to foment terror in Pakistan. Indian support to defunct terror entities like the BLA and the BRA and chaos generators like fake sub-nationalists of FATA are no more hidden from the eyes of the world.

A retired Indian Major General Harsha Kakar while writing in The Statesman with the title, “Who is responsible for Afghanistan Mess” talked of growing anxiety in the Indian Establishment, where he criticize President Trump for the decision to pull out of Afghanistan and urged the military hawks in Washington to continue the war, just because it favours Indian nefarious designs. The General was almost comic when he compared Afghan withdrawal with the Vietnam war and tried to arouse the ghost of Saigon. The reality, of course, is different: the Indian Miltablishment and RAW, after playing a long and dirty game in Afghanistan, feels its investment in drowning in Kabul River.

Indeed there are geopolitical consequences for India: It sees the threat of busting of the terror network of RAW in a number of consulates used to keep destabilising Pakistan; something similar to what happened in Sri Lanka, when LTTE Generalissimo Prabharkaran was killed and a trove of RAW’s terror network to support LTTE was discovered from the Mulailtivu Forests and Jaffna Peninsula. The façade of Indian investment and development in Afghanistan has started crumbling as more stories about how Indian military and RAW directly took part in military operations against Taliban fighters are emerging. No wonder Indian CDS, Bipin Rawat pointed out the need for talking to the Taliban during Raisina Dialogue held in New Delhi.

Riaz Haq said...

#Bangladesh PM refusing to meet #Indian envoy to #Dhaka despite repeated requests over 2 months. Hasina has ordered slow-down of all #India funded project while #Chinese funded projects are fast-tracked in BD. #Modi's #Hindutva rhetoric is affecting ties.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/sheikh-hasina-failed-to-meet-indian-envoy-despite-requests-dhaka-daily/article32187068.ece

All Indian projects in Bangladesh have slowed down since the re-election of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2019.
A prominent newspaper of Bangladesh has said Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not meet India’s High Commissioner despite repeated requests for a meeting in the last four months.
Bhorer Kagoj, a prominent daily, has reported that all Indian projects have slowed down since the re-election of Prime Minister Hasina in 2019 with Chinese infrastructure projects receiving more support from Dhaka.
“Despite India's concern, Bangladesh has given the contract of building an airport terminal in Sylhet to a Chinese company. Indian High Commissioner Riva Ganguly Das tried for four months to get an appointment with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh but did not get it. Bangladesh has not even sent a note of appreciation to India in response to Indian assistance for the COVID-19 pandemic”, said the newspaper's editor Shyamal Dutta in an article on the recent tilt of Dhaka towards Pakistan and China.

Riaz Haq said...

#UN says thousands of anti-Pakistan militants in #Afghanistan. #Pakistan being attacked by #terrorists, particularly linked to the #TTP or Jamaat-ul-Ahrar or Lashkar-e-Islam, as well as those with the Baluchistan Liberation Army (#BLA). https://news.yahoo.com/un-says-thousands-anti-pakistan-102605170.html?soc_src=hl-viewer&soc_trk=tw via @YahooNews

A U.N. report says more than 6,000 Pakistani insurgents are hiding in Afghanistan, most belonging to the outlawed Pakistani Taliban group responsible for attacking Pakistani military and civilian targets.

The report released this week said the group, known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP), has linked up with the Afghan-based affiliate of the Islamic State group. Some of TTP's members have even joined the IS affiliate, which has its headquarters in eastern Afghanistan.

The Afghan government did not respond Sunday to requests by The Associated Press for comment.

The report said IS in Afghanistan, known as IS in Khorasan province, has been hit hard by Afghan security forces as well as U.S. and NATO forces, and even on occasion by the Afghan Taliban. The report was prepared by the U.N. analytical and sanctions monitoring team, which tracks terrorist groups around the world.

The report estimated the membership of IS in Afghanistan at 2,200, and while its leadership has been depleted, IS still counts among its leaders a Syrian national Abu Said Mohammad al-Khorasani. The report also said the monitoring team had received information that two senior Islamic State commanders, Abu Qutaibah and Abu Hajar al-Iraqi, had recently arrived in Afghanistan from the Middle East.

“Although in territorial retreat, (the Islamic State) remains capable of carrying out high-profile attacks in various parts of the country, including Kabul. It also aims to attract Taliban fighters who oppose the agreement with the United States,” the report said, referring to a U.S. peace deal signed with the Taliban in February.

That deal was struck to allow the U.S. to end its 19-year involvement in Afghanistan, and calls on the Taliban to guarantee its territory will not be used by terrorist groups. The deal is also expected to guarantee the Taliban's all-out participation in the fight against IS.

The second and perhaps most critical part of the agreement calls for talks between the Taliban and Kabul's political leadership.

Late Saturday, the U.S. State Department issued a statement saying its peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was again shuttling through the region seeking to jump start those negotiations, which have been repeatedly postponed as both sides squabble over a prisoner release program.

The U.S.-backed deal calls for the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners and the Taliban to free 1,000 government and military personnel as a so-called good will gesture ahead of talks. Until now the government is refusing to release nearly 600 Taliban prisoners it calls high-profile criminals and has offered to free alternatives. The Taliban have refused.

“The parties are closer than ever to the start of intra-Afghan negotiations, the key next step to ending Afghanistan’s 40-year long war," said the U.S. State Department statement. “Although significant progress has been made on prisoner exchanges, the issue requires additional effort to fully resolve.”

The Taliban's political spokesman earlier this week said it was ready to hold talks with Kabul's political leaders after the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha at the end of the month, providing the prisoner release is completed.

A big worry for Pakistan is the presence in Afghanistan of militants, particularly linked to the TTP or Jamaat-ul-Ahrar or Lashkar-e-Islam, as well as those with the Baluchistan Liberation Army, which has taken responsibility for high-profile attacks this month in the southern Sindh province as well as in southwestern Baluchistan Province. Several Pakistan military personnel have been killed this month in southwestern Baluchistan province in battle with insurgents.

Riaz Haq said...

#Bangladesh-#Pakistan ties: #ImranKhan-#Hasina Talks Stir Unease in #Delhi. #India suspects #China's role https://www.deccanherald.com/national/pakistan-bangladesh-ties-imran-hasina-talk-stirs-unease-in-india-mea-suspects-chinas-role-865664.html @deccanherald

A phone call between the Prime Ministers of Pakistan and Bangladesh earlier this week stirred unease in New Delhi, which suspected China's hidden hand behind the rare outreach.


Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan called up his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina on July 22. A Bangladesh government spokesperson in Dhaka said that Hasina briefed Khan about the Covid-19 pandemic and the flood situation in her country in resp...

Riaz Haq said...

Iran recruited #Karachi gangster Uzair Baloch hurts #Pakistan-#Iran ties. "They don't simply try to penetrate typical networks that surround singular theological interests, for instance the Shia community. Iranians have historically used criminal networks" https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/pakistan-iran-gangster-uzair-baloch-spy-diplomacy

Earlier this month, a special investigations team in Pakistan revealed that a much-feared Karachi gangster had confessed to spying for Iran.

Uzair Baloch, the leader of the Peoples' Aman Committee (PAC) group, reportedly fessed up to spying for Iranian intelligence agencies in 2014.

The Sindh province's Home Department released a report on 6 July detailing allegations that Baloch had provided "secret information and sketches regarding army installations and officials to foreign agents".

But why are these revelations coming out now? And what does the case reveal about the complicated relations between Tehran and Islamabad?

A Joint Interrogation Team (JIT) composed of intelligence officers and law enforcement officials has brought charges against Baloch, who was detained in April 2017, for 55 crimes including extortion, drug trafficking, kidnapping and espionage.

The PAC was in 2008 nominally founded as a support group for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the centre-left political party that has ruled Pakistan for much of its post-independence history. Notorious gangster Sardar Abdul Baloch aka Rehman Dakait, its principle founder, was killed in a police encounter in 2009. Following Dakait's death, Uzair Baloch took over the
leadership role.

Baloch's violent and illegal activities in Karachi, the biggest metropolis in Pakistan, led to a severe crackdown on organised crime, subsequently pushing the interior ministry to ban the PAC in 2011 under the Anti-Terrorism Act. Amid a military and police crackdown, Baloch fled to Iran in 2013, thanks to Iranian residency documents he obtained in 2006 via a relative, the JIT report read.

According to the same report, once Baloch settled in Iran after leaving Karachi, he was in contact with a man named Hajji Nasir, who arranged to have him move to Tehran.

While Nasir reportedly offered to help Baloch move to the Iranian capital and grant him free accommodation, it was only later that he shared that he was on good terms with Iranian intelligence agencies and could arrange a meeting.

It was then that Baloch "shared information about certain army installations and armed officials," according to the JIT report.

There is much confusion regarding Baloch's arrest. In 2014 Interpol arrested Baloch in Dubai, then the military in Pakistan announced that he was in custody in 2016. As his trial was held at a closed military court, therefore, no details have been shared publicly regarding specific details of the information shared with the Iranian intelligence agencies.

The Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in Islamabad has not responded to Middle East Eye's repeated requests for comment. The Iranian consul-general in Karachi meanwhile declined to comment on the case.

Philip Smyth, a fellow at The Washington Institute think-tank, told Middle East Eye that the collaboration of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with Baloch was part of a broader strategy of recruitment of criminal gang leaders.

"They don't simply try to penetrate typical networks that surround singular theological interests, for instance the Shia [Muslim] community. Iranians have historically used criminal networks," Smyth said, pointing to documents made public by WikiLeaks alleging Iran tried to recruit Mexican criminal syndicate Los Zetas to assassinate a Saudi diplomat in the US in 2011.

Riaz Haq said...

Hamid Ansari, ex VP of #India & ex ambassador in #Tehran, accused of failing to protect #India #intelligence #RAW's undercover operatives in #Iran in 4 major incidents of kidnapping by SAVAK (aka Sazman-e Ettela’at va Amniat-e Melli-e Iran) agents.
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/ex-raw-officers-want-pm-act-hamid-ansaris-anti-national-acts


Former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officers had sought an inquiry against former Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari for what they have called “damaging R&AW operations” while he was posted as Ambassador in Tehran, Iran. They now hope that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will get into the truth of the entire matter. These officers, who were posted in Tehran during Ansari’s tenure, had first approached the PM in August 2017. Ansari was posted in Tehran from 1990-1992.

One of the officers, N.K. Sood, who retired from the agency in 2010, told The Sunday Guardian that Ansari even went to the extent of recommending the closing down of R&AW stations in Iran.


Sood listed multiple instances which showed that Ansari, during his tenure in Tehran, did not fulfill his duty as was expected from him.

In May 1991, one Indian official, Sandeep Kapoor, was kidnapped from the Tehran airport, ostensibly by SAVAK. When the issue was brought before Ansari, he played it down despite the R&AW station chief—who was in Dubai when the incident took place, but flew back considering the emergency situation—briefing him personally on the matter. “Ansari did not take any steps to trace Kapoor, but sent a confidential report to the MEA that Kapoor was missing and that his activities were suspected in Iran as he was said to be involved with some local woman. He deliberately failed to mention that R&AW had reported about involvement of SAVAK in this case,” Sood said.

Three days later, an anonymous phone call to the Indian Embassy informed the receiver that Kapoor is lying at a particular place on the road side. He was drugged, the effects of which lasted for several years. Despite R&AW’s advise to report and lodge a protest with the Iranian foreign office, Ansari did not take any action.

In August 1991, R&AW was keeping eyes on Kashmiri youths who were regularly visiting Qom, a religious center of Iran, and were taking arms training. Despite the old R&AW staff advising him not to do so, the new station chief of R&AW told Ansari about his operation. “Ansari gave the name of the officer who was handling this operation, D.B. Mathur, to the Iranian Foreign office, who passed it to SAVAK, and Mathur was picked up by them on a morning while coming to the Indian embassy. By the evening, it was clear that he has been picked up by SAVAK,” Sood recalled.

This incident has also been mentioned in the letter that has been shared with Prime Minister Modi. When Ansari refused to take any concrete action, apart from registering a missing report about Mathur with the Iranian Foreign office and sharing it with Delhi without mentioning that he was likely to be picked by SAVAK, the R&AW officers, on the second day, through a scene out of a spy movie, managed to inform Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Delhi, who then told this to P.V. Narasimha Rao, the then Prime Minister, which led to the release of Mathur from Evin prison, where he was kept, on the fourth day of his kidnapping, but he was given 72 hours to leave the country. Once inside the Indian Embassy, Mathur disclosed what had happened to him and how the SAVAK was already aware of the identity of Sood and the station chief, which the letter says can be attributed to Ansari sharing it with the Iranian Foreign Office.

These officers believe and are extremely hopeful that PM Modi will order a thorough probe into this issue, which damaged India’s strategic capabilities deeply.

The Sunday Guardian also reached out to the office of V.P. Ansari through emails, seeking his response on the charges leveled by the R&AW officers. However, no response was received till the time of the story going to press.

Riaz Haq said...

Iran Primer: Iran and the Gulf States - Tehran Bureau | FRONTLINE | PBS


https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/10/iran-primer-iran-and-the-gulf-states.html

Modern Iranian leaders -- from shahs to ayatollahs -- have sought a dominant role in the Gulf region because of Iran's economic and demographic weight, as well as the value of Persian Gulf oil shipping lanes. In the 1960s and 1970s, Iran was the preeminent Gulf power and guarantor of U.S. national interests in the region.
Iran's 1979 revolution dramatically altered Tehran's regional stance. Revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini called for the overthrow of existing pro-American monarchs in the Gulf. Iraq's 1980 invasion of Iran pulled the Gulf Arabs and the United States into the brutal eight-year conflict, mostly on Baghdad's side.

The end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, and the rise of more pragmatic leadership in Tehran led to an easing of tensions between Iran and the Gulf Arab states. The two subsequent "Gulf wars" in 1991 and 2003 weakened Iraq, thereby strengthening Iran's relative regional power. Iran's relationship with the smaller states of the lower Persian Gulf has historically been centered on trade. The emirate of Dubai has emerged as Iran's most vital Gulf trade partner and an occasional outlet to skirt sanctions.

--------------


The future

* An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could spark a wider regional war with dramatic repercussions for the Persian Gulf region, leading to a skyrocketing oil prices, and potential conflict between Iran and America's key Gulf Arab allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

* The world's major oil players have largely abandoned Iran, but are active in Iraq. If Iraq achieves its ambitious oil targets, it could surpass Iran as the Gulf's second largest producer within a decade. This would have repercussions for the regional balance of power.

* The Iran-Dubai trade relationship will be tested by sanctions and U.S. pressure. But historic links are too deep to imagine a drastic reduction in trade, even though Iranian merchants may not feel as welcome as in the past.

Riaz Haq said...

Pro-#Azerbaijan protestors in #Tabriz demand closure of #Iran-#Armenia border. #Azeris, making up majority in Iranian cities like Ardabil, Tabriz and Urmia, support Azerbaijan. Iran govt supports #Armenia. #Turkey supports Azerbaijan #KarabakhisAzerbaijan http://sabahdai.ly/_fsa

Ethnic Azerbaijanis, who constitute a large portion of the population in Iranian cities like Ardabil, Tabriz and Urmia, poured onto the streets Thursday, in support of Baku amid clashes in the Armenian-occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The protesting groups demanded Iranian authorities close the country’s border with Armenia and the Norduz border gate, through which military equipment have reportedly been transferred to Armenia.

Video footage circulating on social media showed Iranian police breaking up the protests, using tear gas and rubber bullets.

Earlier Wednesday, Iranian authorities arrested at least 11 pro-Azerbaijan protesters, according to the Iranian Human Rights Activists News Agency.

It said police forces used tear gas to disperse activists, who had gathered at a park in Ardabil in solidarity with Azerbaijan in the wake of Armenian attacks.

Three activists were also wounded, it added.

Azerbaijani Turks constitute at least one-third of Iran’s 81.8 million population, according to different estimates. It was approximately 30 million according to Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization's (UNPO) 2017 data.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter stalemate over the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The fiercest clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in years, over the occupied region, ignited Sunday. As of Thursday at least 130 deaths have been confirmed as fighting spilled over into the fifth day.

Four U.N. Security Council and two U.N. General Assembly resolutions, as well as many international organizations, demand the withdrawal of the occupying Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh.

The OSCE Minsk Group – co-chaired by France, Russia and the U.S. – was formed in 1992 to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, but to no avail.

Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the U.N. and virtually every government in the world except Armenia.

Riaz Haq said...

#Iran kicks out #Indian gas company. OVL and its partners had offered to invest up to $11 billion. #India #energy http://toi.in/5RU9ca/a24gk via @timesofindia

Iran has decided to prefer domestic companies over foreign firms

Riaz Haq said...

Demand for #Pakistan Visas Sets Off Deadly Stampede in #Afghanistan, Leaving At Least 14 #Afghans dead! https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/world/asia/afghanistan-stampede-visas-pakistan.html?smid=tw-share

A stampede in a crowded stadium in eastern Afghanistan on Wednesday left at least 12 women dead, officials said. The women were among thousands of people hoping to get visas to enter Pakistan for medical treatment.

Many people in Afghanistan, a war-ravaged country with minimal health care facilities, cross the border into Pakistan for treatment. But since the spring, Pakistan had drastically reduced the number of visas that it issued to Afghans, hoping to minimize the spread of the coronavirus.

Pakistan recently announced that it would resume issuing visas at a more normal rate. But there was so much pent-up demand that thousands of people gathered before dawn at the soccer stadium, in the city of Jalalabad, waiting for tokens to be given out that would enable them to apply for visas. Just 1,000 visas were to be processed that day.

About 10,000 people were in the stadium when the stampede occurred, said Attaullah Khogyani, a spokesman for the governor of Nangarhar Province, which includes Jalalabad. The stampede began as the tokens were being distributed to the crowd, Mr. Khogyani said.


“There were several thousand women,” he said. “All of those killed were ill women who were trying to get a visa and go for their treatment to Pakistan.”


ImageA man injured in the stampede arrived for treatment at a Jalalabad hospital.

Pakistan, despite its tense relations with the Afghan government over its tacit support for the Taliban, is a key destination for Afghans. About three million Afghan refugees live there, and until the pandemic struck, there was a constant flow of Afghans across the border, seeking work or medical care.

The Pakistani Consulate in Jalalabad, which distributes visas for residents of seven eastern and southeastern provinces, recently reopened after being closed for nearly eight months because of Pakistan’s coronavirus travel restrictions. Mohammad Sadiq, Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, had recently announced a new visa regime that would ease the process for issuing long-term, multiple-entry visas for Afghans.

“The charges of corruption and mishandling of applicants in recent years had tarnished the image of Pakistan and caused hardship to visa applicants,” Mr. Sadiq said in announcing the new visa policy.

Continue reading the main story

The provincial authorities in Nangarhar announced the new procedure for distributing tokens to visa applicants, which was meant to discourage crowding in light of the heavy demand. Under the rules, the first 1,000 people would get tokens and the rest would have to try their luck the next day, Mr. Khogyani said.

“The stampede broke out in the women’s section,” said an eyewitness, Abdullah, who like many Afghans goes by one name. “Then police arrived and the situation got worse. I escaped from the stadium. When I came back, several women were lying on the ground and they were dead.”

-------------

Other security officials put the toll even higher. “I have counted 50 dead bodies and I have got tired of counting,” said Karimullah Bek, a pro-government militia commander in the area.

Riaz Haq said...

Foreign Minister Zarif visits #Pakistan as Iran celebrates post-#Trump era. #Tehran appears to be seeking Pakistan’s assistance in bypassing US #sanctions that have pushed the Iranian #economy to the verge of collapse. #SaudiArabia #UnitedStates #UAE https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/11/iran-zarif-visit-pakistan-celebrate-post-trump-era.html

Iran’s foreign minister is in Islamabad to discuss a range of issues with Pakistani officials, as US President Donald Trump’s impending departure seems to have opened new windows of diplomacy for the Islamic Republic.


Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has landed in neighboring Pakistan for a two-day visit in which he will discuss bilateral and regional issues with his counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Prime Minister Imran Khan and army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa.

Given the composition of the delegation accompanying the Iranian foreign minister, Tehran seemed to be after Pakistan’s assistance in bypassing US sanctions that have pushed the Iranian economy to the verge of collapse. As a US ally in the region, Islamabad has at different intervals offered to play the mediator’s role between Tehran and Washington under the Trump administration.

The trip, which fit into Iran’s doctrine of “neighbors first,” also marked the Iranian top diplomat’s first foreign mission after Donald Trump became the outgoing president of the United States following his defeat to the Democratic camp’s nominee, Joe Biden. Trump’s departure has brought hopes to the government of President Hassan Rouhani in Tehran for new openings after four years of relentless “maximum pressure” from Washington.

What further highlights the importance of Zarif’s visit is Islamabad’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, a regional foe of the Islamic Republic. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2016 after a group of Iranian “rogue” hard-liners stormed the Saudi Embassy in the Iranian capital. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are believed to be part of Zarif’s agenda in Islamabad, as the Pakistani government also maintains friendly ties with Riyadh, with potential deal-brokering capabilities that could bring the two rivals to the negotiating table.

Before his visit to Pakistan, Zarif sent a “sincere message” to neighbors: “Trump's gone in 70 days. But we'll remain here forever. Betting on outsiders to provide security is never a good gamble.” Iran’s rivals in the region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been clinching with the Trump administration multiple arms deals with the aim of curbing a perceived Iranian security threat. “We extend our hand to our neighbors for dialog to resolve differences,” Zarif added in his message. Iran has on multiple occasions offered unconditional talks to bury the hatchet with Saudi Arabia, but no breakthrough has emerged so far.


Iran’s political circles are debating the opportunities that Trumps’ farewell could bring to the Islamic Republic after years of exclusion prompted by the US president’s pressure on anyone seeking business with Tehran. But a Biden administration might not necessarily be as promising as the Iranians had pictured it, either. There are fears in Tehran that before the closure of his term, Trump will inundate the Islamic Republic with a “flood of new sanctions” that could grant Biden an upper hand in any negotiations with Iran.

Picking up on that, the hard-liners, who have always been skeptical of any US-Iran relations, are arguing these days that Trump’s “iron fist” will remain firmly in place even under Biden. It’s the same fist, only hidden by “velvet” gloves, according to ultraconservative daily, Javan.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan to complete 2600-km Pak-Afghan border fencing within two months. The $500m project also includes border forts, surveillance, intrusion detection system. Pakistan is fencing its borders with Afghanistan & Iran to curb smuggling, terrorists’ infiltration, illegal crossings

https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/pakistan-says-afghan-border-fence-nearly-complete

The pair of three-meter-high mesh fences, a couple of meters apart, are filled and topped with coils of razor wire, running through rugged terrain and snow-covered, treacherous mountains at elevations as high as 4,000 meters.

The ISPR attributed a "massive decrease" in the number of terrorism-related incidents in Pakistan to the border security project. Pakistani troops involved in building the fence have also come under deadly militant attacks from the Afghan side and in some cases clashes with Afghan security forces.

Afghanistan has historically disputed the 1893 British colonial era demarcation and Afghan officials still refer to the border as the Durand Line. Pakistan rejects the objections and maintains it inherited the international frontier after gaining independence from Britain in 1947.

Under the military-led border management project, Islamabad has also upgraded several formal crossings with Afghanistan to further facilitate bilateral and transit trade activities with the war-ravaged landlocked country.

ranian Border

The Pakistani army is also working on enhancing the security of the country’s more than 900-kilometer southwestern border with Iran. It has already fenced off about 30% of the frontier and the project is expected to be finished by the end of 2021, according to the ISPR.

The largely porous border separates Pakistan’s Baluchistan and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan provinces, both experiencing militant attacks blamed on fugitive separatists hiding on Pakistani and Iranian soils

Riaz Haq said...

The Guardian of
Pakistan’s Shia
By Alex Vatanka

https://www.hudson.org/content/researchattachments/attachment/1270/vatanka.pdf

The town of parachinar, located in a far-flung corner of western
Pakistan, is fondly called by some Iranian Shiites “Little Iran.” The majority of the town’s residents are ethnic Pashtuns who belong to the Shia
faith. It is also the capital of Kurram Agency, one of the seven tribal districts that make up the politically volatile Federally Administrated Tribal
Areas. In recent years, Parachinar has effectively been under siege by Sunni militants.
Since 2007, waves of sectarian violence have killed hundreds of Shia from Parachinar.
In reaction to this, Parachinar has become a potent symbol of Shia suffering, and the
plight of its Shia residents has become a rallying cry for elements of the Iranian
regime.
The tragic state of affairs in Parachinar may be seen as a reflection of the mounting sectarian strife which has threatened in recent years to engulf the Pakistani nation.
It may also be used as a yardstick to measure the willingness and ability of the Islam -
ic Republic of Iran to protect Shia communities wherever they might be. After all,
the Tehran regime is often looked upon as the global champion and guardian of the
Shia. And historically, the Islamic Republic has actively supported Shiite militancy
internationally, including in Pakistan.

-------------

In the end, Tehran can disguise the international pursuit of its political objectives
as religious outreach, but Iran’s influence among Pakistan’s Shia should not be exaggerated. Iran’s clerical government and its religious practices are by no means acceptable or appealing to all the Shia of Pakistan. Moreover, because Tehran’s actions
do not match the rhetoric of some elements in the Islamic Republic, Pakistan’s Shia
are increasingly unlikely to view Iran as a reliable guardian or benefactor. Indeed,
Tehran’s reaction to the siege of Parachinar is a good example of the political cautiousness of Iran’s clerical rulers, and of the fact that Iranian support for the Shia in
Pakistan has become as much, if not more, a product of geopolitical calculation as it
is of religious sympathy or Islamist ideology.
Despite this, Iran’s outreach to the Shia of Pakistan has historically fluctuated as a
function of sectarian relations inside Pakistan and of Tehran’s overall relations with
Islamabad. When sectarian tensions rise in Pakistan and Tehran-Islamabad relations
are poor, Iran’s support for the Pakistani Shia has historically been at its strongest. In
the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, for example, when sectarian tensions and violence
expanded in Pakistan, the Iranian regime became a strident supporter of the Shia
and of militant Shiism. Now, given the deteriorating state of Shia-Sunni relations in
Pakistan, and also given the fact that Iran’s clerical establishment is under attack by
“Shiite nationalists” at home, conditions may be ripe for Iran to take renewed interest in the plight of Pakistan’s Shia once again.

Riaz Haq said...

Leader (Ayatollah) rebukes Foreign Minister Zarif over leaked remarks on foreign policy

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/05/02/651765/Iran-Leader-Ayatollah-Khamenei-rebuke-Zarif-IRGC-Quds-Force-General-Soleimani

This force carries out the policy of the Islamic Republic. The Western countries persistently want the foreign policy of Iran to come under their flag. They have been wanting this for years. Iran was under the Western domination both in later years of the Qajar dynasty and under the Pahlavi rule. The [Islamic] Revolution freed Iran of their dominion and now they are trying to restore that dominion,” Ayatollah Khamenei said.

It is because of this opposition that the West frowns on any indication of such active foreign policy such as the Islamic Republic’s expanding its ties with China, Russia, and also its neighbors, the Leader stated.

The Leader said, “I know many cases in which when high-ranking officials of neighboring countries wanted to visit Iran, the Americans were opposed. We cannot step back in the face of their demand. We must act forcefully.”

Still referring to Zarif’s comments, Ayatollah Khamenei said some remarks “are repetition of the US [officials’] remarks. Suppose that Americans have been angry with Iran’s [regional] influence for many years. They were angry with Martyr Soleimani for this reason and this is why they martyred him.”

“We must not say something that would bring to mind the idea that we are repeating their remarks, both about the Quds Force and about Martyr Soleimani himself,” the Leader emphasized.

General Solaimeni was martyred along with his companions in a United States’ drone strike against Baghdad early last year.

During his lifetime, General Soleimani won reputation as the region’s most popular and decisive anti-terror commander. He was martyred while paying an official visit to the Iraqi capital.

Riaz Haq said...

Iran first welcomed #Taliban victory but assault on the #PanjshirValley changed #Iran. Iranian media falsely alleged #Pakistan military was assisting Taliban offensive, an allegation had earlier been made in hysterical clown show that is the #Indian media https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1931971#.YUo3sMOIEtw.twitter

by Zarrar Khuro

"Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is"

---------

When Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan met Iranian President Seyed Ibrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Dushanbe, it was perhaps without the bonhomie that would ordinarily accompany such a meeting. But then these are extraordinary times, with the Taliban sweeping to power after the escape of Ashraf Ghani who, from the confines of his ivory tower in Kabul, perhaps imagined that the US would never abandon him and who also made the cardinal sin of believing his own spin.
As the region and the world attempts to reconcile itself with the new reality, Iran seems increasingly discomfited despite initially having welcomed ‘the military defeat and withdrawal of the United States’ from Afghanistan. Soon after the Taliban took Kabul, Iran resumed fuel supplies to Afghanistan in what was seen as an attempt to, if not normalize relations, then to at least not start off on the wrong foot with the new rulers of Kabul. But then once the Taliban assault on the Panjshir Valley began, the messaging from Iran became curious indeed, with Iranian media alleging that the Pakistan military was assisting the Taliban offensive with special forces and drone strikes. This allegation had previously been made in the hysterical clown show that is the Indian media which, true to form, used old footage from air exercises in Wales and Arizona and the occasional video game to illustrate its farcical reports. But even that spectacle was less surreal than seeing Iranian media quoting Fox News (not exactly known for its fair and balanced approach toward Iran) which in turn quoted an anonymous CENTCOM (which is listed as a terrorist organization in Iran) source as the origin of this ‘report.’
Now, one could argue that these are media reports and thus by no means an official state narrative-- but then just a few days back, an Iranian MP repeated the allegation, even going so far as to accuse Pakistan of using Chechen veterans of the Syrian civil war in this alleged assault. Now this is amusing because it’s not so much the pot calling the kettle black, but the pot actually inventing a kettle; if anyone can be accused of using proxy forces as an extension of foreign policy it is Iran, which has used sectarian militias operating under the aegis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to project power and influence across the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. It’s been a rather successful and relatively low-cost strategy, the transnational nature of which was on full display when on September 16, a convoy of Iranian fuel trucks entered Lebanon through Syria and was welcomed by Hezbollah members. A successful strategy begs to be replicated in other theaters and so Iran likely bet on doing the same in an Afghanistan where the Taliban and government forces would remain in a military deadlock for some time to come. In that scenario, not only would Ismail Khan of Herat prove an invaluable asset, but a prolonged conflict may also have provided the opportunity to redeploy the Liwa Fatemiyoun, a militia comprised of Afghan Shias which saw extensive action in Iraq and Syria. Even if that deployment never took place, Iran would still have been able to use the good offices of its main Afghan ally, warlord Ismail Khan of Herat, to project influence in a post-US dispensation.

Riaz Haq said...

Iran first welcomed #Taliban victory but assault on the #PanjshirValley changed #Iran. Iranian media falsely alleged #Pakistan military was assisting Taliban offensive, an allegation had earlier been made in hysterical clown show that is the #Indian media https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1931971#.YUo3sMOIEtw.twitter

by Zarrar Khuro

"Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is"

If anyone can be accused of using proxy forces as an extension of foreign policy it is Iran, which has used sectarian militias operating under the aegis of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to project power and influence across the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon.

------

Instead, Ismail Khan fled to Iran after surrendering to the Taliban and the quick conclusion to the fighting meant that Iran would gain no strategic depth in Afghanistan the way it had in Iraq and beyond. But that alone cannot explain Iran’s ire toward Pakistan, which it likely sees as having gained influence at Tehran’s expense, and so we must cast a broader net and switch our view from geostrategy to geoeconomics and in particular the future trade routes that may crisscross this region.
Iran’s desire to become the primary trade route through which exports from Afghanistan, and eventually transit trade from Central Asia would reach the world has also seen a setback especially in the context of talks regarding operationalizing the transit trade agreement between Uzbekistan and Pakistan, which would see transit trade being shifted from Iranian ports to Pakistani ports. Not only is that bad news for Bandar Abbas, it’s also yet another blow to Iranian hopes to further develop the Chabahar port, a joint project between Tehran and New Delhi.
Chabahar had already been suffering from delays and had also been seeing declining volumes due to the pandemic. The Taliban takeover then, may prove to be the final nail in the coffin of this already-troubled project and the fate of the transit agreement signed by the Ghani government with India and Iran is also now uncertain. None of this is good news for a cash-strapped Iran.
Despite this, the targeting of Pakistan by Iranian media and officials does seem like a strategic miscalculation, given Iran’s preoccupations in the Middle East. Brinkmanship may be a hallmark of Iranian policy, but it only works when you know for sure where the brink actually is.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan’s #Taliban problem is #America’s too. It raises the possibility that the #US could target #TTP commanders found operating in #Afghanistan – much as it killed #AlQaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with a #drone strike in #Kabul in September.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/15/middleeast/taliban-afghan-pakistan-ttp-americas-problem-intl-hnk

When the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan after 20 years in the country, it did so on a promise that the Taliban once back in government would provide no haven for terrorist groups.

The Taliban pledge covered not only al Qaeda – the terror group whose presence in the country led to the US invasion in 2001 – but also the Taliban’s ideological twin next door, the Pakistani Taliban or TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan).

But the recent break down of an already shaky year-long ceasefire in neighboring Pakistan between the TTP and Islamabad raises some troubling questions over whether that promise will hold.

The end of the ceasefire in Pakistan threatens not only escalating violence in that country but potentially an increase in cross-border tensions between the Afghan and Pakistani governments.

And it is already putting links between the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani counterpart under the spotlight.

As recently as spring last year Pakistani Taliban leader Noor Wali Mehsud told CNN that in return for helping to push the US out of Kabul his group would expect support from the Afghan Taliban in its own fight.

Like their erstwhile brothers in arms in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban want to overthrow their country’s government and impose their own strict Islamic code.

In an exclusive interview with CNN this week, Mehsud blamed the ceasefire’s breakdown on Islamabad, saying it “violated the ceasefire and martyred tens of our comrades and arrested tens of them.”

But he was more guarded when asked directly whether the Afghan Taliban was now helping his group as he had once hoped.

His answer: “We are fighting Pakistan’s war from within the territory of Pakistan; using Pakistani soil. We have the ability to fight for many more decades with the weapons and spirit of liberation that exist in the soil of Pakistan.”

Those words should be of concern not only to Islamabad, but Washington too.

The FBI has been tracking the TTP for at least a decade and a half, long before they radicalized and trained Faisal Shazad for his brazen attack setting fire to a vehicle in New York’s Times Square in 2010.

Following the Times Square attack the TTP was designated a terrorist organization and is still considered a threat to US interests.

And while Islamabad is keen to play down the threat from the group – Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah says Pakistan can “fully” control conflict with the TTP and describes conversations with the TTP during the ceasefire as talks “which are held in a state of war” – its control of the situation pivots on the TTP remaining within Pakistan’s borders.

There are growing questions about the TTP’s reach and Islamabad’s perception of the situation does not match Mehsud’s.

In April this year, the Pakistani military struck targets in Afghanistan warning that “terrorists are using Afghan soil with impunity to carry out activities inside Pakistan.”