How Will Pakistan Respond to Terrorist Attack on Quetta Police Academy?

Quetta has suffered yet another mass tragedy with a major terrorist attack on a police academy that has claimed at least 60 young lives of cadets.  What is behind these continuing attacks in Balochistan and elsewhere in Pakistan? Who's doing these and why?

Indian Prime Minister Modi with NSA Ajit Doval

Pressure on Pakistan:

All indications are that these attacks are part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.

Another motivation for such attacks appears to be sabotage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is strongly opposed by the Modi government in New Delhi.

Doval Doctrine:

On the one hand, the Modi government and its allies in Kabul are funding the Teheek--e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Baloch insurgent groups, MQM militants and other groups to terrorize Pakistanis. On the other hand, they are accusing Pakistani government of sponsoring terror in Afghanistan and Kashmir and demanding action against the Kashmiri support groups headed by Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar and the Haqqanis.

It appears that the "Doval Doctrine", named after India's hawkish national security advisor Ajit Doval,  is designed to stretch Pakistan Army so thin that it finally collapses and paves the way for India to dominate Pakistan. The Doval Doctrine is fully supported by the Tajik-dominated government in Kabul.

Pakistan's Response to Pressure: 

Will foreign pressure on Pakistan work? Will Pakistan do the bidding of foreign governments to relieve the pressure being ratcheted up through major terrorist attacks on its soil? To answer this question, let us look at the following two quotes:

1.  "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West."  Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Message to Foreign Governments:

Leaders in Kabul, New Delhi and Washington need to heed the words of Ambassador Anne Patterson and Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy as they pursue their policy of using violence to put pressure on Pakistanis.

Those ratcheting up the pressure on Pakistan need to understand that the Pakistanis have faced much bigger traumas in the past with the break-up of the country by Indian sponsorship of terror followed by the Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971.

The Pakistanis have lost over 60,000 lives to terror in the last decade. Their strength and resilience in the face of extreme adversity is well-tested.

The Pakistanis are betting that the end-game in Afghanistan is near with the continuing  drawdown of the American forces.  The power vacuum left by the Americans will most likely be filled by either the Afghan Taliban or ISIS.

Given the choice between the Afghan Taliban and ISIS, it's almost certain that that the Americans and the Pakistanis would prefer the Afghan Taliban over ISIS to bring some semblance of stability there.

Summary: 

The tragic Quetta Police Academy mass-casualty terror attack is part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.  While Pakistan will intensify its crackdown on terrorists who are attacking Pakistanis, the Pakistani establishment will not yield to foreign pressure. The Pakistanis believe that the inevitable return of the Afghan Taliban (not Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) in Afghanistan after US troops exit will mean the end of the Indian influence there. This will deny the Indian intelligence agency RAW the ability to use proxies like TTP and other groups to launch terror attacks in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan.

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/dy5CqkHhBkI




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?

MQM-RAW Link

India's Pakistan Obsession

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

RK Yadav's Mission RAW

Planted Stories in Indian Media

Doval Doctrine

India's Israel Envy

India's Role in Quetta Bombing; Official "Muslim Terror" Stats

Who is responsible for the Quetta hospital bombing that killed 70 lawyers in Pakistan? Can the Pakistani security establishment get away by blaming RAW for the attacks? Who is ultimately responsible for the security of the Pakistani citizens?

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal

Are the culprits of terror attacks in Pakistan entirely homegrown? Who funded them? Is the Pakistani security establishment serious in fighting the Taliban? Is there foreign involvement? Are Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies involved? Should the Pakistani citizens now talk directly talk to the foreign intelligence agencies and ask the foreign hand for mercy? What has Indian NSA Ajit Doval said about using the Taliban to wage proxy war against Pakistan? Should the Pakistan Army let things happen the way Doval wanted things to happen? What have American officials and analysts been saying about India's role in Pakistan terror? Should Pakistanis use this as an excuse for the ongoing terrorist attacks? What did Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav tell the Pakistani authorities? Does that statement prove the might of the Indian intelligence agencies and the impotence of the Pakistanis? What can and must Pakistan do to end this reign of terror?

Is it true that all terrorists are Muslims, especially in the last two years? What do the official statistics say about Muslims' involvement in terrorist attacks in Europe and America? Are those statistics valid for the last two years? Why do the older official stats differ so much from the news media reporting of acts of terror in the West, in the recent past? Is there disproportionate media coverage of terror acts involving Muslim perpetrators?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)


https://youtu.be/tVIQ9U8jOEs





https://vimeo.com/178837620


India's Role in Quetta Bombing; Official 'Muslim Terror' Stats from Ikolachi on Vimeo.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

India's Sponsorship of Terror in Pakistan

Indian Agent Kulbhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

America Escalating Covert War in Pakistan?

Two of the high-level reports on Pakistan and Afghanistan that have been forwarded to the White House in recent weeks have called for broadening the target area to include a "major insurgent sanctuary" in and around the city of Quetta, according a report in the New York Times. With the potential risk of significant loss of civilian life in a large population center, such strikes on the provincial capital of Baluchistan would represent a major expansion in America's CIA-run covert war well inside Pakistani territory.

As President Obama considers any CIA recommendations to expand the war deep inside Pakistan, he should remember the following three of the five paradoxes from the US military's counter-insurgency manual:

Paradox 3: The hosts doing something tolerably is often better than foreigners doing it well.

Paradox 4: Sometimes the more force is used, the less effective it is.

Paradox 5: Sometimes doing nothing is the best reaction.


As the US seeks Pakistani cooperation in its Afghan war, the continuing American Predator strikes, strongly resented by the government and the people alike, represent the biggest stumbling block in the way of serious and committed US-Pakistan military alliance in Pakistan-Afghan border areas.

A serious but unintended and extremely dangerous consequence of the expanded US air strikes in Pakistan is that the militants are continuing to move further inland from FATA in to Pakistan's settled area such as Swat, Quetta and beyond. They are finding more new recruits for their cause and threatening to destabilize the entire country. A destabilized, nuclear-armed Pakistan will be far more dangerous to the interests of the US, the region and the world than anything we have seen in Afghanistan or Iraq.

So far, the Obama response to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is to order more Predator strikes and thousands of more US troops. This assumes that the problems are mainly the lack of firepower and of troop strength. But it's likely to have the opposite effect. More Predator strikes and more troops mean more fighting which will lead to more American and Afghan civilian casualties. And it will only increase the public opposition to the US presence there, and make the entire region a much more powerful magnet to draw more global Jihadists from around the world. These "holy warriors" love nothing better than to kill the American soldiers and achieve "martyrdom" for themselves.

This latest reported escalation recommendation risks further enhancing support for the militants and insurgents fighting America's presence in Afghanistan. It will also make it less likely for the Pakistani military and the severely weakened Zardari government to turn a blind eye to such open provocation by the CIA in a major Pakistani city, especially if it results in mass civilian casualties.

Mr. Obama has inherited a messy war in Afghanistan. He should listen to the advice of former Bush adviser David Kilcullen offered in his book titled "The Accidental Guerrilla". Kilcullen's advice, as reported by David Ignatius of the Washington Post, consists of three "don'ts." Don't do it again; don't make it worse by overescalation; don't think you can pull out now without damaging U.S. interests. For Obama, that means a measured commitment, somewhere between a major escalation and a minimal force.

Any expansion of the predator strikes into Quetta will put the U.S. on a slippery slope of deeper and prolonged involvement in the region. I hope that President Obama will seriously consider the long term consequences of US actions to prevent a repeat of Indochina in South Asia, rather than give in to the short-term temptation of temporary gains against the Taliban in Afghanistan. No amount of the proposed US aid increase will compensate for such a reckless escalation by the CIA in Quetta.

Related Links:

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20th Anniversary of Russian Deafeat in Afghanistan

Is US Headed Toward Regional War in South Asia?