The mighty Russian military's recent string of losses to the much smaller Ukrainian forces are bringing back memories of the humiliating Russian defeat at the hands of the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Communist Party leaders who presided over the disgraceful Soviet exit were soon ousted from power and replaced by Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev's attempts to reform the Soviet system resulted in its complete collapse. The Soviet Union then ceased to exist by 1991. Could something similar happen to the Russian Federation now?
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| Mikhail Gorbachev (Left) with Vladimir Putin |
Some people in Ukraine and elsewhere in the West do believe that Ukraine will be another Afghanistan for the Russians. For example, Pakistani-Ukrainian billionaire Mohammad Zahoor believes “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia". Talking with Arab News, he said: “This is time, actually, for us not to keep quiet. We have to take sides". Zahoor told Arab News that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have consequences for Russia similar to the fallout from the Soviet-Afghan war from 1979 to 1989, which drastically weakened Russia's military and economy. “Ukraine is going to be the next Afghanistan for Russia,” he said. “I don’t know how many years they are going to be in Ukraine, but once they are out, they will be broken into pieces".
While the possibility of Russia's defeat to Ukraine followed by President Vladimir Putin's ouster can not be completely ruled out, the chances of such an outcome appear remote at the moment. Putin still has a lot of options. He has not yet used the full strength of the Russian military. He can bomb Ukraine into stone age, much like what the Soviets and the Americans did to Afghanistan. The nuclear-armed Russian military remains far more powerful than the Ukrainian military, even one backed by vast amounts of western money, technology and armaments. Putin will almost certainly escalate the war in Ukraine to achieve his objective of annexation of the eastern parts of the country into the Russian Federation. Putin also enjoys the support of as many as 70% of Russians, according to surveys conducted as recently as June, 2022. Besides, the vast majority of Russians have disdain for Gorbachev who was very popular in the West. The Russians would reject anyone who's even remotely similar to Gorbachev.
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2 comments:
Americans were kicked out of Cambodia (70 million bombs dropped), Laos (where the US dropped 260 million bombs), Vietnam (7.5 million tons of bombs), North Korea (635,000 tons, mostly napalm). The Afghanistan exit was not glamorous.
Russia is going through an annexation vote, not the first in histories of such assaults. CA and Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, were all in control of Mexico. Pilgrims attacked, won over, and by voice vote they became American. India annexed Hyderabad Deccan and Junagadh, now Kashmir.
So why compare Putin with Gorba?
Vijainder K Thakur
@vkthakur
How Russia Could Well Be Defeated
Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian Black Sea fleet warships have inflicted a lot of pain on Russia, but the attacks are not going to help Ukraine win the war in any conceivable manner. Fleet warships are not participating in the war in any substantial way, other than some small warships occasionally launching cruise missile attacks against Ukraine.
The Ukrainian attacks are aimed at weakening Russia, which is not Ukraine's war aim in the conflict. Ukraine's war aim is to forcibly seize back its territories that have switched allegiance to Russia. So why is Ukraine repeatedly striking Russian air and naval assets in Crimea instead of focusing on its three months old counteroffensive which, despite huge personnel losses, has made little progress.
Weakening Russia is a US/NATO war aim and make no mistakes; indeed, the US & NATO are waging a low intensity war aimed at weakening Russia, particularly the Russian grip on the Black Sea and its influence in the region. Overly cautious Russia has chosen to turn a Nelson eye towards the US & NATO war being waged against it.
The attacks on Crimea by aerial and maritime drones, cruise missiles and saboteurs are being orchestrated by US/NATO personnel - weapon system specialists and data analysts - using US/NATO ISR, communication and navigation assets. In any given operation, more US/NATO personnel are involved than Ukrainian personnel.
The large number of US/NATO ISR assets committed to the attacks on Russian Naval bases in Crimea is testimony to the fact that the US and NATO are waging an altogether separate war on the side of the Ukraine conflict. A war that doesn't help Ukraine regain its lost territory. A war that is militarily weakening Russia.
If Russia doesn't challenge the US and NATO now it may not be in a position to do so a few months from now. The attacks on Russian Naval and air bases are not just likely to persist, they are likely to intensify and get more deadly. The US is on the verge of supplying ATACMS to Ukraine. It may well have supplied them already. Same could be true of the German Taurus missile.
US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, speaking in the context of the ATACMS supply on ABC, clearly stated, "In terms of their targeting decisions, it's their decision, not ours." He was clearly overstepping a Russian red line.
How many more warships of the Black Sea fleet does Russia want to lose to US/NATO attacks? The fact is, once the Russian Black Sea fleet is debilitated, the next logical step for the US would be to move a carrier group into the Black Sea. Turkey's desire and ability to stop the US, Turkey's NATO ally, from moving a carrier group into the Black Sea, is questionable.
Once a US carrier group moves into the Black Sea, Ukrainians special forces, who currently get cluster bombed into oblivion in their high-speed boats when they make surreptitious attempts to beach in Crimea at night, will be able to arrive unscathed in Crimea in beachwear on sailboats during the day! A Russian defeat would be inevitable. It will be a grind to the last Ukrainian. It will take time. But it will be inevitable.
Russia's only option to prevent defeat would be to fight NATO by shooting down US/NATO ISR assets and if necessary, attacking their low earth surveillance and communication satellites. As I have said before, without the ISR assets and communication network, US forces cannot fight even Mexican drug lords.
So the big question for Russia is - Why not be prepared to fight NATO now when it still has its Black Sea fleet intact? The fact is Russian readiness to fight NATO is likely to bring peace, not war, because the US and NATO, even as they prepare for war, have no stomach for it. Russian readiness to fight US and NATO will bring peace a lot faster than continued Russian diffidence.
https://x.com/vkthakur/status/1701909661694431260?s=20
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