India is in the midst of a huge arms build-up with massive defense spending planned for the next five years. With 10% increase year-over-year, India's defense budget for this year is $26.5b. The question facing the Indian defense establishment is where to get the sophisticated new equipment and training they need. In spite of the tall claims of India's indigenous development and production capacity, more than 80% of what they own today has come from their traditional supplier Russia. It is well known that Russia's industrial base and support infrastructure have significantly atrophied since the demise of the Soviet Union. Russia now derives such a disproportionate amount of revenue from oil and gas that the non-energy industrial sector has diminished in significance for the Russian economy. According to Times of India, India has complained to Russia about the unreliability of some of its weapon systems as well as tardy product support in execution of several projects. Top-level sources say it has been made very clear to Russia that apart from "quality control" of the military equipment being bought from it, India wants assurances on maintenance of delivery schedules of contracted weapon systems, uninterrupted supply of spares and life-term product support. The Indian Air Force is upset with the "distortions" on the canopies of the Sukhoi-30MKI Phase-3 fighter jets. This comes at a time when India is on the verge of signing a $1.6-billion deal with Russia to acquire another 40 Sukhoi-30MKIs, in addition to the 190 such jets already contracted through two big deals in 1996 and 2000. In addition to several recent crashes of Russian-built fighter aircraft, the BBC reports that there have been issues related to the acquisition of the aircraft carrier named Admiral Gorschkov. From a negotiated price of $700m, the Russians subsequently demanded $1.2bn with delivery delayed till 2013.
Around the same time, the Indian navy has refused to accept an upgraded diesel-powered submarine after delays in the installation of a missile system.
India's Admiral Mehta has called for a government review of military ties with Russia, amid growing resentment within the military about the Russian attitude to their needs. These irritants and other disagreements over trade and India's foreign policy have all served to put a strain on once close relations, according to the BBC.
The US and European suppliers present alternatives for the Indians with warming ties between India and the West after the end of the Cold war. However, this would be a dramatic change for the Indian military to integrate their new equipment into the existing units trained and equipped to use Russian-made weapons systems. While it is possible to do so, it would take a long time and a lot of work to pull it off. In the meanwhile, the transition is likely to damage relations with Russia which have already cooled recently. According to BBC reports, when India's foreign and defense ministers visited Moscow last year, President Putin allegedly refused to meet with them. In fact, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, next only to the prime minister in seniority, was not even given an appointment by the Russian prime minister. And when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh travelled to Russia at the end of last year, he curtailed his visit to just 28 hours.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Is the PPP-PML(N) Coalition Up To The Task Ahead?
The drama between the PPP and the PML(N) and within each party that has unfolded during the last 48 hours clearly shows the lack of competence and maturity of their leadership in handling the very basic political disputes in their ranks. In the midst of rising terrorist violence claiming many innocent lives on a daily basis, the petty personal differences and mutual suspicions have clearly trumped any discussion of how to deal with the real challenges Pakistan faces today. The simplistic answer being parroted by the two parties and their mindless followers seems to indicate the belief that everything would be fine as soon as Musharraf steps down and the judiciary under Iftikhar Chaudhry is restored. I believe this answer is misleading. Pakistan's problems are much bigger than any one individual or institution. The resolution to these problems of rising violence, high worldwide inflation of food and fuel prices and continuing political instability will require all Pakistanis to work as a team. What Pakistan needs is a unifying leadership, not a divisive bunch with personal ambitions and vendettas against others.
The very public and crude manner in which a PPP stalwart Makhdoom Amin Fahim has been snubbed by both parties is nothing short of absolutely astounding. Not only does it smack of personal ambitions of a few individuals gone awry but also of the ethnic prejudice. But beyond that, it inspires little confidence in the leadership qualities of Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif and their closest lieutenants.
As the entire Pakistani nation holds its breath waiting for a peaceful power transfer, the coalition can not even agree on who will be the prime minister in the new set up. This clearly does not augur well for democracy in Pakistan.
The very public and crude manner in which a PPP stalwart Makhdoom Amin Fahim has been snubbed by both parties is nothing short of absolutely astounding. Not only does it smack of personal ambitions of a few individuals gone awry but also of the ethnic prejudice. But beyond that, it inspires little confidence in the leadership qualities of Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif and their closest lieutenants.
As the entire Pakistani nation holds its breath waiting for a peaceful power transfer, the coalition can not even agree on who will be the prime minister in the new set up. This clearly does not augur well for democracy in Pakistan.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Can Pakistan End Suicide Bombings?
With yet another incident of twin-bombings involving suicidal attackers taking their toll in Lahore today, there are clearly mounting concerns about this scourge. From six suicide bombings in 2006 in Pakistan, the tally went up to 62 in 2007, more than tenfold increase in just one year. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, at least 1,523- civilians were killed in terror-related violence in 2007 and more than twice that number injured. The average is now more than one per week – the last week saw three in a row. No one is safe from this scourge. Those praying in mosques, or at funerals have been no safer than others at political rallies or while crossing a street.
Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, writing in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper on March 9, 2008, describes in detail how this menacing phenomenon is taking its toll and the factors that are contributing to its alarming increase. In addition to the American drones launching attacks and killing many innocent people in Pakistan, Dr. Hoodbhoy holds Pakistanis culpable for what he describes as "human drones" killing innocent Pakistanis in large numbers. He says: "Why do so many Pakistanis suddenly lose their voice when it comes to condemning suicide bombings? Is it because the bomber kills in the name of Islam? Are people muted in their criticism lest they be regarded as irreligious or even blasphemous?"
I couldn't agree with Dr. Hoodbhoy more. The real question is how do we stop this self-destruction of a nation that has serious consequences for the entire world and force a course reversal? If the great majority of Pakistanis including the apologists for the bombers truly condemn the actions of the few, would it be sufficient? These bombings have spawned a new culture with its roots in the Afghan resistance of the Soviet Union in 1980s backed by US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This culture has developed in two decades in Pakistan's tribal belt and gained strength more recently. There are many culprits, Pakistanis of all stripes are culpable to varying degrees. But so are many others. In my humble view, there are no quick fixes. We (Pakistanis backed by Americans, Saudis, the Europeans etc.) must start by addressing what Dr. Hoodbhoy describes as the "enabling environment of poverty, deprivation, lack of justice, and extreme differences of wealth" making the environment "perfect for demagogues". At the same time, we must continue to act against those who orchestrate these crimes in the name of Islam. If we do one without the other,the chances of success are zero. If we do both, we can entertain the hope of ending it in a decade or two. It's in the best interest of all to begin this effort quickly and earnestly.
Click here for the full text of Dr. Hoodbhoy's piece in Dawn titled "The War of the Drones".
Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, writing in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper on March 9, 2008, describes in detail how this menacing phenomenon is taking its toll and the factors that are contributing to its alarming increase. In addition to the American drones launching attacks and killing many innocent people in Pakistan, Dr. Hoodbhoy holds Pakistanis culpable for what he describes as "human drones" killing innocent Pakistanis in large numbers. He says: "Why do so many Pakistanis suddenly lose their voice when it comes to condemning suicide bombings? Is it because the bomber kills in the name of Islam? Are people muted in their criticism lest they be regarded as irreligious or even blasphemous?"
I couldn't agree with Dr. Hoodbhoy more. The real question is how do we stop this self-destruction of a nation that has serious consequences for the entire world and force a course reversal? If the great majority of Pakistanis including the apologists for the bombers truly condemn the actions of the few, would it be sufficient? These bombings have spawned a new culture with its roots in the Afghan resistance of the Soviet Union in 1980s backed by US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This culture has developed in two decades in Pakistan's tribal belt and gained strength more recently. There are many culprits, Pakistanis of all stripes are culpable to varying degrees. But so are many others. In my humble view, there are no quick fixes. We (Pakistanis backed by Americans, Saudis, the Europeans etc.) must start by addressing what Dr. Hoodbhoy describes as the "enabling environment of poverty, deprivation, lack of justice, and extreme differences of wealth" making the environment "perfect for demagogues". At the same time, we must continue to act against those who orchestrate these crimes in the name of Islam. If we do one without the other,the chances of success are zero. If we do both, we can entertain the hope of ending it in a decade or two. It's in the best interest of all to begin this effort quickly and earnestly.
Click here for the full text of Dr. Hoodbhoy's piece in Dawn titled "The War of the Drones".
Monday, March 10, 2008
Pakistan Stocks Continue to Defy Gravity
As growing concerns about the state of the US economy took their toll on share prices in Asia, the Karachi stock market continued its rally and KSE-100 touched a new peak of 15,085.18 points level during last week ending on March 8, 2008.
"The signs of formation of coalition government of PPP, PML (N) and ANP have revived investors' confidence and they have once again started investment in the share market, which pushed the index to new high level," analysts said, according to The Business Recorder, Pakistan's Financial Daily.
The KSE-30 index went up by 239.90 points, to close at 18,607.19 points level from 18,367.29 points.
Market capitalization jumped to a new peak of Rs 4.661 trillion from Rs 4.618 trillion, an increase of Rs 42.465 billion. Average daily trading volume of ready market stood at 285 million shares, while overall some 1.294 billion shares were traded during the week.
On Friday, the Indian market closed in the deep negative territory with the BSE Sensex closing below the psychological level of 16000 and the NSE Nifty settled below the 4800 mark. The market tumbled since the initial bell tracking the news from the global markets and remained in the negative territory throughout the trading session. Also, the rising of inflation to 5.02% in February 2008 added to the negative sentiments in the market. The inflation grew to nine months high due to rise in prices of fruits, vegetables and oil seeds. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 566.56 points at 15,975.52 and NSE Nifty fell by 149.80 points to close at 4,771.60. We expect that the market may remain volatile during the trading session.
The markets in Tokyo, Taipei and Shanghai did not fare any better. The Nikkei and other indexes in Asia were in negative territory. The stock market in Shanghai fell by 3.59% to a seven month low on continued inflation worries.
Taiwan's benchmark Taiex index fell 2.7%, which was its biggest fall for six weeks.
In spite of the KSE-100 defying gravity seen in the rest of Asia and the world, there is still a big cloud hanging over the market with the expected transfer of power in the next few weeks. Any hint of serious confrontation between the new government and President Musharraf could easily erase all the stock market gains and pull the KSE-100 into deep negative territory.
"The signs of formation of coalition government of PPP, PML (N) and ANP have revived investors' confidence and they have once again started investment in the share market, which pushed the index to new high level," analysts said, according to The Business Recorder, Pakistan's Financial Daily.
The KSE-30 index went up by 239.90 points, to close at 18,607.19 points level from 18,367.29 points.
Market capitalization jumped to a new peak of Rs 4.661 trillion from Rs 4.618 trillion, an increase of Rs 42.465 billion. Average daily trading volume of ready market stood at 285 million shares, while overall some 1.294 billion shares were traded during the week.
On Friday, the Indian market closed in the deep negative territory with the BSE Sensex closing below the psychological level of 16000 and the NSE Nifty settled below the 4800 mark. The market tumbled since the initial bell tracking the news from the global markets and remained in the negative territory throughout the trading session. Also, the rising of inflation to 5.02% in February 2008 added to the negative sentiments in the market. The inflation grew to nine months high due to rise in prices of fruits, vegetables and oil seeds. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 566.56 points at 15,975.52 and NSE Nifty fell by 149.80 points to close at 4,771.60. We expect that the market may remain volatile during the trading session.
The markets in Tokyo, Taipei and Shanghai did not fare any better. The Nikkei and other indexes in Asia were in negative territory. The stock market in Shanghai fell by 3.59% to a seven month low on continued inflation worries.
Taiwan's benchmark Taiex index fell 2.7%, which was its biggest fall for six weeks.
In spite of the KSE-100 defying gravity seen in the rest of Asia and the world, there is still a big cloud hanging over the market with the expected transfer of power in the next few weeks. Any hint of serious confrontation between the new government and President Musharraf could easily erase all the stock market gains and pull the KSE-100 into deep negative territory.
Malaysia's National Front Suffers Setback
Malaysia's opposition made significant gains in Saturday's elections. The alliance of three opposition parties led by former Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim won 82 of 222 seats in the national Parliament, up from only 19 seats. By controlling one-third of Parliament, opposition parties will be able to block government efforts to amend the constitution. They also took control of five out of 13 states, up from one state previously. They included Penang, home to much of Malaysia's industrial base and to billions of dollars in U.S. and other foreign investments. These elections were held amidst the usual allegations of vote rigging by international organizations such as the Human Rights Watch. The results signaled that Malaysia, one of the world's most economically advanced Muslim-majority nations and the U.S.'s 10th-largest trade partner, could become a model of peaceful democratic change in the Islamic world. Although the jury is still out, this perception is further reinforced by the recent Pakistani elections where the ruling coalition was trounced by the opposition.
Under the decades-long rule of Malaysia's National Front, Malaysian economy has been completely transformed from a natural-resource base to a modern industrial base. The former prime minister and a retired National Front leader Mahathir Mohamad founded the regional alliance ASEAN along with former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yu of Singapore and late President Suharto of Indonesia. The three leaders, credited with the rapid economic and industrial development of the region, ruled with an iron hand for a long time. The current Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was abruptly removed as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, jailed and tortured by Mr. Mahathir Mohamad during his term in office.
As Yaroslav Trofimov of the Wall Street Journal reports, the spread of uncensored new media, such as the Internet and cell-phone text messaging, helped opposition parties break the government's stranglehold on information flow, harnessing public anger over mounting inflation, widespread corruption and inept governance. Combined with rising resentment by ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities over long-standing affirmative-action policies designed to benefit the country's Muslim ethnic Malay majority, this anger coalesced into a perfect storm of protest against Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government.
Mr. Abdullah is now facing growing pressure to step down. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who named Mr. Abdullah to replace him in 2003, also demanded the premier's head, accusing him of "destroying" the National Front.
Under the decades-long rule of Malaysia's National Front, Malaysian economy has been completely transformed from a natural-resource base to a modern industrial base. The former prime minister and a retired National Front leader Mahathir Mohamad founded the regional alliance ASEAN along with former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yu of Singapore and late President Suharto of Indonesia. The three leaders, credited with the rapid economic and industrial development of the region, ruled with an iron hand for a long time. The current Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was abruptly removed as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, jailed and tortured by Mr. Mahathir Mohamad during his term in office.
As Yaroslav Trofimov of the Wall Street Journal reports, the spread of uncensored new media, such as the Internet and cell-phone text messaging, helped opposition parties break the government's stranglehold on information flow, harnessing public anger over mounting inflation, widespread corruption and inept governance. Combined with rising resentment by ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities over long-standing affirmative-action policies designed to benefit the country's Muslim ethnic Malay majority, this anger coalesced into a perfect storm of protest against Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government.
Mr. Abdullah is now facing growing pressure to step down. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who named Mr. Abdullah to replace him in 2003, also demanded the premier's head, accusing him of "destroying" the National Front.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
PPP Infighting Becomes Public
As the headlines in Pakistan proclaimed the formation of the PPP-PML(N) coalition at a summit meeting between Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, there were obvious signs of rift emerging within the PPP. Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the PPP leader who faithfully guided the party during Beanzir Bhutto's self-imposed exile, told the news media that he was not invited to join the negotiations with PML(N) nor was he present during the announcement. In fact, he learned of the news through the media reports. While still maintaining his loyalty to the party, he was clearly agitated by this development.
There have also been reports of Sind-Punjab tussle on the choice of the prime minister within the PPP. In the Geo News show ‘Who would be the prime minister’, Makhdoom Amin Fahim said that the prime minister should be from Sindh and he was the candidate for this post. He said that he was a senior member of the party.
Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari had also offered him the PM slot.
On the other hand, Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar insisted that the PM should be from Punjab. He also claimed to be a senior member of the party, as his family's had a long association with the Bhutto family since 1967. He also challenged that Makhdoom Amin Faheem was ever offered to become PM. Other names that have been mentioned are Raja Mahmood Qureshi and Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani.
The fact that Mr. Zardari has chosen to make deals with other parties without Mr. Fahim's participation is the clearest indication yet that Amin Fahim is either out of the running for the position of prime minister or, that he would not be fully empowered even if he gets the nod from Zardari. The real power will, in fact, continue to be in the hands of Mr. Zardari.
This is clearly an inauspicious beginning for the PPP and the new coalition. It calls into question Zardari's intentions and personal ambitions. It raises issues such as how the PPP unity can be maintained in the absence of an adult Bhutto at the head of the party. It also creates doubts about the durability of any coalition arrangements with other parties. This situation is likely to strengthen President Musharraf's position in dealing with the new civilian government.
There have also been reports of Sind-Punjab tussle on the choice of the prime minister within the PPP. In the Geo News show ‘Who would be the prime minister’, Makhdoom Amin Fahim said that the prime minister should be from Sindh and he was the candidate for this post. He said that he was a senior member of the party.
Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari had also offered him the PM slot.
On the other hand, Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar insisted that the PM should be from Punjab. He also claimed to be a senior member of the party, as his family's had a long association with the Bhutto family since 1967. He also challenged that Makhdoom Amin Faheem was ever offered to become PM. Other names that have been mentioned are Raja Mahmood Qureshi and Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani.
The fact that Mr. Zardari has chosen to make deals with other parties without Mr. Fahim's participation is the clearest indication yet that Amin Fahim is either out of the running for the position of prime minister or, that he would not be fully empowered even if he gets the nod from Zardari. The real power will, in fact, continue to be in the hands of Mr. Zardari.
This is clearly an inauspicious beginning for the PPP and the new coalition. It calls into question Zardari's intentions and personal ambitions. It raises issues such as how the PPP unity can be maintained in the absence of an adult Bhutto at the head of the party. It also creates doubts about the durability of any coalition arrangements with other parties. This situation is likely to strengthen President Musharraf's position in dealing with the new civilian government.
Is Hillary Clinton Muslim?
As Obama gets closer to making history by clinching the Democratic nomination for US Presidential Elections in 2008, a number of stories are beginning to proliferate in the US media on the following questions: Is he really Christian as he says he is? Or is he secretly a Muslim? Why is his middle name Husain? Did he attend an Islamic School in Indonesia as a child? Is he really committed to supporting Israel? Would Obama take oath of office on the Bible? Why is the Black Muslim leader Louis Farrakhan endorsing him? Why does Obama want to talk to Iran without preconditions?
This debate has not been lost on the stand-up comedians such as Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of the Daily Show. Of particular interest to the bigots has been Obama's middle name which they emphasize greatly. Here's a take on this as applied to Hillary RODHAM Clinton's middle name to make the point:
This debate has not been lost on the stand-up comedians such as Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert of the Daily Show. Of particular interest to the bigots has been Obama's middle name which they emphasize greatly. Here's a take on this as applied to Hillary RODHAM Clinton's middle name to make the point:
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Are Women In Pakistan Better Off Today?
As the world celebrates International Women's Day today, it is natural to ask if Pakistani women have made substantial real progress in the last 5 years under President Musharraf. The answer to this question depends on who you ask and how you judge women's progress. In terms of the women's political representation in the nation's parliament, there has clearly never been a better time. The discriminatory laws such as the Hudood ordnance have been repealed. There are other indicators such as women's presence in the traditional male professions such as law, medicine, business, the police and the military. We have seen women inducted and grow in numbers in each of these male-dominated areas. Women's ranks have also grown in the nation's mass media and they are much freer than ever to express themselves in the choice of appearance, speech, dress, arts, entertainment etc. There have even been performances of The Vagina Monologues in Pakistan. Localized with Urdu and Punjabi words, The Vagina Monologues was first staged in Islamabad in 2003 for an audience of 160, mostly women, followed by performances for mixed audiences in Karachi and Lahore. Organized with AMAL, an NGO working on gender rights in Pakistan, the actresses added information about local incidents of violence against women and honor killings.
Along with the signs of women's progress in Pakistan, there have also been high-profile incidents of violence against women, such as the rape of Mukhtaran Mai that forced an honest discussion and debate on the status of women in rural Pakistan. Most of the women represented in Pakistani parliament are from the same privileged, feudal class that is largely responsible for discrimination against women in Pakistan. The women in parliament have not been particularly vocal in raising the women's issues in parliament and they have not offered any serious legislation other than the Women's Protection Bill that was offered and passed because of President Musharraf's personal intervention. The word "feudal princess" often used to describe late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto applies well to the majority the women members of parliament in Pakistan. There is a continuing large literacy gap of as much as 45 percent between men and women and the opportunities for rural women's education remain elusive.
In summary, the Musharraf era has seen measurable progress in improving the situation for women. However, a lot more needs to be done. What is really needed is a fundamental change in social attitudes toward women, particularly in rural Pakistan. A massive effort is required to make both men and women aware of the need and the benefits of women's empowerment for a better future of Pakistan. Healthy, educated and empowered women can help bring up better children to build Pakistan as a modern society that cares for its people.
Along with the signs of women's progress in Pakistan, there have also been high-profile incidents of violence against women, such as the rape of Mukhtaran Mai that forced an honest discussion and debate on the status of women in rural Pakistan. Most of the women represented in Pakistani parliament are from the same privileged, feudal class that is largely responsible for discrimination against women in Pakistan. The women in parliament have not been particularly vocal in raising the women's issues in parliament and they have not offered any serious legislation other than the Women's Protection Bill that was offered and passed because of President Musharraf's personal intervention. The word "feudal princess" often used to describe late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto applies well to the majority the women members of parliament in Pakistan. There is a continuing large literacy gap of as much as 45 percent between men and women and the opportunities for rural women's education remain elusive.
In summary, the Musharraf era has seen measurable progress in improving the situation for women. However, a lot more needs to be done. What is really needed is a fundamental change in social attitudes toward women, particularly in rural Pakistan. A massive effort is required to make both men and women aware of the need and the benefits of women's empowerment for a better future of Pakistan. Healthy, educated and empowered women can help bring up better children to build Pakistan as a modern society that cares for its people.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
New Indian Billionaires And Growing Rich-Poor Gap
The booming Bombay stock market in 2007 and the benefits of globalization have seen India's billionaires list swell to 40 on the Forbes Billionaires List. The Indian billionaires combined wealth has more than doubled from $170 billion to $351 billion in 2007. While Bill Gates has slipped to number three spot from number one, the number 4, 5, 6 and 8 spots in the top 10 are now occupied by Lakshmi Mittal, Mukesh Ambani, Anil Ambani and KP Singh from India.
The news of the newly-minted Indian billionaires is bringing sharper focus on the growing rich-poor gap in India. The Times of India reports Communist Party leader Sitaram Yechury claiming that on the one hand, 36 Indian billionaires constituted 25% of India’s GDP while on the other, 70% of Indians had to do with Rs 20 a day. "A farmer commits suicide every 30 minutes. The gap between the two Indias is widening," he said.
The growing wealth gap is also a big concern in other BRIC countries such as China and Russia. Fully a third of the new billionaires come from Russia (35), China (28) and India (19). The Chinese government is trying to tackle the growing rich-poor, urban-rural divide, a major cause of the rise in incidents of social unrest and violence in the world's most populous nation. The estimates of the urban-rural income gap vary by anywhere from 3 times to six times.
It is not unusual to see the rich-poor gap in the early stages of explosive growth in economies where the focus is on wealth creation rather than distribution. However, if this continues for an extended period of time, there is significant potential for widespread social unrest and serious political insatiability that can threaten the very foundations of a nation. From the recent speeches by the political leadership in India and China, it is clear that there is an acknowledgment of the issues and willingness to work on more equitable distribution of the fruits of progress.
Click here for complete list of Forbes Billionaire.
Here's a video clip of Prof Jayati Ghosh of Nehru University talking about growing rich-poor gap in India:
The news of the newly-minted Indian billionaires is bringing sharper focus on the growing rich-poor gap in India. The Times of India reports Communist Party leader Sitaram Yechury claiming that on the one hand, 36 Indian billionaires constituted 25% of India’s GDP while on the other, 70% of Indians had to do with Rs 20 a day. "A farmer commits suicide every 30 minutes. The gap between the two Indias is widening," he said.
The growing wealth gap is also a big concern in other BRIC countries such as China and Russia. Fully a third of the new billionaires come from Russia (35), China (28) and India (19). The Chinese government is trying to tackle the growing rich-poor, urban-rural divide, a major cause of the rise in incidents of social unrest and violence in the world's most populous nation. The estimates of the urban-rural income gap vary by anywhere from 3 times to six times.
It is not unusual to see the rich-poor gap in the early stages of explosive growth in economies where the focus is on wealth creation rather than distribution. However, if this continues for an extended period of time, there is significant potential for widespread social unrest and serious political insatiability that can threaten the very foundations of a nation. From the recent speeches by the political leadership in India and China, it is clear that there is an acknowledgment of the issues and willingness to work on more equitable distribution of the fruits of progress.
Click here for complete list of Forbes Billionaire.
Here's a video clip of Prof Jayati Ghosh of Nehru University talking about growing rich-poor gap in India:
Is Democracy Right For Pakistan?
Pakistan's Constitution:
As Pakistan lurches forward to hopeful and positive change in the wake of the recent elections, there is a lot of talk about what is the right form of viable democracy for Pakistan. Examples of democracy in India, the United Kingdom and the United States come to mind. Given our colonial past and common history with India, many Pakistanis naturally gravitate toward the British and the Indian models as also reflected in Pakistan's 1973 constitution. The assumption is that the 1973 constitution will serve us well as a basis for democracy. Let's examine this assumption and look at a realistic transition to democracy.
British Democracy:
The British democracy has its roots in the Magna Carta issued in 1215. The Magna Carta was the first document which was forced onto an English King by his subjects to limit his powers by law. In practice Magna Carta mostly did not limit the power of the King in the Middle Ages; by the time of the English Civil War however it had become an important symbol for those who wished to show that the King was bound by the law. So the Magna Carta was meant to limit the powers of individuals and create some checks and balances in the governance. The United Kingdom does not have a written constitution. The British democracy has gone through many ups and downs as it evolved over the last 800 years based on the Magna Carta to its modern form with institutions of executive led by the prime minister, judiciary led by the law lords in the upper house and the the legislature consisting of mainly the British house of commons. In spite of the long history of democracy, the British government is known to have acted without the support of its people in matters such as the decision to join the US invasion of Iraq.
The US Democracy:
The US democracy began with the the revolutionary war motivated by the people's desire for participation in decision making of the government. It was inspired by the slogan "No taxation without representation". It was a revolt against the British monarchy. In its early days after independence, one of the US founding fathers Alexander Hamilton said, " The masses are asses". US democracy restricted voting rights to "white men owning property" for a long time. Blacks were held as slaves and women denied suffrage for more than a century. The biggest single addition to the US constitution was the addition of the "Bill of Rights", the first ten amendments to the US constitution which, like Magna Carta, focused on limiting the powers of the government. In 1867,fourteenth amendment passed Congress, defining citizens as "male". The women finally got their voting rights by the passage of "Susan B. Anthony amendment" in 1920, after a long struggle. It took a hundred years after the bill of rights and a bloody civil war for the black slaves to be freed by the emancipation proclamation. And another hundred years after that to repeal segregation and pass voting rights act. So the US democracy has taken a long time, blood and sweat to get to where it is today. And yet it remains imperfect: Today, the US elections, legislation and policies are heavily influenced by the corporate money and powerful lobbyists. Neocons supported by the military-industrial complex have led us into a disastrous war that Nobel Laureate Joe Stiglitz describes as a "Three trillion dollar war". George W. Bush has been hard at work to shred the bill of rights and packing the courts with judges that support giving extra-ordinary powers to the executive branch, particularly the president.
Indian Democracy:
The Indian democracy is modeled after the British democracy but with a written constitution and the president substituting the queen as the head of state. Indians have had more than a dozen largely free and fair general elections in the past 60 years and smooth, peaceful power transfers. There are strong institutions such as an elected parliament, powerful judiciary and a functioning executive.
In spite of living up to the definition of a functioning democracy, the Indian democracy has failed to serve the vast majority of its people who remain mired in extreme poverty, lack of education and basic health care. The license raj and official corruption are rampant and the people of India continue to suffer from the excesses of the powerful government bureaucracy. The few high-profile high-tech companies and several Indian billionaires cited as the successes of Indian resurgence fail to hide the fact that there are very few jobs being created relative to the needs, and high rates of poverty and low wages make life difficult for an average Indian.
Pakistani Democracy:
Pakistan has had checkered history of attempts to establish democracy. The failure of the politicians and the interventionist military have made things difficult. Compared to India, the Pakistani economy and the average standard of living have not been bad. As William Dalrymple of the Guardian wrote in August 2007, "...and first-time visitors to Pakistan are almost always surprised by the country's visible prosperity. There is far less poverty on show in Pakistan than in India, fewer beggars, and much less desperation. In many ways the infrastructure of Pakistan is much more advanced: there are better roads and airports, and more reliable electricity. Middle-class Pakistani houses are often bigger and better appointed than their equivalents in India." So while democracy in Pakistan has been missing in action, the reality on the ground is that the people in Pakistan are slightly better off than the the people in India. While free, fair and peaceful elections by Musharraf in Pakistan are very welcome, I am a little leery of accepting this as a fundamental change in Pakistan. This vote is more a protest vote based on basic bread, security and electricity crises they were subjected to in the last few months as the polls showed Musharraf going from 60% favorable rating down to 15% within about a year. People have responded by recycling the old, failed, and thoroughly corrupt feudal politicians and given them a third chance hoping things will improve. If they fail in solving the basic problems of food and fuel and security (a tough challenge by any measure), I wouldn't be surprised to see the same voters yearning for and welcoming another coup with a new general as a strongman. Let's all hope I'm wrong but we have seen this film replayed several times in Pakistan's 60 year history. Let's hope the PPP and the PML(N)leaders are returning to power as a duly chastised and reformed bunch.
The Future of Democracy in Pakistan:
In the long run, I do remain hopeful that Pakistanis will find a way to a form of democracy that best suits them. As the experience in the US and the UK shows, it will probably evolve over time if the democratic process, however flawed it may be, is allowed to continue to play out. Let's hope Pakistan achieves a better system of democracy in a lot less than 200 years, a democracy that is responsive to the needs of its people and serves them well.
As Pakistan lurches forward to hopeful and positive change in the wake of the recent elections, there is a lot of talk about what is the right form of viable democracy for Pakistan. Examples of democracy in India, the United Kingdom and the United States come to mind. Given our colonial past and common history with India, many Pakistanis naturally gravitate toward the British and the Indian models as also reflected in Pakistan's 1973 constitution. The assumption is that the 1973 constitution will serve us well as a basis for democracy. Let's examine this assumption and look at a realistic transition to democracy.
British Democracy:
The British democracy has its roots in the Magna Carta issued in 1215. The Magna Carta was the first document which was forced onto an English King by his subjects to limit his powers by law. In practice Magna Carta mostly did not limit the power of the King in the Middle Ages; by the time of the English Civil War however it had become an important symbol for those who wished to show that the King was bound by the law. So the Magna Carta was meant to limit the powers of individuals and create some checks and balances in the governance. The United Kingdom does not have a written constitution. The British democracy has gone through many ups and downs as it evolved over the last 800 years based on the Magna Carta to its modern form with institutions of executive led by the prime minister, judiciary led by the law lords in the upper house and the the legislature consisting of mainly the British house of commons. In spite of the long history of democracy, the British government is known to have acted without the support of its people in matters such as the decision to join the US invasion of Iraq.
The US Democracy:
The US democracy began with the the revolutionary war motivated by the people's desire for participation in decision making of the government. It was inspired by the slogan "No taxation without representation". It was a revolt against the British monarchy. In its early days after independence, one of the US founding fathers Alexander Hamilton said, " The masses are asses". US democracy restricted voting rights to "white men owning property" for a long time. Blacks were held as slaves and women denied suffrage for more than a century. The biggest single addition to the US constitution was the addition of the "Bill of Rights", the first ten amendments to the US constitution which, like Magna Carta, focused on limiting the powers of the government. In 1867,fourteenth amendment passed Congress, defining citizens as "male". The women finally got their voting rights by the passage of "Susan B. Anthony amendment" in 1920, after a long struggle. It took a hundred years after the bill of rights and a bloody civil war for the black slaves to be freed by the emancipation proclamation. And another hundred years after that to repeal segregation and pass voting rights act. So the US democracy has taken a long time, blood and sweat to get to where it is today. And yet it remains imperfect: Today, the US elections, legislation and policies are heavily influenced by the corporate money and powerful lobbyists. Neocons supported by the military-industrial complex have led us into a disastrous war that Nobel Laureate Joe Stiglitz describes as a "Three trillion dollar war". George W. Bush has been hard at work to shred the bill of rights and packing the courts with judges that support giving extra-ordinary powers to the executive branch, particularly the president.
Indian Democracy:
The Indian democracy is modeled after the British democracy but with a written constitution and the president substituting the queen as the head of state. Indians have had more than a dozen largely free and fair general elections in the past 60 years and smooth, peaceful power transfers. There are strong institutions such as an elected parliament, powerful judiciary and a functioning executive.
In spite of living up to the definition of a functioning democracy, the Indian democracy has failed to serve the vast majority of its people who remain mired in extreme poverty, lack of education and basic health care. The license raj and official corruption are rampant and the people of India continue to suffer from the excesses of the powerful government bureaucracy. The few high-profile high-tech companies and several Indian billionaires cited as the successes of Indian resurgence fail to hide the fact that there are very few jobs being created relative to the needs, and high rates of poverty and low wages make life difficult for an average Indian.
Pakistani Democracy:
Pakistan has had checkered history of attempts to establish democracy. The failure of the politicians and the interventionist military have made things difficult. Compared to India, the Pakistani economy and the average standard of living have not been bad. As William Dalrymple of the Guardian wrote in August 2007, "...and first-time visitors to Pakistan are almost always surprised by the country's visible prosperity. There is far less poverty on show in Pakistan than in India, fewer beggars, and much less desperation. In many ways the infrastructure of Pakistan is much more advanced: there are better roads and airports, and more reliable electricity. Middle-class Pakistani houses are often bigger and better appointed than their equivalents in India." So while democracy in Pakistan has been missing in action, the reality on the ground is that the people in Pakistan are slightly better off than the the people in India. While free, fair and peaceful elections by Musharraf in Pakistan are very welcome, I am a little leery of accepting this as a fundamental change in Pakistan. This vote is more a protest vote based on basic bread, security and electricity crises they were subjected to in the last few months as the polls showed Musharraf going from 60% favorable rating down to 15% within about a year. People have responded by recycling the old, failed, and thoroughly corrupt feudal politicians and given them a third chance hoping things will improve. If they fail in solving the basic problems of food and fuel and security (a tough challenge by any measure), I wouldn't be surprised to see the same voters yearning for and welcoming another coup with a new general as a strongman. Let's all hope I'm wrong but we have seen this film replayed several times in Pakistan's 60 year history. Let's hope the PPP and the PML(N)leaders are returning to power as a duly chastised and reformed bunch.
The Future of Democracy in Pakistan:
In the long run, I do remain hopeful that Pakistanis will find a way to a form of democracy that best suits them. As the experience in the US and the UK shows, it will probably evolve over time if the democratic process, however flawed it may be, is allowed to continue to play out. Let's hope Pakistan achieves a better system of democracy in a lot less than 200 years, a democracy that is responsive to the needs of its people and serves them well.
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