Tide Turning Against TTP Militants in Pakistan

Even as US-Pakistan relations are sinking to new lows, there are tentative signs that Pakistan's fight against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is beginning to succeed. Here are some of the facts that reinforce this assessment:

1. There have been no major terrorist attacks in Pakistan since the the Mehran Naval Base siege in Karachi in May, 2011.

2. Some 1,022 civilians have died in bomb attacks in 2011 so far, according to a report in Christian Science Monitor. Barring a late-year surge, this represents the lowest figure in four years, according to monitoring conducted by the New Delhi-based South Asia Terrorism Portal. This is significantly lower than 1,547 in 2010, and 1,688 in 2009.

3. The TTP has been battered by Pakistani military operations and U.S. drone strikes. It is splintered into more than 100 smaller factions, significantly weakened and running short of cash, according to security officials, analysts and tribesmen from the insurgent who spoke to the reporters of the Associated Press (AP).



In addition to the divide and conquer policy of the Pakistan Army against the Taliban in FATA, at least part of the double digit drop in terror casualties for two years in a row is attributed to improvements in policing, including removal of soft targets, said Rifaat Hussain, a security analyst at the Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad who spoke with The Christian Science Monitor: "They [now] have genuine difficulty carrying out spectacular attacks."

The anti-terror police are now equipped with heavy weaponry including mortars, grenade launchers. Some 2,000 policemen are now deployed at more than 42 checkpoints on the outskirts of Peshawar, says Mr. Toru, the former inspector general, and arming citizens to create a community police force that can act as authorities' eyes and ears.

The police are using the help of experts like Fulbright scholar and computer expert Zeeshan Usmani who has developed software models and simulation techniques to analyze and investigate terrorist bombings. Emergency medical response is also improving with knowledge and experience gained by ambulance service operators like Edhi Foundation and various hospital emergency rooms in major cities. An example is a Yale trained Emergency Medicine specialist Dr. Junaid Razzak who has set up an Emergency Medicine program in Karachi to train physicians in handling accident and terror victim injuries.

Though Pakistanis have been paying a very heavy price in terms of mass casualties, it now appears that they have learned to deal with the menace more effectively, and have finally begun to turn the tide against the TTP insurgency in Pakistan. It won't be easy to end it, but there is light now visible at the end of of the long dark tunnel.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Fulbright Scholar Helping Police Fight Terror

Emergency Medicine in Pakistan

Daily Carnage in Pakistan

Data Darbar Attack

Islamabad Marriott Bombing

US Military Undermining Interests in "AfPak"

Who Is Behind Data Darbar Bombing in Pakistan?

The recent Data Darbar bombing in Lahore and other similar tragic attacks have most likely been carried out by religious militants of various stripes operating openly in Pakistan. But the actual frontline attackers appear to be mere proxies acting on behalf of other, more powerful forces with much bigger axes to grind. The real identities and the agendas of these powerful forces financing and patronizing such heinous attacks are not well understood. The list of such patrons appears to be long and diverse, extending from self-serving Pakistani politicians to elements within Pakistani and/or foreign intelligence agencies. Each of them have their own agenda to exploit the internal divisions and the availability of remote-controlled human drones willing to commit such acts for their own reasons and motivations.

I personally believe that India is at or near the top of the list of suspects in this unfolding tragedy. Here is why I have a strong suspicion that India is fishing in Pakistan's troubled waters:

In the wake of Mumbai attacks, there has been open public discussion in India about carrying out covert actions by Indian agents to destabilize and balkanize Pakistan. Several well-known security think tanks and influential analysts in India appear to have helped forge a consensus to carry out covert warfare in Pakistan by taking advantage of its current instability and multiple crises.

There are strong indications that the Indian security and intelligence establishment has finally launched the covert war in Pakistan that they have been planning for about a year. The Indian officials have been seething since last year because of their inability to "punish" Pakistan following the Mumbai terrorist attacks that they blamed on Pakistan. They shelved the idea of lightning air strikes strategy dubbed "Cold Start" against Pakistan for fear of sparking a major war. But they have continued to talk about covert actions by Indian agents to destabilize and balkanize Pakistan. Former RAW chief B. Raman has argued that India appoint a covert ops specialist as the new head of RAW. He said last December that “at this critical time in the nation’s history, RAW has no covert action specialists at the top of its pyramid. Get a suitable officer from the IB or the Army. If necessary, make him the head of the organization.”

Vikram Sood, another former top spy in India, has elaborated on Ind ia's covert warfare options to target Pakistan in the following words: "Covert action can be of various kinds. One is the paramilitary option, which is what the Pakistanis have been using against us. It is meant to hurt, destabilize or retaliate. The second is the psychological war option, which is a very potent and unseen force. It is an all weather option and constitutes essentially changing perceptions of friends and foes alike. The media is a favorite instrument, provided it is not left to the bureaucrats because then we will end up with some clumsy and implausible propaganda effort. More than the electronic and print media, it is now the internet and YouTube that can be the next-generation weapons of psychological war. Terrorists use these liberally and so should those required to counter terrorism."

S.M. Mushrif, former Police Chief of Maharashtra and the author of "Who Killed Karkare?", believes that the Indian Intelligence Bureau (IB) is up to its neck in conspiring with the extreme Hindutva groups against Indian Muslims and creating trouble between India and Pakistan, and now it is ominous to see one of the former IB leaders K.C. Verma heading RAW as of last year.

The power establishment that really runs the affairs of India (Mushrif says it is not Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi) does not want to expose the rabidly anti-Muslim Hindutva terrorists.

Verma was appointed last year as the new head of RAW, regarded as one of the top intelligence agencies along with Mossad, ISI, SVR, MI6, and the CIA. This choice appears to have been made at the suggestion of intelligence hawks like B. Raman to appoint an outsider, in spite of significant resistance from within the agency. Mr. Verma has been tasked with rapidly building strong covert ops capabilities within RAW. It is not a coincidence that the terrorist attacks in Pakistan have dramatically increased since Verma took the reins of RAW.

I am basing my opinion on the track record (RAW's extensive role in East Pakistan and Balochistan) and the strong desire (as expressed through multiple Op Eds and analyses carried by Indian media) of the Indian security establishment. It can also be seen in India's so-called "think tanks" and "analysts" which are the product of a revolving door in Delhi, a cheap copy from Washington similar to the Hindi-ized Bollywood knockoffs of Hollywood blockbusters.

Indian security establishment has demonstrated that it has the strong motives, oft-expressed intent, and the means to hurt Pakistan. They have established a powerful presence in Afghanistan along the border with Pakistan and deployed significant resources to carry out a very violent covert war inside Pakistan, and they appear to have now found the opportunity among the willing allies in the Pakistani Taliban faction in Mehsud tribe, and their terrorist allies in Punjab.

Given the strong probability of Indian involvement in the current crisis, the Pakistani security and intelligence establishment can not rely on counterinsurgency operations alone to stop the civilian carnage on Pakistani streets. The counterinsurgency operations must be supplemented with serious efforts to cut off support and funding for the TTP and their allies in Punjab, and disrupt the Indian intelligence network operating out of Afghanistan. It will require superior intelligence and significant counter-intelligence operations, as well as an effective diplomatic offensive to put pressure on India to stop its covert war being waged on Pakistani soil.

Here are video clips of Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval talking about his 7 years undercover for RAW in Pakistan:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2c33oq_i-lived-in-pakistan-for-7-years-as-spy-ajit-doval-ex-intelligence-officer-now-national-security-advi_news

 
I lived in Pakistan for 7 Years as Spy - Ajit... by zemtv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diQu_wPeIeI




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Taliban or RAW-liban?

India's Covert War in Pakistan

Who Killed Karkare?

CFR's View of the Taliban

World's Top Intelligence Agencies

Twin Bombings in Kabul, Peshawar

India's Israel Envy

India-Israel-US Axis
India's Covert War in Pakistan

India and Balochistan

Obama's New Regional Strategy

Webchat On Obama's New Regional Strategy

Obama's Afghan Exit Strategy

Pakistan: On the Edge of the Precipice
Obama's Interview with CBS 60 Minutes
Can India "Do a Lebanon in Pakistan?

20th Anniversary of Soviet Defeat in Afghanistan

Taming the ISI: Implications for Pakistan’s Stability and the War on Terrorism

Growing Insurgency in Swat

Afghan War and Collapse of the Soviet Union

US, NATO Fighting to Stalemate in Afghanistan?

FATA Faceoff Fears

FATA Raid Charades

Taliban Killing Spree Claims More Innocent Pakistanis

As innocent Pakistani civilians are hit yet again, this time in Wah, by the mindless and ruthless Taliban, Pakistan's clueless leadership continues its now familiar infighting. While I fully expect them to escape-goat Musharraf and the military once again for this latest outrage involving the massacre of over 70 people, the fact remains that these inept politicians will now have a much harder time justifying blaming someone else. They are now fully in charge and they must accept responsibility for the security and well being of all Pakistani citizens. To paraphrase former US president Harry S. Truman, "the buck stops at Zardari's desk".


While the world must hold Messrs Zardari and Sharif responsible, I believe it is time for all Pakistanis to stop being ambivalent about the Taliban and join the fight against them. The Taliban perpetrating these atrocities in the name of Islam are criminals and thugs. They are no friends of Islam, Muslims or Pakistan and they must be stopped, not for America’s sake, but for the sake of Pakistan. The anti-American attitudes in Pakistan must not be allowed in get in the way of fighting the terrorists who target innocent Pakistani civilians to achieve their nefarious political aims. Please read my post about the Taliban's atrocities to get the full picture of Taliban’s ambitions and the ineptitude of our current leadership.

To those who defend the Taliban or the Lal Masjid terrorists or sympathize with their radical ideology, here’s what I’d like to say:

Let’s not be blind to the wave of deadly suicide bombings in Pakistan and the rest of the world unleashed by your jihadist friends who have killed large numbers of innocent, nameless, faceless people, mainly Muslims, and innocent civilians of other faiths.

Let us not be blind to the threats issued by your Lal Masjid friends to Najam Sethi recently and many more media men and women in the past.

Let us not be blind to the broadcast threats of your radical Lal Masjid friends who threatened to throw acid in the un-veiled faces of Muslim women in Islamabad during their reign of terror.

Let us not be blind to the desecration of mosques in Pakistan by your friends who turned them into arms and ammunition depots and launch pads for vicious attacks against fellow Muslims who disagreed with their extreme interpretation of Sharia.

Let us not be blind to those who are trying to impose their violent version of Shariah by the force of arms.

Let us not be blind to the atrocities Taliban and Al-Qaeda and their sympathizers have committed against the poor Aghans during their short rule and later, particularly against the weak including women and girls whose schools have been shut down or burned down. or the barber shops which have been shut or burned down for shaving men’s facial hair.

Let us not be blind to the fact that any one, including Musharaf ( and I admit he is no angel) , who challenged your extremist friends engaged in violence against fellow Muslims, has become the object of hate by you.

Let us not be blind to the to the fact that your radical “Islamic” friends have done more to damage the name and perception of Islam and Muslims than any one else in the history of the world.

Acknowledgment: Taliban Cartoon Sourced from The Economist

Insights into a Suicide Bombing in Pakistan

While Pakistani authorities have had little success in catching perpetrators in most of the bombings, there have been several arrests in a November suicide attack on a Pakistan Air Force bus near an air base in Sargodha, 120 miles west of Lahore.

According to Associated Press, the probe by police and intelligence agencies into the attack provides insight into how the NWFP-based militant groups function and shows they are attracting recruits in other regions and ethnic groups.

Interrogation of a key suspect, a 19-year-old former madrassah student, Omer Farooq, who is accused of helping prepare the motorcycle-borne bomb used in the attack that killed at least eight people, revealed how he shuttled between his home village near Sargodha and South Waziristan during the planning.

A police report on his questioning obtained by the AP says Mr. Farooq learned as a youth how to handle guns and explosives at training camps in Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim region split between Pakistan and India. Islamic separatists have pursued a bloody insurgency in Indian held portion for years.

According to the report, Mr. Farooq said he took orders for the November attack from another Sargodha-based militant, Mohammed Tayyab, who provided the money to buy potash, an explosive material often used in Pakistan for making firecrackers.

Mr. Farooq said he and another militant recruit he refers to only as Bilal bought the potash at a market in Lahore. They transported it by public bus to Mr. Farooq's home, where he packed it into milk containers attached to a motorbike, with the help of the bomber, Mohammed Abid, whom he said came from Waziristan to stage the attack.

Mr. Farooq, who has not faced trial and does not yet have a lawyer, told of Mr. Tayyab warning them that the plan to attack a military vehicle was "an order of the high command," the report says.

"He added this is jihad and this is what we must do to secure the blessing of God. He threatened us, whoever tries to ditch the operation, his head will be cut off," the report quotes Mr. Farooq as saying.

Aftab Khan Sherpao, who was the top civilian security official in the outgoing national government, said that despite dozens of arrests of major terrorists in the six years since Pakistan abandoned its support of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the suicide bombing network is spreading.

"The fact is that they are moving from tribal areas to the cities. They have carried out attacks in Rawalpindi, Sargodha and Lahore," Mr. Sherpao told the AP. "They are present in all of our major cities."

Authorities have blamed Taliban militant leaders like Baitullah Mehsud for the wave of attacks, including the Dec. 27 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Mehsud operates from the lawless South Waziristan region, where al Qaeda leaders are also believed to hide.

Recruits for suicide bombings, which became a favored militant tactic in Afghanistan two years ago before spreading to Pakistan, often go for training in Waziristan before staging attacks, officials say.

But reaching into Pakistan's main province of Punjab, the country's business and farm hub where people have different ethnicity and language to the Pashtun tribesmen in the northwest, requires local help.

"You need to have the support of local facilitators to carry out such attacks, and no suicide bomber can operate without such support," Mr. Sherpao said.

Source: Associated Press

Can Pakistan End Suicide Bombings?

With yet another incident of twin-bombings involving suicidal attackers taking their toll in Lahore today, there are clearly mounting concerns about this scourge. From six suicide bombings in 2006 in Pakistan, the tally went up to 62 in 2007, more than tenfold increase in just one year. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, at least 1,523- civilians were killed in terror-related violence in 2007 and more than twice that number injured. The average is now more than one per week – the last week saw three in a row. No one is safe from this scourge. Those praying in mosques, or at funerals have been no safer than others at political rallies or while crossing a street.

Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, writing in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper on March 9, 2008, describes in detail how this menacing phenomenon is taking its toll and the factors that are contributing to its alarming increase. In addition to the American drones launching attacks and killing many innocent people in Pakistan, Dr. Hoodbhoy holds Pakistanis culpable for what he describes as "human drones" killing innocent Pakistanis in large numbers. He says: "Why do so many Pakistanis suddenly lose their voice when it comes to condemning suicide bombings? Is it because the bomber kills in the name of Islam? Are people muted in their criticism lest they be regarded as irreligious or even blasphemous?"

I couldn't agree with Dr. Hoodbhoy more. The real question is how do we stop this self-destruction of a nation that has serious consequences for the entire world and force a course reversal? If the great majority of Pakistanis including the apologists for the bombers truly condemn the actions of the few, would it be sufficient? These bombings have spawned a new culture with its roots in the Afghan resistance of the Soviet Union in 1980s backed by US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This culture has developed in two decades in Pakistan's tribal belt and gained strength more recently. There are many culprits, Pakistanis of all stripes are culpable to varying degrees. But so are many others. In my humble view, there are no quick fixes. We (Pakistanis backed by Americans, Saudis, the Europeans etc.) must start by addressing what Dr. Hoodbhoy describes as the "enabling environment of poverty, deprivation, lack of justice, and extreme differences of wealth" making the environment "perfect for demagogues". At the same time, we must continue to act against those who orchestrate these crimes in the name of Islam. If we do one without the other,the chances of success are zero. If we do both, we can entertain the hope of ending it in a decade or two. It's in the best interest of all to begin this effort quickly and earnestly.

Click here for the full text of Dr. Hoodbhoy's piece in Dawn titled "The War of the Drones".