Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

“You tend to hear the worst 5% of the Pakistan story 95% of the time.”

The above is a quote attributed to Pakistani Entrepreneur Monis Rahman in Aug 8, 2011 Forbes Magazine story titled “Want to Start a Company in the World's Sixth-Most Populous Country? Time to Move to Pakistan”.

On Pakistan's 64th birthday today, there is a lot of coverage by the traditional media focused on "the worst 5% of the Pakistan story". To help my readers piece together the full story of Pakistan this August 14, 2011, I am writing today to present some of the key parts of the rest of the 95% of the Pakistan story that gets little or no coverage.

Let's start with some of the key indicators of progress Pakistan has made since independence in 1947.

1. Health & Wealth:

The health and wealth of a nation depend on availability of good nutrition and access to health care and education, which in turn rely on economic growth to support needed public and private social spending.

The most basic indicators of progress, such as the life expectancy and per capita incomes of many nations, have been compiled and brought to life in animations developed by Professor Hans Rosling and posted on gapminder.org.



The Gapminder animations show that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to  67 years in 2009, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to $2603 in 2009.

2. Literacy:

Literacy is also a very important indicator of progress. Though the literacy in Pakistan has increased from about 10% in 1947 to about 60% today, it remains dismally low relative to many other nations.

However, a closer examination of literacy data by age groups shows that the literacy rates are rising by every generation:

Over 55 years  30% literate
45-55           40%
35-45           50%
25-35           60%
15-25           70% (Male 80%, Female 60%, UNICEF)

Rural and Female illiteracy are the biggest challenges.

3. Poverty, Hunger and Inequality:

The World Bank ranks Pakistan among lower-middle-income nations with per capita income exceeding $1000 a year.

Pakistan is still a country with significant population of poor people. However, its recent levels of poverty are among the lowest in South Asia.

The 2011 World Bank data shows that Pakistan's poverty rate of 17.2%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points lower than India's 27.5%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with equal or slightly lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.

Based on hunger data collected from 2003 to 2008, The International Food Policy Research (IFPRI) has reported that Pakistan's hunger index score improved over the last three consecutive years reported since 2008 from 21.7 (2008) to 21.0 (2009) to 19.1 (2010) and its ranking rose from 61 to 58 to 52. During the same period, India's index score worsened from 23.7 to 23.9 to 24.1 and its ranking moved from 66 to 65 to 67 on a list of 84 nations.

 Pakistan is also more egalitarian than its neighbors. The CIA World Factbook reports Pakistan’s Gini Index has decreased from 41 in 1998-99 to 30.6 in 2007-8, lower than India's 36.8 and Bangladesh's 33.2.

4. Pakistan's Economy:

Pakistan state was broke in 1947 because India refused to give Pakistan its share of Sterling reserves. The situation was so bad that Pakistani govt couldn’t pay employees. In this first existential crisis, the Habibs bailed out Pakistani state by lending Rs. 80 million, more than half of Rs. 150 million budget.

Today, Pakistan's economy is the 27th largest in the world. As Part of "the Next 11" group of nations, it is one of the top 15 emerging economies (BRICs+Next11) picked by Goldman Sachs. Goldman forecasts Pakistan to be among the top 20 biggest economies in the world by 2025.

Since 2008, Pakistan's economy has been suffering from a serious stagflation, a very bad combination of slow growth and high inflation. But the history tells us that this current situation is not normal for Pakistan. After all, it's Pakistan's robust economic growth that has enabled significant progress based on the health and wealth indicators outlined earlier.

Beginning in 1947, Pakistani economy grew at a fairly impressive rate of 6 percent per year through the first four decades of the nation's existence. In spite of rapid population growth during this period, per capita incomes doubled, inflation remained low and poverty declined from 46% down to 18% by late 1980s, according to eminent Pakistani economist Dr. Ishrat Husain. This healthy economic performance was maintained through several wars and successive civilian and military governments in 1950s, 60s, 70s and 80s until the decade of 1990s, now appropriately remembered as the lost decade.

In the period from 2000-2007, here's what the IMF agreed to in 2008 as part of the nation's bailout:

Pakistan became one of the four fastest growing economies in the Asian region during 2000-07 with its growth averaging 7.0 per cent per year for most of this period. As a result of strong economic growth, Pakistan succeeded in reducing poverty by one-half, creating almost 13 million jobs, halving the country's debt burden, raising foreign exchange reserves to a comfortable position and propping the country's exchange rate, restoring investors' confidence and most importantly, taking Pakistan out of the IMF Program.

5. Science and Technology:

Here are some of the facts about Pakistan's progress in science and technology that never make the headlines in the mainstream media anywhere, including Pakistan:

-Pakistan has been ScienceWatch’s Rising Star for scientific papers published in various international journals.

-Pakistan is among a handful of nations with dozens of scientists working on CERN’s high-profile SuperCollider Project. Several SuperCollider components were built in Pakistan.

-Jinnah Antarctic Station puts Pakistan among a dozen nations doing research in Antarctica.

-Pakistan’s IT Industry is worth $2.8 billion and growing



-Pakistan leads the world in biometric IT services with the world’s biggest biometric database.

-Top-selling Blackberry application was developed by a Pakistani company Pepper.pk

6. Arts, Literature & Culture:

There has been an explosion of the uniquely Pakistani arts and literature:

-Sachal Orchestra, a Lahore Jazz Group, is topping western music charts

-Regular book fairs, music concerts, fashion shows & theater group performances

-UK’s Granta Magazine Special Issue Highlights Successful Pakistani Authors’ Books Published in Europe and America. Examples: Mohsin Hamid (The Reluctant Fundamentalist), Daniyal Mueenuddin (In Other Rooms, Other Wonders), Kamila Shamsie (Burnt Shadows), Mohammad Hanif (A Case of Exploding Mangoes) and Nadeem Aslam (The Wasted Vigil) who have been making waves in literary circles and winning prizes in London and New York.

7. Heavy Manufacturing:

Pakistan has a significant heavy industry today. For example:

-Autos, Motorcycles, Tractors, Buses, Trucks (Auto Sales Up 61% in July, 2011)

-Steel

-Nuclear Reactors (Khushab)

-Aircrafts

-Ships

-Unmanned Drones (UAVs)

-Army Tanks

-Ballistic and Cruise Missiles

8. Natural Resources:

Pakistan is rich in energy and mineral resources.

-US Dept of Energy estimates 51 trillion cubic feet of shale gas mostly in Sindh. And there's good potential for shale oil in the country.

-Vast coal reserves at Thar for cheap electricity

-Huge deposits of copper, gold, iron and rare earths at Reko Diq, Dilband and Saindak in Balochistan

-High sustained wind speeds of 13 to 16 mph along the Arabian Sea coastline

-Lots of sunshine everywhere all year round

-Significant hyrdo energy potential

9. Strong Society:

The Habibs bailed out Pakistani state in 1947.

Now, let's see how Edhi doing it in 2011. Here's quote from Anatol Leiven's "Pakistan: A Hard Country":

"There is no sight in Pakistan more moving than to visit some dusty, impoverished small town in arid wasteland, apparently abandoned by God and all sensible men and certainly abandoned by the Pakistani state and its own elected representatives- to see the flag of the Edhi Foundation flying over a concrete shack with a telephone, and the only ambulance in town standing in front. Here, if anywhere in Pakistan, lies the truth of human religion and human morality".

Lieven says Pakistanis donate 5% of the GDP for charitable cause, making Pakistanis the most generous people in the world. As a benchmark, philanthropy accounts for 2.2% of gdp in the United States, 1.3% in the UK, 1.2% in Canada and 0.6% in India.

10. Weak State:

Unfortunately, Pakistani state, run by politicians and their hand-picked civilian administrators, is weak, incompetent and ineffective.

The Pakistani military and the civil society bails out the state each time it is found lacking. Examples include the earthquake in 2005 , Swat takeover by Taliban insurgents in 2009, and massive floods in 2010. In each of these cases, the politicians and the civilian administrators abandoned the people and the world media declared Pakistan a failed state on the verge of total collapse. But they were proved wrong.

The military launched the rescue and relief efforts by deploying all of its resources, and then the NGOs like Edhi Foundation stepped in to help the people stand on their feet again.

Summary:

While the worst 5% of the Pakistan story gets all the headlines, the reality of Pakistan today as vibrant society and a strong nation gets ignored by the mainstream media. The real story of Pakistan is the resilience of its 180 million citizens who continue to strive to make it better and stronger.

The Taliban who get all the coverage do not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Generations of military families have periodically fought FATA insurgencies. For example, Shuja Nawaz, the author of Crossed Swords says that his grandfather, his uncle and his cousin have all been deployed in Waziristan by the British and later Pakistani governments in the last century and a half. American withdrawal from the region will eventually calm the situation in Waziristan, and the rest of the country.

Climate change and the growing water scarcity are the main long-term existential threats to Pakistan and the region. Water per capita is already down below 1000 cubic meters and declining
What Pakistan needs are major 1960s style investments for a second Green Revolution to avoid the specter of mass starvation and political upheaval it will bring.

Note: Click here to get a pdf version of my presentation at P.A.C.C. in San Jose, CA.

Here's a video of Riaz Haq's interview on Aug 14, 2011:


Wide Angle Zoom: Formation and Future of Pakistan by wbt-tv

Related Links:

Haq's Musings
Ishrat Husain: Structural Reforms in Pakistan's Economy
Pakistan's Economic Performance 2008-2010

Incompetence Worse Than Corruption in Pakistan
Pakistan's Circular Debt and Load Shedding
US Fears Aid Will Feed Graft in Pakistan

Pakistan Swallows IMF's Bitter Medicine

Shaukat Aziz's Economic Legacy

Pakistan's Energy Crisis

Karachi Tops Mumbai in Stock Performance

India Pakistan Contrasted 2010
Pakistan's Foreign Visitors Pleasantly Surprised
After Partition: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

The "Poor" Neighbor by William Dalrymple
Pakistan's Modern Infrastructure

Video: Who Says Pakistan Is a Failed State?
India Worse Than Pakistan, Bangladesh on Nutrition
UNDP Reports Pakistan Poverty Declined to 17 Percent

Pakistan's Choice: Talibanization or Globalization

Pakistan's Financial Services Sector

Resilient Pakistan Defies Doomsayers

Pakistan's Decade 1999-2009

Pakistan's Other Story

South Asia Slipping in Human Development
Asia Gains in Top Asian Universities

BSE-Key Statistics
Pakistan's Multi-Billion Dollar IT Industry

India-Pakistan Military Comparison

Food, Clothing and Shelter in India and Pakistan

Pakistan Energy Crisis

IMF-Pakistan Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies

NEDUET Progress Report 2008

Is NED Making Progress?

Is NED University making progress to deal with the challenges of the 21st century? Is it competitive within Pakistan with other institutions of higher learning? How have NED University administration and faculty responded to the institution's low ranking by the HEC? How are the NED alumni faring in the real world? These are some of questions I explored at the NED Alumni Convention 2008 recently held at Hartford, CT.

As part of my effort to get answers, I participated in panel discussions at the Convention and followed up with Dr. Shamsul Haq, Mr. Jawaid Saeedi and others. I also drew upon my personal experience with NED alumni in Silicon Valley, CA.

Research Efforts at NEDUET:

According to Dr. Farooq Rafiqi, the Dean of Civil Engineering who was a panelist at the Convention, NED Civil Engineering Department has been engaged in US government funded research projects and published research on earthquake disaster mitigation. Dr. Rafiqi also mentioned collaboration with UC Berkeley on some of the work being done at NEDUET's Cowasjee Earthquake Study Center.

Building of Faculty:

Dr. Shamsul Haq talked about how NED is trying to build a faculty to support expanded graduate programs and research. There are currently 50 PhDs on NED faculty and 50 more are expected to return from universities overseas in the next three years.

Petroleum Engineering Department:

According to NED Alumnus Jawaid Saeedi, Development Manager at Schlumberger in Texas, the PE Department within the faculty of Civil Engineering will graduate its first batch in December 2008.

Mr. Saeedi believes that NEDUET has started with the right input from various experts. The members of the Advisory Board are capable of providing support to the department. This support could be in the form of establishing scholarships, chair(s) and funding for post-graduate education.

With Professor Dr Khalid Aziz of Stanford University, a well known international expert in the area of Petroleum Engineering education, on the Advisory Board NED University PE department has the best resource. NEDUET does definitely lack the faculty members who could implement the proposed curriculum in its entirety. As an example one of the premier PE departments is in Istanbul Technical University. It has 11 PE PhD's on their faculty. Mr. Saeedi suggests that NED should use more industry resources to teach the required courses.

Mr. Saeedi said that the department has provided field trips and seminars over the first four years of its existence. However, it needs to do much more in this area to stay up on the latest cutting-edge technology. That was one of the reasons Saeedi has proposed regular video conferences from North America. If a video conference is not possible, a NetMeeting session would be a good alternative to get NED alumni and other PE experts involved in improving education at the PE department.

Dr. Shamsul Haq indicated that the PE department has good collaboration with petroleum industry in Pakistan, particularly Pakistan Petroleum Limited which has established a PPL chair at the university.

HEC Ranking:

Dr. Shamsul Haq talked about the HEC ranking process which relied on inaccurate and unaudited information provided by the institutions. In the case of NED, Dr. Haq said NEDUET took the position that the HEC as the funding body should not be ranking universities. NEDUET, therefore, did not respond to the HEC request for data. HEC used its own, unconfirmed data to assess NED's ranking. NEDUET disagrees with both the data used and the resulting ranking.

Issues at NEDUET:

Dr. Haq acknowledged that there are some issues in terms of faculty leadership and performance that have dogged some departments. Lack of initiative and absence of serious commitment have let the administration and students down and resulted in departures of faculty members. Dr. Haq did not elaborate on the specifics. However, he did indicate that serious alumni involvement and guidance can help alleviate some of these issues in the future.

NED Alumni Successes:


Looking at the worlds of high-technology, engineering, finance, journalism, writing, sports, music, politics or business, you will find NEDians making their mark. Among the sports personalities, you will find famous names such as cricketers Saeed Anwar and Rashid Latif, Asian games swimming medalist Asif Kausar, and national hockey player Hasan Sardar. Among the published authors we have Dr. Naveed Sherwani with a book on chip design and Imran Qureshi with a book on Cisco Internetworking, Ali Hasan Cemendtaur with several books to his credit, just to name a few. In the world of music and entertainment, you know and love NEDians Mohammad Ali Shehki, Ali Haider and actor Mazhar Ali who have made their presence felt. In the world of finance you have a recognizable NEDian Zakir Mahmood as the CEO of Habib Bank, one of the largest banks in Pakistan and Mohammad Aboobaker, former Intel executive and venture capitalist in Silicon Valley. In academia, we have Professor Ali Minai at University of Cincinnati, Dr. Jamshed Jami Shah at Arizona State University and Dr. Khalid Razzaqi at Illinois State and many more. It may come as a surprise to some of you that Arif Mansuri, the managing editor of Pakistan Link, is an NEDian.

Last year, several young NEDians made their names as successful entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley. Of particular note are Raghib Hussain of Cavium which recently went public on NASDAQ, Naveed Sherwani of Open Silicon which is likely to go public soon, Rehan Jalil of Wichorus, a high-profile mobile WiMax start-up that has raised tens of millions of dollars in VC funding. These are just a few names from a long list of very successful NEDian businesses and executives found in the Valley.

Other NED Alumni have had major impact in shaping this high-tech valley through their contributions at well known local companies such as Cisco Systems, Intel and Sun. Whether it is Intel CPUs, VIA chipsets, Sun Servers, Cavium Security processors, Cisco routers, Diebold or NCR ATMs, you will find NED Alumni fingerprints in creating these products and systems. So many of the advances in Chipset technology and Network Security Processors can be attributed to VIA and VP-Net; both these companies were co-founded by NEDians, Idris Kothari and Saeed Kazmi. Some of the VPNet alumni started Cavium. Earlier, Saeed, Idris and Zoaib Rangwalla served on the advisory board of another high-flying company called Exodus. Zoaib served as their first CFO. More recently, Idris and Saeed have a new company called Vertical Systems in the area of hospitality computing. In the field of manufacturing, there is NexLogic, founded by Zulki Khan, an NEDian. In the field of systems and software, away from the semiconductor tradition of Silicon Valley and highly successful without any venture funding, is Infonox (founded by Dr. Safwan Shah, an NEDian). Infonox is a market and technology leader in the delivery of complex financial services on Kiosks, ATM’s and other point of service devices. Each of these companies can boast of many fortune 500 customers and millions of users. Cumulatively, these companies and products have added economic value worth billions of dollars.

Alumni Relations:

Dr. Shamsul Haq said NEDUET is building an alumni network to improve contact and relationship with its alumni. He encouraged all alumni to register at the NED website.

Future Direction:

After four annual conventions of NED alumni in US and closer contact with NEDUET faculty and administration, the time is now right to begin a collaboration process between NEDians in North America and the NED University in Karachi. The first step is to sign up with NED Alumni Network and follow that up with specific, concrete proposals such as sponsoring lecture series, funding chairs at NEDUET, regular visits by alumni to offer seminars in their respective fields and arranging industry-academia links for NED University to work on specific projects or research.

Are Women In Pakistan Better Off Today?

As the world celebrates International Women's Day today, it is natural to ask if Pakistani women have made substantial real progress in the last 5 years under President Musharraf. The answer to this question depends on who you ask and how you judge women's progress. In terms of the women's political representation in the nation's parliament, there has clearly never been a better time. The discriminatory laws such as the Hudood ordnance have been repealed. There are other indicators such as women's presence in the traditional male professions such as law, medicine, business, the police and the military. We have seen women inducted and grow in numbers in each of these male-dominated areas. Women's ranks have also grown in the nation's mass media and they are much freer than ever to express themselves in the choice of appearance, speech, dress, arts, entertainment etc. There have even been performances of The Vagina Monologues in Pakistan. Localized with Urdu and Punjabi words, The Vagina Monologues was first staged in Islamabad in 2003 for an audience of 160, mostly women, followed by performances for mixed audiences in Karachi and Lahore. Organized with AMAL, an NGO working on gender rights in Pakistan, the actresses added information about local incidents of violence against women and honor killings.

Along with the signs of women's progress in Pakistan, there have also been high-profile incidents of violence against women, such as the rape of Mukhtaran Mai that forced an honest discussion and debate on the status of women in rural Pakistan. Most of the women represented in Pakistani parliament are from the same privileged, feudal class that is largely responsible for discrimination against women in Pakistan. The women in parliament have not been particularly vocal in raising the women's issues in parliament and they have not offered any serious legislation other than the Women's Protection Bill that was offered and passed because of President Musharraf's personal intervention. The word "feudal princess" often used to describe late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto applies well to the majority the women members of parliament in Pakistan. There is a continuing large literacy gap of as much as 45 percent between men and women and the opportunities for rural women's education remain elusive.

In summary, the Musharraf era has seen measurable progress in improving the situation for women. However, a lot more needs to be done. What is really needed is a fundamental change in social attitudes toward women, particularly in rural Pakistan. A massive effort is required to make both men and women aware of the need and the benefits of women's empowerment for a better future of Pakistan. Healthy, educated and empowered women can help bring up better children to build Pakistan as a modern society that cares for its people.

Unreasonable Men: Martin Luther King to Barack Husain Obama

"A reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. An unreasonable man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." So said the famous British playwright George Bernard Shaw a century ago. The "unreasonable Man" label applied well to the famous civil rights leader Rev Martin Luther King in the 1960s and applies well today to US presidential candidate Senator Barack Husain Obama. As the Americans celebrate Martin Luther King's birthday today, we are reminded of the struggle he led in 1960s to make it possible for Obama to make history by recently winning the first of the presidential primaries in Iowa, a predominantly white state with very few Blacks or other minorities. When MLK started his non-violet civil disobedience movement (emulating Mahatma Gandhi), few thought he would succeed. But his sincere methods, powerful oratory and great persistence convinced a large number of Blacks and Whites to join in and eventually made it possible for civil rights legislation to pass. MLK did not live to see the day as he was assassinated in 1968. About 39 years later, as Barak Husain Obama spoke after the history-making Iowa win, he said, "They said this day would never come. Our time for change has come."
Here's a video of Obama's victory widely-acclaimed speech in Iowa:



Barack Hussain Obama's historic win in Iowa caucuses clearly signals that desire for change in America is strong and all-encompassing. The scope of this change includes a new willingness to accept a black man as commander-in-chief, a break from the Bush policies such as the choice of military force over soft power and diplomacy in international affairs, and increasing concern to provide ordinary citizens with broader access to healthcare and education. The people of Iowa strongly endorsed Obama's message of change and rejected Hilary's message of experience as continuation of the business-as-usual rather than a strength. Obama's victory speech carried live on national TV was widely well received. Some even compared it with the memorable speeches of FDR and MLK. The Obama candidacy has energized a lot of people, including a large number young men and women, and brought them into the electoral process. Just look at how large a presence Obama supporters have on Facebook and college campuses.
It seems that this nation appears ready to judge a person by the content of his(her) character rather than the color of the skin, as dreamed by Rev Martin Luther King in the 1960s.
From his message of change, it is clear that Obama wants to tap the clamoring for change in America by all, including Republicans. He wants to be a unifier to lead this effort for positive change in America.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome of this race, Obama has already made history by winning in Iowa as the first black presidential candidate. The fact that it happened in Iowa, the first state to vote in primaries and the state with more than 90% whites, is particularly encouraging for those of us looking for big changes in the US.
Comparing the hard-fought primaries for the political parties here in the US with the political parties in Pakistan, the less said the better. In Pakistan, Hilary Clinton would have already been crowned the leader of her party for life. It would be quick and efficient and still be considered entirely "democratic".
I have received a number of questions from my Pakistani friends on Obama's views from Pakistani perspective. Here is how I explain what Obama's win is likely to mean for Pakistan:

The US presidential elections are won mainly on domestic issues except the last election in the aftermath of 911 where security issues figured prominently and George W. Bush won.
Obama made statements about unilaterally sending US troops into Pak
that were widely ridiculed in the US. He has since backtracked on
those statements. US presidential candidates (with a few exceptions)
are not very knowledgeable about the world and rely mainly on experts
when the time comes to make policy. Obama will do the same, if he gets any further from the first two or three primaries. Democrats in general tend to favor democracy and human rights (since the Carter administration) rather than dictators often favored by Republicans. Democrats also tend to be more pro-India and pro-Israel
but usually are not pro-war. They are likely to emphasize soft power and diplomacy if they win the White House. A Democrat in the White House is not going to be good for President Musharraf,unless Musharraf really changes his ways.
The Democrats will probably reach out more to the civil society and political parties in Pakistan. The bottom line will still be to support secular forces and weaken the religious elements. Maulana Fazlur Rahman may be an exception to this. He is seen as someone who can help neutralize the anti-US elements in NWFP and Baluchistan.