Among 10 countries with the estimated net outflow of migrants exceeding 1 million over the period from 2010 through 2021, Pakistan saw 16.5 million migrants move overseas, the highest in the world, according to a report titled "World Population Prospects 2022" released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA).
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| Pakistani Workers' Overseas Migration Data (2010-2021). Source: Bureau of Emigration |
In many of these countries with more than one million people leaving, the outflows were due to temporary labor movements, such as for Pakistan (net outflow of 16.5 million), India (3.5 million), Bangladesh, (2.9 million), Nepal (1.6 million) and Sri Lanka (1.0 million). The report also said that India's population will surpass China's in 2023. Over half of the global population increase up to 2050 will be in just 8 countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines & Tanzania.
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| Population Sizes of China, India and Pakistan 1950-2099. Source: Our World in Data |
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| Top Remittance Receiving Countries in 2021. Source: World Bank |
Pakistan has received nearly $31 billion in worker remittances in 2021, up a whopping 20% from the prior year, according to the World Bank. This is a new record representing nearly 10% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This money helps the nation cope with its perennial current account deficits. It also provides a lifeline for millions of Pakistani families who use the money to pay for food, education, healthcare and housing. This results in an increase in stimulus spending that has a multiplier effect in terms of employment in service industries ranging from retail sales to restaurants and entertainment.
Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.
Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. This dividend is manifesting itself in high levels of worker exports and record remittances pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.
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| Pakistan Demographics |
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| Projected Population Decline in Emerging Economies. Source: Nikkei Asia |
A common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.
Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:
"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."
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| Migration vs Human Development Source: Hein de Haas |
Data shows that increased human and economic development is initially associated with increasing emigration. Any form of development in the poorest countries of the world is therefore likely to lead to accelerating emigration. Such findings contradict conventional thinking and force us to radically change our views on migration. Such rethinking can be achieved by learning to see migration as an intrinsic part of broader development processes rather than as a problem to be solved, or the temporary response to development “disequilibria”, according to The Conversation, a US publication.
Haq's Musings
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Pakistan Remittance Soar 21X
Pakistan's Growing Human Capital
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Pakistan Most Urbanized in South Asia
Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan
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28 comments:
Lol. For all Pakistanis/ Bangos who claim Indians are running out of their country, this is a slap on their face.
Kumar: "Lol. For all Pakistanis/ Bangos who claim Indians are running out of their country, this is a slap on their face"
That's the reason India has a serious unemployment and hunger issue. India's labor force participation rate is the lowest in South Asia.
https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html
"India’s LPR is much lower than global levels. According to the World Bank, the modelled ILO estimate for the world in 2020 was 58.6 per cent (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS). The same model places India’s LPR at 46 per cent. India is a large country and its low LPR drags down the world LPR as well. Implicitly, most other countries have a much higher LPR than the world average. According to the World Bank’s modelled ILO estimates, there are only 17 countries worse than India on LPR. Most of these are middle-eastern countries. These are countries such as Jordan, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Senegal and Lebanon. Some of these countries are oil-rich and others are unfortunately mired in civil strife. India neither has the privileges of oil-rich countries nor the civil disturbances that could keep the LPR low. Yet, it suffers an LPR that is as low as seen in these countries".
India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.
Indians will be studying in 15-24 age group. Also India's ILO is lower because of very low women's participation in BIMARU regions. If you have good education and are ready to put in right enterprise India provides the best opportunities compared to any tin pot countries in the region. No offense.
Kumar:"Indians will be studying in 15-24 age group"
You can't study if you are hungry.
India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.
https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html
3.5 million people outflow of Indians compared to 16.5M Pakistanis seem very low. Indian immigrants to US, Australia and other countries appears to be overwhelmingly high.
Iftikhar: "3.5 million people outflow of Indians compared to 16.5M Pakistanis seem very low. Indian immigrants to US, Australia and other countries appears to be overwhelmingly high"
I think immigrants are not counted as migrant workers.
India's Fiscal Q1 GDP growth seen at 14-15% on services' revival
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/q1-gdp-growth-seen-at-14-15-on-services-revival/articleshow/92943686.cms?from=mdr
Vasu: "India's Fiscal Q1 GDP growth seen at 14-15% on services' revival"
India's headline GDP growth figures are not translating into jobs.
https://www.riazhaq.com/2022/04/hindu-nationalist-rss-leadership.html
Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), the top decision-making body of India's RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), says that “the young generation is suffering from unemployment and the pandemic has made things even grim... We cannot turn a blind eye to unemployment. It is a crisis and it needs to be addressed.” The RSS was apparently reacting to the falling labor participation rate in India relative to Pakistan and the global averages. The RSS leadership wants the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on helping small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to create jobs. RSS likes Modi government's ‘Make in India’ initiative “but it needs to be sharpened even more and get more investment.” The resolution is titled, ‘The need to promote work opportunities to make Bharat self-reliant’. The solution offered by ABPS resolution: Take agro-based local initiatives to promote rural areas and create jobs, according to Ram Madhav, a member of the RSS executive committee.
Pakistan is exporting labour and skilled managers
That is Good
Pakistanis INVEST in their nation of Birth
They want to be be paid in USD in EU/GCCo
They want their kids to be educated in EU/GCC
But their risk averse nature will ensure that besides long some property in those nations,they invest in USD deposits in banks in Pakistan and also in the Pakistan real estate sector
That supports the USD and the 20 million Pakistanis abroad are like a magnet who bring in more.
10% of the Pakistani population are working abroad in skilled and unskilled work - as opposed to Indians/Nepalis who started off as toilet cleaners,in every nation they went to.
Indians are a breed of rapacious liars,cheaters and thieves - and have looted every nation, that they have been to
Julius Malema of South Africa said this about Hindoos and Indians
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/eff-julius-malema-indians-comments-2019/
“We know that our fathers and mothers who are domestic workers are paid nothing by the fellow South Africans who happen to be of Indian descent.”
Mr Haq might also note the Speech of a Kenyan PM in the Kenyan Parliament
Source - Kenya National Assembly Official Record (Hansard) Jul 21 - Dec 22, 1960,on Page 845,date of speech 9th December,1960
"Indeed there are goans in this country who wish to be loyal to Portugal,then I say you have no business being in Kenya,If that it what the Goan Community in this country wants to be,let them know from now on,they will have no place in this country..."
These INDIANS have destroyed South Africa and ZUMA ! Still the Africans do NOT get it
Indians are only fit to clean camel shit in Saudia - like the Goans.dindooohindoo
http://www.navhindtimes.in/goan-youth-trapped-in-saudi-desert-village-as-a-camel-herder/
Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Highest ever remittances during FY22
Jun’22: $2.8bn, +2% YoY, +18% MoM
FY22: $ 31.2bn, +6% YoY
https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1548885472851726336?s=20&t=gpIdgi1_4lPDmRp00u6aiA
As per your statistics, there are almost 5 times as many Pak emigrants as Indians. But they sent back only USD 31 billion as remittances as compared to USD 89 billion by Indians. Why?
Majumdar: "As per your statistics, there are almost 5 times as many Pak emigrants as Indians. But they sent back only USD 31 billion as remittances as compared to USD 89 billion by Indians. Why?"
The UN figures in my post are for one decade-- 2010-2021-- not total numbers.
There are a lot more Indians living abroad than Pakistanis.
Now we know which country is a hell hole!
Vasudeva: "Now we know which country is a hell hole!"
A common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.
Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:
"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."
https://www.riazhaq.com/2019/12/over-half-million-pakistanis-migrating.html
For Mr Majumdar and Vasudeva
There are 32 million Indians abroad,as per the MEA
Pakistanis are half that number
It is elementary maths
Besides,the Indians who loot their host nations,like in Zuma's Africa etc., keep their stash,in Dubai and India
They have full faith on the incompetence of the Indian Investigators,and the corruptibility of the Indian Politicians.dindooohindoo
Hmm.... What does this remind you of today?
1. High domestic consumption.
2. Massive borrowing from abroad.
3. Unsustainable currency levels.
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/latin-american-debt-crisis
US tops UAE in remittances to India: RBI paper
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/us-tops-uae-in-remittances-to-india-rbi-paper/articleshow/92964862.cms
Remittances from the Indian diaspora in the US surged through the Covid months that saw a contraction in inflows from the traditional Gulf stronghold as jobs, contact-intensive and outdoor-oriented, were lost in West Asia through the initial shutdowns.
Research by central bank economists showed that the US surpassed the UAE as the top source country, accounting for 23% of total remittances in 2020-21. "This corroborates with the World Bank report (2021) citing an economic recovery.
"A lot of the remittance flow has got to do with the jobs and economic conditions in the host countries," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda NSE 3.80 %. "Remittances from the Gulf region were almost nil because of the slowdown and many had to face job losses. But in the US where most Indians are employed in IT and other white-collar jobs, the employment situation was more stable during the pandemic restrictions.
As the top recipient, India was expected to be one of the worst affected - with a projected decline of 23% - as the host country basket of the diaspora was vulnerable to the twin effects of economic slowdown and slump in oil prices. Defying the early projections, however, India remained the top recipient, accounting for 12% of total global remittances, recording a marginal decline of 0.2% in 2020 and a growth of 8% in 2021.
In 2021, over 160,000 #Indians renounced citizenship, highest in past 5 years. 78,000 took #US citizenship. #Australia 23,533, #Canada 21,597, #UK 14,637, #Italy 5,986, #Netherlands 2187, #NewZealand 2643, #Singapore 2516, #Pakistan 41 and #Nepal 10. #Modi https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/in-2021-over-16-lakh-indians-renounced-citizenship/article65658065.ece
The number is the highest in the past five years, U.S. being the country whose citizenship is most sought after
Over 1.6 lakh Indians renounced their citizenship in 2021, highest in the past five years, according to information provided by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday. Over 78,000 Indians acquired U.S. citizenship, the highest among all other countries, by giving up Indian citizenship. India does not allow dual citizenship. As many as 362 Indians living in China also acquired Chinese citizenship.
Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, responding to a question by Fazlur Rehman, said in a written reply that “individuals renounced Indian citizenship for reasons personal to them.”
In 2018, MHA revised Form XXII under Citizenship Rules and included a column on “circumstances/reasons due to which applicant intends to acquire foreign citizenship and renounce Indian citizenship.”
The reply stated that the number of Indians living in Australia who relinquished their citizenship stood at 23,533, Canada- 21,597, U.K.-14,637, Italy-5,986, Netherlands- 2187, New Zealand- 2643, Singapore- 2516, U.S.A.- 78284, Pakistan-41 and Nepal-10.
A reply furnished by the ministry in 2021 said that the number of Indians who gave up citizenship in the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 stood at 1,33,049, 1,34,561, 1,44,017 and 85,248 respectively.
Big jump in numbers of Indians crossing into US from Canada and Mexico illegally.
https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/more-indians-trying-to-enter-the-us-illegally-via-south-america-and-canada/2538682/
The total number of undocumented Indian migrants apprehended at Southwest Land (US-Mexico) border by US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations (OFO) in 2022 FYTD (Oct 2021 to Apr 2022) were 8119 Indian, in 2021 (Oct 2020 till Sep 2021) were 2588, 2020 (Oct 2019 till Sep 2020) were 1120.
In 2022, undocumented Indian migrants surprisingly increased, numbers of undocumented Indian migrants in three months are equal to the number of undocumented Indian migrants in 2021 (October 2020 to September 2021) which is 2588.
On the US Northern Land (US-Canada) Border, the total number of undocumented Indian migrants apprehend at Northern Land Border by US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations (OFO) in 2022 FYTD (Oct 2021 to Apr 2022) were 5700 Indians, where in 2021 (Oct 2020 till Sep 2021) were 2225, 2020 (Oct 2019 till Sep 2020) were 3128.
Pakistan’s Economy Is In Deep Crisis, Tweets Economist Atif Mian
https://www.thefridaytimes.com/2022/07/21/pakistans-economy-is-in-deep-crisis-tweets-economist-atif-mian/
In a series of tweets, Pakistan-born economist Atif Mian analyses how the Pakistani rupee has lost 20% of its value and that the key issue will be “rationing”, in the short run.
Atif said that the rupee has lost 20 per cent of its value in the last three months while the current account is currently negative.
“Pakistan has left itself almost completely at the mercy of foreign assistance – this is the real sin of its political elite. Energy is mostly imported, medicine are mostly imported, and even in food unfortunately, Pakistan is no longer self-sufficient,” he said.
He added that when oil prices were going higher, Pakistan was selling some of the cheapest oil in the world domestically. “PTI government reduced price domestically and started to subsidise it. How can Pakistan pay for it?”
He said that the toughest challenge Pakistan faces is bringing back some modicum of credibility with investors and its own people.
“The powerful are knee deep in unproductive, rent-seeking sectors like real estate and sugar. That must change. The taxation and incentive structure must favour productive activities over unproductive ones and open up the economy to women,” he further said.
Earlier, the rupee continued its fall in the interbank market, closing at a historic low of Rs225 against the US dollar.
According to the SBP, the rupee closed at Rs224.92 against the dollar, down Rs2.93, from yesterday’s close of Rs221.99.
Commenting on the rupee fall, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said: “The panic in the market is primarily due to political turmoil, which will subside in a few days.”
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
Pakistan's economy is in deep crisis
a long 🧵
https://twitter.com/AtifRMian/status/1549782314829357056?s=20&t=FcKOMbksCi06Zn2jC15URA
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Atif Mian
@AtifRMian
The spread on $ debt (16%+) is in range where the number only matters for speculators now, the country is effectively shut off from private capital markets
Rupee has lost 20% of its value in 3 months, while current account remains negative and $ rollovers coming due
https://twitter.com/AtifRMian/status/1549783359764791297?s=20&t=FcKOMbksCi06Zn2jC15URA
Falling population
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-20-countries-with-the-fastest-declining-populations/
The Japanese Ambassador to Pakistan Kuninori Matsuda told journalists last Friday that Japan would add Pakistan to the list of nine other world countries eligible to apply for Japan employment visas.
While the employment scheme was initially announced for 9 countries – Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mongolia, Nepal, the Philippines, Cambodia, and China – Pakistan may soon become the 10 country part of the list.
According to Ambassador Matsuda, Japan is about to open the working visas for skilled workers from Pakistan, in a bid to tackle the aging and shrinking population of the country.
https://visaguide.world/news/japan/japan-to-offer-work-visas-to-skilled-pakistanis/
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Japan will make it easier to bring in talented foreign workers to regions outside the metropolitan areas by offering a fast-track path to permanent residency.
The government will revise a point system that grades individuals based on annual income, educational backgrounds and job experience. Those with high scores receive preferential treatment.
Now the government will add points for working at companies promoted by local communities. The government had rolled out the program on a trial basis in Hiroshima Prefecture and Kitakyushu and will now expand it nationwide.
The aim is to attract such specialists as researchers, engineers and business managers. Many companies in rural areas are facing a need for transformation in response to digitalization and decarbonization. In Hiroshima Prefecture, for example, semiconductor developers are trying to invite engineers.
An applicant whose point total reaches 70 will qualify for "highly specialized profession" status, and the period of stay in Japan required to obtain permanent residence will be shortened to three years from 10. At 80 points, only one year will be required. Parents and domestic servants will be allowed to come along, and spouses will be permitted to work.
Working in a local company will be worth 10 points and treated the same as having annual income of 10 million yen or more as a manager.
The number of workers certified as highly specialized reached 31,451 at the end of 2021. The number continue to rise despite the pandemic. By nationality, Chinese accounted for approximately 70% as of the end of 2020, followed by Indians at 6% and Americans at 5%.
Currently, daily arrivals are capped at 20,000 in response to COVID-19. The government is trying to lay the groundwork for stepped-up recruitment of foreign nationals in a post-coronavirus era.
It will also try to find smaller local companies seeking foreign talent with the help of the Japan External Trade Organization. In fiscal 2021, JETRO helped companies hire 180 people.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-immigration/Japan-s-small-cities-to-draw-foreign-talent-with-fast-track-residency
Remittances Are a Lifeline for Developing Countries With Economic Instability
https://thefintechtimes.com/remittances-are-a-lifeline-for-developing-countries-with-economic-instability/
Remittances sent worldwide have increased 64.3 per cent in the past decade, rising from $420.1billion 10 years’ ago to $653.4billion in the last year, shows research by ACE Money Transfer, the online remittance provider.
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Global economic growth is expected to slump from 6.1 per cent last year to 3.2 per cent this year — significantly lower than the 4.1 per cent anticipated in January. This is due to rising interest rates and spiralling inflation. This slowdown in growth is expected to hit low-income countries harder.
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Remittances also play a key role in urban areas, helping drive investment into real estate and infrastructure in developing countries.
Rashid Ashraf, CEO of ACE Money Transfer, says, “Remittances have a massive impact on people’s lives across the world. When times are tough and economies are struggling, this is when remittances are particularly important.
“Around three-quarters of remittances sent globally are used to cover essential things, like putting food on the family’s table and covering medical expenses, school fees or housing expenses. In addition, in times of crises, migrant workers tend to send more money home to cover loss of crops or family emergencies.”
Countries facing significant economic stress at present include Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nigeria and Nepal. Remittances play a key role in supporting the economies of all mentioned countries.
Remittances key to helping Sri Lanka and Nepal’s struggling economies
Sri Lanka in particular has struggled following the pandemic, with its economy having collapsed. The country has been short of cash to pay for vital food and fuel imports and has defaulted on its debt.
Remittances are a key pillar of Sri Lanka’s economy, reaching $7.1billion in the past year, up from $6.7billion the previous year. Remittances in Sri Lanka support economic growth, reduce the burden on social security payments and help alleviate poverty. Increases in remittances could significantly aid Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.
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How remittances can help moderate inflation in Pakistan and Nigeria
Pakistan and Nigeria are two other countries facing economic difficulties where remittances can play a key role in their recoveries. Both countries have been struggling with the effects of surging inflation this year.
Pakistan’s currency has devalued 28 per cent compared to the US dollar so far this year, fuelling surges in the prices of vital imported goods such as fuel, cooking oil and grains.
This has made remittances to Pakistan, which have risen 26 per cent to a record $33billion in the past year, even more important. Remittances are a key source of foreign currency for Pakistan and play a significant role in supporting its currency. This is in turn can help control inflation and the price of essential goods and services in the country.
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The role of remittances in strengthening resilient economies like the Philippines
Remittances can also play an important role in countries where the economy has remained resilient. This includes the Philippines’ economy, which has continued to show rapid expansion this year despite global headwinds.
An important stabilising factor in its economy has been remittances, which have reached a record high of $34.9billion in the past year. Remittances in the Philippines are important in supporting domestic consumer spending, which has driven the country’s economic growth.
Remittances are a crucial source of foreign capital for many developing countries. Unlike other flows of private capital, remittances have remained resilient throughout the pandemic. As economics across the world continue to recover, remittances continue to play a vital role in helping countries build resilience and drive economic growth.
World #Population Is About to Hit 8 Billion—Some Argue It Is Near Its Peak. Demographers’ forecasts vary and are based on assumptions such as how well-educated and healthy people will be, especially #women. #Africa #heath #education #development #fertility https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-population-is-about-to-hit-8-billionand-some-argue-it-is-near-its-peak-11660252977
But as we cross eight billion people, it is worth considering that the world might never make it to 10 billion, or even nine billion, and that the world’s major demographic problems won’t stem from the growing masses but from shrinking countries, aging populations and dwindling workforces.
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Later this year—any day now really—the global population is projected to cross eight billion people. The United Nations recently pegged the date as Nov. 15, but we don’t know with any exact precision.
Since the 1960s, when the global number of people first hit three billion, it has taken a bit over a decade to cross each new billion-person milestone, and so it might seem natural to assume that nine billion humans and then 10 billion are, inexorably, just around the corner. That is exactly what the latest population projections from the U.N. and the U.S. Census Bureau have calculated.
But as we cross eight billion people, it is worth considering that the world might never make it to 10 billion, or even nine billion, and that the world’s major demographic problems won’t stem from the growing masses but from shrinking countries, aging populations and dwindling workforces.
We aren’t talking about meteor strikes, alien invasions or apocalyptic scenarios (though, of course, that could do it, too) but rather straightforward demographic projections that conclude that birthrates have been falling so rapidly around the world that we could potentially reach the peak of human population in less than a generation.
The U.N.’s projections are the best known. But an alternate set of projections has been gaining attention in recent years, spearheaded by the demographer Wolfgang Lutz, under the auspices of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital at the University of Vienna, of which Mr. Lutz is founding director.
These forecasts project the population peak is closer and lower. A look at the assumptions behind the forecasts shows they are hardly implausible.
“There’s two big questions,” Mr. Lutz explains, that determine whether his forecasts or the U.N.’s end up closer to the mark. “First, how rapidly fertility will decline in Africa…. The other question is China, and countries with very low fertility, if they will recover and how fast they will recover.”
The U.N. projects population using historical trends for each country, and calculating how other countries in similar conditions fared in the past.
Lyman Stone, the director of research for the population consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, compares this methodology to technical analysis in stocks, a method of looking for historical patterns and predicting if they are likely to recur.
The Wittgenstein forecasts, by contrast, look not only at historical patterns, but attempt to ask why birthrates rise and fall. A big factor, not formally included in the U.N.’s models, is education levels. Put simply: As people, especially women, have greater opportunities to pursue education, they have smaller families. (U.N. demographer Vladimíra Kantorová said the U.N.’s approach implicitly accounts for development, urbanization, women’s education and contraceptive use since it relies on historical data from countries that underwent similar transitions.)
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The U.N. projects Africa’s population will grow from 1.3 billion today to 3.9 billion by century’s end.
Once education is accounted for, Wittgenstein’s baseline scenario projects Africa’s population will rise to 2.9 billion during that time period. In another scenario from Wittgenstein, which it calls the “rapid development” scenario, the population of Africa will only reach 1.7 billion by century’s end.
Germany is hoping to combat its shortage of skilled workers with a new ‘opportunity card’.
https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/09/06/skilled-workers-are-in-demand-as-germany-tackles-labour-shortage-with-new-points-based-vis
The ‘chancenkarte’ will use a points system to enable workers with required skills to come to Germany more easily.
It is part of a strategy proposed by Labour Minister Hubertus Heil to address the country’s labour shortages, which is due to be presented to the government this autumn.
Every year, quotas will be set depending on which industries need workers. Three out of four of the following criteria must also be met to apply for the scheme:
A degree or vocational training recognised by Germany
Three years’ professional experience
Language skills or a previous stay in Germany
Under 35 years old
Currently, most non-EU citizens need to have a job offer before they can relocate to Germany. A visa for job seekers already exists, but the 'chancenkarte' is expected to make it easier and faster for people looking to find work in Germany.
Citizens of certain countries with visa agreements can already enter Germany for 90 days visa-free but are only permitted to take up short-term employment.
The opportunity card will allow people to come and look for a job or apprenticeship while in the country rather than applying from abroad. Applicants must be able to prove they can afford to pay their living expenses in the mean time.
The exact details of the scheme are yet to be formalised.
Why does Germany need to attract skilled workers?
This year, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany has risen to an all time high. Earlier this year, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found 1.74 million vacant positions throughout the country.
In July, staff shortages affected almost half of all companies surveyed by Munich-based research institute IFO, forcing them to slow down their operations.
From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent for post-#COVID #economic boost. Battle for high-skill workers is not just an #Asian phenomenon, but a global one. #UK has launched a new system called High Potential Individual visa for university grads.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/From-Singapore-to-Thailand-Asia-courts-talent-for-post-COVID-boost
TOKYO/SINGAPORE/BANGKOK -- During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore tightly closed its borders. While many countries did the same, it was a sharp shock to the system for a city-state that had thrived as a hub for travel and as a magnet for foreign workers.
As some foreign nationals left, and entries were largely halted, Singapore's population dropped by 4.1% over the year through June 2021, to 5.45 million.
The latest data released on Sept. 27, however, shows nearly as swift a turnaround, thanks to a gradual lifting of restrictions. The population rebounded by 3.4% to 5.63 million, largely driven by workers in sectors like construction and shipyards -- the unsung labor that keeps the economy going.
Now, Singapore hopes to attract more highly skilled professionals with expertise and ideas that could jolt growth in the post-COVID era. "This is an age where talent makes all the difference to a nation's success," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual National Day Rally speech on Aug. 21, days before his government announced a new type of visa designed to lure such people. "We need to focus on attracting and retaining top talent, in the same way we focus on attracting and retaining investments."
The city-state is far from the only place that covets high-flyers. From Thailand to Taiwan, a competition is heating up to entice the best of the best, and to fill hiring gaps with people equipped to excel in today's pandemic-altered workplace.
Innovative sectors like digital technology and biotechnology are especially hungry for talent.
Singapore's latest carrot is called the Overseas Networks and Expertise (ONE) Pass, a new visa for high-skill professionals who earn at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($20,800) a month. The program will allow people with these visas to stay at least five years and work at multiple organizations.
Thailand, meanwhile, began taking applications on Sept. 1 for a new visa that lets global professionals stay in the country for 10 years. The government hopes to bring in 1 million foreign nationals with the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa, designed for those with skills in targeted sectors such as electric vehicles, biotechnology and defense.
Tourism-oriented Thailand, like Singapore, has been hit hard by travel disruptions. Both also have aging populations. While Singapore is expecting growth in the 3% to 4% range this year, the Asian Development Bank's latest outlook forecasts Thailand's growth rate at 2.9%, far below Indonesia's expected growth of 5.4%, Malaysia's 6% and Vietnam's 6.5%.
Malaysia, for its part, aims to attract wealthy investors with its new Premium Visa Program. The program, which began accepting applications on Saturday, allows people who can deposit 1 million ringgit (about $215,000) in the country and have an annual offshore income of around $100,000 to stay for up to 20 years. During that time, they can invest, run businesses and work.
As part of a broader move to bring in more human resources, Australia recently raised its annual permanent immigration cap to 195,000 for the current fiscal year, from 160,000.
Pakistani migrants in Europe
According to the 2020 International Migrant Stock compiled by UNDESA4, a total of 952,993 Pakistani nationals resided in Europe in 2020. Fifty-eight per cent of them were male and forty-two percent were female. The number of Pakistani nationals in each European country in 2020 is shown in Annex 1, together with gender-disaggregated numbers. UNDESA estimates the number and composition of migrants on the basis of data obtained from population censuses, population registers and national surveys. The dataset provides estimates of the international migrant stock by age, sex and origin for the mid-point (1 July) of each year: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.
https://migration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/reports/PAK_2021_Migrant%20Presence_Europe.pdf
European Countries Total Migrants Male Female
Denmark 14,318 7,503 6,815
Estonia 261 195 66
Finland 3,134 2,090 1,044
Iceland 94 69 25
Ireland 10,570 6,667 3,903
Latvia 228 204 24
Lithuania 7 3 4
Norway 21,140 10,853 10,287
Sweden 16,597 9,891 6,706
United Kingdom 537,047 282,645 254,402
Greece 8,823 4,435 4,388
Italy 124,800 89,557 35,243
Malta 549 300 249
Portugal 2,217 1,469 748
Slovenia 42 31 11
Spain 63,819 41,074 22,745
Austria 6,097 4,076 2,021
Belgium 13,246 8,143 5,103
France 27,203 16,341 10,862
Germany 79,227 53,993 25,234
Liechtenstein 7 5 2
Luxembourg 279 169 110
Switzerland 5,381 3,304 2,077
The Netherlands 14,104 8,030 6,074
Bulgaria 290 182 108
Hungary 1,055 780 275
Poland 278 257 21
Romania 625 438 187
Russia 726 579 147
Slovakia 122 110 12
The Czech Republic 662 501 161
Why are women in #China not having more babies despite gov't incentives? With rapidly #aging and declining #population and slowing #economic growth, China’s leaders are asking #women to have three children again, but it's too late. #economy #fertility https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/17/why-are-women-in-china-not-having-more-babies/
Fewer people might mean slower growth in China, which will be felt by the U.S. and beyond.
“They’ve now become, you know, the center of the global manufacturing superhighway and are typically the largest contributor to growth every year,” said Scott Kennedy with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.
Chinese officials often credit the so-called one-child policy for preventing over 400 million births, but some analysts say China’s population would have declined regardless.
“It’s just simply a rule across all countries, that as you urbanize, and as you get a more educated female population that enters the workforce, fertility numbers fall,” Kennedy said.
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The number of Chinese workers is already declining; according to the World Bank, in 2001, China had 10 workers to support one retiree.
“In 2020, that was down to five working folks for each retiree and by 2050 it’ll be down to two,” Kennedy said.
He believes China still has time to offset the effects of population decline, including by boosting productivity, increasing the retirement age and lifting restrictions on people from rural areas to freely settle in cities with their families.
“I don’t think the problem has become so severe that demography is destiny, and China is destined to radically slow down and its chances of becoming an economic superpower breaking out of the middle income trap have been dashed,” Kennedy said.
“[But] these are pretty significant challenges.”
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28-year-old Joy Yu’s parents each had three siblings. As they were growing up in the 1970s, the Chinese government started to limit the number of babies born.
Government statistics show on average a woman in China went from having about three babies in the late 1970s to just one.
Four decades on, China’s leaders are asking women to have three children again, which doesn’t sit well for Yu, an only child.
“For me to give birth to three children, my future husband must be rich enough to make sure I can live well without a job. This is a big challenge,” Yu said.
Last year, China’s population dropped for the first time in six decades by 850,000. That still leaves the country with 1.41 billion people but if the decline continues, there will be multiple impacts on the economy.
China began enforcing birth limits in the late 1970s when the country was poor and there were too many mouths to feed.
In a Chinese propaganda film called the Disturbance of Gan Quan Village, the birth restrictions were justified on economic grounds.
“We should put our energy into getting rich rather than keep having children,” says one woman in the film.
She’s sitting among a group of women picking corn kernels off the cob. “Aren’t we getting poorer with each child we have,” she says. The rest of the group nods in agreement.
Chinese leaders enforced, sometimes brutally, the so-called one-child policy in 1979, just as the country was coming out of the tumultuous Cultural Revolution.
“The post-[Chairman] Mao leadership thought that economic development would be the new basis for the party’s political legitimacy and based on pseudo-scientific and demographic projections, limiting birth to one child per married heterosexual couple,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.
There were exceptions. Some ethnic minority groups could have up to three children. People from rural areas could try for a second child if their first-born was not a boy. Later, if both parents had no siblings they could have two children. Starting in 2016, China raised the birth limit for everyone to two children, but there was no sustained baby bump.
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