Monday, July 13, 2020

COVID19 in Pakistan: Test Positivity Rate and Deaths Declining

Percentage of people in Pakistan testing positive for coronavirus is going down along with declining deaths, according to data from multiple independent sources. The effective transmission rate Rt continues to be less than one, indicating that each infected person is infecting fewer than one person, according to data from London's Imperial College. However, this is no time to relax. Pakistanis need to continue to take all precautions, including wearing face masks, to ensure that COVID19 fades out in the country.
COVID19 Effective Reproductive Rate. Source: Imperial College, London, UK

Pakistan's coronavirus transmission rate of less than 1.0 is among the lowest in its region. Neighboring India's Rt is 1.2, Iran's 1.12 and Bangladesh 1.05 are all significantly higher than Pakistan's 0.74.

Positive Test Rate Declines to 12.7% From Peak of 22.4% on June 4, 2020

Seven-day rolling average of people testing positive for COVID19 is at 12.7% now, down from 22.4% on June 4, 2020. Biweekly deaths have declined 23.57%.

Pakistan COVID19 BiWeekly Deaths Decline 23.7%


London's Imperial College estimates that COVID19 pandemic in Pakistan is "on course to fade out", a testimony to Prime Minister Imran Khan's government's effective handling of the the ongoing global health crisis.

COVID19 World Map Shows Pakistan Stable. Source: Imperial College


At just 0.74, the effective coronavirus reproduction rate (Rt) in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. An Rt of less than 1 indicates each infected person is infecting fewer than one person.  Only Italy (0.63), Netherlands (0.62), Canada (0.50) and Spain (0.02) have lower reproduction rates than Pakistan's. However, this is no time to relax. Pakistanis need to continue to take all precautions, including wearing face masks, to ensure that COVID19 fades out in the country.

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7 comments:

Riaz Haq said...

#Lockdowns being reimposed in parts of #India. 30,000 new #COVID cases & 582 more deaths, bringing totals to over 936,000 cases and over 24,000 fatalities. The actual numbers are likely far higher due to limited testing. #Modi #BJP #economy #Hindutva https://ti.me/2ZvBFrL

In Bangalore, a key technology hub in southern India where offices for major tech companies like Amazon and Apple are located, the government ordered a weeklong lockdown that began Tuesday evening.

The initial boost that India’s economy received in June after the nationwide lockdown was relaxed is being halted by these localized lockdowns in high-risk areas, experts say. Economic indicators like labor participation rates and electricity consumption are down this month compared to June, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent think-tank.

India’s minister for small and medium businesses, Nitin Gadkari, said last week that experts were predicting a loss of $133.3 billion in the next year.
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As India’s coronavirus caseload approaches 1 million, lockdowns are being reimposed in parts of the country as governments try to shield the health system from being overwhelmed.

India on Wednesday reported nearly 30,000 new virus cases and 582 more deaths, raising its totals to more than 936,000 cases and over 24,000 fatalities. The actual numbers, like elsewhere globally, are likely far higher due to limited testing and poor surveillance, experts say.

A two-week lockdown that starts Thursday has been imposed in Bihar, an eastern state with a population of 128 million that is marred by a fragile health system. Since Saturday, Bihar has recorded over 1,000 cases each day, despite limited testing.

Nearly 2.5 million poor migrant workers who had been stranded during India’s initial lockdown of the entire country have returned to the state after they lost their jobs in large cities.

Authorities are now increasingly trying to focus their lockdowns to shield the economy from further losses, and nearly a dozen states are turning to localized clampdowns in areas where many cases have been detected. Referred to as “containment zones” by public health officials, these can be as small as a few houses on a street in New Delhi, the capital.

Jayaprakash Muliyil, an epidemiologist at Christian Medical College in southern India, warned that the country’s actual death toll from the coronavirus could be much higher due to the absence of a robust mechanism to report deaths in rural areas. “We don’t have the infrastructure,” he said.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, said that with new cases accelerating, India’s strategy must focus on keeping case numbers as low as possible and saving as many lives as it could.

“The standard stuff is the standard stuff: You have got to continue testing and isolation … make sure there are few to no indoor gatherings,” he said.

Experts have pointed out that India will see multiple peaks in different parts of the country.

Jha warned that India has to ensure that it continues building on supplies and that it has enough beds for people who will need to be hospitalized in the coming days. “You can’t overprepare,” he said.

Riaz Haq said...

Sacrificial animals for #EidulAdha: Online buying picks up in #Pakistan amid #Covid_19 pandemic with big makeshift markets banned. Many meat brands & cattle farm owners have websites taking orders. They're reporting 5X more orders than in past. #ecommerce http://v.aa.com.tr/1916015

Traditionally, Karachiites visit the Sohrab Goth Maweshi Mandi – claimed as Asia's largest cattle market – to buy the animals of their choice to sacrifice on Eid al-Adha, one of the two main Muslim festivals which takes place between the 10th and 13th of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah.

Pakistan is expected to start celebrating Eid on on July 31, subject to the sighting of the moon.

But the conditions this year are entirely different due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which has infected millions and changed the global lifestyle altogether.

"We expect a 50% fall in the number of buyers this year, mainly because of the coronavirus fallout," Zaki Abro, an organizer of the cattle market in Karachi, told Anadolu Agency.

While citizens' purchasing power has fallen due to virus restrictions, he said, sellers, on the contrary, want to make up for the losses they have incurred during the months-long lockdown, leading to a significant increase in animal prices.

Last year, nearly 500,000 animals were sold for 6 billion Pakistani rupees ($35.8 million) in the Sohrab Goth market alone.

"There is no shortage of animals. A higher number of cattle are available this year but the problem is the lack of ability to buy," Abro said, adding that sales are also likely to drop by half compared to last year.

Marking the willingness of Prophet Ibrahim to sacrifice his son on Allah’s command, financially-able Muslims slaughter animals such as cows, sheep and goats. The meat is then shared among family and friends, and also donated to the poor.

Online platforms and charities

Platforms providing online buying and sacrificial services have existed in Pakistan for years. However, the pandemic situation coupled with new restrictions have increased their popularity by manifold this year.

Unlike in the past, authorities have banned the setting up of small makeshift cattle markets within cities, and slaughter of animals in open spaces, fearing a spike in a relatively dwindling virus infection ratio, is also prohibited.

Taking advantage, scores of meat brands, and cattle farm owners have launched websites offering citizens "manageable," and "convenient" ways of sacrificing cattle. So much so, several companies are providing online sacrifice services to overseas Pakistanis, mainly in the US and Europe, as well.

"We have booked orders five times higher than in 2019," Arshad Hussain, an official of a popular countrywide online sacrificial service provider, told Anadolu Agency.

"A majority of them will simply collect the meat on the first, second, and third day of Eid as per their booking. Few have bought animals that we will deliver on their doorstep before Eid," he said.

Most of the orders, he added, had been received from big cities like Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar.

With the virus being highly contagious, people have been advised to avoid large crowds.

Even though many are visiting the markets to buy animals after inspecting them physically, things have changed.

Aamir Hussain, a Karachi-based system developer, would usually bring goats home a week before Eid as his children enjoy taking care of them. But not this time.

"I have booked qurbani [sacrifice] through an online website this year as I am not comfortable with the idea of exposing myself by visiting the cattle market, and slaughtering the cattle outside my house," he told Anadolu Agency. "I am not going to do that this time. It will be too risky for myself, and my family."

Riaz Haq said...

#Covid19 Attacks #India’s Vast #Rural Heartland. #Coronavirus cases mount after #migrant workers returned home to poor areas with weak #healthcare. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva - WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-attacks-indias-vast-rural-heartland-11595518230


Across much of rural India, home to 900 million of the country’s 1.3 billion people, the story is similar. Nationwide, infections have surged, passing 1.2 million confirmed cases, ranking India behind the U.S. and Brazil in the global pandemic. On a daily basis, India announced a record 45,720 new infections Thursday, with 1,128 deaths, putting it behind the U.S. for daily increase in infections.

India’s urban centers—particularly Mumbai, New Delhi and Chennai— have been hit the hardest so far, but poorer rural states have been leading recent new-case growth.

West Bengal, where Dokangora is, for example, has seen new cases rise more than two times the national average during the past two weeks. It is reporting more than 2,000 new cases a day now, up from fewer than 500 a day last month.

Official figures likely greatly undercount the number infected, experts say, because so few tests are happening, particularly in rural areas.

The main vector, health experts say, has been migrant workers bringing the virus home with them to swaths of the country that have very little health-care infrastructure.

“The movement from urban to rural India has set the stage for the rural wave,” said T. Jacob John, a retired professor of virology at the Christian Medical College in the southern city of Vellore.

Everyone, it seems, is scared. Mohammad Akhibul said he hasn’t dared to step out of his tiny house for two weeks. His family’s eight members have been sharing one bar of soap to wash their hands. Local authorities provided two bars, but the family has decided to save one for later.

Mr. Akhibul said he and his relatives can’t work and are surviving on government food rations that neighbors drop at their door.

Mr. Akhibul, 31 years old, lost his job as a machine operator at a factory in New Delhi when Covid-19 hit. He returned to the village with his wife and two children. Despite being quarantined for 14 days at a rural center, his family is being shunned, he said.

“We are not allowed to get water from the village pump,” he said. “They don’t allow their kids to play with our children.” The family gets water once a day from the pond where farm animals drink, he said.

The village (Dokangora, West Bengal) is still in the early phases of the outbreak, but officials from the rural district of Purba Medinipur, where the village is located, say they are already overwhelmed. The district has had to manage the return of more than 70,000 people from other states, often from India’s current coronavirus epicenters of Mumbai and New Delhi.

The district has set up more than 70 centers for screening and quarantining returnees who have to be taken care of for two weeks before they are allowed to go back to their villages.

District officials said they had to quell protests at the schools being used as quarantine centers as parents were worried the virus would spread to the schools and infect their children.

The local coronavirus hotline has been ringing constantly with questions from residents who have all types of symptoms and concerns, not knowing what to do. Villagers often call the hotline to report on their neighbors who have come home from the big cities.

“They panic if someone coming from outside has a mild cough or is sneezing,” said Tulika Banerjee, a local government officer who helps oversee Dokangora village. “They call our help line to say they have coronavirus.”

Riaz Haq said...

50 different interventions. 2300 smart lockdowns covering 47mn people based on data driven evidence. A fall in positivity from over 22% to below 10%, & excluding Sindh, near 5% for the country.

@MBilalLakhani
talk with SAPM Zafar Mirza on controlling C19



https://youtu.be/CEafplkFuUc

https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1287063746976849920?s=20





Riaz Haq said...

2300 smart lockdowns covering 47 million people is just the beginning of the story

Here’s the inside scoop on how 🇵🇰 flattened its Corona curve, ahead of expectations, with no shortage of hosp beds, ventilators or PPE

Full video: https://youtu.be/CEafplkFuUc

https://twitter.com/javedhassan/status/1287063746976849920?s=20

Riaz Haq said...

One of the key factors in cutting down COVID19 infection rate has been change in people's behavior, according to Dr.Zafar Mirza. They's wearing masks and taking other precautions to prevent transmission. He said the mass hysteria stirred up in the media came mainly from the rich and the upper middle class. The voices of the ordinary people and daily wage earners were not part of public discourse reported by the media.

https://youtu.be/CEafplkFuUc

Riaz Haq said...

Excepts of Wall Street Journal Story Why Youthful, Conservative Pakistan Is a Coronavirus Bright Spot

Two months ago, Pakistan was drawing unfavorable Covid-19 comparisons with Brazil

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-youthful-conservative-pakistan-is-a-coronavirus-bright-spot-11596297600

"Major hospitals report beds are freeing up in previously overflowing coronavirus wards, even in Pakistan’s biggest and hardest-hit city, Karachi," the Wall Street Journal said in a report from Islamabad. "The tally of patients on ventilators has halved over the past month," it adds.

"This is all happening as Pakistan’s neighbours to the east and west — India and Iran — are still reporting that infection rates are climbing steadily," the Journal said.


Even more surprising, the report added, was how the progress in Pakistan — where coronavirus was spreading out of control some two months ago — came after Prime Minister Imran Khan resisted the World Health Organization's (WHO) advice, declaring in May that lockdowns are too costly for the poor and reopening the economy.


"We charted the tough course between a strict lockdown and completely opening up," Dr Faisal Sultan, an infectious diseases physician brought in by PM Imran Khan as his adviser for COVID-19.

The report about Pakistan’s success comes when even the US — a superpower with enormous resources at its disposal — struggles to control the pandemic, with 4.7 million cases and 157,000 deaths.

PM Imran started wearing a mask in public

Pakistani health officials have not declared a win, the report said, adding they worry that progress could be undone, particularly with the current Eid-ul-Azha holiday and the upcoming Muharram, both of which traditionally attract public gatherings across the country.

Relatively low testing levels in Pakistan have also raised questions about the scale of the decline, the Journal noted, but quoted medical experts as saying that the turnaround trend is clear. Tellingly, the proportion of tests coming back positive has more than halved, it said, citing official figures.

Pakistan locked its economy down in March, early on in its outbreak, which kept the virus from spreading widely while the population stayed home, the WSJ stated. However, after the restrictions were lifted in May, many Pakistanis celebrated the end of the fasting month of Ramazan with shopping sprees and visits to family, unleashing a burst of infections.

The rapid spread jolted people into changing their behavior, with more mask-wearing, hand-washing, and maintaining social distance, Dr Sultan was cited as saying. The preventive messages increased from the government and public service campaigns.

The prime minister also started wearing a mask in public, the report highlighted

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Just 4% of Pakistan’s population is over 65 — compared with 16% in the US and 23% in Italy, according to United Nations data. The average age in Pakistan is 22, more than a decade younger than Brazil, and 25 years younger than Italy, noting also that there are no bars and nightclubs.

There are also no institutionalised homes for the elderly, sites of deadly outbreaks elsewhere. Women tend not to go out of the home to work, meaning the workforce is overwhelmingly made up of men who are mostly young, it was pointed out.