India's Role in Quetta Bombing: A Conspiracy Theory?

"How do you tackle Pakistan?.....We start working on Pakistan's vulnerabilities-- economic, internal security, political, isolating them internationally, it can be anything..... it can be defeating Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan...... You stop the terrorists by denying them weapons, funds and manpower. Deny them funds by countering with one-and-a-half times more funding. If they have 1200 crores give them 1800 crores and they are on our side...who are the Taliban fighting for? It's because they haven't got jobs or someone has misled them. The Taliban are mercenaries. So go for more of the covert thing (against Pakistan)..." Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor

Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's Balochistan province, has been hit by a major terrorist attack yet again with tragic consequences. At least 70 people, many of them lawyers, have been killed and scores more injured in a massive bomb bast at a hospital. The carnage has been met with shock and multiple claims of responsibility by various terrorist groups.

Balochistan government has accused India as the sponsor of this carnage. This charge has been dismissed by many, including Pakistan's liberal pundits, as just another "conspiracy theory".  Let's examine this in the light of the quote from India's National Security Advisor that I shared at the top of this piece.

What is Conspiracy Theory?

What is the origin of the term "conspiracy theory"? Who coined it and for what purpose? In April 1967, the CIA wrote a dispatch that coined the term “conspiracy theory” to attack anyone who challenged the "Official" narrative put out by the US government. The dispatch was marked “psych” – short for “psychological operations” or disinformation – and “CS” for the CIA’s “Clandestine Services” unit.

It's a testament to the power of the CIA disinformation ops that the term has gained such wide currency around the world.  It has become particularly popular among Pakistan's lazy liberal elite who use it as a substitute for serious research to get at the truth.

Pakistan Terror Fatalities Decline After Zarb e Azb Source: SATP 

Is India's Role in Balochistan Conspiracy Theory?

To answer this question, let us begin with a quote from former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel who said: "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".

On what basis did Chuck Hagel make the statement about India's use of Afghan territory to attack Pakistan? Was he, too, just another victim of conspiracy theories? Off course not. Secretary Hagel had the benefit of intelligence briefings by the CIA given to him in multiple capacities: first as US Senate Intelligence committee member and then as US Defense Secretary.

Since Mr. Hagel made his statement, there has been further evidence of India's involvement in Balochistan with the recent arrest of Kulbhushan Yadv, a serving Indian Navy officer working under cover in Balochistan. Yadav has confessed to working with terrorists launching attacks in Pakistan.

US analyst Laura Rozen explained India-Taliban nexus as follows: "While the U.S. media has frequently reported on Pakistani ties to jihadi elements launching attacks in Afghanistan, it has less often mentioned that India supports insurgent forces attacking Pakistan, the former (US) intelligence official said. "The Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan," the former (US) intelligence official who served in both countries said. "The same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there."

Is India Using Iranian territory against Pakistan?

The arrest of Iran-based Indian agent Kulbhushan Yadav has also confirmed that India is using Chahbahar port project in Iran as cover for subversive actions in Pakistan.

The fact that India has used Iran to hurt Pakistan is not new. In 2009, American analyst and author Christine Fair said this: "Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity!"

History of Indian Covert Wars Against Pakistan:

What India is doing today to sponsor terror in Pakistan is not new. R.K. Yadav, a former intelligence officer in India's intelligence agency, has written an entire book titled "Mission R&AW" to document RAW's covert war against Pakistan. Yadav has detailed India's ties several Pakistani leaders including Khan Abul Wali Khan and Shaikh Mujib ur Rehman. He has confirmed the veracity of "Agartala Conspiracy" that was dismissed as a "conspiracy theory" back in 1960s. Yadav has documented how Indian Army and intelligence officers organized, equipped and trained Mukti Bahini before India invaded East Pakistan in 1971.

Summary:

Indian involvement in sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan is not a "conspiracy theory". There is large and growing evidence of it.  Ex US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has talked about it. Several US analysts have detailed it. Kulbhushan Yadav, a serving Indian Navy Officer, arrested in Balochistan has confessed to it. Revelation of London Police documents linking MQM leader to Indian funding shows it. Statements made by Ajit Doval back in 2014 and his later appointment as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's lend credence to it. So does India's past behavior against Pakistan as acknowledged in "Mission R&AW", a book by ex RAW officer R.K. Yadav.

Next Steps:

Pakistan can not win its war against terrorism by just fighting the various terrorist groups including the Taliban militants and Baloch insurgents and their allies engaged in frequent large-scale carnage on Pakistani soil. These groups are merely tools of India's covert war machine. Pakistan must beef up its counter-intelligence efforts to defeat India's intelligence operations by infiltrating them. Pakistan must do everything possible to defeat India's covert war.

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/tVIQ9U8jOEs





https://vimeo.com/178837620


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Indian Agent Kubhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Chabahar Port

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

"India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".  US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel

Chuck Hagel should know what he's talking about when it comes to intelligence. He served on the US Senate Intelligence Committee before he became the Pentagon chief.

How does India "finance problems" in Pakistan? Here are some of the ways it does so:

1. India's intelligence agency RAW uses its long and deep ties with the Afghan Intelligence KhAD (Khadamat-e Aetela'at-e Dawlati, also known as the National Directorate) staffed by openly anti-Pakistan agents who are known to support the Pakistani Taliban (TTP).  There are reports that the current TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah is being protected by KhAD agents in Afghanistan. Last year, US troops snatched former TTP chief Hakimullah Mehusd's deputy Latifullah Mesud  from Afghan intelligence agents. Apparently, Latifullah had been traveling back and forth across the Pak-Afghan border to coordinate attacks inPakistan with the Afghan agents.

2.  Before writing and promoting an anti-Pakistan book in India, American analyst and author Christine Fair said this in 2009: "Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity! Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan". Prominent Pakistani Baloch insurgents like Brahamdagh Bugti are also being sheltered by the Afghan security and intelligence establishment along with RAW.

3.  Another US analyst Laura Rozen explained India-Taliban nexus as follows: "While the U.S. media has frequently reported on Pakistani ties to jihadi elements launching attacks in Afghanistan, it has less often mentioned that India supports insurgent forces attacking Pakistan, the former (US) intelligence official said. "The Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan," the former (US) intelligence official who served in both countries said. "The same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there."

There are signs that India has stepped up its covert war against Pakistan since the election of the Hindu Nationalist government of Prime Minister Modi. The first sign is the appointment of an anti-Pakistan hawk Ajit Doval as Modi's National Security Advisor. As a key part of his long service to India's intelligence establishment, Doval says he served as an undercover RAW agent in Pakistan for seven years.

Given all the circumstantial evidence of Indian support of Baloch insurgents' and TTP's war against Pakistan,  the Pakistani security and intelligence establishment can not rely on counterinsurgency operations like ZarbeAzb alone to stop the civilian carnage on Pakistani streets and schools. The overall counterinsurgency strategy must include serious efforts to cut off support and funding for the TTP and the Baloch insurgents from both domestic and external sources, and disruption of the Indian intelligence network operating against Pakistan from Afghanistan. It will require superior intelligence and significant counter-intelligence operations, as well as an effective narrative and powerful diplomatic offensive to put pressure on India to stop its covert war being waged on Pakistani soil.

Here's a video discussion on the subject of terrorism in Pakistan:

http://vimeo.com/115381071


India's Role in Pakistan Terror; Pakistan's National Narrative: Quaid-e-Azam's Vision from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Here's US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel talking about "India financing problems in Pakistan":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNeKnMbAm8c

 


Here are video clips of Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval talking about his 7 years undercover for RAW in Pakistan:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2c33oq_i-lived-in-pakistan-for-7-years-as-spy-ajit-doval-ex-intelligence-officer-now-national-security-advi_news

 
I lived in Pakistan for 7 Years as Spy - Ajit... by zemtv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diQu_wPeIeI




Here's Ajit Kumar Doval explaining India's "defensive offense" strategy against Pakistan: ((Key statement toward the end: Pay the (Taliban) terrorists 1.5 times the funding they are getting to buy them out. They are mercenaries)

http://dai.ly/x2cq6ov



How to tackle Pakistan by Ajit Doval [India... by emran-caan

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Political and Military Policy Response to Peshawar Attack

Taliban or RAW-liban?

Counter-insurgencyOperation ZarbeAzb

India's Abiding Hostility Toward Pakistan 

India's Israel Envy: Will Modi Attack Pakistan?

Who Killed Karkare?

CFR's View of the Taliban

India's Covert War in Pakistan

India and Balochistan

Obama's New Regional Strategy

Webchat On Obama's New Regional Strategy

Obama's Afghan Exit Strategy

Kerry Challenges Modi with "Hard Evidence" of India's Covert War in Pakistan

US Secretary of State John Kerry did not openly acknowledge it in pubic but he took Modi to the woodshed with "hard evidence" of India's continuing support of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its chief Mullah Fazlullah currently sheltered in Afghanistan.  The US has since put Mullah Fazlullah on its most wanted terrorist list.

A report in Daily Mail News filed by Christina Palmer and Anjali Sharma quotes an unnamed inside source as saying: “The atmosphere in the room after Kerry and Modi had lunch together, changed when Premier Modi very blatantly stated that he and his government so shocked to hear about the Peshawar School Terror that the schools and both the houses of the Parliament observed moment of silence to mourn the Peshawar School Terror and thus there could be no Indian hand involved in it.” In response, the sources say, Americans "got furious and showed some hard evidences of Mulla Fazalulla and RAW nexus in Afghanistan to influx terror in Pakistan. The American side took the Indian side quite aggressively and also snubbed Modi over the highly objectionable role of his National Security Advisor Ajit Kumar Doval ".

The reports adds: "Modi and his team were grilled over the admissions of Ajit Doval of funding and utilizing TTP terrorists to destabilize Pakistan and Modi was asked to tame Doval and Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) both in this direction. Modi was told to end India’s patronization of Mulla Fazalulla in Afghanistan and it was made it clear to Modi and his team that the US was about to place Mulla Fazalulla on list of global terrorists and an Indian pampering of him would jeopardize the US-India relations and can also have its implications on the upcoming visit of the US President to India".

A post titled "Has Modi India Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?" posted on December 22, 2014 has been picked up  and widely covered by mainstream Pakistani media in the last few weeks. It's reproduced below for those who missed it:

"India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".  US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel

Chuck Hagel should know what he's talking about when it comes to intelligence. He served on the US Senate Intelligence Committee before he became the Pentagon chief.

How does India "finance problems" in Pakistan? Here are some of the ways it does so:

1. India's intelligence agency RAW uses its long and deep ties with the Afghan Intelligence KhAD (Khadamat-e Aetela'at-e Dawlati, also known as the National Directorate) staffed by openly anti-Pakistan agents who are known to support the Pakistani Taliban (TTP).  There are reports that the current TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah is being protected by KhAD agents in Afghanistan. Last year, US troops snatched former TTP chief Hakimullah Mehusd's deputy Latifullah Mesud  from Afghan intelligence agents. Apparently, Latifullah had been traveling back and forth across the Pak-Afghan border to coordinate attacks inPakistan with the Afghan agents.

2.  Before writing and promoting an anti-Pakistan book in India, American analyst and author Christine Fair said this in 2009: "Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity! Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan". Prominent Pakistani Baloch insurgents like Brahamdagh Bugti are also being sheltered by the Afghan security and intelligence establishment along with RAW.

3.  Another US analyst Laura Rozen explained India-Taliban nexus as follows: "While the U.S. media has frequently reported on Pakistani ties to jihadi elements launching attacks in Afghanistan, it has less often mentioned that India supports insurgent forces attacking Pakistan, the former (US) intelligence official said. "The Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan," the former (US) intelligence official who served in both countries said. "The same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there."

There are signs that India has stepped up its covert war against Pakistan since the election of the Hindu Nationalist government of Prime Minister Modi. The first sign is the appointment of an anti-Pakistan hawk Ajit Doval as Modi's National Security Advisor. As a key part of his long service to India's intelligence establishment, Doval says he served as an undercover RAW agent in Pakistan for seven years.

Given all the circumstantial evidence of Indian support of Baloch insurgents' and TTP's war against Pakistan,  the Pakistani security and intelligence establishment can not rely on counterinsurgency operations like ZarbeAzb alone to stop the civilian carnage on Pakistani streets and schools. The overall counterinsurgency strategy must include serious efforts to cut off support and funding for the TTP and the Baloch insurgents from both domestic and external sources, and disruption of the Indian intelligence network operating against Pakistan from Afghanistan. It will require superior intelligence and significant counter-intelligence operations, as well as an effective narrative and powerful diplomatic offensive to put pressure on India to stop its covert war being waged on Pakistani soil.

Here are a couple of video discussion on the subject of terrorism:

http://vimeo.com/117028741


Paris Massacre; Kerry-Modi Meeting; TTP's Fazlullah on US Terror List; Anti-Imran Protest from WBT TV on Vimeo.


http://vimeo.com/115381071


India's Role in Pakistan Terror; Pakistan's National Narrative: Quaid-e-Azam's Vision from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Here's US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel talking about "India financing problems in Pakistan":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNeKnMbAm8c

 


Here are video clips of Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval talking about his 7 years undercover for RAW in Pakistan:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2c33oq_i-lived-in-pakistan-for-7-years-as-spy-ajit-doval-ex-intelligence-officer-now-national-security-advi_news

 
I lived in Pakistan for 7 Years as Spy - Ajit... by zemtv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diQu_wPeIeI




Here's Ajit Kumar Doval explaining India's "defensive offense" strategy against Pakistan: ((Key statement toward the end: Pay the (Taliban) terrorists 1.5 times the funding they are getting to buy them out. They are mercenaries)

http://dai.ly/x2cq6ov



How to tackle Pakistan by Ajit Doval [India... by emran-caan

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Political and Military Policy Response to Peshawar Attack

Taliban or RAW-liban?

Counter-insurgencyOperation ZarbeAzb

India's Abiding Hostility Toward Pakistan 

India's Israel Envy: Will Modi Attack Pakistan?

Who Killed Karkare?

CFR's View of the Taliban

India's Covert War in Pakistan

India and Balochistan

Obama's New Regional Strategy

Webchat On Obama's New Regional Strategy

Obama's Afghan Exit Strategy

Christine Fair's Anti-Pakistan Rants: Unfair? Unhinged?

Carol Christine Fair is an associate professor at the Center for Peace and Security Studies (CPASS), part of Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. She has only recently wised up to the opportunity to profit from sale of books attacking Pakistan in India, the world's third largest and currently the fastest growing market for books written in the English language.

Fair on India's Secret War in Pakistan:

Before writing and promoting "Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War", a virulently anti-Pakistan book, Dr. Fair said this in 2009:

"Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity! Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan".

Former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has essentially confirmed Fair's above statement when he said: "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".

On what basis did Chuck Hagel make the statement about India's use of Afghan territory to attack Pakistan? Was he, too, just another victim of conspiracy theories? Off course not. Secretary Hagel had the benefit of intelligence briefings by the CIA given to him in multiple capacities: first as US Senate Intelligence committee member and then as US Defense Secretary.

Fair is Self-Proclaimed "Rambo B**ch":

In recent years, Christine Fair has become a strong advocate of continuing the disastrous neoconservative policies that found favor in former President George W. Bush's administration after 911 terrorist attacks.

Fair has  called herself a "Rambo B**ch"; she supports US military interventions around the world; she encourages India's hawkish Hindu Nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi to invade Pakistan.

In a Facebook post, Fair called Pakistan “an enemy” and said “We invaded the wrong dog-damned country,” implying the U.S. should have invaded Pakistan, not Afghanistan, according to Salon magazine.

In another Facebook post, Fair insisted that “India needs to woman up and SQUASH Pakistan militarily, diplomatically, politically and economically.” Both India and Pakistan are nuclear states.

Fair Supports US Drone Killings:

Fair strongly supports the US drone killing program that has been questioned even by senior US military commanders who have served in Afghanistan. One such commander is General Michael Flynn who has now been picked by President-elect Donald Trump as his national security advisor.

“When you drop a bomb from a drone… you are going to cause more damage than you are going to cause good,” remarked Michael T. Flynn. The retired Army lieutenant general, who also served as the U.S. Central Command’s director of intelligence, says that “the more bombs we drop, that just… fuels the conflict.”

Summary:

C. Christine Fair's anti-Pakistan rants show that she is a warmonger masquerading as a serious scholar.  She calls herself a "Rambo B**ch".  She wants both US and India to invade Pakistan knowing that all three countries have nuclear weapons. She strongly supports US drone killings which, in the words of General Michael Flynn, "fuel the conflict".

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Modi's Covert War in Pakistan

India is World's Fastest Growing Book Market

Are Iran and Russia Supporting Taliban in Afghanistan?

Gen Petraeus Debunks Allegations of Duplicity Against Pakistan

Gall-Haqqani-Paul Narrative on Pakistan

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan

Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan

Quest For Afghan Stability: China and Pakistan Join Hands; India Excluded

"India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".  US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel

Chuck Hagel's rare candor endorses Pakistan's long-standing argument that India's use of Afghan territory to hurt Pakistan has been one of the main sources of instability in the region. Actions of the newly elected Afghan President Ashraf Ghani seem to indicate that he agrees with Pakistan's position.  Here are some of the indications of the change of heart in Kabul:

1.  Immediately after the recent Afghan presidential vote, President Ashraf Ghani chose Beijing and Islamabad as the first two capitals to visit. He has not yet visited New Delhi.

2. President Ashraf Ghani has accepted Pakistan's offer to train Afghan Army. The first Afghan cadets began arriving in Pakistan this month. Note that India too had offered to train Afghan soldiers.

3. An Afghan Taliban delegation was recently hosted in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials. The December trip to Beijing by the Afghan Taliban delegation was the second in recent months. And it came weeks after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani ’s visit to Beijing, his first official trip abroad, according to theWall Street Journal.

4. China is investing in the $3 billion Aynak copper mining project, the biggest single investment to date in Afghanistan. In Addition, China has announced plans to participate in building infrastructure projects like hydro-electric plants, railways and roads.

Further confirmation of the Afghan president's policy change can be seen in the official Afghan-Chinese-Pakistan trilateral talks in Kabul this week. On February 9, China’s assistant foreign minister, Liu Jianchao, joined his Afghan and Pakistani counterparts in Kabul for the first round of a new trilateral strategic dialogue. The dialogue, attended by Liu, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai provided a tantalizing glimpse of what trilateral cooperation between these neighbors could mean for Afghan stability, according to a report in The Diplomat.

It appears from  credible reports in Washington that the Afghan-China-Pakistan trilateral effort has US backing. President Barack Obama wants to see a stable Afghanistan after the US troop withdrawal. He does not want to see in Afghanistan a replay what has happened in Iraq where terror groups like ISIS have fill the vacuum left by the United States.

There are clear signs that the new Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has concluded that Pakistan is far more important as an Afghan partner for his nation's peace and prosperity than India or any other regional power. As the leader of a land-locked country heavily dependent on trade routes through Pakistan, Ghani knows the history of the border closures and transit trade interruptions that severely hurt the Afghan economy in 1950s and 1960s, and the US military supplies cut-off by Pakistan in 2011.

Though it may appear that New Delhi's exclusion from the Afghan-China-Pakistan trilateral effort to stabilize Afghanistan is a loss for India, the fact is that the Afghan stability is in the best long-term interest of the entire South Asia region. I hope the Indian leadership begins to recognizes this reality by stopping its efforts to undermine the trilateral initiative.


Aam Aadmi Party Sweep in Delhi; Afghan-Pakistan-China Trilateral Initiative from WBT TV on Vimeo.

http://youtu.be/tUvbnNeXlnU




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Political and Military Policy Response to Peshawar Attack

Taliban or RAW-liban?

Counter-insurgencyOperation ZarbeAzb

India's Abiding Hostility Toward Pakistan 

India's Israel Envy: Will Modi Attack Pakistan?

Who Killed Karkare?

CFR's View of the Taliban

India's Covert War in Pakistan

India and Balochistan

Obama's New Regional Strategy

Webchat On Obama's New Regional Strategy

Obama's Afghan Exit Strategy

Steve Coll's "Directorate S" Demonizes Pakistan ISI

"Directorate S: The C. I. A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016" by Steve Coll holds Pakistan ISI's Directorate S primarily responsible for America's longest war.

The author does acknowledge other factors such as Washington's policy failures, Kabul government's corruption, divisions and dysfunction, Indian intelligence RAW's role, etc. However, he plays down the significance of these other factors and pins the blame squarely on Pakistan ISI, particularly its Directorate S which the author describes as one of the ISI directorates "devoted to secret operations in support of the Taliban, Kashmiri guerrillas, and other violent Islamic radicals".  The book sticks essentially to America's oft-repeated narrative of blaming Pakistan for US failure to win the war after 16 years of fighting.

Vital American Interests in Afghanistan:

Coll narrates top-level discussions during the successive administrations of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama identified America's objectives/vital interests in the region are as follows:

1. Destroy Al Qaeda in the region

2.  Ensure Pakistan's stability to keep nukes out of the hands of terrorists

Notably absent from these goals is the defeat/destruction of the Taliban.

While there was considerable success in achieving the first objective, the actions taken to achieve that success induced instability in Pakistan. It gave rise to Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which launched deadly attacks on the Pakistani state that killed tens of thousands of civilians and security personnel.

Efforts by the United States to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban went nowhere, partly due to strong opposition to such talks by Tajik faction of the Afghan government.

India-Pakistan Great Game in Afghanistan:

Author Steve Coll quotes Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, President Barack Obama's representative for the region, as explaining how critical India-Pakistan relationship is to solving Afghanistan. Holbrooke said, "There are three countries here--Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India--with vastly different stages of political, social, and economic development. They share a common strategic space. As has happened so many times in history, the weak state is the one that sucks in the others. That's the history of Afghanistan and now the Great Game is being played with different players. The India-Pakistan relationship is an absolutely critical driver".

India's Covert War Against Pakistan:

Coll acknowledges Indian intelligence agency RAW's role in Afghanistan saying that "it was not as if R.A.W. had dropped out of covert actions specifically designed to undermine Pakistani stability"..... efforts that run counter to America's vital interest/goal number 2 in the region.

However, the author underplays its importance. He fails to take notice of the mounting evidence that even some Indian analysts and media find hard to ignore. Here are some instances:

1. Bharat Karnad, a professor of national security studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, recently acknowledged India's use of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group against Pakistan in an Op Ed he wrote for Hindustan Times.

2. Indian journalist Praveen Swami said in a piece published in "Frontline": "Since 2013, India has secretly built up a covert action program against Pakistan."

3. India's former RAW officers, including one ex chief, have blamed Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested by Pakistan in 2016, for getting caught in Pakistan as a "result of unprofessionalism", according to a report in India's "The Quint" owned and operated by a joint venture of Bloomberg News and Quintillion Media. The report that appeared briefly on The Quint website has since been removed, apparently under pressure from the Indian government.

4. A story by Indian journalist Karan Thapar pointed out several flaws in the Indian narrative claiming that Kulbhushan Jadhav, arrested in Pakistan while engaging in India's covert war in Balochistan, was an innocent Indian businessman kidnapped from Chabahar by Pakistani agents. Writing for the Indian Express, Thapar debunked the entire official story from New Delhi.

Former US Defense Secretary Hagel:

Indian journalist claims that India's covert war against Pakistan started in 2013. However,  former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said back in 2011 that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan". Secretary Hagel was speaking at Cameron University in Oklahoma.

General David Petraeus's View: 

General David Petraeus, former CIA director and commander of US troops in Afghanistan, has said there is no evidence of Pakistan playing a double game and supporting terrorists in Afghanistan.

Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London in 2016, he said  "I looked very very hard then (as US commander in Afghanistan) and again as CIA director at the nature of the relationship between the various (militant) groups in FATA and Baluchistan and the Pakistan Army and the ISI and I was never convinced of what certain journalists have alleged (about ISI support of militant groups in FATA).... I have talked to them (journalists) asked them what their sources are and I have not been able to come to grips with that based on what I know from these different positions (as US commander and CIA director)".

Gen Petraeus did acknowledge that "there's communication between the ISI and various militant groups in FATA and Balochistan (Haqqanis, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc) but some of it you'd do anyway as an intelligence service." He added that "there may be some degree of accommodation that is forced on them (Pakistanis) because of the limits of their (Pakistan's) forces."

Former CIA Officer Michael Scheuer's View of ISI:

To put unrelenting western and India media and analysts' attacks on the ISI in perspective, let's read some excerpts from an interview of  ex CIA officer and chief Bin Laden hunter Michael Scheuer on ISI, and watch the following video:

1. ISI is like all other intelligence services--like the Australian service or the American service.

2. ISI works for the interest of their country, not to help other countries.

3. The idea that ISI is a rogue organization is very popular--and even the Pakistanis promote it---but having worked with ISI for the better part of 20 years, I know the ISI is very disciplined and very able intelligence agency.

4. Pakistanis can not leave the area (AfPak) when we (Americans) do. They have to try and stabilize Afghanistan with a favorable Islamic government so they can move their 100,000 troops from their western border to the eastern border with India which---whether we like it or not, they see as a bigger threat.

5. We (US) have created the mess in South Asia and the Pakistanis have to sort it out. Our (US) problems in Afghanistan are of our own making.

6. Al Qaeda has grown from just one platform (Afghanistan in 2001) to six platforms now.

Summary:

"Directorate S: The C. I. A. and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016" by Steve Coll holds Pakistan ISI's Directorate S primarily responsible for America's longest war. The author does acknowledge other factors such as Washington's policy failures, Kabul government's corruption, divisions and dysfunction, Indian intelligence RAW's role, etc. However, he plays down the significance of these other factors and pins the blame squarely on Pakistan ISI, particularly its Directorate S. Coll downplays all evidence pointing to India's covert war being waged against Pakistan from the Afghan soil. It is this war that is destabilizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ignoring it will delay any resolution to the Afghan problem.

Here's a video of ex CIA Officer Michael Scheuer talking about ISI:

https://youtu.be/-ncg9ks-MQE


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

General Petraeus Debunks Allegations of Duplicity Against Pakistan

India's Ex Intelligence Officers Blame Kulbhushan Jadhav For Getting Caught

Karan Thapar Dismantles Official Indian Narrative on Kulbhushan Jadhav

Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan? 

Indian Agent Kubhushan Yadav's Confession

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Khwaja Asif Defends Pakistan Policy at USIP in Washington D.C.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khwaja Mohammad Asif was a featured speaker at an event organized by Washington-based think tank USIP (United States Institute of Peace) where he was interviewed by Dr. Moeed Yusuf. The topics of discussion ranged from US-Pakistani relations and President Donald Trump's new Afghan policy to Pakistan's ties with Afghanistan and India.

Foreign Minister Asif with Dr. Moeed Yusuf at USIP in Washington

Here are some of the key Points made by Mr. Asif at this event held in Washington D.C. on Oct 5, 2017:

1. US funded, armed and trained militants to fight the Soviets in 1980s as part of the Cold War, then walked away without helping to rehabilitate them and left it to Pakistan to deal with them.

2. Pakistan does want to deal with these militants who are a liability for the country. Pakistan is working on finding the best way to do it.

3. US domestic politics prevents action on gun violence but Washington expects Pakistan to demolish all militant groups overnight.

4. India has 66 banned armed groups engaged in insurgency all over India. Only 4 linked to Pakistan.

5. Indian government's data shows over 36,000 infiltration attempts in India occupied Kashmir in 2001 and only 30 this year.

6. Ex US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has said that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".

7. Gen Petraeus said at a RUSI presentation in 2016 that while he served as Centcom commander and then CIA chief, he saw no convincing evidence of Pakistan's support for Haqqanis.

8. Pakistan rejects US Defense Secretary Mattis' statement about working with Pakistan "one more time". Such talk is offensive to Pakistan and not conducive to cooperation with US.

9. The US has already lost the war in Afghanistan and now trying to salvage what it can from it. Further mistakes by US could force the Taliban and ISIS to get together and create a much bigger threat for Pakistan, the region and the West.

10. Indian Air Force Chief has threatened to carry out "surgical strikes" against Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. If that were to happen, don't expect any restraint from Pakistan.

Here's a video of the US Institute of Peace event featuring Khwaja Asif:

https://youtu.be/OsGy4NDEXMg




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Trump's Afghan Strategy

Who are the Haqqanis?

US Gun Violence, Islamophobia and Terrorism

700,000 Indian Troops vs 10 Millon Kashmiris

Secretary Hagel on India Using Afghanistan Against Pakistan

Gen Petraeus Says No Evidence of Pakistani Support For Haqqanis

Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?

Are Russia and Iran Supporting the Afghan Taliban? 

What if Modi Attacks Pakistan?

Kautilya's Doctrine Dominates India's Pakistan Policy

Why is India Sponsoring Terrorism in Pakistan?

There is substantial direct and indirect evidence now emerging that shows India is a state sponsor of terrorism in Pakistan.

On the one hand, the Modi government is funding the Teheek--e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Baloch insurgent groups, MQM militants and other groups to terrorize Pakistanis. On the other hand, it is accusing Pakistani government of sponsoring terror in Kashmir and demanding action against Kashmiri support groups headed by Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar. It appears that the "Doval Doctrine", named after India's hawkish national security advisor Ajit Doval,  is designed to stretch Pakistan Army so thin that it finally collapses and paves the way for India to dominate Pakistan.

Indian Prime Minister Modi with NSA Ajit Doval

Evidence of Indian Sponsorship of Terror: 

Here are some of the pieces of the evidence of India's support for terror in Pakistan:

1. A 2015 London police document  revealed as follows:

“Large amounts of cash have been seized from premises associated with the MQM and a significant amount of assets have been identified in the United Kingdom. All of the cash and assets are believed to represent funds provided to MQM by the Indian government or other unlawful activity."
 The document said that "both Mr. (Tariq) Mir and Mr. (Mohammad) Anwar (close aides of MQM leader Altaf Hussain) stated that MQM was receiving funding from Indian government".

MQM leader Altaf Hussain has been using militants in Karachi, the economic hub of Pakistan, to launch attacks and destabilize the country.

2. Kulbhushan Yadav, a serving Indian Navy Commander, was arrested in Pakistan's Balochistan province in 2016. Yadav said his purpose was to remain in direct contact with Baloch insurgents and carry out "activities with their collaboration".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now openly supporting Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. The Indian support for Baloch insurgents' terrorism in Pakistan is no longer a secret.

3. Ex US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has confirmed based on US intelligence reports that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".   

4. Since 2013, India's current National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has been talking about "Pakistan's vulnerabilities" to terrorism and India's ability to take advantage of it.  Here are excerpts of his speech at Sastra University:

"How do you tackle Pakistan?.....We start working on Pakistan's vulnerabilities-- economic, internal security, political, isolating them internationally, it can be anything..... it can be defeating Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan...... You stop the terrorists by denying them weapons, funds and manpower. Deny them funds by countering with one-and-a-half times more funding. If they have 1200 crores give them 1800 crores and they are on our side...who are the Taliban fighting for? It's because they haven't got jobs or someone has misled them. The Taliban are mercenaries. So go for more of the covert thing (against Pakistan)..." Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor

5. India's intelligence agency RAW has a long history of sponsoring terror in Pakistan. Ex Indian spy R.K. Yadav has documented some of RAW's past successes in Pakistan stretching back to 1960s.

India's Pakistan Obsession:

Why is India's Hindu leadership so paranoid about Pakistan and Pakistanis?   Let us examine the source of India's Pakistan phobia by looking at various statements made by analysts, strategists and Hindu leaders across the political spectrum.

Hindu RSS leader M.S. Golwalkar described as "worthy of worship" by current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi: 

"Ever since that evil day, when Moslems first landed in Hindustan, right up to the present moment, the Hindu Nation has been gallantly fighting on to take on these despoilers. The Race Spirit has been awakening.”

Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's Defense Minister Krishna Menon:

"In Pakistan's view the Partition is only the beginning. Her idea is to get a jumping-off ground to take the whole of India.....it was from the Mughals that the British took over (India). Now the British having gone, they (Muslims) must come back (to rule all of India)"

India's ex National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary J.N. Dixit:

"The reason Britain partitioned India was to fragment Hindu areas into political entities and ensure Pakistan's emergence as the largest and most cohesive political power in the subcontinent. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to fragment India. Pakistani invasion of Kashmir in 1948 and subsequent wars are part of this continuous exercise. The Kargil war and the proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir are the latest example of this pressure. India has not been decisive and surgical in resisting Pakistani subversion. India has voluntarily given concessions to Pakistan despite defeating it in all major conflicts. Pakistan's long term objective is to ensure that India does not emerge as the most influential power in the South Asian region. The Pakistani power structure has a powerful antagonism toward Hindu-majority civil society in India. Pakistan has sought the support of a large number of Muslim countries and Asian and Western powers (China and the US) to keep India on the defensive. Pakistan's continued questioning of Indian secularism, democracy and constitutional institutions is a deliberate attempt to generate friction within India. Pakistani support of the secessionist and insurgent forces in Jammu and Kashmir, in Punjab and in the north-eastern states of India confirms this impression."

Modi's Objectives:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is attempting to achieve the following:

1. Deflect world attention from Indian Army atrocities in Kashmir.

2.  Cover up India's proxy war of terror in Pakistan.

3. Isolate Pakistan internationally.

4. Sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

5. Bleed Pakistan by a thousand cuts to weaken it to the point where India can easily dominate the entire region.

Summary:

Indian Prime Minister Modi and his national security advisor and right-hand man Ajit Doval are sposoring terrorism in Pakistan while blaming Pakistan of terror to cover their tracks.  It's important for Pakistanis to not only understand what India is doing but also make a serious effort to make the world aware of it.

Here's a short 3-minute video capturing the essence of the post:

https://youtu.be/Yb6aNq11zhc

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?

MQM-RAW Link

India's Pakistan Obsession

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

RK Yadav's Mission RAW

Planted Stories in Indian Media

Doval Doctrine

India's Israel Envy

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Kulbhushan Yadav: Can ISPR Compete Against India's Spin Machine?

The recent release of a 6-minute video confession of Indian intelligence officer arrested by Pakistan has been met by a furious disinformation campaign by the Indian government and Indian media. Their aim is to obfuscate the damning confession and discredit ISPR's fact-based claims. What ISPR and Pakistan government need to understand is that having facts on your side is not sufficient to make your case; it requires the use of all modern PR techniques to have any chance of success in influencing world opinion, particularly western opinion, in your favor.

So What Can Pakistan Do? 

I think the ISPR is in way over its head in this effort to persuade the world to believe Pakistan's case in the face of the well-honed Indian spin machine. Pakistan needs serious professionals for this job, the kind of professionals who have experience in orchestrating a campaign that includes news stories, TV analysts' commentaries, newspaper columns and magazine Op-Eds, think tank reports and speeches by the pro-Pakistan Caucus in the US Congress.

India's Spin Machine:

The Indian spin machine was recently in full gear when it tried unsuccessfully to stop the sale by the United States government of just 8 F-16s to Pakistan. The campaign orchestrated by the Indian government included placement of favorable news stories, TV analysts' commentaries, newspaper columns and magazine Op-Eds (including one by Husain Haqqani), think tank reports and speeches by the members of the India Caucus in the US Congress.  They all blatantly toed the Indian line that these 8 F-16s would be used against India, not in Pakistan's ongoing counter-insurgency operations. The biased nature of all of these efforts can be gauged by the following facts that were completely ignored by them:

1. There is a huge imbalance in the conventional defense capabilities between India and Pakistan as laid out by GlobalFirePower.com. It ranks India at number 4 in the world while Pakistan is way down at number 17 in 2016.

2. India is world's largest importer of sophisticated weapons, including fighter aircraft, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Here's what it says about the import of weapons between 2011 and 2015: India (14 per cent of global arms imports), China (4.7 per cent), Australia (3.6 per cent), Pakistan (3.3 per cent), Viet Nam (2.9 per cent) and South Korea (2.6 per cent).

3. Pakistan, like the United States elsewhere, has been using F-16s in Operation Zarb e Azb against militants hiding out in Pakistan tribal belt along the border with Afghanistan.

I did not see a single piece in the US media supporting Pakistani position in this battle.  It was completely one-sided. They succeeded in forcing a US Senate vote to block the sale. Luckily for Pakistan, Obama administration barely succeeded in overcoming this Indian campaign to do something as trivial as selling just a few F-16s to Pakistan this time.

Kulbushan Yadav Arrest:

The facts about India's sponsorship of terror in Pakistan clearly favor ISPR.  The confession video shows a very relaxed Kulbhushan, caught on Pakistani territory using a false Muslim identity as Husain Mubarak Patel, talking to the interrogators and revealing details of his work. He appears to be under no stress. However, I do not think that facts alone can help. Why?

The Obama administration and the western governments and analysts already know what India has been doing to hurt Pakistan.   Ex US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has confirmed based on US intelligence reports that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".   

Back in 2009, after visiting Indian consulates in Zahedan, Jalalabad and Kandahar,  the pro-Indian analyst Christine Fair acknowledged that "they are not issuing visas as the main activity!" She futher said: "Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan". 

Kulbhushan Yadav's arrest is further confirmation of the fact that India is using development projects such as Chahbahar Port Project in Iran and various infrastructure projects in Afghanistan as cover for Indian intelligence agencies to sponsor terror in Pakistan. 

Successful PR Campaign:

Pakistan needs to learn from prior successful PR campaigns used by other countries. For example,  Pakistani government needs to look at the Kuwaiti government funded effort that involved as many as 20 PR, law and lobby firms in its campaign to mobilize US opinion to use force against Saddam Hussein in the 1991 Gulf War. Hill & Knowlton, then the world's largest PR firm, served as the mastermind for the Kuwaiti campaign. Its activities alone would have constituted the largest foreign-funded campaign ever aimed at manipulating American public opinion at the time.

Summary:

Pakistan can take heart from the fact that India's spin machine does not always succeed. However, it still needs to employ modern PR techniques to match India's to make the case that it is a victim of terror sponsored, at least in part, by India's intelligence agency.  The end goal needs to be to show the world that there is a proxy war being waged in Pakistan. This war needs to end to begin serious diplomacy to bring peace to South Asia.

Let me quote US analyst Stephen Cohen to conclude this: "The alphabet agencies—ISI, RAW, and so forth—are often the chosen instrument of state policy when there is a conventional (and now a nuclear) balance of power, and the diplomatic route seems barren."


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan Releases Confessional Video of India Agent 

Has Modi Stepped Up India's Covert War in Pakistan?

Ex India Spy Documents Successful RAW Ops in Pakistan

London Police Document Confirms MQM-RAW Connection Testimony

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Ajit Doval Lecture on "How to Tackle Pakistan" 

Trump's Afghan Strategy: Will Pakistan Yield to US Pressure?

Announcing the new US strategy on Afghanistan this week, President Donald Trump singled out "valued partner" Pakistan for increased American pressure to act against "agents of chaos" such as the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network who attack American service members and officials. Trump said this "will have to change, and that will change immediately." He also sought India's help in Afghanistan while ignoring the increased Iranian and Russian involvement in helping the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan's Response to US Pressure:

Will Trump's pressure on Pakistan work? Will Pakistanis do the bidding of the new US administration? To answer this question, let us look at the following two quotes:

1.  "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West."  Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Pakistan is much less reliant on US assistance now than it was when the above statements were made. If anything, the Trump administration has less leverage with Pakistan today than its predecessors did back in 1990s and 2000s.

Iran and Russia in Afghanistan:

While Trump is singling out Pakistan as the main culprit for US failures in Afghanistan, the ground reality has substantially changed with the emergence of ISIS and increased Iranian and Russian involvement in helping the Afghan Taliban. Both see the Afghan Taliban as allies in fighting their common enemy ISIS in Afghanistan.

Russia's Ambassador at large for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov has described the Afghan Taliban as a “predominantly a national military-political movement”. “It is local, Afghanistan-based. They believe that they should have, from their perspective, fair share in the government of Afghanistan…They should talk and deal in their local context”. But Daesh (ISIS) “as an international organization is really dangerous”. “If you recall, young Taliban under the influence of Al-Qaeda in 1994, their rhetoric was very similar to today’s Daesh rhetoric”.

Mr. Kabulov's comments reveal the following conclusions that underpin the Russian policy shift in South Asia region:

1. Moscow now believes that the presence of ISIS (Daesh) in Afghanistan is a much bigger threat to  Russia's soft underbelly in the former Soviet republics of  Central Asia.

2.  The Afghan Taliban are an effective force to check the growth and spread of ISIS in Central and South Asian nations.

3.  Pakistan's cooperation is critical to help defeat ISIS in the region.

India's Proxy War Against Pakistan:

President Trump's Afghan strategy of partnering with India will further alienate Pakistan and make its cooperation with US less likely. Why?  Because Pakistan believes that India is using Afghanistan to attack Pakistan, an allegation confirmed as fact by former US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel who said in 2011 that "India has always used Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. India has over the years been financing problems in Pakistan".

Pakistan's fears about India waging proxy war in Pakistan via Afghanistan are further reinforced by a 2013 speech by India's current National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in which he talked about about "Pakistan's vulnerabilities" to terrorism and India's ability to take advantage of it.  Here are some excerpts of his speech at Sastra University:

"How do you tackle Pakistan?.....We start working on Pakistan's vulnerabilities-- economic, internal security, political, isolating them internationally, it can be anything..... it can be defeating Pakistan's policies in Afghanistan...... You stop the terrorists by denying them weapons, funds and manpower. Deny them funds by countering with one-and-a-half times more funding. If they have 1200 crores give them 1800 crores and they are on our side...who are the Taliban fighting for? It's because they haven't got jobs or someone has misled them. The Taliban are mercenaries. So go for more of the covert thing (against Pakistan)..." Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor

Pakistan's Support of the Afghan Taliban:

General David Petraeus, former CIA director and commander of US troops in Afghanistan, has said there is no evidence of Pakistan playing a double game and supporting terrorists in Afghanistan. He was answering a question posed to him at a presentation at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British security think tank based in London.

Here's part of Gen Petraeus' response: "I looked very very hard then (as US commander in Afghanistan) and again as CIA director at the nature of the relationship between the various (militant) groups in FATA and Baluchistan and the Pakistan Army and the ISI and I was never convinced of what certain journalists have alleged (about ISI support of militant groups in FATA).... I have talked to them (journalists) asked them what their sources are and I have not been able to come to grips with that based on what I know from these different positions (as US commander and CIA director)".

Gen Petraeus did acknowledge that "there's communication between the ISI and various militant groups in FATA and Balochistan (Haqqanis, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc) but some of it you'd do anyway as an intelligence service." He added that "there may be some degree of accommodation that is forced on them (Pakistanis) because of the limits of their (Pakistan's) forces."

The Way Forward:

A hasty US exit from Afghanistan is not imminent. The United States needs Pakistan to help stabilize Afghanistan. But how can this be achieved? Can increased US pressure on Pakistan elicit cooperation? Can US partnership with India do the trick? In my view, neither will work. What will work is an understanding of Pakistan's legitimate concerns in Afghanistan.

What are Pakistan's legitimate interests in Afghanistan? The answer is: Pakistan's national security interest in stopping the use of the Afghan territory to launch attacks against it. Any solution to the Afghan problem has to include firm guarantees that India or any other country will be denied the use of Afghan territory and various militant groups to destabilize Pakistan.

The US must understand there can be no stability in Afghanistan if Pakistan feels insecure. The US also needs to acknowledge that an unstable nuclear-armed Pakistan will pose a far bigger threat than any threat emanating from Afghanistan.

Summary:

Trump's new Afghan strategy of increasing troop levels and ratcheting up the pressure on Pakistan will not work as long as Pakistan sees its vital national security interests threatened by India's proxy war being waged against it from the Afghan soil. Any solution to the Afghan problem must be regional. It has to include firm guarantees that India or any other country will be denied the use of Afghan territory to destabilize Pakistan.  The US must understand there can be no stability in Afghanistan if Pakistan feels insecure. The US also needs to acknowledge that an unstable nuclear-armed Pakistan will pose a far bigger threat than any threat emanating from Afghanistan.

Here's Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discussing this subject with special guest United We Reach Chairperson Sabahat Rafiq and regular panelist Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PAU-88asQU&t=339s



Related Links:

Haq's Musings

What is the Haqqani Network?

Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?

Mullah Mansoor Akhtar Killing in US Drone Strike

Gen Petraeus Debunks Charges of Pakistani Duplicity

Husain Haqqani vs Riaz Haq on India vs Pakistan

Impact of Trump's Top Picks on Pakistan

Husain Haqqani Advising Trump on Pakistan Policy?

Gall-Haqqani-Paul Narrative on Pakistan

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan

Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan