Tide Turning Against TTP Militants in Pakistan

Even as US-Pakistan relations are sinking to new lows, there are tentative signs that Pakistan's fight against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is beginning to succeed. Here are some of the facts that reinforce this assessment:

1. There have been no major terrorist attacks in Pakistan since the the Mehran Naval Base siege in Karachi in May, 2011.

2. Some 1,022 civilians have died in bomb attacks in 2011 so far, according to a report in Christian Science Monitor. Barring a late-year surge, this represents the lowest figure in four years, according to monitoring conducted by the New Delhi-based South Asia Terrorism Portal. This is significantly lower than 1,547 in 2010, and 1,688 in 2009.

3. The TTP has been battered by Pakistani military operations and U.S. drone strikes. It is splintered into more than 100 smaller factions, significantly weakened and running short of cash, according to security officials, analysts and tribesmen from the insurgent who spoke to the reporters of the Associated Press (AP).



In addition to the divide and conquer policy of the Pakistan Army against the Taliban in FATA, at least part of the double digit drop in terror casualties for two years in a row is attributed to improvements in policing, including removal of soft targets, said Rifaat Hussain, a security analyst at the Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad who spoke with The Christian Science Monitor: "They [now] have genuine difficulty carrying out spectacular attacks."

The anti-terror police are now equipped with heavy weaponry including mortars, grenade launchers. Some 2,000 policemen are now deployed at more than 42 checkpoints on the outskirts of Peshawar, says Mr. Toru, the former inspector general, and arming citizens to create a community police force that can act as authorities' eyes and ears.

The police are using the help of experts like Fulbright scholar and computer expert Zeeshan Usmani who has developed software models and simulation techniques to analyze and investigate terrorist bombings. Emergency medical response is also improving with knowledge and experience gained by ambulance service operators like Edhi Foundation and various hospital emergency rooms in major cities. An example is a Yale trained Emergency Medicine specialist Dr. Junaid Razzak who has set up an Emergency Medicine program in Karachi to train physicians in handling accident and terror victim injuries.

Though Pakistanis have been paying a very heavy price in terms of mass casualties, it now appears that they have learned to deal with the menace more effectively, and have finally begun to turn the tide against the TTP insurgency in Pakistan. It won't be easy to end it, but there is light now visible at the end of of the long dark tunnel.

Related Links:

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Fulbright Scholar Helping Police Fight Terror

Emergency Medicine in Pakistan

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US Military Undermining Interests in "AfPak"

Veena Malik Challenges Pakistan's Orthdoxy

Pakistani actress Veena Malik (Urdu: ويتا ملک, born Zahida Malik), who raised eyebrows last year for her provocative on-screen behavior in a reality show, is in the midst of yet another controversy after posing in the nude for the December 2011 cover of the Indian edition of international For Him men's Magazine(FHM). The ISI tattoo on Veena's arm and the hand grenade in her hand whose pin she is shown biting on in the picture add to the provocative nature of the cover. This latest "outrage" raises the following questions: Is Veena motivated by her desire for publicity and money? Is Veena leading a new form of protest against Pakistan's religious, political and social orthodoxy?



Challenge to Religious Orthodoxy:

Malik is part of a new emerging crop of Pakistanis which, in small but significant ways, has challenged the religious orthodoxy. She, and others like her, present a sharp contrast to the rising wave of Islamic radicalism that the U.S. and the Pakistani secular-liberal elite view as an existential threat to the country. And with many well-traveled Pakistanis importing ideas from abroad, they are contributing to Pakistan's 21st-century search for itself.

Media Revolution:

In addition to increased international travel, Pakistan's media and telecom revolution that began during the Musharaf years is contributing to changing society. There are multiple, competing TV channels catering to almost every niche, whim and taste---from news, sports, comedy and talk shows to channels dedicated to cooking, fashion, fitness, music, business, religion, local languages and cultures etc. It seems that this media revolution has had a profound influence on how many young people talk, dress and behave, emulating the outspoken media personalities, actors, preachers, singers, sportsmen, celebrities and fashion models. In addition to a smorgasbord of TV channels born out of a surge in advertising spending, there are many newspapers and tabloids, and serious and glossy magazines, and many FM radio stations providing local news, sports, weather and traffic updates.

Protest Culture:

Enabled by Pakistan's youthful population's embrace of the new media, the hit videos Aalu Anday and Paki Rambo are the latest examples in a long tradition of protest music, poetry and literature in the rich and diverse culture of Pakistan.



In recent years, Pakistan's protest culture has entered a new and exciting phase. The artists no longer feel stifled by the heavily censored state electronic media which dominated the national landscape for most of Pakistan's existence. In fact, the new talent does not rely even on the corporate-owned commercial media that have emerged and become powerful during the last decade of President Musharraf's rule. With the growth of Internet in Pakistan, the rapidly expanding online population is feeling more empowered than ever to engage in free expression as part of their political and social activism.

Social Transformation:

Regardless of Veena's personal motivations, it is clear that the FHM cover featuring her in the nude is an act of defiance by the publicity-seeking actress. Shocking as it may seem to many Pakistanis, it represents only the tip of the iceberg of big social changes coming to Pakistan. These changes will likely lead to greater polarization in the short to intermediate term. Eventually, however, I expect that Pakistanis will learn to tolerate diversity and emerge as a stronger and more unified nation.

Here's a Veena Malik Photo Shoot:



Veena Malik’s hot photoshoot for ‘Supermodel’ from Connect on Vimeo.

Here's a video clip of Veena Malik performing for India reality show Bigg Boss:



Related Links:

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Pak Entrepreneur Recycles Trash in to Energy & Fertilizer

Asif Farooqui is making millions of dollars by turning thousands of tons of waste in Lahore into liquefied petroleum products and fertilizer for farmlands.

Words like "clean" and "green" are not usually associated with the streets of major South Asian cities, but Farooqui's Waste Busters, a successful waste management business, is slowly changing the image of the Pakistani city of Lahore, according to an Aljazeera report.



The business started modestly a few years ago with just six donkey carts and a few workers to collect the trash and manually process it. Today, it has 200 garbage collection vehicles, several waste management plants and employs over 3000 people. Its plants separate garbage in to organics, plastics and metals to produce LPG products, fertilizer, and recyclables for reprocessing and reuse. And it is being done profitably.

An example of reprocessing and reuse is a Lahore-based company called Green Earth Recycling which turns shopping bags and other plastic scrap into beautiful green "plastic wood" furniture.

Other cities and communities in Pakistan are looking at the Lahore example and working on duplicating it. Waste Buster has already won contracts in communities in Karachi, Quetta, Rawalpindi, Peshawar and other cities.

Like it not, western style consumption patterns are happening in Pakistan, and these require western style professional management of the environment. With the rapid growth of urban middle class and its rising consumption of packaged products bringing fast proliferation of FMCG brands and big box retailers in Pakistan, it is becoming absolutely essential to deal effectively with the increasing amounts of trash being produced in big cities. Waste Busters sets a good example of what needs to be done on a much bigger scale to keep Pakistan's cities clean, environmentally safe and livable.

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Creative Financing of Clean Energy Projects

Pak Lady Health Workers "Best in the World"!

“It’s one of the best community-based health systems in the world,” said Dr. Donald Thea, a Boston University researcher, talking about Pakistan's Lady Health Workers Program. Thea is one of the authors of a recent Lancet study on child pneumonia treatment in Pakistan. He talked with the New York Times about the study.

Published in British medical journal "The Lancet" this month, the study followed 1,857 children who were treated at home with oral amoxicillin for five days and 1,354 children in a control group who were given standard care: one dose of oral cotrimoxazole and instructions to go to the nearest hospital or clinic. The home-treated group had only a 9 percent treatment-failure rate, while the control group children failed to improve 18 percent of the time.



Launched in 1994 by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's government, Pakistan’s Lady Health Workers’ program has trained over 100,000 women to provide community health services in rural areas. The program website introduces it as follows: "This country wide initiative with community participation constitutes the main thrust of the extension of outreach health services to the rural population and urban slum communities through deployment of over 100,000 Lady Health Workers (LHWs) and covers more than 65% of the target population. The Programme contributes directly to MDG goals number 1, 4, 5 & 6 and indirectly to goal number 3 & 7. The National Programme for Family Planning and Primary Health Care is funded by the Government of Pakistan. International partners offer support in selected domains in the form of technical assistance, trainings or emergency relief."



A recent comprehensive review of the program found that as compared to communities not served by the LHWs, the served households were 11% more likely to use modern family planning methods, 13% were more likely to have had a tetanus toxoid vaccination, 15% more were likely to have received a medical check-up within 24 hours of a birth, and 15% more were likely to have immunized children below three years. The improvements in health indicators among the populations covered by the LHWs were not entirely attributable to the program alone; researchers noted that other positive changes such as economic growth, increased provision of health services and better education services helped to enhance the impact. While the program had managed to sustain its impact despite its large expansion, evaluators found that serious weaknesses in the provision of supplies, and equipment and referral services need to be urgently addressed.

The program is now a major employer of women in the non-agricultural formal sector in rural areas, and is being more than doubled in size if budget allocations can be sustained. If universal coverage is achieved, every community in the country will have at least one lady health worker, one working woman and potential leader, who could serve as a catalyst for positive change for women in her community. The health officials say that unlike the mid-1990s when it was difficult to recruit women because of the minimum 8th grade education requirement, now there are large numbers of women who meet the requirement lining up for interviews in spite of low stipend of just Rs. 7000 per month.

Private sector is also helping the LHW program. Mobile communications service provider Mobilink has recently partnered up with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Pakistan's Ministry of Health (MoH) and GSMA Development Fund in an innovative pilot project which offers low cost mobile handsets and shared access to voice (PCOs) to LHWs in remote parts of the country. Mobilink hopes to bridge the communication gap between the LHW and their ability to access emergency health care and to help the worker earn extra income through the Mobilink PCO (Public Call Office).



Due to economic downturn and security challenges in several conflict areas since 2008, Pakistan's chances of achieving its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 appear to be slim. However, significant timely expansion in the LHW program and making it more effective can still help Pakistan get close to its MDGs on important health indicators like the infant mortality rate (IMR) and the maternal mortality rate (MMR).

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India is Home to the World's Largest Population of Poor, Hungry and Illiterate People

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US Military Undermining Interests in "AfPak"

The recent killings of 24 Pakistani soldiers by US forces have confirmed yet again that the US military tactics continue to undermine the overall strategy that leaders of both countries share. Professor Vali Nasr, former advisor to US State Dept, put it best when he told the New York Times, “It’s a case of the tail wagging the dog. U.S. commanders on the ground are deciding U.S.-Pakistan policy.”



The public reaction in Pakistan has been predictably swift and strong, forcing the nation's pro-American leadership to close critical land supply routes through Pakistan to 150,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan. The next step will likely be a cut-off of the air-link over Pakistan airspace to US forces. On the diplomatic front, there could be tremendous damage to US efforts if the Pakistani government follows through on its threat to boycott the December 5 international conference on Afghanistan, at which 1,000 delegates from fifty countries are scheduled to convene in Germany to discuss plans to wind down the war.



In spite of the critical importance of relations with Pakistan, President Obama has been conspicuously silent, and the US politicians, including Senators John Kyl and Dick Durbin who spoke today, continue to treat this relationship carelessly by demanding "get tough" approach in the wake of the latest tragedy.

The US-Pakistan relations have been in a downward spiral since the passing of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, a seasoned diplomat who helped build and implement a unified policy among various US departments and agencies dealing with Pakistan. His replacement Mark Grossman lacks Holbrooke's heft and behaves more as a subservient bureaucrat than a powerful diplomat. Grossman has been totally ineffective. President Obama's lack of interest combined with Grossman's lack of initiative are jeopardizing the entire US agenda in the region.

This is not the time to talk about "getting tough" with Pakistan. It's time for US to show contrition and apologize to the Pakistanis to assuage their anger. Once the anger has subsided, it'll be necessary for US to re-assess and re-engage with Pakistan with a more effective common and clear policy to wind down the war in Afghanistan.

Related Links:

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Is US-Pakistan Military Confrontation Inevitable?

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Who Are the Haqqanis?

Military Mutiny in Pakistan?

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BlackBerry Transcripts Sealed Haqqani's Fate in Memogate

Ambassador Husain Haqqani has recently been forced to quit his post in Washington amidst allegations that he sought US help to rein in Pakistani military. This was done amidst fears of a coup against his boss in Islamabad last May in the aftermath of Osama Bin Laden's assassination in Abbotabad by US Navy Seals that was highly embarrassing for Pakistan's military brass.

The totality of evidence and data so far available in the public domain suggests that Haqqani did indeed invite American intervention in Pakistan's internal affairs. And given how close Haqqani and his wife have been to President Asif Ali Zardari, it is highly likely that this was done with Zardari's personal blessing. The revelations in Ijaz Mansoor's BlackBerry transcripts also make explicit reference to "the circumstances that led to May 1 (US raid in Abbottabad) and your (Haqqani's) role in all that".

Plausible Deniability:

Ambassador Haqqani has denied that he asked anyone to deliver the alleged letter on his or President Zardari's behalf. He has argued that if he, or President Zardari, wanted to deliver such a message to Admiral Mullen or anyone else in US government, it could have been done in person because of their close contacts in Washington.

I think Ambassador Haqqani is being disingenuous. It is inconceivable that a diplomat of his stature and posting has not heard of the use of back channels for "plausible deniability". According to a Wikipedia entry, "the term (plausible deniability) most often refers to the denial of blame in (formal or informal) chains of command, where upper rungs quarantine the blame to the lower rungs, and the lower rungs are often inaccessible, meaning confirming responsibility for the action is nearly impossible. In the case that illegal or otherwise disreputable and unpopular activities become public, high-ranking officials may deny any awareness of such act or any connection to the agents used to carry out such acts".

In this particular instance, the backchannel for "plausible deniability" was established through a Pakistani-American businessman Ijaz Mansoor and former US National Security Advisor James Jones.



BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) Transcripts:

It appears from publicly available information that there was a falling out between Haqqani and Mansoor. Incensed by Haqqani's disparaging public remarks about him, Mansoor went public with a Financial Times article that included the details of the memo, and later also released the transcripts of the BlackBerry chats he had with Haqqani as part of the entire process of drafting and delivery of the memo.

Haqqani now claims that the BlackBerry Messenger transcripts have been doctored, a ridiculous claim for any one who knows that BlackBerry's key selling point to governments and corporations is its secure communications feature. Even the highly resourceful governments cannot break the encryption of Blackberry devices, which poses serious national and homeland security issues.

Haqqani is the Fall Guy:

An essential goal of "Plausible Deniability" is that, in the event of public exposure, the lower ranks end up taking the fall to protect the people at the top. In this case, Ambassador Haqqani has taken the fall to protect his boss President Asif Zardari, at least in the short term. Zardari may survive this blow for now, but he will be a significantly weakened leader for the rest of the current term. And it is highly unlikely that he would be able to retain his office beyond his current term which will end in 2013.



BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) Transcripts:

Here are the BBS transcripts of Haqqani(HH)-Ijaz(MI) conversations as obtained and published by GeoTV:

05/09/2011 12:31 HH: Are you in London? I am here just for 36 hours. Can we meet for after dinner coffee or s'thing?

05/09/2011 12:32 MI: I'm in Monaco but it's no problem for me to fly up. Takes 90 minutes. What time did you have in mind? Where do you want to meet?

05/09/2011 12:35 HH: Pls call me. I'm at the Park Lane Intercon +442071060900 room 430

05/09/2011 12:35 HH: Waiting for ur call now 05/09/2011 13:37 MI: Could access to the 3 stooges who widow the man be arranged as part of the bigger picture?

05/09/2011 13:39 HH: I am sure that can be arranged upon formal demand

05/09/2011 13:40 MI: That is critical to breaking apart the system outside - and understanding what was going on inside. Would we get candor and truth or some brainwashed jargon?

05/09/2011 13:40 MI: The calls to Isphani's people have been made. Very very receptive reaction so far

05/09/2011 13:44 HH: If my friend and I feel sufficiently empowered in relation to the bad boys, I will ensure we get candor

05/09/2011 13:45 MI: Got it. Let me see if we can't get you a sledge hammer with a golden handle

05/09/2011 13:47 HH: Would be nice

05/09/2011 13:47 MI: I'm sending you a PIN message that others cannot see. Please respond. Thanks

05/09/2011 13:48 HH: Okay. Thx

05/09/2011 13:54 MI: Message by PIN sent

05/09/2011 13:56 HH: Okay

05/09/2011 14:22 MI: Message has been delivered to Isphani. Receptiom positive but I need you to agree to do something. Can I call you?

05/09/2011 15:02 MI: Please PING when you can talk and on what number. Time sensitive

05/09/2011 15:05 HH: Entering No 10. Can speak on cell after an hour

05/09/2011 15:05 MI: Okay. I'll wait for your PING

05/09/2011 16:09 HH: PING!!!

05/09/2011 16:09 HH: PING!!!

05/09/2011 16:09 HH: Pls call on cell now +16179532835

05/09/2011 16:10 HH: PING!!!

05/09/2011 16:19 MI: Sorry. Was stuck on call to DC. Pls ping again when ready

05/09/2011 18:26 HH: PING!!!

05/09/2011 18:27 MI: Tried you. Phone says unavailable

05/09/2011 18:38 MI: The message I sent is what MM will see. It will be given directly to him and no one else

05/09/2011 18:59 MI: My friend in DC simply said too many people have been burned in the past two years on the US side and he wanted to insure that on such a sensitive subject, the data and proposal are clear. This is you to me, me to him. He trusts me enough to know I won't bring it forward unless it has top level approval. He does not need it with any email addresses etc. He will scrub that in any event. If you want names to be mentioned, yours, JK, MD, etc, I will do that in person. So get whatever message you want delivered back to me and I'll insure it gets in MM's hands. Best. M

05/09/2011 19:02 MI: By the way, the interesting thing is that they consider AZ's approval of the message worth more than anyone else in country right now. How do you like that?

05/09/2011 20:43 MI: I have additional information you need to hear. Ping when I can call you please

05/09/2011 21:10 MI: Would it be safe to say that you don't want to run this up your flagpole because you need to work this deal from the middle out? Tell me if that's the case and I'll use a different approach that does not require something in writing. What would then be helpful is if I could simply have a BBM saying my talking points are correct, or not, and then you set your table, I'll set my table and make sure you are an honored guest at my table when the party begins. If you're good with that, I just need your okay on the talking points. No need to run it up the az-pole, if you get my drift. M

05/10/2011 00:29 HH: Msg recvd. Tweaking. Middile of road option sounds good. Will call morning.

05/10/2011 00:29 HH: PING!!!

05/10/2011 00:37 MI: Will you be sending me your tweaks or am I to use my copy as final? If tweaks are short, I can call you to get them

05/10/2011 08:47 MI: You have mail from two of my mailboxes. Please read, respond and then we have one last short discussion before I put everything in motion. Thanks. M

05/10/2011 12:45 MI: I was just informed by senior US intel that GD-SII Mr P asked for, and received permission, from senior Arab leaders a few days ago to sack Z. For what its worth

05/10/2011 13:08 HH: Thanks. Very useful 05/10/2011 13:09 HH: My friend and I agree with middle option. Go ahead

05/10/2011 14:57 MI: Message delivered with caveat that he has to decide how hard to push - we only set the table. He must decide if he wants one course meal or seven course meal. Ball is in play now - make sure you have protected your flanks

05/11/2011 12:33 MI: I've been asked to find out what time your meeting is today. Response so far indicates they are having a hard look, although they find it nearly impossible to believe anyone could deliver such results... to be expected, I suppose. Hope you got home okay. Did you see Mush while in London?

05/11/2011 14:59 MI: PING!!!

05/12/2011 00:36 HH: Call me on my cell

05/12/2011 00:37 HH: Also, M in ur msgs above referred to the Admiral, right?

05/12/2011 00:37 MI: Yes

05/12/2011 00:54 MI: Clarification. M at the end of a message is Mansoor. M or MM in the text of a message is the admiral. Apologies for any confusion. BBM when free. I'll call you. Whether it is shattering news or not is up to you to decide

05/12/2011 01:47 MI: I just received an email from my link to MM independently confirming what you told me by phone. He says MM was appreciative of our intervention and utilized the data to advise and consent

05/12/2011 02:47 HH: Thanx. On way to Isloo. Will touch base on return

05/12/2011 02:54 MI: Good luck. Let me know at any time if you need any help

Details of chat between MI and HH after his Financial article was published until the first week of November, 2011:

HH: you can keep saying you delivered a message and show bbm convos to prove it

HH: Basically you don't get it

HH: You have given hardliners in Pak Mil reason to argue there was an effort to get US to conspire against Pak Mil

HH: You are a US citizen

HH: You are supposed to look after US interests

MI: I wrote one article. Have not said one word on the record since then to anyone. I think your press is working both sides against the middle, trying to force something out of anyone they can. Period. I don't play in that game

HH: In Pak political situation, getting burned as a US stooge undermines one's effectiveness

HH: I will make sure FO shuts up

HH: Let this die down

HH: We are in the right

HH: We will still make things happen

MI: Okay, well I know my IQ is pretty low so you are probably correct in saying I just don't get it.

HH: The Pak press be damned

HH: I stand by you as a man of integrity werving his country

HH: You don't let ppl back home argue I play for your team, not ours

MI: But from my point of view, if there was a real threat, as you stated at the time, it is clear you were trying to save a democratic structure from those hawks

HH: You get to write the book on how you changed US-Pak dynamic and won the war in A'tan (w/ some help from a Paki nerd) :D

MI: I was happy to get the message in the back door because it served American interests to preserve the democratic civilian setup and the offers made, if achieved, were very much congruent with American objectives in the region

HH: True that, friend. But you know premature revelation ain't good

MI: As far as I can see, we did right. Unless there is something I don't see here. But then I'm sorta dumb from down on the farm where them hillbillies live

HH: Hey! Don't run down hillbillies

HH: Even the smartest can miss a piece of the puzzle

HH: You are assuming there are no powerful men in Pak willing to break w/ US. Premature revelation gives those ppl reason to claim 'conspiracy', 'treason'

HH: That is all you missed. Period.

HH: And no one else might tell you this, you're becoming irritable and losing your sense of humor as you grow old

HH: Let this one go. There is much to do. MUCH. And then, there's the beach where I've been waiting to be invited, the slum boy visiting the millionaire

MI: I'm not a millionaire. But I do know a nice piece of beach!

HH: I'm not a slum boy either but I know how to make friends with smart people with a sense of history :P

MI: Jesus, then what the -- are you doing hanging around with me? =D

HH: We'll make things happen and if we can't, we'll write a book about it

HH: Who said I was hanging around with you. A minute ago I thought you were about to hang me :D

MI: :O MI: Really?

HH: Look, Isloo is a mess. Journos gone wild. Politicos scared of mil. Mil scared of Yanks.

MI: Tell me one important thing. Who likes you and who hates you in the US establishment? Who wants you to stay and who wants to -- you up?

HH: The debate abt your oped has caused my detractors to put pressure on my boss

HH: In US estab, I can count on Leon and Petraeus

MI: I thought YOU were the boss!

MI: Who is against you?

HH: Folks at State don't like me

MI: Why?

MI: Too close to AZ?

HH: They think I am too mixed up w/ DoD and others and do not help them cut deals w/ Pak mil

HH: Close to AZ bit too

HH: They are wrong re DoD and others.

HH: It is just that becoz of A'tan, they are more imp than State

MI: I always thought HRC was one of your fans. She even has a lady from our parts working with her

HH: It is folks at State who got pissed off by your mission

HH: She may be but I was Holbrooke's buddy so everyone who hates him hates me

HH: I have no time for just pushing paper around

HH: State likes process

MI: Which mission? Sudan, Kashmir, there were so many they got pissed off about. I showed them how to do real American diplomacy and that was like a big pile of shit on their desk they couldn't swallow

HH: Conferences, statements-with nothing changing

HH: The latest one

MI: Yeah, I got it. You're right!

MI: Anyway, State will always hate me because I don't accept their muddling way of doing things

HH: I don't know for a fact but I won't be surprised if the FO statement was prompted by someone here

HH: Robin Raphel is back as Grossman's deputy

HH: You stepped on her toes w/ Kashmir mission

MI: That would be typical. But Grossman knows me and he knows how serious I am. Raphael still hates me for the Kashmir intervention where she did everything she could to fuck me up

HH: And now they hate me more when folks back home who hate me tell them you and I might have been together on s'thing (whether we were or not is irrelevant to them)

HH: Grossman is good but he doesn't like anyone playing a larger than life role. Old school

HH: That's why I have been requesting you to let this one go

MI: Yeah I know. Found that out when he was our lobbyist. But he's a good guy

HH: That takes attention off me

MI: Hmmmmmmmmm....... Not sure anything could take attention off you

HH: I try and make peace with State and focus on battles at home

HH: HaHa :D MI: Diplomacy at its finest!!! HH: Yeah, right! But at least I shd not be painted as playing for your team

MI: Why not? You were a good quarterback for those three days!!

HH: I want to solve -***ing problems not fight a rearguard action all the time

HH: :x

HH: Let us wait and see if Hillary's latest foray changes things in any direction

MI: Did we really solve a true problem or was this all smoke and mirrors?

MI: I mean on those days of stress...

HH: View here is that everyone in Isloo sucks!

MI: That's pretty much true!!!!

HH: Too early to say re solution

MI: But if they all suck, then what did we save - a sinking ship that was going to sink anyway???

HH: And there is a genetic problem at that end, predisposed to going round and round in circles

MI: Yup!! That's for damn sure

HH: I think we save the situation from an extremely violent outcome

MI: How can you solve the problems you understand so well from here if all the people in charge over there are wrong? It's only one year til we have a change in the US. Then you really won't like who we have here!

HH: I mean, Iran might have done better if the Shah had been saved AND some true reform introduced

HH: Actually, I think the new ppl here might be better to deal with

HH: They won't take lies easily

MI: Don't bet on it. We have a lot of extremists cropping up and seeping into the system

MI: They don't trust anything Pakistani

MI: Don't matter what it is

HH: Well, in that case find me a cheap piece of beach :)

MI: Cain, Romney (who hates Muslims), Perry - its all the same crap

MI: Hmmmmm, yes, I can arrange that

MI: Why is Z such an idiot?

HH: But don't go off writing opeds abt arranging piece of beach w'out consulting first :P

HH: HaHa! Tough question

HH: I have a speech in 20 mins so let's keep that for later

HH: Bye for now

MI: Okay. Good luck.

HH: Thank you!

MI: Hi buddy, I understand you/ your foreign office hacks are commissioning hatchet pieces against me. Unfortunate.... very unfortunate

HH: I will enquire and stop them. There's no need for any of this.

HH: You haven't helped by engaging so much w/ Pak media.

HH: What happened to the 'silent soldier'?

MI: I issued a statement that was designed to put an end to all of this after Imran Khan's rally nonsense. But be that as it may, I'm not going to tolerate character assassination in any of this

HH: I agree

HH: Will do my best to prevent it

MI: Roger that

HH: Focus on your policy message instead of who did what and we can turn this around

MI: Please remind your boss that his beloved wife, who later became a good friend of mine, tried the same bullshit tactics in 1996 when Maleeha was envoy - result: her government was dismissed in Nov 1996.

MI: I'm not someone he can mess around with. He better get that message from me and really understand it

HH: My response to Imran was very simple and true: I did not write a treasonous letter and if Imran has a copy, he should present it

HH: I don't think your threatening helps

MI: That's true from my point of view as well. But politicians are politicians

MI: I don't make threats. I state facts. Your boss needs reminding of the facts

HH: Are you sure your side won't deny?

MI: No, maybe they will. But that would also be a mistake. Too much proof on that side as well.

HH: But does "proving" help anything?

HH: Is it not the nature of a private mission that officials deny it?

MI: Don't know. Don't care. My point is simple - I've said what I was going to. Attacks on my person will not be tolerated. And my statement stands. Stop telling lies about me and I might just stip telling the truth about you

HH: If you were to listen to my advice, you would let this blow over and prove yourself afterwards. You are the one who will outlast the flying shit :)

HH: That is usually my strategy: be there when the others have self-destructed or blown over

MI: I've kept to my word - if everyone wants to call it a fabrication and make me the fall guy, then gloves come off and it's not going to be fun or pretty for anyone

MI: You did something you thought was right outside channels because you felt it would be the most effective way to get the job done. I helped you execute. I haven't thrown you under the bus. But be damn sure I won't let anyone do that to me

HH: I'll do what I can to keep it pretty

HH: I haven't. I won't.

MI: By the way, I know a lot more than you give me credit for about the circumstances that led to May 1 and your role in all that. Just FYI

HH: Honorable ppl stick with one another. Take care.

MI: ;)

HH: I am maintaining silence so pls check with me before reacting if some Pak journo attributes anything to me

MI: It's interesting (and heartening) to see that many of the proposals made in the memo are now being implemented in the bilateral relationship. Very good

Sent from my BlackBerry(r) wireless device

The secret memorandum to Mike Mullen Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff by Pakistan’s envoy to the United States Hussain Haqqani allegedly on behalf of President Asif Ali Zardari

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

Briefing for Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

During the past 72 hours since a meeting was held between the president, the prime minister and the chief of army staff, there has seen a significant deterioration in Pakistan’s political atmosphere. Increasingly desperate efforts by the various agencies and factions within the government to find a home – ISI and/or Army, or the civilian government – for assigning blame over the UBL [Osaama bin Laden] raid now dominate the tug of war between military and civilian sectors. Subsequent tit-for-tat reactions, including outing of the CIA station chief’s name in Islamabad by ISI officials, demonstrates a dangerous devolution of the ground situation in Islamabad where no central control appears to be in place.

Civilians cannot withstand much more of the hard pressure being delivered from the Army to succumb to wholesale changes. If civilians are forced from power, Pakistan becomes a sanctuary for UBL’s legacy and potentially the platform for far more rapid spread of al Qaeda’s brand of fanaticism and terror. A unique window of opportunity exists for the civilians to gain the upper hand over army and intelligence directorates due to their complicity in the UBL matter.

Request your direct intervention in conveying a strong, urgent and direct message to Gen Kayani that delivers Washington’s demand for him and Gen Pasha to end their brinkmanship aimed at bringing down the civilian apparatus – that this is a 1971 moment in Pakistan’s history. Should you be willing to do so, Washington’s political/military backing would result in a revamp of the civilian government that, while weak at the top echelon in terms of strategic direction and implementation (even though mandated by domestic political forces), in a wholesale manner replaces the national security adviser and other national security officials with trusted advisers that include ex-military and civilian leaders favorably viewed by Washington, each of whom have long and historical ties to the US military, political and intelligence communities. Names will be provided to you in a face-to-face meeting with the person delivering this message.

In the event Washington’s direct intervention behind the scenes can be secured through your personal communication with Kayani (he will likely listen only to you at this moment) to stand down the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment, the new national security team is prepared, with full backing of the civilian apparatus, to do the following:

1.President of Pakistan will order an independent inquiry into the allegations that Pakistan harbored and offered assistance to UBL and other senior Qaeda operatives. The White House can suggest names of independent investigators to populate the panel, along the lines of the bipartisan 9-11 Commission, for example.

2.The inquiry will be accountable and independent, and result in findings of tangible value to the US government and the American people that identify with exacting detail those elements responsible for harboring and aiding UBL inside and close to the inner ring of influence in Pakistan’s Government (civilian, intelligence directorates and military). It is certain that the UBL Commission will result in immediate termination of active service officers in the appropriate government offices and agencies found responsible for complicity in assisting UBL.

3.The new national security team will implement a policy of either handing over those left in the leadership of Al Qaeda or other affiliated terrorist groups who are still on Pakistani soil, including Ayman Al Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, or giving US military forces a “green light” to conduct the necessary operations to capture or kill them on Pakistani soil. This “carte blanche” guarantee is not without political risks, but should demonstrate the new group’s commitment to rooting out bad elements on our soil. This commitment has the backing of the top echelon on the civilian side of our house, and we will insure necessary collateral support.

4.One of the great fears of the military-intelligence establishment is that with your stealth capabilities to enter and exit Pakistani airspace at will, Pakistan’s nuclear assets are now legitimate targets. The new national security team is prepared, with full backing of the Pakistani government – initially civilian but eventually all three power centers – to develop an acceptable framework of discipline for the nuclear program. This effort was begun under the previous military regime, with acceptable results. We are prepared to reactivate those ideas and build on them in a way that brings Pakistan’s nuclear assets under a more verifiable, transparent regime.

5.The new national security team will eliminate Section S of the ISI charged with maintaining relations to the Taliban, Haqqani network, etc. This will dramatically improve relations with Afghanistan.

6.We are prepared to cooperate fully under the new national security team’s guidance with the Indian government on bringing all perpetrators of Pakistani origin to account for the 2008 Mumbai attacks, whether outside government or inside any part of the government, including its intelligence agencies. This includes handing over those against whom sufficient evidence exists of guilt to the Indian security services.

Pakistan faces a decision point of unprecedented importance. We, who believe in democratic governance and building a much better structural relationship in the region with India AND Afghanistan, seek US assistance to help us pigeon-hole the forces lined up against your interests and ours, including containment of certain elements inside our country that require appropriate re-sets and re-tasking in terms of direction and extent of responsibility after the UBL affair.

We submit this memorandum for your consideration collectively as the members of the new national security team who will be inducted by the President of Pakistan with your support in this undertaking.


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Arabs View Pakistan as Potential Superpower

Pakistan figured as the only Muslim majority country as a potential superpower in 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll survey conducted by Professor Shibli Telhami, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings Institution. The poll surveyed 3,000 people in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates in October 2011.

Asked if there could be only one superpower in the world, which country they would prefer it to be, China was favored by 23% of the respondents (up from 14% in 2009) followed by Germany 15% (down from 25%), Russia 12% (up from 7%), France 10% (down from 23%), Pakistan 7% (up from 3%), US 7% (down from 8%) and Britain 5% (down from 7%). In answer to another question about the preferred country they would like to live in, France topped the list with 28% (down from 36% in 2009), followed by Germany 22% (down from 25%), Britain 15% (up from 10%), China 11% (up from 9%), US 10% (up from 5%), Russia 4% (flat) and Pakistan just 2% (up from 1% in 2009).



Among the key poll findings are:

1. Turkey is the biggest winner of the Arab Spring. In the five countries polled, Turkey is seen to have played the "most constructive" role in the Arab events.

2. Overall, Arabs polled strongly take the sides of the rebels against the government in Yemen (89%), Syria (86%) and Bahrain (64%). But there are regional differences. Those polle din the UAE mostly favor the government of Bahrain. The Lebanese are divided on Syria; the Jordanians are divided on Bahrain; and the Egyptians' support for the rebels in Bahrain is weaker than their support for the rebels in Yemen and Syria.

3. While a majority of Arabs polled continue to express unfavorable views of the United States (59%) the number of those who have favorable views has increased from 10% in 2010 to 26% in 2011. This improvement could be related to the perception of the American handling of the Arab Spring.

4. A majority of Arabs polled (52%) remain discouraged by the Obama administration's policy in the the Middle East, though this is down from 65% in 2010 and up from only 15% in 2009.

Coming back to the idea of Pakistan as a potential superpower, it is not as far-fetched as it may be appear to some who currently see it as a nation beset by multiple serious crises. Pakistan is a very large country. In fact, Pakistan is one of the largest countries in the world. With population exceeding 170 million, it is one of only eight nations armed with nuclear weapons. The nation ranks as sixth largest in population, seventh largest in its army size, 7th largest diaspora, 8th in number of mobile phone users, 9th largest workforce, 10th in educated English speaking population, 17th largest in number of Internet users, 27th in economy and 34th in land area.

Today, Pakistan's economy is the 27th largest in the world. As Part of "the Next 11" group of nations, it is one of the top 15 emerging economies (BRICs+Next11) picked by Goldman Sachs. Goldman forecasts Pakistan to be among the top 20 biggest economies in the world by 2025. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the economic well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.

Pakistan continues to face major problems as it deals with the violent Taliban insurgency and multiple crises of stagnant economy, scarcity of energy and the lack of political stability and sense of security. The unfolding Memogate scandal is yet another reminder of the daunting challenges the nation must deal with. The bumbling political leadership of Pakistan is incompetent and corrupt. However, what the prophets of doom and gloom often discount are key factors that keep the nation going, including the resilience of Pakistan's people, the extraordinary capabilities of its large and growing urban middle class, and the stabilizing influence of its powerful military. Pakistan is just too big to fail. I fully expect Pakistan to survive the current crises, and then begin to thrive again in the near future.

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Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

US Firms Add Jobs in India & China, Cut at Home

American corporations created 453,000 jobs in India, a whopping 642% increase in a decade that saw the same corporations cut 846,000 jobs at home.

Overall, US multinational corporations added 1.5 million workers to their payrolls in Asia and the Pacific region from 1999 to 2009, and 477,500 workers in Latin America, according to US Commerce Dept data as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

From 1999 to 2009, the multinational companies also reduced capital-investment spending in the U.S. at an annual rate of 0.2% and increased it at a 4.0% annual rate abroad. This occurred in spite of huge Bush era tax cuts for the rich.



Bulk of the increase in overseas investment and hiring by U.S. multinationals has been in the service sector where most of the American middle class jobs have been lost. Among U.S. multinational firms in manufacturing, about 60% of employment is still in the U.S. But the manufacturers cut their U.S. payrolls by 2.1 million in the 2000s and added 230,000 workers overseas.



While the U.S. multinational manufacturers employ 6.9 million workers in the U.S. and 4.6 million abroad as of 2009, the trend clearly indicates the balance shifting in favor of overseas jobs at the expense of jobs in America.

The irony of it is that the vast majority of average citizens of nations like India where jobs have been created by American corporations have not benefited either. After the decade of job creation by US multi-nationals, India still remains home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates. Bulk of the benefits of globalization have gone to a few dozen powerful Indian oligarchs in "the world's largest democracy".

Looking at this jobs data, it's clear to me that the foolish and short-sighted actions of the American MNCs are undermining the very system that has nurtured and enriched them by creating middle class American consumers and voters whose jobs they are killing.

It's the middle class America that has supported the system of American democracy and free markets; destroying middle class America by taking their jobs overseas will only lead to rising instability that will threaten the very foundations of this system....the growing "Occupy" movement across major American cities and university campuses is only the tip of the iceberg of rising discontent.

It's time to save democracy and capitalism from the American capitalists!

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Resilient Pakistan Triumph Over Sri Lanka

Still reeling from a cheating scandal in the cricket world and overshadowed by a freshly brewing Memogate political crisis at home, Pakistan's national cricket team bounced back strongly with ODI and Test series wins against Sri Lanka in UAE.



In the One Day series decider today, Pakistan succeeded in defending a modest total of only 200 runs. Pakistan's star player Shahid Afridi proved not only his own resilience as a match-winner, but also helped restore his teammates' confidence in the international cricket arena. His allround performance with the bat and the ball was awe-inspiring. After scoring 75 runs with support from tailenders, Afridi went on to dismantle Sri Lankla's batting by claiming 5 wickets while conceding only 35 runs.

In a recent piece in the Wall Street Journal prior to the ODI series win, commentator Richard Lyons paid tribute to Pakistani cricketers by calling the team "freakishly talented" and "the most resilient entity in the world". Here's a brief excerpt from the WSJ piece:

"The Pakistan cricket team must be the most resilient entity in the world. Exiled from playing at home, repeatedly riven by internecine bickering and factionalism, and with three of their top players, including their two best bowlers, recently imprisoned for spot-fixing – and still last week they completed a Test series victory against Sri Lanka......the endless production line of freakishly talented Pakistani players continues to draw the sting of everything that happens to the team. That production line is driven by the deep love for the game in the country – a love that appears as resistant to the repeated abuse it receives as the team does. Against the backdrop of the London trial, their win in the UAE, against a side ranked above them, represented a heartening refusal to be steamrollered by events beyond their control. It's a quality every Pakistani cricketer needs in abundance."

Pakistanis are no strangers to the oft-repeated apocalyptic forecasts of imminent collapse of their nation that have been regularly dished out by many western leaders, leading analysts and mainstream media over the years. The 2009 Swat valley insurgency and 2010 and 2011 floods sent these pessimist pundits in overdrive yet again as the images of the victims of these crises were widely distributed and discussed at length.

Pakistan continues to face major problems as it deals with the violent Taliban insurgency and multiple crises of stagnant economy, scarcity of energy and the lack of political stability and sense of security. The unfolding Memogate scandal is yet another reminder of the daunting challenges the nation must deal with. The bumbling political leadership of Pakistan is incompetent and corrupt. However, what the prophets of doom and gloom often discount are key factors that keep the nation going, including the resilience of Pakistan's people, the extraordinary capabilities of its large and growing urban middle class, and the stabilizing influence of its powerful military. Pakistan is just too big to fail. I fully expect Pakistan to survive the current crises, and then begin to thrive again in the near future.

Here's a World Bank Video on Pakistanis' resilience:



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India & Pakistan Off-Track, Off-Target on Toilets

India will not reach its Millennium Development Goal on sanitation before 2047, while Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal will not achieve the target before 2028, according to a United Nations report released on the eve of World Toilet Day 2011.

The WaterAid report titled "Off-track, off-target: Why investment in water, sanitation and hygiene is not reaching those who need it most" says that 818 million Indians and 98 million Pakistanis lack access to toilets. It also reports that 148 million Indians and 18 million Pakistanis do not have adequate access to safe drinking water.



The five countries with the largest absolute numbers of people without sanitation – India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan – are all middle income and account for over 1.7 billion people without sanitation.



The report points out that the budgets allocated for water and sanitation improvements in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have been extremely low. Public spending on water and sanitation accounts for 0.45% of gdp in India and only 0.20% of gdp in Pakistan. Some of the shortfall has been made up by official development assistance, particularly for India which has been among the top aid recipients every year since 2000. However, a recent report from the Comptroller and Auditor General in India identified US$2 billion of unspent aid money in 2010. Although detail has not been available beyond a reference to weak planning, the India case study confirms that financial absorption is a problem that has affected the Total Sanitation Campaign in certain states. In Uttar Pradesh, only 63% of the funds released were used in 2005-06, although that improved to 83% in 2006-07. Findings from Chhattisgarh highlight the slow release and use of centrally available funding, with over half of the 16 districts experiencing delays in opting for the second installment. The research shows that the reasons for the low utilization include: states unable to match central government grants, deficiencies in the process of decentralized planning, shortages or short tenure of key staff, delay in the flow of funds, as well as multiple reporting requirements.

Earlier in October this year, India's rural development minister Jairam Ramesh said his nation's rivers have been turned into open sewers by 638 million Indians without access to toilets. He was reacting a UNICEF report that said Indians make up 58% of the world population which still practices open defection, and the sense of public hygiene in India is the worst in South Asia and the world.

WaterAid calls the current hygiene situation a "global crisis" and cites the following statistics:

I. 884 million people in the world do not have access to safe water. This is roughly one in eight of the world's population. (WHO/UNICEF)

II. 2.6 billion people in the world do not have access to adequate sanitation, this is almost two fifths of the world's population. (WHO/UNICEF)

III. 1.4 million children die every year from diarrhoea caused by unclean water and poor sanitation - 4,000 child deaths a day or one child every 20 seconds. This equates to 160 infant school classrooms lost every single day to an entirely preventable public health crisis. (WHO/WaterAid)

Solving this serious problem in developing nations is not going to be easy. It can not be done by simply replicating the western toilet for the vast majority of the poor in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. It will require creative thinking.

One example of creative thinking is Dr. Bindeshwar Pathak of Sulabh International in India. He has developed a simple, low-cost toilet which costs approximately Rs. 700 and could be installed anywhere, including villages without any plumbing. This toilet uses only 1.5 liters of water for flushing as against 10 liters by a conventional toilet. The toilet “system” consists of two pits: when the first one fills up, it is closed and the other one is used. The closed toilet dries up in two years when it is ready to be used as fertilizer and for conversion into biogas for heating, cooking, and generating electricity.

Another example is Dr. M. Sohail Khan, a professor from Pakistan currently working at UK's Loughborough University, who has received a grant from Gates Foundation. He and his research team are developing a toilet that produces biological charcoal,minerals, and clean water to transform feces into a highly energetic combustible through a process combining hydrothermal carbonization of fecal sludge followed by combustion. The process will be powered by the heat generated during the combustion phase and will recover water and salt from feces and urine.

Gates Foundation is funding research grants under "Reinvent the Toilet Challenge" program to develop a low-cost, no-flush toilet for the masses. In an interview on Public Radio, Dr. Frank Rijsberman of Gates Foundation explained it as follows: "We are asking people to come up with a toilet that does not flush, you know, clean water down an expensive set of pipes to get into a waste water treatment plant where we're spending even more energy and money to get that waste out again. We'd love for people to have what we sometimes call the cell phone of sanitation, an aspirational product that actually recovers resources from waste. There's a lot of energy in human waste. There is nutrients there, and we'd love to find a way to reuse those directly without relying on flushing your waste down the drain with clean drinking water."

I believe that the key to eventually solving the sanitation crisis in the developing world lies in the success of research and development efforts sponsored by organizations like Gates Foundation and Sulabh International.

Related Links:

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Fixing Sanitation Crisis in India

Food, Clothing and Shelter in India and Pakistan

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India and Pakistan Contrasted