Arabs View Pakistan as Potential Superpower

Pakistan figured as the only Muslim majority country as a potential superpower in 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll survey conducted by Professor Shibli Telhami, senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings Institution. The poll surveyed 3,000 people in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates in October 2011.

Asked if there could be only one superpower in the world, which country they would prefer it to be, China was favored by 23% of the respondents (up from 14% in 2009) followed by Germany 15% (down from 25%), Russia 12% (up from 7%), France 10% (down from 23%), Pakistan 7% (up from 3%), US 7% (down from 8%) and Britain 5% (down from 7%). In answer to another question about the preferred country they would like to live in, France topped the list with 28% (down from 36% in 2009), followed by Germany 22% (down from 25%), Britain 15% (up from 10%), China 11% (up from 9%), US 10% (up from 5%), Russia 4% (flat) and Pakistan just 2% (up from 1% in 2009).



Among the key poll findings are:

1. Turkey is the biggest winner of the Arab Spring. In the five countries polled, Turkey is seen to have played the "most constructive" role in the Arab events.

2. Overall, Arabs polled strongly take the sides of the rebels against the government in Yemen (89%), Syria (86%) and Bahrain (64%). But there are regional differences. Those polle din the UAE mostly favor the government of Bahrain. The Lebanese are divided on Syria; the Jordanians are divided on Bahrain; and the Egyptians' support for the rebels in Bahrain is weaker than their support for the rebels in Yemen and Syria.

3. While a majority of Arabs polled continue to express unfavorable views of the United States (59%) the number of those who have favorable views has increased from 10% in 2010 to 26% in 2011. This improvement could be related to the perception of the American handling of the Arab Spring.

4. A majority of Arabs polled (52%) remain discouraged by the Obama administration's policy in the the Middle East, though this is down from 65% in 2010 and up from only 15% in 2009.

Coming back to the idea of Pakistan as a potential superpower, it is not as far-fetched as it may be appear to some who currently see it as a nation beset by multiple serious crises. Pakistan is a very large country. In fact, Pakistan is one of the largest countries in the world. With population exceeding 170 million, it is one of only eight nations armed with nuclear weapons. The nation ranks as sixth largest in population, seventh largest in its army size, 7th largest diaspora, 8th in number of mobile phone users, 9th largest workforce, 10th in educated English speaking population, 17th largest in number of Internet users, 27th in economy and 34th in land area.

Today, Pakistan's economy is the 27th largest in the world. As Part of "the Next 11" group of nations, it is one of the top 15 emerging economies (BRICs+Next11) picked by Goldman Sachs. Goldman forecasts Pakistan to be among the top 20 biggest economies in the world by 2025. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the economic well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.

Pakistan continues to face major problems as it deals with the violent Taliban insurgency and multiple crises of stagnant economy, scarcity of energy and the lack of political stability and sense of security. The unfolding Memogate scandal is yet another reminder of the daunting challenges the nation must deal with. The bumbling political leadership of Pakistan is incompetent and corrupt. However, what the prophets of doom and gloom often discount are key factors that keep the nation going, including the resilience of Pakistan's people, the extraordinary capabilities of its large and growing urban middle class, and the stabilizing influence of its powerful military. Pakistan is just too big to fail. I fully expect Pakistan to survive the current crises, and then begin to thrive again in the near future.

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Jakarta Diary

Guest Post by Athar Javaid

Concluding a fairly involved and busy schedule at a trade conference and Green Technology show in Seoul South Korea, Jakarta some 3,200 miles south west of Seoul hardly seemed like a detour of choice on my way back home. But my fascination with this huge archipelago of 17508 islands that has long been simmering took over. Besides its fascinating geography and world’s second largest collection of plant species, Indonesia is world’s largest Muslim country (230m) sharing land borders with Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Malaysia. More importantly Indonesia is a republic with an elected legislature and president – A democratic society that has a history of having successfully integrated a host of human races with diverse ethnicity, cultures and religious beliefs.


Given the three and a half centuries of Dutch colonial rule followed by Independence after World War II and three decades of authoritarian rule by Suharto ending in 1998, Indonesians have come a long way in attaining a careful political balance between sociopolitical norms and emerging forces in Indonesian society. Balancing is some what iconic to Indonesian way of life. Balancing Culture and Religion, Islamism and Secularism, Regional autonomy and Centralized rule, Capitalism and Welfare state, all seem second nature to the Indonesians.

Despite its distinct ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups, Indonesia has developed a shared identity defined by its national motto,” Bhenneka Tunggal Ika” meaning “Many Yet One” or Unity in Diversity.

The Arabs notably Arabs of Yemeni origin played a dominant role in South East Asian trade and Islamization since the fifteenth century. As I sat in a Jakarta city tour bus listening to the guide and wondering about this monumental accomplishment of early Yemeni settlers in Indonesia and slow peaceful penetration of Islam over centuries that ultimately resulted in World’s largest Muslim state and pondering over the fact that from the 14th century to the end of the 19th century the region saw almost no organized Muslim missionary activity, it was easy to see that the key element of this grandeur accomplishment was the posture of the settler’s accommodating to and integrating with local beliefs and customs. This combined with the less rigid structure of Indonesian traditional society, including the active role of women in public life made it even more conducive. The resulting Indonesian Islam is tolerant, inclusive and inherently compatible with democratic ideals.

Despite their traditional role of the Yemenis as money sharks, these early settlers while earning money and economic clout in an alien society and culture nevertheless stimulated wide spread acceptance for Islam. Yemeni settlers whole heatedly respected and embraced the culture of the locale they lived in and adapted many cultural practices while subtly propagating the richness of thought and ideology fostered by Islam. This was further evidenced by several museum artifacts dating back to 17th century that represented their holistic approach to life striking a well carved balance within the boundaries of culture and religion.

The early Yemeni settlers in Indonesia have been an oasis of soft change without use of force or their economic clout. Yemeni hospitality, an icon of Yemeni culture must have been a definite plus in shaping their behavior in an alien society. However, at home, this hospitality is often “amiably armed” as evident by its deep expression in the 16th century in rescuing, feeding, housing and forcibly circumcising British soldiers when their naval ship wrecked off the Yemeni coast of Red Sea.

Today Indonesia continues to soft paddle the cultural differences sustaining and reinforcing the social fabric with an all inclusive approach to its diverse ethnicity. A recent example is the expression of inclusively towards Indonesians of Chinese descent. Since 1960 the Indonesians have removed a ban on Chinese characters in publications, and advertisements, a ban on celebrating the Chinese New Year, Chinese Cultural events and even declared Chinese New Year a public holiday. Mohamed Cheng Hoo Mosque – first mosque in Indonesia with Chinese architecture is indeed a clear statement of Islam’s compatibility with cultural diversity and a display of its dynamism – Dynamic enough to appeal to 17,508 islands – each one with its own character, culture and artistic ancestry.

Though grappling with day to day mundane issues ranging from land slides to typhoons, earthquakes, traffic jams and capsized ferries to political rivalries, Indonesia is finally on the right track. On the economic and social front Indonesia continues its path to emancipation combined with spiritual flamboyancy. Indonesia is world’s largest producer of palm oil, manufacturer of cars including automotive parts and one hundred percent use of bio fuel while exporting diesel fuel. A recent move to scrap duties on imports of machinery and raw material for seven vital industries is a welcome boost for business and commerce.

On the political front Indonesia appears to have mustered the capacity to deal with issues as diverse as corruption to ethnic discrimination and violence. Barely one month into his second term, President Susilo Bambang Yodhoyono appeared to meet the test of his credibility facing a serious challenge created by a conflict between National Police and the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

That said, even a country like Indonesia with such a strong track record of social, cultural and religious harmony and stable political system of governance is not immune to the wrath of radical Islam. July 09 bombing of the Ritz Carleton Hotels in Jakarta, the 2003 Marriott hotel bombing and 2002 Bali night club bombings are all perhaps indicative of more terror attacks waiting in the wings to unfold on the slightest trigger of religious or sectarian conflicts. It remains to be seen whether Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country is likely to experience its own process of religious extremism and radicalization.

Some uprising of armed paramilitaries after Suharto’s overthrow and with recent bombings seemed to suggest that Muslim politics even in this tolerant society is being radicalized. However Giora Eliraz, Robert, W. Hefner and many western scholars have provided a more thoughtful and ultimately hopeful prognosis showing the main stream of the Muslim community remains unswervingly moderate. The elections of June 1999 showed that most voters favored secular or moderate Islamist political parties, in fact by a larger majority than in the only other free and open general elections, held in 1955, when about 16 percent of the vote went to parties advocating conservative Islamic programs as opposed to more than 40 percent in 1955. Be that as it may! These self proclaimed soldiers of God and Mujahideens, hell bent on enforcing their brand of Islam through terror tactics could perhaps just look back and be thankful to those responsible for wide spread acceptance of Islam over 17,508 islands following the basic tenets of Islam and cultivating a good will culminating in integration of diverse cultures and communities that will remain exemplary for many centuries to come.

Indonesia with its solid balancing approach to resolve conflicting and debilitating issues is likely to lead the way for the rest of the Muslim world in combating and abating Islamic radicalism and ultimately upholding the basic Islamic values of “ Moderation” and Huqooq Al Ibad” denouncing radicalism and terror tactics in forcing piety.

“Bhenneka Tunggal Ika” “Many Yet One” or Unity in Diversity.

Athar Javaid is an NEDian currently serving as a Vice President of an IT Consulting Firm in Washington DC area.

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