Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ
Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.
Campaign rallies are being organized across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.
Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:
1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.
3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.
4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.
5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.
6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.
With Pakistani economy near collapse and the country's major political parties thoroughly discredited in the eyes of the people, former President General Pervez Musharraf has launched a new political party and vowed to galvanize Pakistanis to wage "jihad against poverty, hunger, illiteracy and backwardness".
While launching his bid to return to power, Musharraf showed rare contrition for his mistakes during his tenure by saying "I... sincerely apologize to the whole nation" for the "negative repercussions".
"I am aware of the fact that there were some decisions which I took which resulted in negative political repercussions, repercussions which had adverse effects on nation building and national political events, and my popularity also, may I say, plummeted in that last year. I take this opportunity to sincerely apologize to the whole nation. Ladies and gentlemen, only God is infallible," Musharraf added.
Mr Musharraf said he had learned his lessons and vowed not to repeat them.
As part of his campaign, Musharraf has gathered the support of almost all of the PML factions (notably Q, Ejazul Haq and Pir Pagara) with the sole exception of the group led by Sharif brothers.
In addition to using the widespread public dissatisfaction and anger with the rapid deterioration of economy and security situation, Mr. Musharraf can run on his record during 2000-2008 which the current PPP government hailed in its 2008 MOU with the IMF as follows:
"Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1).
Given the corruption and mismanagement by the PPP and PML(N) parties in what is now called the "lost decade" of the 1990s, and again since 2008, there is clearly a need for a third party to give people a wider choice if genuine democracy is to be sustained in Pakistan. Musharraf's party, called "All Pakistan Muslim League", has an opportunity to force the PPP and the PML(N) to deliver, or be replaced by a third option.
Per Capita PPP GDP
Here are video clips of Musharraf launching "All Pakistan Muslim League":
Indian and Pakistani democracies have a lot in common. Both systems of governance are a legacy of the British Raj; both have failed to deliver basic necessities, good governance, rule of law and speedy justice to the vast majority of their people; both have been marred by a close nexus between crime and politics; both have many criminals, including violent felons, as members of the legislature and the executive. But the big difference is in the top leadership; the Indian democracy is led by Dr. Manmohan Singh, also known as Mr. Clean; Pakistani democracy has Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, often labeled as Mr. Ten Percent, as its top leader. The culture of rampant political corruption has come in sharp focus for Pakistanis with the recent release of the names of the beneficiaries of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), a euphemism for the 2007 US-sponsored amnesty decree by former President Musharraf. There are 34 prominent politicians, including President Asif Ali Zardari and his close associates, topping the NRO beneficiaries list of about 8000 people accused of corruption.
This is by no means a complete list of all the corrupt politicians in Pakistan; it's mainly a list of politicians and bureaucrats included in the "NRO" deal struck between President Musharraf and late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto under pressure from Washington. The PML politicians have been explicitly excluded from the pardon under the deal. For example, it does not include the Sharif brothers, who have had serious charges of crime and corruption leveled against them, as recently brought out by the affidavits of the PML leader Ishaq Dar, that implicated both of the Sharif brothers in money laundering. The NRO list is probably just the tip of a much larger iceberg threatening Pakistan's national security, current stability and future prospects.
Of the 278 current Indian MPs for whom records are obtainable, 63 have criminal backgrounds. Of those, 11 have been charged with murder and two stand accused of dacoity (banditry). Other alleged misdemeanors range from fraud to kidnapping, according to data collected by National Election Watch, the campaign group that has put together the data. Fortunately for India, none of these criminal politicians occupy the top leadership positions in New Delhi. The honest leaders at the top, leaders like Dr. Manmohan Singh, set a good example of honest, selfless public service for the rest of Indian society.
Unfortunately, the criminal justice system in South Asia is incapable of speedy resolution when the rich and powerful are accused of crimes. “The speed of the Indian judicial system means it can take 30 years to complete a case – easily long enough to live out a full political career,” Mr Himanshu Jha, of India's National Social Watch Coalition, told the Times Online recently. If the NRO were to be allowed to lapse on November 28 as expected, the politicians in Pakistan can easily avoid accountability by filing appeals after appeals in a slow-moving justice system, where it's easy to pay the lawyers and the judges to push out the trial dates, or to make deals to get the charges dismissed altogether.
Predictably, the PML party members led by Nawaz Sharif, who are waiting in the wings to grab power, are playing up the PPP corruption issue for their own benefit. At the same time, many pro-PPP advocates for democracy in Pakistan are counseling patience in the interest of "national security" and "political stability".
The fact is that these “democratic" leaders are so thoroughly corrupt that they can be bought for a fistful of dollars by any body, including the sworn enemies of Pakistan. The kind of stability that will come from these people will only encourage more crime by politicians and growing cynicism among the suffering people of Pakistan, as born out by a recent British Council survey that shows 80% of Pakistani youth are pessimistic about their future.
Rampant corruption by the top leaders is highly corrosive for the entire society. Ignoring the crimes and corruption of top leaders will neither boost national security nor political stability. In fact, it will do just the opposite, by eating away at Pakistan's guts from within. It will make Pakistan more vulnerable to complete failure and ultimate collapse without help from of any external enemies.
To pave the way for a more responsive, better governed, and modern industrialized democracy, the model that is most likely to deliver what Pakistanis need now in terms of political stability and economic opportunity is the ASEAN model, adopted by Suharto of Indonesia, Mahathir of Malaysia and Lee Kuan Yu of Singapore. These three benevolent, relatively honest and competent dictators of ASEAN, who were repressive and ruthless at times, transformed their nations from poor and backward agrarian societies to powerful, industrialized and democratic Asian tigers.
Given its large size, the Indonesian development model under Suharto should be of particular interest to Pakistanis. During Suharto’s three decades in power, Indonesia’s economy grew an average of 7 percent annually, and living standards rose substantially for the bulk of the population. Education and mass literacy programs were used to promote the national language, Bahasa Indonesia, and to unify the country’s disparate ethnic groups and scattered islands. While Suharto used unfettered dictatorial powers and his own family benefited greatly from Indonesia's crony capitalism and its rapid economic growth, the nation reaped huge benefits as well, and eventually, the significantly enlarged, educated and prosperous Indonesian middle class asserted itself and brought democracy to Indonesia after forcing Suharto out in 1998.
Here is an interesting video clip of a Pakistani minister's frank admission of the PPP involvement in bribery. Listen to Mr. Abdul Qayyum Khan Jatoi, Federal Minister for Defense Production, proclaiming that it is the “political right” of every politician to do corruption: “yaar, karrapshun pay humara haq nahiN hai, aur unn ka hai!”:
Here's a video clip on India's massive corruption:
Months after the amnesty signed by President Musharraf, Switzerland is continuing to pursue corruption charges against Mr. Zardari. Asif Zardari, the widower of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, is accused of depositing $55 million worth of bribes in Swiss bank accounts. Swiss judicial authorities have been investigating Zardari and Bhutto for the past 10 years over allegations that they took bribes from Swiss cargo inspection firms and transfered them into their accounts, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera.
At a hearing on Feb 20, Swiss lawyers for Pakistan argued that money-laundering charges against Zardari should proceed in Geneva despite Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, dropping all graft charges against the couple last year. The constitutionality of the amnesty has not yet been ratified by the supreme court in Pakistan. The Swiss lawyers said the decision was expected in "a few weeks". Dominique Henchoz, Pakistan's Swiss lawyer, told the Geneva court: "This dossier is a bomb for Zardari. "His name appears on each page as the beneficial owner of offshore companies. Some 60 million Swiss francs have been frozen in Geneva accounts", reports Al Jazeera. Saverio Lembo, Zardari's lawyer in Geneva, said that the case should be suspended until a decision on the amnesty is made.
In 2003, a Geneva court convicted Bhutto and Zardari of laundering funds linked to alleged kickbacks worth $13m. However, the verdict was thrown out on appeal and a new investigation by magistrates was dismissed last October. Charges against Bhutto ended when she was assassinated.
As Mr. Zardari attempts to put together a coalition with Mr. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, the restoration of judiciary remains a point of contention. While this difference seems to have been glossed over temporarily, it has the potential to cause a serious split between the two coalition partners. The fact that the amnesty for Zardari signed by President Musharraf is still to be ratified by the Supreme Court will figure prominently in the outcome of any negotiations.
In spite of all the efforts by late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her US backers, and the recent electoral success of the PPP, this issue of corruption refuses to go away. It will be interesting to see how this gets resolved. In my humble opinion, Mr. Zardari should insist on the completion of this trial to clear his and his late wife's name.
The Pakistan People's Party has emerged as the largest single party with 87 seats, Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League as the second largest with 66 seats, and pro-Musharraf PML(Q) third at 40 seats, with votes counted in 258 out of 272 constituencies. Now that a clear picture is emerging of the relative strengths of various parties in Pakistan's incoming parliament, there is a lot of posturing going on in front of the TV cameras by the key players. Some of it is for public consumption, but most of it is to establish negotiating positions by each party leader. While what you see on the public stage is interesting, the rumor mill has it that it is the action behind the scenes that will ultimately determine the future of President Musharraf, Pakistan's role in the "war on terror" and the shape of the new government. It's not really clear how this will play out. It would be a mistake to assume President Musharraf's position is weak. No single party has enough seats to confront him alone. It depends on how Pervez Musharraf and Asif Zardari, the leader of PPP, play their cards and the US role in it. Mr. Nawaz Sharif, the leader of PML with the second largest number of seats, is disliked intensely by Musharraf, Zardari and the US. Let's just wait and see what happens. I wouldn't completely rule out the PPP joining forces with pro-Musharraf parties including MQM (19 seats) and PML(Q) to edge Nawaz Sharif out. Together, the three parties can buy out independents. Asif Zardari fears restoration of independent judiciary (particularly Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry) as much as Musharraf. Especially if it jeopardizes the National Reconciliation Ordnance that gave blanket amnesty to Benazir Bhutto, Asif Zardari and key members of the Pakistan Peoples Party. I think this horse-trading is going to be interesting. We can expect a clear picture of the new government composition to emerge within a few days.
A new poll in Pakistan conducted by the US-based International Republican Institute shows President Musharraf's opposition receiving support from 72% of respondents. Only 15% of the poll participants approve of Mr. Musharraf, lowest ever positive rating registered for him to date. The sympathy wave for PPP in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination has lifted it to 50% of the respondents voting for it, with PML (Nawaz Sharif) at 22%. This poll of 3,845 adults was conducted Jan 19-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.69%, reports the Washington Post in today's edition. Only 14% said they planned to vote for PML-Q, the main pro-Musharraf party.
While this poll result does not augur well for pro-Musharraf forces, there are questions about the sample size, the regional differences, and the presence of other smaller ethnic parties affecting the final outcome in terms of the number of parliamentary seats won by PPP, PML (N), PML (Q), MQM, JUI, and ANP. Similar polls have notoriously failed to correctly predict the outcome in the recent primaries in the US.
In answer to the question "Would you say the ruling coalition has done a good enough job to deserve re-election", 29% of the respondents said yes, 62% said no and the rest did not know or did not answer. This suggests that there's some ambivalence among 10-20 % of the people in this sample as to who to vote for.
Based on this poll, it is likely that PPP will emerge as the single largest party, though not necessarily with 50% of the seats. The rest of the seats will probably be won by PML(N), PML(Q), MQM, JUI and ANP in that order. The composition of the future government will likely depend on whether the traditional rivals in the PML(N) and the PPP can really work together and reach an accommodation with Musharraf, at least for a while.
The fear still remains that, if the results are substantially different from this expected outcome, the predictable mass protests in Pakistan will succeed in upending the entire nation and its economy with severe negative, long term consequences for Pakistan. Such a situation could lead to another military takeover and Martial Law setting the political process back. It is in the best interest of all Pakistani leaders to show flexibility in the interest of advancing the political process without repeating the vicious cycle Pakistan has been in for the last 50 years.
Over the last few weeks, the US government has been making various statements about the political situation in Pakistan. There's a lot of talk about "tough messages" and "restoring democracy" in Pakistan. However, I believe Benazir Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf have both been severely damaged by the open and repeated statements of support by the Bush administration. In my humble opinion, this is likely to backfire just like it did in Palestine when US threw its support behind Mahmood Abbas. Average Pakistanis may not be the most well-informed and educated people but they can see this US intervention for what it is: An overt attempt to install US favorites in power. If relatively free and fair elections are held as planned in Jan 08, I see a hung parliament at best with PPP/MQM in Sind, PML(N) and PML(Q) in Punjab and MMA in NWFP/Baluchistan as the winners. The overt US support may, in fact, enhance the popularity of the parties not seen to be supported by the US and increase their strength in Parliament. Given this scenario, no one can take for granted the post of the prime minister with this set up. Gen Musharraf can still influence the outcome in his favor if he plays his cards right even in the face of free and fair elections. The one big unknown is the extent of US influence in Pakistani military if the US decides to dump Musharraf. If the US gets Pakistani military brass to overthrow Musharraf, then all bets are off.
