The World Bank researchers have recently concluded that 88 per cent live in urban areas. Their conclusion is based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology. The official Pakistani figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the current level of urbanization at 39%. The source of this massive discrepancy is the government's reliance on administrative boundaries rather than population density and settlement patterns, according to the World Bank working research paper titled "When Does a Village Become a Town?".
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| Urbanization in Pakistan. Source: World Bank |
Urban areas are characterized by high population density, while rural areas are sparsely populated with more open space. Major differences include urban areas having more commercial development, diverse job opportunities, and a faster pace of life, while rural areas often focus on agriculture and have a slower pace of life with closer-knit communities but may face challenges with limited access to services.
The World Bank’s Paper suggests that secondary cities and peri-urban areas — rather than megacities — are the primary drivers of recent urban expansion which are systematically overlooked in official Pakistani classifications. This discrepancy between functional and administrative classifications has significant fiscal and planning implications.
Pakistan's official data grossly underestimates urbanization, with Islamabad showing only 47% urban population compared to 90% under the DoU, while figures in Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh are more closely aligned. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the DoU estimates the urban population at nearly three times the official 15%, while Islamabad is mostly dense urban, and other provinces show mixed suburban and peri-urban growth. The report finds that Pakistan’s urban landscape has transformed dramatically over the past two decades. Since the early 2000s, a growing share of the rural population has left agriculture, transforming previously rural settlements into new and vibrant urban centers. Unlike Afghanistan, India and sub-Saharan Africa, the agriculture sector is no longer the top employer in Pakistan. Services sector is now the top employment sector in the country.
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| Top Employment Sector in Each Country. Source: Visual Capitalist |
The policy research paper finds that misclassified areas reduce property tax revenues and undermine the planning and provision of critical public services. It also distorts spatial socioeconomic indicators, masking the true extent of urban-rural disparities and complicating the design of effective, evidence-based public policy.
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| Urbanization Comparison of Developing Nations Based on DoU Method |
The DoU method facilitates cross-national comparisons, as it provides a consistent criteria. Application of the DoU reveals that, despite variation across urban typologies, the proportion of the population residing in urban areas exceeds 70 percent in all examined countries. The list (fig 2) includes Brazil and Pakistan (98% each). Bangladesh (79%), Egypt (83%), India (77%) and Mexico (82%).
The paper finds that Pakistan is among only a minority of countries that use purely administrative definitions to identify urban areas. Changing how the country determines urban areas to include population density, service access, and other urban characteristics will allow it, as the DoU shows, to account for a varied urban landscape. Recognizing the existence of areas between dense cities and rural villages can help to establish a staggered expansion of the areas subject to property taxes. Updating the urban classification could increase property taxes sevenfold, and new technologies can help modernize cadaster systems. Besides supporting the reclassification of what areas are urban, satellite data offers additional possibilities to identify properties and update the cadasters.
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7 comments:
I like how you put India in the same league as Afghanistan and sub-Saharan Africa here, but just so you know, these are some of the things India's rural "sub-Saharan" economy makes these days.
https://youtu.be/xz6StVd0c6k?si=KTbCitako_gYmZA4
https://youtu.be/oOo9XpL0i3I?si=iI4vfR1nPjxgqUTO
India Economic Survey 2025: Employment increased in agriculture sector, decreased in manufacturing and services
The government had said in last year’s Economic Survey that an average of 7.85 million non-farm jobs would need to be created annually by 2030 to productively engage the growing working population
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/agriculture/economic-survey-2025-employment-increased-in-agriculture-sector-decreased-in-manufacturing-and-services#:~:text=Economic%20Survey%202025:%20Rise%20in,engage%20its%20growing%20working%20population.
Even though the Economic Survey 2024-25 has presented a bright picture of employment, it has proved that the government has been unable to shift employment from agriculture to other sectors by talking about employment decline in the services and construction sectors and rise in agricultural jobs.
The government had said in the Economic Survey 2023-24 that the Indian economy would need to create an average of 7.85 million non-farm jobs annually by 2030 to productively engage its growing working population.
This means that India needs to remove about 3.5 million people from agriculture every year and create 7.85 million jobs in non-agricultural sectors to achieve the transition from agricultural to non-agricultural employment.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 shows that the government has not been able to shift people from the agriculture sector to services or manufacturing. The Economic Survey says that the agriculture sector still remains the leader in employment. Its share in employment was 44.1 per cent in 2017-18, which has increased to 46.1 per cent in 2023-24. That means, during the last six years, dependence on agriculture for employment has increased by two per cent. In 2023, 45.8 per cent of employment was in the agriculture sector.
This figure shows that apart from agriculture, other sectors are not successful in generating employment. The Economic Survey 2024-25 also says that the share of industry and services sector in employment has seen a decline.
The survey document, quoting the report of the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24, said the share of the manufacturing sector in providing employment in 2023-24 declined from 12.1 per cent to 11.4 per cent and the share of the services sector decreased from 31.1 per cent to 29.7 per cent, in comparison to 2017-18.
Narendra Modi Will Leave Behind a Broken India
By Sudhanshu Tripathi
https://intpolicydigest.org/narendra-modi-will-leave-behind-a-broken-india/
As India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi nears the end of what is likely to be his final term in office, a reckoning feels inevitable. After three terms marked by grand ambition, partisan dominance, and polarizing governance, Modi’s legacy is poised for intense scrutiny—not merely by political opponents, but by history itself.
Modi came to power promising transformation. Yet many of the most pressing challenges facing India today—economic stagnation, diplomatic friction, rising authoritarianism, and domestic unrest—have been exacerbated, not alleviated, under his leadership. India’s aspiration to reclaim its ancient stature as a Vishwaguru, a moral and civilizational leader on the world stage, now rings hollow in the cacophony of recent failures. The 2025 India-Pakistan war, China’s continued border incursions, and a visible lack of international solidarity during crises like Operation Sindoor all underscore a profound gap between rhetoric and geopolitical reality.
What began as a focused, energetic premiership has veered into an era of dysfunction. Modi’s weakening grip on foreign policy—manifested in frayed relations with key powers such as the U.S., UK, France, and Canada—reflects a broader loss of strategic coherence. The dream of elevating India into a global powerhouse has suffered repeated blows, not least from the absence of robust international alliances during moments of crisis. Instead, Modi’s leadership has appeared increasingly reactive, hamstrung by age, fatigue, and the consequences of wielding unchecked authority in a political landscape drained of serious opposition.
Domestically, his government faces mounting accusations of cronyism, corruption, and a willingness to sacrifice institutional integrity for political gain. From shielding BJP politicians accused of sexual assault—like Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh—to fostering a culture of impunity through the misuse of central investigative agencies, the Modi government has frequently weaponized the machinery of governance against its critics while turning a blind eye to wrongdoing within its ranks.
Nowhere is this institutional corrosion more visible than in the collapse of public trust in law enforcement and the judiciary. The ethnic violence in Manipur, for instance, spiraled into chaos without even a symbolic visit from the prime minister. Nor did he make a serious effort to restore confidence in security forces or engage with the humanitarian disaster on the ground.
Meanwhile, the BJP has mastered a kind of transactional politics that rewards defection. Politicians facing corruption charges have found themselves absolved the moment they pledge loyalty to the ruling party. Ajit Pawar, Chhagan Bhujbal, and others have undergone near-miraculous moral rehabilitations after joining the BJP—an alchemy that mocks the idea of justice and deepens public cynicism.
The health of India’s democracy itself appears to be faltering. The wholesale suspension of opposition MPs from Parliament to avoid uncomfortable debates amounts to a betrayal of democratic norms. When dissent is silenced and meaningful scrutiny is replaced by spectacle, it’s not just the opposition that suffers—it’s the republic as a whole.
Though I agree with the Modi-centric criticism in the article above as regards to his brand of hate-driven politics, authoritarianism, the absence of economic growth that matches the manufactured hype and rhetoric etc, I find it strange for a Pakistani to highlight these considering the far more dismal state of Pakistan itself on these very matters.
On the one hand, Pakistan's economy is still essentially on a life support in the form of IMF bailouts with an external debt that is 5 times its forex reserves, while the ruling class continues to chase magic bullets and geopolitical rents rather than real economic reforms.
"Manias and magic bullets" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1956193/manias-and-magic-bullets
"Lighting the way" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1944466/lighting-the-way
"Withering geoeconomics" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1949239/withering-geoeconomics
"Living with dysfunction" - Khurram Husain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954784/living-with-dysfunction
On the other hand, with the recent passing of the 27th amendment, the anointment of the 'Field Marshal' as the "Chief of Defense Forces" and the effective formalization of the Army's overlordship over the other two services there is now not even a shred of pretence about who is really in charge of the country. Not to mention how the last remaining pillars of judicial independence in Pakistan has seemingly been knocked down with the new judicial "reforms" that came as part of the amendment as well.
"Dismantling Justice: A Full-Frontal Assault on the Rule of Law" - International Commission of Jurists
https://www.icj.org/pakistan-dismantling-justice-a-full-frontal-assault-on-the-rule-of-law/
"Killing the Constitution" - Zahid Hussain
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954621
"Analysis: One chief to rule all military services" - Baqir Sajjad Syed
https://www.dawn.com/news/1954032
"Silence or surrender: The 27th Amendment and the unmaking of justice" - Waqas Ahmed
https://www.dawn.com/news/1953885
"Notable lawyers, citizens laud judges who resigned in wake of 27th Amendment"
https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1959547
"27th Amendment: The end of an era" - Zainab Shahid
https://www.dawn.com/news/1955038
"State and its pillars" - Arifa Noor
https://www.dawn.com/news/1955789/state-and-its-pillars
Wow! Much different than commonly believed!!
I need to read the World Bank report.
Google AI Overview:
Approximately 80% of Americans live in urban areas, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This figure has increased over time, and the Census Bureau defines "urban" as densely developed territory with residential, commercial, and other non-residential land uses.
Definition: An urban area is a densely developed territory with at least 2,000 housing units and a population of at least 5,000 people.
Data source: This 80% statistic comes from the 2020 census data and was reconfirmed in 2022.
Comparison: The remaining 20% of the U.S. population lives in rural areas.
Rashid: "Much different than commonly believed!! I need to read the World Bank report"
The discrepancy in figures comes from differences in definition and methodology. Pakistani government uses strict administrative boundaries while the World Bank prefers Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology.
Urban areas are characterized by high population density, while rural areas are sparsely populated with more open space. Major differences include urban areas having more commercial development, diverse job opportunities, and a faster pace of life, while rural areas often focus on agriculture and have a slower pace of life with closer-knit communities but may face challenges with limited access to services.
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