Sunday, July 17, 2022

UN Report: Last Decade Saw 16.5 Million Pakistanis Migrate Overseas

Among 10 countries with the estimated net outflow of migrants exceeding 1 million over the period from 2010 through 2021, Pakistan saw 16.5 million migrants move overseas, the highest in the world, according to a report titled "World Population Prospects 2022" released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). 

Pakistani Workers' Overseas Migration Data (2010-2021). Source: Bureau of Emigration


In many of these countries with more than one million people leaving, the outflows were due to temporary labor movements, such as for Pakistan (net outflow of 16.5 million), India (3.5 million), Bangladesh, (2.9 million), Nepal (1.6 million) and Sri Lanka (1.0 million).  The report also said that India's population will surpass China's in 2023. Over half of the global population increase up to 2050 will be in just 8 countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines & Tanzania.

Population Sizes of China, India and Pakistan 1950-2099. Source: Our World in Data

The figure of 16.5 million migrants outflow from Pakistan is much higher than the numbers reported by the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment of the Government of Pakistan. A possible source of discrepancy is the uncounted numbers of the family members who accompany workers going abroad for work.  

Between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries or territories have experienced a net inflow of more than 200,000 migrants; in 17 of those, the total net inflow exceeded 1 million people. In 2020, Turkey hosted the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers worldwide (nearly 4 million),followed by Jordan (3 million), the State of Palestine (2 million) and Colombia (1.8 million). Other major destination countries of refugees, asylum seekers or other persons displaced abroad were Germany,  Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan, Uganda and the United States of America. 

Top Remittance Receiving Countries in 2021. Source: World Bank

Pakistan has received nearly $31 billion in worker remittances in 2021, up a whopping 20% from the prior year, according to the World Bank. This is a new record representing nearly 10% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This money helps the nation cope with its perennial current account deficits. It also provides a lifeline for millions of Pakistani families who use the money to pay for food, education, healthcare and housing. This results in an increase in stimulus spending that has a multiplier effect in terms of employment in service industries ranging from retail sales to restaurants and entertainment. 

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9  months of the current fiscal year. 

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. This dividend is manifesting itself in high levels of worker exports and record remittances pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States. 

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020,  more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East has been over half a million in the last decade. 

Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world.  India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.  

Pakistan Demographics

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances. 

Projected Population Decline in Emerging Economies. Source: Nikkei Asia

common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.

Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:

"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."

Migration vs Human Development Source: Hein de Haas











Data shows that increased human and economic development is initially associated with increasing emigration. Any form of development in the poorest countries of the world is therefore likely to lead to accelerating emigration. Such findings contradict conventional thinking and force us to radically change our views on migration. Such rethinking can be achieved by learning to see migration as an intrinsic part of broader development processes rather than as a problem to be solved, or the temporary response to development “disequilibria”, according to The Conversation, a US publication.

31 comments:

S. Kumar said...

Lol. For all Pakistanis/ Bangos who claim Indians are running out of their country, this is a slap on their face.

Riaz Haq said...

Kumar: "Lol. For all Pakistanis/ Bangos who claim Indians are running out of their country, this is a slap on their face"

That's the reason India has a serious unemployment and hunger issue. India's labor force participation rate is the lowest in South Asia.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html


"India’s LPR is much lower than global levels. According to the World Bank, the modelled ILO estimate for the world in 2020 was 58.6 per cent (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS). The same model places India’s LPR at 46 per cent. India is a large country and its low LPR drags down the world LPR as well. Implicitly, most other countries have a much higher LPR than the world average. According to the World Bank’s modelled ILO estimates, there are only 17 countries worse than India on LPR. Most of these are middle-eastern countries. These are countries such as Jordan, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Senegal and Lebanon. Some of these countries are oil-rich and others are unfortunately mired in civil strife. India neither has the privileges of oil-rich countries nor the civil disturbances that could keep the LPR low. Yet, it suffers an LPR that is as low as seen in these countries".

India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.

Kumar said...

Indians will be studying in 15-24 age group. Also India's ILO is lower because of very low women's participation in BIMARU regions. If you have good education and are ready to put in right enterprise India provides the best opportunities compared to any tin pot countries in the region. No offense.

Riaz Haq said...

Kumar:"Indians will be studying in 15-24 age group"

You can't study if you are hungry.

India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html

Iftikhar said...

3.5 million people outflow of Indians compared to 16.5M Pakistanis seem very low. Indian immigrants to US, Australia and other countries appears to be overwhelmingly high.

Riaz Haq said...

Iftikhar: "3.5 million people outflow of Indians compared to 16.5M Pakistanis seem very low. Indian immigrants to US, Australia and other countries appears to be overwhelmingly high"

I think immigrants are not counted as migrant workers.

Vasudeva said...

India's Fiscal Q1 GDP growth seen at 14-15% on services' revival


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/q1-gdp-growth-seen-at-14-15-on-services-revival/articleshow/92943686.cms?from=mdr

Riaz Haq said...

Vasu: "India's Fiscal Q1 GDP growth seen at 14-15% on services' revival"

India's headline GDP growth figures are not translating into jobs.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2022/04/hindu-nationalist-rss-leadership.html

Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha (ABPS), the top decision-making body of India's RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), says that “the young generation is suffering from unemployment and the pandemic has made things even grim... We cannot turn a blind eye to unemployment. It is a crisis and it needs to be addressed.” The RSS was apparently reacting to the falling labor participation rate in India relative to Pakistan and the global averages. The RSS leadership wants the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to focus on helping small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to create jobs. RSS likes Modi government's ‘Make in India’ initiative “but it needs to be sharpened even more and get more investment.” The resolution is titled, ‘The need to promote work opportunities to make Bharat self-reliant’. The solution offered by ABPS resolution: Take agro-based local initiatives to promote rural areas and create jobs, according to Ram Madhav, a member of the RSS executive committee.

Riaz Haq said...

Arif Habib Limited
@ArifHabibLtd
Highest ever remittances during FY22

Jun’22: $2.8bn, +2% YoY, +18% MoM
FY22: $ 31.2bn, +6% YoY

https://twitter.com/ArifHabibLtd/status/1548885472851726336?s=20&t=gpIdgi1_4lPDmRp00u6aiA

Majumdar said...

As per your statistics, there are almost 5 times as many Pak emigrants as Indians. But they sent back only USD 31 billion as remittances as compared to USD 89 billion by Indians. Why?

Riaz Haq said...

Majumdar: "As per your statistics, there are almost 5 times as many Pak emigrants as Indians. But they sent back only USD 31 billion as remittances as compared to USD 89 billion by Indians. Why?"


The UN figures in my post are for one decade-- 2010-2021-- not total numbers.

There are a lot more Indians living abroad than Pakistanis.

Vasudeva said...

Now we know which country is a hell hole!

Riaz Haq said...

Vasudeva: "Now we know which country is a hell hole!"


A common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.

Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:

"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."


https://www.riazhaq.com/2019/12/over-half-million-pakistanis-migrating.html

samir sardana said...

For Mr Majumdar and Vasudeva

There are 32 million Indians abroad,as per the MEA

Pakistanis are half that number

It is elementary maths

Besides,the Indians who loot their host nations,like in Zuma's Africa etc., keep their stash,in Dubai and India

They have full faith on the incompetence of the Indian Investigators,and the corruptibility of the Indian Politicians.dindooohindoo



Anonymous said...

Hmm.... What does this remind you of today?

1. High domestic consumption.
2. Massive borrowing from abroad.
3. Unsustainable currency levels.
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/latin-american-debt-crisis

Riaz Haq said...

US tops UAE in remittances to India: RBI paper

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/us-tops-uae-in-remittances-to-india-rbi-paper/articleshow/92964862.cms

Remittances from the Indian diaspora in the US surged through the Covid months that saw a contraction in inflows from the traditional Gulf stronghold as jobs, contact-intensive and outdoor-oriented, were lost in West Asia through the initial shutdowns.

Research by central bank economists showed that the US surpassed the UAE as the top source country, accounting for 23% of total remittances in 2020-21. "This corroborates with the World Bank report (2021) citing an economic recovery.

"A lot of the remittance flow has got to do with the jobs and economic conditions in the host countries," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda NSE 3.80 %. "Remittances from the Gulf region were almost nil because of the slowdown and many had to face job losses. But in the US where most Indians are employed in IT and other white-collar jobs, the employment situation was more stable during the pandemic restrictions.

As the top recipient, India was expected to be one of the worst affected - with a projected decline of 23% - as the host country basket of the diaspora was vulnerable to the twin effects of economic slowdown and slump in oil prices. Defying the early projections, however, India remained the top recipient, accounting for 12% of total global remittances, recording a marginal decline of 0.2% in 2020 and a growth of 8% in 2021.

Riaz Haq said...

In 2021, over 160,000 #Indians renounced citizenship, highest in past 5 years. 78,000 took #US citizenship. #Australia 23,533, #Canada 21,597, #UK 14,637, #Italy 5,986, #Netherlands 2187, #NewZealand 2643, #Singapore 2516, #Pakistan 41 and #Nepal 10. #Modi https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/in-2021-over-16-lakh-indians-renounced-citizenship/article65658065.ece

The number is the highest in the past five years, U.S. being the country whose citizenship is most sought after
Over 1.6 lakh Indians renounced their citizenship in 2021, highest in the past five years, according to information provided by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday. Over 78,000 Indians acquired U.S. citizenship, the highest among all other countries, by giving up Indian citizenship. India does not allow dual citizenship. As many as 362 Indians living in China also acquired Chinese citizenship.

Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, responding to a question by Fazlur Rehman, said in a written reply that “individuals renounced Indian citizenship for reasons personal to them.”

In 2018, MHA revised Form XXII under Citizenship Rules and included a column on “circumstances/reasons due to which applicant intends to acquire foreign citizenship and renounce Indian citizenship.”

The reply stated that the number of Indians living in Australia who relinquished their citizenship stood at 23,533, Canada- 21,597, U.K.-14,637, Italy-5,986, Netherlands- 2187, New Zealand- 2643, Singapore- 2516, U.S.A.- 78284, Pakistan-41 and Nepal-10.

A reply furnished by the ministry in 2021 said that the number of Indians who gave up citizenship in the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 stood at 1,33,049, 1,34,561, 1,44,017 and 85,248 respectively.

Riaz Haq said...

Big jump in numbers of Indians crossing into US from Canada and Mexico illegally.

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/more-indians-trying-to-enter-the-us-illegally-via-south-america-and-canada/2538682/

The total number of undocumented Indian migrants apprehended at Southwest Land (US-Mexico) border by US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations (OFO) in 2022 FYTD (Oct 2021 to Apr 2022) were 8119 Indian, in 2021 (Oct 2020 till Sep 2021) were 2588, 2020 (Oct 2019 till Sep 2020) were 1120.

In 2022, undocumented Indian migrants surprisingly increased, numbers of undocumented Indian migrants in three months are equal to the number of undocumented Indian migrants in 2021 (October 2020 to September 2021) which is 2588.

On the US Northern Land (US-Canada) Border, the total number of undocumented Indian migrants apprehend at Northern Land Border by US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations (OFO) in 2022 FYTD (Oct 2021 to Apr 2022) were 5700 Indians, where in 2021 (Oct 2020 till Sep 2021) were 2225, 2020 (Oct 2019 till Sep 2020) were 3128.

Anonymous said...

Falling population
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-20-countries-with-the-fastest-declining-populations/

Riaz Haq said...

Remittances Are a Lifeline for Developing Countries With Economic Instability

https://thefintechtimes.com/remittances-are-a-lifeline-for-developing-countries-with-economic-instability/

Remittances sent worldwide have increased 64.3 per cent in the past decade, rising from $420.1billion 10 years’ ago to $653.4billion in the last year, shows research by ACE Money Transfer, the online remittance provider.
---
Global economic growth is expected to slump from 6.1 per cent last year to 3.2 per cent this year — significantly lower than the 4.1 per cent anticipated in January. This is due to rising interest rates and spiralling inflation. This slowdown in growth is expected to hit low-income countries harder.

---

Remittances also play a key role in urban areas, helping drive investment into real estate and infrastructure in developing countries.

Rashid Ashraf, CEO of ACE Money Transfer, says, “Remittances have a massive impact on people’s lives across the world. When times are tough and economies are struggling, this is when remittances are particularly important.

“Around three-quarters of remittances sent globally are used to cover essential things, like putting food on the family’s table and covering medical expenses, school fees or housing expenses. In addition, in times of crises, migrant workers tend to send more money home to cover loss of crops or family emergencies.”

Countries facing significant economic stress at present include Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nigeria and Nepal. Remittances play a key role in supporting the economies of all mentioned countries.

Remittances key to helping Sri Lanka and Nepal’s struggling economies
Sri Lanka in particular has struggled following the pandemic, with its economy having collapsed. The country has been short of cash to pay for vital food and fuel imports and has defaulted on its debt.

Remittances are a key pillar of Sri Lanka’s economy, reaching $7.1billion in the past year, up from $6.7billion the previous year. Remittances in Sri Lanka support economic growth, reduce the burden on social security payments and help alleviate poverty. Increases in remittances could significantly aid Sri Lanka’s economic recovery.

-----
How remittances can help moderate inflation in Pakistan and Nigeria
Pakistan and Nigeria are two other countries facing economic difficulties where remittances can play a key role in their recoveries. Both countries have been struggling with the effects of surging inflation this year.

Pakistan’s currency has devalued 28 per cent compared to the US dollar so far this year, fuelling surges in the prices of vital imported goods such as fuel, cooking oil and grains.

This has made remittances to Pakistan, which have risen 26 per cent to a record $33billion in the past year, even more important. Remittances are a key source of foreign currency for Pakistan and play a significant role in supporting its currency. This is in turn can help control inflation and the price of essential goods and services in the country.

---
The role of remittances in strengthening resilient economies like the Philippines
Remittances can also play an important role in countries where the economy has remained resilient. This includes the Philippines’ economy, which has continued to show rapid expansion this year despite global headwinds.

An important stabilising factor in its economy has been remittances, which have reached a record high of $34.9billion in the past year. Remittances in the Philippines are important in supporting domestic consumer spending, which has driven the country’s economic growth.

Remittances are a crucial source of foreign capital for many developing countries. Unlike other flows of private capital, remittances have remained resilient throughout the pandemic. As economics across the world continue to recover, remittances continue to play a vital role in helping countries build resilience and drive economic growth.

Riaz Haq said...

Germany is hoping to combat its shortage of skilled workers with a new ‘opportunity card’.

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/09/06/skilled-workers-are-in-demand-as-germany-tackles-labour-shortage-with-new-points-based-vis

The ‘chancenkarte’ will use a points system to enable workers with required skills to come to Germany more easily.

It is part of a strategy proposed by Labour Minister Hubertus Heil to address the country’s labour shortages, which is due to be presented to the government this autumn.


Every year, quotas will be set depending on which industries need workers. Three out of four of the following criteria must also be met to apply for the scheme:

A degree or vocational training recognised by Germany
Three years’ professional experience
Language skills or a previous stay in Germany
Under 35 years old
Currently, most non-EU citizens need to have a job offer before they can relocate to Germany. A visa for job seekers already exists, but the 'chancenkarte' is expected to make it easier and faster for people looking to find work in Germany.

Citizens of certain countries with visa agreements can already enter Germany for 90 days visa-free but are only permitted to take up short-term employment.

The opportunity card will allow people to come and look for a job or apprenticeship while in the country rather than applying from abroad. Applicants must be able to prove they can afford to pay their living expenses in the mean time.

The exact details of the scheme are yet to be formalised.

Why does Germany need to attract skilled workers?
This year, the shortage of skilled workers in Germany has risen to an all time high. Earlier this year, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found 1.74 million vacant positions throughout the country.

In July, staff shortages affected almost half of all companies surveyed by Munich-based research institute IFO, forcing them to slow down their operations.

Riaz Haq said...

From #Singapore to #Thailand, #Asia courts talent for post-#COVID #economic boost. Battle for high-skill workers is not just an #Asian phenomenon, but a global one. #UK has launched a new system called High Potential Individual visa for university grads.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/From-Singapore-to-Thailand-Asia-courts-talent-for-post-COVID-boost

TOKYO/SINGAPORE/BANGKOK -- During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Singapore tightly closed its borders. While many countries did the same, it was a sharp shock to the system for a city-state that had thrived as a hub for travel and as a magnet for foreign workers.

As some foreign nationals left, and entries were largely halted, Singapore's population dropped by 4.1% over the year through June 2021, to 5.45 million.

The latest data released on Sept. 27, however, shows nearly as swift a turnaround, thanks to a gradual lifting of restrictions. The population rebounded by 3.4% to 5.63 million, largely driven by workers in sectors like construction and shipyards -- the unsung labor that keeps the economy going.

Now, Singapore hopes to attract more highly skilled professionals with expertise and ideas that could jolt growth in the post-COVID era. "This is an age where talent makes all the difference to a nation's success," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual National Day Rally speech on Aug. 21, days before his government announced a new type of visa designed to lure such people. "We need to focus on attracting and retaining top talent, in the same way we focus on attracting and retaining investments."

The city-state is far from the only place that covets high-flyers. From Thailand to Taiwan, a competition is heating up to entice the best of the best, and to fill hiring gaps with people equipped to excel in today's pandemic-altered workplace.

Innovative sectors like digital technology and biotechnology are especially hungry for talent.

Singapore's latest carrot is called the Overseas Networks and Expertise (ONE) Pass, a new visa for high-skill professionals who earn at least 30,000 Singapore dollars ($20,800) a month. The program will allow people with these visas to stay at least five years and work at multiple organizations.

Thailand, meanwhile, began taking applications on Sept. 1 for a new visa that lets global professionals stay in the country for 10 years. The government hopes to bring in 1 million foreign nationals with the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa, designed for those with skills in targeted sectors such as electric vehicles, biotechnology and defense.

Tourism-oriented Thailand, like Singapore, has been hit hard by travel disruptions. Both also have aging populations. While Singapore is expecting growth in the 3% to 4% range this year, the Asian Development Bank's latest outlook forecasts Thailand's growth rate at 2.9%, far below Indonesia's expected growth of 5.4%, Malaysia's 6% and Vietnam's 6.5%.

Malaysia, for its part, aims to attract wealthy investors with its new Premium Visa Program. The program, which began accepting applications on Saturday, allows people who can deposit 1 million ringgit (about $215,000) in the country and have an annual offshore income of around $100,000 to stay for up to 20 years. During that time, they can invest, run businesses and work.

As part of a broader move to bring in more human resources, Australia recently raised its annual permanent immigration cap to 195,000 for the current fiscal year, from 160,000.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistani migrants in Europe

According to the 2020 International Migrant Stock compiled by UNDESA4, a total of 952,993 Pakistani nationals resided in Europe in 2020. Fifty-eight per cent of them were male and forty-two percent were female. The number of Pakistani nationals in each European country in 2020 is shown in Annex 1, together with gender-disaggregated numbers. UNDESA estimates the number and composition of migrants on the basis of data obtained from population censuses, population registers and national surveys. The dataset provides estimates of the international migrant stock by age, sex and origin for the mid-point (1 July) of each year: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020.

https://migration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/reports/PAK_2021_Migrant%20Presence_Europe.pdf

European Countries Total Migrants Male Female

Denmark 14,318 7,503 6,815
Estonia 261 195 66
Finland 3,134 2,090 1,044
Iceland 94 69 25
Ireland 10,570 6,667 3,903
Latvia 228 204 24
Lithuania 7 3 4
Norway 21,140 10,853 10,287
Sweden 16,597 9,891 6,706
United Kingdom 537,047 282,645 254,402

Greece 8,823 4,435 4,388
Italy 124,800 89,557 35,243
Malta 549 300 249
Portugal 2,217 1,469 748
Slovenia 42 31 11
Spain 63,819 41,074 22,745

Austria 6,097 4,076 2,021
Belgium 13,246 8,143 5,103
France 27,203 16,341 10,862
Germany 79,227 53,993 25,234
Liechtenstein 7 5 2
Luxembourg 279 169 110
Switzerland 5,381 3,304 2,077
The Netherlands 14,104 8,030 6,074

Bulgaria 290 182 108
Hungary 1,055 780 275
Poland 278 257 21
Romania 625 438 187
Russia 726 579 147
Slovakia 122 110 12
The Czech Republic 662 501 161

Riaz Haq said...

Why are women in #China not having more babies despite gov't incentives? With rapidly #aging and declining #population and slowing #economic growth, China’s leaders are asking #women to have three children again, but it's too late. #economy #fertility https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/17/why-are-women-in-china-not-having-more-babies/

Fewer people might mean slower growth in China, which will be felt by the U.S. and beyond.

“They’ve now become, you know, the center of the global manufacturing superhighway and are typically the largest contributor to growth every year,” said Scott Kennedy with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.

Chinese officials often credit the so-called one-child policy for preventing over 400 million births, but some analysts say China’s population would have declined regardless.

“It’s just simply a rule across all countries, that as you urbanize, and as you get a more educated female population that enters the workforce, fertility numbers fall,” Kennedy said.

-------

The number of Chinese workers is already declining; according to the World Bank, in 2001, China had 10 workers to support one retiree.

“In 2020, that was down to five working folks for each retiree and by 2050 it’ll be down to two,” Kennedy said.

He believes China still has time to offset the effects of population decline, including by boosting productivity, increasing the retirement age and lifting restrictions on people from rural areas to freely settle in cities with their families.

“I don’t think the problem has become so severe that demography is destiny, and China is destined to radically slow down and its chances of becoming an economic superpower breaking out of the middle income trap have been dashed,” Kennedy said.

“[But] these are pretty significant challenges.”


------

28-year-old Joy Yu’s parents each had three siblings. As they were growing up in the 1970s, the Chinese government started to limit the number of babies born.

Government statistics show on average a woman in China went from having about three babies in the late 1970s to just one.

Four decades on, China’s leaders are asking women to have three children again, which doesn’t sit well for Yu, an only child.

“For me to give birth to three children, my future husband must be rich enough to make sure I can live well without a job. This is a big challenge,” Yu said.

Last year, China’s population dropped for the first time in six decades by 850,000. That still leaves the country with 1.41 billion people but if the decline continues, there will be multiple impacts on the economy.

China began enforcing birth limits in the late 1970s when the country was poor and there were too many mouths to feed.

In a Chinese propaganda film called the Disturbance of Gan Quan Village, the birth restrictions were justified on economic grounds.

“We should put our energy into getting rich rather than keep having children,” says one woman in the film.

She’s sitting among a group of women picking corn kernels off the cob. “Aren’t we getting poorer with each child we have,” she says. The rest of the group nods in agreement.

Chinese leaders enforced, sometimes brutally, the so-called one-child policy in 1979, just as the country was coming out of the tumultuous Cultural Revolution.

“The post-[Chairman] Mao leadership thought that economic development would be the new basis for the party’s political legitimacy and based on pseudo-scientific and demographic projections, limiting birth to one child per married heterosexual couple,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

There were exceptions. Some ethnic minority groups could have up to three children. People from rural areas could try for a second child if their first-born was not a boy. Later, if both parents had no siblings they could have two children. Starting in 2016, China raised the birth limit for everyone to two children, but there was no sustained baby bump.

Riaz Haq said...

Country’s brain drain situation accelerated in 2022
Official documents showed more than 765,000 educated youth leave country for employment overseas


https://tribune.com.pk/story/2390704/countrys-brain-drain-situation-accelerated-in-2022

According to the official documents from the Bureau of Emigrants, this year 765,000 young people went abroad. The documents also showed that the number of emigrants had risen after registering a fall in two consecutive years, following 625,000 emigrations in 2019.

According to the documents, those who left the country in 2022, included more than 92,000 graduates, 350,000 trained workers and the same number of untrained labourers went abroad. The documents also showed that 736,000 people went to the Gulf states.

The emigrating educated youth included 5,534 engineers, 18,000 associate electrical engineers, 2,500 doctors, 2,000 computer experts, 6,500 accountants, 2,600 agricultural experts, over 900 teachers, 12,000 computer operators, 1,600 nurses and 21,517 technicians. The group of unskilled workers comprised 213,000 drivers.

According to the data, over 730,000 youth went to the Gulf States, nearly 40,000 went to European and other Asian countries. The country-wise break down of the data showed 470,000 Pakistanis headed to Saudi Arabia for employment, 119,000 to UAE, 77,000 to Oman, 51,634 to Qatar and 2,000 to Kuwait.

Also, according to the official documents, 2,000 Pakistanis went to Iraq, 5,000 to Malaysia, 602 to China, 815 to Japan, and 136 to Turkey. The documents also revealed that 478 Pakistan went to Sudan in Africa in search of employment.

The highest number of people emigrating to a European country was 3,160 youth, going to Romania. It was followed by 2,500 to Great Britain, 677 to Spain, 566 to Germany, 497 to Greece, and 292 to Italy. The Bureau of Emigrants also registered 700 people going to the United States.

More than half of those leaving the country were from Punjab. The documents said 424,000 emigrants this year were from Punjab, 206,000 from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa plus 38,000 from newly-merged tribal districts, 54,000 from Sindh, 27,000 from Azad Kashmir, 7,000 from Balochistan and 6,000 from Islamabad.

Riaz Haq said...

Greece boat disaster: A Pakistani father's anguish over his missing son

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-boat-disaster-12-pakistanis-among-survivors-2023-06-17/

KARACHI, Pakistan, June 17 (Reuters) - Shahid Mehmood, a retired Pakistani civil servant, tried his best to persuade his son not to make the trip to Europe in search of a better life.

But 25-year-old Shehryar Sultan was determined to go.

Now, the father fears his son was among those lost in a disastrous boat capsize off Greece on Wednesday in which hundreds of people are thought to have died, among them Pakistanis. The family were praying for him to be recovered alive but by Friday evening had started to lose hope.

Mehmood, 60, said a local travel agent had charged 2.2 million Pakistani rupees ($7,653) for his son's trip, with the promise he would earn well in Europe.

"I tried to stop him; told him to forget the whole thing. But the travel agent had totally brainwashed him, telling him: 'You will only be on the way for two to three days,'" the father said. "My son was gullible, so he went along with them."

He did not name the agent.



Pakistan's economy is suffering record high inflation and an economic slowdown compounded by devastating floods last year.

Mehmood said his son did not have any travel document, or an identity card or passport, but the people who organised the trip flew him off from central city of Faisalabad.

Mehmood said his son stayed two days in Dubai, then six days in Egypt, before boarding a plane to Libya that was so crammed it had people sitting on the floor.

Sultan spent roughly four months in Tripoli before setting out to sea, living in what the father said were squalid conditions. Mehmood said he tried to get the agent to send his son home when he heard about the conditions in Libya, but nothing came of it.

He said he last heard from his son when Sultan got on a boat, which he believes was the doomed vessel.



"He sent a (text) message saying that he was sitting in a boat with around 400- 500 people. And they were expected to be at sea for five or six days," recalled Mehmood.

On Friday, the family was able to confirm that a companion of Sultan was among the dead, said Sultan's cousin, Adnan Iftikhar.

'VERY WRONG'
The death toll from Wednesday's disaster could run to many hundreds as witness accounts suggested that between 400 and 750 people had packed the fishing boat that sank about 50 miles (80 km) from the southern Greek town of Pylos.

Greek authorities have said 104 survivors and 78 bodies of the dead were brought ashore in the immediate aftermath. Hopes were fading of finding any more people alive.

Twelve Pakistanis were among survivors of the boat capsize, the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Saturday, but it did not have numbers for how many Pakistanis died, or their identities.

"My thoughts and prayers are with the bereaved families who lost their loved ones in the unfortunate ferry disaster in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Greece," Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said in a tweet on Saturday.

Most of the people on board the capsized boat were from Egypt, Syria and Pakistan, Greek government officials have said.



"All this is very wrong. The government needs to crack down on all these types of (travel) agents," said Mehmood. "This is cruelty. Sheer cruelty that gives heartache to parents which they will never get over all their lives."



Riaz Haq said...

In missing submersible and migrant disaster, a tale of two Pakistans

https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/06/21/titanic-submersible-greece-migrant-ship-pakistan/

On social media, some Pakistanis pointed to the grim spectacle of compatriots from opposite ends of a great socioeconomic divide disappearing in the watery depths at the same time. Pakistan is in the middle of a devastating economic crisis, with the rate of inflation at a 50-year high, food shortages, energy blackouts and mounting unemployment. The conditions have compelled numerous people, especially among the poor, to seek a better life abroad.

“The desperate situation has led to the mushrooming growth of people smugglers in Pakistan,” wrote Zahid Shahab Ahmed, a senior research fellow at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization in Australia. “In exchange for large sums of money, they offer people transportation, fake documentation and other resources for a swift departure from the country.”

“It is bad enough that the spectacular failure of the government to fulfill its part of the social contract by providing economic security to its citizens drives desperate individuals — even the educated ones — to leave the country,” noted a Monday editorial in Dawn, a Pakistani daily, further lamenting that “an inept, uncaring government has made little effort to crack down on a vast network of human smugglers who fleece desperate individuals and put them on a path strewn with hazards.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared Monday a national day of mourning, while authorities in various parts of the country arrested people suspected of links to human-trafficking networks. “Our thoughts and prayers are with you, and we pray that the departed souls find eternal peace,” the chairman of Pakistan’s Senate, Muhammad Sadiq Sanjrani, said, vowing to take on the people smugglers.

That may be cold comfort to many Pakistanis, who live in what by some measures is South Asia’s most unequal society, one long dominated by influential, quasi-feudal potentates. Sharif himself is a scion of a political dynasty that also has huge business interests.

Riaz Haq said...

Grief shrouds remote Pakistan mountain village after Greece migrant boat tragedy


https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/21/asia/pakistan-greece-boat-tragedy-kashmir-village-intl-hnk/index.html

Bandali, Pakistan-administered Kashmir
CNN

An air of melancholy engulfs the small village of Bandali in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where hopes are fading fast for nearly two dozen residents who went abroad in search of a better life and have since disappeared.

Families fight back tears as they yearn to hear what may have happened to their loved ones – all migrants aboard the boat, reportedly known as the Adriana, an overcrowded fishing trawler that capsized off the coast of Greece last week, killing at least 81 people and leaving hundreds more missing.

In Pakistan, authorities said more than 300 of its nationals died in the tragedy, but did not specify how they received the information. On Thursday, the Federal Investigation Agency of Pakistan said it has confirmed 92 deaths in the incident by collecting DNA samples of family members who reported their loved ones as missing to assist with the identification of victims.

Bandali, population 12,000, is just one of many Pakistani communities reeling from the disaster – about 22 people from this village alone remain unaccounted for, according to residents.

------

Jabbar, 36, paid a human trafficker more than $7,500 in the hope of making it to Italy, traversing thousands of miles across dangerous routes from his home country to give his young daughters a better future, Anwar told CNN. Jabbar left his two daughters in the village while he went ahead with the journey.

Pakistan, a nation of about 220 million, is in the throes of its worst economic crisis in decades. Work is scarce; inflation is soaring; and essentials including food and fuel are increasingly costly.

The precise route Jabbar and his three family members took is unclear. But they arrived in Libya days before boarding the ill-fated boat there, aiming for their final destination: Italy.

Phone conversations between Anwar and Jabbar in the days leading up to the tragedy highlight the grim conditions faced by those making a trip controlled by a lucrative and all too often merciless network of international smugglers.

Riaz Haq said...

Former US President Obama slams Western hypocrisy over migrants

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/former-us-president-obama-slams-western-hypocrisy-over-migrants/2929144

That more attention is being paid to Titanic submersible than migrant boat sinking off Greece is ‘rotten,’ he says
Ahmet Gencturk |

Former US President Barack Obama on Thursday slammed the hypocrisy of Western media concerning migrants and particularly in reference to the recent sinking of a migrant boat off southwestern Greece in which at least 82 people died and hundreds more are feared to have drowned.

The fact that more attention is being paid to a submersible carrying five people that vanished off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada while on a tour of the Titanic’s wreckage than the migrant boat sinking off Greece with up to 700 people on board is “rotten,” he said during an appearance in the Greek capital Athens. He came to participate in the Stavros Niarchos Foundation’s Nostos 2023 conference.

“That's an untenable situation. And, you know, the notion that we can't do something about that is simply not true. We know we can do things for these people," Obama said in reference to the migrant flow to developed countries.

Riaz Haq said...

Why #Indians don't want to be Indian #citizens anymore? More than 1.6 million Indians have renounced their Indian citizenship since 2011, including a whopping 225,620 in 2022 alone, averaging around 618 per day. #Modi #BJP #Hindutva
#chaos #anarchy
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/why-indians-dont-want-to-be-indian-citizens-anymore/articleshow/101418122.cms

"The principal reason why people migrate is economic well being. Everyone wants a better life and their hope is that they would find it in another country," Amit Dasgupta, former Consul-General of India in Sydney, told IANS.

"In sociology, this is referred to as 'the push factor'. You are pushed out to a place which offers better prospects," Dasgupta said.Many Indian students who go for higher studies abroad also end up settling there as these countries provide them better jobs with attractive pay scales.According to the latest Education Ministry data, more than 770,000 Indian students went abroad to study in 2022 -- a six-year high.

Also, many Indian students find it tough to find jobs after returning home, which is why they apply for permanent residency in their country of study.

More than 90 per cent of the students do not wish to come back to India, say estimates.When it comes to India's rich, they want to swim in foreign waters to diversify their fortune, set up alternative residencies, conduct business and pursue a better quality of life even though India continues to be an attractive environment for business activity and corporate growth.

A 2020 Global Wealth Migration Review report said that among many reasons why people make the decision to migrate to other countries is safety of women and children, lifestyle factors like climate and pollution, financial concerns including taxes, better healthcare for families and educational opportunities for children, and to escape oppressive governments.A low passport score of a country can also make individuals emigrate.

A higher passport index ranking ensures one gets better access to travel visa-free to many countries.The Indian passport registered the largest global fall in the Passport Index 2023 -- ranking at 144th position this year with a mobility score of 70.

This means Indians can travel to 21 countries visa-free, and need a visa for 128 countries.In contrast, a Greece or Portugal residency card provides Indians visa-free travel across all Schengen countries.

Riaz Haq said...

Everyone Knew the Migrant Ship Was Doomed. No One Helped. - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/world/europe/greece-migrant-ship.html

Greek authorities claim the doomed migrant ship "was sailing to Italy, and that the migrants did not want to be rescued. But satellite imagery and tracking data" show it "was drifting in a loop for its last 6-1/2 half hours" as passengers called for help.


Satellite imagery, sealed court documents and interviews with survivors suggest that hundreds of deaths were preventable.

Collectively paying as much as $3.5 million to be smuggled to Italy, migrants crammed into the Adriana in what survivors recalled was a hellish class system: Pakistanis at the bottom; women and children in the middle; and Syrians, Palestinians and Egyptians at the top.

An extra $50 or so could earn someone a spot on the deck. For some, that turned out to be the difference between life and death.

Many of the passengers, at least 350, came from Pakistan, the Pakistani government said. Most were in the lower decks and the ship’s hold. Of them, 12 survived.

The women and young children went down with the ship.


---------

Haseeb ur-Rehman, 20, a motorcycle mechanic from the Pakistan-administrated Kashmir, felt he had to leave home to help his family survive. Together with three friends, he paid $8,000 and left for Libya.

He was one of the few Pakistanis who managed to snatch a spot on deck.

The journey, if all went well, would take three days.

As early as the second day, survivors recalled, the engine started breaking down.


-----------------

Unrest spread as it became clear that the captain, who was spending most of his time on a satellite phone, had lost his way.

When Pakistanis pushed toward the upper deck, Egyptian men working with the captain beat them, often with a belt, according to testimony. Those men, some of whom are among the nine arrested in Greece, emerged as enforcers of discipline.



Ahmed Ezzat, 26, from the Nile Delta, was among them. He is accused of smuggling people and causing the shipwreck. In an interview, his brother, Islam Ezzat, said that Ahmed disappeared from their village in mid-May and re-emerged in Libya weeks later. He said a smuggler had sent someone to the family home to collect 140,000 Egyptian pounds, or $4,500, the standard fee for a spot on the Adriana.

Islam said he did not believe Ahmed had been involved in the smuggling because he had paid the fee. He said the family was cooperating with the Egyptian authorities. Ahmed, like the others who have been charged, has pleaded not guilty.