Monday, February 7, 2022

How Many Hours of Work Buys an iPhone 12 in India, Pakistan?

It takes an Indian minimum wage worker twice as long to afford an Apple iPhone 12 as his Pakistani counterpart. A minimum wage Pakistani has to work 1,642 hours, or about 10 months of work, to buy an iPhone 12, according to Bloomberg News. An Indian minimum worker, on the other hand, must work nearly twice as long, a total of 3,254 hours, to buy it.  It takes 1,791 hours in Indonesia and 2,045 hours in Egypt. Assuming a 40-hour work-week and two weeks of vacation, there are 2,000 hours of work in a year. Given these figures, it can be safely assumed that very few minimum wage workers in the developing world can afford to buy an iPhone 12.

Hours of Work Needed to Buy iPhone 12. Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reported the following on February 4 as follows: "Based on minimum wage levels, a new report from Grover.com estimates it would take 6,639 hours for a Venezuelan to earn enough for the prized smartphone and 3,254 hours for an Indian. Chinese people must work 680 hours to make enough money". 

Minimum Wage in Selected Countries. Source: ILO via The Business Standard

International Labor Organization's Global Wage Report 2020-21 reported that the minimum wage in Pakistan is $491 a month in purchasing power parity, the highest in South Asia. India's minimum wage is $215 a month, less than half of Pakistan's. 

India is one of the most unequal countries in the world, according to the World Inequality Report 2022. There is rising poverty and hunger. Nearly 230 million middle class Indians have slipped below the poverty line, constituting a 15 to 20% increase in poverty. India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. Meanwhile, the wealth of Indian billionaires jumped by 35% during the pandemic. 

Neoliberal policies in emerging markets like India have spurred economic growth in last few decades. However, the gains from this rapid growth have been heavily skewed in favor of the rich. The rich have gotten richer while the poor have languished. The average per capita income in India has tripled in recent decades but the minimum dietary intake has fallen. According to the World Food Program, a quarter of the world's undernourished people live in India. The COVID19 pandemic has further widened the gap between the rich and poor. 

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan Among World's Largest Food Producers

Naya Pakistan Housing Program

Food in Pakistan 2nd Cheapest in the World

Indian Economy Grew Just 0.2% Annually in Last Two Years

Pakistan to Become World's 6th Largest Cement Producer by 2030

Has Bangladesh Really Left India and Pakistan Behind?

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 7th Largest Consumer Market

Coronavirus, Lives and Livelihoods in Pakistan

Vast Majority of Pakistanis Support Imran Khan's Handling of Covid19 Crisis

Pakistani-American Woman Featured in Netflix Documentary "Pandemic"

Incomes of Poorest Pakistanis Growing Faster Than Their Richest Counterparts

Can Pakistan Effectively Respond to Coronavirus Outbreak? 

How Grim is Pakistan's Social Sector Progress?

Pakistan's Sehat Card Health Insurance Program

Trump Picks Muslim-American to Lead Vaccine Effort

COVID Lockdown Decimates India's Middle Class

Pakistan Child Health Indicators

Pakistan's Balance of Payments Crisis

How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits

India's Unemployment and Hunger Crises"

PTI Triumphs Over Corrupt Dynastic Political Parties

Strikingly Similar Narratives of Donald Trump and Nawaz Sharif

Nawaz Sharif's Report Card

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel



20 comments:

Mo said...

I keep saying that India’s and BD’ economic indicators related to income of its population are seriously inflated and skewed and in case of Pakistan they may not cover significant economic activity. We, no doubt have a balance of payment problems but that is due to historic structural issues and warrants a separate discussion. We also have issues with poverty but the type of pervasive and abject poverty prevalent in India and BD is not that obvious in Pakistan.

Moiz said...

Should that be seen as a problem ? Why is the minimum wage higher in Pakistan when both the total as well as per capita GDP is higher in India ? Does this play a role in attracting or not attracting FDI ?

Riaz Haq said...

Moiz: "Should that be seen as a problem ? Why is the minimum wage higher in Pakistan when both the total as well as per capita GDP is higher in India ? Does this play a role in attracting or not attracting FDI"

Rich save & invest while the poor & middle class consume. Lower inequality in Pakistan shows in its abysmal domestic savings & #investment rate of around 10% of GDP. It shows in Pakistan's lower economic growth rate compared to Bangladesh and India.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/04/income-inequality-elite-capture-in.html

RK Singh said...

Riaz bhai, Indians buys 44 Crores Smartphones per year, co pared to 4 crores in Pakistan, which is about twice the rate as Pakistan, compared population wise.
Indians buy 30 Lakh cars per year- Pakistanis buy 2 lakh cars.
Please do not get into India-Pakistan comparisons. India is miles ahead.

Riaz Haq said...

RK: "Please do not get into India-Pakistan comparisons. India is miles ahead"

You are delusional.

You don't understand the simple fact that an average Indian working at minimum wage is miserable. India fares worse than Pakistan on international induces of hunger, poverty and unemployment. The fact is that India has been devastated by Modi's poor handling of the COVID pandemic.No wonder Indians are so unhappy, as reflected in its low ranking on world happiness index.

https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html

And you wildly exaggerate the numbers like cars and smartphone sales.

See below:

According to Counterpoint Research, smartphone shipments are estimated to reach 173 million (17 crore, not 44 crore that you claim) in 2021, a ~14% increase from the 2020 figure. Buoyed by an improved economic environment, the demand for smartphones in 2021 will be driven by elevated consumer spending.


https://www.ibef.org/blogs/indian-smartphone-market-to-reach-a-record-173-million-units-in-2021


A record 2.9 million passenger cars and commercial vehicles were sold in India in 2020. This figure then fell by roughly 0.9 million units from the previous year. With a population of around 1.4 billion people, the addressable market for vehicle sales is more than twice as big as that of South Korea.Jan 14, 2022

https://www.statista.com/statistics/265958/vehicle-sales-in-india/

Anonymous said...

BS compare salaries of labour in both countries on jobsites.

Pakistan doesn't save and doesn't invest.

Slow growth.

On top of that both at a state and personal level borrows money to fund consumption. Result 22 IMF bailouts not even a single company comparable to Tier 2 Indian conglomerates like Mahindra and Godrej.Not a single year where international begging has not taken place!!

Relies on FDI for basic infrastructure telecom etc this FDI becomes a steady stream of dollar transfers to foreign investors.There is a reason India discourages FDI in key infrastructure projects its Telecom,Freeways Mines etc are in Indian hands.
This is true also of Japan S Korea China etc. almost no FDI in infrastructure.

Basically a basket case.And an extremely arrogant one at that.situation is completely hopeless..

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "compare salaries of labour in both countries on jobsites"

What jobs? A few IT jobs can't make up for mass unemployment in India.

India has serious unemployment and hunger crises.

Even before the COVID19 pandemic, India's labor participation rate was around 43%, lower than its neighbors'. Now it has slipped further to about 40%. Meanwhile, the Indian government has reported an 8.4% jump in economic growth in the July-to-September period compared with a contraction of 7.4% for the same period a year earlier. This raises the following questions: Has India had jobless growth? Or its GDP figures are fudged? If the Indian economy fails to deliver for the common man, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi step up his anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric to maintain his popularity among Hindus?

https://www.riazhaq.com/2021/12/india-in-crisis-unemployment-and-hunger.html

India ranks 94th among 107 nations ranked by World Hunger Index in 2020. Other South Asians have fared better: Pakistan (88), Nepal (73), Bangladesh (75), Sri Lanka (64) and Myanmar (78) – and only Afghanistan has fared worse at 99th place. The COVID19 pandemic has worsened India's hunger and malnutrition. Tens of thousands of Indian children were forced to go to sleep on an empty stomach as the daily wage workers lost their livelihood and Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the South Asian nation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan opted for "smart lockdown" that reduced the impact on daily wage earners. China, the place where COVID19 virus first emerged, is among 17 countries with the lowest level of hunger.

Riaz Haq said...

How India affords a falling LPR
by Mahesh Vyas

https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20211220172959&msec=676#:~:text=Evidently%2C%20the%20fall%20in%20labour,30.1%20per%20cent%20in%202018.

There should be a limit to the unemployment rate rising or the labour force participation rate falling. Since employment in India is largely informal in nature and wages are quite low, people cannot afford to remain unemployed or choose not be employed by not being a part of the labour market for long. Informal jobs imply no compulsory savings and low wages imply no practical savings. If people cannot save then not working would imply that they will not be able to meet the minimum daily expenses required to keep body and soul together.

Only around 20 per cent of the employed have salaried jobs. These are the only ones who can be expected to have regular savings. Over 50 per cent are self-employed and the rest are daily wage labourer. The median monthly household income in India was around Rs.15,000 and consumption expenditure was around Rs.11,000 in June 2021 according to CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey. The headroom for savings, in absolute terms, for half the population is thus too small to permit them the luxury of remaining away from the labour markets over an extended period of time.

People in India just cannot afford to remain unemployed. It could leave a large section of the population vulnerable to hunger and therefore compulsions should drive them to work.

This understanding explained the unemployment rate of around 4 per cent till recently when income and savings rates were much lower. But, unemployment is now much higher at around 7 to 8 per cent and the labour participation rate has fallen dramatically in the past few years from well over 46 per cent in 2016 to just over 40 per cent in 2021. India’s labour force participation rate is now among the worst in the world. How could this have happened without widespread hunger and misery?

We try and explain this mystery and in the process also present a new measure of vulnerability. Our approach is fairly simple. We move the unit of compulsion and vulnerability from the individual to the household.

It is the household as a whole that faces compulsion and needs to overcome its vulnerabilities. For survival, a household requires that at least one of its members should be working. But, it is not similarly necessary for more than one member to be employed.

We find that the fall in the labour participation rate since 2016 has been accompanied with a fall in the proportion of households where more than one person is employed. Evidently, the fall in labour participation rate has largely been the result of the additional person employed in a typical household losing a job.

Saba Rehman said...

Interesting statistics Riaz. Just wondering if the affordability and market share share of these phones from apple match.

Riaz Haq said...

SR: "Interesting statistics Riaz. Just wondering if the affordability and market share share of these phones from apple match."

These stats are meant to show that very few people in South Asia can afford to buy an iPhone 12! Even fewer in India!! But even if a couple of percent of Indians buy it, it still adds up to millions of iPhone 12s!

Riaz Haq said...

State of
Global Hiring
Report 2021

https://f.hubspotusercontent30.net/hubfs/19498232/State%20of%20hiring%20report%202021/State%20of%20Hiring%20Report%202021.pdf

Salaries are rising fastest in 
 Mexico (57%), Canada (38%), 
 Pakistan (27%), and Argentina (21%) 
 for jobs in marketing, sales, and product.

India 8%, Philippines 7% & Russia 4%

----------------

Top three countries where people hired through Deel were located:

1.Philippines 2. India 3. Pakistan

---------------

Top 3 roles hired through deel:

1. Software engineer 2. Virtual assistant 3. Custom Support Executive


------

State of Global Hiring
Report 2021


Global hiring has never been more popular
between pandemic-related office closures,
fierce talent competition, and a bevy of online
tools enabling collaboration and reducing
hiring complications. But where is it popular,
and for what roles? What countries are hiring
more than ever, and from where? What’s
happening to wages as demand increases?

Using data pulled from more than 100,000 work contracts from 

over 150 countries, along with 500,000 third-party data points, 

a new report from global hiring and payroll company Deel gives a
breakdown of what’s happening within the global job landscape.
Trends are tracked over six months—from July 2021 through December 2021.

Riaz Haq said...

What’s the Average Salary in Pakistan in 2022?

https://biz30.timedoctor.com/average-salary-in-pakistan/







The average salary in Pakistan is 81,800 PKR (Pakistani Rupee) per month, or around USD 498 according to the exchange rates in August 2021.

The Pakistan average is significantly lower than the US average (USD 7,900) but comparable to India (USD 430), Ukraine (USD 858), and the Philippines (USD 884). It’s one of the many reasons why Pakistan is a viable alternative to these popular outsourcing destinations.

However, you’ll need a more comprehensive analysis to understand the total expenditure on a Pakistani employee.

In this article, we’ll share vital figures and comparisons related to the average salary in Pakistan. We’ll also explore the country’s payroll rules and top reasons to outsource there.

Average Salary in Pakistan: Key Figures
The average salary figure for a country is the sum of the salaries of the working population divided by the total number of employees. It may also include benefits such as housing, transport allowance, insurance, etc., on top of the employee’s basic salary.

The average salary is usually a good indicator of the typical income of a working citizen in the country.

Here are some key salary figures for Pakistan according to Salary Explorer, a salary comparison website:

The average remuneration in Pakistan may vary between 20,700 PKR per month (average minimum salary) and 365,000 PKR per month (maximum average). Please remember that this is an average salary range, and the actual maximum salary may be higher.

The median salary in Pakistan is 76,900 PKR per month.

If we sort the employee salaries in Pakistan in ascending or descending order, the median represents the central point in the distribution. In other words, half the Pakistani employees earn more than 76,900 PKR per month, while the other half earn less.

These national average salary figures may give you a general estimate and help compare expenditure on employee salaries among different countries.

But it won’t help you determine the exact remuneration for each employee in your company.

For that, you’ll need to consider other factors like

The type of industry.
Years of experience and qualification of the employee.
The kind of work: entry level, professional, etc.
The mode of work: full-time, part-time, remote, etc.
The region where you are operating.
The cost of living in the country.
So let’s take a more comprehensive look at the salary information in Pakistan.

A. Average Salary by Industry
The average salary in a country may vary significantly with the type of industry.

Pakistan is known for its cotton, textile, and agriculture exports, and these industries have a significant share in the country’s GDP. Due to this reason, the manufacturing sector usually employs a large portion of the Pakistani workforce.

Here’s an industry-wise breakdown of the average salaries in Pakistan:

Industry Average Monthly Salary
Energy 73,600 PKR
Information Technology 82,100 PKR
Healthcare 122,000 PKR
Real Estate 92,600 PKR
Media / Broadcasting 75,200 PKR
Telecommunication 72,100 PKR
Source: salaryexplorer.com

B. Average Salary by Region
While the capital city of Islamabad is the administrative center of the country, Karachi and Lahore are the major commercial hubs in Pakistan.

The average employee salary in the country depends on which city you’re operating in.

Here’s the salary report for major Pakistani cities:

City Average Monthly Salary
Karachi 88,300 PKR
Lahore 86,800 PKR
Islamabad 76,400 PKR
Faisalabad 85,400 PKR
Source: salaryexplorer.com

C. Salary Variations by Education
As a general rule of thumb, a Pakistani employee with higher educational degrees gets a higher pay scale than their peers with a lesser degree for the same type of work.

But how does the pay scale change with the education level?

Riaz Haq said...

Riaz Haq has left a new comment on your post "India in Crisis: Unemployment and Hunger Persist After Waves of COVID":

Earning Rs 25,000 monthly puts one in India's top 10%: Inequality report
Salaried employees who file income taxes are relatively better off, says study that recommends an urban employment scheme.


https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/earning-rs-25-000-monthly-puts-one-in-india-s-top-10-inequality-report-122051901283_1.html

An Indian making Rs 3 lakh a year would be placed in the top 10 per cent of the country’s wage earners. The data is part of The State of Inequality in India report prepared by the India arm of a global competitiveness initiative, the Institute for Competitiveness.

Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister released it on Wednesday. The report recommended a scheme for the urban jobless and universal basic income as means to reduce inequality. The nature of one's work may make a difference to income shows a closer look at the numbers in ...

--------------------

If You Earn Rs 25,000 Per Month, You're Among India's Top 10% Income Earners

https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/if-you-earn-rs-25000-per-month-you-are-among-indias-top-10-income-earners-570330.html

The State of Inequality in India report prepared by the India arm of a global competitiveness initiative, the Institute for Competitiveness, sheds light on the state of gross inequality in the country. Ninety per cent of Indians do not earn even Rs 25,000 per month.

This highlights the failure of the trickle-down approach to economic growth.


Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister released it on Wednesday.


The report gives a comprehensive overview of the state of inequality in the country by looking at various indicators like income profile, labour market dynamics, health, education, and household amenities.

The report mooted an urban jobs scheme and universal basic income as a means to reduce inequality in the country.

Gaping income disparity
Extrapolation of the income data from Periodic Labour Force Survey 2019-20 has shown that a monthly salary of Rs 25,000 is already amongst the top 10% of total incomes earned, pointing towards some levels of income disparity, the report said.

It further highlighted that the average monthly salary of regular salaried, wage earners in July-September 2019 amounted to Rs 13,912 for rural males and Rs 19,194 for urban males. Employed females in rural parts earned Rs 12,090 in the same period while females in urban India earned an average Rs 15,031.

India’s income profile is outlined by a growing disparity between those who lie on the top end of the earning pyramid and those on the bottom, highlighting the failure of the trickle-down approach to economic growth.

Top 1% earn nearly thrice as much as the bottom 10%
According to the Annual Report of the PLFS 2019- 20, the annual cumulative wages came to be around Rs 18,69,91,00,000, out of which the top 1 per cent earned nearly Rs 1,27,48,00,000, and the bottom 10 per cent accounted for Rs 32,10,00,000 indicating that the top 1 per cent earns almost thrice as much as the bottom 10 per cent.


Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of the pyramid held approximately 22% of the total income earned across the three-time periods. The growth rate of the bottom 50% has been at 3.9% from 2017-18 to 2019-20, while the top 10% has grown by 8.1%.

“This highlights the disparity between the income groups and the disproportionate rate of growth among these tiers. Additionally, the top 1% grew by almost 15% between 2017- 18 to 2019-20, whereas the bottom 10% registered a close to 1% fall,” the report highlighted.

In terms of workforce share, nearly 15 per cent of the entire workforce earns less than Rs 50,000 (less than Rs 5,000 a month), in both years, exacerbating the experiences of poverty and economic inequality.

Riaz Haq said...

What’s the Average Salary in Pakistan in 2022?

https://biz30.timedoctor.com/average-salary-in-pakistan/







The average salary in Pakistan is 81,800 PKR (Pakistani Rupee) per month, or around USD 498 according to the exchange rates in August 2021.

The Pakistan average is significantly lower than the US average (USD 7,900) but comparable to India (USD 430), Ukraine (USD 858), and the Philippines (USD 884). It’s one of the many reasons why Pakistan is a viable alternative to these popular outsourcing destinations.

However, you’ll need a more comprehensive analysis to understand the total expenditure on a Pakistani employee.

In this article, we’ll share vital figures and comparisons related to the average salary in Pakistan. We’ll also explore the country’s payroll rules and top reasons to outsource there.

Average Salary in Pakistan: Key Figures
The average salary figure for a country is the sum of the salaries of the working population divided by the total number of employees. It may also include benefits such as housing, transport allowance, insurance, etc., on top of the employee’s basic salary.

The average salary is usually a good indicator of the typical income of a working citizen in the country.

Here are some key salary figures for Pakistan according to Salary Explorer, a salary comparison website:

The average remuneration in Pakistan may vary between 20,700 PKR per month (average minimum salary) and 365,000 PKR per month (maximum average). Please remember that this is an average salary range, and the actual maximum salary may be higher.

The median salary in Pakistan is 76,900 PKR per month.

If we sort the employee salaries in Pakistan in ascending or descending order, the median represents the central point in the distribution. In other words, half the Pakistani employees earn more than 76,900 PKR per month, while the other half earn less.

These national average salary figures may give you a general estimate and help compare expenditure on employee salaries among different countries.

But it won’t help you determine the exact remuneration for each employee in your company.

For that, you’ll need to consider other factors like

The type of industry.
Years of experience and qualification of the employee.
The kind of work: entry level, professional, etc.
The mode of work: full-time, part-time, remote, etc.
The region where you are operating.
The cost of living in the country.
So let’s take a more comprehensive look at the salary information in Pakistan.

A. Average Salary by Industry
The average salary in a country may vary significantly with the type of industry.

Pakistan is known for its cotton, textile, and agriculture exports, and these industries have a significant share in the country’s GDP. Due to this reason, the manufacturing sector usually employs a large portion of the Pakistani workforce.

Here’s an industry-wise breakdown of the average salaries in Pakistan:

Industry Average Monthly Salary
Energy 73,600 PKR
Information Technology 82,100 PKR
Healthcare 122,000 PKR
Real Estate 92,600 PKR
Media / Broadcasting 75,200 PKR
Telecommunication 72,100 PKR
Source: salaryexplorer.com

B. Average Salary by Region
While the capital city of Islamabad is the administrative center of the country, Karachi and Lahore are the major commercial hubs in Pakistan.

The average employee salary in the country depends on which city you’re operating in.

Here’s the salary report for major Pakistani cities:

City Average Monthly Salary
Karachi 88,300 PKR
Lahore 86,800 PKR
Islamabad 76,400 PKR
Faisalabad 85,400 PKR
Source: salaryexplorer.com

C. Salary Variations by Education
As a general rule of thumb, a Pakistani employee with higher educational degrees gets a higher pay scale than their peers with a lesser degree for the same type of work.

But how does the pay scale change with the education level?

Riaz Haq said...

Tim Cook is bullish on India being the new China for Apple. These 3 charts show there's a long way to go.


https://www.businessinsider.com/3-charts-show-apples-risks-and-opportunities-in-india-2023-4

India has been a somewhat elusive market for Apple. Cook has been "optimistic" about the country for some time but government regulation and COVID-19 have slowed the company's plans for a physical presence.

India has strict rules around foreign entities doing business. Its government has become more liberal in letting in foreign retailers but there was, nonetheless, "a mandate that 30% of the sourcing should be done locally," Prachir Singh, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told Insider.

When the government relaxed this clause slightly in 2018, this finally allowed Apple to start planning for a physical store — but development paused due to the COVID-19 outbreak, he added.

This first store comes 14 years after Apple first opened in China, and Cook has sometimes compared the two markets.

"I see a lot of similarities to where China was several years ago. And so I'm very, very bullish and very, very optimistic about India," Cook told investors on an earnings call in 2017.

Is he right? We pulled together three charts breaking down Apple's risk and opportunity in India.

Android phones remain the devices of choice for the Indian population, thanks to a wide range of choice and how cheap they can be. Apple devices remain the preserve of a minority — likely the country's ultra wealthy.

The gap between the two systems is dramatic compared to wealthier markets such as the US and the UK.

In 2022, Apple beat out Android to claim more than half of the smartphone market for the first time in the US, according to previous data from Counterpoint.

In the same year, Apple only took 6% of the market share in India compared to Android's 94%.

The chart above shows Apple's growth in China over the years. It looks small compared to Android and other operating systems, but that growth is impressive considering how many homegrown Chinese phone-makers it's up against. Huawei and Xiaomi in particular boast loyal consumers in their home market.

Apple has increased iOS device sales over the years to claim 17% market share from rivals, per Counterpoint Research's data.

Riaz Haq said...

Tim Cook is bullish on India being the new China for Apple. These 3 charts show there's a long way to go.


https://www.businessinsider.com/3-charts-show-apples-risks-and-opportunities-in-india-2023-4


That apparently small market share accounts for a disproportionate size of Apple's overall business. Greater China brought in 19% of Apple's revenue for its fiscal full-year 2022, per the firm's financials, making it the firm's third-biggest region behind the US and Europe.

For Cook, India could offer similar tantalizing growth.

Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research, told Insider the Indian market presented an opportunity for Apple to target tens of millions of smartphone sales every year, increasing the 6 million units it currently sells.

"Comparatively, Apple sells more than 50 million units annually in markets such as China and USA. So, India has the potential to reach that scale from a domestic demand perspective in the coming years," he said.

There is a major area where China differs from India: how much its citizens have to spend.

Not only does China boast more billionaires than India, but the country also has a much bigger growing middle class.

Our chart shows wealth distribution by region — anyone in the top 1% is a US dollar millionaire. India has a much larger proportion of its population in the lower percentiles of wealth. China has a higher concentration of wealthier citizens.

As noted by analysts at Credit Suisse who compiled this data for 2022, India does have "significant" numbers of citizens in the upper echelons of wealth.

But, overall, Indian citizens have less disposable income than their counterparts in China, the US, or Europe, per World Bank data.

They have less cash to spend on pricey gadgets — and they have historically been even more expensive in India.

Apple's products have been available online in India for years, but are more expensive due to import fees and taxes. In 2022, the iPhone SE 2022 sold for a minimum of Rs 43,900, around $534, in India compared to around $380, around Rs 32,000, in the US, per CNBC.

All of that suggests growth will be slow. Pricing may fall as Apple ramps up Indian manufacturing, and Indians are becoming increasingly willing to pay more for their phones.


"There was an increase of 18% in average selling price for the first 2 months of 2023 compared to the previous year," Counterpoint's Pathak said. "In 2022, the share of premium segment smartphones (>INR 30,000 or around $360) has crossed the 10% mark for the first time, reaching 11%."

Pathak added that financing schemes could also encourage Indians to buy iPhones.

Riaz Haq said...

#India’s population boom could help growth—but it must solve its #unemployment problem. #Indians' discretionary spending is much lower than #China's or even #Indonesia's. India’s wage earners often have more mouths to feed given low female labor-force participation & large families

https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-population-boom-is-an-opportunityand-a-threat-68633728?st=ayvrmh7mtrrtqgg


India’s population should reach about 1.429 billion by mid-2023, slightly higher than China’s 1.426 billion people, according to a new estimate from the United Nations. According to Pew Research, people under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India’s population—at a time when the U.S. and China are rapidly aging.

However, the rosy comparisons stop there. While India was the fastest-growing of the five largest world economies in 2022, real spending power still lies largely in the hands of a lucky few. India’s gross domestic product per capita was just $2,257 in 2021 against China’s $12,556 according to the World Bank. The scope for discretionary spending is much more limited than in China or even Indonesia, according to HSBC. India’s wage earners often have more mouths to feed, the bank says, given low female labor-force participation and large family sizes.


Even so, consumption rather than investment disproportionately drives growth. And high unemployment remains an enormous challenge, largely because India’s private sector remains cautious about investing in the formal economy.

The unemployment rate was 7.8% in March 2023, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent think tank in Mumbai. That rate has remained at around 8% for most of the past four years. And that is particularly concerning, given India’s very low labor-force participation rate—at only about 40% according to official data.

Education is also a challenge. Leaving aside those from the country’s top engineering and management schools, Indian college graduates often struggle to find jobs. Last year, business advisory Wheebox found that only 47% of male graduates it tested passed its National Employability Test. Fifty-three percent of female graduates passed.

More manufacturing jobs and increasing female labor-force participation would help. Mahesh Vyas, the chief executive of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, says India needs to create an environment that encourages large-scale private-sector investment—something that has been absent for several years now, he says.

In contrast, China has been extraordinarily successful at funneling its enormous population into the global manufacturing labor force. Manufacturing was 27% of China’s economy in 2021 versus just 14% of India’s, according to the World Bank. And while New Delhi’s recent policies to boost Indian manufacturing have met with some marked successes, much more is still needed—especially heavier infrastructure investment and labor market reforms.

Time is of the essence. While India looks young now, the nation’s population could peak as early as 2047, according to the U.N.

With the West increasingly leery of China and that nation’s own demographic dividend ebbing, India stands at a crossroads. It will either leverage its enormous human resources to become a superpower—attracting enormous investment inflows in the process—or miss the moment and scuttle its potential

Riaz Haq said...

America Pays a High Price for Low Wages

https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-pays-a-high-price-for-low-wages-d706894d

For decades the U.S. has used wage subsidies to support the country’s lowest-paid workers—a welfare system that keeps the poor down, primarily benefits the wealthy and undermines technological innovation.

In “The Wealth of Nations,” the founding text of free-market economics, Adam Smith took it for granted that workers should be paid enough to cover the living costs of themselves and their dependents. “A man must always live by his work, and his wages must at least be sufficient to maintain him,” wrote Smith. “They must even upon most occasions be somewhat more, otherwise it would be impossible for him to bring up a family, and the race of such workmen could not last beyond the first generation.”

In the last half-century, policy makers of both parties in the U.S. have successfully refuted Adam Smith. It turns out that it is indeed possible to pay wages to workers that are too low for their own maintenance, much less that of their families. This depends on using means-tested welfare programs like the earned-income tax credit (EITC), food stamps and housing vouchers, all of which compensate for wages that are too low for workers to live on.

Since its creation in 1975, the EITC, a federal wage subsidy for low-income workers and their children, has been expanded repeatedly under Democratic and Republican presidents alike. Many states also have their own versions of the EITC. Liberals like the EITC because it reduces absolute poverty, and conservatives like it because it attaches a work requirement to welfare.

But it is a myth that wage subsidies like the EITC “make work pay.” On the contrary, they make taxpayers pay to rescue workers whose work does not pay enough. Nor are such wage subsidies an alternative to welfare. They are welfare in the form of cash rather than in-kind benefits like food stamps or housing vouchers. The term “refundable tax credit” is just a euphemism for redistributing income.

Wage subsidies also entangle eligible workers in the operations of the welfare state and its complex paperwork. It is puzzling that many critics of big government support the EITC, a costly federal welfare program that partly socializes the incomes of millions of American workers and makes their employers reliant on government spending.

We can call the current American labor market system the low-wage/high-welfare model. It is a success from the perspective of employers who get to pay lower wages. It is also a success for some consumers, since lower wages mean lower prices. The losers include taxpayers, the working poor themselves and workers who are not poor but fear poverty. The low-wage model also saps the incentives for technological innovation, because cheap labor so often substitutes for labor-saving machinery.

Riaz Haq said...

India: What the smartphone market tells us about its economy - BBC News


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65491090

According to research firm the International Data Corporation (IDC), 31m smartphones were shipped in India during the first three months of this year.

That was 16% lower than in the same period of 2022 and the lowest first-quarter shipments in four years.

IDC highlighted that the sluggish demand came amid an uncertain economic outlook and as stockpiles of handsets remain high.

It also said that India's overall smartphone market will be flat this year after three quarters in a row of falling sales.

At the same time some analysts have pointed to the growing trend of "premiumisation" - when wealthier consumers move towards more expensive products.

"The premium segment's share almost doubled" in the first three months of this year compared to a year ago, according to Prachir Singh from technology market research firm Counterpoint.

However, as brands like Apple and Samsung benefit from this trend, demand for cheaper handsets made by companies like China's Xiaomi and Realme has been hit by the tough economic environment.

That end of the market is suffering as users take longer to upgrade their handsets, experts say.

The stark contrast between Apple's fortunes and the shrinking market for cheaper devices also reflects an uneven post-pandemic recovery in Asia's third largest economy.

"The K-shaped recovery is not allowing the consumption demand to become broad-based nor helping the wage growth especially of the population belonging to the lower half of the income pyramid," India Ratings and Research said.

"As a result, while there is visible demand for high-end automobiles, mobile phones and other luxury items, demand for items of mass consumption is still subdued," it added.

For example, sales of entry-level scooters were down by almost 20% in April this year, compared to the same month in 2019, before the pandemic hit.

This indicates that lower income customers "were are still hesitant to upgrade," according Manish Raj Singhania, the president of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations.

It also reflects the on-going problems in India's rural economy, which have been worsened by extreme weather events.

Lack of demand in rural areas has also been driving the decline in the consumer goods, like snacks and fizzy drinks, where growth has dropped to single figures after a year and a half of double-digit increases.

Household spending on goods and services, which had grown 20% year on year in March 2022, has also slowed sharply this year.

That came as India's consumers have been squeezed by rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation.

Overall, the country's economic growth slowed to 4.1% for the first three months of 2023, the lowest growth for a year, official figures show.

Riaz Haq said...

Its (Apple's)iPhone price far exceeds the $269 Indian smartphone average.

By Peter Cohen

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2023/04/25/apples-46-revenue-pop-in-india-wont-reverse-tech-giants-shrinking-top-line/?sh=1e3894e83039

Apple’s iPhone prices in India remain between 1.2 and six times higher than the average smartphone price in the country. For example, on April 25 its high end iPhone 14 Pro Max lists for $1,562 while one of its lowest-priced versions — the iPhone 5S 16GB goes for $308, according to Mysmartprice.

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How much is India slowing down? With 650 million smartphone users it is the second largest market behind China. Yet mobile Internet growth has stalled. As of last October, India had 790 million wireless broadband subscribers — a mere 1 million more than in 2021, according to the BBC. The number of new smartphones sold fell 10% to 151 million units after “scorching double digit growth” between 2016 and 2020.


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Price is the primary factor Indian consumers use to choose a smartphone. With rising prices, demand has fallen.

In 2022, the average smartphone price rose a whopping 47% to $269 — while 80% of smartphones in India sell for under $245, according to market researcher IDC. Until 2020, Indian consumers bought a new smartphone every 14 to 16 months. By 2023, that figure had risen to about 22 months, noted IDC.

With so many Indian citizens living in poverty and vendors failing to adapt to the requirements of the Indian market — e.g., most apps and services are in English which inhibits Internet adoption in rural India — smartphone makers must rethink their products, BBC reported.

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Apple’s revenue is declining. CEO Tim Cook hopes that after 25 years in the enormous Indian market, the tech giant can win enough of its revenues to accelerate its top line.

Apple’s market share has remained in the low single digits (now 3.7%) because its competitors deliver Indian customers a superior value proposition — better apps, longer battery life, and superior after-sales service at a much lower price.

Apple’s fortunes in India have taken a turn for the better. The company’s revenue in India soared nearly 50% to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Yet Apple still faces considerable challenges in gaining a significant share of the Indian market. That’s because it has been trying to force-fit its U.S. iPhone business strategy to India, according to Apple in China and India, a case I co-authored in July 2019.