Thursday, September 22, 2016

Is Pakistan Ready For War With India?

Are Pakistanis willing to fight for their country if attacked by India? To answer this question, let's look at a 2015 survey by WIN/Gallup International that asked people in 64 countries if they would be willing to fight for their country.

Pakistan's Willingness to Fight: 

The Gallup survey found 89% of Pakistanis answered in the affirmative, a much higher percentage than the world average of 61%. By contrast, it showed 75% of Indians ready to fight for their country. The results ranked Pakistan 3rd and India 10th among 64 countries surveyed.

Source: WIN/Gallup International

Only 11% of the respondents in Japan, the only nation to have suffered the atomic bombing of its two major cities in the second world war, said they are willing to fight for their country. Though higher than Japan, most Europeans who have seen the horrors of wars are among the least willing to fight for their countries.

There has been a lot of bellicose rhetoric coming out from the Hindu Nationalist government and its compliant Indian media to "teach Pakistan a lesson". It's a clear indication that they continue to suffer from disease described by Congress leader Sashi Tharoor as "India's Israel envy".

If Modi's India takes leave of its senses and decides to launch strikes against Pakistan, the Indian people could suffer the same horrible fate that fell upon the residents of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

There should be no doubt in New Delhi that Pakistan will respond forcefully to any provocation against it.  Pakistan will not hesitate to escalate if Modi's India persists in its war path.

Below, I am reproducing a 2014 post titled "India's Israel Envy: What if Modi Attacks Pakistan":


Newly-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi government's rhetoric about "jaw-breaking" (munh tod) policy toward Pakistan is the latest manifestation of a disease described by Indian diplomat Sashi Tharoor as "India's Israel envy".


India's Israel Envy:

India's Israel envy is reinforced by the Hindu Nationalists over-estimating their country's strength while under-estimating Pakistan's. It's aided by India's western allies' belief that Pakistan can not fight a conventional war with india and its only option to defend itself would be to quickly escalate the conflict into a full scale nuclear war.

Indian MP Mani Shankar Aiyar has summed up India's war rhetoric against Pakistan in a recent Op Ed as follows:

(Indian Defense Minister) Arun Jaitley thumps his chest and proclaims that we have given the Pakis a "jaw-breaking reply" (munh tod jawab). Oh yeah? The Pakistanis are still there - with their jaw quite intact and a nuclear arsenal nestling in their pockets. (Indian Home Minister) Rajnath Singh adds that the Pakis had best understand that "a new era has dawned". How? Is retaliatory fire a BJP innovation? Or is it that we have we ceased being peace-loving and become a war-mongering nation? And (Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi thunders that his guns will do the talking (boli nahin, goli). Yes - and for how long?

India's Delusions:

Indians, particularly Hindu Nationalists, have become victims of their own hype as illustrated by Times of India's US correspondent who checked into the veracity of claimed achievements of Indians in America and found such claims to be highly exaggerated: "On Monday, the Indian government itself consecrated the oft-circulated fiction as fact in Parliament, possibly laying itself open to a breach of privilege. By relaying to Rajya Sabha members (as reported in The Times of India) a host of unsubstantiated and inflated figures about Indian professionals in US, the government also made a laughing stock of itself." The Times of India's Chidanand Rajghatta ended up debunking all of the inflated claims about the number of Indian physicians, NASA scientists and Microsoft engineers in America.

Similarly, a US GAO investigation found that India's IT exports to the United States are exaggerated by as much as 20 times. The biggest source of discrepancy that GAO found had to do with India including temporary workers' salaries in the United States. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

Since the end of the Cold War, the West has been hyping  India's  economic growth to persuade the developing world that democracy and capitalism offer a superior alternative to rapid development through state guided capitalism under an authoritarian regime---a system that has worked well in Asia for countries like the Asian Tigers and China.  This has further fooled Hindu Nationalists into accepting such hype as real. It ignores the basic fact that India is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates. It also discounts the reality that  Indian kids rank near the bottom on international assessment tests like PISA and TIMSS due to the poor quality of education they receive.  The hype has emboldened many Indians, including the BJP leadership, to push neighbors around.

Defense Spending as Percentage of GDP Source: World Indicators


Pakistan's Response:

Pakistan has so far not responded to the Indian rhetoric in kind. It might create an impression that Pakistan is weak and unable to respond to such threats with its conventional force. So let's examine the reality.

Ground War:

In the event of a ground war, Pakistan will most likely follow its "offensive defense" doctrine with its two strike corps pushing deep inside Indian territory. Though Indian military has significant numerical advantage, Pakistan's armor is as strong, if not stronger, than the Indian armor.

Before embarking on further offensive, gains shall be consolidated.  Pakistan is also as strong, if not stronger, in terms of ballistic and cruise missiles inventory and capability, putting all of India within its range.  These missiles are capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads.

India-Pakistan Firepower Comparison Source: GlobalFirepower.com


In 1990 the Central Corps of Reserves was created to fight in the desert sectors, where enemy land offensives are expected. These dual capable formations trained for offensive and holding actions are fully mechanized. The Pakistan Army has ten Corps including the newly formed Strategic Corps. The Army has twenty-six divisions (eight less than India). Two more divisions were raised as Corps reserves for V and XXXI Corps. The Army has two armored divisions, and ten independent armored brigades. Presently one hundred thousand troops are stationed on the Pak-Afghan border to fight terror.

The Special Service Group – SSG - comprises two airborne Brigades, i.e. six battalions. Pakistan Army has 360 helicopters, over two thousand heavy guns, and 3000 APC’s. Its main anti-tank weapons are Tow, Tow Mk II, Bakter Shiken and FGM 148 ATGM. The Army Air Defense Command has S.A- 7 Grail, General Dynamics FIM-92 Stinger, GD FIM Red Eye, and ANZA Mk-I, Mk-II, Mk-III and HQ 2 B surface to air missiles. Radar controlled Oerlikon is the standard Ack Ack weapon system.

The ballistic missile inventory of the Army is substantial. It comprises intermediate range Ghauri III and Shaheen III; medium range Ghauri I and II and Shaheen II, and short range tactical Hatf I- B, Abdali, Ghaznavi, Nasr, Shaheen I and M -11 missiles. All the ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads....some can carry multiple warheads. Nuclear and conventional weapon capable Babur Cruise missile is the new addition to Pakistan’s strategic weapon inventory.  It has stealth features to evade radar to penetrate India's air air-space to hit targets. The number of ballistic missiles and warheads are almost the same as those of India. So there is a parity in nuclear weapons, which is a deterrent.

Tactical missile which can be tipped with miniaturized nuclear warhead is the latest addition to Pakistan's arsenal. It's a battlefield weapon designed to destroy enemy troop concentrations poised against Pakistan.

Air War:

Pakistan has about 900 aircraft compared to India's 1800, giving India 2:1 numerical advantage over Pakistan. India's biggest advantage is in transport aircraft (700 vs 230) while Pakistan has some numerical advantage in two areas: Airborne radars (9 vs 3) and attack helicopters (48 vs 20).

Pakistan Air Force has  over 100 upgraded F-16s and 200 rebuilt Mirage- 3's (for night air defense) and Mirage-5's for the strike role. They can carry nuclear weapons. They have been upgraded with new weapon systems, radars, and avionics. Additionally, the PAF 150 F-7's including 55 latest F-7 PG’s. Manufacture of 150 JF 17 Thunder fighters (jointly designed) is underway at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra. The JF-17 Thunder is a 4th generation fly by wire multi-role fighter aircraft. Eight are already in PAF service. An order has been placed with China for the purchase of 36 JF-10, a Mach 2.3 -5th generation multi-role fighter, comparable in performance to the Su-30 Mk-1 with the Indian Air Force.

In spite of Indian Air Force's numerical superiority since independence in 1947, Pakistan Air Force has performed well against it in several wars. The PAF pilots have always been among the best trained in the world.

Complimenting the Pakistan Air Force pilots, the legendary US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager who broke the sound barrier, wrote in his biography "The Right Stuff": "This Air Force (the PAF), is second to none". He continued: "The  (1971) air war lasted two weeks and the Pakistanis scored a three-to-one kill ratio, knocking out 102 Russian-made Indian jets and losing thirty-four airplanes of their own. I'm certain about the figures because I went out several times a day in a chopper and counted the wrecks below." "They were really good, aggressive dogfighters and proficient in gunnery and air combat tactics. I was damned impressed. Those guys just lived and breathed flying. "

 In 1965, Roy Meloni of the ABC reported: "Pakistan claims to have destroyed something like 1/3rd the Indian Air Force, and foreign observers, who are in a position to know say that Pakistani pilots have claimed even higher kills than this; but the Pakistani Air Force are being scrupulously honest in evaluating these claims. They are crediting Pakistan Air Force only those killings that can be checked from other sources."


Indian Media Cann't Stop Praising Pakistan Air... by zemtv

Naval War:

Of the three branches of the military, India's advantage over Pakistan is the greatest in naval strength. Pakistan has just 84 sea-going vessels of various kinds versus India's 184.

Pakistan Navy can still inflict substantial damage on the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy has 17 submarines. Pakistan Navy has ten, some are brand new and equipped with AIP. Indian Navy has 28 war ships, Pakistan Navy has eleven.

As seen in the past wars, India will attempt a naval blockade of Pakistan. Here's how MIT's Christopher Clary discusses in his doctoral thesis the Indian Navy's ability to repeat a blockade of Pakistan again:

"Most analyses do not account adequately for how difficult it would be for the (Indian) navy to have a substantial impact in a short period of time. Establishing even a partial blockade takes time, and it takes even more time for that blockade to cause shortages on land that are noticeable. As the British strategist Julian Corbett noted in 1911, "it is almost impossible that a war can be decided by naval action alone. Unaided, naval pressure can only work by a process of exhaustion. Its effects must always be slow…. ". Meanwhile, over the last decade, Pakistan has increased its ability to resist a blockade. In addition to the main commercial port of Karachi, Pakistan has opened up new ports further west in Ormara and Gwadar and built road infrastructure to distribute goods from those ports to Pakistan's heartland. To close off these ports to neutral shipping could prove particularly difficult since Gwadar and the edge of Pakistani waters are very close to the Gulf of Oman, host to the international shipping lanes for vessels exiting the Persian Gulf. A loose blockade far from shore would minimize risks from Pakistan's land-based countermeasures but also increase risks of creating a political incident with neutral vessels."

Summary:

The chances of India prevailing over Pakistan in a conventional war now are very remote at best. Any advantage that India seeks over Pakistan would require it to pay a very heavy price in terms of massive destruction of India's industry, economy and infrastructure that would set India back many decades.

In the event that the India-Pakistan war spirals out of control and escalates into a full-scale nuclear confrontation, the entire region, including China, would suffer irreparable damage. Even a limited nuclear exchange would devastate food production around the world, according to International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, as reported in the media. It would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people and effectively end human civilization as we know it.

I hope that better sense will prevail in New Delhi and India's BJP government will desists from any military adventurism against Pakistan. The consequences of any miscalculation by Narendra Modi will be horrible, not just for both the countries, but the entire humanity.

Here's a video discussion on this and other current topics:


India-Pakistan Tensions; End of TUQ Dharna; Honors for Malala; Ebola Threat from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Here's an interview of former President Musharraf on an Indian TV channel:

 
Parvez Musharraf blasts Modi in an Indian Talk... by zemtv

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

India Teaching Young Students Akhand Bharat 

Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi

India's War Myths

India-Pakistan Military Balance

Pakistan Army Capabilities

Modi's Pakistan Policy

India's Israel Envy

Can India Do a Lebanon in Pakistan?

15 comments:

Mayraj said...

Modi who has revealed psychopathic traits just Indira also did in her conduct, means Pakistan needs to be vigilant.

Riaz Haq said...

Mayraj: " Modi who has revealed psychopathic traits just Indira also did in her conduct, means Pakistan needs to be vigilant."

Field Marshal Manekshaw said Indira's India had 50:1 advantage over Pakistan in East Pakistan; Modi doesn't have that today.


"About the 5th day of the (1971) conflict in (East Pakistan)...everything had gone wrong (for India); the (Indian) Navy had lost the Khukri; Our (India) Air Force has lost a lot of aircraft on the ground; my (Indian Army's) advances in Bangladesh were halted......ThePakistan Army in East Pakistan fought very gallantly but they had no chance; they were a thousand miles away from their base; I had 8 or 9 months of preparation; I had almost 50:1 advantage; they had no chance but they fought very gallantly."

http://www.riazhaq.com/2016/09/performance-of-pakistan-armed-forces-in.html


Mayraj said...

Modi is not rational. He is a psycho. Look how he handles opposition/dissent. No decency. So stupid not realizing now that they have done it have let opposition know okay to do it also.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan military prepares for a possible #India attack. #F16s flights, landing on Motorway, airspace part closure

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistan-military-prepares-for-a-possible-indian-attack/2016/09/22/def9eaea-80d4-11e6-9578-558cc125c7ba_story.html

Military officials are calling it a routine exercise, but the thunderous spectacle of Pakistani fighter jets touching down on a major highway Wednesday and Thursday, with commercial flights suspended and traffic blocked for hours, has fueled public speculation that something much more ominous is afoot.

The display of military readiness, which included a late-night jet flyover Thursday above this capital city, has come amid an unusually tense showdown with India, Pakistan’s nuclear-armed rival, following a militant attack Sunday that killed 18 Indian soldiers in the disputed border region of Kashmir. The air exercise led to the closure of commercial airspace over several regions of the country and triggered a sudden drop in the nation’s stock market.

Indian officials have accused Pakistan of sending the armed attackers across the de facto border into the Indian portion of Kashmir. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under public pressure to retaliate for Sunday’s assault, vowed that those behind the “despicable attack” would not go unpunished. So far, though, his government has taken no action.

Pakistani officials have strongly denied the charges, and its military leaders have declared that they are prepared to defend Pakistani territory from any attack by India, and also to launch a “counter-offensive” in case of an Indian strike. The two neighboring countries have been adversaries for decades and have fought four wars.

On Thursday, Indian naval officials issued a high alert for coastal areas after school children claimed to have seen four men moving “suspiciously” near a naval facility near the city of Mumbai, according to the Press Trust of India. Schools and some public buildings in the area were shut while a manhunt was conducted, and security was tightened at other coastal facilities.

In New York, meanwhile, Pakistan and Indian officials have carried on a parallel war of words at the U.N. General Assembly. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif delivered a strident speech Wednesday, denouncing what he called ongoing Indian repression against unarmed protesters in Kashmir.

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Shahid Latif, a former deputy air force chief, said it was important to remind India of Pakistan’s military and nuclear strength as a deterrent to any impulsive act. He said the air force now has upgraded F-16s and JF-17 Thunder fighter planes.

“India is very frustrated and it could do something rash, such as launching surgical strikes,” he said. “Our forces are well prepared to counter any Indian attack, our air force is doing the exercises and the motorway is also being used for that.” If India attacks, he said, “our military command knows what it has to do.”

Pakistani officials said that on Wednesday and Thursday, Pakistani fighter planes landed and took off repeatedly at several points along the six-lane highway linking Islamabad with the eastern city of Lahore, near the Indian border. Highway officials said they were informed only shortly before each landing, and that they then diverted traffic to other roads.

They said the fighter jets also landed Wednesday on another six-lane motorway that connects Islamabad to the western city of Peshawar to Islamabad. They said flights from Islamabad to the northern areas of Gilgit, Chitral and Skardu were suspended and will remain so for the next several days, with local airports being used by the air force.


Anonymous said...

In war the main thing is who will be the last man standing? It hardly depends upon numbers and toys. Therfore the matter has to be analysed from that perspective.

Riaz Haq said...

Pak Army will defend every inch of #Pakistan: Gen Raheel Sharif. #India #terrorism #war #Kashmir #Modi

http://www.dawn.com/news/1285619/army-will-defend-every-inch-of-pakistan-gen-raheel

Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif on Friday said the Army will defend "each and every inch" of Pakistan "no matter what the cost", an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement said.

The Army chief, addressing officers at the National Counter-Terrorism Centre near Kharian, said that Pakistan's armed forces "have the capability to counter the complete threat spectrum".

Gen Raheel said that Pakistan had, despite being a victim of terrorism for over a decade, been able to turn the tide against terrorism due to the nation's resilience and the professionalism of its security forces.

The COAS on his visit to the NCTC inaugurated state-of-the-art upgradations to the centre's infrastructure allowing it accommodate the growing demand of foreign armies and Pakistan's own law enforcement agencies to train alongside the Pakistan Army.

The addition of the new facilities have made the NCTC one of the best counter-terrorism training facilities among contemporary armies, ISPR claims.

So far, 231,000 troops of the armed forces, 3,483 police officers and civil armed forces men have been trained at the NCTC, Lt Gen Umar Farooq Durrani, Commander of the Strike Corps, briefed the army chief.

He added that five joint exercises have been conducted at the centre with China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Turkey.

The Army chief's strongly-worded statement comes at a time when regional tensions are soaring as Pakistan and India face off at the 71st United Nations General Assembly in New York over the Kashmir issue.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his address to the UN maintained that Pakistan wants peace with India but it is "not possible without resolving the Kashmir issue". The premier urged the UN to demilitarise Jammu and Kashmir and called for steps to implement UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir.

India, exercising its Right of Reply, levelled serious allegations against Pakistan in its rebuttal, terming it a 'terrorist state'.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russian troops arrive in #Pakistan for 1st-ever joint drill

https://www.rt.com/news/360384-russia-pakistan-joint-exercise/


Russian troops have arrived in Pakistan on Friday to take part in two-week military exercise, a first in the two countries’ modern history. Moscow and Islamabad were on opposite sides during the Cold War.
Around 70 Russian soldiers and officers along with some 130 Pakistani counterparts are taking part in the war games called Friendship 2016, which kick-start on Saturday. The name is a symbolical reference to the old Cold War tensions between Moscow and Islamabad, which the two capitals are now trying to overcome.

On Friday, an Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane delivered the troops to Pakistan from their home base in southern Russia.

The exercise is to take place in a mountainous area in the eastern Punjab province. Both countries have long experience of counterinsurgency operations in this difficult terrain, which they want to share with each other.

The exercise was first announced in January and is a signal that “Moscow and Islamabad are interested in deepening military-to-military relations,” Pakistan's ambassador to Moscow Qazi Khalilullah told TASS.

“This obviously indicates a desire on both sides to broaden defense and military-technical cooperation,” he said.

The Friendship 2016 drill is going ahead despite speculation that they may be canceled, which surfaced after tensions between Pakistan and India escalated in the wake of the September 18 attack on Indian troops stationed in Uri, a town in the disputed province of Kashmir.

Moscow informed New Delhi of the scheduled joint exercise with Pakistan and is certain that they should not concern India, considering that they are conducted far from the disputed territories, Zamir Kabulov, the chief or Russian Foreign Ministry's Middle East department told RIA Novosti.

Russian military cooperation with Pakistan has been gaining pace over the past few years, making a turn from the past, when Islamabad was a key supporter of the Taliban insurgency in Soviet-occupied Afghanistan.

In 2014, Moscow lifted a longstanding ban on sale of arms to Pakistan. Last year the two countries signed a deal on four Russian Mil Mi-35M attack helicopters, which are meant to replace Pakistan's aging US-made AH-1 Cobras.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan prepares operational plan, selects targets in #India: Report. #Kashmir http://toi.in/9fsf-Z via @TOIWorld

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pakistan-prepares-operational-plan-selects-targets-in-India-Report/articleshow/54477735.cms

Pakistan's armed forces have reportedly selected targets in India in case the latter decides to move first with strikes against the country. In a Geo TV report, it is stated that an operational plan has also been prepared by the military establishment to retaliate against any possible offensive from across the border.
Quoting sources placed in the defense establishment, the news report states that targets in 'war-mongering' India have been selected in case of 'aggression or surgical strikes from the enemy.' One such source has said that Pakistan is fully prepared to counter India. "Pakistan is fully prepared to meet any military challenge from India. Our operational plan is ready, quid pro quo targets are finalised and forces have been dedicated."

Another source is quoted as saying that regardless of the nature of developments in the weeks to come, Pakistan forces will remain on high alert. "Whether it is a Cold Start or hot pursuit, we are ready. India is well aware of our capabilities and also knows the fact that despite the Pakistan Army's participation in internal security issues, a military balance is well maintained to meet any challenge from across the border."
The source even went to the extent of saying that 'in case of surgical attack from India, Pakistan would immediately respond for which targets had already been set.'
Tensions between India and Pakistan have spiked since the terror attack on an Indian army base+ in Uri on Sunday. Four terrorists were gunned down but 18 brave soldiers also lost their lives, even as India came out strongly+ to condemn the incident and the entire terror network in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Indian security establishment even provided the government with a variety of punitive but limited actions possible against Pakistan without actually going to war, which range from "surgical strikes" to "cross-border raids" by special forces or ghatak platoons of infantry battalions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also promised+ that perpetrators of the ghastly attack would be brought to justice. These may have played a big role in Pakistan becoming rather jittery.
Furthermore, there was a report that Indian forces had crossed the Line of Control+ near Uri and eliminated 20 terrorists in a surgical strike. This though was denied by Indian Army sources.

Across the border, military preparations seem to have begun in earnest. Pakistan declared a no-fly zone across some of its northern regions where Pakistan Air Force conducted combat exercises which were later termed 'routine.' On Thursday night, a Pakistani journalist even tweeted that F-16 jets were flying over Islamabad in what may have been an air drill.

Riaz Haq said...

#Kashmir Crisis Poses Major Test for #India’s Leader, Narendra #Modi. #BJP #Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/world/asia/kashmir-india-pakistan-unrest.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0


The situation not only risks economic growth but could also send two nations skidding into a nuclear war.

“It could happen, and it would be catastrophic for both countries,” said Stephen P. Cohen, the author of “Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum.”

India and Pakistan have been locked in a feud — it began nearly 70 years ago with their independence from Britain — mainly over the Himalayan valley called Kashmir. The dispute over its control, which has led to two wars, had appeared to be relatively dormant since 2010 as tourists returned to the scenic region and turnouts in elections were large. That led the Indian government to believe that the turbulence of recent decades might be over, says Omar Abdullah, former chief minister of the northernmost Indian state, Jammu and Kashmir.

That thinking, it now appears, was a mistake.

There were warning signs over the last two years about rising unrest among young people in Indian-administered Kashmir. Small disputes with the Indian security forces stationed in the Kashmir valley often drew enormous crowds very quickly. The killing of a 22-year-old separatist militant named Burhan Muzaffar Wani by Indian security officers in July touched off the latest protests.

“Wani should have served as an alarm bell for the government system,” said Siddharth Varadarajan, editor of The Wire, an online Indian news site. “Why would a young man, instead of taking up engineering, adopt a course that any reasonable person would tell him would end up in death?”

Now the India-controlled section of Kashmir is engulfed in a crisis. Since the shooting, the Indian-controlled area has been shut down, with curfews and strikes forcing the closing of schools, offices and markets.

Mr. Wani’s death incited violent stone-throwing protests that the security forces sought to eradicate by firing birdshot at protesters. The use of the birdshot, or tiny pellets that scatter when fired, has caused thousands to be wounded, many with eye injuries. More than 70 people, including protesters and Indian security forces, have been killed since the violence began.

The question now is whether Mr. Modi can defuse the crisis.

---
People close to the government, nevertheless, have been trying their hand at freelance diplomacy, including the guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. He invited the father of Mr. Wani to his ashram and suggested that the elder Mr. Wani might serve as an intermediary.

“Sri Ravi Shankar expected that I can play some role in bringing peace to Kashmir,” the father, Mohammad Muzafar Wani, said in an interview. “He said, ‘To resolve the problem, with whom should the talks be initiated? With you?’ I told him, ‘No.’”

For Mr. Modi, pressure remains strong to punish Pakistan with some form of military action for the attack on the army base.

Pakistan has talked tough. In a news release on Monday, Gen. Raheel Sharif, the Pakistani Army chief, said that “taking note of a hostile narrative” from India, the armed forces of Pakistan were “fully prepared to respond to the entire spectrum of direct and indirect threat.”

Speaking before the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan said peace between his country and India “cannot be achieved without a resolution to the Kashmir dispute.”

There was another flare-up of violence along the India-controlled Kashmir border with Pakistan on Tuesday night, when Indian troops battled two groups of militants trying to cross from the Pakistani side into India, the Indian Ministry of Defense said in a statement. One Indian soldier was killed in the skirmishes.

Anonymous said...

Scary part is that Indians are incapable of thinking through the scenarios. They are mentally little kids with big tows and might start something that can easily get out of hands.

"Despite their growing brawn, India’s armed forces still lack a brain."
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21707562-india-wise-speak-softly-it-could-do-bigger-stick-guns-and-ghee

G. Ali

Riaz Haq said...

From Economist Magazine:

...there are serious chinks in India’s armour. Much of its weaponry is, in fact, outdated or ill maintained. “Our air defence is in a shocking state,” says Ajai Shukla, a commentator on military affairs. “What’s in place is mostly 1970s vintage, and it may take ten years to install the fancy new gear.” On paper, India’s air force is the world’s fourth largest, with around 2,000 aircraft in service. But an internal report seen in 2014 by IHS Jane’s, a defence publication, revealed that only 60% were typically fit to fly. A report earlier this year by a government accounting agency estimated that the “serviceability” of the 45 MiG 29K jets that are the pride of the Indian navy’s air arm ranged between 16% and 38%. They were intended to fly from the carrier currently under construction, which was ordered more than 15 years ago and was meant to have been launched in 2010. According to the government’s auditors the ship, after some 1,150 modifications, now looks unlikely to sail before 2023.

Such delays are far from unusual. India’s army, for instance, has been seeking a new standard assault rifle since 1982; torn between demands for local production and the temptation of fancy imports, and between doctrines calling for heavier firepower or more versatility, it has flip-flopped ever since. India’s air force has spent 16 years perusing fighter aircraft to replace ageing Soviet-era models. By demanding over-ambitious specifications, bargain prices, hard-to-meet local-content quotas and so on, it has left foreign manufacturers “banging heads against the wall”, in the words of one Indian military analyst. Four years ago France appeared to have clinched a deal to sell 126 of its Rafale fighters. The order has since been whittled to 36, but is at least about to be finalised.

India’s military is also scandal-prone. Corruption has been a problem in the past, and observers rightly wonder how guerrillas manage to penetrate heavily guarded bases repeatedly. Lately the Indian public has been treated to legal battles between generals over promotions, loud disputes over pay and orders for officers to lose weight. In July a military transport plane vanished into the Bay of Bengal with 29 people aboard; no trace of it has been found. In August an Australian newspaper leaked extensive technical details of India’s new French submarines.

The deeper problem with India’s military is structural. The three services are each reasonably competent, say security experts; the trouble is that they function as separate fiefdoms. “No service talks to the others, and the civilians in the Ministry of Defence don’t talk to them,” says Mr Shukla. Bizarrely, there are no military men inside the ministry at all. Like India’s other ministries, defence is run by rotating civil servants and political appointees more focused on ballot boxes than ballistics. “They seem to think a general practitioner can perform surgery,” says Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, who has worked as a consultant for the ministry. Despite their growing brawn, India’s armed forces still lack a brain.

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21707562-india-wise-speak-softly-it-could-do-bigger-stick-guns-and-ghee

Riaz Haq said...

Ex diplomat MK Bhadrakumar on Sharif-Kerry meeting:

While watching various Delhi TV channels tonight on issues surrounding Sunday’s attack on Uri base, one gets the depressing feeling that we are being delusional. What is entirely lacking is the ethical standard that the media should not incite public opinion by feeding it with such patent falsehoods.

We are living in a fool’s paradise, being led up the garden path by a bombastic leadership and led to believe falsely that the international community is rooting for India, that the country’s prestige is soaring sky-high, etc. and, therefore, Pakistan stands ‘isolated’.

In reality, though, the readout of the US State Department on the meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in New York on September 20 should come as an eye-opener. The readout is reproduced below:

Secretary Kerry met Monday with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif to discuss our strong, long-term bilateral partnership and to build upon the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. The Secretary commended the Prime Minister for restoring macroeconomic stability to Pakistan over the last three years and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s cooperation on climate change priorities.

The Secretary reiterated the need for Pakistan to prevent all terrorists from using Pakistani territory as safe havens, while commending recent efforts by Pakistani security forces to counter extremist violence. They also spoke about regional issues, including recent developments with regard to Afghanistan. The Prime Minister and Secretary Kerry expressed strong concern with recent violence in Kashmir — particularly the army base attack — and the need for all sides to reduce tensions.

Secretary Kerry also stressed the need for restraint in nuclear weapons programs. The Secretary praised Pakistan for hosting Afghan refugees for over 40 years and highlighted the importance of continued respect for humanitarian principles.

This is a carefully worded document, drafted by career diplomats with the full knowledge of the intelligence inputs available with the US State Department regarding the attack that took place on Uri base over 36 hours previously on Sunday. Nonetheless, such manifestly effusive sentiments and fulsome praise for Pakistan have been attributed to Kerry.

See the expressions that have been used in the document with great deliberation – “strong, long-term bilateral partnership”; “commended the Prime Minister”; “expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s cooperation”; “commending recent efforts by Pakistani security forces to counter extremist violence”; “praised Pakistan for hosting Afghan refugees for over 40 years”, et al.

Most significantly, the reference to J&K and Uri attack is framed as the shared opinion of Sharif and Kerry – “The Prime Minister and Secretary Kerry expressed strong concern with recent violence in Kashmir — particularly the army base attack — and the need for all sides to reduce tensions.” What does this single stunning sentence imply in plain language, shorn of diplomatic idiom?

One, US is not willing to censure Pakistan;

Two, US shares Pakistan’s “strong concern over recent violence in Kashmir”;

Three, the Uri base attack is to be seen squarely in the context of the 2-month old upheaval in Kashmir Valley; and,

Four, US agrees with Pakistan on the need to reduce tensions (read on the imperative need of India-Pakistan talks).

The point that really makes one shudder is that Kerry does not think this is an act of cross-border terrorism. The Americans seem to have arrived at some conclusions of their own regarding what happened in Uri, which do not tally with our account.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/09/21/why-indian-public-is-delusional-on-pakistan/

Riaz Haq said...

Modi diplomacy faces moment of truth

The report on the arrival of a Russian army contingent to participate in the first-ever military exercises with Pakistan since 1947 will come as a bitter moment of truth for the Narendra Modi government’s disastrous one-dimensional foreign policy course.

Of course, this is a huge topic of far-reaching significance and it deserves a full spectrum analysis separately. Meanwhile, what matters in real time today is that the ballyhoo that Modi boosted India’s influence like at no time in independent history, et al, stands rubbished as empty bluster in front of the national (and regional and international) audience.

The only good part is that Indians can heave a sigh of relief that notwithstanding all the sabre-rattling by such figures in the ruling circles as former RSS spokesman Ram Madhav — ‘tooth-for-jaw’, etc. — there isn’t going to be war between India and Pakistan. It is a comforting thought.

Obviously, Russians do not take seriously the prospect of Indian retaliation on Uri attack. Or else, they wouldn’t have dispatched their soldiers to a potential war zone. With all their military satellites over South Asia, Russians estimate that ‘hawks’ like Madhav are indulging in vacuous rhetoric to appease their constituency of Sangh Parivar and Hindu nationalists.

In political terms, this makes our leaders look the emperor without clothes, farcical and ugly – with nowhere to hide. They speak of ‘tooth-for-jaw’ without meaning a damn thing, making fools out of us.

Second, it is a diplomatic snub insofar as, evidently, Russians do not buy into India’s argument that Uri attack was staged by Pakistan. Third, in strategic terms, Russians signal their intention to move forward with the project to build sinews of a partnership with Pakistan, putting in place building blocks, and Delhi has to learn to live with this reality.

Fourth, in geopolitical terms, Russians signal that if India bandwagons with the US’ pivot to Asia against the backdrop of New Cold War, they will be constrained to respond. Finally, please note that the fortnight-long military exercise will be held in the tribal areas of Pakistan and in Gilgit-Baltistan.

The symbolism is self-evident — plain rejection of Modi government’s policy shift on Kashmir to irrationally stake claims to Gilgit-Baltistan as integral part of India. The Indian protestations over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on the specious plea that the projects partially involve Gilgit-Baltistan become even more untenable.

----

Modi’s aides could have taken one good look at the map to know that inciting unrest in Baluchistan cannot go hand in hand with our projects in Chabahar in Sistan-Baluchistan. Rouhani told Sharif that Tehran will not allow contradictions involving Chabahar and Gwadar. Does Iran have the wherewithal to fulfill the assurance? You bet, it has. If Iranians could keep Mossad-CIA-MI6 at bay effectively through past 3 decades, they must be knowing their job.

By M K Bhadrakumar – September 23, 2016

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/09/23/modi-diplomacy-faces-moment-of-truth/

Swaroop said...

Yes Pakistan is ready for the conventional war after all Pakistan Military is in charge of running the country.

However, Pakistan is not ready for a diplomatic war much of it because of its Military. In fact that war has already been lost internationally.

Riaz Haq said...

Swaroop: " Pakistan is not ready for a diplomatic war much of it because of its Military. In fact that war has already been lost internationally"

Here's ex Indian meeting diplomat MK Bhadrakumar on his fellow Indians " being delusional"


While watching various Delhi TV channels tonight on issues surrounding Sunday’s attack on Uri base, one gets the depressing feeling that we are being delusional. What is entirely lacking is the ethical standard that the media should not incite public opinion by feeding it with such patent falsehoods.

We are living in a fool’s paradise, being led up the garden path by a bombastic leadership and led to believe falsely that the international community is rooting for India, that the country’s prestige is soaring sky-high, etc. and, therefore, Pakistan stands ‘isolated’.

In reality, though, the readout of the US State Department on the meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in New York on September 20 should come as an eye-opener. The readout is reproduced below:

Secretary Kerry met Monday with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif to discuss our strong, long-term bilateral partnership and to build upon the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. The Secretary commended the Prime Minister for restoring macroeconomic stability to Pakistan over the last three years and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s cooperation on climate change priorities.

The Secretary reiterated the need for Pakistan to prevent all terrorists from using Pakistani territory as safe havens, while commending recent efforts by Pakistani security forces to counter extremist violence. They also spoke about regional issues, including recent developments with regard to Afghanistan. The Prime Minister and Secretary Kerry expressed strong concern with recent violence in Kashmir — particularly the army base attack — and the need for all sides to reduce tensions.

Secretary Kerry also stressed the need for restraint in nuclear weapons programs. The Secretary praised Pakistan for hosting Afghan refugees for over 40 years and highlighted the importance of continued respect for humanitarian principles.

This is a carefully worded document, drafted by career diplomats with the full knowledge of the intelligence inputs available with the US State Department regarding the attack that took place on Uri base over 36 hours previously on Sunday. Nonetheless, such manifestly effusive sentiments and fulsome praise for Pakistan have been attributed to Kerry.

See the expressions that have been used in the document with great deliberation – “strong, long-term bilateral partnership”; “commended the Prime Minister”; “expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s cooperation”; “commending recent efforts by Pakistani security forces to counter extremist violence”; “praised Pakistan for hosting Afghan refugees for over 40 years”, et al.

Most significantly, the reference to J&K and Uri attack is framed as the shared opinion of Sharif and Kerry – “The Prime Minister and Secretary Kerry expressed strong concern with recent violence in Kashmir — particularly the army base attack — and the need for all sides to reduce tensions.” What does this single stunning sentence imply in plain language, shorn of diplomatic idiom?

One, US is not willing to censure Pakistan;

Two, US shares Pakistan’s “strong concern over recent violence in Kashmir”;

Three, the Uri base attack is to be seen squarely in the context of the 2-month old upheaval in Kashmir Valley; and,

Four, US agrees with Pakistan on the need to reduce tensions (read on the imperative need of India-Pakistan talks).

The point that really makes one shudder is that Kerry does not think this is an act of cross-border terrorism. The Americans seem to have arrived at some conclusions of their own regarding what happened in Uri, which do not tally with our account.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/09/21/why-indian-public-is-delusional-on-pakistan/