Israel's Submarine Fleet:
Israel has just taken delivery of the 5th of 6 Dolphin II class AIP-equipped submarines built by Germany. More than 225 feet long, the diesel-electric Dolphin II class is part attack submarine, part nuclear strike ship and part commando taxi. Each sub has 10 tubes. Four of these tubes are larger 26-inch tubes—the size is rare for a Western-built submarine—capable of launching small commando teams or firing larger nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The remaining six tubes measure at 21 inches, according to Real Clear Defense.
|Israel's German-built Dolphin Class AIP Sub|
Several German defense ministry officials interviewed by German news magazine Der Spiegel believe that Israel intends for these submarines to carry nuclear weapons. The missiles can also be launched “using a previously secret hydraulic ejection system,” the magazine reported.
Diesel-Electric AIP Vs Nuclear-Powered Subs:
A key requirement for submarines is to be stealthy—and the Dolphin II is indeed very quiet. The trick is in the submarine’s air-independent propulsion fuel cells, which provide power under the surface as the diesel engines—used for running on the surface—rest and recharge. This system is quieter than the nuclear-powered engines on American and Russian submarines, which must constantly circulate engine coolant. Nuclear submarines are virtually unlimited in terms of range, and are better used for deep-water operations. But Israel has no need for nuclear-powered subs when quiet diesel subs can do the same job, according to Real Clear Defense.
Pakistan's AIP Submarine Fleet:
The details of Pakistan's planned submarine fleet are not clear yet. However, Pakistan too is acquiring a fleet of AIP-equipped diesel-electric submarines.
Pakistan Navy operates a fleet of five diesel-electric submarines and three MG110 miniature submarines (SSI). The nucleus of the fleet includes two Agosta-70 and three modern Agosta-90B submarines. Pakistan's third Agosta-90B, the S 139 Hamza, was constructed indigenously and features the DCNS MESMA (Module d'EnergieSous-Marin Autonome) air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. Pakistan retrofitted the two earlier Agosta-90B vessels with the MESMA AIP propulsion system when they underwent overhaul in 2011, according to Nuclear Threat Initiative.
|Model of Chinese-made S20 Sub Ordered by Pakistan|
Pakistan is expanding and modernizing its underwater fleet with 8 additional AIP-equipped submarines ordered from China. Whether the Chinese submarines are the S-20 export derivative of the Type-039A/Type-041 Yuan-class submarine, or a bespoke design, is unclear. But the Yuan has also been mentioned, and according to government officials. If the deal transpires, it will be the largest ever Sino-Pakistani deal. Mansoor Ahmed of Quaid-e-Azam University's Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, believes the submarines will each cost $ 250 million to $325 million.
Mansoor Ahmed told Defense News that AIP-equipped conventional submarines "provide reliable second strike platforms, [and] an assured capability resides with [nuclear-powered attack and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], which are technically very complex and challenging to construct and operate compared to SSKs, and also very capital intensive."
Balance of Terror as Deterrence:
Let's hope that nuclear deterrence works and the world never again sees the use of the growing stockpile of nukes in South Asia, the Middle East or anywhere else. Here's the full video of a recent interview with Pakistan's General Khalid Kidawi on Pakistan 2nd strike capability:
I think senior American analyst and South Asia watcher Stephen Cohen summed up the current situation in South Asia when he said: "The alphabet agencies—ISI, RAW, and so forth—are often the chosen instrument of state policy when there is a conventional (and now a nuclear) balance of power, and the diplomatic route seems barren."
I see little likelihood of full-scale war between India and Pakistan. The best way for the two nuclear armed neighbors to proceed is sustained diplomatic engagement to resolve all outstanding issues including Kashmir. If the diplomatic route remains barren, there will be continuation of covert and proxy wars in the region.
Pakistan's Second Strike Capability
Pakistan's Shaheen 3 Can Hit Deep Inside India and Israel
Pakistan Building Nuclear Submarine?
India's Israel Envy
Pakistan Space Program
Revolution in Military Affairs
Pakistan Defense Production Goes High-Tech
Drones Outrage and Inspire Pakistanis
RMA Status in Pakistan
Cyber Wars in South Asia
Pakistan's Biggest Ever Arms Bazar
Genomics and Biotech Advances in Pakistan
India's Israel Envy: What if Modi Attacks Pakistan
Eating Grass: Pakistan's Nuclear Program
Kerry Challenges Modi With Hard Evidence
Isn't Pakistan has more nuclear arsenal than India and the numbers are further going up? Then how come Pak is threatened by India's "growing" nukes? India has "No First Use" policy on nukes while Pak is ready to battle it out with her tactical nukes. Isn't the very first sentence of the article is foxy?
India has combined threat from China and Pakistan, both nations being defence and strategic partners and both having territorial disputes with India. Any balance of power should weigh India on one side and China-Pak on the other. Any assumption of balance of power with with only Pakistan will grossly undermine India's security. Pakistan can not be equated with India in terms of area, population, economy or defence and hence there can not be balance of power.
The article ends suggesting that covert and proxy wars are a result of lack of diplomatic effort. But Pakistan's proxy war on India using terror is an overt as well as covert state strategy and nothing to do with dialogues and diplomacy.
Singh: " India has "No First Use" policy on nukes while Pak is ready to battle it out with her tactical nukes. Isn't the very first sentence of the article is foxy?"
India's NFU is not worth the paper it's written on. Past track record of India shows it can not be trusted by any of its neighbors, including Pakistan.
Teaching Akhand Bharat and huge arms imports are just the tip of the iceberg of India's ambitions.
Both Israel and Pakistan have decided to field tactical nuclear weapons aboard their small flotillas of diesel-electric submarines. While Pakistan is a declared nuclear power and Israel has opted to pursue a policy of nuclear ambiguity for the past four decades, both nations’ military thinkers echo each other in their frequent referrals to the sea as a source of strategic depth. This shared emphasis stems, in large part, from their growing sense of continental claustrophia. Both countries are territorially shallow, and resulting sentiments of vulnerability have helped shape and sustain already potent senses of embattlement.
Israel’s Naval Nuclear Option
For strategists in Jerusalem, apprehensions over the widening demographic divide between Israel and its more populous Arab neighbors has been compounded by the severe political turmoil and uncertainty in the wider Middle East. In particular, there is growing concern that further waves of upheaval in the Arab world could produce a regional climate more staunchly hostile to Israeli interests. In addition to the potential existential threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran, Israeli planners must also confront a rapidly changing conventional military environment – one in which the shallowness of Israeli territory increasingly acts as a major liability. Whereas in earlier years Israel’s very compactness generated certain operational benefits — by enabling its armed forces to maneuver with fluidity within interior lines – the diffusion of precision guided munitions (PGMs) and precision strike systems amongst Israel’s prospective antagonists has largely negated any such advantage. Hybrid and non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah increasingly have the aptitude to “see deep and shoot deep,” while Iran continues to acquire a bristling array of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel. The Israeli Defense Force’s stationary bases and airfields are thus increasingly exposed to missile attacks. Hezbollah, for instance, is estimated to be sitting on a steadily growing stockpile of more than 40,000 rockets and missiles. In previous conflicts, Israel could rely on its command of the skies as a means of offsetting its numerically superior foes. In the long run though, the difficulties inherent in prosecuting hybrid actors concealed within crowded urban environments, along with the densification of cheaper and more capable anti-aircraft systems, are liable to impede the Israeli Air Force’s freedom of action. In sum, Israel’s continental exiguity acts as a growing constraint on its ability to guarantee the safety of its citizens from both conventional and nuclear attack.
The U.S. military is relying on sub-hunting tech that’s decades old. Meanwhile, the targets they’re trying to find are getting quieter and more invisible by the day.
Submarines are getting quieter, stealthier, and better armed. And that could mean major trouble for the U.S. Navy and its aging fleet of sub-hunters. The tactical balance between the surface warship and the submarine has strategic impact. The submarine is not made for a show of force. Its principal weapon is designed not to damage a ship, but to sink it—rapidly and probably with much loss of life. It’s a sure way to shift the trajectory of any conflict in a more violent direction.
The best deterrent against submarine attack is robust defense—but as little as surface sailors like to discuss it, that defense has seldom been less assured.
Modern diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) are very hard to detect. It’s not that SSKs with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems are much quieter, but they mitigate the SSK’s drawback: lack of speed and endurance on quiet electric power. When the Swedish AIP boat Gotland operated with the U.S. Navy out of San Diego in 2005-07, the Navy’s surface ships turned up all too often in a photo album acquired by the submarine’s mast. The sub was so quiet, that it consistently managed to get within easy torpedo range.
AIP submarines are a high priority in the budgets of nations such as Singapore, Korea and Japan. Russia has struggled with its Lada-class boats, but persisted, and is selling them to China. Sweden, whose Kockums yard developed the AIP technology for Japan’s big 4,100-ton Soryu-class subs, had trouble getting its A26 replacement submarine program started. In an indication of its importance, Saab will buy the Kockums yard back for Sweden from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.
AIP—which uses stored liquid oxygen and fuel to generate power underwater—seems to be here to stay, whether it uses the Swedish-developed Stirling-cycle engine (a 19th-century curiosity, but very efficient) or fuel cells, favored by ThyssenKrupp’s German yards and Russia. Lithium-ion batteries will further increase underwater performance. Kockums advertises another step in invisibility called Ghost (genuine holistic stealth) which, like stealth technology on an airplane, involves the careful blending of hull shapes and rubber-like coatings to make the submarine into a weak sonar target.
Other improvements are making the submarine more elusive and lethal. Masts with high-definition cameras are as clear as direct-vision optics—so the mast needs only to break the surface and make a single sweep to provide a full horizon view. Finmeccanica’s WASS division and Atlas Electronik offer modern all-electric torpedoes with multiple guidance modes, from fiber-optic to wake-homing, and back-breaking influence fuzes that work too often for comfort.
Antisubmarine warfare (ASW) has not stagnated, but it shows signs of disarray. After the end of the Cold War stopped the Soviet Union’s push for quieter submarines, the U.S. scrapped improvements to the P-3 sub-hunting plane and the P-3’s replacement. The carrier-based S-3 Viking went the same way, and the U.K., more recently, retired the Nimrod and canceled its deeply flawed MRA4 replacement sub-hunters. ASW assets and crews have been diverted to reconnaissance missions in overland and littoral wars. The Navy’s strategy for the new Boeing P-8A Poseidon is to get the airframes first, because P-3s are wearing out.
The S-20 SSK was first offered at the IDEX 2013 arms show in the UAE; it is a quiet 2,600 SSK capable of firing cruise missiles and torpedoes, in addition to inserting special forces and mines. Pakistan's Chinese subs are likely to be based off the S-20 design.
On March 31st, Pakistan announced plans to buy eight new Chinese-made submarines. The submarines are likely to be based of the Type 39B Yuan SSK, of which the export version is designated the S-20. The S-20 displaces about 2,300 tons, but air independent propulsion (AIP) is not standard to the submarine. AIP a closed off propulsion system, like a gas compression Stirling engine or fuel cells, that doesn't require a separate oxygen supply It is a must have for modern SSKs, allowing them to stay underwater for up to four weeks without using noisy snorkels to recharge batteries (often SSK batteries have enough charge to last several days at most). Pakistan's S-20s are likely to have AIP since its Agosta 90B submarines already have the technology; the PLAN's 12 Yuan SSKs all have sophisticated AIP systems.
The Type 039C Yuan SSK is the latest Chinese conventional submarine, launched in 2014. It features a redesigned conning tower, as well as better sonar. The Yuan class's AIP system makes it China's most capable conventional submarines.
The significance of the plan is that it Pakistan badly needs to modernize and expand its submarine fleet, especially given rival India's acquisition of domestic, French and Russian conventional and nuclear submarines. Overall, Pakistan's 2015 naval plan calls for twelve submarines. The Pakistani Navy currently operates five French Agosta submarines, with two of its Agosta 70s 40 years old and in need of replacement soon.
The Babur LACM has a range of 750-1000km, and is equipped for both conventional and nuclear attack. It is likely that it will form the basis of a submarine launched LACM, potentially giving Pakistan an underwater second strike nuclear capability.
The other important features of the S-20 purchase stems from its weaponry and its effect on regional balances of power. The S-20 has a standard load of six torpedo tubes, able to fire up to 18 torpedoes and missile canisters, which include the 533mm Yu-6 heavy torpedo, naval mines and 300km range YJ-82 anti-ship missile. Such capabilities could prove quite important in any conventional war scenario in the region. In addition, Pakistan is working to modify its nuclear capable Babur land attack cruise missile for launch from its current Agosta 90B submarines, so the new S-20s would almost certainly also be designed to carry nuclear armed Babur missiles. In addition to being able to launch nuclear strikes from previously inaccessible areas like the Bay of Bengal, an underwater nuclear deterrent would finally give Islamabad a credible second strike capability.
Der Spiegel on German-built Israeli subs to be used for 2nd strike:
Many have wondered for years about the exact capabilities of the submarines Germany exports to Israel. Now, experts in Germany and Israel have confirmed that nuclear-tipped missiles have been deployed on the vessels. And the German government has long known about it. By SPIEGEL
..former top German officials have admitted to the nuclear dimension for the first time. "I assumed from the very beginning that the submarines were supposed to be nuclear-capable," says Hans Rühle, the head of the planning staff at the German Defense Ministry in the late 1980s. Lothar Rühl, a former state secretary in the Defense Ministry, says that he never doubted that "Israel stationed nuclear weapons on the ships." And Wolfgang Ruppelt, the director of arms procurement at the Defense Ministry during the key phase, admits that it was immediately clear to him that the Israelis wanted the ships "as carriers for weapons of the sort that a small country like Israel cannot station on land." Top German officials speaking under the protection of anonymity were even more forthcoming. "From the beginning, the boats were primarily used for the purposes of nuclear capability," says one ministry official with knowledge of the matter.
Insiders say that the Israeli defense technology company Rafael built the missiles for the nuclear weapons option. Apparently it involves a further development of cruise missiles of the Popeye Turbo SLCM type, which are supposed to have a range of around 1,500 kilometers (940 miles) and which could reach Iran with a warhead weighing up to 200 kilograms (440 pounds). The nuclear payload comes from the Negev Desert, where Israel has operated a reactor and an underground plutonium separation plant in Dimona since the 1960s. The question of how developed the Israeli cruise missiles are is a matter of debate. Their development is a complex project, and the missiles' only public manifestation was a single test that the Israelis conducted off the coast of Sri Lanka.
The submarines are the military response to the threat in a region "where there is no mercy for the weak," Defense Minister Ehud Barak says. They are an insurance policy against the Israelis' fundamental fear that "the Arabs could slaughter us tomorrow," as David Ben-Gurion, the founder of the State of Israel, once said. "We shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter," was the lesson Ben-Gurion and others drew from Auschwitz.
Armed with nuclear weapons, the submarines are a signal to any enemy that the Jewish state itself would not be totally defenseless in the event of a nuclear attack, but could strike back with the ultimate weapon of retaliation. The submarines are "a way of guaranteeing that the enemy will not be tempted to strike pre-emptively with non-conventional weapons and get away scot-free," as Israeli Admiral Avraham Botzer puts it.
New Delhi, Aug 20: The recent disaster in the Indian submarine INS Sindhurakshak that perhaps killed all 18 Navy personnel on-board has raised a pertinent question on the Indian Navy's submarine conditions as well as its underwater combat edge. According to a TOI report, currently, India can only deploy 7-8 "aging conventional" submarines against enemy forces. The stark reality is that the Indian Navy is left with only 13 aging diesel-electric submarines - 11 of them over 20 years old. Out of the 13 submarines - 9 Kilo-class of Russian origin and 4 HDW of German-origin - are undergoing reparation to 'extend' their operational lives. The only "face saver" of the Navy seems to be the INS Chakra, the only nuclear-powered submarine, taken on a 10-year lease from Russia last year. But due to international treaties, it is not armed with nuclear-tipped missiles. With its 300-km range Klub-S land-attack cruise missiles, other missiles and advanced torpedoes, the INS Chakra can serve as a deadly hunter-killer' of enemy submarines and warships. Moreover, India has been indecisive to fit Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) in the last two of the six French Scorpene submarines being constructed for over Rs 23,000 crore at Mazagon Docks under "Project-75". The first Scorpene will be delivered only by November 2016. On August 12, the Indian Navy launched its aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, placing India in the fifth rank, after US, Russia, Britain and France, who have the ability to design and build aircraft carriers of 40,000 tonnes and above. With a capacity to deploy over 30 aircraft and helicopters, it is considered to be the biggest aircraft carrier in India. Pakistan Navy Power: Whereas the neighbouring country Pakistan, which is continuously violating ceasefire bilateral agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) since last month, is far more more advanced and well prepared in terms of submarines. Presently, Pakistan is well equipped with five "new conventional" submarines and is considering to get six more 'advanced' vessels from its all-weather friend China. China already flexes its muscles with 47 diesel-electric submarines and eight nuclear-powered submarines. Incidentally, the Pakistan Navy is the first force in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to have submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) in the shape of three French Agosta-90B vessels. The difference: The conventional submarines have to surface every few days to get oxygen to recharge their batteries in contrast with the AIP equipped submarines that can stay submerged for much longer periods to significantly boost their stealth and combat capabilities. OneIndia News
Read more at: http://www.oneindia.com/2013/08/20/india-far-behind-pakistans-powerful-submarines-report-1287237.html
#China vows to deepen maritime security ties with #Pakistan: report http://tribune.com.pk/story/859341/china-vows-to-deepen-maritime-security-ties-with-pakistan-report/ …
BEIJING: China on Thursday vowed to deepen maritime security, anti-terrorism, security and military cooperation with Pakistan to further strengthen their ‘all-weather’ strategic ties.
The “pledge” was made by Chinese Central Military Commission Vice Chairperson General Fan Changlong during his meeting with Pakistan Navy Chief Muhammad Zakaullah in Beijing.
Fan said China hopes to enhance coordination and cooperation with Pakistan on regional security affairs.
“China is willing to deepen cooperation with Pakistan in anti-terrorism, maritime security and military technology,” Fan said.
China together with Pakistan will push for the construction of the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor within the construct of China’s “Belt and Road” initiatives.
Zakaullah said that Pakistan will work with China to deepen logical cooperation between the two armed forces.
Previously, the Pakistan naval chief said that Pakistan Navy and PLA Navy are strengthening their existing maritime cooperation, keeping in mind the changing regional international scenarios.
Yesterday (Wednesday) Zakaullah met with Commander of the PLA (Navy) Admiral Wu Shengli and said that the navies of Pakistan and China have been cooperating for decades.
He said that military cooperation between the two countries is extensive and it covers equipment, personnel exchanges and joint exercises.
Zakaullah said Pakistan strongly supports PLA Navy’s enhanced role in the
ALTHOUGH most Iranians are celebrating their nuclear deal with the P5+1, the framework ‘understanding’, once implemented, will effectively block Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapons capability for the foreseeable future.
After #Iran, #Pakistan? #Irandeal #Nukes http://www.dawn.com/news/1175368
Hardly a week after the Iran deal was announced, the New York Times — which often reflects official US policy — editorially propagated that attention be turned to constraining Pakistan’s nuclear and strategic capabilities. The issue was also covered by other US media.
The NYT arguments, taken from the Indian hymnbook, were not surprising; the timing of the proposal to target Pakistan is significant. If the editorial indeed reflects official US thinking, it would confirm the view of many in Pakistan and the Muslim world that America’s aim is to denuclearise all Islamic countries. With Iran neutralised, Pakistan remains the only nuclear-capable Islamic nation.
The world should be made to understand why Pakistan remains ‘obsessed’ with India.
Pakistan has fought off numerous US attempts, initially to prevent and, after 1998, to retard Pakistan’s nuclear and strategic programmes. Pakistan’s ‘establishment’ is confident that future attempts will fail also. But, it would be a mistake to become complacent.
The US is engaged in a strategic contest with China. It sees India as a ‘strategic partner’ in this Asian power game. India can challenge China effectively only once it has neutralised Pakistan. The Indian lobby in the US is now second in influence only to the Israeli lobby. Thus, unless persuaded otherwise, Washington can be expected to do all that is possible to assist India in neutralising Pakistan’s power.
The following stratagem, used against Iran and others, may be used to restrict Pakistan:
First, concerns about Pakistan’s programmes will be spread through the media and diplomatic channels. Then, Islamabad would be pressed to give assurances and accept constraints ostensibly to assuage these ‘concerns’.
Next, an effort would be made to translate these restraints and restrictions into binding commitments, including through the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, the IAEA and the UN Security Council.
If Pakistan then ‘violates’ such restrictions, it would be subjected to multilateral or unilateral sanctions.
Numerous grounds will be cited to restrain Pakistan. Previously, it was argued that Pakistan was a nuclear proliferator; that its nuclear weapons could be captured by ‘Islamist terrorists’; that the Pakistan Army could turn ‘Islamist’. The new tack, reflected in the editorial, is that:
— Pakistan should no longer be “obsessed” with India, which is now preoccupied with becoming “a regional economic and political power”;
— Pakistan’s nuclear and military deployments against India are destabilising; and;
— Pakistan is descending into chaos.
These motivated assertions need to be refuted effectively. Pakistan’s diplomacy should be actively mobilised for the purpose.
First, the world should be made to understand why Pakistan remains “obsessed” with India. As the editorial itself observes (almost approvingly), Prime Minister Modi has threatened “retaliation” against Pakistan “if Islamic militants carry out a terror attack in India” — irrespective of whether or not the Pakistan government is responsible for this. Given Modi’s aggressive policies in Kashmir and the BJP’s persecution of Indian Muslims, such a “terrorist” attack appears almost inevitable, sooner or later. If Modi’s doctrine is applied, an India-Pakistan conflict also becomes inevitable.
The Indian threat is real “on the ground”. Over 70pc of India’s land, air and sea forces are deployed against Pakistan. India’s capability for aggression against Pakistan is being rapidly enlarged by the $100 billion in advanced weaponry being sold to it including by the US, Europe and Israel. Indian generals have not disavowed their ‘Cold Start’ doctrine envisaging a sudden and massive attack against Pakistan....
#Pakistan is the only #Muslim nuclear state – so why is #Israel's hysteria reserved for #Iran? http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/1.657319 …
Unlike Iran, Pakistan doesn't call for Israel's destruction. But in certain ways, Islamabad poses more of a threat to Israel than Tehran does.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry caused a stir recently, when he said in an interview with Israel’s Channel 10 that Israeli critics of the emerging deal with Iran were guilty of “a lot of hysteria.” He has a point. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the Lausanne deal would “endanger Israel – big time” and “make the world a much more dangerous place.”
Yet in March, Pakistan test-fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, the Shaheen III, which Pakistani officials said can reach Israel. This event was barely noticed in Jerusalem.
In view of the disturbing nuclear developments in Pakistan as well as in North Korea and Russia, the hysteria expressed by prominent Israeli politicians and journalists over the recent draft agreement with Iran is unwarranted. The threat posed to India, South Korea, Poland and the Baltic states from their nuclear-armed neighbors is arguably at least as great as that which Israel is facing from Iran.
Regular warnings are sounded in Israel about the dangers facing the world from nuclear terrorism once Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, but is this not a case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted? The threat of nuclear terrorism has existed since the collapse of the Soviet Union and has grown significantly as Pakistan has cemented its status as a nuclear weapons state.
Indeed, one could argue that Islamabad poses more of a threat to Israel than Tehran does. After all, we cannot be certain that Iran will take the next step and acquire a nuclear weapon, but Pakistan already possesses over 100 nuclear warheads.
It is understandable why this is rarely discussed in Israel: Though Pakistan is the first Muslim state with a nuclear weapons program, it does not call for Israel’s destruction or sponsor terror attacks against Israel. A nuclear Iran, by contrast, would receive cover to step up its hegemonic ambitions in the region and intensify its support for terrorism against the Jewish state.
In addition, Pakistan has taken measures in recent years to strengthen oversight for its nuclear facilities and has dismantled proliferation networks. And even if Pakistan were to disintegrate tomorrow, it would be India, not Israel, that would be first in line to face Islamabad’s nuclear warheads, whereas Israel would certainly believe itself to be the first potential target of a nuclear Iran.
But despite Islamabad’s obsession with India, Pakistani officials have also spoken on occasion about the need to deter Israel. And were Pakistan to disintegrate, it could pose an imminent threat not only to India but also to the Middle East, including Israel.
During his first term in office, U.S. President Barack Obama reportedly told his staff that the possible breakup of Pakistan and the subsequent danger of a scramble for nuclear weapons was his greatest national security concern. Indeed, terrorists have tried on several occasions to assassinate the former president of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf. In such circumstances, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons could be stolen or smuggled out of the country, with the possibility of rogue elements targeting Israel.
Pakistan hopes to revive its naval modernization program through a warship construction deal with China that will also expand Pakistan's shipbuilding industry.
Chinese media reports have outlined a construction program involving six of eight S-20 variants of the Type-039A/Type-041 submarine under negotiation; four "Improved F-22P" frigates equipped with enhanced sensors and weaponry (possibly including the HQ-17 surface-to-air missile developed from the Russian Tor 1/SA-N-9); and six Type-022 Houbei stealth catamaran missile boats, to be built by Pakistan's state-owned shipbuilder Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW).
The reports indicate Type-022 construction may be delayed by the ongoing Azmat fast attack craft building program, but also highlight a significant expansion of KSEW's facilities.
These include a foundry, fabrication facilities to cover all aspects of ship construction, berthing facilities, and two graving docks of 26,000 and 18,000 dead weight tons, spread over 71 acres.
A 7,881-ton ship lift transfer system will be completed next year.
KSEW will expand to occupy facilities vacated by the Navy as it transfers from Karachi to Ormara. The Pakistan Navy Dockyard, which is adjacent to KSEW, already has facilities upgraded by the French during construction of Agosta-90B submarines.
Pakistani officials would not comment on these reports. Repeated attempts to secure comment from the Ministry of Defence Production, KSEW, the Navy and federal politicians connected with defense decision-making bodies were turned away.
The program will follow a Sino-Pakistani agreement for six patrol vessels for Pakistan's Maritime Security Agency agreed to on June 10, with two built by KSEW.
Author, analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad Brian Cloughley said the groundwork laid by the Agosta-90B program that included upgrades to PN Dockyard facilities and the training of some 1,000 civilian technicians greatly facilitated present plans.
However, Trevor Taylor, professorial research fellow, defense, industries and society, at the Royal United Services Institute highlighted the problems KSEW's construction and expansion plans could encounter.
"Experience from around the world shows that it is very easy to be optimistic about the difficulty of naval shipbuilding and the time taken to complete construction and systems integration," he said. "Plans for rapid expansion of warship production are unlikely to proceed on schedule. The coordinated and sustained application of extensive managerial and technical skills is required, and submarines especially have vital safety dimensions."
He highlights the importance of a sustainable program.
"The lesson from the UK and elsewhere is that, once a warship design and build capability is in place, it is best maintained and developed through a planned and steady drumbeat of programs, rather than a rapid expansion of activity for a limited period of years followed by a sudden drop-off in orders. Clearly this requires a consistent stance of support for the industry from political authorities."
Cloughley is optimistic, however, that the extensive Chinese help provided to Pakistan in warship construction, in addition to agreements made during Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visit, "indicate that all types of cooperation will continue and expand."
He said this is related to the burgeoning Indo-US relationship, India's increasingly antagonistic anti-Pakistani rhetoric, and clearer Sino-Indian divisions that mean the Sino-Pakistan "axis of understanding has become more tangible."
Consequently, "KSEW can expect considerable input from such as [China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co]. Money, certainly; but also, and perhaps of more importance, provision of expertise."
#Pakistan posseses nuclear second strike capability - top official | http://GulfNews.com http://bit.ly/1iAAJdP
Islamabad: A former top defence ministry official has claimed that Pakistan possesses nuclear second strike capability against India.
Retired Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, former defence secretary, made the claim at a seminar organised by the Strategic Vision Institute, an Islamabad-based think-tank.
The issue of second strike capability came up in the context of the conventional superiority enjoyed by India and the options for Pakistan.
The second strike provides a military the capability to hit back at an enemy in a situation where its land-based nuclear arsenal is neutralised.
The former defence secretary said in remarks published Thursday that despite the growing conventional imbalance, Pakistan had certain strengths including nuclear parity with India and credible nuclear deterrence.
The nuclear deterrence, he said, had been augmented by the second strike capability, efficient delivery systems and effective command and control system.
President of the think-tank Zafar Iqbal Cheema said Pakistan had improved its second-strike capability.
He said this capability has been augmented by deployment of Hatf-VII/Baber nuclear capable cruise missile that can be launched from aircrafts and conventional submarines.
It is further fortified by air-launched cruise missile in Hatf series, he added.
Technically the best mode of second-strike capability is submarine launched ballistic missile, which neither India nor Pakistan have deployed as yet, Cheema said.
The discussions are being led by Peter R. Lavoy, a longtime intelligence expert on the Pakistani program who is now on the staff of the National Security Council. White House officials declined to comment on the talks ahead of Mr. Sharif’s visit.
But the central element of the proposal, according to other officials and outside experts, would be a relaxation of the strict controls imposed on Pakistan by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a loose affiliation of nations that try to control the proliferation of weapons.
“If Pakistan would take the actions requested by the United States, it would essentially amount to recognition of rehabilitation and would essentially amount to parole,” said George Perkovich, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has maintained contacts with the Pakistani nuclear establishment.
“I think it’s worth a try,” Mr. Perkovich said. “But I have my doubts that the Pakistanis are capable of doing this.”
David Ignatius, a columnist for The Washington Post, first disclosed the exploratory talks in a column a week ago. Since then, several other officials and outside experts have talked in more detail about the effort, although the White House has refused to comment.
But American leverage has been hard to find. Unlike Iran, Pakistan never signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the international agreement that prohibits nations, except for existing declared nuclear states like the United States, from possessing a nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is not alone in that distinction: India and Israel also have not signed.
(North Korea left the treaty two decades ago.)
Ordinarily, any country’s refusal to sign the treaty would preclude American nuclear cooperation. So Pakistani officials remain angry with the American decision to enter an agreement with India in 2005 allowing India to buy civil nuclear technology, even though it remains outside the treaty and put no limits on its nuclear program. Under that agreement, India’s nuclear infrastructure was split with a civilian program that is under international inspection, and a military program that is not.
Pakistani officials have demanded the same arrangement.
That does not appear to be on the table. Instead, the United States is exploring ways to relax restrictions on nuclear-related technology to Pakistan, perhaps with a long-term goal of allowing the country to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which regulates the sale of the technology. That would be largely symbolic: Pakistan manages to import or make what it needs for its nuclear arsenal, and China has already broken ground on a $9.6 billion nuclear power complex in Karachi. Mr. Sharif presided over the ceremony.
This #Pakistan #nuclear missile, Shaheen III with 2,750 Km, can hit targets anywhere in #India. #Nukes #Missiles http://journalobserver.com/2015/12/this-pakistan-missile-can-hit-targets-anywhere-in-india/ …
Pakistan test-fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Friday (Dec 11), the military said, two days after the government confirmed it would resume high-level peace talks with arch-rival India.
The military said it had fired a Shaheen III surface-to-surface ballistic missile which can carry nuclear and conventional warheads within a range of 2,750km.
Shaheen-III has a maximum range of 2,750 kilometers (1, 700 miles).
According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system.
Pakistan became a declared nuclear power in 1998.
The test was witnessed by senior officers from Strategic Plans Division, Strategic Forces, Scientists and Engineers of Strategic Organisations. He said Pakistan desires peaceful co-existence in the region for which nuclear deterrence would further strengthen strategic stability in South Asia.
It may be noted here that the Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II missiles were test-fired in Pakistan a year ago.
India and Pakistan are longtime foes engaged in a regional arms race, stemming from a conflict dating back to Britain's partitioning of its Indian protectorate into what now are India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
#Karachi Shipyard cuts steel on first of 6 MPVs of 600 tons each for #Pakistan #Navy. #China | IHS Jane's 360 http://www.janes.com/article/59973/ksew-cuts-steel-on-pakistan-s-first-mpv-as-new-details-emerge#.VyoBf5NDKoM.twitter …
KSEW has begun building the first of six MPVs for the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency
The vessels will replace the Barkat-class patrol boats that have been in service since the late 1980s
Pakistan's state-owned shipbuilder Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW) has held a steel-cutting ceremony for the first of six maritime patrol vessels (MPVs) on order for the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA).
New details on Pakistan's capability requirements for the vessels have also emerged.
The steel-cutting ceremony was held on 3 May and was attended by senior officials from the Pakistan Navy, KSEW, and China Shipbuilding Trading Company (CSTC).
The MPVs, each displacing 600 tonnes at full load, are being constructed under a transfer-of-technology arrangement signed between KSEW and CSTC in June 2015. KSEW will construct two vessels in Pakistan while the remaining four will be built by CSTC in China.
No further details on the vessels were provided by KSEW in its media release for the ceremony; the company also declined an interview request from IHS Jane's on 4 May, citing confidentiality issues.
However, a tender document on the MPV programme, published by the Pakistani government's planning commission, revealed a requirement for a platform that can attain a maximum speed of 30 kt and a cruising speed of between 12-16 kt. The vessel should also have a standard range of 4,500 n miles at cruising speed, and have an endurance of 21 days at sea without replenishment.
Armament to be fitted onboard includes either a 37 mm or a 30 mm gun as a primary weapon, in addition to mountings for two 12.7 mm machine guns.
An artist's illustration of the MPV, shown at the ceremony, suggests that the PMSA has opted for an automatic stabilised naval gun system as the platform's main weapon.
The illustration also suggests that the platform can accommodate a single helicopter on its flight deck on top of two rigid-hull inflatable boats at the stern section.
Indian Warship INS Khukhri was sunk by a Pakistani sub. Ghazi was sunk in a mine-laying accident, not by enemy. Indian Navy stayed away from Karachi after the sinking of INS Khukri which was the heaviest loss of life in a single incident in the entire war in which 18 Indian Navy officers and 178 sailors perished. Rishi Raj Sood, captain of INS Kirpan - which was accompanying Khukri, fled the scene. “We were hoping that Kirpan, our sister ship would come to rescue us but we saw her sailing away from the area”, Commander Manu Sharma, a survivor of Khukri, has been quoted by Cardozo as having said.
“An early rescue was what everyone hoped for. We thought that at least INS Kirpan would send boat for our rescue, but no rescue boat came from INS Kirpan” Lt Commander SK Basu, who was aboard Khukri and survived the Pakistani attack, told Cardozo. Sood perhaps could have saved the lives of at least some of the 194 people (18 officers and 176 sailors) who died in the attack on Khukri. He continues to defend himself saying that in no way he can disclose the secret behind his questionable action. http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110110/main4.htm
#Saudi delegation in #Jerusalem, #Israel signals broader #MidEast change: @AaronDMiller2 analyzes: http://on.wsj.com/2aroX4T via @WSJPolitics
This is not necessarily a harbinger of strengthening ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But it indicates how Saudi Arabia and the region are changing.
The Saudi delegation was led by a retired general, Anwar Eshki (now chairman of the Middle East Center for Strategic and Legal Studies, a think tank in Jeddah) and included academics and business executives. They met with Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah and attended meetings with Israeli Knesset members. Perhaps most significant, the Saudis met with Dore Gold, the director general of Israel’s Foreign Ministry, and Maj. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, Israel’s coordinator of activities for its territories.
Mr. Gold and Mr. Eshki have met before. And non-governmental meetings between Israelis and Saudis in academic and policy forums are fairly common. Prince Turki bin Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. published a column in a leading Israeli newspaper in 2014 arguing for the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. I participated in a panel in Washington that year that included Prince Turki and Yossi Alpher, a former Mossad official. In the 1990s, during the heyday of the peace process, Israelis and Saudis met frequently in the course of multilateral forums.
But publicly announced meetings in Jerusalem at the King David Hotel are different. The nominal purpose was discussion of the 2002 Arab initiative, developed by then-Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who later became king.
This visit reflects far more change in Saudi views than those in Israel. The Jewish state has long pressed for normalization with the Arab states, particularly those in the Gulf. Such a public visit suggests Saudi willingness to test the waters. Changes in the region wrought by the Arab Spring, the rise of Iran, and shared worries over the Iran nuclear agreement have narrowed the divide between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saudis appear to be more worried about Iran and the rise of ISIS than about being seen with the Israelis. The logic of shared enemies has created more intimacy in Israeli-Egyptian relations as well. Egypt and Israel both have interest in restraining Hamas and the jihadis operating in Sinai. What’s striking is that Saudi Arabia and Egypt seem to be using the Palestinian issue not to isolate Israel but as a basis to engage.
Israel and Pakistan Take Part in Joint Aerial Combat Exercise in U.S.
read more: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.736991
In recent days photographers in the area, near Las Vegas, have filmed Israeli, Spanish and Pakistani aircraft in advance of the joint exercise. In addition, a transport plane belonging to the United Arab Emirates was also photographed, indicating that, as reported, that country’s air force will also participate in the exercise.
The Israeli plane that will be used in the exercise is the F-16I (the “Sufa,” or Storm). In footage from Nevada one can see that IAF jets belonging to three different Sufa squadrons were sent to the United States. Air and ground crews will also participate.
The Red Flag exercise is scheduled to end on August 26.
“The Red Flag is the biggest and best simulation of war in the world,” one IAF officer said at the end of the 2015 exercise.
All of the squadrons participating are assigned to “red” and “blue” forces. They practice intercepting other aircraft, attacking targets, rescuing pilots and engaging in aerial activity under the ostensible threat of ground-to-air missiles.
Haaretz received no response when questioning Israel Defense Forces sources two weeks ago about the possible participation of Pakistan and the UAR in Red Flag.
At the time the IDF Spokesman's Office said only that, “The air force trains regularly in Israel and abroad in order to maintain operational fitness for various operational plans. The Red Flag exercise involves unique and high-quality training. When the IAF was invited to participate, it accepted the invitation.”
read more: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.736991
#French #India #submarine #ScorpeneLeak Lets Vital Stats Are Out In Open: 10 Facts http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/more-scorpene-leaks-tonight-says-australian-newspaper-10-facts-1450394 … via @ndtv
The sonar system, including the frequencies used by its key components, the Flank Array, the Sonar Intercept Receiver, the Distributed Array and the Active Array have been compromised. All these systems work together to allow the submarine to detect enemy warships and submarines and attack them using torpedoes.
The latest tranche of data appears to contradict the Ministry of Defence statement earlier today that there was no immediate security risk from the leak of secret documents detailing the capabilities of the Scorpene.
The Australian newspaper, which reported on the leak two days ago, posted new details this evening on its website but with sensitive info redacted.
So though the documents prove that the classified information had been compromised, it is not in the public domain.
The documents posted earlier have been examined and do not pose any security compromise as the vital parameters have been blacked out," the defence ministry said in a statement earlier. However, it is The Australian which has redacted sensitive data. It is possible that these documents are also available to others.
Six Scorpenes designed by French shipmaker DCNS are being built in Mumbai. The first is expected to join service before the end of this year.
On Tuesday night, the Australian said it had 22,000 pages of details that exposed the combat capability of the submarines, being built at a cost of $3.5 billion.
The documents were stolen from DCNS and not leaked, an unnamed French government source said to news agency Reuters, adding that the information published so far shows only operational aspects of the submarines.
The source said the documents appeared to have been stolen in 2011 by a former French employee that had been fired while providing training in India on the use of the submarines.
India and France have opened investigations with Delhi asking for a detailed report.
NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, Nev. (AFNS) -- Pakistan Air Force F-16C/D aircraft traveled more than 7,700 miles to participate in Red Flag 16-4 here from Aug. 15-26.
The training allowed the Pakistan and U.S. air forces to continue building and strengthening their relationship. It also provided them the chance to improve integration, further training and enhance the readiness of air operations.
“The F-16 has been the lynchpin in accomplishing our mutual desired objectives,” said Pakistan Air Vice Marshal Syed Noman Ali, the deputy chief of air staff. “At the strategic level it has been extremely valuable. On the capability enhancement and objective achievement on the ground, this aircraft has been the most useful.”
Pakistan brought a unique set of skills to the exercise, from their willingness to collaborate to their motivation to get the most out of the training scenarios.
“For me, it is absolutely phenomenal to have a partner who is willing to do that and looks at this as truly an opportunity to not only get better as a force within the Pakistan Air Force but also how to better integrate with everyone else,” said Maj. Gen. Rick B. Mattson, the chief of the Office of the Defense Representative, Pakistan. “That has been a major focus for the team that has been here and I have already heard about ways they are able to integrate better through technology and we will try to work on that part.”
Not only have the Pakistan pilots been impressive but also their maintenance team as well.
“I have a lot of experience in the Middle East and this is a very unique capability that they have,” Mattson said. “When you go through the maintenance facility, bays, it’s all Pakistan enlisted working on these aircrafts.”
Integration has been a major focus for Red Flag 16-4 and the Pakistan Air Force has played a key role in helping achieve that goal.
“When you have a force that is that professional and is dedicated to training and working together as a coalition you are going to get better as a group and I think that has been the biggest lesson from this,” Mattson said.
The exercise has helped both air forces learn each other’s strengths and utilizing those strengths in real-world situations.
“Whenever we’ve been together with the U.S. in terms of an exercise or other engagements it has been amazing, productive and mutually rewarding experience on both sides,” Ali said. “Whether its actual strategies that have been going on in the region or it has been exercises that train for certain events, I would expect this type of relationship to grow stronger in the future.”
#Pakistan Unveils VLF Submarine Communications Facility for #Nuclear Armed Subs Under Naval Strategic Forces Command http://www.defensenews.com/articles/pakistan-unveils-vlf-submarine-communications-facility …
Pakistan on Tuesday unveiled a very low frequency (VLF) communication facility that will enable it to communicate with deployed submarines.
Mansoor Ahmed, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center and expert on Pakistan’s nuclear program and delivery systems, said the facility is vital for command and control of submarines carrying a nuclear deterrent patrol, and the announcement essentially confirms Pakistan has established a preliminary, sea-based arm of its nuclear deterrent.
"The Naval Strategic Force Command inaugurated in 2012 is now closer to being the custodian of the country's second-strike capability," he said.
According to an official news release by the military’s Inter Services Public Relations media branch, the VLF facility is at a new base, PNS Hameed, near Pakistan’s main port of Karachi, and is the first of its
kind in the country.
“The secure military communication link in the VLF spectrum will add new dimensions by enhancing the flexibility and reach of submarine operations," the news release said.
Ahmed said Pakistan likely will deploy a nuclear-armed, sub-launched variant of Babur “during the next decade.”
The Babur is similar to the United States' BGM-109 Tomahawk and has long been speculated to be modified for launch by Pakistan’s three French-designed Agosta 90B submarines, thereby offering the shortest route to a second-strike capability.
A dedicated nuclear role places an additional burden on the submarines, however, with the two Agosta 70 subs near obsolete.
Author, analyst and former Australian defense attaché to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, said Pakistan’s submarines are the “only means that Pakistan will have to seriously counter the Indian Navy. No matter
how professional the surface fleet might be — and it's very impressive — it's tiny and would be the target of concentrated Indian strikes.”
Therefore, a continuous at-sea deterrent capability may only be realized once the eight Chinese-designed, AIP-equipped submarines on order begin to commission from 2022 onward.
#India's Nuclear Submarine In #Pakistan's Waters Triggers War Worries http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/11/india-submarine-pakistan-sea/ … via @ValueWalk
As war tensions between India and Pakistan are soaring, an Indian nuclear submarine attempted to enter Pakistani waters but found itself pushed out by the Pakistan Navy. India had tried to send its nuclear-powered submarine into Pakistani waters in what appears to be an attempt to provoke Pakistan to a military stand-off. But the Pakistan Navy successfully intercepted the submarine before it entered its marine territory.
The Pakistan Navy has once again “proved its vigilance and operational competence” by preventing the Indian submarine from entering Pakistani waters, according to the Pakistan Army’s press office. Pakistan Navy Fleet units detected and localized India’s nuclear submarine, which may have been spying south of the Pakistani coast. Pakistanis noted that the submarine had made “desperate” attempts to escape detection but was eventually pushed out of Pakistani waters.
“This is a proof of Pakistan Navy’s extremely skilled anti-submarine warfare unit,” the Pakistani Army’s press release stated on Friday.
The Pakistan Navy has once again “proved its vigilance and operational competence” by preventing the Indian submarine from entering Pakistani waters, according to the Pakistan Army’s press office. Pakistan Navy Fleet units detected and localized India’s nuclear submarine, which may have been spying south of the Pakistani coast. Pakistanis noted that the submarine had made “desperate” attempts to escape detection but was eventually pushed out of Pakistani waters.
“This is a proof of Pakistan Navy’s extremely skilled anti-submarine warfare unit,” the Pakistani Army’s press release stated on Friday.
In the press release, Pakistan warned that it remains vigilant and fully prepared to respond to India’s aggression. Hours after the press release was published, India denied Pakistan’s claim of detecting and chasing away its nuclear submarine.
The nuclear submarine that was pushed out of Pakistani waters is one more indication that India continues making attempts to destabilize the situation. On Monday, India’s unprovoked firings along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir resulted in the deaths of seven Pakistani soldiers. Pakistanis responded to the aggression and killed 11 of India’s soldiers, according to Pakistani Army Chief Raheel Sharif on Wednesday.
However, India strongly denies the accusations and claims that “no fatal casualties” took place along the LoC between November 14 and 16.
Sharif said, “The Indian Army should man up and own up the loss of lives of its personnel.”
The Army chief claims Pakistanis have killed “40-44 Indian troops” in the current clashes. Pakistan views India’s recent violations as a means of diverting the world’s attention away from the atrocities committed by Indian forces in the disputed Kashmir region.
Some Pakistanis believe that India’s increasing aggression is designed to drag their country into a direct military confrontation. India’s “No First Use” policy on nuclear weapons means it won’t unleash war against Pakistan unless attacked by it.
Pakistani nuclear forces, 2015
Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norri
Federation of American Scientists (FAS)
The second cruise missile under
development, the air-launched, dualcapable
RaÕad (Hatf-8), has been testlaunched
four times. The test-launches
have been conducted from a Mirage III
fighter-bomber. The most recent testlaunch
was conducted in May 2012; the
span of time since then also hints at
technical challenges. After the last
test, the Pakistani government
acknowledged that ÒÔCruise TechnologyÕ
is extremely complex,Ó and
said that the RaÕad could deliver
nuclear and conventional warheads to
a range greater than 350 km, and enable
Pakistan Òto achieve strategic standoff
capability on land and at seaÓ (ISPR,
There are also signs that Pakistan is
developing a nuclear weaponÑinitially
probably a nuclear-capable cruise missileÑfor
deployment on submarines. In
2012, the Pakistani navy established
Headquarters Naval Strategic Forces
Command (NSFC) for the development
and deployment of a sea-based strategic
nuclear force. The government said that
this command would be the Òcustodian
of the nationÕs second-strike capabilityÓ
to Òstrengthen PakistanÕs policy of Credible
Minimum Deterrence and ensure
regional stabilityÓ (ISPR, 2012e).
A Global #Nuclear Winter: Avoiding the Unthinkable in #India and #Pakistan - FPIF
India and Pakistan have fought three wars over the disputed province in the past six decades and came within a hair’s breadth of a nuclear exchange in 1999. Both countries are on a crash program to produce nuclear weapons, and between them they have enough explosive power to not only kill more than 20 million of their own people, but also to devastate the world’s ozone layer and throw the Northern Hemisphere into a nuclear winter — with a catastrophic impact on agriculture worldwide.
According to studies done at Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder, and the University of California-Los Angeles, if both countries detonated 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs, it would generate between 1 and 5 million tons of smoke. Within 10 days, that would drive temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere down to levels too cold for wheat production in much of Canada and Russia. The resulting 10 percent drop in rainfall — especially in Asian locales that rely monsoons — would exhaust worldwide food supplies, leading to the starvation of up to 100 million or more people.
Aside from the food crisis, a nuclear war in South Asia would destroy between 25 to 70 percent of the Northern Hemisphere’s ozone layer, resulting in a massive increase in dangerous ultraviolent radiation.
In an interview with the German newspaper Deutsche Welle, Gregory Koblentz of the Council on Foreign Relations warned that if a “commander of a forward-deployed nuclear armed unit finds himself in a ‘use it or lose it’ situation and about to be overrun, he might decided to launch his weapons.”
The second dangerous development is the “Cold Start” strategy by India that would send Indian troops across the border to a depth of 30 kilometers in the advent of a terrorist attack like the 1999 Kargill incident in Kashmir, the 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, or the 2008 attack on Mumbai that killed 166 people.
Since the Indian army is more than twice the size of Pakistan’s, there would be little that Pakistanis could do to stop such an invasion other than using battlefield nukes. India would then be faced with either accepting defeat or responding.
A strategy of pulling India into an alliance against China was dreamed up during the administration of George W. Bush, but it was Obama’s “Asia Pivot” that signed and sealed the deal. With it went a quid pro quo: If India would abandon its traditional neutrality, the Americans would turn a blind eye to Kashmir.
As a sweetener, the U.S. agreed to bypass the global nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow India to buy uranium on the world market, something New Delhi had been banned from doing since it detonated a nuclear bomb in 1974 using fuel it had cribbed from U.S.-supplied nuclear reactors. In any case, because neither India nor Pakistan is a party to the treaty, both should be barred from buying uranium. In India’s case, the U.S. has waived that restriction.
The so-called 1-2-3 Agreement requires India to use any nuclear fuel it purchases in its civilian reactors, but frees it up to use its meager domestic supplies on its nuclear weapons program. India has since built two enormous nuclear production sites at Challakere and near Mysore, where, rumor has it, it is producing a hydrogen bomb. Both sites are off limits to international inspectors.
In 2008, when the Obama administration indicated it was interested in pursuing the 1-2-3 Agreement, then Pakistani Foreign minister Khurshid Kusuni warned that the deal would undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty and lead to a nuclear arms race in Asia. That is exactly what has come to pass. The only countries currently adding to their nuclear arsenals are Pakistan, India, China, and North Korea.
#Pakistan sets up special #maritime force to secure #CPEC-linked sea lanes to #Gwadar | IHS Jane's 360 http://www.janes.com/article/66244/pakistan-sets-up-special-maritime-force-to-secure-cpec-linked-sea-lanes#.WFGLPS4Z_TE.twitter …
The Pakistan Navy (PN) has set up a new maritime force known as Task Force-88 (TF-88) to protect sea lanes linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is expected to trigger a surge in maritime activity at the country's Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea.
The new task force, which will reportedly comprise naval vessels, manned and unmanned aircraft, and other surveillance assets, was established on 13 December "for [the] maritime security of Gwadar Port and [the] protection of associated sea lanes against both conventional and non-traditional threats", according to a DAWN newspaper report.
Marines are also set to be deployed at sea and around the port to enhance security, a senior PN official was quoted by the paper as saying.
#China Newspaper: Range of #Pakistan's #nuclear #missiles will increase if #India continues to extend its range.
On Monday, India successfully tested its long-range ballistic missile, Agni-IV, which can travel 4,000 kilometers and carry a nuclear warhead, in the wake of an earlier successful test-firing of Agni-V that has a range of more than 5,000 kilometers. The country's media were elated in their reports, stressing that India's tests of the nuclear-capable ballistic missile "covers entire China." "Agni-V can deter China," said The Times of India.
India has broken the UN's limits on its development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missile. The US and some Western countries have also bent the rules on its nuclear plans. New Delhi is no longer satisfied with its nuclear capability and is seeking intercontinental ballistic missiles that can target anywhere in the world and then it can land on an equal footing with the UN Security Council's five permanent members.
India is "promising" in vying for permanent membership on the UN Security Council as it is the sole candidate who has both nuclear capability and economic potential.
China should realize that Beijing wouldn't hold back India's development of long-range ballistic missiles.
However, Chinese don't feel India's development has posed any big threat to it. And India wouldn't be considered as China's main rival in the long run. It is simply believed that currently there is a vast disparity in power between the two countries and India knows what it would mean if it poses a nuclear threat to China. The best choice for Beijing and New Delhi is to build rapport.
If the Western countries accept India as a nuclear country and are indifferent to the nuclear race between India and Pakistan, China will not stand out and stick rigidly to those nuclear rules as necessary. At this time, Pakistan should have those privileges in nuclear development that India has.
China is sincere in developing friendly ties with India. But it will not sit still if India goes too far. Meanwhile, New Delhi understands that it does little good to itself if the Sino-Indian relations are ruined by any geopolitical tricks.
In general, it is not difficult for India to produce intercontinental ballistic missiles which can cover the whole world. If the UN Security Council has no objection over this, let it be. The range of Pakistan's nuclear missiles will also see an increase. If the world can adapt to these, China should too.
India still maintains a strategic defensive posture before China. The Chinese people should not be led astray by India's extreme words online about its deterrence ability against China. There are similar rhetorics targeting at India in China's cyber world. But, these aggressive online rhetorics count for little.
At present, India's GDP accounts for about 20 percent of China's. China's strategic nuclear missiles have long ago realized global coverage, and China's overall military industrial capacity is much better than that of India.
For India, China is something to inspire ambition and invoke patriotism. However, India should realize that owning several missiles does not mean it is a nuclear power. Even though India does become a nuclear power, it will be a long time before it can show off its strength to the world.
#Pakistan Test-Fires #Submarine-Launched #Missile for "2nd strike" to complete #nuke triad - ABC News - http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pakistan-test-fired-submarine-launched-missile-44650839 … via @ABC
Pakistan's military says it has successfully test-fired a submarine-launched cruise missile for the first time, giving it a "credible second strike capability."
A statement Monday said the missile was fired from the Indian Ocean and hit its target. It said the Babur Cruise-3 missile has a range of 450 kilometers (280 miles) and can fly low to evade radar and air defenses.
It added that the missile "is capable of delivering various types of payloads and will provide Pakistan with a Credible Second Strike Capability, augmenting deterrence." It appeared to be referring to a strategy in which the ability to strike back after a nuclear attack deters adversaries from launching one.
Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998, developing the capability to match that of neighbor and archrival India.
Pakistan fires its first submarine-based nuclear cruise missile
Pakistan has successfully fired its first nuclear-capable submarine-based cruise missile, in a move that escalates tensions with neighbouring India.
The Pakistani navy said on Monday afternoon that it had launched a nuclear-capable Babur-3 missile, which has a range of 450km, from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean.
“Pakistan eyes this hallmark development as a step towards reinforcing the policy of credible minimum deterrence,” the military said in a statement.
It added that the missile was “capable of delivering various types of payloads and will provide Pakistan with a credible second strike capability, augmenting deterrence”.
The move comes with tensions still high on the de facto border with nuclear-armed India. Hours before the announcement of the test, India said three civilians had been killed when militants crossed the line of control between the two countries in Kashmir and attacked an army camp.
The skirmish was the latest in a series of tit-for-tat strikes across the border since 19 Indian soldiers were killed in an attack on the Uri army base in India-controlled Kashmir in September.
Experts said Pakistan was thinking of developing a sea-based nuclear missile programme in case India succeeded in damaging or eliminating its land-based weapons. According to some, the country has vigorously pursued sea-based nuclear missiles for years — but before Monday’s test it had only launched nuclear missiles from land and air-based platforms.
“It’s the completion of our triad, which is important,” one senior government official told the FT.
India is pursuing a sea-based nuclear deterrent “largely to keep up with China while Pakistan is attempting to follow suit”, according to Walter Ladwig, a lecturer in international relations at King’s College, London.
“If Pakistan could succeed in developing a successful and survivable submarine-based deterrent, it could, in theory, assuage a lot of their concerns about pre-emption by India,” he said. “However, it also creates opportunities for more mistakes and accidents.”
Shashank Joshi, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “If Pakistan fears that India may aspire to destroying Pakistan’s nukes on the ground, thereby undercutting mutual deterrence, then it makes sense to put weapons at sea, where they are more survivable.”
But he added: “This would come with a huge price tag.”
Pakistan’s test comes two weeks after India test-fired its long range ballistic missile Agni-V, which has a range of more than 5,000km.
India is also well ahead in developing an at-sea missile system, having test-launched a cruise missile from a submarine in 2013.
Nevertheless, Pakistan has stepped up its spending on armed forces in recent years. In 2015, Pakistan formally reached an agreement with China for the latter to supply the Pakistan navy with eight new submarines, the country’s largest defence contract in value terms.
A spokesman for the Indian army did not immediately respond to a request to comment.
Pakistan: Military Test-Fires First Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile
creating a plausible sea-based second-strike threat requires a submarine fleet that can fire missiles. As of now Pakistan has only five of these vessels, three of which could be considered fairly modern. Nevertheless, Islamabad plans to dramatically expand its submarine fleet: In 2015, it struck a deal with Beijing to buy eight submarines similar to the Yuan-class model. Pakistan is also in the process of moving its main submarine base to Ormara from Karachi, which is more vulnerable to attack than the new location because of its proximity to the Indian border.
But Pakistan's reliance on diesel-electric submarines, rather than dedicated nuclear ballistic missile counterparts, comes with significant risks. For example, Pakistani submarines carrying nuclear weapons could come under attack from Indian anti-submarine forces that are unable to distinguish the vessels based on their mission. This could lead Pakistani commanders, who may think the attack is part of an Indian effort to neutralize Islamabad's sea-based nuclear force, to fire their nuclear missiles during what might otherwise be a conventional conflict.
This links directly to a second danger: the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Because submarines' nuclear-tipped cruise missiles must be ready to launch before they leave port, an enormous amount of responsibility and power is placed on the shoulders of the officers piloting the vessels. Untrustworthy commanders or breakdowns in the chain of command could considerably raise the risk of the unsanctioned use of nuclear weapons.
When all is said and done, Pakistan's decision to rely on nuclear weapons as a means of warding off attack from a more powerful India has increased the chance of nuclear warfare breaking out in South Asia. Though Islamabad's quest for a sea-based nuclear deterrent is hardly surprising, it is a conspicuous example of an alarming pattern of posturing between two nuclear powers that have a long and volatile history of hostility toward each other.
Pakistan Closer To Nuclear Second-Strike Capability After Sub Missile Test
Second strike capability means that even if a full-on surprise nuclear barrage were to knock out a country’s nuclear weapons capability, that country still has the ability to make their attacker pay dearly via a retaliatory nuclear attack. It is considered the pinnacle of nuclear deterrent strategies.
Pakistan’s Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) that was tested just weeks ago in the Indian Ocean is an evolution of the land-based Babur-2. The Babur series of cruise missiles were developed partially via reverse engineering US Navy BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles that crashed in Pakistan in 1998. The first and second land-based versions offered just another layer of attack capability for the Pakistani military, but the submarine-launched Babur-3’s strategic significance is far greater.
Pakistani military officials claim that the sea-skimming Babur-3 has a 280 miles range and is highly accurate. The missile will likely end up on Pakistan’s three French-designed Agosta 90B class—locally known as the Khalid class—diesel-electric submarines.
These 2,000 ton displacement submarines are quite advanced and are built for open-ocean missions. They can stay submerged for multiple days at a time via their MESMA air independent propulsion (AIP) system. Normal weaponry for the type includes SM39 Exocet anti-ship missiles and 533mm torpedoes.
With the Babur 3’s supposed range of just under 300 miles, and with just three submarines assigned to the task of deploying them (eventually), Pakistan’s fledgling ability to deliver a second strike on an enemy state is quite limited, but it may still be credible. It remains unclear if Pakistan will keep one boat at sea at all times or if they will train to surge-deploy at a moment's notice. Other operational questions remain as well, including what type of command and control interface will be used to authorize a submarine originated nuclear strike.
A second strike deterrent is largely achieved by deploying nuclear submarines loaded with nuclear-warhead laden submarine-launched ballistic missiles, but the use of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles aboard small diesel-electric submarines as a “poor man’s” second strike capability is not new. Israel has put the concept to use, leveraging their increasingly capable Dolphin class diesel-electric submarines loaded with nuclear-tipped Popeye Turbo cruise missiles. Other countries may be looking at deploying similar concepts in the future.
Although still a far cry from India’s 6,000 ton displacement Arihant class nuclear ballistic missile submarines (one is service and three others planned) and the short-range K-15 or medium-range K-4 ballistic missiles they carry, Pakistan’s nuclear armed Agosta class boats at least get the country in the second strike game, but in a very minimal way.
The Indian Navy’s anti-submarine capability is credible, and their submarine fleet includes multiple diesel-electric submarines of different origin, as wells a Russian Akula II class nuclear fast attack boat. So keeping an eye on Pakistan’s tiny Agosta 90B fleet will be possible, although it is not clear what level of confidence the Indian Navy has that they can always keep the boats in their own submarines’ crosshairs. Not just that, but even attempting to do so will tie up valuable assets that could better be assigned to deterring other regional nuclear powers, like China.
#Pakistan successfully tests #Ababeel, 2200 Km range #nuclear-capable #missile that can deliver multiple war heads
Pakistan on Tuesday conducted a successful test flight of the Ababeel surface-to-surface ballistic missile (SSM), the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement.
Ababeel has a maximum range of 2,200 kilometres and is capable of delivering multiple warheads using Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, an ISPR press release added.
"The test flight was aimed at validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system," it said.
Ababeel is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and has the capability to engage multiple targets with high precision, defeating hostile radars, the ISPR elaborated.
"The development of the Ababeel weapon system was aimed at ensuring survivability of Pakistan's ballistic missiles in the growing regional Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) environment," read the press release.
The Ababeel test came on the heels of a successful test of submarine-launched cruise missile Babur-III earlier this month.
"The successful attainment of a second strike capability by Pakistan represents a major scientific milestone; it is manifestation of the strategy of measured response to nuclear strategies and postures being adopted in Pakistan’s neighborhood," the military had said after the Babur-III test.
The missile, launched from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean from an underwater, mobile platform, had hit its target with precise accuracy, the Army had said.
Babur-III is a sea-based variant of ground-launched cruise missile Babur-II, which was successfully tested in December last year.
SharpEye #radar for #Pakistan #submarines - News - Shephard https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/digital-battlespace/pakistans-agosta-90b-gets-sharpeye-radar-systems/#.WK6AzEDudmU.twitter …
Kelvin Hughes will supply the I-band SharpEye Doppler submarine radar system as part of a mid-life upgrade programme for the Pakistan Navy's Agosta 90B class submarines. The company announced the contract on 21 February.
Kelvin Hughes will work with lead contractor STM on the programme, with the first system set for delivery in 2018.
Traditionally, submarines only tend to use radar for navigation when entering or leaving port, because high-power RF transmissions can compromise their ability to remain undetected when used in more open waters. However, with its low power, pulse Doppler transmission technology, SharpEye can provide a reduced probability of intercept which significantly lowers the risk of the submarine being detected but without compromising the target detection performance of the radar.
The SharpEye transceiver can be located within the pressure hull, making use of the existing bulkhead infrastructure, antenna rotational drive and waveguide connections.
The radar uses Doppler processing to detect targets at long range, including small, low radar cross section targets in adverse weather conditions. A series of electronic filters enables the radar to distinguish between targets of interest and unwanted sea and rain clutter.
Barry Jones, regional sales manager for Kelvin Hughes, said: 'We are delighted that the Pakistan Navy, a respected and long-standing customer of Kelvin Hughes, has chosen to take advantage of the performance and reliability benefits that our innovative SharpEye radar technology can now bring to submarine platforms. We're looking forward to working with our project partner STM to jointly deliver SharpEye capability to the Navy and [Agosta 90B] class submarines.'
Ex-#Mossad Chief Says #Palestine Occupation Is #Israel's Only Existential Threat - Israel.
Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo asserted on Tuesday that the Israeli occupation and the conflict with the Palestinians are the only existential threat facing Israel.
“Israel has chosen not to choose, hoping the conflict will resolve itself – perhaps the Arabs will disappear, maybe some cosmic miracle will happen,” Pardo told a conference at the Netanya Academic College. “One day we will become a binational state because it will be impossible to untie the Gordian knot between the two peoples. That is not the way to decide.”
Pardo stated: “Israel has one existential threat. It is a ticking time bomb. We chose to stick our head in the sand, creating a variety of external threats. An almost identical number of Jews and Muslims reside between the sea and the Jordan. The non-Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria live under occupation. This is Israel's definition, not mine. The law in this territory is as we have made it, a military justice system that is subject to the authority of the Israel Defense Forces.”
He said that despite the full withdrawal from Gaza, responsibility for the territory remains in Israel’s hands. “Israel is responsible for the humanitarian situation, and this is the place with the biggest problem in the world today,” he said.
read more: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.778650
MIT's Vipin Narang: #India prepared to use #nuclear weapons against #Pakistan first. #NFU #nukes
A day after Business Standard reported a new approach in New Delhi strategic circles to India’s use of nuclear weapons (Click here to read the article), the influential Washington D.C. think tank, Carnegie Endowment, discussed the same issue --- the possibility of an Indian “first strike” to defang Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
At the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday, a prestigious annual event at which important strategic policy chances are often signalled, a discussion took place on whether India was moving away from massive counter-value retaliation (i.e. nuking towns and cities) to counter-force targeting (i.e. nuking enemy nuclear forces and command structures).
Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor, Vipin Narang, outlined a scenario in which a Pakistan-backed terrorist strike on India killed scores of civilians. New Delhi mobilised its three strike corps and attacked Pakistan. With the armour-heavy 21 Corps bludgeoning along, Pakistan ordered a “demonstration” strike with tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) --- its short-range Nasr missile batteries --- as a nuclear warning to India. New Delhi’s response, according to traditional Indian nuclear doctrine would then be “massive counter-value retaliation against Pakistani cities, leaving aside how credible or incredible that might be.”
But then Narang sprung the surprise. “There is increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. And that India’s opening salvo may not be conventional strikes trying to pick off just Nasr batteries in the theatre, but a full ‘comprehensive counterforce strike’ that attempts to completely disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons so that India does not have to engage in… tit-for-tat exchanges and expose its own cities to nuclear destruction.”
Narang pointed out that this dramatic change did not surface from “fringe voices”, but from former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon in his new book; and former chief of India’s strategic forces command, Lieutenant General B S Nagal, both of whom have questioned India’s traditional “massive counter-value retaliation”.
Narang pointed to a possible “decoupling” of Indian nuclear strategy vis-a-vis China and Pakistan. While retaining NFU and massive counter-value retaliation against China, New Delhi was considering a disarming counter-force strike against Pakistan.
Also in question was India’s longstanding “no first use” (NFU) policy, with Narang pointing out that it had been questioned at least four times already. First, India’s official nuclear doctrine, published in 2003, officially eroded the sanctity of NFU by invoking nuclear use against chemical or biological weapons. Second, in November, former defence minister Manohar Parrikar stated (later clarified to be in his personal capacity): “India should not declare whether it has a NFU policy”. Third, General Nagal, in his writings questioned the morality of NFU, asking whether it was possible for India’s leadership to accept huge casualties by restraining its hand well knowing that Pakistan was about to use nuclear weapons.
Fourth, Menon undermines NFU’s sanctity with this paragraph in his book: “There is a potential grey area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first against another NWS (nuclear weapons state). Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against an NWS that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary’s launch was imminent.”
Said Narang at Carnegie: “Indian leaders can disavow all of this as personal opinions, but when a sitting defence minister, former Strategic Forces commander, and highly respected NSA all question the sanctity of NFU, it all starts to add up.”
#India, Long at Odds With #Pakistan, May Use #Nuclear First Strikes Against Neighbor
India may be reinterpreting its nuclear weapons doctrine, circumstantial evidence suggests, with potentially significant ramifications for the already tenuous nuclear balance in South Asia.
New assessments suggest that India is considering allowing for pre-emptive nuclear strikes against Pakistan’s arsenal in the event of a war. This would not formally change India’s nuclear doctrine, which bars it from launching a first strike, but would loosen its interpretation to deem pre-emptive strikes as defensive.
It would also change India’s likely targets, in the event of a war, to make a nuclear exchange more winnable and, therefore, more thinkable.
Analysts’ assessments, based on recent statements by senior Indian officials, are necessarily speculative. States with nuclear weapons often leave ambiguity in their doctrines to prevent adversaries from exploiting gaps in their proscriptions and to preserve flexibility. But signs of a strategic adjustment in India are mounting.
This comes against a backdrop of long-simmering tensions between India and Pakistan — including over state-sponsored terrorism and the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir — which have already led to several wars, the most recent in 1999.
The new interpretation would be a significant shift in India’s posture that could have far-reaching implications in the region, even if war never comes. Pakistan could feel compelled to expand its arsenal to better survive a pre-emptive strike, in turn setting off an Indian buildup.
This would be more than an arms race, said Vipin Narang, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who studies nuclear powers.
“It’s very scary because all the ‘first-strike instability’ stuff is real,” Mr. Narang said, referring to a dynamic in which two nuclear adversaries both perceive a strong incentive to use their warheads first in a war. This is thought to make nuclear conflict more likely.
Hidden in Plain Sight
Hints of a high-level Indian debate over the nuclear doctrine mounted with a recent memoir by Shivshankar Menon, India’s national security adviser from 2011 to 2014.
“There is a potential gray area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first” against a nuclear-armed adversary, Mr. Menon wrote.
India, he added, “might find it useful to strike first” against an adversary that appeared poised to launch or that “had declared it would certainly use its weapons” — most likely a veiled reference to Pakistan.
Mr. Narang presented the quotations, along with his interpretation, in Washington last week, during a major nuclear policy conference hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“There is increasing evidence that India will not allow Pakistan to go first,” he told a gathering of international government officials and policy experts.
Mr. Menon’s book, he said, “clearly carves out an exception for pre-emptive Indian first use in the very scenario that is most likely to occur in South Asia.”
The passage alone does not prove a policy shift. But in context alongside other developments, it suggests either that India has quietly widened its strategic options or that officials are hoping to stir up just enough ambiguity to deter its adversaries.
After Mr. Narang’s presentation generated attention in the South Asian news media, Mr. Menon told an Indian columnist, “India’s nuclear doctrine has far greater flexibility than it gets credit for.”
Mr. Menon declined an interview request for this article. When told what the article would say, he did not challenge its assertions. India’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Whether these signals indicate a real shift or a strategic feint, analysts believe they are intended to right a strategic imbalance that has been growing for almost a decade.
The Risks of Pakistan's Sea-Based Nuclear Weapons
The Babur-3 opens a dangerous era for Pakistan’s nuclear forces.
By Ankit Panda
October 13, 2017
Nine days into 2017, Pakistan carried out the first-ever flight test of the Babur-3, it’s new nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). A variant of the Babur-3 ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM), this SLCM will see Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent head to sea—probably initially aboard its Agosta 90B and Agosta 70 submarines, but eventually, perhaps even on board new Type 041 Yuan-class submarines Pakistan is expected to procure from China.
In a new article in the Fall 2017 issue of the Washington Quarterly, Christopher Clary and I examine some of the novel security challenges Pakistan may experience with its sea-based deterrent. It is already well known that Pakistan has outpaced it’s primary rival, India, in terms of its nuclear stockpile growth.
On land, low-yield systems, like the Nasr, have also raised concerns of a lower nuclear-use threshold in South Asia. The move to sea can have some positive effects on overall strategic stability; indeed, the perceived survivability of a sea-based deterrent can abate so-called “use-it-or-lose-it” pressures for Pakistan’s land-based forces. But the story doesn’t stop there.
Sea-based weapons can aggravate crisis stability concerns in the India-Pakistan dyad and present unique command-and-control challenges for Pakistan, which may be required to place these weapons at a higher level of readiness during peacetime. Finally, Pakistan’s internal security environment will remain a concern with a submarine-based deterrent. The threat of theft and sabotage may be greater in the case of Pakistan’s sea-based weapons than it is for its land-based forces. In aggregate, we argue that the sea-based deterrent may, on balance, prove detrimental to Pakistan’s security.
Pakistan, like other nuclear states, employs a range of physical and procedural safeguards to ensure that its nuclear weapons are only used in a crisis and a with a valid order from the country’s National Command Authority (NCA). The introduction of a nuclear-capable SLCM aboard its Agosta submarines would necessitate the erosion of some of these safeguards.
For instance, some physical safeguards that Pakistan is known to use for its land-based weapons — including partially dissembled storage, separation of triggers and pits, and de-mated storage — would be impractical at sea. Meanwhile, the experience of other nuclear states, like the United Kingdom, with sea-based deterrents suggests that sea-based nuclear weapons generally see fewer use impediments. Pakistan has long asserted that its nuclear command-and-control is highly centralized, but it remains doubtful that this would remain true for its small nuclear-capable submarine force in wartime or a crisis. The temptation to pre-delegate use authorization may be too great.
Similarly, Indian forces, unable to discriminate whether a detected Pakistani submarine in a crisis was fielding nuclear or conventional capabilities, would have to presume nuclear capability should the Babur-3 see deployment. All of this in turn not only would make Pakistan’s submarine force a prime early-crisis target for Indian forces, but also aggravate use-or-lose pressures for land-based forces.
Ultimately, even if India resisted attacking Pakistani submarines to avoid unintended escalatory pressures, it would at least see value in targeting the Very Low Frequency (VLF) radar facility established at Karachi in November 2016 that would allow Pakistan’s NCA to communicate with its at-sea deterrent in a crisis. This would require some confidence in New Delhi that Pakistan had not pre-delegated use authorization and that Islamabad’s sea-based weapons would still require the transmission of a use-authorization code from the NCA.
Kelvin Hughes to supply SharpEye #Submarine #radar systems to #Pakistan #Navy
The Pakistan Navy has placed a follow-on order to Kelvin Hughes for the delivery of a second SharpEye Doppler submarine radar system.
Kelvin Hughes is set to supply its second set of radar systems for the navy’s newest Agosta 90B-class, or Khalid-class, diesel electric attack submarine under the latest deal.
The new radars will be installed on-board the Pakistan Navy submarines as part of its mid-life upgrade programme, which is currently being carried out at the Karachi Pakistan Naval Shipyard.
The original contract was awarded to Kelvin Hughes in February this year and saw the company deliver the I-Band SharpEye Doppler submarine radar system for the navy’s first Agosta 90B-class vessel.
Kelvin Hughes is expected to work in collaboration with the modernisation programme’s main contractor, Turkish defence company STM, in support of the initiative.
Kelvin Hughes regional sales manager Barry Jones said: “We have a long standing relationship with the Pakistan Navy and STM and I am very pleased to be working with STM to supply the state-of-the-art SharpEye radar system to the Khalid-class submarines.”
The SharpEye radar solution for the first ship is slated to be supplied to the navy next year, while the newly ordered system for the second vessel is scheduled for delivery in 2019.
SharpEye I-Band (X-Band) radar transceivers feature a downmast transceiver system installed in an enclosure located within the pressure hull.
This configuration provides submarines with a high-performance solid state radar with similar capabilities to SharpEye radars deployed on naval surface ships, both in-service as a retrofit and for installation on-board new classes.
The downmast submarine radar solution makes use of the existing bulkhead infrastructure in the pressure hull, thereby eliminating the need to replace the antenna mast system by utilising the existing external antenna, rotational drive and waveguide connections.
India's Lone Arihant-class SSBN Has Been out of Service for Months
The Indian Navy has a serious submarine operations problem.
We need to talk about the Indian Navy’s handling of its submarines. A report published this week in The Hindu reveals an astonishing fact: India’s sole operational indigenous nuclear-propulsion ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), INS Arihant, has suffered major damage and has been out of commission for more than nine months, during which time it has not left port. (Arihant is the lead ship of the Arihant-class of Indian SSBNs; the Indian Navy recently began outfitting the second ship of the class, INS Arighat.)
The cause of the damage, according to one source who spoke to The Hindu, was that “water rushed in because a hatch on the rear side was left open by mistake.” Human error, it seems, has done massive damage to the third leg of India’s burgeoning nuclear triad, leaving the Arihant, the result of a top secret $2.9 billion project, dead in the water for now.
For those readers who follow Indian defense affairs, the Arihant‘s fate might not seem all that surprising. The Indian Navy has not demonstrated a particularly good record in recent years in managing its conventional and nuclear-powered submarine forces.
On one hand, there are the human tragedies, like the August 2013 sinking of INS Sindhurakshak after the Kilo-class submarine suffered a major explosion while berthed in Mumbai. Eighteen sailors died in the incident, which was caused by human error, a navy investigation later found.
Less dramatic, but nearly as serious, incidents have occurred since then. In February 2014, INS Sindhuratna, an Indian Kilo-class submarine, saw a fire break out on board, leading to the death of two sailors by suffocation. While that incident was not found to have been caused by human error, it was likely due to poor maintenance and upkeep of the vessel. (India’s then-chief of naval staff, Admiral D.K. Joshi, resigned following the Sindhurakshak and Sindhuratna incidents, taking responsibility for both accidents.)
Meanwhile, more recently, India’s leased nuclear attack submarine (SSN) INS Chakra, a Russian Akula II-class, saw its sonar domes damaged late last year. Taken together with the incidents involving the two Kilo-class vessels and the Arihant now, it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that the Indian Navy’s submarine operations and maintenance could be greatly improved. Even aside from submarines, since 2010, the Indian Navy has seen a series of accidents and malfunctions across its surface warfare fleet as well.
As an aside, The Hindu‘s reporting on the Arihant‘s circumstances includes an astonishing tidbit that’s darkly illustrative of a troubling divide between the country’s political leadership and the armed forces insofar as nuclear assets are concerned. Consider this:
The absence of Arihant from operations came to the political leadership’s attention during the India-China military stand-off at Doklam. Whenever such a stand-off takes place, countries carry out precautionary advance deployment of submarine assets.
Setting aside the fascinating detail that the Doklam standoff with China in 2017 rose to the level that it merited higher SSBN readiness, it’s disturbing that India’s political leaders would learn about one leg of the country’s nuclear triad being out of commission only after they requested a precautionary advance deployment.
Pakistan Tests An Indigenously Developed Anti-Ship Cruise Missile
Pakistan introduces the Harbah, a cruise missile with anti-ship and land-attack roles.
By Ankit Panda
January 08, 2018
Last week, the Pakistani Navy carried out the first-ever test launch of its Harbah anti-ship and land-attack cruise missile (LACM/ASCM). The test was carried out in the North Arabian Sea on January 3, according to a press release from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).
“The successful live weapon firing has once again demonstrated the credible fire power of Pakistan Navy and the impeccable level of indigenization in high tech weaponry achieved by Pakistan’s defence industry,” ISPR noted in a statement. “The missile accurately hit its target signifying the impressive capabilities of Harbah Naval Weapon System.”
The Harbah is thought to be derived from Pakistan’s Babur family of cruise missiles. Pakistan has tested multiple Babur variants, beginning with the ground-launched Babur-I to the submarine-launched Babur-III, which was first tested last January. Though ISPR made no comment on the missile’s payload capabilities, its origin in the Babur family would suggest that it could be converted for both conventional and nuclear payload delivery.
According to Pakistani media reports, Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense Production had planned to develop a missile system for the PNS Himmat by October 2018. According to the Ministry’s 2014-2015 yearbook, the Directorate General of Munitions Production (DGMP) had been tasked with “the indigenous (sic) developing of ship-borne system with Land Attack Missile [LACM] and Anti ship Missile” by that date.
The missile was launched from an Azmat-class fast attack craft, PNS Himmat. PNS Himmat was commissioned into the Pakistan Navy last summer after extensive sea trials. Along with PNS Himmat, PNS Azmat and PNS Deshat are likely to also operate the Harbah ASCM once the system is declared operational.
Pakistan’s test-firing of the Harbah came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to end U.S. military aid to the country in a tweet. While U.S. aid does not go toward Pakistan’s indigenous strategic weapons research and development, the ISPR statement noted that Pakistan’s chief of naval staff, Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi, said that Pakistan needed to “reduce reliance on foreign countries” and “emphasized the need to capitalize on indigenous defense capabilities.”
Turkey to Upgrade Pakistan Navy Attack Sub
A Turkish defense contractor will upgrade the second of three Agosta 90B submarines in service with the Pakistan Navy.
By Franz-Stefan Gady
March 06, 2018
Turkish state-owned defense contractor Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik ve Ticaret A.Ş. (STM) has won a contract for the mid-life upgrade of the second of three Agosta 90B-class (aka Khalid-class) diesel-electric attack submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion systems, currently in service with the Pakistan Navy.
The contract was signed in Pakistan by senior representatives of the Pakistan Ministry of Defense Production and STM last month, according to a company statement. Pakistan selected STM over French shipbuilder Direction des Constructions Navales Services (DCNS), the original designer and producer of the Agosta 90B-class, in a competitive bidding process in June 2016.
“At the conclusion of the bidding process, STM’s offer was found to be commercially and technically superior, and the company was consequently selected as the prime contractor by Pakistan’s Ministry of Defense Production,” the company statement reads. The original June 2016 contract only covered the retrofitting of the first Agosta 90B sub, the PNS Khalid, slated for delivery in 2020.
The second Agosta 90B boat, like the first-of-class PNS Khalid, will be upgraded at the Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) in Karachi. “The modernization works will include the replacement of the submarine’s entire sonar suite, periscope systems, command and control system, radar and electronic support systems. HAVELSAN- [Turkey’s state-controlled military software company] and ASELSAN [Turkish defense contractor]-made systems will also be exported as part of the project,” according to STM.
Among other things, the upgrade includes the installation of a SharpEye low probability-of-intercept (LPI) radar system aboard the PNS Saad. Additionally, “[u]nder the project, STM will make modifications on the pressure hull, the most critical structure in a submarine, by carrying out system-to-system and platform-to-system integrations for various systems, to be provided by local and foreign companies.”
The PNS Saad is expected to be returned to service within 12 months following the delivery of the PNS Khalid. The upgrade of all three subs–should a third contract between the Ministry of Defense Production and STM be signed—will likely be finished by the end of 2022.
The three Agosta 90B attack submarines were inducted into service with the Pakistan Navy between 1999 and 2008. The first-of-class PNS Khalid was built by DCNS in France, while the second boat of the class, PNS Saad, was assembled by KSEW from submarine modules delivery by DCNS. The third attack submarine, PNS Hamza, was built locally in Karachi.
Next to French-built Exocet anti-ship missiles, the upgraded Agosta 90B boats will purportedly also be armed with the nuclear-capable Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), currently under development.
Pakistan launches naval exercise as it aims to counter India, protect economy
By: Usman Ansari
Regarding what more could be done to improve capabilities in this respect, whether simply acquiring more patrol assets or also leveraging technology such as unmanned aerial and surface vehicles, Cloughley believes the Navy is “certainly concentrating on inshore patrol vessels.” However, he wondered about further planned developments for the Pakistan Coast Guards.
He believes unmanned technology is important, but does not think the government would “publicize intentions.”
Commercial satellite imagery has revealed China’s Wing Loong medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV undergoing testing in Pakistan, but nothing further is yet known except capabilities in marketing literature.
Pakistan from an Indian viewpoint
Conventionally vis-a-vis India, Pakistan’s Navy is in desperate need of modernization and expansion.
Kamal Alam, visiting fellow and Pakistan analyst at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute, said that during past conflicts the Navy played a “very minimal role against India,” historically being the “weakest of the three services.”
“However, over the last five years this is changing as China ramps up its support with the largest defense deal in their history in the shape of submarines” and as the Navy transitions from a “defensive force into an offensive one.”
Nevertheless, air support “is key to any naval operations against India,” he added.
Warships aside, India boasts numerous anti-ship missile-equipped aircraft including Harpoon-equipped Jaguars and supersonic Brahmos-equipped Su-30MKI Flankers that have enormous range. Pakistan’s Navy has limited defenses against Brahmos.
Improvements have been made as C-802A/CSS-N-8 Saccade-armed JF-17 Thunder jets have augmented the dated Exocet-equipped Mirages that will soon retire.
Nevertheless, author and analyst Kaiser Tufail, who commanded an anti-shipping strike Mirage squadron during his Air Force career, says more needs to be done.
The JF-17 “must have the supersonic CM-400AKG missile for the medium-term retrofit plans, possibly integrated with the Block III,” Tufail said.
“The days of subsonic anti-ship missiles are numbered. Even a mix of the C-802 and CM-400AKG can force a significant change in adversary operational employment of its naval resources,” he added.
The JF-17 is, however, comparably short-legged, necessitating “a long-range twin-engine fighter for maritime air superiority, escort of maritime patrol aircraft, air cover to surface, high-value vessels bringing in vital supplies, etc.,” he noted; hence, Exercise Ribat’s testing of “joint operability at greater ranges and a wider scope than in the past.”
Pakistan Navy on March 29 announced that it has successfully test-fired a cruise missile that is capable of being launched from a submarine. Defence experts believe that it has brought Pakistan closer to India, its main rival.
The Pakistani Navy revealed that the missile launched was the submarine version of ‘Babur’ missile and was test fired from an underground platform with a range of striking at 450 kms. They also revealed that the missile can carry various payloads and has enhanced its nuclear second-strike capability.
This is the second test of a missile of Babur class. The first test was reported in January last year and international defence analysts believe that this class of missiles was built by the inputs provided by the Chinese and Ukrainian navies.
The cruise missiles have a peculiar advantage over ballistic missiles. The former are smaller and hence can be launched from the torperdo tubes of the submarines. This could be the reason why Pakistan has started to modify its existing fleet of three French-designed Agosta-98 submarines. These Babur class missiles can also be launched by eight diesel-electric submarines that Pakistan is buying from China.
The test has raised serious concerns in New Delhi as the missile’s low-altitude profile makes it best for ‘sneak’ attacks along India’s vast coastline. This has also raised an alarm over Indian Navy’s depleting fleet of submarines and the nearly-obsolete anti-submarine warfare capabilities.
The Indian Navy still uses the outdated British Sea King helicopters for scanning the seas and launching quick attacks. These almost 50-years-old helicopters need to be replaced soon as they are an important part of the AWS capability.
#Pakistan Says #India's #nuclear #submarine #Arihant deployment poses a threat to regional, international peace: "This development marks the first actual deployment of ready-to-fire nuclear warheads in South Asia.... No One Should Doubt Our Capabilities" https://www.news18.com/news/india/no-one-should-doubt-our-capabilities-pakistan-says-ins-arihant-deployment-shows-indias-bellicose-posturing-1933439.html
Islamabad: Pakistan on Thursday expressed concern over the recent deployment of India's nuclear submarine INS Arihant, saying there should be no doubt about Islamabad's resolve and capabilities to meet the challenges in the nuclear and conventional realms in South Asia.
"This development marks the first actual deployment of ready-to-fire nuclear warheads in South Asia which is a matter of concern not only for the Indian Ocean littoral states but also for the international community at large,” Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesperson Mohammad Faisal said.
Nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant successfully completed its first deterrence patrol this week, taking India into a club of a handful of countries which have the capability to design, construct and operate such a submarine or SSBN
The spokesperson said the "bellicose" language employed by the top Indian leadership highlights the threats to strategic stability in South Asia and raises questions about responsible nuclear stewardship in India.
He said the increased frequency of missile tests by India, aggressive posturing and deployment of nuclear weapons calls for an assessment of the non-proliferation benefits resulting from India's membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
The spokesperson said Pakistan is committed to the objective of strategic stability in South Asia and believes that the only way forward for both countries is to agree on measures for nuclear and missile restraint.
"At the same time no one should be in doubt about Pakistan's resolve and capabilities to meet the challenges posed by the latest developments both in the nuclear and conventional realms in South Asia," he said.
Replying to a question about the follow up of Prime Minister Imran Khan's recent visit to China, Faisal said a high-level Pakistan delegation will have talks with their counterparts in Beijing to sort out technical matters and finalise the modalities for further enhancing the existing bilateral and strategic cooperation between the two countries in diverse fields.
On the proposed Afghanistan peace talks in Moscow, he said a Pakistan delegation led by an additional secretary will attend the dialogue.
The spokesperson said Taliban leader Mullah Baradar was released to give an impetus to the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. He said Pakistan has always been emphasising the need for seeking a negotiated settlement on the Afghan issue with the participation of all stakeholders.
He said it is a matter of concern that a recent American report points out that the Afghan administration and the foreign forces are losing control over the security situation in the war-torn country. Responding to questions on Christian woman Asia Bibi who was recently released from jail, Faisal said she is still in Pakistan at a safe location.
Great Game Moves to Sea: Tripolar Competition in #IndianOcean. The dynamics of intensifying competition — #military, #economic, #diplomatic — in #SouthAsia, mainly between #China, #India, #Pakistan, and #UnitedStates. #CPEC #pakistannavy @WarOnTheRocks https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/the-great-game-moves-to-sea-tripolar-competition-in-the-indian-ocean-region/
Each state’s approach to the increasingly crowded Indian Ocean environs is informed by history, economic interests, and simple geography. Three significant divergences in the three countries’ frameworks are their perspectives on the Middle East, Pakistan’s regional role, and the balance between military and non-military foreign policy tools. Friction resulting from any of these divergences – what I call geo-strategic seams – could undermine the success of any one of these national strategies for the Indian Ocean arena. Ultimately, China’s more integrated strategy may give it an edge over America’s more disjointed approach and India’s more inward focus.
India, sitting in the middle of the Indian Ocean, defines the region as extending from the African littoral to Southeast Asia. In 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi put forward “Security and Growth for All in the Region,” or SAGAR, as an early, high-level articulation of the Indian vision. In 2017, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj specifically defined the region as extending from the Gulf of Aden in the west, through Chabahar Port in southwest Iran, and over to Burma and Thailand in the east. Notably, India does not view Pakistan as a part of this regional cooperation strategy, instead seeing it as an enemy. Similarly, India tries to isolate its long history of land border disputes with China from its wider policy towards the Indian Ocean, even though countering Beijing is one of New Delhi’s goals.
India’s focus on the Indian Ocean area is relatively new, dating back only to the 1990s. For most of the period since it gained independence in 1947, India has been preoccupied with land border threats posed by Pakistan and China, and has apparently lacked the ambition and capacity to exert influence beyond its immediate neighbors.
Unlike with India’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific, however, Pakistan is a central element of China’s approach, linking the maritime and continental components of the Belt and Road Initiative. India, and to a lesser degree the United States, views Pakistan as a declining power that should be internationally isolated for its support of terrorism. In contrast, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is one of the most important elements of the Belt and Road since it provides a direct land bridge from China to the Arabian Sea and allows trade access to support economic development in China’s restive west. Illustrating its priorities, China has promised some $60 billion to develop this corridor and has already made substantial investments in Pakistan focusing on energy and transport infrastructure, including the port of Gwadar in western Pakistan. While some doubt the viability of many of these projects, this investment clearly reflects Beijing’s view that Pakistan is essential to its regional strategy.
Importance Of Nuclear Submarines For Pakistan – OpEd
July 2, 2019 Anjum Sarfraz*
A submarine is a very powerful platform, because of its stealth features and ability to operate covertly. It plays vital role in naval warfare and as a strategic weapon carrier. It can operate under water for a considerable duration, hence cannot be easily detected; therefore it has become an essential constituent of modern navies.
Submarines (subs) are of four types, which differ mainly because of their propulsion system and weapons carried on board. Diesel powered attack submarines (SSK) while on surface use diesel engines for propulsion, and while traversing under water it runs on batteries which have limited endurance. To recharge, conventional subs have to come up to periscope depth for snorkeling very often, keeping in view battery conditions. It is very vulnerable while snorkeling; chances of detection by Anti-Submarine Warfare Forces (ASW) like maritime patrol aircraft, helicopter, and surface platforms are very high. It is relevant to mention that subs have no weapons against the aircrafts.
The endurance of SSKs has been increased by installing Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system. This allows additional submerged time and is particularly useful during evasion and transiting through areas of concentrated ASW activities. The advent of this technology has enhanced the submerged endurance but is still restricted in speed. The maximum speed is around 15 knots but it moves 3-5 knots while submerged to conserve batteries. These generate very less noise, hence difficult to detect.
Maximum operating depth is around 300 meters and tonnage 1000 to 3500. Weapons carried are anti-ship and anti-submarine torpedoes and sea mines. Also carry medium range (800Km) anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles. Next generation is nuclear propelled attack subs (SSN), nuclear powered guided missiles (SSGN) and nuclear powered ballistic missile carrying subs (SSBN). These have a nuclear power plant for propulsion with almost unlimited endurance, speed around 30 knots on surface as well as submerged, and maximum operating depth more than 500 meters. These are much heavier and noisy as compared to conventional subs. The displacement is from 4000 to 18000 tones. These are designed to remain deployed for much longer duration; only human fatigue is the restrictions. The main role of SSNs and SSGNs is to operate as ASW platforms for a carrier task force and convoy support operations.
It is obvious that Indian navy has sufficient knowledge of construction and operation of nuclear subs. PN has two Agosta and 3 Agosta 90 B (Khalid class) subs with AIP system. Two have been built in Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW). These have medium range land attack cruise missiles with nuclear warhead. In addition order for 8 latest versions of Chinese conventional subs with AIP system has been placed. Four will be built in Pakistan in KSEW. However, for long range land attack missiles and sustained deployment PN needs to have at least two nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles. Keeping in view Indian second strike capability, our government needs to start the project at the earliest. In the meantime PN may actively consider sending their officers and sailors to China or Russia for training on their nuclear submarines.
#Israel would welcome ties with #Pakistan. The #Muslim giant could become the next success in Israel’s growing acceptance around the world. Should #India worry? https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-would-welcome-ties-with-pakistan-should-india-worry-1.7805334
Behind the scenes, Israel and Pakistan have interacted occasionally. Yet the only public meeting between officials of the two states, the famous handshake between Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart Khursheed Kasuri in Turkey on September 1, 2005, did not produce a thaw in the official traditional hostile posture against Israel. This hostility is well rooted in the prevailing Muslim culture in Pakistan. Moreover, the Islamist circles in that country carry considerable political weight and vocally oppose a change in Pakistan’s foreign policy toward Israel.
Nevertheless, the recurrent debates in Pakistan over Israel reflect the latter’s improved international standing. The Pakistanis cannot ignore the shift in attitudes of the Sunni elites in the Arab world toward Israel. When in 1991 the United States convened the Madrid peace conference, all Arab states accepted the invitation and agreed to sit with the Israeli delegation, signaling a greater acceptance of Israel in a U.S.-dominated world. Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties with Israel. The 1993 Oslo Accords between Israel and the PLO reinforced this trend of political realism.
Based at Karachi, the Pakistan Navy operates a fleet of five diesel-electric submarines and three MG110 mini submarines.  Pakistan views its submarine force as necessary to maintain its "credible minimum deterrence" posture. 
Capabilities at a Glance
Total Submarines in Fleet: 8
Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBNs): 0
Nuclear-Powered attack submarines (SSNs): 0
Diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs): 5
Mini Submarines (SSMs): 3
Air-independent propulsion (AIP) enabled: 3/8
The current fleet primarily consists of two Agosta-70 boats (Hashmat-class) and three modern Agosta-90B (Khalid-class) submarines, all of French design. Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KSEW) indigenously constructed Pakistan’s third Agosta-90B submarine PNS Hamza (S139) and commissioned it on 26 September 2008.  The PNS Hamza features French company Naval Group’s MESMA (Module d'EnergieSous-Marin Autonome) air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, making it the first conventional submarine built in South Asia to feature AIP propulsion.  In 2011, Pakistan retrofit the two earlier Agosta-90B vessels with MESMA during overhauls.
Turkish firm STM signed a contract yesterday to enhance capabilities of Pakistan Navy’s Agosta 90B Submarines.
The company will modernize four Pak submarines.
The bid for the submarine modernization tender was won by STM in June 2016 against the submarines' French manufacturers.
The Agosta-class submarine is a class of diesel-electric fast-attack submarine developed and constructed in France to succeed the Daphné submarines.
The Agosta–90B class submarines is an improved version with modern systems, better battery with longer endurance, deeper diving capability, lower acoustic cavitation and better automatic control (reducing crew from 54 to 36). It can be equipped with the MESMA air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. It is capable of carrying a combined load up to 16 torpedoes, SM39 Exocet anti-ship missile and seaborne nuclear cruise missiles.
The submarines were built through the technology transfer by France to Pakistan.
India says it accidentally fired missile into Pakistan
India in a statement said a technical malfunction led to the missile being fired into neighbouring Pakistan.
“On 9 March 2022, in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile,” the Indian ministry of defence said in a statement on Friday.
“It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.”
The ministry said the government had “taken a serious view and ordered a high-level Court of Enquiry” into the incident.
The statement came hours after Islamabad’s foreign ministry condemned what it called an “unprovoked violation of its airspace by an Indian origin ‘super-sonic flying object'”.
India’s charge d’affaires in Islamabad had been summoned to the foreign office for a “strong protest”, it added.
The “imprudent launch” had damaged property on the ground and put at risk civilian lives and aircraft in Pakistani airspace, it said, accusing India of “callousness towards regional peace and stability”.
Military experts have in the past warned of the risk of accidents or miscalculations by the neighbours, which have fought three wars and have engaged in numerous military clashes, most recently in 2019 which saw the air forces of the two engage in combat.
Both nations have nuclear weapons.
Pakistani military spokesman Major-General Babar Iftikhar said in a late evening news conference on Thursday that a “high-speed flying object” crashed near the eastern city of Mian Channu and originated from the northern Indian city of Sirsa, in Haryana state near New Delhi.
“The flight path of this object endangered many national and international passenger flights both in Indian and Pakistani airspace as well as human life and property of ground,” he said.
A Pakistan air force official said the object travelled at an altitude of 12,200 metres (40,000 feet), at Mach 3, and flew 124km (77 miles) in Pakistani airsp
Pakistan Holds Keel-Laying And Cutting-Steel Ceremonies For The Hangor-Class Submarines
The indigenous submarine development project in Pakistan has reached another milestone. The keel laying of the first HANGOR-class submarine (5th overall) and the steel cutting of the second submarine (6th overall) were carried out at Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KS&EW) on December 24, 2022.
The defense agreement between Pakistan and China included the development of 08 x HANGOR-class Submarines including four submarines under construction at Wuchang Shipbuilding Industry Group (WSIG) in China and the remaining four being built at KS&EW under the Transfer of Technology (ToT) agreement. The construction work of the first submarine to be made at KS&EW Pakistan commenced on Dec 21 and now the Keel Laying is being laid which is a major milestone in the history of any naval vessel being constructed. Concurrently, construction work on the subsequent submarine has started with its Steel Cutting at the same shipyard.
HANGOR-class Submarine is capable to undertake a variety of missions as per operational dictates. The submarine possesses advanced stealth features and is fitted with state-of-the-art weapons and sensors to operate under a multi-threat environment and can engage targets at stand-off ranges.
The Pakistan Navy does not offer any details about the Hangor-class submarines’ subsystems or specific weapon systems. The Stirling AIP system is used in China Shipbuilding and Offshore International Company’s (CSOC) S26 design, on which many experts assume the Hangor is based, but Pakistani officials have not publicly revealed the propulsion system of Hangor-class sub
Naval News comments on Hangor-class project:
The Hangor-class submarines are an export variant of the PLAN’s Type 039A/041 Yuan-class submarines. Pakistan accepted the purchase of eight submarines from China in April 2015. According to the agreement, four of the submarines will be built in Pakistan’s KSEW at the same time as the other four would be produced in China.
According to the Pakistani defense blog Quwa, Hangor-class submarines will be 76 meters long and have a displacement of 2800 tons, making them slightly shorter but heavier than the original S26 design.
Currently, PN operates three Agosta 90B air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines and two Agosta 70 diesel-electric submarines. Three Agosta 90B subs have been undergoing a mid-life upgrade under a contract signed in 2016 with the Turkish STM Company as the prime contractor. STM delivered the first upgraded submarine, PNS Hamza, in 2020. The scope of modernization is the replacement of the Fire Control System, Sonar Suite, Electronic Warfare System, Radar, and Periscope System (Navigation and Assault).
The eight Hangor Class submarines will significantly strengthen the Pakistan Navy. Pakistan is likely to improve its A2/AD capabilities in the region after the project is completed. Though no official confirmation has been made on the weapon systems, it is clear that Pakistan would obtain deep strike capability if the Hangor-class submarines were outfitted with Babur-3 SLCMs.
Congratulation to Me as a Pakistani
I exported first batch of Pakistan ���� food products to Israel ���� market
Dates, Dry fruit, Spice single container. My video
Rare Trade Occurs Between Pakistan, Israel
ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN —
An association of American Jews on Thursday hailed what it said was the first shipment from Pakistan of food products offloaded in Israel.
The transaction this week involved Pakistani-Jewish businessman Fishel BenKhald and three Israeli businesspeople, the American Jewish Congress said in a statement from its New York headquarters.
BenKhald lives in Karachi, the largest city in the Muslim-majority nation, where he runs a Jewish kosher certification business for food manufacturers exporting products to destinations worldwide. He disclosed the rare bilateral trade via Twitter on Tuesday.
The businessman posted a video clip of his items, including dates, dry fruit and spices, on display in a Jerusalem market. The clip has since garnered more than 640,000 views.
"I was not expecting it to be taken that big of a deal," BenKhald said in written comments to VOA, adding that this was not the first export of Pakistani products to Israel.
"The Israeli government and buyers have no problem accepting the direct shipment from Pakistan,” he said, adding that Israel does not have a problem sending payments to Pakistani banks.
BenKhald's initiative was mainly praised by his Pakistani Twitter followers, including journalists, politicians and businesspeople, some of whom asked for his advice on how to sell their products to Israel. He attempted to reply to every message.
"Congrats brother, you are doing excellent service that diplomats and politicians couldn't do," wrote Syed Wiqas Shah, a prime-time television news show host.
"Time for both the countries to initiate dialogue and for this citizens-to-citizens contact could play a vital role in bringing both the countries close to each other," wrote Zameer Ahmed Malik.
Pakistani officials did not immediately comment on the rare trade.
Islamabad does not have diplomatic ties with Israel and refuses to recognize it as a sovereign state until the state of Palestine is established — a long-running policy of many Muslim-majority countries.
But the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain forged relations with Israel in 2020 under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords. Sudan and Morocco followed suit.
"Trade exhibits hosted by the UAE helped Pakistani and Israeli businessmen conclude a deal that enabled this week's Pakistani shipment to Israel," the American Jewish Congress noted. "We welcome this small step that can have wider implications for Israeli and Pakistani economies and for the region at large."
Pakistan is an acknowledged nuclear power and Israel is widely understood to have nuclear weapons. The two countries have held secret meetings on security-related issues since their foreign ministers met publicly in 2005. Pakistani Islamic groups and right-wing parties vehemently oppose forging bilateral ties with Israel over the Palestinian issue.
Pakistani citizens are barred from visiting Israel because the country's passport clearly says it is valid for all countries of the world except Israel.
BenKhald was among a group of Pakistanis who undertook a rare trip to Israel last year and visited the Jewish prayer site in Jerusalem known as the Western Wall. The 15-member group of primarily Pakistani Americans, who traveled on their U.S. passports, was organized by an American Muslim women's activist group in collaboration with an Israeli organization promoting ties with Muslim countries.
Post a Comment