Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Pakistanis Rank Above Neighbors on Gallup Wellbeing Index 2012

Gallup 2012 Wellbeing survey reports that 20% of Pakistanis say they are "thriving", down from 32% last year. However, the report shows that more of them are still better off than their neighbors in Bangladesh (16% thriving) and India (11% thriving). The number of those "thriving" increased in Bangladesh by 3% and declined in India by 6%.

 The fact that the number of Pakistanis who consider themselves thriving is down from 1 in 3 last year to 1 in 5 now is understandable because of  many serious and worsening crises Pakistan  is facing today. The real question is who are these 20%? And why do they say they are thriving?

Here are some of the possible reasons:

1. Rising consumption of durables (cars, motorcycles, tractors, Appliances) and non-durables (FMCGs or fast-moving consumer goods) as well as increasing cement sales are indicative of the underlying strength of the economy.

2. Pakistan's undocumented economy is continuing to thrive as seen in packed shopping malls and restaurants.

3. There are double digit increases in cash remittances flowing in to Pakistan from the world's seventh largest diaspora, rising 21.45 percent to $9.73 billion in the first nine months of the 2011/12 fiscal year.

4. Karachi stock index is booming, hitting new 4-year highs. Share prices are driven by healthy profits and foreign buying, making KSE-100 the third fastest growing index in the world.  

5. Even the preliminary official estimates are indicating that Pakistan's nominal per capita income has increased by 9% to $1,372 in 2011-12 from $1,258 in 2010-11.

6. Preliminary estimates are showing that poverty rate in Pakistan has declined from 17.2 per cent in 2008 to slightly over 12 per cent in 2011.

The Gallup survey confirms that only 28% of Pakistanis have confidence in their national government. In my view, it stems from the obvious failure of the state in delivering basic services such as rule-of-law, security and electricity to the people .  The best way to improve the wellbeing of the people is to improve governance, reduce corruption and persuade people to pay taxes to give the state more resources.

 Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12

US Technical Analyst Bullish on Pakistan

Pakistan on Goldman Sachs' Growth Map

Pakistan's 64 Years of Independence

Goldman Sachs & Franklin-Templeton Bullish on Pakistan

Emerging Market Expert Investing in Pakistan

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend

Genomics & Biotech Advances in Pakistan

The Growth Map by Jim O'Neill

Pakistan Rolls Out 50Mbps Broadband Service

More Pakistan Students Studying Abroad

Inquiry Based Learning in Pakistan

Mobile Internet in South Asia

Online Courses at Top International Universities

53 comments:

Anonymous said...

pakistan's official poverty cutoff rate is 1700 pakistani rs/month, the equivalent of 1 $ a day(PPP). By contrast, india's cutoff of 32 rs a day is around 1.8$ a day(PPP). huge difference there.

S Qureshi said...

So true, I can see in my friends and family.
But more needs to be done to unleash the potential of common Pakistanis. Just let the private enterprise flourish. Pakistan immediately needs 200 more universities (one each at Tehsil level), 100 medical colleges, 100 engineering universities, 100 large hospitals, 100 small airports and 200 new industrial estates.

1. Govt. should lease the state land for 99 years at Rs.1 per year to already established private universities, colleges and residential schools to expand to other provinces and cities.

2. Same way offer land on lease to already established private hospitals to expand to other area of the country.

There is so much empty barren land available all over Pakistan. Govt. should create an authority and put some rules and then with conditions give away this land to entrepreneurs. Today land is the most expensive item to start a venture like university, hospital, industry etc.

Instead of importing education, we should export education and make Billions like Australia, USA and UK etc., where our students go every year.

FarhanJ said...

Can you tell the sample size and which region the survey was conducted. Also how reliable is gallup survey?

raman said...

Well, the gallup wellbeing Index is just based on survey of people and not facts related to the economy. If paki's are happy with the very less resources they have, So be it. It just shows the lack of ambition not the state of the upliftment. Even China fares below pakistan in the number of thriving people, that doesn't mean it worse off than pakistan.

As for all your data provided, why don't you mention

1) Pakistan in real terms, grew at a meager 3.7% ( even after playing politics) which is the lowest in the Indian subcontinent.

2)Exports have declined in pakistan whereas all its neighbors have increased it.

4)Even after having inflation much greater than India's, nominal GDP hasn't grown as fast.

5)Most terrorist attacks in the subcontinent happen in pakistan.

6) poverty numbers are cooked just like your GDP numbers as mentioned by your journalists.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=107105&Cat=9&dt=5/8/2012

7) pakistan receives maximum aid per capita in the Indian subcontinent.

8) pakis buy 1/11 the number of cars, exports 1/12 the number of goods, receiver 1/40 the amount of FDI than India while having 1/6 the population.

9) By the way, your per capita numbers are also faked in the most obvious manner. your government has assumed the population to be 177 million when according to the census it is 195 million.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=13514&Cat=13&dt=3/29/2012

10) As for your underground economy, Firstly no one can actually put a number to it. Secondly, Every nation in the subcontinent has a vast underground economy and its figures eventually pop up in official figures and the so called overground economy. Take cement sales, a lot of it is sold off the record but the overall production is put in records. Even alot of shops, do not show their income as they are below the income taxation limit but the sell branded products ranging from foods, to cosmetics and so on and these figures pop up in the sales figures of the company. So please do not give me this underground economy crap!

Riaz Haq said...

Anon:"pakistan's official poverty cutoff rate is 1700 pakistani rs/month, the equivalent of 1 $ a day(PPP). By contrast, india's cutoff of 32 rs a day is around 1.8$ a day(PPP)."

I'm afraid you have it backwards.

Pak Rs 1700 a month works out to $1.56 a day in terms of purchasing power. This is well above the Indian govt’s poverty line of just $1.03 in PPP dollars.

The 2011 World Bank data showed that India’s poverty rate of 27.5%, based on India’s current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than Pakistan’s 17.2%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with similar or lower poverty rates than Pakistan’s.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/05/world-bank-on-poverty-across-india-in.html

Riaz Haq said...

FarhanJ: "Can you tell the sample size and which region the survey was conducted. Also how reliable is gallup survey?"

You can read the Gallup survey methodology at:

http://www.gallup.com/se/128171/Country-Data-Set-Details.aspx

Oostur said...

Riaz,
Pakistani's like to brag. If you really want to know ask someone else about them.
This goes with: Hamare garh me to soney ke palang thay.

Riaz Haq said...

Oostur: "Riaz,
Pakistani's like to brag. If you really want to know ask someone else about them."

If Pakistanis as a people were indeed braggers as you suggest, then 80% of them in the 2012 Gallup survey would not have said they are either struggling or suffering.

To explain the significance of the 20% who say they are thriving, you have to understand how democracy and electoral politics work in Pakistan and many other democracies.

The voter turnout in 2008 elections in Pakistan was just 44%. The PPP got 30% of the votes cast making up only about 13% of the registered voters to emerge as the single largest party. PML (N) received about 20% of the votes or approval of just 9% of the registered voters to finish in second place.

The ruling politicians operate a vast system of political patronage that allocates state's resources and formulates policies to satisfy their base.To win the next election, the PPP needs just 13% of the vote in the next election to stay in power. To maintain its base in rural Sind and southern Punjab, the PPP has done the following to keep it loyal:

1. Raised crop prices significantly to ensure a yearly transfer of over Rs. 300 billion income from cities which benefits the landed class and the rural folks who support the PPP.

2. Allocated the lion's share of development funds in Larkana & Multan and given contracts to their cronies to build roads, airports, etc.

3. Given billions of rupees in aid for Benazir Income Support Program most of which goes to those favored by PPP politicians.

4. Give lots of state jobs to its cronies to plunder the state's resources.

The PML(N), the ruling party in Punjab province, is engaging in similar acts of patronage of its base to maintain their loyalty and vote bank in the next election.

Imran Khan is the new kid on the block. He may take some of PML (N)'s votes. He is no threat to the PPP or its ANP and MQM allies.

So barring any serious military intervention or ISI manipulation of elections, the Pakistani parliament is likely to remain basically unchanged after the next election.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's the latest per capita income data from Economic Surveys of India & Pakistan:

India's per capita income for 2011-12 Rs 60,972, according to Economic Survey of India 2011-12. It translates into US $1143.09, using INR 53.25 to a US dollar.

The preliminary official estimates are indicating that Pakistan's nominal per capita income has increased by 9% to $1,372 in 2011-12 from $1,258 in 2010-11.

http://indiabudget.nic.in/survey.asp

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-107322-Size-of-economy-rises-to-Rs206trn-after-GDP-growth-revision

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Nation report on UNESCAP's projection on Pakistan's economy:

The economy of Pakistan is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2012, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Survey of Asia and Pacific.In its report on Thursday, it said the gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2012 which is an improvement from 2.4 percent growth in 2011.Speaking at the launch of report, economist Dr Ashfaq Hassan, said the economic growth of the country “has increased mainly due to the enhanced output of agriculture sector”. He said the agriculture sector was improving due to the post-flood recovery in cotton, rice, wheat, sugar cane and other minor crops.Dr Ashfaq said cut in monitory policy by 200 basis points by the State Bank of Pakistan also supported the economic growth of the country."Pakistan, after several increases in the policy rate, lowered the policy rate by 50 basis points in July 2011 and further by 150 basis points in October, 2011 despite inflation remains elevated. The moves were aimed at stimulating private investment and economic growth."The GDP growth in the country slowed considerably to 2.4 percent in fiscal year 2011 from 3.8 percent in the previous year, mainly due to prevailing security concerns, the exogenous shock from elevated oil prices and unprecedented floods in a large part of the country and shortage of electricity and natural gas have also hampered the economic growth, he added.The economic survey of Asia reported that to reduce the budget deficit in Pakistan, the government was making efforts to improve tax compliance and broaden the tax base.The report said that current account of balance of payments in the country registered surplus in 2011."In Pakistan, the external sector registered a surplus on the current account, making it a bright spot of the economy in 2011", the report added.According to the report the exports increased by 29.3 percent and workers' remittances reached an historic level of more than $11.2 billion in 2011.Rising prices of value-added textiles helped propel the rapid growth of exports. Foreign exchange reserves also increased considerably.The report further said that in order to address energy shortages, the government should take various measures including setting up viable new power projects, minimizing transmission and distribution losses including theft of electricity, increasing exploration of natural gas, crude oil and coal, tapping of regional markets and setting up infrastructure for energy imports.The report said that widespread poverty continues to be major challenge in South Asia. "To fight against poverty, countries need to continue to implement economic reforms to improve productivity, strengthen public institutions, improve economic governance and build social safety nets to protect the more vulnerable segments of the population", the Economic Survey of Asia added.Clovis Freire, representative said on the occasion that Asia and the Pacific faces another year of slowing growth as demand for its exports falls in developed nations and capital costs rise, but the region will remain the anchor of global economic stability.He said that the growth rate of the region's developing economies is projected to slow down to 6.6 percent in 2012 from 7.0 percent last year compared to a strong 8.9 per cent in 2010.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/11-May-2012/-pakistan-economy-to-grow-by-4pc

Rishi said...

Budget forecasts: Forex reserves to almost halve by June 2013 – The Express Tribune

Well read this and you would find where Pakistan is headed to. I agree Pakistan has achieved some good things but comparing that with India's achievement is futile. India even with its poverty and a huge landmass have progressed beyond what Pakistan could achieve in next 10 years. India is currently atleast 10 yrs ahead of Pakistan.

Anonymous said...

Rishi, I am an indian and I don't gloat about dwindling Pak reserves because we too will face the same situation. There is a prediction that unless India corrects itself fiscal situation, Rupee will depreciate to 75 per dollar. At that time we can formally join Pakistan.

That being said, I do agree that Pakistan is way behind. The fact that 60% of Pak exports is still towels and underwears (known by a fancier name called textiles), tells how backward is their economy. No IT, engineering (india exports cars, train locomotives and rail cars), not to mention India is a growing force in pharma research.
India's long term investment in education has paid off.
There was a tv program in Pak where they discussed their failure. Available in youtube.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "That being said, I do agree that Pakistan is way behind. The fact that 60% of Pak exports is still towels and underwears (known by a fancier name called textiles)"

What you export does not define what your industry produces. Have you heard the proverb "shoemaker's children have no shoes"? That applies to India better than any other country. A case in point is all the talk about IT where Pakistan actually leads India in its use at home...an example is Pakistan's NADRA which has had the world's largest biometric data base for years while India is still struggling with it.

Notwithstanding the uniformed or biased critics you cite on TV shows, Pakistanis spend more time in schools and colleges and graduate at a higher rate than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. The result is that Pakistan has a vibrant industrial sector that produces auto, steel, pharma, chemicals, cement, textiles, etc etc. It also has a large service industry delivering financial, IT, engineering and other services.

Tons of WB and UN data shows that avg Pakistani is less poor, less hungry and enjoys better sanitation and higher std of living than a avg Indian. And India remains home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry, illiterates who still defecate in the open.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/08/pakistan-ahead-of-india-in-graduation.html

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/08/63-years-after-independence-india.html

Imran said...

Oostur:"Pakistani's like to brag. If you really want to know ask someone else about them.
This goes with: Hamare garh me to soney ke palang thay."

The focus is on ‘Thay’, what you have today counts..... Its the past aristocracy they crave about. Let there be a reminder, Bahadur Shah Zafar died in a cell and his crown Princes were begging on the streets....

Anonymous said...

A case in point is all the talk about IT where Pakistan actually leads India in its use at home...an example is Pakistan's NADRA which has had the world's largest biometric data base for years while India is still struggling with it.
==============

in that case congrats to Pak for producing world class IT folks. Should be a matter of time before Pak upends India as #1 destination for iT offshoring. Not.!!!
It is not even in top 10 and does not look like being one too.

"Notwithstanding the uniformed or biased critics you cite on TV shows,..."

it is quality man, not quantity. Pak graduates have to prove themselves in knowledge based industries. As things stand, they are multiple rungs below India in capabilities in knowledge based.

Stick to the point Riaz. Just because more cows shit on indian roads does not mean Pakistanis are intellectually as capable as indians. Applying your brilliant logic, just because America as a country has trillions of debt, americans must be poorer than Indians. Man, I now think myself as smart as you.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "India as #1 destination for iT offshoring. Not.!!!"

I know it's a matter of pride for some of you to be exploited as the cyber coolies by the West....doing low-paid call center work and other repetitive low-end work while 70% of Indians toil on the farms and in textile mills on even less.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/07/indian-it-sweatshops-exploiting-cyber.html

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/10/agriculture-andtextiles-employ-most.html

Anon: "it is quality man, not quantity."

What quality? Do you know the poor quality of Indian education was on full display when Indian kids ranked near the bottom on international tests like TIMSS & PISA.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/12/pisa-timss-confirm-low-quality-of.html

Anon: "Just because more cows shit on indian roads.."

It's not just more cows...it's the majority of Indian citizens who still practice open defecation.

India will not reach its Millennium Development Goal on sanitation before 2047, while Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal will not achieve the target before 2028, according to a United Nations report released on World Toilet Day 2011.

In October last year, India's rural development minister Jairam Ramesh said his nation's rivers have been turned into open sewers by 638 million Indians without access to toilets. He was reacting a UNICEF report that said Indians make up 58% of the world population which still practices open defection, and the sense of public hygiene in India is the worst in South Asia and the world.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/11/india-pakistan-off-track-off-target-on.html

ashwin said...

"while 70% of Indians toil on the farms and in textile mills on even less." Correction it is less than 45% who engage in farming in India but it doesn't matter that how many of them do as the per capita income of these poor Indians($3,700 ppp) is more than that of the rich,ultra modern,sophisticated people of pakistan($2,700).And it doesn't change the fact that India is the world leader in IT services even if they do repetitive low end work and get exploited whereas the educated youth in pakistan is struggling to find jobs due to the failed economy and flocking to the west.

Riaz Haq said...

Ashwin: "Correction it is less than 45% who engage in farming in India but it doesn't matter that how many of them do as the per capita income of these poor Indians($3,700 ppp) is more than that of the rich,ultra modern,sophisticated people of pakistan($2,700)."

CORRECTION! India is rural society and much less urbanized than Pakistan.

60% of Indians work directly or indirectly in agriculoture and 10% in textile industry.

Your per cap income figures are bogus, as is the PPP correction factor 2.9 for India and 2.3 for Pakistan.

Here's the latest per capita income data from Economic Surveys of India & Pakistan:

India's per capita income for 2011-12 Rs 60,972, according to Economic Survey of India 2011-12. It translates into US $1143.09, using INR 53.25 to a US dollar.

The preliminary official estimates are indicating that Pakistan's nominal per capita income has increased by 9% to $1,372 in 2011-12 from $1,258 in 2010-11.

Anonymous said...

http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/genesis-of-india-structure-doctrine.html

Sada said...

There is no correlation between education tests and what nations do. USA is ranked very low in such tests.
Russia has produced 27 Nobel scientist and economist and yet there is not a single global brand from Russia. Even top 5 vodka producers are non russian.
India's achievement in knowledge based economy is phenomenal. They are coming up in manufacturing too. A simple google on "R&D india opens" would tell what the top tech companies from Intel to Samsung are doing in India. India has produced more patents in a year than all islamic countries combined in 25 yrs.
The key thing is that Islamic countries are completely out of the picture, as if they don't even exist. Dr. Hoodbhoy is right that about muslims clinging to past glory because at one time muslims were the only ones doing somethign significant in science.

Mahesh said...

UNESCP's projection of the Indian Economy:

'•  The Indian economy's strong fundamentals, namely high savings and investment rates and rapidly expanding labour force and middle class will ensure a steady economic performance with some volatility in GDP growth rates from year to year. The economy of India is expected to expand by 7.5% in 2012, an improvement from 6.9% in the previous year. There are indications that the economy is turning around as core sectors, including manufacturing, show signs of recovery.'

Hanif said...

The Gallup Poll that you cite doesn't always reflect "economic or social" wellbeing. It is more a reflection of people's attitudes about their lives especially in the US and other western countries. In China (urban population only) it is more a reflection of savings.

Also its margin of error is +/-2.1 to 5.8%! More on that from Gallup:

Results are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted between 2005 and 2009 in 155 countries. For results based on the total samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranges from ±2.1 percentage points in China to ±5.8 percentage points in Zambia. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Riaz you are reading TOO MUCH into these odd ball polls.

Riaz Haq said...

Hanif: "Results are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted between 2005 and 2009 in 155 countries."

I disagree. Click here
to read details of data collection.

It explains that the data for this survey was collected Apr 25-May 14 of 2011 in Pakistan from 1000 people face-to-face in Urdu with a margin of error of 3.7%.

For India, it says the data was gathered from April 11 to June 16 2011 face-to-face in multiple regional languages from 3,518 people with a margin of error of 2%.

http://www.gallup.com/se/128171/Country-Data-Set-Details.aspx

Riaz Haq said...

sada: "USA is ranked very low in such tests."

Very low? really?

The average child in HP & TN is right at the level of the worst OECD or American students (only 1.5 or 7.5 points ahead). Contrary to President Obama's oft-expressed concerns about American students ability to compete with their Indian counterparts, the average 15-year-old Indian placed in an American school would be among the weakest students in the classroom, says Lant Pritchett of Harvard University. Even the best TN/HP students are 24 points behind the average American 15 year old.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/12/pisa-timss-confirm-low-quality-of.html

Unlike Indian students who learn by rote, teaching of American students is much more inquiry-based that encourages creativity & curiosity to prepare them to do original work.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/01/inquiry-based-learning-for-pakistani.html

sada: "A simple google on "R&D india opens" would tell what the top tech companies from Intel to Samsung are doing in India."

What passes for R&D in India is stuff done with mature tools & technologies that has already been done thousands of times in the US & the West. It's really routine work that requires little or no thinking and costs much much less to do in India. A simple case of cost arbitrage.

Hanif said...

I really don't see much value of this poll to the common man. Riaz do you really think a sample size of 1000 and an error margin of 3.7% and Gallup can't take the pulse of an entire country of 180 million.

The info I quoted was from it's previous poll.

Riaz Haq said...

Hanif: "I really don't see much value of this poll to the common man. Riaz do you really think a sample size of 1000 and an error margin of 3.7% and Gallup can't take the pulse of an entire country of 180 million."

A random sample size of 1000 adults in a scientific poll is statistically sufficient for 95% confidence.

As I explained in an earlier comment here, it is also important to understand that the PPP emerged as the single largest party in national parliament in 2008 elections with just 13% of the registered voters voting for it....well below the 20% who say they are "thriving" in the latest Gallup poll. So the chances of the PPP forming and leading coalition are pretty high unless the "common man" turns out in huge numbers to vote against the PPP and its allies in the next elections.

Mahesh said...

This idea of not learning by rote at all is bogus. Rote learning is necessary sometimes learning new words and their meanings so that you can use them in sentences. Multiplication is learned by rote and so is aspects in Biology and the Periodic Table in Chemistry.

How many Nobel Laurates have Pakistan produced and how many are from India?

You show lot of envy and I can see why. Internationally, not much good is coming out of
Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

Mahesh: "Rote learning is necessary sometimes learning new words and their meanings so that you can use them in sentences"

Yes, but only a small percentage of it. In India, it's all rote all the time all the way.

Some India watchers such as Fareed Zakaria, an Indian-American who often acts as a cheerleader for India in the US, have expressed doubts about the quality of education even at the elite Indian Institutes of Technology. In his book "The Post-American World", Zakaria argues that "many of the IITs are decidedly second-rate, with mediocre equipment, indifferent teachers, and unimaginative classwork."

Mahesh: "How many Nobel Laurates have Pakistan produced and how many are from India? "

One Pakistani scientist has been awarded a Nobel prize.

As to a couple of Science Nobels for Indians, a nation of 1.2 billion people, these Nobels were awarded to Indians who had the benefit of advanced education and training in the West. The non-Science Nobels don't count because of the political nature of these awards.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2009/09/poor-quality-of-higher-education-in.html

Sada said...

http://broadeducation.org/about/crisis_stats.html


"American students rank 25th in math and 21st in science compared to students in 30 industrialized countries.
America’s top math students rank 25th out of 30 countries when compared with
top students elsewhere in the world. [1]"

Doesn't seem high to me.

"Unlike Indian students who learn by rote, teaching of American students is much more inquiry-based that encourages creativity & curiosity to prepare them to do original work. "

The same original work which later on goes to india. What a joke?

Your whole argument seem to take the best and worst case wherever it suits. Like you claim all americans do original work (less than 2% do) and all Indians do crap work (more than 25% do better work than 80% of Americans do).

"What passes for R&D in India is stuff done with mature tools & technologies that has already been done thousands of times in the US & the West. It's really routine work that requires little or no thinking and costs much much less to do in India. A simple case of cost arbitrage."

Well of course it is to much to expect proof from you. And of course anyone can go to the websites of tech companies and see what they themselves talk about their work in India. For starters
http://www.samsung.com/in/aboutsamsung/ourbusinesses/samsunginindia/RD.html

hello intel. Et tu?

http://www.infoworld.com/d/hardware/india-plays-growing-role-in-intel-rd-643


I am sure Pakistanis would die to work for such routine jobs.

Your effort to denigrate India's phenomenal success with your own theories reminds me of a french joke. A wife comes back early from our work only to find her husband in bed with another woman. Husband says "are you going to believe me or your eyes" :)

Seriously, if Pakistanis spent as much time to improve their education as you spend here arguing with Indians, Pakistan would have got some chance in such jobs too. As things stand, no one even seem to think they exist.

Mahesh said...

Venkatraman Ramakrishnan, Chemistry
Amartya Sen, Economics
Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar, Physics
Mother Teresa, born in Ottoman Empire, Peace
Har Gobind Khorana, Physiology
C. V. Raman, Physics
Rabindranath Tagore, Literature

From the list above I see more than a couple Nobel prizes in science or mathematics and all of them got their Bachelors from an Indian college.

If you say Zakaria is wrong about Pakistan what makes you think he is right about India? And he graduated from Bombay College!

Riaz Haq said...

Sada & Mahesh:

I suggest you read a Harvard report titled "India Shining and Bharat Drowning" before continuing this further.

http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tzajonc/india_shining_jan27_flat.pdf

Ashwin said...

"I suggest you read a Harvard report titled "India Shining and Bharat Drowning" before continuing this further. "

So the West and the US are always right about India when the news is negative but they are always wrong if they are negative about Pakistan!!!!!

Riaz Haq said...

Ashwin: "So the West and the US are always right about India when the news is negative..."

If you actually bother to read it, you'll find it's not necessarily negative. It's not at all a hatchet job by a western bigot.

In fact, it's a serious research report by an Indian author with tons of data to support his findings.

http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~tzajonc/india_shining_jan27_flat.pdf

Just to give you its flavor, here's an excerpt from it:

There are two views that currently dominate thinking about educational policy in India. One
view—active proponents of which include prominent NGOs—is that Bharat is drowning. Average
learning levels are so low that the typical child will leave primary school without knowing how
to read or perform elementary mathematical operations. A second view—often expressed by those in the government and in the media—is that India is shining. This group points to India’s increasing global presence, the large number of Indian professionals in high paying jobs, and the dramatic growth of its service industry, particularly in information technology. As it turns out, both views contain an element of truth, and both views can be justified by presenting different pieces of the same data.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a BBC report on power cut and sanitation problems at the Indian parliament:

A foul smell emanating from sewage in a toilet in India's upper house of parliament, the Rajya Sabha, forced it to adjourn twice on Thursday.

Congress party lawmaker Rama Chandra Khuntia first complained of the smell when a minister was replying to a question in the House.

The first adjournment lasted for 15 minutes. But the continuing stink forced lawmakers to exit again.

Mr Khuntia told the BBC the smell was due to "poor maintenance".

"Everyone in the Rajya Sabha, panicked. Initially, we thought it was a gas leak. But then we realised the stench emanated from the toilet."

"We were told the smell from a toilet adjacent to a canteen found its way inside the House through air-conditioning ducts," Mr Khuntia said.

The incident comes three days after brief power cuts interrupted parliament proceedings.

Television news channel NDTV quoted the main opposition party BJP's Ravi Shankar Prasad as saying: "We talk of nuclear safety, we should at least ensure safety of smell in the House."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-18024831

vicks1980 said...

As an Indian, I object to you blaming sanitation facilities for the foul smell at the Indian parliament. With such a large number of politicians all together at one place, was it any wonder there was a stink? In fact, you ought to give credit to Indian civil engineering that inspite of the two houses of Parliament playing host to the scum of the earth, there is usually no stench at all.

abdulla said...

"The preliminary official estimates are indicating that Pakistan's nominal per capita income has increased by 9% to $1,372 in 2011-12 from $1,258 in 2010-11.".

Can you explain above figures, does it mean that GDP of Pakistan grew by 9%.

Riaz Haq said...

abdullah: "does it mean that GDP of Pakistan grew by 9%."

It means that Pakistan's nominal GDP grew by more than 9% when you take into account real gdp growth as well as population growth and inflation.

Anonymous said...

When President Obama mentioned that American kids have to compete with Chinese and Indian kids, it is obvious he is referring to eventual competition in the job market. Perhaps you will appreciate it once he changes India to Pakistan :)

BTW have you read the book "Breakount Nations: In pursuit of next economic miracle" by Ruchir Sharma, a Morgan Stanley Investment banker in emerging economies.

He was critical of all BRIC countries. I agree with his assessment.

Hanif said...

----
It means that Pakistan's nominal GDP grew by more than 9% when you take into account real gdp growth as well as population growth and inflation.
----

Riaz, do you think Zardari and his cronies will capitalize on that?

Personally i feel the economy has been sluggish since Zardari came to power.

No meaningful growth strategies have been implemented and that will hurt us in the future. Savings
rate is very low as a result and therefore there is no
growth impetus and it becomes a terrible cycle.

Years from now history will make this period the worst for Pakistan - economically speaking.

raman said...

TO ALL INDIANS OVER HERE!

Don't waste your time arguing with a raging lunatic like this person. Everyone knows a pakis time and life is worthless, that is why they are killed in droves by the westerners.

Let him believe in his delusions. The whole world knows where India stands as an emerging power and pakistan as a failed nations as documented by intellectuals all over the world. Our time is worth a lot. Just pity him for being born in poverty trapped terrorist country and bless him that he comes back as an Indian in his next life by which time pakistan wouldn't be there on the map of this world!

Post this Haq and be done with wasting Indians time as it is way way more precious than a pakis time like yourself!

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "Years from now history will make this period the worst for Pakistan - economically speaking."

Probably not the worst but pretty bad when compared with historic average of over 5% CAGR in real terms since 1947.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2010/09/brief-history-of-pakistani-economy-1947.html

Riaz Haq said...

raman: "Everyone knows a pakis time and life is worthless, that is why they are killed in droves by the westerners"

The fact is that hunger in "Shining" India is far more deadly for poor Indians than terror in Pakistan.

About 3000 Pakistanis died tragically in terrorist attacks last year in various parts of the country, according to government data. Putting it in perspective, however, hunger in India has proved far more deadly than terror in Pakistan. It claims as many Indian children's lives every day as all of the terror related deaths in Pakistan in a year, according World Bank HNP data. About 7000 Indians of all ages die of hunger every day, according bhookh.com.

"Everyone knows a pakis time and life is worthless, that is why they are killed in droves by the westerners."

You have now left no doubt that you are a racist and bigot who is incapable of engaging in serious debate on an important topic.

Pradeep said...

According to Global Hunger Index:
1990 1996 2001 2011
Tanzania 23.1 27.4 26 20.5
Pakistan 25.7 22 21.9 24
Rwanda 28.5 32.7 25.2 21
Liberia 23.5 26.9 25.8 21.5
Sudan 29.2 24.7 25.9 21.5
Djibouti 30.8 25.8 25.3 22.5
Madagascar 24.4 24.8 24.8 22.5
Mozambique 35.7 31.4 28.4 22.7
Niger 36.2 36.2 30.8 23
India 30.4 22.9 24.1 23.7

In percentage hungry.

There is some truth to Raman's comments. Riaz, you maybe a bigot as well perhaps in a closet because via your blogs you are insidiously spinning and modifying statistics to denigrate India.




Look at the GHI data, India has gone from 30.4 in 1990 to 23.7 in 2011 whereas, Pakistan from 25 to 24 in 2011 which is marginally highr

Riaz Haq said...

Pradeep: "Look at the GHI data, India has gone from 30.4 in 1990 to 23.7 in 2011 whereas, Pakistan from 25 to 24 in 2011 which is marginally highr"

I'm not sure if it's deliberate or inadvertent on your part, but your statement and data are both ABSOLUTELY WRONG!

In 2011, Pakistan's GHI score is 20.7 and it is ranked at 59 while India's score is worse at 25.7 ranking it at 67...India's hunger is even worse that hunger in poor sub-Saharan countries like Niger and Mozambique.

http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi11.pdf

Please read Wall Street Journal's series "Starving in India" to get better informed about how bad hunger is in India.

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2012/04/11/starving-in-india-surviving-on-toxic-roots/

Pradeep: "you maybe a bigot as well perhaps.."

If you think India's critics are bigots, then I suggest you read Indian blogger who goes by Cybergandhi on Escape From India blog.

http://escapefromindia.wordpress.com/

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a special CNN report on a Pakistani village by Wajahat Ali:

This is a story affecting millions of Pakistanis — and it does not involve suicide bombings, honor killings, extremism or President Zardari's mustache.

"What would you like to be when you grow up?" I asked Sakafat, a boisterous 12-year-old girl, while visiting a remote Pakistani village in the Sindh province.

"A scientist!" she immediately replied. "Why can't we be scientists? Why not us?"

The confident Sakafat lives in Abdul Qadir Lashari village, which is home to 500 people in Mirpur Sakro. It is in one of the most impoverished regions of Pakistan.

There was a characteristic resilience and optimism in this particular village. This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about Pakistan's often dysfunctional, surreal yet endearing daily existence.

The 500 villagers live in 48 small huts, except for the one "wealthy" family who recently built a home made of concrete. The village chief, Abdul Qadir Lashari, proudly showed off his village's brand-new community toilets, paved roads, and water pump that brings fresh water to the village.

These simple, critical amenities, taken for granted by most of us in the West, resulted from the direct assistance of the Rural Support Programmes Network, Pakistan's largest nongovernmental organization. RSPN has worked with thousands of similar Pakistani villages to help them achieve economic self-sufficiency.

I visited the Sindh village with RSPN to witness the results of using community organizing to alleviate poverty. The staff told me its goal was to teach villagers to "fish for themselves."

Every household in the Abdul Qadir Lashari village was able to reach a profit by the end of 2011 as a result of professional skills training, financial management, community leadership workshops and microloans.

Specifically, a middle-aged, illiterate woman proudly told me how she learned sewing and financial management and was thus able to increase her household revenue, manage her bills, and use a small profit to purchase an extra cow for the family. She was excited to introduce me to her cow, but sadly due to lack of time I was unable to make the bovine acquaintance.
--------
Asked what single thing she felt was most important most for her village, she replied education. Upon asking another elderly lady what she wishes for Pakistan, she repeated one word three times: "sukoon," which means peace.

When it was time to depart, the people of the village presented me with a beautiful handmade Sindhi shawl, an example of the craftwork the villagers are now able to sell for profit.

As I left the village with the dark red, traditional Sindhi shawl adorned around my neck, my thoughts returned to the 12-year-old girl, Sakafat, who passionately asked why she couldn't become a scientist.

I looked in her eyes and could only respond with the following: "You're right. You can be anything you want to be. And I have every confidence you will, inshallah ("God willing"), reach your manzil ("desired destination").

By focusing on education and local empowerment to lift the next generation out of poverty, Sakafat's dream could indeed one day become a reality for all of Pakistan.


http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/13/world/asia/pakistan-empowerment/index.html

HopeWins said...

Dr. Haq,

According to the BBC, our Eastern Neighbor has once again started severe discrimination against muslims. Even their untouchables get government support in terms of 50% job/university reservations/quotas etc, but they are now unjustly singling out muslims for brutal exclusion. Please see:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-17987662

It appears that their Supreme Court was responsible for this discriminatory decision; so I looked up to see who was on the court's bench.

As I suspected-- and as you so often say-- the all the judges appear to be racist-casteist brahmans who hate muslims and untouchables.

It also appears that these oppressive judges have illegally ammassed great personal wealth at the expense of poor muslims. In particular, Judges Serosh Homi Kapadia, Altamash Kabir, Jagdish Singh Khehar, Aftab Alam, Ranjana Prakash Desai, F.M. Ibrahim Kalifulla, Gyan Sudha Misra and Ranjan Gogoi especially seem to have amassed wealth disproportionate to their known/declared sources of income, as you can verify here:

http://www.supremecourtofindia.nic.in/assets.htm

Would you please research this topic and draw up a good strategy that our muslims brothers and sisters in the East could use to stop and reverse this unjust discrimination and looting?

Thank you.

ramesh said...

@ Hopewins

This is the typical extremist thought process of a muslim. Muslims expect everything for free. If your country is so giving towards Hindu's why doesn't it subsidize the amarnath yatra or other hindu festivals. On the other hand, you extremists kill, forcefully convert abduct Hindus.

Why should our taxes go in subsidizing hajj? It is of no source of development to our country. We are a secular nation. Hence, why should we please muslims by subsidizing their trip.

If they want it subsidized, let muslims set up donation communities and subsidize people of their faith.

There is something seriously wrong with your logic. Typical muslim logic- flawed and cynical. Please look at what a socially and mentally pathetic country you live in before commenting on others.

Twister said...

BISP figures for poverty disagree with the low figures published recently...

http://tribune.com.pk/story/380503/scraping-through-45-population-living-below-the-poverty-line-reports-bisp/

Riaz Haq said...

Twister: "BISP figures for poverty disagree with the low figures published recently.."

It seems that the difference stems from the fact that there are many different yardsticks being used to measure poverty. It'll be hard to reconcile between PSLM & BISP unless there is a common definition which could be those living below $1.25 or $2.00 in terms of purchasing parity dollars as used by the World Bank and various UN agencies.

http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/05/world-bank-on-poverty-across-india-in.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Guardian report on latest OECD happiness rankings:

For an indicator we have to use all the time, GDP has very few friends. The idea of a single number to show a country's economic power came from US Nobel-prize winning economist Simon Kuznets - and that's what GDP is, a measure of economic output.

What GDP misses is, arguably, more important than what it includes. Robert Kennedy argued that

the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile

Even Kuznets agreed that "the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income".

This government - like many others - is keen to find new ways to compare nations, which is the motivation behind the moves to measure happiness and life satisfaction - and you can read more about these here.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - OECD - has been trying a new approach: asking people what they think is important, via its Better Life Index.

The Index, launched a year ago, puts you in charge by allowing you to choose what matters to you - and how highly it should be ranked. Today it gets relaunched.

It's counted as a major success by the OECD, particularly as users consistently rank quality of life indicators such as education, environment, governance, health, life satisfaction, safety and work-life balance above more traditional ones. Designed by Moritz Stefaner and Raureif, it's also rather beautiful.

The top five countries in number of visitors are the United States (20%), France (8%), Canada (7%), Germany (6%) and the United Kingdom (6%). The BLI is now available in French. Translation is driven by usage statistics, thus German and Spanish are likely to be next languages given the number of users from German and Spanish-speaking countries.

One of the major criticisms of the index was that it didn't include inequality - and that's changing with the relaunch with new indicators on inequality and gender plus rankings for Brazil and Russia. A couple have been removed too: Governance has been renamed civic engagement, employment rate of women with children has been replaced by the full integration of gender information in the employment data and students' cognitive skills (e.g. student skills in reading, math and sciences) has replaced students' reading skills to have a broader view.

The OECD have built lots of apps off the back of the index, including this one, which offers real-time data as people fill it in.

The countries that consistently come top in users rankings (with 2012 place in brackets) are Denmark (life satisfaction and work-life balance), Switzerland (health and jobs), Finland (education), Japan (safety), Sweden (environment), and the USA (income).

The OECD has also given us the raw data behind the Better Life index too - check out this interactive to see how countries compare on everything from Housing to Employment. Download the data for yourself and let us know what you can do with it.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/may/22/better-life-index-oecd?newsfeed=true

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a Reuters' report raining the specter of Greek style debt crisis in India:

India's mounting economic and political woes are prompting market players to raise the specter of a Greek-style crisis in Asia's third largest economy.

This is not simply idle speculation. Last Friday, the rupee crashed to an all-time low against the dollar of 54.9 and it was stuck most of Tuesday at the psychologically significant Rs55/USD level, where the currency is seen as having no obvious technical support. And the implications of a rupee collapse would be immense.

"It could go to stratospheric levels against the dollar and it looks to me as if the Indian government is aiming at a de facto devaluation in an effort to prop up flagging economic growth. And you then have to worry about all the unpleasant boxes such an action would inevitably tick, such as straining further the country's already strained balance of payments as well as bringing on an almighty wave of inflationary pressure," said a credit analyst at a ratings agency in Singapore.

He added that a spike in the rupee would strain the cashflow of corporates and banks as they struggled to service dollar-denominated debt and that the odds of a widespread Indian debt restructuring would be low.

In his opinion the market will determine the rupee's level, with a formal devaluation seen as unlikely given the consequent need for interest rates to be pushed significantly higher to contain capital flight and counter toxic inflation levels.

This scenario was seen in the UK in 1992 when the country exited the ERM and the government pushed short term interest rates up to 15% from 10%, spending billions of pounds of reserves to defend the currency in the process.

Should something similar occur to India, it would almost certainly lose its coveted investment-grade rating, with a one-notch demotion required for that to occur. S&P has India on negative watch for its Baa3 foreign currency rating while Moody's and Fitch retain a stable outlook on the country.

As the country's government faces political impasse amid infighting, principally between prime minister Manmohan Singh and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on the subject of tax reform, and India limps from one corruption scandal to the next, the sense of decay is palpable.

Surprisingly, India's deteriorating economic fundamentals and toxic politics have not yet impacted the relative value of its issuers offshore debt. In fact, on Tuesday India's dollar offshore curve recovered the 10bp it had widened on Monday. But that situation is unlikely to hold much longer.

"As market players start to fret about the possibility of a full-blown rupee devaluation, you will see this start to impact spreads on the country's offshore curve. If the currency goes in a big way, you will have a unilateral replaying in India of the Asian financial crisis, which involved default on short-dated offshore debt and a mass round of debt restructuring. India is hanging in the balance right now, and the worst case scenario seems increasingly likely to play out," said a Hong Kong-based syndicate head.

Just as the tide moves against them, though, Indian corporates are seeing the need for offshore funding increase. According to the credit analyst, many Indian corporates have reached borrowing ceilings with local banks and are sizing up offshore bond issuance as a result. That would be a tall order and an expensive trip, though.

With massive convertible maturities coming up, some in dollars, a local market that is increasingly saturated and has less support from foreign investors and a closed dollar market, it seems inevitable that restructuring will soon become the main activity for Mumbai-based investment-bankers.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-india-devaluation-idUSBRE84L0N920120522

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an interesting excerpt from NY Times review of Ed Luce's book “In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India”:

Despite its robust democracy and honest elections, India faces the future saddled with one of the most corrupt government bureaucracies on earth. Mr. Luce encounters a woman in Sunder Nagri, a New Delhi slum, whose quest for a ration card entitling her to subsidized wheat and other staples involved bribing an official to get an application form. The form was in English, which she could not read, so she had to pay a second official to fill it out. When she turned up to claim her wheat, it was moldy and crawling with insects. The store owner had evidently sold his good government wheat on the black market.

In the northern state of Bihar, Mr. Luce writes, more than 80 percent of subsidized government food is stolen. Most ration cards are obtained through bribery, by Indians who are not poor. It’s the same story in nearly every area of an economy touched by the groping tentacles of a government that “is never absent from your life, except when you actually need it.”

As a former cabinet official tells Mr. Luce, corruption is not simply a nuisance or an added burden on the system. Rather, he says, “in many respects and in many parts of India it is the system.”

Mr. Luce, traveling the country’s rickety rail system, covers an enormous amount of ground. He inquires into the Kashmir dispute while dissecting India’s fraught relationship with Pakistan; marvels over New Delhi’s spanking-new subway system; describes the middle class rage for megaweddings; pays a visit to Bollywood and, in some of his most absorbing chapters, analyzes the changing caste system, the status of India’s Muslims and the alarming rise of Hindu nationalism.

All this and a visit to C2W.com, a Mumbai company that markets brands through the Internet, cellphones and interactive television shows. Its founder, Alok Kejriwal, is still in his 30s, and to Mr. Luce represents the new India.

“I am greedy,” he tells the author. “I have no trouble admitting to that.”

At one point, Mr. Luce ponders India’s constant state of chaos and compares it to a swarm of bees. From inside the swarm, things look random, but from the outside, the bees hold formation and move forward coherently.

Sometime in the 2020s, at current growth rates, India will overtake Japan to become the world’s third-largest economy. Greatness lies within its grasp, Mr. Luce argues, if it can figure out a way to restructure its inefficient agriculture, put millions of desperately poor people in jobs that pay more than a pittance, wake up to a potential H.I.V.-AIDS crisis and root out government corruption.

Mr. Luce takes a cautiously optimistic view. “India is not on an autopilot to greatness,” he writes. “But it would take an incompetent pilot to crash the plane.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/17/books/17grim.html

Riaz Haq said...

Here's a CNN report on Pakistani city of Sialkot which manufactures musical instruments, surgical equipment and sports goods:

Which cities can boast more than a dozen bagpipe factories? Edinburgh? Glasgow? How about, Sialkot, Pakistan?

Sialkot is located in north-east Pakistan, some 125 kilometers from the capital Lahore. Legend has it that the city started making bagpipes during the British Raj, when a Scottish businessman came to town and set up a factory.

More than a century later Sialkot is one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of bagpipes, with more than a dozen bagpipe factories, both big and small.

The bagpipe business became so successful that manufacturers started making and exporting other specialty items - including staples of American culture such as vintage basketballs, American footballs and even replica civil war uniforms.

Today the city manufactures hundreds of items. Sports companies such as Nike and Adidas make their soccer balls here. Dozens of kinds of musical instrument, and even surgical equipment, are made in Sialkot.

Naeem Qureshi, of the Sialkot chamber of commerce, told CNN’s Reza Sayeh that the city's exports are increasing, and are now worth $1.4 billion.

While Pakistan often makes headlines these days because of militant attacks and extremism, local manufacturers say security concerns are overblown. Pakistan has plenty of space, as well as cheap raw materials and labor. And local businesses say Sialkot is a perfect example of why it pays to invest in Pakistan and do business there.


http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/05/bagpipes-made-in-pakistan/