Foreign Investment Up, Load-shedding Down in PM Nawaz Sharif's First 100 Days

FDI is up and load-shedding is down during Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government's first 100 days. However, there has been little progress on resolving fundamental issues such as lack of security, growing budget deficits, high current account deficits and continuing heavy subsidies to the power sector and various public sector enterprises like Pakistan Steel Mills, PIA, Railways, etc.

Foreign Inflows Jump: 

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's first 100 days in office have seen a significant increase in foreign capital inflows.

Pakistan has $105.4 million foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first two month of the current fiscal year 2013/14 compared to $52.4 million received during the same month of the previous year, according to a Reuters' report. This is a continuation of the trend from the PPP government's last year in office which saw 76% year-over-year jump to reach nearly $1.5 billion foreign investment in fiscal year 2012-13.

Foreign remittances from Pakistani diaspora also saw a 7% increase to reach $2.64 billion in July-Aug 2013. IN addition, Pakistan reached a deal with IMF for $6.6 billion loan and the first tranche of $500 million was disbursed last week.

Load Shedding Decreases:

Circular debt payment of $5 billion by the government has induced power companies to buy more fuel and better utilize installed generating capacity in the last two months. As a result, the people are experiencing fewer hours of load shedding across the country.

The fundamental issue of the gap between cost of generating electricity and the electricity revenue receipts still remains. However, the Nawaz Sharif government is pushing higher electricity rates and lower fuel cost options to reduce this gap. Meanwhile, the circular debt has piled up again to nearly $1 billion in just the last two months. If this debt continues to mount and the government fails to clear it, the load shedding is likely to significantly increase soon.

Terrorism:

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government is trying to start talks with the Taliban militants in an effort to reduce the mounting death toll in terrorist attacks. An all-parties conference in Islamabad has endorsed peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP leadership has welcomed the talks offer but it has continued to kill soldiers, policemen and civilians to dictate terms to Pakistan government. This was brought in sharp focus when the Taliban killed a top general in Upper Dir recently. The Taliban appear to be exploiting the perceived weakness being communicated by the government in response to continuing attacks.

Recent data from South Asia Terrorism Portal indicates a decline in overall death rate from terrorism but it also shows that more security personnel are continuing to lose their lives in such attacks.

Structural Problems Remain:

Pakistan imports a lot more than it exports. Exports add up to about $25 billion while imports stand at about $45 billion. Similarly, Pakistani government spends a lot more than it takes in as revenue, leaving a budget gap of 6-7% of GDP. It is forced beg and borrow billions of dollars a year to fill this gap. Fundamental structural issues remain in terms of high current account deficits, widening gap between public revenue and spending, and large subsidies to public sector units including the power sector sapping public treasury. FBR is missing revenue target of Rs 2.5 trillion by Rs. 130 billion, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessment. Debt is accumulating again in the power sector. Economic growth is barely keeping up with population growth.  Creation of new jobs lags growth of new entrants into the work force. National savings rate is only about 10% of GDP which reduces domestic investments needed for the future.

Future:

Reviving economic growth is the biggest challenge facing the Sharif administration. It's going to be difficult to revive the economy without structural reforms to increase domestic and attract foreign investments, which in turn requires solving the basic issues of terrorism, energy shortages and  tax collection.

Here's a  video discussion on the subject and other topics:

http://vimeo.com/75110119


First 100 Days of Nawaz Sharif Government; Taliban’s Islam is false Islam; Sumbul case; Sheema Kermani from WBT TV on Vimeo.

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Pakistani Taliban Talks, Karachi Operation and Syrian Chem Weapons

There are more questions than answers after the All Parties Conference (APC) in Pakistan resolved to begin talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Karachi operation has run into resistance from MQM, the city's biggest political party. The United States and Russia have reached an agreement to account for, remove and destroy Syria's entire stockpile of chemical weapons.

All Parties Conference on Taliban Talks:

All Parties Conference (APC) held in Islamabad passed a resolution to begin talks with the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) without pre-conditions. There is no requirement for the TTP to stop killing innocent Pakistanis as a condition of talks. Soon after, the TTP welcomed the offer and then proceeded to kill a top general along with two other soldiers in Upper Dir district of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) province.

Is this the beginning of yet another surrender similar to the one that occurred after the 2009 APC on Swat when the federal and provincial governments ceded power to the TTP in Swat? Will this attempt also fail just like the 2009  ANP-led peace deal with the Taliban?

Karachi Operation:

Another APC led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif agreed to launch an operation in Karachi to stop rising rates of murder, kidnappings, extortion and other crimes in which criminals belonging to the political parties are involved. It started out well but soon turned into a mass protest by the MQM when one of its leaders was arrested on murder charges.

History shows that the MQM, the city's most powerful political party, will continue to be a problem until it is made part of the solution. Karachi has seen relative peace only when MQM has been allowed to run Karachi's local government as it did in Musharraf years. From 2000-2008, average annual murder rate declined to about 100 or less , a remarkably low figure for a megacity of at least 15 million residents.

Syrian Chemical Weapons:

The United States and Russia have reached an agreement to account for, remove and destroy Syria's entire stockpile of chemical weapons. Syrian President Basahar Al-Assad has accepted it and also offered to join the Chemical Weapons Convention. This deal has stopped the planned US strikes against the Assad regime at least for the moment. But for how long? Is it realistic that Assad and Russia would be able to live up to the deal to Obama's satisfaction? Will Obama act against Syria? Is Assad on his last legs? Would US then have to deal with the Al Qaeda affiliated rebels in Syria?

For those who doubt American resolve, it is important to remember the following: In spite of its great technological advances, the US still retains many vestiges of its Wild West. With its powerful gun-rights advocates in many western, mid-western and southern states, the US is still a gun-slinging frontier society in many ways which makes it jealously guard its exceptional status in the world. The US seeks to avoid the fate of other great empires of the past which were brought down by barbarians and desert tribesmen over the centuries.

US intelligence analyst and author George Friedman in his book "The Next 100 Years" describes the United States as "young and barbaric" with the barbarian instincts to fight off most threats, including those from the rag-tag bands of  tribesmen and barbarians who have toppled great empires of the past like the Roman empire, the Byzantine empire, the Persian empires, the Umayyid empire, the Abbasid empire and the Soviet empire.

Here's a video discussion on the above subjects:

http://vimeo.com/74552595


APC and talks with Taliban; Karachi operation; Syria from WBT TV on Vimeo.

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Divide and Conquer Pakistani Taliban

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Yet Another Peace Deal and Shia Blockade

Taliban Insurgency in Swat

Musharraf's Treason Trial

General Kayani's Speech on Terror War Ownership

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Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo 

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Syrian Situation; Taliban Talks; Zardari's Exit

Putin Challenges American Exceptionalism

"My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different,but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal." Russian President Vladimir Putin's Op Ed in New York Times

Clearly, Mr. Putin does not like the fact that the United States considers itself exceptional. But what does "exceptional" mean?

To me,  "exceptional" is just another word for "special". I don't know of any nation that doesn't think they are special in some way and they use it to whip up their own brand of nationalism.

In the case of  United States, however, there are genuine reasons based on rational data and facts that establish US as "special" in multiple dimensions.  The US is a multi-dimensional hyper-power the likes of which the world has not seen.

The current world order and its institutional framework were architected by post-WW II American leaders. Establishment of international institutions like the United Nations and its multiple agencies, the World Bank, IMF, GATT and WTO was spearheaded by Americans.

Not only is the US the biggest military power many times larger than number two Russia, the US dollar is the world's unchallenged currency which is used for the bulk of international trade and as reserve currency by central banks around the globe. The US is the world's largest economy and the biggest trading partner of most of the countries of the world. The US also boasts the world's top entrepreneurs, most innovative companies and bulk of the top universities with the lion's share of Nobel prizes. The US leadership in wide range of technologies and industries is unquestionable. And the US lead is growing, not shrinking with new developments.

In spite of its great technological advances, the US still retains many vestiges of its Wild West.  With its powerful gun-rights advocates in many western,  mid-western and southern states, the US is still a gun-slinging frontier society in many ways which makes it jealously guard its exceptional status in the world.

The US seeks to avoid the fate of other great empires of the past which were brought down by barbarians and desert tribesmen over the centuries.

Here's a excerpt of a piece by NY Times Nobel Laureate economist-columnist on Ibn Khaldun's lessons for established powers: "Desert tribesmen, he argued, always have more courage and social cohesion than settled, civilized folk, so every once in a while they will sweep in and conquer lands whose rulers have become corrupt and complacent. They create a new dynasty — and, over time, become corrupt and complacent themselves, ready to be overrun by a new set of barbarians...I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to apply this story to Microsoft, a company that did so well with its operating-system monopoly that it lost focus, while Apple — still wandering in the wilderness after all those years — was alert to new opportunities. And so the barbarians swept in from the desert".

US intelligence analyst and author George Friedman in his book "The Next 100 Years" describes the United States as "young and barbaric" with the barbarian instincts to fight off most threats, including those from the rag-tag bands of  tribesmen and barbarians who have toppled great empires of the past like the Roman empire, the Byzantine empire, the Persian empires, the Umayyid empire, the Abbasid empire and the Soviet empire.

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Pakistan Happiness Score Down But Still Tops Neighbors

Pakistan ranks 81 with a score of 5.292 on a list 156 countries in World Happiness Report 2013 released by UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. The average score for all of the countries surveyed is 5.1 out of 10.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people in 156 countries, surveyed by Gallup over the period 2010-12, reveal a population-weighted average score of 5.1 (out of 10). Six key variables explain three-quarters of the variation in annual national average scores over time and among countries. These six factors include: real GDP per capita, healthy life expectancy, having someone to count on, perceived freedom to make life choices, freedom from corruption, and generosity.

Pakistan's score of 5.292 (ranked 81) puts it slightly above average (5.1).  It is higher than China's 4.978 (ranked 93), Bangladesh's 4.804 (ranked 108) and India's 4.772 (ranked 111). Denmark tops the list with a score of 7.693 while Togo is at the bottom with a score of 2.936. The top 10 countries ranked for happiness include Denmark (#1), Norway (#2), Switzerland (#3), Netherlands (#4), Sweden (#5), Canada (#6), Finland (#7), Austria (#8), Iceland (#9) and Australia (#10). UAE is ranked #14, USA #17 and UK #22.

Though Pakistan's happiness score (5.292) is down by 0.214 since the end of Musharraf years in 2008, it has not been affected as much as some of the other strife-torn nations like Syria ranking near the bottom at 148 (3.892), along with other countries including Iraq (105), Iran (115) and Afghanistan (143). India (111) lost 0.382 points off its happiness score during this period.

Among people with improved quality of life are those in Latin America and the Caribbean, while decrease in levels of happiness is seen in Western Europe, the Middle East and North African countries affected by the financial crisis and political and social instability. Other major countries surveyed include Brazil (24), France (No. 25), Germany (No. 26), Japan (No. 43), Italy (No. 45) and Russia (No. 68).

The measured decrease of 0.214 in Pakistan's happiness score since 2008 appears to be the result of economic stagnation, energy shortages, growing corruption and declining sense of security. It has already led to a massive defeat of the ruling Pakistan People's Party in the elections held in May of this year. Would the decrease of 0.382 in India's happiness score since 2008 lead to the ouster of India's ruling Congress party in next year's elections? Let's wait and see.

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Quaide-Azam's Death Anniversary: Is Two Nation Theory Dead?

Some argue that the Two Nation Theory died with the 1971 partition of Pakistan that led to the separation of East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh. Others say that the TNT (Two Nation Theory) was dead the day Pakistan's founder Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah passed away on Sept 11, 1948.

As Pakistanis observe the 65th anniversary of the Quaid-e-Azam's passing, let's examine the state of the Two Nation Theory which gave birth to the Pakistan movement on March 23, 1940.

The key question that needs to be answered regarding the events of 1971 is as follows: Did the Awami League in East Pakistan fight to create their own country later named Bangladesh? Or did they shed their blood to re-unify the eastern wing of Pakistan with India?

These questions are answered by French historian Christophe Jaffrelot in his book "A History of Pakistan and its origins".

Jaffrelot  cites British-Pakistani history Prof Samuel Martin Burke rejecting the notion that the Two-Nation Theory died in 1971 with Pakistan's split into Pakistan and Bangladesh. Burke says that the two-nation theory was even more strongly asserted in that the Awami League rebels had struggled for their own country, Bangladesh, and not to join India. In so doing, they had put into practice the theory behind the original resolution to form Pakistan, which envisaged two Muslim states at the two extremities of the subcontinent.

Here's an excerpt from the Pakistan Resolution passed in Lahore in March 1940:

"Resolved that it is the considered view of this Session of the All-India Muslim League that no constitutional plan would be workable in this country or acceptable to the Muslims unless it is designated on the following basic principle, viz. that geographically contiguous units are demarcated into regions which should be so constituted with such territorial readjustments as may be necessary, that the areas in which the Muslims are numerically in a majority as in the North-Western and Eastern Zones of India should be grouped to constitute "Independent States" in which the Constituent Units shall be autonomous and sovereign"

Clearly, the Pakistan Resolution called for "Independent States" of Muslim majority areas in the "North Western and Eastern Zones of India" in which the "Constituent Units shall be autonomous and sovereign".

What happened in 1971 with the creation of Bangladesh essentially put into practice the theory behind the original resolution to form Pakistan, which envisaged two Muslim states at the two extremities of the subcontinent.

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Lal Masjid Case Against Musharraf; Karachi "Targeted" Ops; Syria

Vindictive Pakistani judges' relentless pursuit of Musharraf continues with an FIR ordered against the former president for Lal Masjid operation conducted in 2007.

Nawaz Sharif government is working with Sindh provincial administration to carry out "targeted" operations by rangers and police against criminal gangs extorting money from businesses and killing innocent citizens of Karachi.

United States is pushing for military action against Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad for alleged use of chemical weapons by his forces.

FIR Against Musharraf:

Islamabad High Court Judge Noor-ul-Haq Qureshi ordered a local police official in the nation's capital  to register a criminal case against President Musharraf for Lal Masjid operation back in 2007. The judge threatened  to hold the reluctant police officer in contempt unless he registered an FIR against the former president, forcing the poor officer to do so against his considered and lawful judgement.

Lal Masjid Vigilantes in Islamabad

The forced registration of an FIR against a former president in Lal Masjid case sends a very alarming message to the current and future government executives including presidents and prime ministers of Pakistan: "Don't mess with anyone who takes up arms to challenge state's writ in the name of Islam and the Shariah Law. If you do, you will be dragged into courts headed by right-wing Islamist judges who sympathize with the Shariah vigilantes".

Most of the Islamabad judges are from the Rawalpindi Bar Association which has the strongest right-wing Islamist connections in the country. Its members treated Punjab Gov Salman Taseer's killer Mumtaz Qadri  as a hero and showered him with rose petals.  Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui of Islamabad High Court  was a Jamaat-e-Islami candidate in 2002 elections. He has represented  former Lal Masjid Imam Maulana Abul Aziz who led Lal Masjid vigilantes in defying the writ of the state to enforce his version of the Shariah law in the hear of Pakistan's capital Islamabad.

Masked Armed Terrorists at Lal Masjid

In April this year, Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui ordered former President Pervez Musharraf's arrest by revoking bail that was properly granted earlier by Justice Mushir Alam, a Sindh High Court judge in Karachi.
Although Judge Siddiqui has recused himself from Lal Masjid case, the fact is that other judges of the Islamabad High Court are activists with similar views as right-wing ideologues.  Qureshi's biography on Islamabad High Court website describes him as "having dynasty of well esteemed Siddiqui Qureshi clan migrated to Sindh with Ghazi Muhammad Bin Qasim."  The appointments of both judges were confirmed by former President Zardari under the threat of contempt of court by Pakistan Supreme Court judges.

Karachi Operation:

Karachi is often called the urban frontier. It is also a goose that lays golden eggs; its businesses are forced to part with an estimated Rs. 830 million every day in extortion money (bhatta) to criminal gangs and terrorists of various kinds operating in the megacity of 20 million residents. The problem is that, in spite of such vast amounts of protection money, the businessmen are feeling more unsafe than ever; they are being kidnapped, tortured and killed by multiplicity of ever-greedier extortionists with growing appetite for money and violence. Could this excessive greed kill the goose that lays golden eggs?

Nawaz Sharif government is in the midst of yet another law-enforcement operation by police and rangers against criminal gangs in Karachi. It has the same problem as the myriad operations before it; Most criminals and gangsters are affiliated with Karachi's powerful politicians who spring them lose after they are arrested by rangers and handed over to the police.

Historical Chart of Karachi Killings

Karachi's past history tells us that violence goes down significantly when it is run by an elected local government. In recent history, the quietest years have been the years when an MQM-led duly elected local government has been put in charge of running Karachi. Nawaz Sharif should try this as well: Ensure local elections and allow an empowered local government with police powers to tackle its crime problems. If it fails, then Martial Law under governor's rule should be considered  to clean up Karachi.

Syrian War:

Syrian Child Refugee

There have been recent headlines  triggered by the  threat of the Obama administration to punish Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad for his alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians near Damascus. This needs to be seen in the context of a major humanitarian disaster that started to unfold when, as part of the Arab Spring elsewhere in the Middle East, ordinary Syrians rose up against the Assad dynasty's dictatorial rule over a period of 43 years. Taking a page from his father's playbook in Hama where thousands were killed by Hafez Al-Assad for defying him, Bashar responded  with brute force to suppress a peaceful protest movement against his repressive rule.  This time, the Hama formula backfired on Assad as the Opposition took up arms with foreign help to fight the regime. It's now a major humanitarian crisis in which over 100,000 Syrians have been killed so far in a population of only about 22 million, several hundred thousand have been injured and disabled and millions have been uprooted from their homes and forced to live in refugee camps in Syria, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Iraq.

Will the US strikes against Assad help resolve the Syrian humanitarian crisis? The answer is NO.

Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses with Riaz Haq, Sabahat Ashraf, and Ali Hasan Cemendtaur new cases against Pervez Musharraf; the upcoming Karachi operation to arrest terrorists and criminal elements; and what benefit would a US attack on Syria have.

This show was recorded at 1 pm PST on Thursday, September 5, 2013.

پرویز مشرف پہ داءر نءے مقدمات، کراچی میں بھتہ خوروں، ٹارگٹ کلرز اور دہشت گردوں کے خلاف آپریشن کی تیاری، شام پہ امریکہ کے حملے کی تیاری، فراز درویش، ریاض حق، صباحت اشرف، آءی فقیر، علی حسن سمندطور، ڈبلیو بی ٹی ٹی وی، ویو پواءنٹ فرام اوورسیز، امریکہ میں پاکستانی، سلیکن ویلی، سان فرانسسکو بے ایریا

http://vimeo.com/74178538


New cases against Musharraf; Karachi operation; US ready to attack Syria from WBT TV on Vimeo.

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Inside Story: Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi in 1965 War?

 "...a major battle the west of the Beas would end in the destruction of the Indian Army and thereafter allow the enemy (Pakistani) forces to push to the gates of Delhi without much resistance." 1965 WAR-The Inside Story by R.D. Pradhan                                    

As Pakistanis honor the memory of  their 1965 war heroes on Defense of Pakistan Day today, let us review some snippets of how the war looked from the other side. R.D. Pradhan and Harbakhsh Singh were both insiders who participated in the 1965 India-Pakistan war. While Pradhan was a civilian working for Indian Defense Minister Y.B. Chavan, General Harbakhash Singh was commanding Indian troops on the front-lines. Both have written books drawing upon their first-hand knowledge of how the war started, unfolded and ended in September, 1965.

In Chapter 8 titled "Of Cowardice and Panic" of his book "1965 War-The Inside Story", R.D. Pradhan describes the cowardice of Maj. Gen. Niranjan Prasad, the Indian general commanding officer in Lahore sector.  When Pakistan Defense Forces counter-attacked the intruding Indian military and the general was fired upon on Sept 6, 1965, he "ran away".  Here's an excerpt:


"On learning that, Lt. Gen. Harbakash Singh and the corps commander drove in a Jonga (Nissan P60 Jeep) to the battlefront. Army commander found that the enemy (PAF) air attack had created a havoc on G.T. Road. (Indian) Vehicles were burning and several vehicles of 15 Division abandoned on the road, the drivers having run away, leaving some of the engines still running. Maj. Gen. Niranjan Prasad was hiding in a recently irrigated sugar cane field. As described by Harabakash Singh: "He (Prasad) came out to receive us, with his boots covered with wet mud. He had no head cover, nor was he wearing any badges of his rank. He had stubble on his face, not having shaved." Seeing him in such a stage, Harbakhash Singh asked him: "Whether he was the General Officer commanding a division or a coolie? Why had he removed badges of rank and not shaved? Niranjan Prasad had no answer." 

India's GOC Maj Gen Niranjan Prasad's Jeep Captured by Pakistan Army in 1965 War

Chapter 12 of Pradhan's book is titled "Retreat to Beas" in which there is detailed discussion of Indian COAS's proposal for the Indian Army to retreat behind Beas in the face of Pakistan's fierce counter-attacks after India's attempted incursion in Lahore. Pradhan argues in this chapter that during the 1965 war with Pakistan, Indian COAS General Chaudhuri feared that "a major battle the west of the Beas would end in the destruction of the Indian Army and thereafter allow the enemy (Pakistani) forces to push to the gates of Delhi without much resistance".

Pradhan's book contains many different entries by Indian Defense Minister Y.B. Chavan. A Sept 9, 1965 entry reads:  

Had a very hard day on all fronts. Very fierce counter-attacks mounted and we are required to withdraw in Kasur area. COAS was somewhat uncertain of himself. I suggested to him that he should go in forward areas so that he will be in touch of realities. He said he would go next day.


In Line of Duty: A Soldier Remembers, according to Shekhar Gupta, the editor of Indian Express, Lt Gen Harbakhsh Singh reveals that not only "did Gen Chowdhury play a very small role in the entire campaign, he was so nervous as to be on the verge of losing half of Punjab to Pakistan, including the city of Amritsar. Harbakhsh describes, in clinical detail, how our own offensive in the Lahore sector had come unhinged. The general commanding the division on Ichchogil canal fled in panic, leaving his jeep, its wireless running and the briefcase containing sensitive documents that were then routinely read on Radio Pakistan during the war. Singh wanted to court martial him, Chowdhury let him get away with resignation".

According to Shekhar Gupta, Harbkhash Singh recounts that a bigger disaster struck a bit to the south where the other division cracked up in assault, just as it encountered a bit of resistance. Several infantry battalions, short on battle inoculation, deserted and Singh gives a hair-raising account – and confirmation of a long-debated rumor – that Chowdhury panicked so badly he ordered him to withdraw to a new defensive line behind the Beas, thereby conceding half of Punjab to Pakistan. Singh describes the conversation with Chowdhury at Ambala where he refused to carry out the order, asking his chief to either put it down in writing or visit the front and take charge of the battle.

 Beyond the Indian insiders quoted above,  here is how several non-Pakistani journalists have covered the war:

The London Daily Mirror reported in 1965:

"There is a smell of death in the burning Pakistan sun. For it was here that India's attacking forces came to a dead stop.

"During the night they threw in every reinforcement they could find. But wave after wave of attacks were repulsed by the Pakistanis"

"India", said the London Daily Times, "is being soundly beaten by a nation which is outnumbered by four and a half to one in population and three to one in size of armed forces."

In Times reporter Louis Karrar wrote:

"Who can defeat a nation which knows how to play hide and seek with death".

Pakistani President Ayub Khan (R) and Indian Prime Minister Shastri

USA - Aviation week - December 1968 issue:

"For the PAF, the 1965 war was as climatic as the Israeli victory over the Arabs in 1967. A further similarity was that Indian air power had an approximately 5:1 numerical superiority at the start of the conflict. Unlike the Middle East conflict, the Pakistani air victory was achieved to a large degree by air-to-air combat rather than on ground. But it was as absolute as that attained by Israel.

India was the first to accept UN sponsored ceasefire (page 100 of RD Pradhan's book)  on Sept 21 followed by Pakistan on Sept 22, bringing the 1965 war to an end on Sept 22, 1965. As the ceasefire took effect, Indian Defense Y.B. Chavan wrote in his diary as follows:

"The ball is now in the political court again--where it should be--and not in the military one. I hope we have the vision and courage to (our) political leadership."
  
Alas, the core issue of Kashmir still remains unresolved 48 years since Mr. Chavan wrote his words of wisdom.


Here's a Coke Studio video of a popular Pakistani song from 1965 war:


Ae Wattan Kay Sajeelay Jawanon, Amanat Ali,Coke Studio Pakistan, Season 3 from Coke Studio on Vimeo.

Related Link:

 Haq's Musings

Demolishing Indian War Myths 

Kashmiris Remain Defiant

India-Pakistan Military Balance

Assessing Pakistan Army Capabilities

Can India "Do a Lebanon" in Pakistan?

Pakistan's Defense Industry Going High-Tech

Syrian Situation, Taliban Talks, Indian Rupee and Zardari's Exit

Can Nawaz Sharif exploit TTP leaders' split on talks offer? Will Obama order US military strike against Syria after chemical weapons attack? Why is Indian rupee falling sharply? How did Zardari do as Pakistan's president?

Syria Chemical Weapons Attack:

I have a strong suspicion that Bashar Al-Asad's forces are responsible for chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. Chemical weapons are not easy to use....especially when it comes to widely dispersing chemical agents for mass casualties like the recent incident in Syria. Syria has admitted to having a stockpile of such weapons which require a level of sophistication usually not present in terrorist organizations like al Qaeda. The only known incident of sarin gas use involving a non-government group  is the 1995 Tokyo subway attack by Aum Shinrikyo which claimed only 13 lives in multiple releases in 5 different trains....far far lower than the over 1400 dead in Syria recently.

Like Sadam Husain in Iraq, Asad family has a long history of brutalizing the people in Syria. Bashar's father Hafez flattened large parts of Syrian town of Hama and killed its entire population back in 1982. I see what's happening now as a continuation of Hafez's brutal legacy in Syria.

Obama wants to act against Assad for crossing a US red line by allegedly using chemical weapons. But he has a dilemma: Syrian opposition has significant presence of Al Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria which would pose a much more serious threat to US and Israel. Will Obama risk regime change until favorable opposition emerges to replace Asad?  Or will Obama just do a token cruise missile strike to send a message to Assad to desist from using chemical weapons again?

Indian Rupee Decline:

India's imports cost about $500 billion a year and its exports amount to only $300 billion worth of stuff, leaving a trade gap of about $200 billion.  Much of this deficit had until recently been financed by foreign capital flows into India.

Many investors had been borrowing money in US dollars at extremely low rates to invest their borrowings for higher returns in emerging markets like India.  With  US economic recovery beginning to take hold, the US Fed has signaled that it may reduce or end its bond purchases of $85 billion a month. As a result of this change, foreign investors are retrenching from the emerging markets to take advantage of better returns in US and frontier markets. This is depleting India's foreign exchange reserves and hurting the Indian rupee.

In contrast to big declines in emerging markets like India and Indonesia, some frontier markets such as the UAE, Bulgaria and Pakistan have returned over 50 percent this year in dollar terms, according to Reuters. Unlike in the big emerging economies, listed companies in Kenya or Pakistan tend to be true plays on the emerging market consumer. Earnings growth estimates for this year have risen sharply almost everywhere to 10-15 percent (versus the 9.8 percent average in emerging markets).

Taliban Split on Talks Offer:

Talks offer by Prime Minister Sharif has caused a significant rift in the  Pakistani Taliban leadership.  While Punjabi Taliban's leader Asmatullah Muawiya has welcomed the offer, leaders of the Pashtun Taliban have rejected it. The split has become more serious with the Pashtun Taliban's decision to remove Muawiya from his position as the leader of the Punjabi Taliban.

"The Taliban decision making body met under Commander Hakimullah Mehsud and decided that Asmatullah Muawiya has no relation with the TTP," Shahidullah Shahid, spokesman for the Hakimullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), told news agency AFP. In response, Muawiya  has told The Associated Press that the Taliban shura had no authority to remove him because the Punjabi Taliban is a separate group. He said his group has its own decision-making body to decide leadership and other matters.

This split among the Taliban leadership should be seen by the Nawaz Sharif government as an opportunity to further divide and eventually defeat the various terrorist groups operating under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Bye Bye President Zardari:

President Zardari has pursued politics of reconciliation. He has strengthened democracy and his government's legislative accomplishments are undeniable. Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan have seen their situation deteriorate significantly terms of basics like access to jobs, electricity, water and sense of security in the last 5 years. Fruits of democracy have been harvested by the politicians, the judges and the media but remain out of reach of the ordinary people. As a result, the people have dealt a heavy defeat to President Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, and sent him packing.

VPOS Video: 

Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses with Riaz Haq, Sabahat Ashraf, Ali H Cemendtaur situation in Syria, Nawaz Sharif Government’s possible talks with the Taliban, Zardari’s accomplishments as President of Pakistan, and Indian Rupee's decline in the following video:

http://vimeo.com/73590959


Pakistani Taliban Split; US Strike on Syria; Indian Rupee Crisis; Zardari's Exit from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Divide and Conquer Pakistani Taliban

Nawaz Sharif's Silence on Taliban Terror in Inaugural Speech

Taliban vs. Pakistan

Yet Another Peace Deal and Shia Blockade

Taliban Insurgency in Swat

Musharraf's Treason Trial

General Kayani's Speech on Terror War Ownership

Impact of Youth Vote and Taliban Violence on Elections 2013

Imran Khan's Social Media Campaign

Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions 

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo 

Viewpoint From Overseas-Youtube 

Nawaz Sharif's Opportunity: Divide and Conquer Pakistani Taliban

Talks offer by Prime Minister Sharif has caused a significant rift in the  Pakistani Taliban leadership.  While Punjabi Taliban's leader Asmatullah Muawiya has welcomed the offer, leaders of the Pashtun Taliban have rejected it. The split has become more serious with the Pashtun Taliban's decision to remove Muawiya from his position as the leader of the Punjabi Taliban.

"The Taliban decision making body met under Commander Hakimullah Mehsud and decided that Asmatullah Muawiya has no relation with the TTP," Shahidullah Shahid, spokesman for the Hakimullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), told news agency AFP. In response, Muawiya  has told The Associated Press that the Taliban shura had no authority to remove him because the Punjabi Taliban is a separate group. He said his group has its own decision-making body to decide leadership and other matters.

This split among the Taliban leadership should be seen by the Nawaz Sharif government as an opportunity to further divide and eventually defeat the various terrorist groups operating under the banner of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

As a first step of this divide-and-conquer strategy, Pakistani government should proceed with identifying numerous TTP factions who are ready to negotiate and begin talking with each of them separately.  Instead of making concessions, the government should prolong these separate negotiations to plant seeds of distrust and discord among the Taliban factions and let them fight and weaken each other.

As a second step, the government should selectively use the Pakistani military to attack various TTP factions one at a time to  reduce the TTP movement from a potent force to a mere nuisance which  can be managed and ultimately made irrelevant.

During this process, the government should disregard any Taliban sympathizers among politicians, military and bureaucracy who will try to influence the process in favor of the Taliban in the name of Islam to pursue their own selfish agendas.

Such a strategy will require deep thinking, persistence, good negotiating skills and selective use of decisive military force to end the scourge of terrorism from Pakistan's national landscape. It will  also require broad public support.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Nawaz Sharif's Silence on Taliban Terror in Inaugural Speech

Taliban vs. Pakistan

Yet Another Peace Deal and Shia Blockade

Taliban Insurgency in Swat

Musharraf's Treason Trial

General Kayani's Speech on Terror War Ownership

Impact of Youth Vote and Taliban Violence on Elections 2013

Imran Khan's Social Media Campaign

Pakistan Elections 2013 Predictions 

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo 

Viewpoint From Overseas-Youtube 

PTI and JUI-F Losses in By-polls; Musharraf Indictment; Inaction Against Terrorists

Last week in Pakistan was eventful.  By-elections were held. Former President Pervez Musharraf was indicted. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation and laid out his plans.

Pakistan By-elections:

 By-elections were held for 41 national and provincial assembly seats. PTI and JUI-F lost key seats, while PML (N), PPP, MQM and ANP did much better than PTI, JUI (F) and JI. Are KPK voter sending a warning to PTI to shape up?

Musharraf's Indictment:

Former President Musharraf was indicted for Benazir Bhutto's murder. The indictment rests entirely on Mark Siegel's statement about Benazir Bhutto's fears.

In a piece published this week in Foreign Affairs journal, UN Assistant Secretary General Heraldo Munoz looked at all the facts surrounding BB murder and allegations against Pervez Musharraf, and concluded as follows: "But all that does not constitute proof of culpability. Even Bhutto, despite her e-mail pointing a finger at Musharraf, did not believe that Musharraf wanted her dead--only that some people around him did."

Meanwhile, most media commentators and pundits are playing up the fact that a former general has been brought before the court to answer. There is no discussion of the substance and merits of the case.

Gallup Poll on Musharraf:

At about the same as the former president was being indicted, a Gallup poll showed that Pervez Musharraf remains a popular figure with 59% of Pakistanis having a positive view of the former president. 31% favorable and 28% satisfactory.These high positive ratings of Musharraf are specially surprising given the hostility of the media and relentless attacks by the judiciary and the politicians against the former ruler.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Speech:

Sharif addressed the nation to talk about his plans to tackle economic crisis and talk with terrorists without insisting on a ceasefire. He also threatened to use force if talks don't produce results.

Sharif also made the fantastic claim that Pakistan was on its way to "become an Asian Tiger" when he was removed in 1999, ignoring well-documented data showing that Pakistan was bankrupt and heavily indebted with a stagnant economy at the end of Sharif's last stint as prime minister.

Sharif also talked about Pakistan's current debt situation as being worse than ever. This, too, is false. As percentage of GDP, the debt situation in 1999 was far worse. Pakistan's debt was 80% its GDP in 1999, worse than the current 60% of GDP, and far worse than the debt-gdp ratio of 55% when Musharraf left office in 2008.

As to Sharif's reference to Pakistan becoming as Asian Tiger under his leadership, it's important to remember  the historic fact that Asian Tigers did not become Asian Tigers under "democracy". Democracy came only after Asian Tigers became Asian Tigers.

 Questions:

 Are voters losing patience with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Maulana Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI)?

Do MQM's big wins in Karachi under military supervision debunk PTI's earlier rigging claims in May elections?

 Is Musharraf's indictment in Benazir Bhuto murder case justified? Or is it a part of the continuing judicial vendetta against the former president?

 Will government inaction against the Taliban and their sectarian allies embolden them? Will democracy survive the terrorists' growing onslaught?

 Will the military stand by and watch Taliban take Peshawar and then move toward Islamabad?

VPOS host Faraz Darvesh discusses these and other questions with Sabahat Ashraf, Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq.


PTI, JUI Losses and ANP, PPP Gains in By-polls; Inaction Against Terrorists from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

UN Malala Day

Treason Trial of Musharraf

Does Sharif Have an Anti-Terror Policy?

Blowback of US Drones in Pakistan

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo 

Viewpoint From Overseas-Youtube