Pakistan has a new prime minister elected by the new parliament chosen by the people in largely free, fair and peaceful general elections held by President Musharraf's government last February. As expected, the new prime minister Makhdoom Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani comes from an influential feudal family in Southern Punjab. In the absence of a large, powerful middle class, this is the best that one could hope for as an outcome of the electoral process. But does this mean we are closer to a functioning democracy now?
Emergence and sustenance of democracy and democratic institutions requires a large and powerful middle class. With the exception of India, all other functioning democracies have gone through the transition from feudal to industrial societies where a large middle class exercises its free will to support and maintain civil societies and rule of law. They believe in due process rather than arbitrary rule, a hallmark of military and feudal rulers.
In India's case, Prime Minister Nehru and the Indian National Congress leadership, mostly from the middle classes, seized control and successfully emasculated the Indian feudal class by extensive and real land reform immediately after independence. This never happened in Pakistan. Even though most of India is mired in deep poverty, an average Indian is better educated than an an average Pakistani and the enrollment rate of children in school is much higher, giving hope for a better future. India is beginning to emerge as an industrial economy and acquiring global industrial units like Corus steel and Jaguar.
Pakistan can possibly evolve from feudal to industrial society with a large middle class but it is likely to be a very long and slow evolution, given the history of our recalcitrant feudal leadership. Under Musharraf, the middle class has grown rapidly. I think this is likely to slow down to suit the whims of the feudal class for continuation of the patron-client society they prefer.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Indian Companies Going Global
India's Tata Motors Ltd has agreed to acquire Jaguar and Land Rover, the well known international luxury brand names. The price tag of $2.3 billion represents a real bargain at a fraction of what Ford paid to buy these brands a few years ago. The Wall Street Journal reports that the deal, expected to be made final with regulators sometime during the second quarter, capped off months of discussions between the parties and much speculation among investors about the fate of the brands in the sale. The process began last June when the U.S. auto maker hired Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley to run an auction of the two units, part of its Premier Automotive Group.
While this high-profile deal by an Indian company is making headlines around the world, the data shows that Indian companies have been on a global shopping spree for a several years. The number of Indian companies that are investing abroad has been steadily growing ever since the Tata Group successfully acquired UK's Tetley Tea for $430 million four years ago. According to KPMG, Indian companies shelled out $1.7 billion in the first eight months of 2005 for acquiring 62 overseas companies. While the IT sector, banking and financial services and pharmaceutical companies have been the most active in M&A deals, increasingly other sectors too are getting in on the act. If the small and mid-sized Indian companies too go in for acquisition deals - in the $1 million range - this could give a tremendous boost to India's manufacturing sector, D.V. Venkatagiri wrote in late 2005.
The acquisition binge further intensified with Tata Steel's $13.6 billion takeover in 2007 of Corus, the British steel company. The Aditya Birla group made a $6 billion bid to buy Novelis, a Canadian aluminum company, and Suzlon, a wind-power company, offered $1.6 billion for REpower, a German turbine maker. Ranbaxy, one of India's top pharmaceutical companies, which has spent $500 million acquiring 14 companies abroad since 2004, joined the bidding for the generics business of Merck, a German pharmaceutical company, at about $5 billion. Then Reliance Industries, one of India's two largest groups, was reportedly in talks with three U.S. companies - Dow Chemical, Chevron and GE and two European retailers, Carrefour and Sainsbury, about possible deals. There has been so much foreign acquisition talk by Indian companies it seemed as if herd instinct had replaced financial caution, reports Forbes magazine.
Both Tata and Birla are cushioned by substantial internal cash reserves that will enable them to cover debt taken on with the acquisitions, says Nimesh Kampani, chairman and managing director of JM Financial, a leading Indian investment bank. Kampani says companies that aren't part of large diversified groups, such as Ranbaxy or Suzlon, "have to be much more careful in foreign acquisitions."
Still, the pressure on these and other Indian companies to go global will continue. In 2007, 34 foreign acquisitions totaling $10.4 billion were reported by Indian companies as completed or pending, according to Dealogic, a British research firm. That is almost half of the $23.1 billion total for all of last year.
Indian companies have two targets abroad: businesses that enable them to grow beyond India and become globally competitive, and those that add value in terms of markets, brands, technology or raw materials. In the first category, globalization is forcing companies to choose what to do because they could be vulnerable to foreign takeover bids in a market downturn.
"Scale is a key competitive weapon," says Rajeev Gupta, Indian managing director of Carlyle, a U.S. private-equity firm. "You have to have scale working for you, and that will lead some companies to sell and some to buy. All the top family companies are clear that they have to make choices."
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Forbes, ICFDC (India)
While this high-profile deal by an Indian company is making headlines around the world, the data shows that Indian companies have been on a global shopping spree for a several years. The number of Indian companies that are investing abroad has been steadily growing ever since the Tata Group successfully acquired UK's Tetley Tea for $430 million four years ago. According to KPMG, Indian companies shelled out $1.7 billion in the first eight months of 2005 for acquiring 62 overseas companies. While the IT sector, banking and financial services and pharmaceutical companies have been the most active in M&A deals, increasingly other sectors too are getting in on the act. If the small and mid-sized Indian companies too go in for acquisition deals - in the $1 million range - this could give a tremendous boost to India's manufacturing sector, D.V. Venkatagiri wrote in late 2005.
The acquisition binge further intensified with Tata Steel's $13.6 billion takeover in 2007 of Corus, the British steel company. The Aditya Birla group made a $6 billion bid to buy Novelis, a Canadian aluminum company, and Suzlon, a wind-power company, offered $1.6 billion for REpower, a German turbine maker. Ranbaxy, one of India's top pharmaceutical companies, which has spent $500 million acquiring 14 companies abroad since 2004, joined the bidding for the generics business of Merck, a German pharmaceutical company, at about $5 billion. Then Reliance Industries, one of India's two largest groups, was reportedly in talks with three U.S. companies - Dow Chemical, Chevron and GE and two European retailers, Carrefour and Sainsbury, about possible deals. There has been so much foreign acquisition talk by Indian companies it seemed as if herd instinct had replaced financial caution, reports Forbes magazine.
Both Tata and Birla are cushioned by substantial internal cash reserves that will enable them to cover debt taken on with the acquisitions, says Nimesh Kampani, chairman and managing director of JM Financial, a leading Indian investment bank. Kampani says companies that aren't part of large diversified groups, such as Ranbaxy or Suzlon, "have to be much more careful in foreign acquisitions."
Still, the pressure on these and other Indian companies to go global will continue. In 2007, 34 foreign acquisitions totaling $10.4 billion were reported by Indian companies as completed or pending, according to Dealogic, a British research firm. That is almost half of the $23.1 billion total for all of last year.
Indian companies have two targets abroad: businesses that enable them to grow beyond India and become globally competitive, and those that add value in terms of markets, brands, technology or raw materials. In the first category, globalization is forcing companies to choose what to do because they could be vulnerable to foreign takeover bids in a market downturn.
"Scale is a key competitive weapon," says Rajeev Gupta, Indian managing director of Carlyle, a U.S. private-equity firm. "You have to have scale working for you, and that will lead some companies to sell and some to buy. All the top family companies are clear that they have to make choices."
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Forbes, ICFDC (India)
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Khadim or Makhdoom?
Makhdoom Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani has been elected and sworn in as the new prime minister of Pakistan. He won by a massive margin of 264 to 42.
The new prime minister belongs to an influential and spiritual shia family of Multan, born on June 9, 1952 in Karachi, Pakistan. His father was a descendant of Syed Musa Pak, a leading Sufi spiritual figure of Multan of the Qadiri Sufi Order of Shi'a Islam. Syed Musa Pak hailed from the Iranian province of Gilan. One of Gilani's maternal aunts is the wife of Pir Pagara. Makhdoom Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani is married and has four sons and one daughter, Fiza Gilani and one grandson. The eldest son of the Makhdoom, Makhdoom Syed Abdul Qadir Gilani, is marrying the grand-daughter of Pir Pagara today in Karachi.
The Makhdoom recieved early education at La Salle High School at Multan. He graduated with BA in 1970 and MA in Journalism from University of the Punjab, Lahore in 1976.
The Makhdoom began his political journey from the platform of Pakistan Muslim League during General Zia-ul-Haq's martial law in 1978. He joined the Muslim League's Central Working Committee. He was also a cabinet member in the three-year government of Prime Minister Muhammad Khan Junejo. He served as Minister of Housing and Works from April 1985 to January 1986 and Railways Minister from January 1986 to December 1986.
After a short stint with the Muslim League, the Makhdoom joined the Pakistan Peoples Party in 1988 and has since remained PPP's loyal and steadfast supporter. In the Benazir Bhutto government of 1988-1990, Gilani was again a cabinet minister: He was Minister of Tourism from March 1989 to January 1990 and again served as Minister of Housing and Works from January 1990 to August 1990.
In the Benazir Bhutto government of 1993-1996, the Makhdoom was elected the Speaker of National Assembly of Pakistan, which he stayed till February 1997.
He has been elected various times as Member of National Assembly from Multan. In the 2008 general election, he beat PML-Q leader Sikandar Hayat Bosan.
While the Makhdoom deserves to be congratulated for winning the nod from the PPP-PML(N) leadership to become the new prime minister, it is hard to see this development as a new beginning and a clean break from the past. He is part of the feudal club and a creature of the military, not unlike the "democtartic" leaders of the past. He owes his position to the family wealth and connections buttressed by the claim to being a descendant of Prophet Muhammad(PBUH).
Just prior to the recent elections in Pakistan, the BBC talked about the feudal shadow over Pakistan as follows: "In many cases they(feudals)are also able to claim the loyalty of thousands, sometimes hundreds of thousands, of "murids" (devotees) who believe they are directly descended from local saints. On top of this, they usually control the "station and katchery" (the police and the courts) which ensures the compliance, willing or not, of the local populace." Please read my February post on this subject.
As long as the feudal system and the feudal lords remain powerful in Pakistan, it will continue to have Makhdooms (lords) rather than Khadims (servants) in leadership positions.
Sources: Wikipedia, BBC News, Haq's Musings blog
Saturday, March 22, 2008
All Marriages Are Made in Hell
The PPP, the PML(N), President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistanis have been witnesses to several political marriages of convenience in the last 20 years. Examples include Bhutto-Zardari marriage, Bhutto-Musharraf marriage and Zardari-Sharif marriage.
Mr. Asif Zardari has emerged as the most powerful person in Pakistani politics in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the subsequent PPP victory in the recent elections. Mr. Zardari was heavily involved in the the government and politics of Pakistan during the PPP's last two terms as the ruling party. Some of the questions that often beg for answers revolve around Benazir's opinion of her marriage to Asif and how her perception of Asif evolved over time. While it is hard to get accurate answers to such questions, it is possible to guess based on the words and actions of Benazir during her 20 year marriage to Asif Zardari.
When Benazir was engaged to marry Asif back in 1987, she told the New York Times that she agreed to the marriage, negotiated by her mother and other relatives over the last year, as a matter of "religious obligation and family duty." She went on to say "I must confess that if it hadn't been for my own peculiar position, where I have to consider the political ramifications of every step I take, then perhaps this would not have been an arranged marriage, but, in the circumstances, it seemed the only course," she said.
During her two terms in office, Benazir's husband was widely believed to be involved in corrupt dealings on major contracts with foreign firms doing business in Pakistan.
In fact, he earned the nickname "Mr. Ten Percent" for the 10% commission he is alleged to have demanded and got on every significant deal. In 1998 when Mr. Nawaz Sharif was the prime minister, The New York Times reported as follows: "A decade after she led this impoverished nation from military rule to democracy, Benazir Bhutto is at the heart of a widening corruption inquiry that Pakistani investigators say has traced more than $100 million to foreign bank accounts and properties controlled by Ms. Bhutto's family."
The 1998 NY Times report further said "But they trace the pervasive role of her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who turned his marriage to Ms. Bhutto into a source of virtually unchallengeable power."
"In 1995, a leading French military contractor, Dassault Aviation, agreed to pay Mr. Zardari and a Pakistani partner $200 million for a $4 billion jet fighter deal that fell apart only when Ms. Bhutto's Government was dismissed. In another deal, a leading Swiss company hired to curb customs fraud in Pakistan paid millions of dollars between 1994 and 1996 to offshore companies controlled by Mr. Zardari and Ms. Bhutto's widowed mother, Nusrat", according to the NY Times report.
Benazir was well aware of the damage Mr. Zardari had done to the PPP and her personal reputation and worked hard to keep her husband away from the political spotlight. In fact, she asked him to go to New York and stay there in an apartment away from the media to be neither seen nor heard.
Rita Payne of the BBC wrote as follows in a recent column published on BBC.com: Her ability to switch alliances for political advantage was in evidence after the 1999 coup, when Nawaz Sharif was sacked by Pervez Musharraf. Initially she welcomed the move but was back in the studio three months later to condemn President Musharraf’s performance. Is the honeymoon over, I asked her as we waited for the interview to begin. She responded with a rueful smile, “all marriages are made in Hell." Sadly, there wasn’t another opportunity to follow this up."
The political marriage of convenience between Benazir and Musharraf arranged by the United States leading up to the Bhutto/Zardari amnesty and Bhutto's return happened much later.
Everyone now knows how that marriage turned out. While Musharraf kept his end of the bargain, Benazir quickly turned on Musharraf for her political advantage. Unfortunately, she did not survive to see the success of her party and Zardari took effective control of the PPP. However, it seems that the key phrase from her lips "All marriages are made in Hell" may be an allusion to more than her problems with Musharraf at the time Ms. Bhutto made the statement.
While the history of such marriages does not give us much confidence in their potential success, only time will tell if the latest marriage of convenience between PPP and PML(N) will succeed.
Mr. Asif Zardari has emerged as the most powerful person in Pakistani politics in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the subsequent PPP victory in the recent elections. Mr. Zardari was heavily involved in the the government and politics of Pakistan during the PPP's last two terms as the ruling party. Some of the questions that often beg for answers revolve around Benazir's opinion of her marriage to Asif and how her perception of Asif evolved over time. While it is hard to get accurate answers to such questions, it is possible to guess based on the words and actions of Benazir during her 20 year marriage to Asif Zardari.
When Benazir was engaged to marry Asif back in 1987, she told the New York Times that she agreed to the marriage, negotiated by her mother and other relatives over the last year, as a matter of "religious obligation and family duty." She went on to say "I must confess that if it hadn't been for my own peculiar position, where I have to consider the political ramifications of every step I take, then perhaps this would not have been an arranged marriage, but, in the circumstances, it seemed the only course," she said.
During her two terms in office, Benazir's husband was widely believed to be involved in corrupt dealings on major contracts with foreign firms doing business in Pakistan.
In fact, he earned the nickname "Mr. Ten Percent" for the 10% commission he is alleged to have demanded and got on every significant deal. In 1998 when Mr. Nawaz Sharif was the prime minister, The New York Times reported as follows: "A decade after she led this impoverished nation from military rule to democracy, Benazir Bhutto is at the heart of a widening corruption inquiry that Pakistani investigators say has traced more than $100 million to foreign bank accounts and properties controlled by Ms. Bhutto's family."
The 1998 NY Times report further said "But they trace the pervasive role of her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who turned his marriage to Ms. Bhutto into a source of virtually unchallengeable power."
"In 1995, a leading French military contractor, Dassault Aviation, agreed to pay Mr. Zardari and a Pakistani partner $200 million for a $4 billion jet fighter deal that fell apart only when Ms. Bhutto's Government was dismissed. In another deal, a leading Swiss company hired to curb customs fraud in Pakistan paid millions of dollars between 1994 and 1996 to offshore companies controlled by Mr. Zardari and Ms. Bhutto's widowed mother, Nusrat", according to the NY Times report.
Benazir was well aware of the damage Mr. Zardari had done to the PPP and her personal reputation and worked hard to keep her husband away from the political spotlight. In fact, she asked him to go to New York and stay there in an apartment away from the media to be neither seen nor heard.
Rita Payne of the BBC wrote as follows in a recent column published on BBC.com: Her ability to switch alliances for political advantage was in evidence after the 1999 coup, when Nawaz Sharif was sacked by Pervez Musharraf. Initially she welcomed the move but was back in the studio three months later to condemn President Musharraf’s performance. Is the honeymoon over, I asked her as we waited for the interview to begin. She responded with a rueful smile, “all marriages are made in Hell." Sadly, there wasn’t another opportunity to follow this up."
The political marriage of convenience between Benazir and Musharraf arranged by the United States leading up to the Bhutto/Zardari amnesty and Bhutto's return happened much later.
Everyone now knows how that marriage turned out. While Musharraf kept his end of the bargain, Benazir quickly turned on Musharraf for her political advantage. Unfortunately, she did not survive to see the success of her party and Zardari took effective control of the PPP. However, it seems that the key phrase from her lips "All marriages are made in Hell" may be an allusion to more than her problems with Musharraf at the time Ms. Bhutto made the statement.
While the history of such marriages does not give us much confidence in their potential success, only time will tell if the latest marriage of convenience between PPP and PML(N) will succeed.
Friday, March 21, 2008
The Prophet I Know.
As the Muslim world celebrates the birthday of Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) today, it's important to remember his teachings and the life he lived to learn how to deal with the serious crises Muslims face today. Here is how I remember the Prophet I know from my reading about his life:
Secular Education:
The Prophet I know instructed Muslims to "go as far as China to seek knowledge". It was clear at the time that China was not a Muslim nation. It is therefore safe to conclude that the Prophet encouraged all necessary efforts to seek all knowledge including secular education.
Faith and Reason:
The Prophet I know brought the Holy Quran to humanity, the Book that repeatedly and emphatically challenges readers to "Think" and "Ponder" for themselves. This is the best proof that Islam wants Muslims to embrace and reconcile faith and reason. It was this teaching that brought greatness to Muslims in seventh through thirteenth centuries following the death of Prophet Muhammad.
Compassion:
The Prophet I know showed compassion and understanding when a Bedouin person entered the Prophet's mosque in Medina and urinated, an act that infuriated the Prophet's companions. He restrained his companions and asked them to show understanding for the ignorance of the Bedouin.
Brevity:
The Prophet I know spoke softly and briefly. His last khutbah was a mere 430 words lasting a few minutes. He did not make long, fiery speeches.
Response to provocation:
The Prophet I know responded to abuse by prayer. When the people of Taif threw rocks at him, he responded by praying to Allah to give guidance to those who abused him.
Respect for Life:
The Prophet I know brought the Holy Quran, the Book that equates " unjust killing of one person" with "the killing the entire humanity". It commands respect for life.
It is more important than ever for Muslims to make a serious effort to understand what Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) stood for and how he lived his life. The issues of education, faith, reason and compassion need to be understood in the light of the Quran, the Sunnah and the Hadith. It is this understanding that will help guide the Ummah out of the deep crisis it finds itself in.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Concerted Campaign Against China
With China's resurgence on the world stage and its hour of well-deserved glory approaching at Beijing Olympics this summer, those opposed to China are out in force to spoil it for the Chinese people.
The efforts to recruit athletes to stage protests in front of the news media during the Olympics and the recent troubles in Tibet and Western China do not appear to be spontaneous. The West-based Free Tibet and Team Darfur movements and their media-savvy supporters, including many celebrities, athletes and actors, are attempting to foment trouble in China before, during and after the Olympics.
The pressure is building up on national Olympic committees as well. The US Olympic Committee has come under criticism for its stance on protests. In response, the Committee spokesman Darryl Seibel said no U.S. athlete would be reprimanded or censured for expressing a critical opinion about China's human rights record, so long as it is done in an appropriate setting. The code of conduct that 2008 U.S. Olympians will sign asks them only to respect the terms of the Olympic Charter.
A growing number of athletes from all over the world have been signed up by Team Darfur, an organization committed to raising awareness about the crisis in Sudan.
It wants to put pressure on the Sudanese authorities, and also those countries, like China, that do business with Sudan. Team Darfur plans to highlight the issue at the Beijing Olympics. Canada's former Olympic swimmer Nicky Dryden, a Team Darfur campaigner, wants athletes to make a stand during the Beijing Games.
Steven Spielberg, a high-profile Hollywood producer and director, has decided to relinquish his role in producing the Opening and Closing ceremonies for the Beijing Games. Now there are fears that his withdrawal may be followed by that of other western stars associated with the Games. There was speculation yesterday that the music producer Quincy Jones, who is writing the theme tune, might pull out. A spokesman described the reports as “speculation” but added that Jones was “keeping an eye on the situation”.
What really worry the Chinese authorities are the growing calls for a boycott of the Games. A poll of nearly 2,500 people for The Sunday Times today shows strong support for Spielberg’s stand, with 49% saying they would back a boycott by British athletes, against 33% who said such a boycott would be wrong. The poll found that 75% thought Spielberg was right to pull out and just 12% thought he was wrong.
In Lhasa, where howling Tibetan mobs turned on ethnic Han Chinese and Hui Muslims last Friday in the worst violence in nearly 20 years. Many businesses owned by the Han Chinese and Hui Muslims were attacked and burned. It should be noted here that most Hui are similar in culture to Han Chinese with the exception that they practice Islam, and have some distinctive cultural characteristics as a result. For example, as Muslims, they follow Islamic dietary laws and reject the consumption of pork, the most common meat consumed in Chinese culture, and have also given rise to their variation of Chinese cuisine, Chinese Islamic cuisine. Their mode of dress also differs only in that adult males wear white caps and females wear headscarves or (occasionally) veils, as is the case in most Islamic cultures.
News agencies report that a homemade bomb was thrown at a paramilitary vehicle yesterday. Police fired teargas to disperse onlookers and schools were ordered to close early. It was unclear how many people were hurt. Residents said four police were killed or wounded but officials would not comment.
The Chinese premier has accused the Dalai Lama of organized violence by the Tibet government in exile along with its western supporters. The scenes of violence perpetrated on the streets of Tibet and neighboring provinces raise questions about the non-violence preached by the Dalai Lama and his supporters. The Dalai Lama, speaking to the media in India, has denied supporting violence. He has offered to resign if the violence continues.
But the anti-Chinese protests and violence across Tibet and in neighboring provinces have continued where many Tibetans live. According to the news reports from a remote corner of Gansu province, hundreds of Tibetans on horseback galloped through a town shouting “Come back Dalai Lama” and “Free the Panchen Lama”, before ripping down a Chinese flag and raising a Tibetan snow lion banner.
Both the Indian and Nepalese governments have taken steps to curb the Tibetans and other international protesters attempting to use their soil for protests and marches against China.
Regardless of one's political views on Darfur, Tibet or China policies, it is not hard to conclude that the efforts to disrupt Beijing Olympics are being orchestrated by a coalition of well-known anti-Chinese individuals and organizations with an ax to grind. It is a shame that sports and politics are being mixed to the detriment of promoting a better understanding through international sporting events. This campaign directed at China is likely to damage the Olympics movement and the athletes around the world.
The efforts to recruit athletes to stage protests in front of the news media during the Olympics and the recent troubles in Tibet and Western China do not appear to be spontaneous. The West-based Free Tibet and Team Darfur movements and their media-savvy supporters, including many celebrities, athletes and actors, are attempting to foment trouble in China before, during and after the Olympics.
The pressure is building up on national Olympic committees as well. The US Olympic Committee has come under criticism for its stance on protests. In response, the Committee spokesman Darryl Seibel said no U.S. athlete would be reprimanded or censured for expressing a critical opinion about China's human rights record, so long as it is done in an appropriate setting. The code of conduct that 2008 U.S. Olympians will sign asks them only to respect the terms of the Olympic Charter.
A growing number of athletes from all over the world have been signed up by Team Darfur, an organization committed to raising awareness about the crisis in Sudan.
It wants to put pressure on the Sudanese authorities, and also those countries, like China, that do business with Sudan. Team Darfur plans to highlight the issue at the Beijing Olympics. Canada's former Olympic swimmer Nicky Dryden, a Team Darfur campaigner, wants athletes to make a stand during the Beijing Games.
Steven Spielberg, a high-profile Hollywood producer and director, has decided to relinquish his role in producing the Opening and Closing ceremonies for the Beijing Games. Now there are fears that his withdrawal may be followed by that of other western stars associated with the Games. There was speculation yesterday that the music producer Quincy Jones, who is writing the theme tune, might pull out. A spokesman described the reports as “speculation” but added that Jones was “keeping an eye on the situation”.
What really worry the Chinese authorities are the growing calls for a boycott of the Games. A poll of nearly 2,500 people for The Sunday Times today shows strong support for Spielberg’s stand, with 49% saying they would back a boycott by British athletes, against 33% who said such a boycott would be wrong. The poll found that 75% thought Spielberg was right to pull out and just 12% thought he was wrong.
In Lhasa, where howling Tibetan mobs turned on ethnic Han Chinese and Hui Muslims last Friday in the worst violence in nearly 20 years. Many businesses owned by the Han Chinese and Hui Muslims were attacked and burned. It should be noted here that most Hui are similar in culture to Han Chinese with the exception that they practice Islam, and have some distinctive cultural characteristics as a result. For example, as Muslims, they follow Islamic dietary laws and reject the consumption of pork, the most common meat consumed in Chinese culture, and have also given rise to their variation of Chinese cuisine, Chinese Islamic cuisine. Their mode of dress also differs only in that adult males wear white caps and females wear headscarves or (occasionally) veils, as is the case in most Islamic cultures.
News agencies report that a homemade bomb was thrown at a paramilitary vehicle yesterday. Police fired teargas to disperse onlookers and schools were ordered to close early. It was unclear how many people were hurt. Residents said four police were killed or wounded but officials would not comment.
The Chinese premier has accused the Dalai Lama of organized violence by the Tibet government in exile along with its western supporters. The scenes of violence perpetrated on the streets of Tibet and neighboring provinces raise questions about the non-violence preached by the Dalai Lama and his supporters. The Dalai Lama, speaking to the media in India, has denied supporting violence. He has offered to resign if the violence continues.
But the anti-Chinese protests and violence across Tibet and in neighboring provinces have continued where many Tibetans live. According to the news reports from a remote corner of Gansu province, hundreds of Tibetans on horseback galloped through a town shouting “Come back Dalai Lama” and “Free the Panchen Lama”, before ripping down a Chinese flag and raising a Tibetan snow lion banner.
Both the Indian and Nepalese governments have taken steps to curb the Tibetans and other international protesters attempting to use their soil for protests and marches against China.
Regardless of one's political views on Darfur, Tibet or China policies, it is not hard to conclude that the efforts to disrupt Beijing Olympics are being orchestrated by a coalition of well-known anti-Chinese individuals and organizations with an ax to grind. It is a shame that sports and politics are being mixed to the detriment of promoting a better understanding through international sporting events. This campaign directed at China is likely to damage the Olympics movement and the athletes around the world.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Growing Remittances Offer Lifeline To the Poor
Pakistan reported over 20 per cent growth in remittances from overseas Pakistanis during the first 8 months of fiscal 2007-8. The country ranked number 12 in the world with over $4b in this period. High oil prices and strong economies in the oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries are contributing to strong demand for migrant laborers.
According to a report titled "Remittance Trends 2007" by the World Bank , the flow of remittance globally continues with a robust growth with developing countries taking the lead as major recipients. The growth of remittances to developing countries remains robust because of strong growth in Europe, Middle East and Asia.
Total global remittances in 2007 were estimated by the World Bank to be $318bn of which $240bn went to people in developing countries.
"In many developing countries, remittances provide a life-line for the poor," the World Bank's senior economist Dilip Ratha told the BBC. "They are often an essential source of foreign exchange and a stabilizing force for the economy in turbulent times."
In 2007, Indian workers sent back $27bn (£13.6bn), according to new figures from the World Bank. The other countries in the top five were China with $25.7bn, Mexico's $25bn, the Philippines at $17bn and France with $12.5bn.
The top country from which money was sent was the US with $42bn in recorded outward flows. It was followed by Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and Germany.
Global remittances from migrants are now three times as large as the flows of official government aid to developing countries.
According to a report titled "Remittance Trends 2007" by the World Bank , the flow of remittance globally continues with a robust growth with developing countries taking the lead as major recipients. The growth of remittances to developing countries remains robust because of strong growth in Europe, Middle East and Asia.
Total global remittances in 2007 were estimated by the World Bank to be $318bn of which $240bn went to people in developing countries.
"In many developing countries, remittances provide a life-line for the poor," the World Bank's senior economist Dilip Ratha told the BBC. "They are often an essential source of foreign exchange and a stabilizing force for the economy in turbulent times."
In 2007, Indian workers sent back $27bn (£13.6bn), according to new figures from the World Bank. The other countries in the top five were China with $25.7bn, Mexico's $25bn, the Philippines at $17bn and France with $12.5bn.
The top country from which money was sent was the US with $42bn in recorded outward flows. It was followed by Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and Germany.
Global remittances from migrants are now three times as large as the flows of official government aid to developing countries.
A Woman Speaker: Another Token or Real Change?
Pakistan's new Parliament on Wednesday made history by electing the country's first female speaker from the party of late Benazir Bhutto.
Fehmida Mirza, 51, a businesswoman and medical doctor from a political family in Sindh province, elected to Parliament three times, won 249 of the 324 votes cast in a ballot in the National Assembly, or lower house. Her only challenger received 70 votes. Dr. Fehmida's husband, Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza, is a close friend and ally of Asif Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto.
"I am honored, I am humbled and happy," Mirza told reporters shortly before voting began. "It is one thing to sit in opposition but this chair carries big responsibility ... I am feeling that responsibility today and will, God willing, come up to expectations," she said.
In addition to the election of the first female speaker of parliament in Pakistan, the inauguration of new parliament is historic in another way: There are no burqas in sight with the defeat of the cleric alliance MMA. The real question now is whether these "history-making" events represent a real change or they are just cosmetic?
Writing in a prior post "Are Women in Pakistan Better Off Today?" I wrote as follows: "Most of the women represented in Pakistani parliament are from the same privileged, feudal class that is largely responsible for discrimination against women in Pakistan. The women in parliament have not been particularly vocal in raising the women's issues in parliament and they have not offered any serious legislation other than the Women's Protection Bill that was offered and passed because of President Musharraf's personal intervention. The word "feudal princess" often used to describe late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto applies well to the majority the women members of parliament in Pakistan. There is a continuing large literacy gap of as much as 45 percent between men and women and the opportunities for rural women's education remain elusive."
Though articulate and accomplished as a politician and a medical doctor, Dr. Fehmida Mirza fits the description of a feudal princess in the same way that Ms Bhutto did. Only time will tell if Dr. Mirza will break this stereotype and ring in real fundamental changes in the political process by being a positive and practical role model for women.
Fehmida Mirza, 51, a businesswoman and medical doctor from a political family in Sindh province, elected to Parliament three times, won 249 of the 324 votes cast in a ballot in the National Assembly, or lower house. Her only challenger received 70 votes. Dr. Fehmida's husband, Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza, is a close friend and ally of Asif Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto.
"I am honored, I am humbled and happy," Mirza told reporters shortly before voting began. "It is one thing to sit in opposition but this chair carries big responsibility ... I am feeling that responsibility today and will, God willing, come up to expectations," she said.
In addition to the election of the first female speaker of parliament in Pakistan, the inauguration of new parliament is historic in another way: There are no burqas in sight with the defeat of the cleric alliance MMA. The real question now is whether these "history-making" events represent a real change or they are just cosmetic?
Writing in a prior post "Are Women in Pakistan Better Off Today?" I wrote as follows: "Most of the women represented in Pakistani parliament are from the same privileged, feudal class that is largely responsible for discrimination against women in Pakistan. The women in parliament have not been particularly vocal in raising the women's issues in parliament and they have not offered any serious legislation other than the Women's Protection Bill that was offered and passed because of President Musharraf's personal intervention. The word "feudal princess" often used to describe late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto applies well to the majority the women members of parliament in Pakistan. There is a continuing large literacy gap of as much as 45 percent between men and women and the opportunities for rural women's education remain elusive."
Though articulate and accomplished as a politician and a medical doctor, Dr. Fehmida Mirza fits the description of a feudal princess in the same way that Ms Bhutto did. Only time will tell if Dr. Mirza will break this stereotype and ring in real fundamental changes in the political process by being a positive and practical role model for women.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Fighting the Twin Crises of Inflation and Power Cuts
As Pakistanis suffer greatly from the twin crises of hyper inflation and prolonged, daily power cuts, the life for them is getting more and more difficult every day. The traditional approaches to solve these problems such as increasing governmental subsidies for food and fuel and building more conventional fossil-fuel based generating capacity are not likely to work cost-effectively and sustain ably in the long run. It is time for Pakistanis to explore creative options to find workable, long-lasting solutions.
Economists often talk about the impact of supply and demand and consumer behavior on inflation. In fact, the consumer price index calculations in the US rely partly on consumers substituting cheaper alternatives for commodities experiencing higher inflation. For example, it is assumed that when the price of steak goes up, consumers start eating chicken instead. The often-criticized substitution process rationalizes this method to eliminate inflation from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) basket of goods and services. Indeed, substitution is proof of inflation. When a product's price rises out of consumers' ability to afford purchasing it, its clearly evidence of inflation.
Unfortunately, this assumption of substitution is not always valid, particularly when a staple food or a common form of energy is involved. For example, the people in Pakistan rely on wheat flour for most of their caloric intake. It is possible but not easy to make a substitution, particularly in a very short time-frame unless it is forced upon them due to complete lack of availability or affordability. Similarly, people are used to getting electricity from the grid or using an existing diesel-based emergency generator.
With continuing and dramatic increases in world-wide food and fuel prices, it is clear that heavy subsidies will only bankrupt the emerging nations' governments and prove ineffective in the long run. Instead, it is incumbent upon all governments, including Pakistan and India, to promote substitutions such as potatoes, rice or other sources of starch for wheat. On the energy front, solar power (roof-installed, local and central generation) or wind power should substitute for fossil-fuel generated electricity grid. Recently, Kyocera has announced production of 1.6MW roof-installed solar panels for homes that can easily supply all the needs of a large home, particularly in mostly sunny South Asia. While expensive upfront, such a strategy would alleviate the widespread power shortages and prove more cost-effective in the long run. It will also help reduce environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Substitution should be pursued as a strategy to give incentives to both the private sector and the consumers to produce and use alternatives for commodities experiencing the highest inflation rates. In general, each nation needs to diversify its sources of food and energy by encouraging more production and consumption of such alternatives. The governmental incentives can come in the form of tax credits, partial subsidies, and bringing foreign expertise and capital to help set up production of desirable alternatives. With growing populations and world demand, there will continue to be upward pressure on prices of basic commodities. The strategy of developing alternatives, therefore, needs to be a long term and a sustainable strategy.
The substitution strategy can set the stage for a larger effort to grow the economy and improve the living standards without damaging the environment. It can spur innovation and unleash the creativity of the people in Pakistan to deal with the real problems of the day while creating opportunities, jobs and wealth and build a stronger society. It can begin to address the serious environmental issues of the day such as global warming that threatens all life on the planet. It can help Pakistan avoid making the mistakes the West has made in its drive to industrialize. It can help Pakistan do well and do good at the same time.
Economists often talk about the impact of supply and demand and consumer behavior on inflation. In fact, the consumer price index calculations in the US rely partly on consumers substituting cheaper alternatives for commodities experiencing higher inflation. For example, it is assumed that when the price of steak goes up, consumers start eating chicken instead. The often-criticized substitution process rationalizes this method to eliminate inflation from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) basket of goods and services. Indeed, substitution is proof of inflation. When a product's price rises out of consumers' ability to afford purchasing it, its clearly evidence of inflation.
Unfortunately, this assumption of substitution is not always valid, particularly when a staple food or a common form of energy is involved. For example, the people in Pakistan rely on wheat flour for most of their caloric intake. It is possible but not easy to make a substitution, particularly in a very short time-frame unless it is forced upon them due to complete lack of availability or affordability. Similarly, people are used to getting electricity from the grid or using an existing diesel-based emergency generator.
With continuing and dramatic increases in world-wide food and fuel prices, it is clear that heavy subsidies will only bankrupt the emerging nations' governments and prove ineffective in the long run. Instead, it is incumbent upon all governments, including Pakistan and India, to promote substitutions such as potatoes, rice or other sources of starch for wheat. On the energy front, solar power (roof-installed, local and central generation) or wind power should substitute for fossil-fuel generated electricity grid. Recently, Kyocera has announced production of 1.6MW roof-installed solar panels for homes that can easily supply all the needs of a large home, particularly in mostly sunny South Asia. While expensive upfront, such a strategy would alleviate the widespread power shortages and prove more cost-effective in the long run. It will also help reduce environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Substitution should be pursued as a strategy to give incentives to both the private sector and the consumers to produce and use alternatives for commodities experiencing the highest inflation rates. In general, each nation needs to diversify its sources of food and energy by encouraging more production and consumption of such alternatives. The governmental incentives can come in the form of tax credits, partial subsidies, and bringing foreign expertise and capital to help set up production of desirable alternatives. With growing populations and world demand, there will continue to be upward pressure on prices of basic commodities. The strategy of developing alternatives, therefore, needs to be a long term and a sustainable strategy.
The substitution strategy can set the stage for a larger effort to grow the economy and improve the living standards without damaging the environment. It can spur innovation and unleash the creativity of the people in Pakistan to deal with the real problems of the day while creating opportunities, jobs and wealth and build a stronger society. It can begin to address the serious environmental issues of the day such as global warming that threatens all life on the planet. It can help Pakistan avoid making the mistakes the West has made in its drive to industrialize. It can help Pakistan do well and do good at the same time.
Monday, March 17, 2008
The Afghan War: Is it Dangerously Escalating?
With America's Iraq front relatively quiet, the world's attention is beginning to turn to the forgotten war in Afghanistan grabbing the spotlight. Some of the recent headlines proclaim as follows:
Monday, March 17, 2008
A suicide bomber in southern Afghanistan killed seven people, including three civilians and three NATO soldiers, as the Afghan military and the ...
Source: Bloomberg
Monday, March 17, 2008
Despite New Highways, Afghans Drive at Own Risk.
Afghan drivers say the road, and other highways like it, are more like the Wild West.
Source: NPR
Monday, March 17, 2008
Missile Strikes Kill 20 In Pakistan;
Parliament Convenes amid Tensions with Musharraf;
110 Arrested in Connection with Bombing of FBI Agents
Source: Informed Comment
Monday, March 17, 2008
Air strike kills 9 militants following bombing in Pakistan, U.S. says
Source: Reuters
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Missiles from an unmanned drone flattened a suspected militant safehouse Sunday in Pakistan's tribal area along the Afghan border, killing 20.
Source: Associated Press
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Taleban Calling the Shots: In a country that is nearly wholly reliant on wireless communications (for lack of any land-line infrastructure), the main mobile networks (all privately run) have begun switching off service at night after attacks on 10 cell towers, the latest on Tuesday night. Score this round for the Taliban.
Source: Foreign Policy Passport
May 13, 2007
Scores of civilian deaths over the past months from the heavy U.S. and allied reliance on airstrikes to battle Taliban insurgents are threatening popular support for the Afghan government and creating severe strains within the NATO alliance.
Source: International Herald Tribune
Most observers, including this scribe, see these headlines as a sign of dangerous escalation of the war in Afghanistan with growing likelihood of expanding into Pakistan and affecting the entire region. Not only are the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan, they are boldly attacking with impunity inside Pakistan under the new energetic leadership of Baitullah Mehsud.
There are parallels here between the Afghan war and the war in Indochina which began in Vietnam but grew to engulf the entire region including Cambodia and Laos. In Indochina, the US became frustrated with the lack of progress against the Viet Cong and blamed the existence of Viet Cong sanctuaries in the neighboring countries. This was followed by the US invasion of both Laos and Cambodia, resulting in more than a million deaths in carpet bombing. A similar situation is developing here, if you substitute the Viet Cong by the Taleban. The growing US frustration against the Taleban is creating a dangerous situation with the US mounting more and more cross-border attacks into the tribal region of Pakistan.
In spite of their differences with the Bush policies in Iraq, the leading US presidential candidates seem to be in agreement with attacks on insurgent targets in Pakistan, paving the way for a possible "Gulf of Tonkin" type resolution in the US Congress. This situation makes it very likely that the war in Afghanistan will become a regional war outlasting several US administrations, just like the Indochina war did in the 1960s and the early 1970s. With the presence of three nuclear powers in this region, this time the regional war could be catastrophic for the entire region and the world. In such a situation, the US may not be able to pull out like it did in Vietnam. The US policy makers would be well advised to tread with care as they contemplate their policies and actions to deal with the Afghan insurgency.
Monday, March 17, 2008
A suicide bomber in southern Afghanistan killed seven people, including three civilians and three NATO soldiers, as the Afghan military and the ...
Source: Bloomberg
Monday, March 17, 2008
Despite New Highways, Afghans Drive at Own Risk.
Afghan drivers say the road, and other highways like it, are more like the Wild West.
Source: NPR
Monday, March 17, 2008
Missile Strikes Kill 20 In Pakistan;
Parliament Convenes amid Tensions with Musharraf;
110 Arrested in Connection with Bombing of FBI Agents
Source: Informed Comment
Monday, March 17, 2008
Air strike kills 9 militants following bombing in Pakistan, U.S. says
Source: Reuters
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Missiles from an unmanned drone flattened a suspected militant safehouse Sunday in Pakistan's tribal area along the Afghan border, killing 20.
Source: Associated Press
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Taleban Calling the Shots: In a country that is nearly wholly reliant on wireless communications (for lack of any land-line infrastructure), the main mobile networks (all privately run) have begun switching off service at night after attacks on 10 cell towers, the latest on Tuesday night. Score this round for the Taliban.
Source: Foreign Policy Passport
May 13, 2007
Scores of civilian deaths over the past months from the heavy U.S. and allied reliance on airstrikes to battle Taliban insurgents are threatening popular support for the Afghan government and creating severe strains within the NATO alliance.
Source: International Herald Tribune
Most observers, including this scribe, see these headlines as a sign of dangerous escalation of the war in Afghanistan with growing likelihood of expanding into Pakistan and affecting the entire region. Not only are the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan, they are boldly attacking with impunity inside Pakistan under the new energetic leadership of Baitullah Mehsud.
There are parallels here between the Afghan war and the war in Indochina which began in Vietnam but grew to engulf the entire region including Cambodia and Laos. In Indochina, the US became frustrated with the lack of progress against the Viet Cong and blamed the existence of Viet Cong sanctuaries in the neighboring countries. This was followed by the US invasion of both Laos and Cambodia, resulting in more than a million deaths in carpet bombing. A similar situation is developing here, if you substitute the Viet Cong by the Taleban. The growing US frustration against the Taleban is creating a dangerous situation with the US mounting more and more cross-border attacks into the tribal region of Pakistan.
In spite of their differences with the Bush policies in Iraq, the leading US presidential candidates seem to be in agreement with attacks on insurgent targets in Pakistan, paving the way for a possible "Gulf of Tonkin" type resolution in the US Congress. This situation makes it very likely that the war in Afghanistan will become a regional war outlasting several US administrations, just like the Indochina war did in the 1960s and the early 1970s. With the presence of three nuclear powers in this region, this time the regional war could be catastrophic for the entire region and the world. In such a situation, the US may not be able to pull out like it did in Vietnam. The US policy makers would be well advised to tread with care as they contemplate their policies and actions to deal with the Afghan insurgency.
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