Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Pakistan Bolsters its Conventional Deterrence Against Modi's Massive War Machine

Pakistan military is significantly outmanned and outgunned by Prime Minister Modi's massive war machine, which Indian Hindu Nationalist leadership continues to threaten to unleash against its neighbor to the west. Using the false pretext of "cross-border terrorism", it has already been used twice against Pakistan since Modi's election to the highest office in 2014. At the same time, the Modi government has stepped up it covert support of terrorist groups, including the TTP and the BLA, to attack Pakistan. In response, Pakistan is modernizing its conventional forces to deter the much larger enemy to the east. Key new capabilities include Pakistan's new conventional rocket force, a large number of self-propelled howitzers, an expanded drone fleet, induction of the first of eight new Hangor Class stealthy submarines, launching of 6 spy/communications satellites and deployment of a modern multi-layered air defense system.

Pakistan's Conventional Deterrence Capabilities

Pakistan Army Rocket Force:

The Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC) is a command of the Pakistan Army responsible for controlling and operating conventional rockets and missiles (including cruise missiles) as well as multi-rocket launchers to enhance conventional, non-nuclear high-precision deep-strike capabilities. It is currently equipped with the Fatah series of rockets and missiles.

Pakistan's Fatah-4 Cruise Missile. Source: Janes

The latest addition to its arsenal is Fatah 4, a radar-evading terrain-hugging cruise missile capable of precisely hitting targets as far as 750 km. It flies only 50m above ground, using terrain imagery for navigation even when all communication/GPS is denied.

Self-Propelled Howitzers:

The Pakistan Army now operates a large fleet of self-propelled (SP) and truck-mounted howitzers, anchored by the modern Chinese-made SH-15 and tracked M109 systems.

The Army has positioned its SH-15 howitzers and tracked artillery units in key strategic sectors facing the Indian border (including areas near the Line of Control and the International Border in Punjab, Sialkot, and Kashmir) to enhance counter-battery operations and long-range conventional deterrence.

Pakistan Drone Fleet:

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran war have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of drone warfare. Learning from these wars, Pakistan revealed a 3,000-kilometer range one-way drone in July this year. The state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) displayed two new long-range loitering munitions – the D-248 and the S-369 – at the 2026 Indus Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Expo on July 22–23, 2026 in Islamabad.

Pakistan's Long-Range Drone D-248

The D-248 drone uses a tailless delta configuration – similar to Iran’s Shahed-136 – and carries a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 240 kg, a wingspan of 3.3 m, a payload of 30-50 kg, a maximum speed of 225 kph, a cruise speed of 185 kph, an endurance of 12-14 hours, and a flight ceiling of up to 4,500 m. Iran's Shahed drones have been used in both the Ukraine-Russia war and the US-Iran conflict. Shahed-136 is relatively inexpensive. It has a swarm capability, and a precision-strike capability at extended ranges.

Hangor Class AIP Submarines:

Pakistan Navy has inducted the first of eight new stealth submarines with air-independent propulsion (AIP). Traditionally, Pakistan's Navy has always focused on maintaining deterrence against the much larger Indian Navy by deploying submarines. The Pakistan Navy Submarine Force was established in 1964 with the induction of PNS Ghazi (formerly the US Navy's USS Diablo), making it the first submarine force to operate in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Indians falsely claim that they sank PNS Ghazi; in fact its sinking was the result of a mine-laying accident in the Indian port of Vishakhpatnam.

With the induction of the first Hangor class submarine, Pakistan Navy's submarine fleet now has six AIP submarines on active duty. The current fleet includes 3 Agosta 90Bs and 3 Agosta 70Bs made in France. The fleet strength will rise to 13 after China delivers the remaining 7 Hangor class submarines over the next few years.

Pakistani Submarine Hangor Sunk India's INS Khukri

Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor (hence Hangor Class for new subs) sunk Indian warship INS Khukri off the coast of Diu, Gujarat on December 9, 1971, the first such sinking of a warship since WW2 by a submarine. 194 Indian Navy sailors died in the sinking that has been described in detail by the Indian Defense Review in 2014.

Spy Satellites Launched:

Pakistan has put 6 spy satellites in space to boost its communications and surveillance capability. Pakistan's space agency SUPARCO achieved a major milestone by launching six indigenous satellites over the last two months (January 2025 – April 2026), marking a shift toward rapid space technology expansion. The fleet, aimed at Earth observation and agriculture, includes EO-1, EO-2, AI-powered EO-3, and Pakistan's first hyperspectral satellite, HS-1.

China-Pakistan Space Cooperation

Multi-Layered Air Defense:

Pakistan has built a multi-layered air defense system to counter airborne threats from aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles, and drone swarms. It covers long-range, medium-range, short-range and Terminal Close-In and Counter-Drone (C-UAS) Layers.

Multi-Domain Warfare:

Drones are becoming an important part of modern warfare, as demonstrated by ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Gaining military advantage in future conflicts will increasingly depend on how well states conduct technology-driven multi-domain operations by integrating aircraft, drones, electronic warfare, cyber operations, intelligence and AI-assisted analysis.

Friday, September 25, 2026

Xi-Trump Summit: US-China G2 Rapprochement to Avoid Thucydides Trap

The summit meeting of the leaders of China and the United States in Washington appears to signal a rapprochement between the two superpowers. President Trump has repeatedly referred to what he calls "G2", without mentioning "G7" or "G20", the groups that include many more countries. This development is seen as positive for world peace but it diminishes India's significance as a "counterweight to China" and the benefits Indians expected to flow from the US-China confrontation in Asia.

President Trump Personally Welcomed President Xi at Andrews Air Force Base

The fact that President Trump personally received President Xi at Andrews Air Force Base upon his arrival is yet another indication that the US now recognizes China as a peer competitor. President Xi, for his part, has talked about the need for the two superpowers to avoid the "Thucydides Trap", a reference to the potential for war between an established superpower and a rising superpower.

Top American officials have been preparing for this moment for several years. In an interview on Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Brian Kilmeade in 2025 that “China is going to be a rich and powerful country. No matter what we do, that’s what – we’re going to have to deal with that. But we have to deal with the reality. What we cannot have is a world where China is so powerful, we depend on them. And that’s right now where we’re headed, unfortunately. That’s going to change. That’s going to change under President Trump”.

Anthony Blinken who preceded Secretary Rubio made a similar acknowledgement earlier in 2022: “China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it,”

"One of the most complex and arguably most important relationships we have is the one with China. There are aspects of contestation, there are aspects of cooperation, and we want to avoid conflict. They're a lot bigger than we are, their market's a lot bigger, their manufacturing is three times ours, they've got more ships, they put forward more papers and more patents. As strong and as powerful as we are, playing one-on-one can be tough", Blinken added later in 2023.

The Beijing-Washington rapprochement is clearly in Pakistan's interest. Islamabad has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Nepal Tragedy Raises Fears of Massive Glacier Melt in Pakistani Mountains

Northern Pakistan is home to over 13,000 glaciers which pose a risk of catastrophic flash floods similar to the recent flash floods in Nepal. Pakistani officials have warned that shifts in glacier behavior are increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where communities face growing exposure to sudden flooding and landslides.

Glacial Lake in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan Region. Source: AIGEO360

Pakistan is actively monitoring its glaciers using real-time weather tracking and roughly 350 sensor devices installed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) to mitigate glacial flash flood risks.

This year, the PMD reported record-breaking summer heat across northern valleys (such as Chilas reaching 48.5°C and Bunji hitting 46.1°C), accelerating ice melt in Gilgit-Baltistan region and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The heat triggered two major GLOF events that were officially recorded during the 2026 monsoon season in Gilgit-Baltistan, causing localized road and infrastructure damage but no casualties due to early siren activation and community alerts.

Pakistani lawmakers and committees argue that the current count of 350 sensors remains critically low for tracking the vast Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) glacier network. They are calling for expanded international support to significantly increase the number of sensors to enhance monitoring network.

Hasanabad Bridge Collapse in Pakistan

Earlier in 2022, record-high temperatures in Pakistan's northern region caused Shisper glacier to melt rapidly, triggering the collapse of the Hassanabad Bridge along the Karakoram Highway.

Pakistan is in the midst of a major solar energy revolution led by consumers. Driven by soaring electricity costs, unreliable grid infrastructure, and cheap imported solar panels, millions of households and businesses have installed rooftop solar. This rapid transition to solar has transformed the country's energy landscape. According to the report, Pakistan’s total electricity demand increased by 33 terawatt-hours (TWh) between fiscal years 2023 and 2025. Distributed solar generation alone grew by 36 TWh during the same period, making it the primary driver of electricity demand growth and offsetting declines elsewhere in the power system.

Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global carbon emissions, is among the countries considered most vulnerable to climate change. About a third of the country was devastated by massive floods in 2022. The nation committed continued pursuit of nature-based solutions to the problem at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. As part of this commitment, the country is planting one of the world's largest mangrove forests in the Indus River Delta, a key component of its Ten Billion Tree Tsunami campaign launched by former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The United States, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times.

Ten Billion Tree Tsunami: Olive Revolution in Pakistan

Rooftop Solar Net Metering Growth in Pakistan

Climate Change "Loss and Damage"

Pakistan is the 3rd Fastest Growing Trillion Dollar Economy

CPEC Financing: Is China Ripping Off Pakistan?

Pakistan Ramps Up Nuclear Power Generation

Is Pakistan Ready For Clean Energy Revolution?

China Global Power Database on Power Plants in Pakistan

CPEC Transforming Pakistan

Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom

Pakistan Among Top 3 Countries For New Hydro Installed Capacity

Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Is the Pakistani Military Ready for Modern Drone Warfare?

The Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Israel-Iran war have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of drone warfare. Is the Pakistani military learning lessons from them to prepare for future conflicts? Let's examine the answer to this question based on recent announcements.

Pakistan's Long Range Drone D-248

Pakistan has revealed a 3,000-kilometer range one-way drone in July this year. The state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) displayed two new long-range loitering munitions – the D-248 and the S-369 – at the 2026 Indus Robotics and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Expo on July 22–23, 2026 in Islamabad.

Pakistani Military Official in Ukraine. Source: New York Times

Pakistan is also in talks with Ukraine's Fire Point whose long-range drones have launched spectacular strikes deep inside Russia in recent weeks. Fire Point is promoting its FP-1 Deep Strike, a loitering munition with a range of 2,600 km, as well as FP-2 Front Strike, a loitering munition with a range of up to 200 km.

During a recent exercise, called Combined Resolve, Ukrainian drone units easily spotted and defeated U.S. troops and armored vehicles on rotation from Fort Hood in Texas, according to people familiar with the events, reports the Wall Street Journal. It's not just the Americans who fared badly against Ukrainian drones; the British and the Swedes have also witnessed easy Ukrainian triumphs in military exercises. The U.S. has also struggled to defend against Iran’s long-range Shahed drones, which have killed and injured many American soldiers and destroyed aircraft.

The exercising troops from the United States sent heavy armored vehicles into battle that threw up dust and were easy for Ukrainian reconnaissance drones to spot, according to a participant. Those drones were followed by drones dropping explosives and first-person-view drones, which smash into targets in combat, this person said.

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Solar Energy Revolution Sparks Battery Boom in Pakistan

After installing over 50 GW of solar panels as of early 2026, Pakistanis are now adding batteries at a rapid pace. The country has imported nearly 7.6 GWh of batteries, with nearly 60% of that total arriving during 2025 alone. Pakistanis are now installing batteries at a rate exceeding 5 GWh annually, according to a recent report by Renewable First. Batteries enable consumers to store excess solar electricity generated during daylight hours for use at night and to smooth out demand on the grid. Batteries also contribute to national grid stability, reducing costs and improving overall energy security for energy-import-dependent Pakistan.

Pakistan's Battery Boom. Source: Renewable First

By FY25, 7.3 million households in Pakistan had solar installed on their rooftops; out of a total 40 million households in the country, that makes nearly 1 in 5 of all Pakistani homes, the report says. With the battery boom gaining pace, around 282,000 solarized households, roughly 4%, now have BESS storage installed at home. That's 1 in every 26 solarized households, a share that is rising fast as storage costs continue to fall.

Lithium-Ion Battery Price Declines. Source: Renewable First

Battery prices have declined about 75% over the past decade, from over $460 per kWh in 2015 to approx. $110 per kWh in 2024, with forecast of further declines through 2027. The introduction of sodium-ion technology is likely to further accelerate widespread adoption of battery storage. Sodium-ion batteries are expected to replace lithium-ion (specifically low-cost LFP) batteries in most stationary (non-ev) applications by reducing prices by 30% to 50%.

Battery Technology Comparison. Source: BoltEarth

A big chunk of Pakistan's import bill goes to pay for energy imports. Last fiscal year, which ended in June, 2026, Pakistan imported oil and gas worth $17 billion, exacerbating the current account deficit. By one estimate, Pakistan avoided over $12 billion in oil and gas import costs between 2021 and February 2026 because of its consumer-led solar revolution. A further ~$6.3 billion hydrocarbon import savings are projected by the end of 2026. Energy imports are the most volatile part of Pakistan's imports because of oil shocks such as the one created by the US-Iran war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Batteries Can Smooth Out Electricity Demand Duck Curve in Pakistan. Source: Business Record

The ongoing solar revolution and battery boom in Pakistan will help reduce energy costs, improve energy security and help deal with the impact of climate change. Pakistan government policies should fully support this consumer-led movement toward the country's energy independence.

Pakistan's Real Total GDP Exceeds $1 Trillion

Pakistan's Digital Public Infrastructure

Pakistan's Rapid Electrification Stimulating Economy

Pakistan's Electricity Consumption Up 21% in Just Two Years

Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

ASER Pakistan Reports Substantial Progress in Enrolling Out-of-School Children

Pakistan Household Survey Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Will the Mecca Pact Deter Attacks Against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey?

Pakistan has historically enjoyed close friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So why did the three nations feel the need to formalize these ties with a mutual defense agreement in Mecca this week? Many answers to this question can all be traced to a fundamental change in the security environment in the Middle East. Foremost among these changes is the extremely reckless behavior of the state of Israel which has had full political, military, economic and diplomatic backing of the West. This unqualified western support began with the Gaza genocide and culminated in the launch of joint US-Israeli assault on Iran in February this year.

The entire Middle East region and the Islamic world has helplessly witnessed as the Israeli military butchered innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon and threatened to expand the war to the entire region. Some Israeli politicians issued warnings to Turkey and Pakistan. During this period, the West not only failed to restrain Israel but actively supported it with funds and weapons. The United States and Britain also suppressed domestic criticism of Israel by arresting or deporting people. They went after the chief prosector and the judges of the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued war crimes indictments of Israeli officials for their conduct in Gaza.

The joint Israeli-American aggression against Iran has spiraled into Iranian attacks against the US bases in the Persian Gulf region. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of oil and gas to the rest of the world. It has caused high oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy, Pakistan has stepped in to broker a ceasefire and mediate between the United States and Iran.

While there are many explanations and interpretations of the rationale for the Mecca Pact, there is no question that signing such a mutual defense agreement has been accelerated by the security situation created by Israeli aggression in the Middle East which was fully backed by the United States and other major western nations. It seems that the United States and its western allies have legitimized the principle of "might is right" in the Middle East. Essentially, the law of the jungle has replaced the "rules-based" world order. Hard power now matters more than ever.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as a credible military power in terms of both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The Pakistani military's strong performance was recognized in May this year as it responded to what India called its "Operation Sindoor". The country has developed a range of short and medium-range missiles capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Its longest range missile Shaheen 3 can hit deep inside India and Israel. In 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Pakistan after accusing it of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the US mainland.

Combining the Turkish military-industrial capacity with Saudi economic resources and Pakistan's large military and nuclear umbrella creates a formidable deterrent to any adventurism by Israel or any other hostile power against any of these three countries. That is the fundamental value of the Mecca Pact.

On the global stage, Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Geopolitics: Changing Dynamics of Pakistan's Ties to China and the US

Pakistan has long sought to balance its foreign policy between China and the United States through a pragmatic hedging strategy, gaining economic, military, and diplomatic benefits from both superpowers while maintaining strategic autonomy. But the relationship between Pakistan and China is not the same as the one between Pakistan and the United States. Pakistan's ties with China are strategic while those with the United States remain tactical and transactional. What has changed recently is that Pakistan is no longer waging war to help the United States as it did during the "Cold War" and the "War on Terror". Instead, Pakistan has emerged as a peacemaker between the US and Iran.

Both China and US Are Courting Pakistan

In a piece titled "Pakistan's Great Game", French political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot has explained what he sees as Pakistan's "tactics and strategy" in dealing with the two superpowers. Here's a quote from Jaffrelot's recent article on the subject:

"While Pakistan’s relationship with China is rooted in strategic logic, its relationship with the United States is more tactical in nature-and has been since the 1950s, when General Ayub Khan boasted of his ability to play "one lion against another" (referring to the United States and the USSR at the start of the Cold War). In its dealings with the United States, Pakistan has played the role of intermediary, or even "client," within a typical clientelist framework: in exchange for the services Islamabad provided to Washington, the United States provided Pakistan with substantial aid and agreed to sell it sophisticated weapons, and even to train its officers-a privilege greatly appreciated..... The first major service rendered by the Pakistanis to the Americans was none other than the intermediary role played by General Yahya Khan vis-à-vis Chairman Mao in the early 1970s, which led to the United States’ recognition of the People’s Republic of China. Over the following decade, Pakistan served as an intermediary between Washington and the mujahideen tasked with driving the Soviets out of Afghanistan. And in the 2000s, Pakistan was tasked by Washington with hunting down al-Qaeda-with much more mixed success this time, as evidenced by the discovery of bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad in 2011".

Pakistan PM Sharif (L) with Chinese President Xi

Jaffrelot goes on to say that the United States has repeatedly proved to be an unreliable partner of the South Asia nation. "Whenever the United States no longer needed Pakistan-or even felt betrayed by it-it abandoned the country or even imposed sanctions on it", he writes.

More recently, Pakistan's usefulness to the US has once again become obvious, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace with Iran, Jaffrelot says.

"In 2026, Pakistan appears useful once again, no longer to wage war against the USSR or terrorism, but to make peace. Each time, these glorious episodes were very short-lived and came to an end due to criticism of the Pakistani regime’s authoritarianism - with the military always remaining in power, even when civilians are in the forefront; its ties to Islamists accused of terrorist activities - particularly in India; or accusations of nuclear proliferation. Will the same be true tomorrow, once the war in Iran is over and the United States no longer needs Pakistan? Everything will, of course, depend on the outcome of the conflict and the role Pakistan plays in resolving it-for it will be harder to send Islamabad back home if the world owes it something resembling peace".

Oval Office Photo: L to R: VP JD Vance, President Trump, PM Sharif, FM Munir & Sec of State Rubio

Jaffrelot argues that "Pakistan has reached a turning point through the recognition of its military capabilities, as reflected in the mutual defense agreement it signed with Saudi Arabia...... Last June, Kaja Kallas, the EU Vice President in charge of the Union’s international relations, on the occasion of the 8th Strategic Dialogue between Pakistan and the European Union in Islamabad, thanked Pakistan-"a major regional power"-for its efforts in helping to avert an "all-out war" in the Middle East. Jaffrelot now sees Pakistan's new role as a "net security provider" in West Asia and the Middle East.

He writes: "A more significant factor entering the equation relates to regional balances of power: Pakistan will continue to serve as a "net security provider" for Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia if those countries continue to fear the rise of Israel - a potential regional hegemon - and if they doubt Washington’s intentions, or even its mere reliability. There is no doubt that Pakistan itself will do everything in its power to prevent Israel from asserting itself on the regional stage and to gain influence over Iran-which is what the Israeli-American plan for regime change in Iran might have entailed. At the very least, faced with the risk of Israeli hegemony based on force and repeated military interventions, Pakistan could emerge as the architect of a resistance front bringing together not only Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, but also Iran".

Jaffrelot expects India to continue its decade-long campaign to isolate Pakistan internationally. "India’s ability to isolate Pakistan-the strategy Narendra Modi has pursued for more than a decade-is another important variable, though its significance may be undermined by New Delhi’s drift toward authoritarianism and ethnocracy, as well as by the economic and social crisis threatening the country", according to Jaffrelot.

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Monday, July 20, 2026

Pakistan Joins China in World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO)

On July 16 in Shanghai, 29 countries, including China, Pakistan and Russia, signed the founding agreement of WAICO, World AI Cooperation Organization. Every BRICS founding member is in, except India. This agreement follows the launch of the US-led Pax Silica, a 24-member coalition, including India, which is designed to counter China's AI efforts. The stated goal of both these competing groups is to provide global governance, including building guardrails and setting standards, for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

US-China AI Competition

The announcement of WAICO coincided with the launch of Kimi K3 by Chinese startup Moonshot AI. Kimi K3 is the largest open-weight AI model ever built, its full weights free for the world to download from July 27. Cheaper open-source AI models like Kimi K3 pose a serious threat to U.S. proprietary models. By offering 80-90% of the capability at a fraction of the cost or for free, they are squeezing the premium pricing strategies of domestic leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Open-source AI models are a game-changer for developing nations like Pakistan, providing affordable, customizable technology without relying on expensive proprietary licenses or restrictive API models. Such models, like the ones offered by Chinese companies, empower governments and local developers to build "sovereign AI" tailored to regional languages, cultural contexts, and infrastructure limits, bypassing the need for massive data centers and reliance on foreign powers.

Top Global AI Talent. Marco Polo AI Talent Tracker

Companies, including US-based firms, are rapidly adopting AI cost-saving measures. For example, Airbnb relies on Alibaba’s Qwen model, startups like Lindy have transitioned from Anthropic to DeepSeek, and DoorDash has employed Moonshot AI for specific workflows. Overall, Chinese open-source options now account for over 40% of Hugging Face AI community and 80% of open-source developer usage globally.

Open-source AI models—which are roughly 8 to 10 times cheaper to run than proprietary ones—are rapidly closing the reasoning and contextual intelligence gap with frontier models like Anthropic's Claude. However, open source models shift the responsibility of infrastructure maintenance and security to the user.

The people of Chinese PRC origin account for 47% of the top 20% AI talent in the world based on undergraduate degree, according to a survey. Americans make up 18%, Europeans 12% and Indians 5% of the global AI researchers. In terms of the countries they serve, 57% of them work in the United States, 12% in China, 8% in the UK, 4% each in France and Germany and 3% in Canada as of 2022. While the US still has the lion's share of the top talent, its share has declined from 65% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. Marco Polo talent tracker lists Pakistan among a dozen countries for top AI talent in Asia.

More than half (15 out 25) of the institutions (companies and universities) where the top AI researchers work are located in the United States, while 6 are in China. The remaining four are in the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Canada, according to Marco Polo Global AI Talent Tracker.

Modi's AI Spectacle: Chaos and Deception in Delhi

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Large Language Model (LLM)

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

People of Chinese Origin Dominate Top Global AI Talent

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Does Pakistan's Real GDP Exceed One Trillion US Dollars?

A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059 billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms.

Pakistan's Total GDP, including Undocumented, Estimated at over $1 Trillion

In 2023 when the ILO-SMEDA study was conducted, Pakistan's official GDP was $340 billion (34% less than the undocumented GDP), bringing the total real GDP for 2023 to $797 billion. Pakistan's official GDP figure for 2025-26 is projected to be $452 billion. Assuming that the undocumented GDP has grown at the same rate as the official GDP, the undocumented GDP today works out to $607 billion, bringing the total GDP (documented and undocumented) to over $1 trillion. In terms of purchasing power parity, the total national economy, including the informal economy, is estimated to be over $4 trillion, which translates to over $16,000 per capita.

Being the largest employer, Pakistan's undocumented sector acts as a critical shock absorber for the labor force and sustains millions of low-income households. But it also restricts the government tax collection which could be invested in education, healthcare and infrastructure development. There is a temptation in Pakistan to force documentation of the entire economy as the Indian government has attempted to do. However, it will create a mass unemployment problem as many small businesses would be forced to close.

India is an example of what can go wrong in attempting to bring the informal sector into the tax net too quickly. Demonetization and GST taxes together have decimated the informal sector. But the Indian government continues to significantly overestimate its annual economic growth, particularly by misjudging the size and trajectory of the country's informal (undocumented) sector. Because of these estimation errors, researchers, including India's former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, estimate that the absolute level of India's real GDP may be overstated by 22% to 31%. This implies the average citizen's actual standard of living is lower than official data suggests.

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Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

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Solar Power Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Monday, May 4, 2026

Pakistan's New Infrastructure Investments and Trade Routes

Pakistan has recently launched 5G wireless service in multiple cities and closed financing on the 306 kilometer 6-lane Sukkur-Hyderabad M6 motorway. In addition, Pakistan is seeing significant increase in the utilization of its Gwadar and Karachi ports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran war. This will help open the trade routes from Pakistan to Central Asia via Iran, bypassing unstable Afghanistan. It has the potential to eventually make Pakistan a major transshipment hub for the region extending to the land-locked Central Asian Republics. Another major news is the Asian Development Bank financing of cross-border connectivity of the power grid and digital networks. These developments are expected to substantially enhance economic activity in the country, in spite of the short-term negative impact of the energy crisis, particularly in oil and gas imports.

5G Launch:

Wireless carriers Jazz and Zong have launched 5G services across Pakistan in March 2026. This will further expand and enhance Pakistan's digital public infrastructure. Jazz launched its 5G service across major cities, including in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Multan, and Faisalabad. Meanwhile, Jazz's competitor Zong is targeting over 16 cities with 5G speeds exceeding 1.4Gbps.

During the March auction, a total of 480 MHz of spectrum was sold across multiple bands for over $500 million, with Pakistan's main telcos, Jazz, Ufone, and Zong, snapping up the assets. Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) put a total of 597 MHz of spectrum on the table, with just over 100 MHz of this going unsold.

M6 Motorway:

Pakistan has signed an agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for $235 million in financing for two sections (120 miles) of the M6 motorway in Sindh province. The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the OPEC Fund have already agreed to finance three other sections of this motorway.

The M-6 motorway is the only missing segment in the north-south motorway route linking Karachi to Peshawar. The 306-kilometer-long, six-lane motorway will have 15 interchanges and 10 service areas.

Cross-Border Grid Connectivity:

Pakistan is joining the Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative sponsored and financed by the Asian Development Bank which will provide $50 billion for power and $20 billion for digital infrastructure. The project will link grids, boost power trading, improve broadband and develop AI-ready communities across Asia, the Pacific.

Iran Trade Routes:

Pakistan has opened six land transit routes for goods destined for Iran, creating a road corridor through its territory as thousands of containers remain stranded at Karachi port because of the United States blockade of Iranian ports and ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This development signals a major shift away from the Gulf trade infrastructure Iran had long relied upon, particularly through Jebel Ali Port in the United Arab Emirates. This represents an opportunity for Pakistan to create new trade routes to Central Asian Republics bypassing Afghanistan, eventually making Pakistani ports a major transshipment hub for the entire region.

Pakistan's newest Gwadar Port has already seen a major surge in activity, handling around 11,000 containers in April 2026 alone, surpassing its entire 2025 volume. The increase comes as shipping companies adjust routes due to disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing traffic toward safer alternatives.

Space Program:

Pakistan's space agency SUPARCO has achieved a major milestone by launching five indigenous satellites over the last 16 months (early 2025 – April 2026), marking a shift toward rapid space technology expansion. The fleet, aimed at Earth observation and agriculture, includes EO-1, EO-2, AI-powered EO-3, and Pakistan's first hyperspectral satellite, HS-1.

HS-1 is Pakistan's first hyper-spectral satellite which is equipped with advanced hyperspectral imaging sensors capable of capturing data across hundreds of narrow spectral bands. The satellite lifted off from China’s Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on a Kinetica-1 rocket. It is expected to boost Pakistan's national capacities in areas such as precision agriculture, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster management. Its high-resolution data will support improved resource management and strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate-related challenges.

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Thursday, April 9, 2026

US-Iran Ceasefire: Pakistan Saves "A Whole Civilization"

Both the American and the Iranian delegations are expected to begin peace talks in Islamabad tomorrow after the announcement of the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. The US team is led by Vice President J.D. Vance and includes President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian team includes Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. Mohammad Ghalibaf is a former IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) commander with close ties to the hardliners.

The Islamabad meeting has come as a result of the tireless efforts of the Pakistani leaders to stop the war since it started on February 28 with the US-Israeli attack on Iran. But these efforts took on special urgency on the morning of April 7, when President Donald Trump posted an ominous warning on Truth Social: "A Whole Civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again". "We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world", Trump added. The ultimatum to Iran sent shockwaves around the world because it is a fact that the president of the United States controls one of the largest stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The post came out at 8 AM US East Coast time when it was 8 PM in Islamabad. Immediately, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir stepped up their frantic efforts to save the world as Trump's deadline approached. The world heaved a sigh of relief when, about an hour before Trump's deadline, the US president acknowledged and positively responded to a Pakistani proposal to accept a two-week ceasefire which was also approved by the Iranian leadership. The oil price dropped and the stock markets rallied in the hope of a permanent end to hostilities.

President Trump's Post Accepting Ceasefire with Iran

After the ceasefire announcement two days ago, Pakistani leaders have organized a US-Iran meeting scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad. JD Vance, the Vice President of the United States is traveling to Pakistan to lead the US delegation for talks with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi.

Iran's 10-Point Proposal For Peace

Iran's 10-point proposal that Trump referred to in his post as the basis of US-Iran talks includes the following:

1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again.

2. Permanent end to war, not just a ceasefire.

3. End to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran.

5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies.

6. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz

7. Iran would impose a $2 million fee per ship transiting Hormuz.

8. Iran would split these fees with Oman.

9. Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz.

10. Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations.

Europeans and Japanese Leaders Thank You Letter to Pakistan

These are high-stakes negotiations that could fail but just the fact that the two sides have agreed to talk gives the world some hope of a better outcome. Meanwhile, many world leaders have thanked the Pakistani leaders for stepping up at a crucial time. But many in Pakistan's neighboring country of India are very unhappy about Pakistan's role in it. For example, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has derided Pakistan as a "dalal" (pimp) country. He is clearly unhappy that his country's campaign to isolate Pakistan has backfired. In fact, Pakistan's geopolitical profile has particularly risen after the country's robust response to what the Indian Prime Minister called "Operation Sindoor" which he launched against Pakistan last year in May.

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Out of School Children: ASER Pakistan Reports Substantial Increase in Enrollment

The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) Pakistan 2025 national report, officially released on March 26, 2026, shows that the number of "Out of School Children" (OOSC) aged 6-16 years in Pakistan is now 5 million, not 25 million generally reported. "The findings on access are encouraging. Enrollment levels are high, with 92.2 percent of children aged 6–16 in school and only 7.7 percent out of school", says the ASER Pakistan 2025 report. ASER Pakistan is a citizen-led initiative, primarily led by Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA) in collaboration with various national and international partners to promote foundational learning. It also works closely with over 10,000 volunteers and numerous local civil society organizations such as the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), PAL Network (People's Action for Learning), UNESCO and federal and provincial government departments in Pakistan.

Enrolling Out of School Children in Pakistan. Source: ASER Via Bilal Gilani

The latest ASER report contains a table showing that the 6 to 16 age group has around 66 million boys and girls. Based on these numbers, the out of school children's population is now 5.3 million. Of the total number of enrollees, 62% attend government schools and 27% are in private schools.

Number of Out-of-School Children 6-16 Years is 8% (5 million). Source: ASER Pakistan 2025

The number of out-of-school Pakistani preschoolers in the 3-5 years age group is 41%, according to the ASER Pakistan 2025 Report. It indicates that most Pakistani parents do not send their children to school before age 6.

Number of Out-of-School Children 3-5 Years is 41%. Source: ASER Pakistan 2025

Earlier, the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in December 2025 put the OOSC figure for children 5-16 years at 20 million. One important difference is the age bracket: ASER's figure of 5 million is for 6-16 years while the HIES figure of 20 million is for 5-16 years.

While the public spending on education remains low in Pakistan, the private sector spending is higher. Recent data indicates annual education expenditure exceeds Rs. 5 trillion ($18 billion), driven by roughly Rs. 2.8 trillion in household spending (private) and Rs. 2.23 trillion in government (public) funding, highlighting a major shift towards private financing.

The total (public+private) spending on education has been rising. In 2024-25 it was $18 billion in USD terms, twice the national defense budget of Pakistan. This appears to be driving higher school enrollment. In addition to increasing access, the key challenges for Pakistan include improving learning outcomes and reducing drop-out rates at higher grade levels.

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