Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Drones. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Pakistan's Rising Arms Sales to Developing Nations

Pakistan is emerging as a major arms supplier to developing countries in Asia and Africa. Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Nigeria and Sudan have all made significant arms purchases from Pakistan in recent years. Azerbaijan expanded its order for JF-17 Thunder Block III multi-role fighter jets from Pakistan from 16 to 40 aircraft. The recent order extends a 2024 contract worth $1.6 billion to modernize Baku’s airborne combat fleet to $4.6 billion. This makes Azerbaijan the largest export customer of the Pakistan-made warplane. Bangladesh is negotiating purchase of up to 32 JF-17 Thunder Block III aircraft from Pakistan.

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

In Africa, Pakistan has recently signed a $1.5 billion contract to supply combat drones and military trainer aircraft. The order includes 150 armored vehicles, 220 drones and 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft. Earlier in 2021, Pakistan sold three JF-17 Thunder fighter jets and ten Super Mushshak trainer aircraft to Nigeria in a deal worth nearly $200 million. From 2018 to 2021, Pakistan sold 11 JF-17 Thunder Block I aircraft to Myanmar.

Air forces of about a dozen developing nations are buying and deploying Pakistani made aircrafts. The reasons for their choice of combat-tested Pakistan manufactured airplanes include advanced BVR (beyond visual range) features, affordability and ease of acquisition, maintenance and training.

Pakistan started developing defense hardware for import substitution to reduce external dependence and to save hard currency. Now the country's defense industry is coming of age to lead the way to high value-added manufactured exports.

Pakistan has unveiled its PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental) program as a significant upgrade to its JF-17 joint program with China. The new upgrade will have a number of stealth features ranging from the use of radar-absorbing composite materials and diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI) to internal weapons bay (IWB) which will significantly reduce the aircraft's radar signature. It is targeted for completion by the end of this decade. In addition, the PFX's twin-engine design will improve maneuverability and allow greater payload capacity.

The program is part of Pakistan's broader strategy to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen the domestic defense industry. Currently, 58% of JF-17 components are manufactured locally by PAC, but Pakistan aims to increase this share to achieve full production autonomy for the PFX. It is not just about the PAF modernization but also about positioning Pakistan as an important player in the global military aviation market.

The PFX is an evolution of a plan that Pakistan announced in 2017 to develop and produce 5th generation fighter planes. It is part of Pakistan Air Force's highly ambitious Project Azm that includes building Kamra Aviation City dedicated to education, research and development and manufacturing of advanced fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and weapon systems.

The PAF has already started replacing its aging fleet with the induction of the Chinese J10C fighter jets which are considered 4.5 Gen. The J10-C has stealth features like diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI). Its BVR capability is supported by PL-15 missiles, with an engagement range of up to 200 kilometers, facilitating long-range target engagements.

The PAF has also begun the process of acquiring 5th generation Chinese J35 fighter jets. The delivery of 40 J35 fighters to Pakistan is expected within two years, potentially altering regional dynamics, particularly concerning India.

Sunday, December 1, 2024

IDEAS 2024: Pakistan Defense Industry's New Drones, Missiles and Loitering Munitions

The recently concluded IDEAS 2024, Pakistan's Biennial International Arms Expo in Karachi, featured the latest products offered by Pakistan's defense industry. These new products reflect new capabilities required by the Pakistani military for modern war-fighting to deter external enemies. The event hosted 550 exhibitors, including 340 international defense companies, as well as 350 civilian and military officials from 55 countries.

Pakistani defense manufacturers highlighted their latest products, including armed UAVs, air-launched cruise missiles, smart munitions and main battle tanks. A Pakistani defense official said a large number of memoranda of understanding (MOUs) were signed with foreign military officials which could potentially lead to $36 billion in future sales.

Pakistan Shahpar III UAV. Source: @ZARRAR3D

Pakistan's state-owned defense conglomerate Global Industrial & Defense Solutions (GIDS) displayed a new medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) – Shahpar III – at the IDEAS 2024 which was held at the Karachi Expo Center from November 24 to 27, 2024. Shahpar III features longer endurance, weapon carrying capacity, and service ceiling over the earlier platforms in the Shahpar family of UAVs. The Shahpar III will have a maximum take-off weight of 1,650 kg and can carry multiple weapons on six underwing hardpoints. It will feature domestically developed avionics and be equipped with a dual-redundant flight control computer (US MIL-STD-1553 architecture), enhancing the aircraft's reliability, according to Jane's Defense.

Sarkash Kamikaze Drone On Display at IDEAS 2024. Source: Global Defense Agency

GIDS also introduced a new Kamikaze (suicide) drone "Sarkash" at the event. The drone has a maximum range of 1,000 km, endurance of over 2 hours, a 50 kg warhead, and a total weight of 175 kg, powered by a turbojet engine. GIDS is also working on the Sarkash-1, a long-range loitering munition.

Pakistan's Blaze Loitering Munitions. Source: Quwa

GIDS also unveiled the Blaze Series of loitering munitions, including Blaze 25, Blaze 50, and Blaze 75 at IDEAS 2024. The lightest of the series, the 25 kg Blaze 25 is ideal for short-range anti-tank operations with a range of 75 km and an endurance of 60 minutes, leaving minimal acoustic and thermal signature thanks to its electric propulsion system, according to OVD. In contrast, the Blaze 50, with its 50 kg weight, 180 km range, and 20 kg warhead, is an intermediate solution for medium-range attacks and reconnaissance missions. Designed for strategic, long-range engagements, the Blaze 75, the heaviest and most powerful model, boasts a 500 km range and a 30 kg warhead. It is powered by a gasoline engine for long-term endurance.

Azb-81 LR Small Diameter Bomb. Source: Quwa

Qaswa Industries showcased its AZB-81LR Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) at IDEAS 2024. It is a stand-off weapon (SOW) with a range of 200 km. The precision-guided munition has a 250 lbs weight and has a standoff attack range of 200 kilometers, with an imaging infrared (IIR) seeker, according to defense publication Quwa.

Quwa also reported on a new Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) displayed at Expo. Using a stealthy low-observable (LO) airframe, the Rasoob-250 offers a range of 350 km with a cruising speed of Mach 0.7 and accuracy of within 5 m CEP (circular error probable). Including a booster, it has a total mass of 285 kg, with the semi-armor piercing warhead taking up 75 kg. It can be launched from drones, helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft (MPA).

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) publicly revealed for the first time a model of the next generation of its Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC)/Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) JF-17 ‘Thunder' fighter aircraft. Known as the JF-17 PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental), the model was displayed at the event in Karachi. Pakistani officials at IDEAS 2024 described the JF-17 PFX as a 4.5-plus generation twin-engine fighter aircraft. They also said that development of the type is expected to be completed before the end of the decade, according to Jane's.

Friday, November 13, 2020

Turkish and Israeli Drones Enable Azerbaijan's Decisive Victory Over Armenia

Defense analysts believe that Turkish and Israeli drones have helped Azerbaijan achieve decisive victory against Armenia. "Azerbaijan’s drones owned the battlefield in Nagorno-Karabakh — and showed future of warfare" says the Washington Post headline as tweeted by drone warfare expert Franz-Stefan Gady. Low-cost Azeri drones killed thousands of Armenian soldiers in Nagorno-Karabakh and destroyed hundreds of Armenian tanks and artillery pieces, giving a huge advantage to Azerbaijan and forcing the Armenian surrender. Armenian Prime Minister accused Pakistan of sending troops to help Azerbaijan in the conflict. Pakistan rejected Armenian allegations and congratulated Azerbaijan on its victory.

Turkish Drones

Azeris deployed a variety of drones in their war against Armenia to wrest control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that is legally part of Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenians. Azeris used Turkish Bayraktar drones which are large and reusable drones. They also Kamikaze drones made by Israel which are small and designed for one-time use in destroying targets. The small Israeli-made suicide drones are sometimes also referred to as "loitering munitions". Azeris used big old WW2 Antonov AN-2 biplanes as decoys to fool Armenian air defense systems.

Michael Kofman, military analyst and director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense think tank in Arlington, Va. is quoted by the Washington Post as saying, “Drones offer small countries very cheap access to tactical aviation and precision guided weapons, enabling them to destroy an opponent’s much-costlier equipment such as tanks and air defense systems.” “An air force is a very expensive thing,” he added. “And they permit the utility of air power to smaller, much poorer nations.”

In 2019, dozens of cheap drones were deployed against Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields to cut Saudi Aramco's production by half, according to multiple media reports. Saudi and US officials have blamed Iran for the destructive hit. This was the first time that cheap drone swarms loaded with explosives dodged sophisticated air defense systems to hit critical infrastructure targets in the history of warfare.

Small drones are hard to detect even by the most sophisticated radars. It's even harder to shoot down a drone swarm because of their small size and large numbers. After Abqaiq and Khurais attacks last year, Saudi sources revealed that 25 drones and missiles were used to hit the two sites that produced 5.7 million barrels of oil per day. The incoming low-flying small drones and missiles successfully evaded US-supplied sophisticated air defense system. Multi-billion dollar cutting edge American military hardware mainly designed to deter high altitude attacks has proved no match for low-cost drones and cruise missiles used in a strike that crippled its giant oil industry.

Friday, March 13, 2015

Burraq UCAV to Aid Pakistan's Anti-Terror Campaign

Pakistan has successfully flight-tested Burraq, its first armed drone. The new unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) fired and precisely hit both still and moving targets with Barq, a laser-guided missile it carried under its wings.

Pakistan UCAV Burraq Source: ISPR

Based on Chinese CH-3 specification,the indigenously developed Burraq can carry 100-kilogram payload. It is a medium altitude long endurance (MALE) drone which can stay up for 12 hours. The payload can be laser-guided missile Barq, similar to Chinese AR-1 missiles, or a pair of precision guided small-diameter bombs like the Chinese FT series PGM.

With its successful Burraq test, Pakistan joins eight other countries — the United States, South Africa, France, Nigeria, Britain, Iran, Israel and China — which have already put weapons onto unmanned aircraft, according to the New America Foundation. Of these, only the US, Britain and Israel have successfully deployed armed drones during military operations, the foundation said.

Pakistani military's interest in armed drone technology is based on its direct knowledge of how effective American Predator drones have been in targeting and eliminating Taliban terrorists in Pakistan's FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas).

The objections to US drone strikes in Pakistan have mainly been due to the political sensitivity with violation of sovereignty, not due to lack of precision and effectiveness. Top TTP terrorist leaders Nek Mohammad, Baitullah Mehsud and Hakimullah Mehsud have all been killed in US drone strikes.

In a rare public statement on the effectiveness of the US drone campaign in FATA, General Officer Commanding 7-Division Maj-Gen Ghayur Mehmood serving in Waziristan in 2011 confirmed the effectiveness of US Predators when he said: "Yes there are a few civilian casualties in such precision strikes, but a majority of those eliminated are terrorists, including foreign terrorist elements.”

Pakistan is hoping to emulate the success of American drones in FATA by deploying Burraq in its ongoing anti-terror campaign in Waziristan and other tribal agencies. Burraq has the ability to linger over targets for long periods of time, gather intelligence and fire deadly missiles precisely at much lower cost than fighter planes like F-16 and JF-17.

Here's a video of Burraq Test:

http://dai.ly/x2jf47j

Pakistan successfully tests 'Burraq' first... by dawn-news

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Drones Outrage and Inspire Pakistanis

US Drone Strikes and Bloody Blowback in Pakistan

Pakistan Shaheen 3 Can Serve as SLV and Hit Deep Inside India & Israel

IDEAS 2014: Pakistan's Biggest Ever Arms Bazar

Revolution in Military Affairs in South Asia

Pakistan Defense Production Goes High-Tech

Drones Outrage and Inspire Pakistanis

RMA Status in Pakistan

Cyber Wars in South Asia

Genomics and Biotech Advances in Pakistan

India's Israel Envy: What if Modi Attacks Pakistan

Eating Grass: Pakistan's Nuclear Program

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Changing Face of Pak Protests: Containers, Drones, Music, Social Media

PTI's month-long sit-in led by Imran Khan is setting new standards for political protest rallies in Pakistan. Tens of thousands of urban middle class Pakistanis are joining in to enthusiastically listen to the PTI chief's speeches from the top of a shipping container, with pauses filled with music and dance while media drones hover overhead to cover it 24X7. Social media are abuzz with regular tweets and facebook posts from the attendees and their followers keeping millions more updated on the proceedings of PTI's month-long Dharna (sit-in) in Islamabad.

Urban Middle Class:

Historically, Pakistani politics has been dominated by feudal politicians who hold political rallies with their peasants in attendance who are guaranteed to cast their votes for their landlords in every election. The growth of the urban middle class in years 2000-2008 and the emergence of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) as a political force is changing all that. For the first time in the last 6+ decades, Pakistan's middle-class city dwellers are now participating in the political process by voting in elections and attending rallies.

Shipping Containers:

Both the government and the PTI and PAT dharna organizers are making extensive use of shipping containers. The government uses them to try and block people's participation in Opposition marches and rallies while the Opposition uses them to house leaders and the container roofs as raised platforms for making speeches.

It seems that the containers have now become a must-have accessory for the modern politician in Pakistan. The cost of converting such containers into mobile homes and speech platforms can easily run into tens of thousands of dollars.

Journalism Drones:

Drones fitted with high-definition cameras are making history in drone journalism in Islamabad.

Since tens of thousands of supporters of Imran Khan and Allama Tahir ul Qadri marched into Islamabad a amoth ago, there have been continuous live aerial images and spectacular videos of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf's and Pakistan Awami Tehrik's massive but peaceful sit-in protests broadcast directly from Islamabad by several Pakistani TV channels. This breathtaking live drone camera coverage of a major media event has made drone journalism history in the South Asian country of over 180 million people.

Music:

Well-timed pauses in Imran Khan's speeches are filled with pre-selected music played by DJ Butt, a professional disk Jockey. Thousands of attendees dance to the music drawing the ire of conservative right-wingers. Some of them dismiss it as just a concert while others pull out their well-worn fatwas declaring the whole thing "haram" (forbidden) in Islam. The government feels so threatened by it that they have arrested DJ Butt on terrorism charges.

DJ Butt plays national and devotional songs during speeches: from Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan to Junoon to Ataullah Eesa Khelvi to some tracks especially created by Yousaf Salahuddin. Songs played most often at Imran Khan's rallies include "Mein to dekhonga/ tum bhi dekho gai" by Bilal Maqsood, "Tabdeeli aagaye hai yaaro" by Waqqas Qadir Shaikh and Atif Ali, "Jab ayega Imran/ Banega Naya Pakistan" by Ataullah Eesa Khelvi and "Jitna Vi Imran Khan Jitna" by Abrar ul Haq.

Internet Stats Source: World Bank

Social Media:

PTI activists, and to a lesser extent PAT supporters, have dominated the social media in Pakistan for at least a month to get their messages and news out to millions of Facebook and Twitter users in the country and across the world.

Summary:

Regardless of the outcome of the PTI-PAT month-long dharna (sit-in), the protest movement has already broken new ground in terms of the demographics of the participants and the effective use of shipping containers, drones, music and social media. The 24X7 TV coverage has also served to start a broad public discussion of corruption, nepotism, misrule and abuse of power by Pakistan's ruling politicians.

Here's a video of "Jab Ayega Imran" sung by Ataullah Esakhelvi:

jab aye ga imran by bastichawli

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Nawaz Sharif Guilty as Charged but Still PM

Pakistan Middle Class Growth

Pakistan's Protest Music

Drones Inspire and Outrage Pakistanis

Pakistan Media Revolution

Drone Journalism Lab

Military Contingency Plans For Escalating Political Crisis

Pakistani Drones in America

Imran Khan Draws Inspiration From Allama Iqbal

Kudos to Qadri

Friday, August 22, 2014

PTI-PAT Protest Coverage Makes Drone Journalism History in Pakistan

Since tens of thousands of supporters of Imran Khan and Allama Tahir ul Qadri marched into Islamabad a few days ago, there have been continuous live aerial images and spectacular videos of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf's and Pakistan Awami Tehrik's massive but peaceful sit-in protests broadcast directly from Islamabad by several Pakistani TV channels. This breathtaking live drone camera coverage of a major media event has made drone journalism history in the South Asian country of over 180 million people.

There are few examples of such mainstream media coverage using drones. One example is when Australia's Nine Networks 60 Minutes program used an unmanned aerial vehicle to broadcast images of a vast immigration detention camp set up by the Australian government away from the eyes of the media. Paparazzi, too, use drones but such activity is often illegal and frowned upon by the mainstream media.

The Punjab government banned the use of media drones in Lahore where the PTI and PAT rallies originated before converging on Islamabad. “We have banned the use of helicams/drone cameras after the Ministry of Defence has informed us in writing that the use of such flying devices by anyone except the authorised state agencies is already banned under certain rules and regulations related to civil aviation, etc,” District Coordination Officer retired Capt Muhammad Usman told Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.

In Islamabad, however, there have been half a dozen drones in the air covering the combined PTI-PAT dharna (sit-in) round the clock for the last several days. “We were stopped from using these machines yesterday to cover the placement of the containers because the authorities have become sensitive about it,” says Nadeem Ihsan, senior manager (technical) of Samaa TV, which says it used the drone camera the first time in Islamabad during the coverage of the PTI’s earlier public gathering at D-Chowk on May 11.

Pakistani authorities remain cautious about the growing use of these new drones. “We are concerned that the number of these drones may increase to an unlimited level and that would be alarming. We need to make rules to control this technology,” a senior administration official said.

Silicon Valley's Venturebeat publication cites the following additional recent examples of drone usage for reporting:

1. In December 2011, a Fair Elections rally in Moscow used a remote-control model helicopter to get government-independent aerial photos of the crowd.

2. In summer of 2013, a drone videotaped a police clash at a demonstration in Istanbul. The drone was reportedly later shot down, apparently by police.

3. In March 2014, a business systems expert shot half an hour of aerial video in East Harlem after a gas explosion demolished two buildings.

4. CNN has an ongoing request for crowdsourced drone aerial footage.

5. Using drone imagery, Wake Forest University created a 3D model of Duke Energy’s coal ash spill in North Carolina, independent of the utility-favoring state regulators.

6. Drone maker DJI has demonstrated spectacular video of its Phantom drone flying into a volcano in the Tanna island of Vanuatu.

7. In 2012, a camera drone flying near Dallas discovered blood-red spots in the Trinity River. It turned out that pig blood was being emptied via an underground pipe from the Columbia Meat packing plant, located on a creek that feeds into the river. The company was indicted on 18 criminal counts, and a trial is pending.

The civilian drones are coming. Some drone makers would like to see them swarming the skies soon. But others are horrified at the prospect of so many drones flying overhead. Before the drone usage becomes widespread, there will have to be reasonable regulations in place to address safety and privacy concerns of the public at large.

Related Link:

Haq's Musings

Drones Inspire and Outrage Pakistanis

Pakistan Media Revolution

Drone Journalism Lab

Military Contingency Plans For Escalating Political Crisis

Pakistani Drones in America

Imran Khan Draws Inspiration From Allama Iqbal

Kudos to Qadri

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Armed Drones Outrage and Inspire Pakistanis

Drone is now a household word in Pakistan. It outrages many Pakistanis when used by Americans to hunt militants and launch missiles in FATA. At the same time, it inspires a young generation of students to study artificial intelligence at 60 engineering colleges and universities in Pakistan. It has given rise to robotics competitions at engineering universities like National University of Science and Technology (NUST) and my alma mater NED Engineering University. Continuing reports of new civilian uses of drone technology are adding to the growing interest of Pakistanis in robotics.

Pakistani UAV Shahpar at IDS 2012 Show

Last week, two indigenously built drones, named Burraq and Shahpar, were inducted into Pakistan Army and Air Force to deal with both internal and external threats. A press release by the military's Inter Service Public Relations (ISPR) announced that Pakistan had inducted its first fleet of “indigenously developed Strategic Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), namely Burraq and Shahpar UAV Systems” for the Army and the Air Force. While the press release provided no other information, an photograph released by ISPR showed a model of a canard pusher UAV that appeared to be armed with two under-wing missiles.

Photo Released by ISPR

Shahpar is a tactical UAV is capable of carrying 50 Kg payload and stay aloft for 8 hours. Burraq has the capacity for 100 Kg payload with 12 hours endurance, according to Defense News. Initially, both will serve as reconnaissance platforms to gather and transmit real-time operational intelligence. In future, Burraq will likely be deployed as an armed UAV to carry and launch laser-guided missiles.

Here's an excerpt of Defense News report on Pakistani UAVs:

Burraq, based on CH-3 specs, would carry around a 100-kilogram payload and 12 hours endurance,” he (analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank) said. The given payload of the (Chinese) CH-3 is a pair of AR-1 (laser-guided) missiles, or a pair of FT-5 small diameter bombs. The ability of Pakistan to field an armed UAV has great benefits when faced with time-sensitive targets, he said. “It is important in a sense that it greatly cuts the gap from detection to shoot,” he said. Adding, “Earlier, once you detected something and wanted it taken out you had to pass on the imagery to higher ups, who had to approve and allocate resources like aircraft and by the time the aircraft got there the bad guys were long gone. Now detect, make decision, shoot and go home — all in same loop.” He does not believe there is any real significance in the systems being named for use with both the Army and the Air Force, however, as “both have been operating their own UAV squadrons for a while now.” “The Army has been using German EMT Luna X-2000 and the British [Meggitt] Banshee UAVs, while PAF as we know has a lot of faith in the Italian [Selex] Falco,” he added. The Luna was also ordered by the Pakistan Navy in June 2012.

The new drones represent a significant advance in Pakistani military's counter-insurgency capacity and battle-readiness for any major conflict in the region.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistani Army's Capabilities

India-Pakistan Military Balance

Pakistan's Defense Industry

Pakistan Army at the Gates of Delhi

Pakistan Launches UAV Production Line at Kamra

Pakistan's Military-Industrial Complex

Can Pakistani Military Defeat the Taliban?

Can Pakistan Learn From Sri Lanka to End Terror?

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Malala Day Missed Opportunity; Supreme Court Rejects Drones Plea

Discussion at Viewpoint from Overseas focused on two events last week: 1. Malala Day at the United Nations and 2. Pakistani Supreme Court's refusal to hear a petition against US drone strikes in FATA.

1. Malala Day:

Malala Day was celebrated at the United Nations at which Pakistani teenage schoolgirl Malala Yousufzai made a passionate appeal to the world to fully support girls' education in Pakistan and around the world. Pakistani leadership was conspicuously absent from this important event.

The vacuum left by the top political leadership of Pakistan was unfortunately filled by the Taliban sympathizers who spun various conspiracy theories to blame foreigners, particularly the West, for all of Pakistan's problems. While she was still speaking at the U.N., her detractors in Pakistani social media were denouncing her as a “CIA agent" or claiming that her wounds had been “faked.” There were those who said she had not been hurt at all, while others were suspicious of her global fame. The messages were in the thousands.

Malala Day is a missed opportunity for Pakistani leaders to focus the attention of the people of Pakistan on two very important issues they face: the extremely serious threat of terrorism and the denial of education to girls in the country, particularly in western provinces of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa ruled by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Balochistan ruled by Nawaz Sharif's PML(N).

2. US Drones:

Pakistani Supreme Court refused to hear a petition seeking an order to declare US drone strikes in FATA illegal. The rejection was based on technical grounds. The Court said that “under Article 247 (7) of the constitution, neither the Supreme Court nor a high court shall exercise any jurisdiction in relation to tribal area, unless (Parliament) by law otherwise provides.”

This court has not hesitated to hear petitions based on such technical grounds in the past. Pakistan's High Treason Act, for example, clearly states that “No court shall take cognizance of an offense punishable under this act except upon a complaint in writing made by a person authorized by the Federal Government in this behalf.” But this language did not stop the Supreme Court judges from hearing a petition against Pervez Musharraf earlier this year.

It appears that there is more to the Supreme Court's rejection of petition against drones than meets the eye. Could it be that the Supreme Court judges, like many others in Pakistan, know that drone strikes are the only effective means of checking the TTP today?

Watch the following video for more on the above subjects:

http://vimeo.com/70684175

Pakistan's Reaction to UN Malala Day; Supreme Court Rejects Drone Plea from WBT TV on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

UN Malala Day

Treason Trial of Musharraf

Does Sharif Have an Anti-Terror Policy?

Blowback of US Drones in Pakistan

Why is Democracy Failing in Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas-Vimeo

Viewpoint From Overseas-Youtube

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

US Drone Strikes and Bloody Blowback in Pakistan

What has caused a sudden and tragic jump in mass casualty attacks in Pakistan with over 200 deaths, mostly of Hazara Shias, in a single day on January 10, 2013? Is it just impunity or blow back from intensified US drone attacks early in 2013 as President Barack Obama accelerates US pull-out from Afghanistan? Or is it lack of national political consensus in Pakistan to punish the blood-thirsty Taliban and their murderous sectarian allies like LeJ and SSP?

Background:

In a rare public statement on the effectiveness of US drone campaign in FATA, General Officer Commanding 7-Division Maj-Gen Ghayur Mehmood serving in Waziristan in 2011 said: "Yes there are a few civilian casualties in such precision strikes, but a majority of those eliminated are terrorists, including foreign terrorist elements.” In addition, Maj-Gen Ghayur, who led Pakistani troops in North Waziristan at the time, also said that the drone attacks had negative fallout, scaring the local population and causing their migration to other places. Gen Ghayur said the drone attacks also had social and political repercussions and law-enforcement agencies often felt the heat.

In other words, US drone strikes do kill mainly militants in FATA but also cause a blow back in the rest of the country for law enforcement and innocent civilians, and the Pakistani civil administration has failed miserably in dealing with it.

Blow Back:

The January 10 terrorist attacks appear to be a strong and swift blow back to the stepped up US CIA campaign of seven strikes in the first 10 days of the year 2013. This raises a basic question as to why the Hazara community, minorities and ordinary civilians are targeted? Here are some of the possible reasons:

1. Hazaras are a soft target. They are easily identifiable by their facial features and known to live in certain neighborhoods in and around Quetta.

2. Police in Baluchistan have miserably failed in bringing to justice the sectarian attackers who are allied with the Taliban and operate with impunity.

3. When the police do arrest and prosecute terror suspects, the conviction rate in Pakistani courts is in single digits. It's either due to inadmissible evidence, poor investigative techniques, lack of witnesses or possibly judges who fear for their lives. Well-known terror suspects who openly confess to murderous attacks are allowed to walk free by judges for lack of eye-witnesses.

4. Pakistani parliament has failed to enact serious anti-terrorism legislation in the last 5 years to respond to rising civilian casualties in terrorist attacks. The goverment has also failed to protect witnesses, lawyers and judges involved in prosecuting terrorism suspects.

Possible Solutions:

1. Enact the “Investigation for Fair trial bill-2012” as soon as possible. This bill makes electronic evidence such as video footage, telephone wire-taps and e-mails admissible in terrorism cases to reduce reliance on eyewitnesses.

2. Start a serious witness protection program and provide enhanced security to lawyers and judges in terrorism cases.

3. Train police, prosecutors and judges in modern criminal justice techniques and processes to increase their effectiveness.

3. Build broad national political consensus for decisive military action in FATA from where the Taliban terrorists and their sectarian allies get support and training to carry out devastating terrorist attacks against innocent civilians throughout Pakistan.

Summary:

Pakistan must now prepare to better protect its civilian population from the intense blow back as the US intensifies its drone campaign in FATA to ensure safe withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014.

Here's a recent video discussion on the subject:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Obama Re-election and Pakistan

Pakistan's Year 2012 in Review

Taliban Attacks on Polio Workers

American CIA Sponsored Fake Vaccination Campaign

Violence Against Social Change in Pakistan

Silent Social Revolution in Pakistan

The Eclipse of Feudalism in Pakistan

Social and Structural Transformations in Pakistan

Malala Moment: Profiles in Courage-Not!

Urbanization in Pakistan Highest in South Asia

Rising Economic Mobility in Pakistan

Upwardly Mobile Pakistan

Friday, February 25, 2011

American Military Presence Destabilizing "Af-Pak"

“What we figured out is that people in the Pech (Afghanistan) really aren’t anti-U.S. or anti-anything; they just want to be left alone. Our presence is what’s destabilizing this area.”

The above quote is attributed in today's New York Times to US military sources explaining their decision to withdraw from a valley in Afghanistan's Kunar province.

This decision follows the killing of 65 civilians, including 50 women and children, in a recent NATO air strike in the Kumar province, as reported by the BBC. As is normal in such increasingly frequent incidents, the US and NATO disagree with the Afghan government and deny civilian deaths. But Afghans are convinced that NATO routinely bombs and shoots innocent people - and that belief is one of the things that keeps the insurgency alive.

I think the conflicting Afghan and American narratives of such incidents can easily be extended to what is happening in US predator strikes in Pakistan's FATA region. Such strikes from the sky are creating a much more dangerous situation by killing many innocent civilians and fueling the revenge attacks that are destabilizing nuclear-armed Pakistan.

Research by New America Foundation found that civilians made up 32 percent of deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan. This count appears to be low, as its data is taken from major U.S. and English-language Pakistani news outlet reports and accepts their characterizations of "civilians" and "militants."

The Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) conducted an on-the ground investigation of American drone strikes (from 2009 and early 2010), and concluded that the nine attacks they surveyed produced a total of 30 civilian deaths (10/10). The CIVIC report points out that Pakistani media outlets, based on government figures, put the civilian death rate from drones at about 90 percent.

The increasing deaths of innocent civilians from American CIA drones are not helping enhance the security of the Americans or Pakistanis. On the contrary, such illegal and immoral tactics are fueling more revenge attacks by suicide bombers in Pakistan. It's become a macabre war of the drones pitting American Predators and Reapers on one side against the suicide bombing human drones on the other side, with devastating carnage of mostly innocent civilian Pakistanis. There has been at least one case of Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad who cited drone deaths in Pakistan as his reason for wanting to harm innocent American civilians.

It is time for the US to recognize that its continued military presence and CIA's covert war "is what’s destabilizing” not just a small valley in Kunar province but the entire region. The people in the region are not inherently "anti-U.S. or anti-anything; they just want to be left alone". And the sooner America recognizes this reality, the better it will be for the peace and security of the Americans and the people of the entire "Af-Pak" region.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can US Afghan War Remake Pakistan?

Blackwater Bribing in Pakistan?

Jihadis Growing in Tenth Year of Afghan War

Valuing Life in Afghanistan and Pakistan

US Fighting to Stalemate in Afghanistan?

$50 Million Per Dead Taliban

Obama's High-Tech Warfare

Newsweek Defends Drone Hits

Campaign For Innocent Victims in Conflict

Thursday, February 17, 2011

US Says American Human Life is Worth $ 9.1 Million

The US Department of Homeland Security assesses the value of an American human life lost to terrorism at double that of a death from any other cause.

The value of human life in America is periodically assessed by various US government departments and agencies as part of the effort to justify the cost of safety regulations. For example, the US Department of Transportation (DOT) has used values of around $6 million per death to justify recent decisions to impose regulations that require stronger roofs on cars.

The values range from $7.9 million per victim at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to $ 9.1 million at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), according to a report in NY Times.

The American government's concern for human life in America is quite laudable. But it raises another question: How do American policies and actions abroad value human lives in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Palestine and Yemen? Why are they focusing their energies on optimizing the methods and costs of killing people more efficiently in these places and not valuing innocent lives? Why the double standard? And why are the mainstream American media, like Newsweek which justifies these killings, complicit in this ongoing murder of the innocents?

Let's take the case of innocent victims who are dying in "targeted" assassinations by the American CIA Reaper and Predator drones in Pakistan.

Research by New America Foundation found that civilians made up 32 percent of deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan. This count is appears to be low, as its data is taken from major U.S. and English-language Pakistani news outlet reports and accepts their characterizations of "civilians" and "militants."

The Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) conducted an on-the ground investigation of American drone strikes (from 2009 and early 2010), and concluded that the nine attacks they surveyed produced a total of 30 civilian deaths (10/10). The CIVIC report points out that Pakistani media outlets, based on government figures, put the civilian death rate from drones at about 90 percent.

The increasing deaths of innocent civilians from American CIA drones are not helping enhance the security of the Americans or Pakistanis. On the contrary, such illegal and immoral tactics are fueling more revenge attacks by suicide bombers in Pakistan.

It is time for the US to cease such strikes and adequately compensate those innocent individuals and families who have suffered from the brutal attacks from the sky.

Here's a video clip of CIVIC report on innocent civilian victims of US drone hits:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Valuing Life in Afghanistan and Pakistan

$50 Million Per Dead Taliban

Obama's High-Tech Warfare

Newsweek Defends Drone Hits

Campaign For Innocent Victims in Conflict

Thursday, December 31, 2009

American CIA's "Secret" War in Pakistan

The publicly-acknowledged recent deaths of several CIA agents and Blackwater personnel in a suicide bombing in Khost, Afghanistan, have once again brought the CIA's and its private contractors' combat role into sharp focus. Apparently, the attacker was a potential CIA "asset" recruited to identify targets for covert missions in Pakistan. He appears to have worn an explosives-laden suicide vest under an Afghan National Army uniform, two NATO officials told the media. The attack happened close to dusk, when some people at the base were relaxing before dinner. In a statement to the C.I.A.’s work force, President Obama said that the spy agency had been “tested as never before,” and that C.I.A. operatives had “served on the front lines in directly confronting the dangers of the 21st century.”

The CIA personnel regularly take foreign agents onto their base along the border before sending them on intelligence collection missions in eastern Afghanistan and across the border into Pakistan, said one Pentagon consultant who works closely with the C.I.A. in Afghanistan, according to a report in the New York Times.

The CIA's drone war over Pakistan has recently been in high gear. Under the Obama administration, the CIA launched more than 50 reported robotic strikes, killing several hundred people, reportedly mostly civilians. Compare that to 2008, when there were just 36 drone attacks, according to an article by Noah Schachtman in Wired magazine. Slightly at variance with the Wired report, Pakistani government estimates indicate there were 44 predator strikes carried out by US drones in the tribal areas of Pakistan over the past 12 months, and only five were able to hit their actual targets, killing five key Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders, but at the cost of over 700 innocent civilians. These statistics represent the loss 140 innocent lives for every militant killed by US drones, a reckless disregard for lives of Pakistanis in the tribal belt. And now there are strong rumors of further expansion of the U.S. drone strikes inside Pakistan in 2010, with potential for even greater innocent civilian casualties fueling further unrest in the country already wracked by extreme violence.

The false denials by both the American and the Pakistani officials of the existence of an understanding on the drone attacks and the presence of Blackwater personnel on Pakistani soil have been exposed by the investigative media and Google Earth images showing U.S. Predators parked on a Pakistani runway. In fact, the CIA publicly acknowledged what it has been doing for years when it announced that it was cutting Blackwater’s contract for servicing and arming the drones in Pakistan. The US Air Force acknowledged its attacks in Pakistan when it let slip that their drones were running missions east of the Durand Line. But counterinsurgency experts continue to worry that the robotic attacks could destabilize the region as they continue into 2010 and expand to a new front: Yemen.

While the new and more restrictive guidelines have been enacted for drone attacks by the US Air Force in Afghanistan to prevent growing civilian death toll, the CIA drone strikes in Pakistan remain essentially unconstrained. As the CIA demands cooperation from the ISI, it refuses to share with the ISI any intelligence from the CIA informants and "assets" on the ground in Pakistan that help pick the targets. Such secrecy raises suspicions that the CIA agents and "assets" in Pakistan are possibly engaged in subversive activities that the Americans want to hide from their Pakistani allies. There are also concerns about the Americans preparing to "secure" Pakistani nuclear weapons as alleged in a recent New Yorker article by Seymour Hersh.

In addition to the increasing drone attacks and rising suspicions about the role of the CIA, there are new and explosive revelations about the role and the strength of Blackwater contractors in the region. A former Blackwater employee and an ex-US Marine have alleged that Blackwater chief Erik Prince "views himself as a Christian crusader tasked with eliminating Muslims and the Islamic faith from the globe," and that Prince's companies "encouraged and rewarded the destruction of Iraqi life." The number of US contractors working for the US military and the CIA in the region exceeds the total strength of the US troops and CIA personnel, according to estimates by Jimmy Scahill who has researched and written extensively about Blackwater. The presence of over 80,000 US military and intelligence contractors in Afghanistan and Pakistan makes the level of privatization of war unprecedented.

There have also been credible reports by Jeremy Scahill in the Nation that Blackwater has been working with US special forces JSOC on American forward operating bases (FOBs), like the one in Khost, in various parts of Pakistan, including Karachi, on "snatch and grabs" of high-value targets and other sensitive actions inside and outside Pakistan. The US FOBs in the region are known to recruit and create an informants network, as confirmed by the accounts of what happened with suicide bombing and killing of CIA agents at Khost FOB in Afghanistan.

While Pakistanis must accept responsibility for their own unwise actions in the past, there is no doubt that the US presence in the region has had a huge negative impact on Pakistanis. Some of the actions by Americans, starting with the use of the "Mujaheddin" during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, have clearly contributed to the problems Pakistan faces today. These problems have been further exacerbated by the use of heavy-handed US tactics in the region, American policy of targeted assassinations by the CIA, and the use of private contractors like Blackwater who view themselves as "Christian Crusaders tasked with eliminating Muslims and the Islamic faith from the globe". There were few religious militants and no incidents of suicide bombings in Pakistan before the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. There was only a small presence of the Taliban or al Qaeda in Pakistan prior to the tragic terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. But in recent years, thousands of Pakistani soldiers have died fighting, killing or capturing the militants who fled into Pakistan from Afghanistan. And the civilian death toll from terrorist attacks in Pakistan is continuing to increase on a daily basis. The US secret war in Pakistan is not so secret any more, and it is clearly counterproductive with the rapidly deteriorating situation threatening to destabilize the nuclear-armed Islamic nation.

Pakistan is just too big to fail. Although things are likely to get worse with the latest US surge before they get better, the United States will eventually leave the region, in a year or two. And in spite of all of the serious problems it faces today, I remain optimistic that Pakistan will not only survive but thrive in the coming decades. With a fairly large educated urban middle class, vibrant media, active civil society, assertive judiciary, many philanthropic organizations, and a spirit of entrepreneurship, the nation has the necessary ingredients to overcome its current difficulties to build a democratic government accountable to its people.

Here's a video clip of Jeremy Scahill talking about the US covert war in Pakistan:

Here's former CIA official Michael Scheuer talking to NPR about the Chapman incident involving suicide bombing and killing of CIA agents:

Friday, February 20, 2009

FATA Raid Charades Endanger Pakistan and World

Is there a "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy on US Predator strikes inside Pakistan? Has Pakistan assured United States that any Pakistani protests against US drone attacks are meant for public consumption inside Pakistan? Are the reports of mistrust between US and Pakistani military a figment of of the US media imagination to defame Pakistani military? Has the policy of secrecy recently been violated by Dianne Feinstein when she revealed that the Predator drones attacking in FATA are flown from a Pakistani airfield? Do Pakistanis believe the farce of Pakistani government's public statements of protest, anger and dismay at the US policy? Are there any lines agreed between US and Pakistan differentiating direct ground incursion by US special forces and Predator attacks from the sky?

Let's try and answer the above questions by examining the events on the ground.

In September, 2008, a team of US Navy Seals was dropped by helicopter in the area of Angoor Adda in South Waziristan. There was a reported firefight between the US commandos and Pakistani soldiers on the ground. It was followed by an air strike which killed several Pakistani soldiers and civilians that the US said were militants.

The Angoor Adda raid by the US Navy Seals brought a stern warning to the US from Pakistani military. "The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country will be defended at all cost and no external force is allowed to conduct operations inside Pakistan," said Pakistan's Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in a strong statement after the incident.

The US commando raid was a surprise to Pakistanis and Kayani's warning was genuine. It was conveyed to the United States by Pakistan loudly and clearly in both public and private. As expected, it was heeded by the Americans. Since the September 2008 incursion by the US Navy Seals, there have not been any more reported ground attacks in FATA by American commandos.

However, the Predator strikes inside FATA and Pakistan's public protests present a different story. The frequency of Predator air-strikes on suspected Taliban and Al-Qaida targets has dramatically increased recently. Hardly a day goes by without reports of such strikes by US drones operated by the CIA. And Pakistani government led by Zardari routinely protests strikes by US armed drones that reportedly take off from Shamsi airfield near Jacobabad in Pakistan, as visible on Google Earth until very recently.

Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of the American drones knows that these machines fly low and slow making them easy targets for any military with a minimally sophisticated air defense system. Even if one disregards the Feinstein revelation and assumes that such contraptions fly out of Afghanistan, Pakistani military is clearly conveying the message that such drone strikes are deliberately tolerated by choosing not to shoot them down. In fact, it is easy to conclude that Pakistani military not only knows but approves Predator missions in FATA. And people who suggest that CIA does not trust Pakistani military and does not share information about drone flights and strikes are either being deliberately disingenuous or just smoking Afghan poppy.

Why is this game of Charades being played by US and Pakistan? Who are they fooling? Measured by the flagging support for war on terror, they are certainly not fooling the people of Pakistan. And the situation next door is not any better. Rising casualties of Afghan civilians are turning the Afghan people against the US military and the Karzai government and strengthening support for the Taliban. After seven years of US presence, many Afghans now believe that the Taliban offered them a much better sense of security and law and order when they ruled the nation until 2001. Last October, Christian Science Monitor reported on how the Taliban handled complaints from villagers near Kabul about a gang of thieves. The Taliban's parallel government in Logar Province – less than 40 miles from Kabul, the capital – tried and convicted the men, tarred their faces, paraded them around, and threatened to chop off their hands if they were caught stealing in the future. The thieves never bothered the locals again.

A serious but unintended and extremely dangerous consequence of the US air strikes in FATA is that the militants are moving further inland from FATA in to Pakistan's settled area such as Swat and threatening to destabilize the entire country. A destabilized, nuclear-armed Pakistan will be far more dangerous to the US, the region and the world than anything we have seen in Afghanistan or Iraq.

The Obama response to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is to order more Predator strikes and thousands of more US troops. This assumes that the problems are mainly the lack of firepower and of troop strength. But it's likely to have the opposite effect. More Predator strikes and more troops mean more fighting which will lead to more American and Afghan civilian casualties. And it will only increase the public opposition to the US presence there, and make the entire region a much more powerful magnet to draw more global Jihadists from around the world. These "holy warriors" love nothing better than to kill the American soldiers and achieve "martyrdom" for themselves.

It is clear from the developments over the last several months that the US needs a complete overhaul of both its overall strategy and tactics. Just the planned troops surge alone will not suffice. There has to be a comprehensive new strategy for political dialog, reconstruction and smart counterinsurgency tactics in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Related Links:

WorldFocus on Afghanistan

Pakistan's Prospects

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Obama's South Asia Policy

Military Occupation of Kashmir

Bruce Riedel Interview

Clues to Obama's South Asia Policy