Haq's Crystal Ball: A Look at Pak Elections 2013

Political parties and pundits are catching the election fever as the current PPP-led coalition government in Pakistan is nearing the end of its term in February 2013.

Campaign rallies are being organized across the country by major political parties including Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League factions (PML N & Q), Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulama Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others like Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), etc.



Overseas Pakistanis are getting into the spirit of elections as well. A WBT TV show called Viewpoint From Overseas recently interviewed me on the subject and asked for my analysis and predictions of winners and losers in 2013. Here's a summary of how I see the outcome of the upcoming elections in Pakistan:

1. Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party with 90 or slightly fewer seats of the 272 general seats up for direct elections in 2013.

2. Pakistan Muslim League (N) would be competing with Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) for the second spot.

3. PPP is most likely to form the next coalition government with smaller parties like PML (Q), MQM and ANP.

4. PPP will essentially retain its vote bank in rural Sindh and Southern Punjab while MQM and ANP will carry urban Sindh and KP province respectively.

5. PML (N) will have real struggle getting overall majority in Punjab province.

6. There will be little change in Balochistan given the fact that the nationalists and insurgents are not ready to talk peace and participate in elections.

For detailed analysis, please watch this video:




Here's a more recent video on election strategies of PTI, PPP and PML(N) in the battleground province of Punjab:


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Sunlight is The Best Disinfectant For Gangster Politicians of Karachi

Former Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza's dramatic August 28 press conference with a copy of the Holy Quran in his hand has become the center of news media attention in recent days.



Following this highly emotion-charged press conference which was carried live by almost all of the mainstream TV channels, Mirza has been hailed as a hero by some of the most popular TV talking heads for railing against MQM's top leadership, and for singling out Pakistan Peoples Party leader and Federal Home Minister Rehman Malik for his harshest accusations.



To assess the extent of Mirza's credibility, it is important to understand the following:

1. What triggered the latest of Mirza's outbursts? Was it Malik's decision to send the Rangers in to the Lyari neighborhood of Karachi?

2. When Mirza used a copy of the Holy Quran in the month of Ramadan to convey his sincerity, did he really tell the whole truth? or did he leave out the ugly truths about the horrific crimes committed by Karachi's armed gangs controlled by him and his ANP political allies?

The answer to both of the above questions can be found in the fact that Mirza's press conference occurred soon after he learned about the Pakistan Rangers' operation to clean out gang-infested Lyari. This operation was authorized by Rehman Malik over the objections of Mirza and without Mirza's prior knowledge to prevent him tipping off his gangster allies in Lyari.

During the Lyari operation, the Rangers discovered the horror chambers that were used to torture and kill people in recent weeks. The badly mutilated bodies of these torture victims were stuffed in bags and dumped in various parts of the city to create widespread fear. The perpetrators were none other than Mirza's allies who falsely labeled their gangs as "People's Amn (Peace) Committee" or PAC.

The Rangers also arrested 133 suspects and seized automatic weapons and ammunition that were concealed in a ditch inside a house. They also found rockets, grenades, nine sub-machine guns and hundreds of bullet rounds once they dug out the makeshift arsenal, according to the Express Tribune newspaper report.

The torture cells were found in the Nayyabad area of Lyari. One was underground while the other was on the first floor. Both were outfitted with chains, chairs, tape for gagging victims, ropes, and power tools to dismember bodies. Jackets, sacks and documents were strewn on the floor along with the uniform an indicating the identity of the victims as members of the MQM's Khimat-e-Khalq Foundation.

The TV news-anchors, talk-show hosts, and the print media reporters must not give Zulfikar Mirza a free pass when he tells the truth only selectively to hide his own misdeeds and the crimes of his political allies in patronizing criminal gangs. Nor should other politicians be spared the tough questions about their culpability in destroying Karachi's peace, and for seriously undermining Pakistan's economy. Pakistan's media must play their crucial role in exposing the growing nexus between crime and politics in Karachi, and the rest of Pakistan.

We must not forget that sunlight is the best disinfectant.

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Has the Lawyers Movement Gone Awry?

"If they demand that the Afghan refugees be returned to Afghanistan, we demand that they (the Urdu-speaking Karachi-ites) be sent back to India" so says Mr. Latif Afridi, the President of Peshawar Bar Association. This outrage from Peshawar followed the clashes between the lawyers in Karachi which were triggered by the violence of the lawless lawyers of Lahore earlier.

The lawyers movement started well and helped bring about a positive change in Pakistan as a manifestation of the rise of the middle class considered the backbone for any democracy. However, it seems that this well-intentioned movement has been hijacked by unscrupulous elements in the legal community who are willing to engage in bigotry and violence against any one who disagrees. The inflammatory rhetoric by Mr. Latif Afridi captured on video by GEO News is particularly shocking.

One of the most alarming trends in Pakistan is that the various factions of lawyers movement in different parts of the country have allied themselves with regional parties such as the MQM in Karachi, PML(N) in Lahore and Islamabad and ANP in Peshawar and Quetta. Unless the top leadership of these lawyers stop and reflect on this dangerous situation and alter their divisive rhetoric and inflammatory actions, it is within the realm of possibility that the very forces helping shape a democratic Pakistan may lead to its demise as a single nation. Democracy requires a lot of mutual tolerance, necessary compromises and great patience. It can not be nurtured or sustained in an environment of violence, bigotry and intolerance.