The outgoing Biden Administration has announced additional new sanctions against Pakistani entities working on the nation's missile program. The latest round of sanctions includes the Islamabad-based National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based organizations: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International and Rockside Enterprise. Explaining the decision, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer accused Islamabad of having developed "increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors.” “Candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer added, as reported by Reuters news agency.
"They don't acknowledge our concerns. They tell us we are biased," said the second U.S. official, adding that Pakistani officials have wrongly implied that U.S. sanctions on their missile program are intended "to handicap their ability to defend against India."
Finer said senior U.S. officials, including himself, who he said repeatedly have raised concerns about the missile program with top Pakistani officials. Washington and Islamabad, he noted, had been "long-time partners" on development, counter-terrorism and security. "That makes us question even more why Pakistan will be motivated to develop a capability that could be used against us. If those trends continue, Finer said, "Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States." The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland "is very small and they tend to be adversarial," he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China, according to Reuters.
"So, candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States," Finer said.
His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan's ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defense agency that oversees the program.
Pakistan has denounced the new US sanctions on the country’s ballistic missile program as “discriminatory” and accused the Biden administration of putting the region’s peace and security at risk. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday warned in a statement that the sanctions “have dangerous implications for strategic stability of our region and beyond”.
U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on X that the U.S. had “been clear and consistent about our concerns” over such weapons proliferation and that it would “continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues.” Pakistani officials have cast doubt on US allegations that targeted businesses were involved in weapons proliferation because previous sanctions “were based on mere doubts and suspicion without any evidence whatsoever”, according to media reports. The sanctions are also opposed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Pakistan’s imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
A.K. Chishti, a Pakistani analyst, believes that the US sanctions are aimed at disrupting Pakistan's efforts to build a second-strike capability. "The US sanctions against Pakistani firms, particularly those tied to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and other defense contractors, appear to be a calculated attempt to slow down Pakistan's nuclear missile advancements", says Chishti. "These companies are central to Pakistan’s missile program, including efforts to develop submarine-launched nuclear platforms, which are critical to second-strike capability", he wrote in an article published by The Wire Pakistan.
My own view is that Pakistan is developing heavier rocket engines for satellite launch capability to compete with India in space. Space is becoming increasingly important for national security and Pakistan has a lot of catching up to do to remain relevant.
It also appears that the events of the past year in the Middle East have reinforced the view among the peoples of many developing countries, including Pakistan, that the only law that matters in today's world is the "Law of the Jungle" in which "Might is Right". This is causing them to take their national security much more seriously than in the past. They are all looking to find ways to deter against wanton aggression and to defend themselves in the event of arracks.
Will the US pressure on Pakistan work? The following two quotes answer this question:
1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009
2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011
Rabia Akhtar, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Managing the Atom project, believes that targeting specific entities within Pakistan’s missile development framework ignores its indigenous capabilities. She says that this self-sustained program operates independently of external influences and is not easily swayed by coercive tactics. She also contends that such measures fail to address broader regional security dynamics while neglecting the provocations that drive Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
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49 comments:
Salam Sir
Thank you for starting this new, important and interesting blog. Sir I
have some questions and I hope you are doing well.
Sir what are the priorities of the government and military of Pakistan?
Do you think that a country like Pakistan which has serious issues with its economy with few billions in foreign exchange reserves and a country which is lagging behind in IT and digital infrastructure and also has serious problem of pollution,poverty, climate change and etc should be focusing on building and developing more advance, sophisticated and powerful missiles?
Sir do you know how many government hospitals and schools are their in Pakistan and what are their conditions? According to Pakistani news sources, their are some government hospitals in Pakistan which has serious shortage of electricity are running on electric generators and many of these generators are using gas as a source of supply to operate. Just imagine Sir that the patients in these hospitals ar at the mercy of these generators.
Their ar many government schools in Pakistan specially in Sindh province that are without teachers and students and the attendance of teachers and students are recorded in attendance registers and these attendance registers are sent to education ministry in Sindh for scrutiny and checking and the Sindh education ministry thinks that everything is going fine but later when the government of Sindh sends its team in the interior Sindh for inspection in these Schools, they find out their are no schools in these areas which are functional just an empty building or plot.
Salam Sir
Obviously America will impose sanctions on Pakistan if Pakistan military and defence continues to develope these types of advance missiles because American government has a feeling that Pakistan millitary intends to use these missiles against Is real in case any conflict starts in middle East because of Is real and you and all Pakistani Americans know that American government will never compromise on the issue of Is real and has 0 tolerance over the aggression which any state commits against Isreal.
The question is do you really think that Isreal is a serious and real threat to the existence of Pakistan as the government and millitary of Pakistan perceives?
Thanks
Since Pakistan's threat perceptions are largely confined to India, there is no reason why Pakistan would want to develop "significantly larger rocket motors" (as US Deputy NSA says) for its missile fleet since the range of its existing Shaheen IRBMs reportedly cover the whole of India. That is, unless Pakistan were pursuing SLVs or long-range submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) as second-strike capability as you suggest.
Speaking of SLBMs, its worth mentioning here that India reportedly tested its K-4 SLBM from INS Arighat - India's second SSBN - just last month.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/nuclear-ballistic-missile-tested-from-submarine-ins-arighaat-2641477-2024-11-28
Though 3,500 km range K-4 would provide assured second-strike capability against Pakistan if launched from an Indian submarine based off Andaman & Nicobar islands in Bay of Bengal (where India is reportedly building a naval base), its range would be insufficient as a deterrent against China. Therefore, a longer range K-5 SLBM is reportedly under development. But the difficulty with building long range SLBMs are its size restrictions inorder to fit inside the vertical launch tube of a submarine. (Land-based IRBM/ICBMs that are silo-based or TEL-mounted have greater leeway regarding their size.) The 3,500 km range K-4 SLBM is 12 m long and 1.3 m wide, while the 5,500 km+ range Agni-V IRBM is 17 m long and 2 m wide. (For comparison, China's JL-2 SLBM with a range of 7,500 km is 13 m long and 2 m wide, while Pakistan's 2,750 km range Shaheen MRBM is 19 m long and 1.4 m wide.) Clearly, if India wants to fit an SLBM equivalent of Agni-V inside a submarine launch tube, the missile needs to be significantly downsized. This probably requires the development of more energetic, compact and efficient solid propellants and grain geometry.
Its a similar challenge for Pakistan if it wants to develop an SLBM equivalent of Shaheen-III, though I have not heard of any Pakistani ballistic missile submarines under development nor any plans to modify any of its existing submarines for such a role. But the country has reportedly tested an SLCM (submarine launched cruise missile) variant of its Babur cruise missile from an under-water platform as a response to India's K-series SLBMs. These Babur SLCMs should be small enough to fit inside Pakistan Navy's Agosta-90B attack submarines, but their limited payload and range would constrain its efficacy as an assured second-strike platform. A Pakistan Navy submarine armed with Babur SLCM would have to be positioned close to India's shores to strike Indian cities in the interior or its eastern coast.
As for the other possibility that the larger rocket motors could be for an SLV programme, I have often wondered why Pakistan has so far not attempted to adapt its missile tech to develop a small SLV like Iran and North Korea did. Was it a lack of funds, a perceived lack of need, or technical limitations? Adapting a missile as a reliable SLV platform isn't as easy as it sounds if one were to look at the number of failures Iranian and North Korean SLVs have had.
Jon Finer is a Zionist Jew. He has been extremely pro-Israel. The current sanctions are designed to prevent Pakistani missiles reaching Israel, though Shaheen III is claimed to already do that. With US sanctions in place, Pakistan will be challenged in getting the minerals that make special steels used in rocket and missile motors, or more Shaheen IIIs. Those minerals include Niobium, a most favored metallurgical ingredient. These alloys are needed in making rocket motors. Such metal alloys allow high temps above 2500+ deg C, very low weight, integrity, and ability to handle very high pressures in the exhaust systems. Pakistan has no domestic availability.
Pakistani missiles cannot use GPS, though they once stupidly used to. Now internitial reference / navigation systems are used. The INS requires gyroscopes made with special alloys, which again is an issue.*
Excerpt from the 2011 Newsweek article mentioned in the post:
'The bomb lends the Pakistanis a certain diplomatic insouciance. Nukes, after all, are a valuable political tool, ensuring continued economic aid from the United States and Europe. "Pakistan knows it can outstare" the West, says Pakistani nuclear physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy. "It's confident the West knows that Pakistan's collapse is too big a price to pay, so the bailout is there in perpetuity. It's the one thing we've been successful at."'
The above assessment was from a decade ago when Pakistan had some leverage in its dealings with the US, as the latter needed Pakistan's support for its occupation of Afghanistan. After US withdrew from Afghanistan, Ishaq Dhar could not "outstare" the IMF in bailout talks as he could do earlier.
That said, the question remains as to why US seeks to sanction Pakistan's missile program at this point. It does seem an absurd argument that development of longer range Pakistani missiles would potentially threaten US (or Israel), as it is clearly not in Pakistan's interest to make more enemies (and that too ones like US or Israel). Why would the prospect of Pakistan having long range missiles threaten US interests any more than India having the same?
Pakistan dismisses US official's warning over missile programme as unfounded | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/pakistan-dismisses-us-officials-warning-over-missile-programme-unfounded-2024-12-21/
KARACHI, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Pakistan's Foreign Ministry on Saturday dismissed as unfounded and "devoid of rationality" assertions by a senior U.S. official that its missile programme could eventually pose a threat to the United States.
Earlier this week, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said Pakistan's development of long-range ballistic missiles made it an "emerging threat".
Finer's comments, which came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to the ballistic missile programme, underscored the deterioration in once-close ties between Washington and Islamabad since the 2021 U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Addressing Finer's remarks, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said the perception of an alleged threat was "unfortunate".
"These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality and sense of history," the ministry added in a statement.
The ministry said its strategic capabilities were solely for defending its sovereignty and maintaining regional stability, and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.
Pakistan’s reported J-35 deal shows Chinese stealth fighter is ready for global market: analysts | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3291826/pakistans-reported-j-35-deal-shows-chinese-stealth-fighter-ready-global-market-analysts
Pakistan’s reported procurement of J-35 jets from China signals that the stealth fighter is ready to enter the international market, potentially helping to finance development of more advanced weaponry for the People’s Liberation Army, analysts say.
The sale would mark Beijing’s first export of fifth-generation jets to a foreign ally and is expected to recalibrate regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Pakistan’s rival, India.
Pakistani broadcaster 24 News HD reported last week that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had approved the purchase of 40 of the aircraft, which are expected to be delivered within two years to replace the country’s ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters.
The headline from today's DAWN that should serve as a reminder to the Pakistani establishment that the greatest security threat the country faces now does not emanate from the eastern border, and is not on account of any perceived "strategic imbalance" with its eastern neighbour.
And this doesn't seem to be a one-off incident either, but a developing new "normal" for Pakistan on its northern and western borders.
16 soldiers martyred in attack on checkpost in South Waziristan: ISPR
https://www.dawn.com/news/1880161/16-soldiers-martyred-in-attack-on-checkpost-in-south-waziristan-ispr
Pravin Sawhney
@PravinSawhney
Since conventional war deterrence is far more important that nuclear deterrence between India & Pakistan, IAF should seriously consider SU-57 aircraft.
PAF has edge over IAF in:
1. Electronic Warfare (it demonstrated this in 2019 Balakot. And since 2021, it has been working on Cognitive AI)
2. Pak CAS, ACM Sidhu announced in Jan that his force was ready to induct fifth generation J-35A (air force version) into service. Reports say PAF to get 40 J-35A. It already has J-10C & JF-17
3. It is fair to assume that J-35A will come with advanced weapons & sensors. With this acquisition PAF will have an advanced stealth fighter, what IAF lacks.
4. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, I understand, will not be available on time. There are too many issues.
Hope Russia brings SU-57 to Aero-India in Feb 2025 in Bangalore!
https://x.com/PravinSawhney/status/1870668314344657331
IAF has had a pretty bad experience in recent times with the build quality, service life and reliability of Russian airframes and engines, especially for its fleet of Su-30 and MiG-29K jets, which is one of the reasons why they decided to go for Rafale (IAF) and Rafale-M (Navy) for its recent purchases. After an initial enthusiasm, India has not shown any further interest in acquiring Su-57. Nevertheless, Russia has been pitching the Su-57E to India once again advertising its improvements and lower costs, but it remains to be seen whether India would show renewed interest or would choose to purchase more Rafales instead.
https://idrw.org/russia-to-offer-government-to-government-deal-for-su-57e-to-india/
In any case, considering the evolving security situation in the region the chances of an actual conflict between India and Pakistan seems low at the moment, and would hopefully stay that way for the forseeable future. The situation in Kashmir and the LoC has stabilized considerably in the past few years and India is more occupied with challenges on the Chinese frontier, while Pakistan has many pressing security, political and economic challenges to deal with at home that would leave little room or appetite to start a new conflict with India.
We will buy a handful of Su57 maybe 50-100 as a stopgap measure till our own AMCA enters service in the 2030s.
JSF is not going to be offered and even if it is we should reject it.Too tight a leash..the US will give you a code every day so you can fly your own plane for a day..this is done to all NATO allies except the UK and of course Israel!!
We could also consider the South Korean KF-21 as a stop gap option..
Vineeth,
"...chances of an actual conflict between India and Pakistan seems low at the moment..."
They say all politics is local. It would depend on how the ruling junta does in Indian politics. Some small incident, real or perceived, would be used to rile up sentiments against Pakistan. Considering that the Indian public has been so thoroughly brainwashed they will believe any thing that is shoved down their throats.
G. Ali
Mr. Vineeth
Thanks for your comments, pls note that since many decades and years the Indian airforce and military depended on Russia for its major supply and imports of military equipments and air force planes.
Pls note that according to some military experts and those authors who have written books and articles about war fare and military, the Russian Technology specially those of Millitary and Defence are more strong and solid but the Russian based technologies are not as advance, flexible and user friendly in other words you can say.
It has always been a problem with Russian military equipments and specially with their fighter jets that they are very hard to repair and are not exactly and easily serviceable.
Where as American based millitary technology is not just advance but it allows the technicians and maintenance team of the airforce to easily and quickly upgrade the aircrafts and make them servicable quickly.
Mr. Vineeth
Recently the Chief of IAF( Indian airforce ) was crying in front of the Indian media and press when giving answers to questions posed by Indian journalist and press.
The IAF Chief said that mostly the aircrafts in IAF are outdated and they ar mostly 40 years old. He further said that people normally don't drive even a car which is 40 years old.
@G Ali,
First, I find your description of Indian govt as a "ruling junta" rather interesting. Let's look at the dictionary definition of a "junta".
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/junta
"a government, especially a military one, that has taken power in a country by force and not by election"
I leave it you to figure out which of the two countries - India or Pakistan - has a political system that fits the description best.
Perhaps Economist Intelligence Unit's 2023 Democracy index might be of help as well.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1814614/tumultuous-year-sees-pakistan-slide-down-democracy-index
https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2023/
Second, while Modi may use anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric in front of his domestic audience to drive his brand of politics and win votes, it would take some serious provocation from Pakistan (like the Pulwama attack) - and a relentless pressure on him from the Indian electorate in an election year to give a "befitting reply" - inorder to force his hand into a military confrontation with Pakistan. Thankfully, unlike last time Pakistan provided none of that before this year's elections and Modi had no excuse to attempt another (mis)adventure.
Also, like I said above, Modi govt knows that with its chronically weak economy and recurring political instability Pakistan at the moment is at best an irritant than a serious threat, while China is the more potent and long-term challenge that India faces. And Modi govt also knows that an enduring ceasefire and peace at the Indo-Pak border is as much in Pakistan's interest as it is India's as both Rawalpindi and New Delhi currently have other more pressing national security concerns to deal with. There is a reason why the ceasefire at LoC has held for the past couple of years despite the relationship having hit rock bottom. Neither side desires an escalation. And Modi would know he can hurt Pakistan more effectively in other ways than resort to military means.
White House Says Pakistan Is Developing Long-Range Missile Capable of Hitting the U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/white-house-says-pakistan-is-developing-long-range-missile-capable-of-hitting-the-u-s-0863d5eb?st=JnrPdo&reflink=article_email_share
U.S. revealed intelligence after Islamabad rebuffed confidential discussions about its missile program
-----
The development of a long-range missile that could target the U.S. would take several years and perhaps as long as a decade, a senior Biden administration official (Deputy NSA Jon Finer) said.
“We’re trying to build this pressure to get ahead of this problem because we don’t want Pakistan to go down this road so far that we are dealing with something that is more imminent,” the administration official added.
Pakistan has long had a close military relationship with China, which also views India as an adversary and has supplied the Pakistani military with arms and assistance for its missile program.
Finer said the U.S. is seeking a cooperative relationship with Pakistan and has worked with Islamabad on counterterrorism over the years. Despite ups and downs in relations, the U.S. has sought to preserve channels of communication, in part because of Pakistan’s position in the region and its status as a nuclear armed state.
The U.S. focus on countering China and on improving relations with India has strained ties in recent years with Islamabad, which has become less important to Washington since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
------
He (Finer) declined to say why Pakistan might want to develop such a longer-range missile. But some analysts said that Islamabad might be seeking a way to deter Washington from assisting India if another war erupted between Pakistan and India.
Pakistan might also be seeking to raise the potential risks of a U.S. effort to forcibly disarm Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal, though U.S. officials said Washington has no intention to do so.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is slowly increasing and is currently about 170 warheads, according to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, a nonprofit that looks at security issues.
Amid IDF (Israeli Military) rethink, some see air-launched missile doctrine moving to more solid ground | The Times of Israel
The air force has long promoted versatile missile systems fired from jets, but critics say new threats require a shift to ground-based arms that are faster and more cost-effective
https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-idf-rethink-some-see-air-launched-missile-doctrine-moving-to-more-solid-ground/
Israel’s defense and military procurement budget is expected to increase significantly over the next decade in a process that will require an open, professional, and transparent debate on the country’s doctrines for fighting and defense.
Among the areas of discussion will be the evolution of Israel’s long-range attack systems, including ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Currently, Israel’s defensive strategy appears to favor the use of air power, as seen in retaliatory Israeli strikes against Iran in October and against Yemen this month.
Preparing a long-range retaliatory strike with fighter jets is a complex process requiring international-level coordination, solutions for refueling, and the operation of communication, rescue, and intelligence systems. This preparation can take significant time.
Israel’s October 26 strike on Iranian military sites came weeks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles toward the Jewish state, with Israel under immense diplomatic and security pressure.
In contrast, had Israel employed precision ballistic missiles, the response could have occurred within approximately one hour, according to experts pushing for increased use of long-range arms. Using cruise missiles could have reduced response times to three or four hours, they claimed.
The reason Israel did not use ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles is that there do not appear to be many in its military arsenal, apart from the Jericho system, which foreign reports claim is designated for other strategic missions.
Instead, the military appears to be championing the development of air-based attack systems. US intelligence documents that leaked in October allegedly described Israel’s plans to attack Iran, including the potential use of ballistic missiles launched from fighter jets.
Among the weapons mentioned were missiles dubbed “Golden Horizon” and “ROCKS,” thought to refer to domestically produced air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs.
The leak marked the first known mention of the Golden Horizon system, but speculation has linked it to either the Air LORA, an ALBM made by Israel Aerospace Industries based on a ground-based missile with a range of over 400 kilometers (250 miles), or the Blue Sparrow ALBM made by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with a range of some 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles).
ROCKS, also developed by Rafael, is another ALBM; its range is approximately 300 kilometers (188 miles).
There is also a ship-launched version of the LORA, with a slightly shorter range.
On November 1, 2024, internet users spotted an Israeli Sa’ar 5-class missile boat equipped with LORA missile launchers sailing through the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea.
Salam Sir
I hope you and your team of this blog is doing well. Sir pls check the latest news on ARY digital news, Dr. Mushahid Hussain who has already worked as an internee in America and has spent 4 years in the Congress of America has just said that Indian lobbies are behind this and they were pushing the President Biden and his administration to impose sanctions on the missile program of Pakistan.
‘Net advantage for India’? What US sanctions mean for Pakistan’s relevance in Washington | South China Morning Post
Recent sanctions are further evidence of Pakistan’s relative decline in importance in the US, analysts note
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292048/net-advantage-india-what-us-sanctions-mean-pakistans-relevance-washington
The United States’ latest sanctions targeting Pakistan-based entities for their involvement in the country’s ballistic missile programme have bolstered India’s strategic position and underscored Islamabad’s fading relevance in Washington, analysts say.
The US sanctioned four entities on Wednesday, including the state-owned National Development Complex, that it said were contributing to the programme. A statement by the US Department of State said the entities were “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction”.
“Today, the United States is designating four entities that are contributing to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme. We have been clear and consistent about our concerns, and we will continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller posted on X.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, said the sanctions would benefit India by effectively limiting Pakistan’s ability to expand its ballistic missile arsenal, a development that New Delhi viewed as a strategic gain.
“Any attempt to weaken the growth of Pakistan’s missile development programme or any step to diminish the growth of any aspect of Pakistani proliferation programmes would be seen as a good thing in India, given its deep rivalry with Pakistan,” Kugelman said.
“From the zero-sum perspective, seeing its rival getting sanctioned is going to be a net advantage for India.”
Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy Shifts as U.S. Realigns Ties in Asia - The Wall Street Journal.
Political experts say a missile that can reach beyond India fits with Pakistan’s latest thinking on deterrence
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/pakistans-nuclear-strategy-shifts-as-u-s-realigns-ties-in-asia-d604df98?st=awJB43&reflink=article_email_share
“In that situation, Pakistan’s hard-liners, Pakistan’s hawks, think they need to think beyond just today and tomorrow,” said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S. and a scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. “They have to think about what happens if there is a global conflict in which India is aligned with the U.S. and Pakistan is considered as a partner of China.”
Pakistan on Tuesday rejected Biden administration officials’ assertions that it is developing ballistic-missile technology that could eventually give it the capability to strike the U.S., but geopolitical experts say long-range weapons would be in step with Islamabad’s shifting national security concerns as India and the U.S. draw closer.
The U.S. last week imposed sanctions on four entities involved in Pakistan’s missile program, including the National Development Complex, which it said oversees Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles. Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the sanctions were imposed after Washington and Islamabad failed to make progress in confidential talks.
U.S. intelligence points to efforts by Pakistan to develop equipment to test large rocket motors, according to White House officials. “Just looking at a map and looking at ranges, you know, we believe that this is fundamentally focused on us,” said Finer at an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association in Washington on Thursday.
Pakistan hasn’t publicly acknowledged developing long-range or intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its longest-range publicly known missile is the Shaheen-III, tested in 2021, with a range of about 1,700 miles.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said that there was no justification for the sanctions and that the country’s nuclear program is only for defense.
Over the weekend, the country’s foreign ministry called the claim that it has hostile intentions toward the U.S. “irrational” and said that Pakistan maintains the right to develop capabilities to deal with evolving threats.
For decades, Pakistan’s strategic national security planning has focused largely on India, which it views as a threat. Political experts say that there has been a subtle change in its posture over the past decade.
The U.S. and Pakistan were unlikely but close partners in a relationship shaped largely by U.S. objectives in Afghanistan during the Cold War, and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. But U.S. frustrations grew over what Washington said was Pakistan’s unofficial support for Taliban insurgents, and more recently over the country’s ties with China, which has bankrolled billions of dollars of infrastructure in the country.
Pakistan stunned by US fears over its missiles, assesses impact on South Asia
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3292254/pakistan-stunned-us-fears-over-its-missiles-assesses-impact-south-asia
Washington’s assessment comes as Pakistan aims to balance its relations with the US and China amid fears of collateral damage
Pakistan has been blindsided by Washington’s designation of the entity overseeing the South Asian country’s ballistic missile development as a prospective threat to US national security, officials and analysts say.
The Pakistani foreign ministry said the US move to impose economic sanctions over the Rawalpindi-based National Development Complex on December 16 was an attempt by Washington to tilt the balance of power in South Asia in favour of India. The two South Asian countries have fought several wars since partition in 1947.
US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said last Thursday that Pakistan’s missile capabilities were an “emerging threat … fundamentally focused on us”, triggering concerns in Islamabad about Washington’s intentions.
Vineeth,
Junta does not have to be military regime but could be a strong man or strong group of ruling elite.
However, if you have an issue with the word Junta then I can use “Fascist Imperialistic Regime” to define the rulers of your country.
Second, I am glad that you mentioned Pulwana. Now please read these two:
https://web.archive.org/web/20230721211517/https://frontline.thehindu.com/cover-story/pulwama-attack-intelligence-inputs-ignored-national-security-leak-compromise-balakot-bjp-win-2019/article64755942.ece
and
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/magazine/home/20001231mag-kashmir.html
“As the killers marched off, a few called out the parting words "Jai mata di," a Hindi phrase of praise for a Hindu goddess.”
Do you really think that the current fascist regime is incapable of using these techniques to save it’s rule or to divert public’s attention from any future domestic crises?
G. Ali
I think Pakistan has been obsessing too much with the "destructive" aspects of rocket propulsion technology and too little attention was spared for its more "constructive" uses as satellite launch platforms. After all, these Agni and Shaheen missiles will likely rot away unused in deterrent postures while an SLV can be utilized for a myriad of missions for the benefit of the country - communication, remote sensing, meteorology, satellite navigation etc.
Within a few days an Indian PSLV is expected to launch the SpaDeX mission to test automated docking of two small spacecrafts in orbit in preparation of the future Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission.
https://www.isro.gov.in/mission_SpaDeX.html
https://www.isro.gov.in/mission_spadex_Gallery.html
ISRO has also started assembling its larger rocket LVM3 for the first uncrewed orbital test of its Gaganyaan spacecraft by March 2025 as part of its human spaceflight program.
https://www.isro.gov.in/Gaganyaan.html
Thirdly, a GSLV rocket is expected to launch a joint NASA-ISRO dual-frequency radar satellite mission - the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) - by the latter half of 2025.
https://nisar.jpl.nasa.gov/
https://www.isro.gov.in/NISARSatellite.html
Three different Indian "missiles" being readied for three different peaceful science & technology missions with no defensive or offensive intent against any other country. Now, these should be genuinely more exciting and hype-worthy than any long-range Agnis or Shaheens, wouldn't it?
Salam Sir
Thanks for this post, I am sorry I don't completely agree with this post, yes their is a possibility that after imposing sanctions on the missile program of Pakistan, the importance of Pakistan from the aspect of security might reduce in the eyes of American government but still Pakistan having it's geographic and strategic importance in this region still makes Pakistan an important and favorite country for America.
Sir if Imran Khan is released from Jail and becomes the Prime Minister of Pakistan and if Mr. Trump takes over the Presidency of America in January 2025,inshallah their are greater chances that relations between countries will improve.
Dear Sir
This is not something new since many years Indian government has been sending it's delegation to America and they try to persuade the American government to put pressure on Pakistani authority so that they could role back their nuclear program.
I think it is India which has more obsession and problem with the nuclear programs of Pakistan than America.
America knows very well that Pakistani authorities and governments will never even think of attacking America.
Trump Threatens to Take Over Canada, Panama Canal, Greenland
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-canada-panama-canal-greenland-1235217402/
President-elect Donald Trump has once again repeated his desires for U.S. territorial expansion. In a message delivered on Christmas Day, Trump took aim at the Panama Canal and Greenland, while also addressing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau directly.
“Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal,” the president-elect began in a Truth Social post, before claiming “38,000 people” died during the waterway’s construction. (BBC previously fact checked that the number was closer to 300.) He continued, writing: “United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”
Trump then mocked Trudeau, referring to him as the “Governor” of Canada, and once again floated the idea of the country becoming the “51st State,” while promising its “Taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other Country anywhere in the World.”
The president-elect also reiterated his previous intention to bring Greenland under American control, writing that the territory, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, “is needed by the United States for National Security purposes and, who want the U.S. to be there, and we will!”
Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede made clear on Monday that the territory was not for sale. “Greenland is ours,” the prime minister said in a statement. “We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our years-long struggle for freedom.”
However, the Danish prime minister’s office issued a separate statementsaying that the government is “looking forward to welcoming the new American ambassador. And the Government is looking forward to working with the new administration.”
On Monday, the Danish government later announced a huge boost in defense spending for Greenland, per the BBC.
Trump also took the opportunity to deliver another holiday message on Wednesday, urging Hockey Hall of Famer Wayne Gretzky — who joinedTrump in Mar-a-Lago after his election win in November — to run for prime minister of Canada. “I just left Wayne Gretzky, ‘The Great One’ as he is known in Ice Hockey circles,” Trump wrote in another Truth Social post. “I said, ‘Wayne, why don’t you run for Prime Minister of Canada, soon to be known as the Governor of Canada – You would win easily, you wouldn’t even have to campaign.'”
Perhaps there is a plausible explanation for Pakistan seeking the development of larger rocket motors. There is supposedly a parallel SLV project in India's DRDO to develop a compact, road-mobile, quick-reaction all-solid launch vehicle named "Veda" based on its ballistic missiles. The objective is apparently to provide on-demand launch capability for small military satellites in LEO during war-time scenarios. By contrast, even the smallest launch vehicle in ISRO's fleet - SSLV - is still an unwieldy behemoth that is assembled vertically over days on a launch pedestal like its even bigger cousins and is therefore unsuitable for a mobile military role. If built, Veda would be similar to China's smaller quick reaction all-solid rockets like Kuaizhou and Long March 11 which can launch satellites on-demand from a road-mobile platform (TEL).
https://www.indiandefensenews.in/2023/05/drdos-defence-satellite-launch-vehicle.html
It is not publicly known if the Veda program has been granted Govt approval to proceed development or whether the project has been shelved, but perhaps Pakistan's procurement of machinery to build and test bigger diameter solid motors may have something to do with a Pakistani response to Veda. Considering the small SLVs that Iran and North Korea managed to build from their missiles, this should be within the ability of Pakistan if they could scale up their solid motors.
Its rather hard to say what Trump says with serious intent (if he does say anything with a serious intent) and what he says as bluff. Taking over Panama, Greenland and Canada all seems like the bravado that someone says at a pub after a heavy drink. He just seems to be having fun and enjoying his time.
G Ali,
You can't change the definition of a word as you like, sir. A democratically elected government isn't a 'junta' even if it shows authoritarian tendencies (which the Modi govt surely does, by democratic standards). And adjectives like 'fascist', 'imperialist' etc are thrown around these days by everyone against political parties, leaders and governments that they don't like or accuse of high-handedness. Many democratically elected right-wing leaders are called 'fascist'. US and British governments irrespective of the governing party are routinely accused as 'fascist' and 'imperialist' by left-liberals. Pakistan's close friend, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (who is a pretty close equivalent of Modi in his religion-driven politics, grand plans to recreate 'Ottoman Empire', authoritarian political style etc..) is likewise accused as 'fascist' and 'imperialist' for his style of domestic politics and foreign policies. In short, these adjectives are often subjective depending on who you ask, and therefore they don't mean much. The same Pakistani who calls Modi 'fascist' and 'imperialist' would hesitate to use them to describe Pakistan's authoritarian allies like Erdogan or Xi Jinping.
Now about Pulwama, did anything you read in that Frontline report suggest that it was the handiwork of Modi govt and not JeM - a jihadi group that is trained, armed and directed by Pakistani intelligence services through Maulana Masood Azhar? The accusation made against Modi govt in that article is that it deliberately ignored repeated intelligence warnings of an impending JeM attack to let it happen and provide excuse for a retaliatory strike in an election year. That the attack itself was perpetrated by JeM - very likely at the directions of Pakistani state - has not been contested, and the names of JeM operatives involved are all listed as well. Even if the accusation that Modi govt deliberately ignored intelligence warnings of the attack are true, that still validates what I said - that Modi would have needed a major terror attack as an excuse to strike Pakistan. In fact, one might say that in its moment of foolishness the Pakistani deep state did just what Modi wanted, and shot itself in the foot. Whoever it may be in Pakistan that instructed JeM to perpetrate the attack, if they thought it would put Modi on the backfoot in an election year, it did precisely the opposite. Furthermore, the Pulwama attack also gave Modi an excuse to strip Kashmir of whatever constitutional autonomy it had as well.
"You can't change the definition of a word as you like, sir. " as per your request I changed it to Fascist republic.
"Now about Pulwama, did anything you read in that Frontline report suggest that it was the handiwork of Modi govt and not JeM - a jihadi group that is trained, armed and directed by Pakistani intelligence services through Maulana Masood Azhar? "
You have accepted that you trained Muktis, so what is wrong when Pakistan trains and uses these?
G. Ali
Salam Sir
According to a Pakistani news source Marco Rubio who has been appointed as a US state senator by President Trump is going to visit Pakistan to discuss about the nuclear missile program of Pakistan and I think this decision was taken by President Trump who thought that it is better to discuss this issue with Pakistan before sanctions are imposed on the missile programs of Pakistan.
Sir is it possible that Pakistani Americans get in touch with Mr Rubio and try to discuss and convince him that the missile programs of Pakistan are actually Indian specific and India centric. They are not being developed with the intention or purpose to target any other country besides India?
G Ali,
"..as per your request I changed it to Fascist republic"
As I said above, the term "fascist" is being thrown around by every political party against their opponents these days so much that the term has lost its original objectivity and intent. Here in my own state, the Congress opposition routinely calls the rulling Communists as 'fascists'. In Pakistan, the PML-N and PPP called PTI 'fascist' when Imran Khan was the Prime Minister. Now its the other way round with Imran Khan calling the ruling PDM as 'fascist'. Plenty of democratically elected governments - be they left, right and centre - have been called 'fascist' by their opponents. The term doesn't signify anything much these days. Whether or not one agrees with Modi's or BJP's politics, his government is still a democratically elected setup.
"You have accepted that you trained Muktis, so what is wrong when Pakistan trains and uses these?"
Did I say anything about "right" and "wrong" in these comments? I only said that Modi would have needed a major provocation from Pakistan in the form of a high-profile militant attack as an excuse to strike at Pakistan. For Modi, Pulwama attack provided the justification for Balakot in 2019, like Pathankot and Uri attacks did for a supposed Indian cross-LoC "surgical strike" on militant launch pads in 2016 (though Pakistan denies that such an Indian operation ever happened). After Pulwama, there has been no major militant attack on Indian security forces in Kashmir for the past 5 years except for occassional gun battles, and Modi has had no more excuses to attempt any "surgical strikes" either. With the militancy appearing to be largely contained in Kashmir, Modi govt's priority at the moment appears to be development of strategic infrastructure in J&K and closer integration of the territory to India through all-weather road tunnels and rail link.
Also, I have already said that both India and Pakistan have long been using proxy groups against one another. The only questions are who has the most to lose in this game in the long term, and whether it makes better sense for both countries to stop this proxy war once and for all and agree to confine territorial disputes to diplomatic fist fights. I'm sure even Modi govt would be happy with that arrangement.
Ashok Swain:
Modi did everything to defeat Muizzu in the 2023 election in the Maldives by providing men & money but failed. Even RAW had a plan to remove President Muizzu after the election. The Washington Post reports Modi manipulating elections in foreign countries.
https://x.com/ashoswai/status/1873810065469432187?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
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A plot in paradise and India’s struggle for influence in Asia
Secret contacts between Indian agents and politicians in the Maldives over ousting its pro-China leader reflect the growing contest between Asia’s great powers.
By Gerry Shih and Siddharthya Roy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/30/maldives-president-muizzu-india-china-influence/
In January, after Muizzu had won and taken office, an adviser to the Muizzu family said, a senior RAW intelligence officer at New Delhi’s embassy in Washington explored a plan to overthrow the president with two Indian intermediaries who had political and business contacts in the Maldives. One intermediary was Shirish Thorat, a former Indian police officer who has worked as a private military contractor and who advised Mohamed Nasheed when he was the Maldivian president on how to curb Islamist radicalization. The other was Savio Rodrigues, a publisher based in the Indian state of Goa who previously served as a spokesman for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. The Muizzu family adviser provided The Post with surveillance records of phone calls and meetings held by the RAW official and Thorat, who now lives near Washington, but did not explain how the records were obtained. When contacted by The Post, Thorat and Rodrigues separately confirmed the existence of plans to remove Muizzu but declined to say whether they were working on the Indian government’s behalf. When asked about his meetings with an Indian intelligence officer, Thorat explained that he sometimes paid social visits to friends working at the embassy and said he was not surprised that he had been surveilled, “given my work.”
Salam Sir
I hope you and the team of this blog are doing well? Sir a bad news, small scale conflicts have started at the Pak-Afghan border between Pakistani border forces and Afghan army.
Few months ago Pakistani government had a meeting with Afghan government and in that meeting Pakistani officials told the Afghan government to not to give safe heaven to TTP terrorists and militants but Afghan government told Pakistani authorities that TTP are guests of Afghanistan and they have to keep them under protection.
Offcourse this was a serious blow for Pakistani government and this led to this conflict and border clashes between Pakistani security forces and Afghan army at the border and according to a Pakistani news source, these clashes between Pakistani forces and Afghan forces started after when the politician or official of Afghanistan met Indian high commissionar either in Kabul or Kandahar.
Derek Grossman
👀 "The Washington Post examined six cases in Pakistan through interviews with Pakistani and Indian officials, the militants’ allies and family members, and a review of police documents and other evidence collected by Pakistani investigators. They reveal the contours of an ambitious Indian assassination program with marked similarities to the operations in North America."
https://x.com/derekjgrossman/status/1874017951868932380?s=61&t=mgTxrmITUbpo9NntN5677Q
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campaign of covert killings
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has cast himself as more willing to take on India’s enemies beyond its borders than any other leader since independence.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/31/india-pakistan-targeted-killings-assassinations/
The murder-for-hire operations India used to target dissidents in the West were tested and refined in Pakistan, a Washington Post investigation found. The Post is investigating a global surge in campaigns of cross-border repression. The US and other Western governments have struggled to stem this phenomenon. As a result, sanctuary for those fleeing persecution is shrinking on nearly every continent.
The Washington Post examined six cases in Pakistan through interviews with Pakistani and Indian officials, the militants’ allies and family members, and a review of police documents and other evidence collected by Pakistani investigators. They reveal the contours of an ambitious Indian assassination program with marked similarities to the operations in North America.
In Pakistan, the killings were carried out by Pakistani petty criminals or Afghan hired guns, never Indian nationals, officials said. To aid deniability, RAW officers employed businessmen in Dubai, a regional commercial hub, as intermediaries and deployed separate, siloed teams to surveil targets, execute killings and funnel payments from dozens of informal, unregulated banking networks known as hawalas set up in multiple continents, according to Pakistani investigators. But the RAW also at times used sloppy tradecraft and poorly trained contractors, mirroring what was observed by U.S. and Canadian law enforcement.
The killings in Pakistan typically targeted the alleged leaders of two United Nations-designated terrorist groups — Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad — which have been accused by India of attacking Indian troops or, years ago, Indian citizens. The Sikh separatists who were targeted in Canada and the United States, Hardeep Singh Nijjar and Gurpatwant Pannun, were also designated as terrorists by India, although Western officials and analysts have disputed the persuasiveness of the Indian evidence against them.
Many details of the Indian operations in Pakistan have not been previously reported. Pakistani and Indian officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence activities and ongoing investigations.
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In 2014, the current Indian national security adviser, Ajit Doval, said it was unrealistic to invade Pakistan but that India should use covert means to punish Pakistan for backing militant groups that attack Indian troops and civilians. “We can defend ourselves by going to the place from where the offense is coming,” Doval told a university audience. “Pakistan’s vulnerability is many, many times higher than India’s.”
"2024 was deadliest year for Pakistan’s security forces"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1882160/2024-was-deadliest-year-for-pakistans-security-forces
ISLAMABAD: With at least 685 members of security forces losing their lives amid a total of 444 terror attacks, 2024 turned out to be the deadliest year for civil and military security forces of Pakistan in a decade.
Equally alarming were the cumulative losses of civilians and security personnel: 1,612 fatalities, accounting for over 63pc of the total recorded this year and marking 73pc more losses compared to 934 outlaws eliminated.
The overall fatalities recorded this year were a record 9-year high, and over 66pc more than 2023. On average, nearly seven lives were lost daily, with November emerging as the deadliest month, compared to all other months of the year.
The violence took the heaviest toll on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) which topped in human losses with 1616 fatalities, followed by Balochistan with 782 fatalities.
These are key findings of the Annual Security Report 2024 issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) think-tank.
According to a report of the think-tank, in 2024, the country suffered 2546 violence-linked fatalities and 2267 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws. This tally of casualties stemmed from 1166 terror attacks and counter-terror operations, marking a grim year for the country’s security landscape.
Compared to last year, these figures mark an over 66pc surge in violence (2546 vs 1533 fatalities), over 55pc more injuries (2267 vs 1462) and around 49pc more incidents (1166 vs 784).
KP and Balochistan accounted for 94pc of all fatalities and 89pc of all incidents across the country.
While KP suffered most of the fatalities (over 63pc) recorded this year, followed by Balochistan (31pc), the highest surge in violence, compared to last year, however, was recorded in the latter province (90pc), followed by the former (65pc).
The fatalities recorded this year mark a record 9-year high, exceeding the 2016 level (2432) and highest since 2015 (4366).
“Moreover, the data collected over the last 10 years shows a sharp downward trend from 2015 to 2020, with fatalities declining each year by around 33pc on average. This 6-year-long declining and in fact, an encouraging trend in Pakistan’s security landscape, was followed by resurgence in 2021. This is evident from the fact that violence in the country constantly surged by 38pc spike in 2021, 15pc in 2022, 56pc in 2023 and 66pc in 2024 (almost 44pc yearly surge in violence on average since 2021),” the report says.
The highest number of violence and counter-violence-linked fatalities were recorded in KP’s newly merged districts bordering Afghanistan such as Kurram, North Waziristan, Khyber; other districts in KP with significant fatalities included Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, and Lakki Marwat. These districts were followed by Balochistan’s Quetta, Kech, Kalat, and Musakhail districts.
Moreover, the fatalities in these most severely affected districts of Balochistan in 2024 alone were nearly equal to their combined total recorded over the previous three years (2021–2023), while a similar trend was observed in the hardest-hit districts of KP.
Salam Sir
Thanks for this post, Ajit Doval who is the security advisor to Indian government has even claimed that he secretly lived in Lahore for 7 years.
Salam Sir
Since 2007 till 2015 ,many terrorist attacks have happened in Pakistan and according to the surveys which your team posted some years ago, at least 80000 people have been killed in Pakistan from these terrorist attacks and many Pakistani soldiers also lost their lives fighting against these terrorists and militants.
Sir the question is that isn't Pakistani media and government aware of all this?
When Indian media and Indian government was blaming Pakistan for cross border terrorism, why we're most of the news channels and news anchors of Pakistan silent and on the defensive mode against these allegations raised by Indian government and Indian media?
Pakistan Begins 2-Year Term At UN Security Council, To Oppose Reform Sought By India
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-gets-un-security-council-seat-says-will-oppose-reform-sought-by-india-7379211
Pakistan will also preside over the UN Security council in July. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. It also secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating terrorists and imposing sanctions.
Pakistan today replaced Japan for a seat at the world's topmost diplomatic body - the UN Security Council. Islamabad will occupy one of the two seats from the Asia-Pacific region (South Korea being the other) for two years starting today.
Pakistan will also preside over the council in July when it will be the Chair. This will allow Islamabad to set the United Nations Security Council agenda. In addition to this, Islamabad finds itself holding another crucial post after it secured a seat on the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al Qaeda Sanctions Committee, which is responsible for designating individuals and groups as terrorists and imposing sanctions.
This new two-year tenure as a non-permanent member would be Pakistan's eighth term at the top UN body. It comes at a significant time, when central and west Asia is experiencing a political and humanitarian crises - the war in Gaza, crisis in Lebanon, heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, the regime change in Syria, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, to name a few.
Europe too is reeling under severe economic strain of the years-long Russia-Ukraine war. In East Asia, there are serious concerns over China's threat to Taiwan and North Korea's military rise while South Korea is imploding from one of its worst political crises. China also has serious differences with Philippines and Vietnam leading to naval face-offs.
Salam Sir
According to ABN news of Pakistan, recently the foreign minister of India Mr. Jai Shanker visited America and met their officials specially Mike Waltz who is a pro Indian already.
If we link this development with what Mr. Mushahid Hussain of Pakistan said about how India has tried to convince and persuade the government of America to put pressure on Pakistan so Pakistan could roll back it's nuclear program. Sir
don't you think that Mr. Jai Shanker must have addressed this same issue of Nuclear program of Pakistan with American officials specially with Mike Waltz and I think it is because of this that Mr. Trump who is about to take the position of President has told Marco Rubio to visit Pakistan and discuss this issue of missile program of Pakistan with Pakistani officials?
Explainer: Pakistan's military modernisation programme
By Indian Analyst Sidhant Sibal
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
From the Naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty.
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/explainer-pakistans-military-modernisation-programme-8592871
Pakistan's military remains a key component of the country's politics, but even as the economy remains fragile, one thing that is not halted is the country's military modernisation. From the naval domain to the air domain, a rapid programme of modernisation is taking place. Islamabad's natural raison d'être remains India, but also increasingly angry Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, who see Pakistan's air attacks as a violation of sovereignty. Let's understand what kind of modernisation Pakistan is undergoing and its impact on the country:
Naval Domain
Pakistan plans to transform its Navy into a 50-ship force by the next decade, including 20 major warships. This ambitious fleet expansion hinges on partnerships with China, Turkiye, and Romania. Pakistan has initiated the modernisation of its fleet with foreign shipbuilders like Damen Shipyards in Romania for offshore Patrol vessels. The navy is set to acquire advanced Hangor-class submarines from China, MILGEM-class corvettes from Turkiye, and the first-ever indigenous Jinnah-class frigates.
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Air Domain
As reported by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, Pakistan is reportedly planning to acquire 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighter jets, which marks a major step in its military aviation capabilities. J35 are fifth-generation stealth fighter jets developed by China's Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. These fighters are intended to replace Pakistan's ageing fleet of American F-16s and French Mirage fighters. While there's no official confirmation from China, the speculation around this deal has been significant.
China Partnership
Pakistan and China have close ties, something that is well known. While India and China ties have seen positive momentum, it does not mean Islamabad and Beijing will forgo military partnership or ties which are "higher than mountains and deeper than oceans". China has provided support for the modernisation of both the Pakistani Air Force and the Naval forces. As Admiral Tripathi noted at the presser, "These ships and submarines are either being made in China or being made with Chinese support." China has obvious interests in making the Pakistan Navy strong given its interest in Gwadar port. The port could connect the western part of China with the Indian Ocean overland Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Pakistan's defence diplomacy
Apart from modernisation, Pakistan has been actively involved in international naval exercises. In February this year, Pakistan will be hosting AMAN-25, the 9th such naval exercise off the coast of Karachi. In 2023, the exercises saw the participation of ships from China, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and the USA. The aim is to project Pakistan's naval strength in the Indian Ocean.
Missile programme and sanctions
Pakistan increasingly plans to modernise and reform its missile programme which has raised eyebrows not only in the region but also in Washington. The United States has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on entities involved in Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile programme, targeting both Pakistani and Chinese companies. The December 2024 sanctions regime included a Pakistan state-run enterprise, the National Development Complex (NDC) that saw a strong response from Islamabad, which defended its missile program.
Starlink registered with Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan: IT Minister - Profit by Pakistan Today
https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2025/01/07/starlink-registered-with-securities-and-exchange-commission-of-pakistan-it-minister/
Minister of State for Information Technology and Telecommunication Shaza Fatima Khawaja confirmed that Starlink, the satellite internet service owned by US billionaire Elon Musk, has been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP).
“The Space Board Authority is currently reviewing various technical aspects, and we have communicated updates to Starlink,” the minister stated while speaking to Geo.tv.
She added that the government is working on a regulatory framework to open low earth orbit (LEO) satellite services to all international companies.
The development follows Musk’s remarks on social media platform X, where he stated that Starlink is awaiting approval to begin operations in Pakistan.
Government officials disclosed that international consultants are assisting in formulating a comprehensive policy for regulating non-jurisdictional and non-stationary LEO satellites.
In a related development, Pakistan is set to benefit from the 2Africa Submarine Cable System, which aims to significantly enhance internet speed and reliability. Facilitated by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) through Transworld Associates as the landing party, the cable is part of a global initiative involving Meta and Vodafone.
The 45,000-kilometre cable, equipped with state-of-the-art SDM1 technology and a capacity of 180 Tbps, will connect 46 locations across Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. Installation began on December 1, 2024, at Hawksbay, Karachi, with deep-sea laying planned to start in April 2025.
Once operational in Q4 2025, the system will provide Pakistan with 24 terabytes of bandwidth, significantly improving the performance of platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram.
Currently, the country relies on approximately 8 terabytes of bandwidth from seven existing cables.
Pakistan, grappling with slow internet speeds and frequent disruptions, ranks 100th out of 111 countries in mobile internet speeds and 141st out of 158 countries in broadband speeds, according to Ookla’s Speedtest Global Index. Download speeds stand at 20.61Mbps for mobile internet and 15.60Mbps for broadband.
After ‘Stealth’ J-35A From China, Pakistan Discusses Acquiring 5th-Gen KAAN Fighters From Turkey: Reports
By Indian Analyst Sakshi Tiwari
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/after-stealth-j-35a-from-china-pakistan/
Pakistan’s appetite for a fifth-generation fighter jet appears to be expanding. Amid reports that the cash-strapped country has decided to purchase China’s newly unveiled J-35A aircraft, it is now reportedly holding discussions with Ankara for collaboration on Turkey’s fifth-generation combat jet, KAAN.
During the recently held eighth Pak-Turk Industrial Expo Joint Working Group meeting in Pakistan, the two sides discussed bilateral defense and industrial cooperation, including the possible export of Turkey’s KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet to the Pakistani Air Force (PAF). According to Turkish reports, the talks were attended by representatives of 32 institutions, including defense giants from both countries.
In addition to exploring the potential export of KAAN to Pakistan, both nations reportedly also discussed the design and co-development of an all-new helicopter.
Pakistan and Turkey are close allies. In 2021, the two states signed a formal agreement to boost defense cooperation by undertaking joint arms manufacturing and have since made concerted efforts to boost engagement and collaboration. The potential deal for KAAN is one of the components of this growing partnership, especially as Turkey seeks customers for its fifth-generation jet and Pakistan harbors ambitions to modernize its air force.
In July 2023, reports and social media posts from Pakistani military bloggers suggested that Pakistan was on the cusp of signing a contract to join the ‘KAAN’ stealth fighter jet project. No agreement to that end has been signed—yet.
The KAAN has come a long way since. Manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAÅž), KAAN made its first flight in February 2024, catapulting Turkey into the elite group of countries that have indigenously developed a fifth-generation aircraft.
Though envisioned as an air-superiority fighter, some experts believe that the KAAN has evolved into a multi-role fighter, more on the lines of the F-35. This also explains Pakistan’s sustained interest in the aircraft.
While the discussions on KAAN’s export continue to take place, there is a paucity of information about the nature of these talks and whether Islamabad would join the program as a co-developer or purchase the aircraft.
Why US sanctions against Pakistan’s ballistic missile program might backfire
By Syed Ali Zia Jaffery
https://thebulletin.org/2025/01/why-us-sanctions-against-pakistans-ballistic-missile-program-might-backfire/
Erosion of US sanctions’ coercive value. Pakistan will likely seek to evade US sanctions to enhance and diversify its missile forces, which are seen as necessary to deter external aggression from India. Pakistan’s bolstering of its missile force is aimed at plugging any gaps in its deterrence mosaic that India might exploit at all levels of conflict. Pakistan’s objective—formally known as “full-spectrum deterrence”—is to ensure that all Indian targets and territories are within reach of its missile force. Pakistan, therefore, will see US sanctions as a hurdle that must be leapt over.
Voices in support of this view will likely become louder in Pakistan as these new US sanctions against Islamabad are contrasted with Washington’s growing partnership with New Delhi.
In recent years, the United States and India have taken their defense and strategic partnerships to the next level, ostensibly to counter China. This partnership gave India greater access to advanced US defense technologies. The two countries have also expanded their cooperation in the space domain, which is concerning to Pakistan for two reasons: India has a history of using space-launch vehicles to augment its ballistic missile capabilities, and this collaboration will likely also accelerate India’s development of military capabilities in space. All this will not only increase Pakistan’s anxiety but might also push it to take measures to counter India’s militarization of space. For instance, it could compel Pakistan to develop large-diameter solid rocket motors that are important for space-launch vehicles.
Pakistan’s concerns vis-Ã -vis the US-Indian partnership will likely leave little room for Islamabad to accept US sanctions. The costs of scaling back its ballistic missile program would be too prohibitive, in Pakistan’s eyes, compared to those that these sanctions could generate.
Advancements in Pakistan’s India-specific ballistic missile program, despite sanctions, will add to the existing skepticism about the coercive value of such tools. Should Pakistan, which is not even a US adversary, successfully dodge sanctions, it will reinforce the idea that such measures might not work against other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, exactly at a time in which the United States would like to see its sanctions be effective. Because the United States appears insensitive to Pakistan’s security concerns, sanctions could backfire: Pakistan will likely circumvent them while telling the world that its nuclear and missile programs are non-negotiable.
Pakistan might get closer to China. Any US attempt to target Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missiles will contribute to alienating Pakistan from the United States, which might cause Islamabad to strengthen its relations with China in response. As Washington and New Delhi are committed to countering Beijing, Islamabad could argue that India gaining a strategic advantage over it will ultimately jeopardize China’s investments and interests in the region. This argument could resonate well with China, not least because of its growing stakes in Pakistan.
Another reason that Pakistan-China relations might further mesh is the confidence they have gained from their record of navigating US sanctions. Their cooperation in the field of missile development started in 1989, coinciding with the end of the halcyon days of Pakistan-United States relations. A year after Islamabad and Beijing signed a 10-year defense production contract, the United States imposed sanctions under the 1985 Pressler Amendment on Pakistan. These sanctions, however, did not stop China from transferring its M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan, even though the shipment of these short-range ballistic missiles later triggered two rounds of US sanctions on Chinese and Pakistani entities in 1991 and 1993.
"India has a history of using space-launch vehicles to augment its ballistic missile capabilities, and this collaboration will likely also accelerate India’s development of military capabilities in space."
India used the first stage of its SLV-3 rocket to develop the Agni missile in the remote past, but the rocket and missile programs of ISRO and DRDO have diverged considerably since then on account of the differing demands of a ballistic missile and an SLV. ISRO's rocket programs these days have concentrated on the development of engines and stages using more efficient cryogenic (hydrolox), kerolox and methalox propellants that can help it loft heavier payloads and are of little use in ballistic missiles. India's missile program is pretty independent of its space program currently. But Pakistan may have concerns about India using its rockets to deploy increasingly sophisticated military satellites though.
"Pakistan might get closer to China."
Pakistan always has the option to get "closer" to China, only that it fears the economic costs could turn out to be too prohibitive as it would attract the wrath of Americans. Pakistan may not have too much room to maneuver on this at present.
U.S. Says Pakistan Developing Long-Range Missiles | Arms Control Association
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/us-says-pakistan-developing-long-range-missiles
In a Dec. 19 speech sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association, Finer described Pakistan’s missile activity as an “emerging threat to the United States.”
In a Jan. 3 briefing for nongovernmental experts, senior U.S. officials, speaking anonymously, said that Pakistan’s capability to field long-range ballistic missiles is “several years to a decade” away and is part of an ongoing effort dating back several years to increase the range and throw-weight capabilities of the country’s ballistic missiles.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not confirm or deny that the country was developing long-range missiles in a statement issued Dec. 19. The statement said Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are “meant to defend its sovereignty and preserve peace and stability in South Asia.”
The senior U.S. officials also revealed at the Jan. 3 briefing that, to address U.S. concerns, Washington had proposed several “basic” confidence-building measures to Islamabad, including sharing telemetry information on Pakistani ballistic missile testing and setting limits on the outside ranges to which Pakistan would test its ballistic missiles. These ideas “were rejected” by Pakistani interlocutors, the U.S. officials said.
The day before Finer’s speech, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions on four entities under an executive order that allows the president to target proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. One of the entities, the National Development Complex, is “responsible for Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles,” according to the announcement. The three other entities were targeted for supplying the National Development Complex with equipment relevant to missile development. This is the first time that the United States has sanctioned a Pakistani state-owned entity involved in missile development, Finer said.
Earlier this year, the United States also announced sanctions against commercial entities in Belarus, China, and Pakistan that “have supplied missile-applicable items to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, including its long-range missile program.”
The foreign ministry statement said that the U.S. imposition of “sanctions defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries.” It accused the United States of engaging in “discriminatory practices” that undermine the nonproliferation regime.
Long-range ballistic missiles generally are defined as having a range greater than 3,500 kilometers and are used to deliver nuclear warheads. Pakistan’s longest-range missile system is the Shaheen-III, which was first tested in 2015 and has an estimated range of 2,750 kilometers.
India has flight tested the Agni-V long-range ballistic missile, which has a range of more than 5,200 kilometers, and is developing the longer-range Agni-VI, ostensibly to counter Chinese nuclear capabilities.
Pakistan’s decision to develop longer-range systems suggests that it may see an expanded role for its nuclear deterrent, which is largely focused on countering India’s nuclear and conventional weapons.
Pakistan’s existing tactical-, short-, and medium-range nuclear-capable ballistic missiles already allow it to strike targets in every corner of that country.
State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a Dec. 19 press briefing that Washington hopes to “engage constructively” with Islamabad on this issue but that it is long-standing U.S. policy to deny support for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program
Since Pakistan claims that its threat perceptions are India-centric, there are three plausible reasons I see for Pakistan to develop larger solid motors for missiles.
- It wants to develop larger MIRV/MaRV-capable missiles with greater throw-weight to overwhelm and defeat Indian ballistic missile defences.
- It is developing a ballistic missile submarine (nuclear-powered or conventional) as a response to India's nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) and needs longer range submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
- It has a program to build solid-fuelled SLVs to launch small military satellites.
Not directly related to missiles, but I came across a news report that Pakistan's space agency intends to launch an imaging satellite on a Chinese rocket on Jan 17. Other than the usual innocuous description of intended civilian uses (which can often be used by agencies to mask its potentially military uses), I couldn't find any further info regarding either the satellite or its payloads or capabilities. But since the satellite is supposed to carry a hi-res camera I guess its safe to suppose it would likely be dual-use atleast with both civilian and military applications.
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"Suparco to launch EO-1 satellite on Jan 17"
https://www.dawn.com/news/1884928/suparco-to-launch-eo-1-satellite-on-jan-17
The Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) announced the launch of the country’s Indigenous Electro-Optical (EO-1) satellite on January 17 from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre, China, APP reported.
The Indigenous Electro-Optical (EO-1) satellite is an advanced imaging satellite developed to capture high-resolution optical images of the Earth. Such satellites are typically used for a wide range of applications, including environmental monitoring, urban planning, agriculture, and defence and surveillance.
According to today’s announcement, the launch of the EO-1 mission “reflects Suparco’s dedication and expertise in advancing Pakistan’s technological capabilities in space science and innovation” marking a significant milestone in Pakistan’s space journey.
The indigenously developed satellite will enhance the country’s ability to monitor and manage natural resources, predict and respond to natural disasters, support food security, and drive economic growth through informed decision-making and sustainable development.
The EO-1 satellite offers substantial benefits across various sectors in Pakistan.
In agriculture, it will enable precision farming by monitoring crops, assessing irrigation needs, predicting yields, and supporting food security initiatives.
For urban development, the satellite will assist in tracking infrastructure growth, managing urban sprawl, and aiding city and regional planning efforts.
In environmental monitoring and disaster management, it will provide timely updates on floods, landslides, earthquakes, deforestation, and land erosion.
Additionally, it will support extraction and conservation strategies for natural resources, including monitoring of minerals, oil and gas fields, glacier recession, and water resources.
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While checking the list of upcoming orbital launches in Wiki, I saw an entry for a Long March-2D rocket launching from Jiuquan (JSLC) on Jan 17 carrying "Daqi Tance Yaogan" as payload. Perhaps the Pakistani satellite will be a co-passenger of "Daqi Tance Yaogan", or maybe EO-1 is a joint Sino-Pak satellite and "Daqi Tance Yaogan" is the Chinese name of it.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_in_January%E2%80%93June_2025
Daqi Tance Yaogan - CZ-2D - Jiuquan - January 17, 2025 (~04:08 UTC)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62180.0
Trump ally Gentry Beach speaking about Pakistan at Mar a Lago.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2JLx6u5/
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https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1272795-trump-ally-praises-pakistan-s-sacrifices-for-america-urges-close-ties
Video footage passed to Geo News shows Gentry Beach sharing with audience his recent visit to “amazing place called Pakistan”
LONDON: A Texas hedge fund manager and a business partner of the Trump family has praised Pakistan’s sacrifices in the war against terrorism, advising President-Elect Donald Trump to make Pak-American relations stronger than before.
Gentry Beach, who has been a close ally of the Trump family and involved in Trump’s two election contests, made these remarks at the Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast at Mar-a-Lago in the presence of leading Donald Trump aides, donors and supporters. Video footage passed to Geo News shows Gentry Beach sharing with the audience his recent visit to the “amazing place called Pakistan”.
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Gentry Beach said: “Joe Biden’s team told them they were worried they could put a missile in Washington DC. They looked at me and said ‘Do you believe this, we will never do any such thing to America’.”
To applause from the audience, Beach said: “Pakistan is the type of place we need to build a strong bridge to. We need to be working together and creating value for the whole world. It’s a perfect example of what has been wrong with the previous administration and how we need to fix it under the leadership of President Trump.”
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President-elect Trump, top Republicans, business leaders and his team members clapped when Gentry Beach made his powerful speech in defence of Pakistan. Beach says in the video: “This past week I had the benefit of visiting an amazing country Pakistan, a country I have never been to before. Let me tell you, this is a very pro-Trump environment, a very pro-family environment where people want to raise their kids and be good people.
“These people have sacrificed so much for America, they were literally on the front lines in that part of the world and have lost tens of thousands of people to terrorism, just like Israel does by living on the front lines every day. All they want is peace.” Beach said he gathered from his talks with the Pakistani leaders that they are very keen to work with America on equal terms as friends and partners, as close allies and as good friends. The businessman said that Pakistan was a misunderstood country and he condemned President Joe Biden’s administration for putting sanctions on a few Pakistani companies.
He said: “It’s a misunderstood place in the world and these are the types of things we need to fix. Unfortunately, the previous administration burnt every possible bridge they could. Unfortunately, recently they went as far as putting sanctions on someone who is our ally if you can believe that, someone who has stepped up and done good things for us.”
Gentry Beach said: “Joe Biden’s team told them they were worried they could put a missile in Washington DC. They looked at me and said ‘Do you believe this, we will never do any such thing to America’.”
To applause from the audience, Beach said: “Pakistan is the type of place we need to build a strong bridge to. We need to be working together and creating value for the whole world. It’s a perfect example of what has been wrong with the previous administration and how we need to fix it under the leadership of President Trump.”
Gentry Beach met Pakistan’s senior leadership and held extensive talks. Beach is known as a close friend, business partner and longtime hunting buddy of Donald Trump Jr. He helped raise millions of dollars for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and has had special access to top government officials and the Trumps. During his talks with the Pakistani leaders, Beach committed to bringing billions in foreign direct investment to Pakistan in strategic projects like rare earth minerals, oil and gas exploration, IT, education and infrastructure, the source said.
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