Sunday, October 1, 2017

Saran on India-Pakistan Ties; Gen Mattis in India; Tourism in Pakistan

What does former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran say about ties with Pakistan in his recent book "How India Sees the World: Kautilya to the 21st Century"? Why have "low-hanging fruit" issues between India and Pakistan like Siachin and Sir Creek not been resolved? Whose fault is it? Who in India torpedoed solutions agreed with Pakistan at the last minute? Why does ancient Indian thinker Kautilya, regarded as the Indian Machiavelli, dominate foreign policy thinking in India with regard to Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Why did US Defense Secretary General James Mattis go to India? What was his agenda relative to India's role in Afghanistan and cementing US-India defense ties? Why does Indian security analyst Prof Bharat Karnad say that India "severing relations with TTP will mean India surrendering an active card in Pakistan and a role in Afghanistan as TTP additionally provides access to certain Afghan Taliban factions"? Did Mattis ask India to stop supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist activities against Pakistan as Karnad anticipated?

Is the US Federal Government response to widespread destruction after Hurricane Maria in US territory of Puerto Rico adequate? Why is the mayor of San Juan so angry? Why is she being attacked by President Trump for demanding faster relief operations? Why did it take more than a week for the US to assign a military general to oversee disaster relief in Puerto Rico? Was President Trump too busy attacking the NFL players taking the knee during the playing of the US national anthem?

How is tourism industry doing in Pakistan? How has the improved security situation and better infrastructure positively impacted tourism in Pakistan? What are latest figures released by WTTC, the World Travel and Tourism Council, for Pakistan? How much does the industry contribute to Pakistan's GDP? What is its potential over the next decade? How does it help promote goodwill for Pakistan?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/nzNstymhlnM




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Kautilya Doctrine Dominates India's Pakistan Policy

India-Pakistan Tensions: Who's at Fault? 

Bharat Karnad on Indian Support of TTP Against Pakistan

Pakistan Travel and Tourism Boom

Trump's White House

Talk4Pak Youtube Channel

13 comments:

Singhasa said...

Kautilya or Vishnugupta is the correct meaning. You have desecrated the name which tells me it is doubtful you have read the entire book excepted for selected passages provided to you.

Riaz Haq said...

#Lahore based #Pakistani #American founder of #AI #unicorn Afiniti takes investors helicopter skiing in #Pakistan. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/tycoon-takes-investors-heli-skiing-to-show-them-pakistan-s-safe

AI firm Afiniti employs three-quarter of employees in Pakistan
Company may list next year with more than $2 billion valuation
In the northern snow-capped peaks of Pakistan, Zia Chishti disembarked off a helicopter and skied downhill on a mission to convince investors, clients and company executives that the nation once called by The Economist “the world’s most dangerous place” is now safe for business.

Chishti, who grew up in Lahore, gathered a group from more than a dozen countries including Alessandro Benetton, a heir to the billionaire family that owns the iconic namesake Italian clothing company, and Huawei Technologies Co. rotating Chief Executive Officer Guo Ping earlier this year to Pakistan, the back-end base for some of his businesses. Last month, his artificial intelligence company signed a deal with Huawei, which will help its push into Eastern markets including China, Japan and Australia.

For Chishti, ensuring his clients understand that Pakistan, which has struggled against internal militant groups, has changed since The Economist report a decade ago is critical because many of his employees who provide customer solutions, sales support and marketing to clients including Sprint Corp. and Caesars Entertainment Corp. are based in the South Asian nation. Chishti has added more people in Pakistan, a move that will also help him keep costs under control as his AI unit prepares for an initial public offering in the U.S.

“Pakistan by any reasonable and adaptive measure is an extremely safe place to do business,” said Chishti, whose office oversees the White House, said in an interview by phone. “All in all it’s a very favorable place to do business and the world perception just has to catch up.”

Despite a widespread negative perception over the country’s security record, multiple military operations have curbed domestic insurgents after a Pakistani Taliban massacre at a school three years ago shocked the nation. Last year, civilian deaths from terrorism dropped to the lowest in more than a decade.

The army’s drive has boosted the confidence of companies, including TRG, and foreign investment is up 155 percent to $457 million in the first two months of the business year started July. Chishti’s company has moved into a larger building this year that will fit 3,000 staff in the previously tumultuous port city of Karachi, which has been secured by paramilitary forces against gangsters, militants and political militias since 2013.

Amita said...

My father was in civil service mostly in Asia Pacific and he always had this in his study. We all had to memorize it and it has helped me in my life.


The root of happiness is Dharma (ethics, righteousness), the root of Dharma is Artha (economy, polity), the root of Artha is right governance, the root of right governance is victorious inner-restraint, the root of victorious inner-restraint is humility, the root of humility is serving the aged and the less privileged benevolently.

The above is also part of Arthashastra

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan draws new battle lines in the #Afghan war. #India #Trump #Taliban #Afghanistan

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/pakistan-draws-new-battle-line-afghan-war

If India increases its involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistan will strengthen its opposition to pushing the Taliban into negotiations.

Pakistan will continue supporting the Taliban to prevent an alliance between Afghanistan and India.

Islamabad and Washington's threats against one another will limit the punitive measures both sides impose.


...Pakistani militancy is as much a problem for Islamabad as it is for Washington. Pakistan has been working to circumscribe the militant groups operating within its borders since long before Trump rebuked the country in an address Aug. 21. In April 2016, for example, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency proposed plans to deradicalize scores of militants and bring them more under the control of the country's security apparatus. As part of that campaign, Islamabad allowed the Jamaat-ud-Dawa — a charity organization under U.N. sanctions for its links to the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba — to form a new political party, the Milli Muslim League (MML).

Combating militancy with politics is easier said than done, though. The process has been rife with controversy, exposing the historical divide between Pakistan's military and civilian leaders. Pakistan's Interior Ministry asked the country's electoral commission to block the MML's registration over concerns that the party's ties to and ideological affinities with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group blamed for the deadly attacks in Mumbai in 2008, would invite criticism from foreign governments. But though the MML's registration is still pending, it hasn't let administrative matters get in its way. The party's candidate, officially running as an independent, placed third in the recent special elections in Lahore, and the MML plans to participate in Pakistan's general elections next year as well.

The MML's emergence demonstrates the Pakistani army's commitment to addressing militancy in the country. Its priorities in this endeavor differ from those of the United States, however, and as it tackles the problem, Islamabad will continue to resist pressure to attack the militant groups Washington has targeted. In Pakistan's view, after all, all militant groups are not created equal. Groups such as the Afghan Taliban and its ally the Haqqani network help Pakistan's army advance its objectives in Afghanistan. They are assets to Islamabad's foreign policy, and the Pakistani government treats them as such. Islamabad's accommodations, moreover, discourage these groups from attacking Pakistan, enabling the country to focus its scarce resources on the organizations that pose a more serious threat to its security, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State's Khorasan chapter.

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In fact, Pakistan already has started employing some of these deterrents since Trump made his address on Afghanistan in late August. Islamabad turned down a visit from the U.S. acting assistant secretary of state for Central and South Asia, who was leading a delegation of officials eager to hash out U.S.-Pakistan coordination in Afghanistan. Pakistan's foreign minister instead embarked on a three-nation tour to China, Turkey and Iran in hopes of increasing their diplomatic support for his country. He later delayed a meeting originally scheduled for August with his U.S. counterpart, Rex Tillerson, until the week of Oct. 2. More recently, Pakistan announced that it would adopt stricter protocols on U.S. diplomats to require a mutual agreement before American officials could visit the country and to prohibit lower-ranking U.S. functionaries from meeting with high-level Pakistani officials, such as the prime minister. The country also has floated the possibility of shutting down NATO supply routes, though it probably won't follow through on the threat unless Washington first makes good on one of its own.

Shelly Ramos said...

Why does Pakistan build it's narrative on small fragments extracted from diplomatic dialogue and discussion while missing out on the larger picture?

When Pakistan delegation visited the US and the Foreign Minister and the Prime Minister appeared on think tanks, that was one of the inside discussion points among junior staff people.

Can you please shed your thoughts on it? Thanks

Riaz Haq said...

SR: "Why does Pakistan build it's narrative on small fragments extracted from diplomatic dialogue and discussion while missing out on the larger picture?"


To the contrary, Pakistan's narrative is far more comprehensive and based on well documented history and current realities.

The "terrorism" in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the legacy of the Cold War in which US funded, armed and trained the "Mujahideen" to defeat the Soviet Union. And India is now using the TTP to sponsor terror in Pakistan.

The Haqqanis were America's darlings and called "Mujahideen". Now the US calls them "terrorists" because they fighting US occupation.

Indians love Bhagat Singh and celebrate him as "shaheed" because he fought the British colonizers. Now they call Burhan Wani a terrorist because he fought Indian occupation forces in Kashmir.

Nitin B said...

With due respect sir, Burhan Wani was a commander of Hizbul Mujahideen, a UN designated terrorist organization!

Riaz Haq said...

NBRX: "With due respect sir, Burhan Wani was a commander of Hizbul Mujahideen, a UN designated terrorist organization! "

Wrong. UN has not designated HuM terrorist. US has.

US also designated South African leader Nelson Mandela as a terrorist. He remained on the list until 2008.

US is not UN.

Nitin B said...

Mandela's terrorist designation was a big error and recognized as such by the US.

“He (Mandela) had no place on our government’s terror watch list, and I’m pleased to see this bill finally become law,” said Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister on Relations with the U.S. at the Institute of Peace in Washington, D.C.

https://youtu.be/qyZ004QI6Iw

Some of the key points:

US funded, armed and trained militants to fight the Soviets in 1980s as part of the Cold War, then walked away without helping to rehabilitate them and left it to Pakistan to deal with them.

Pakistan does want to deal with these militants who are a liability for the country. Pakistan working on finding the best way to do it.

US domestic prevents action on guns but Washington expects Pakistan to demolish all militant groups overnight?

India has 66 banned armed groups engaged in insurgency all over India. Only 4 linked to Pakistan.

Indian govt data shows over 36,000 infiltration attempts in 2001 and only 30 this year.

Ex US Def Sec Hagel said India uses Afghanistan as 2nd front against Pakistan.

Gen Petraeus has said that while he served as Centcom commander and then CIA chief, he saw no convincing evidence of Pakistan's support for Haqqanis.

Pakistan rejects Mattis' statement about working with Pakistan "one more time". Such talk is offensive to Pakistan and not conducive to cooperation with US.

Indian Air Force has said IAF can do "surgical strikes" against Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. If that were to happen, don't expect any restraint from Pakistan.

https://youtu.be/OsGy4NDEXMg

Riaz Haq said...

#US-#India interests differ. #Modi should worry India has world's largest population of ill-educated, unskilled, unemployable youth with health & socio-economic indices worse than world’s poorest states', & second-rate military dependent on imported arms. https://bharatkarnad.com/2019/06/24/modi-needs-to-realise-whats-good-for-the-us-is-not-good-for-india/

With both the prime minister and his new external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, tilting towards the United States, India’s status and stature in the world is all set to decline.

By Bharat Karnad


some of these tactical moves are beginning to tax the patience and goodwill of India’s more steadfast friends, and there’s bound to be adverse reaction. India’s growing military closeness to the US and its seeming compliance with Washington’s demand that it cut its reliance on Russian arms has already stirred Russian President Vladimir Putin, called the “apostle of payback” by former US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and ambassador to Moscow, into selling Kamov utility helicopters to Pakistan as a warning to Delhi. More lethal and technologically sophisticated military hardware at “friendship prices” could be headed Islamabad’s way in the future. Should Moscow get really punitive, India would face the nightmare of a Russia-China-Pakistan nexus.
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India has spent trillions of rupees since 1947 on education, social welfare programmes and defence. But, 70-odd years later, the country has the largest population in the world of ill-educated, unskilled, unemployable youth, certain health and socio-economic indices that are worse than those of some of the world’s poorest states, and a showy but short-legged and second-rate military dependent on imported armaments.

Yet look at India in macro terms using the somewhat dubious ‘purchasing power parity’ concept and it gets rated as a trillion-dollar economy. What explains this anomaly?

Tufts University political scientist Michael Beckley’s pioneering theory of international relations suggests that gross measures – such as population, GDP, defence budgets, size of armed forces, etc. – are less accurate in assessing the power of nations than “net” factors, such as how effectively national resources are converted into measurable and decisive political, economic and military capability and diplomatic leverage and clout.

In other words, it’s the outcomes that matter. By this standard, the more advanced countries of the West seem to be more efficient converters of their human and material resources into usable policy assets relative to India and other middling powers, or even China, which in this respect falls somewhere in between these two sets of states.

So analysing the outcomes of Narendra Modi’s foreign policy – which is a continuation of the Indian government’s approach and policy from the days of P.V. Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh – and of S. Jaishankar’s central role in crafting several crucial agreements in service of this policy, may be a good way of judging its success.

The distinctive feature of India’s external relations in the new century is the pronounced tilt towards the United States. Narasimha Rao worked to obtain a rapprochement in the 1990s, and Vajpayee agreed on the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP). This culminated in 2008 with the civil nuclear cooperation deal with the US and, during Modi’s first term, in India signing two of the three “foundational accords” proposed by Washington – the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). The third, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for sharing geo-spatial information, is awaiting signature.

Riaz Haq said...

Civil nuclear energy: Kasuri says China agreed to sign accord with Pakistan way back in 2003

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1051609-civil-nuclear-energy-kasuri-says-china-agreed-to-sign-accord-with-pakistan-way-back-in-2003

The former foreign minister, who served the country from November 2002 to Nov 2007, also disclosed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had asked Pakistan to continue the dialogue for Kashmir dispute’s resolution under the famous four-point formula that was mooted in his tenure as foreign minister.

He expressed his happiness at the fact that the recent book, ‘In Pursuit of Peace’ by former Indian ambassador to Pakistan and negotiator for backchannel talks during PM Manmohan Singh’s tenure Ambassador S K Lambah, had comprehensively confirmed that what Mian Kasuri had said in his book ‘Neither a Hawk nor a Dove’ published much earlier that Pakistan and India had agreed to resolve all the outstanding issues, including Jammu and Kashmir.

Kasuri expressed his pleasant surprise at Lambah’s revelation that Modi asked him to continue the dialogue in 2014 on the same four-point formula. The former foreign minister said that he was aware that because of the negativity engendered by Hindutva supporters under the Modi government, the relationship between the two countries had become exceedingly tense.

PM Modi, Kasuri said, cannot rule India forever. Even at the best of times, he was able to secure about 37% of the total votes with an overwhelming majority voting for parties who are, by and large, opposed to the current policies of the BJP government on Muslims, Kashmir and Pakistan.

“There was no guarantee that Modi would not change his extremist policies, either before or after elections. After all, Modi had paid a surprise visit to Lahore in December 2015 to meet former PM Nawaz Sharif,” Mian Kasuri said.

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Mian Khurshid Kasuri went on to describe the success of the government at that time in establishing close relationship with the US and China, at the same time. A broad-based Strategic Partnership Agreement with the United States was formalised, which aimed to promote cooperation in different fields, including economic development, science and technology, education, energy, agriculture, and a regular strategic dialogue.

Pakistan had the largest Fulbright program for sending students to the US. Additionally, he said that the US agreed to not only sell new F-16s, which it had denied to Pakistan for long, but also agreed to upgrade Pakistan’s fleet of F-16s.

In defence matters, cooperation between Pakistan and China has been comprehensive and it involved joint production of advanced weapon systems, including modern and sophisticated JF-17 aircraft, Al-Khalid main battle tanks and F-22P frigates for the navy. Pakistan paid special attention to its relationship with Muslim states and exceptionally close relationships were forged with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE and Iran.

Despite difficulties, there were many high-level visits to and from Afghanistan and trade increased from a mere US$23 million to over US$1.2 billion.

Khurshid Kasuri said that Pakistan forged very close relationships with Britain, France and Germany and despite the fact that Pakistan was a close ally of the US, it vigorously opposed the United States’ proposed attack on Iraq and closely cooperated in this connection with the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Russia.

As a result, the US was unable to get the support of the UN and consequently decided to attack Iraq anyway with the support of the Coalition of the Willing with disastrous consequences for both Iraq and the US.

Mian Kasuri emphasized the need to redress some of Pakistan’s weaknesses, particularly to ensure that there was continuation of policies to ensure economic development. There was also a need for basic agreement between major stakeholders, so that these policies could continue despite change in governments. This could not take place with so much internal disunity.

Riaz Haq said...

Army’s Project Udbhav to rediscover ‘Indic heritage of statecraft’ from ancient texts - The Hindu


Project Udbhav to integrate age-old wisdom with modern military pedagogy, the Army says; focus on indigenous military systems, historical and regional texts and kingdoms, thematic and Kautilya studies

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-project-to-rediscover-indic-heritage-of-statecraft-from-ancient-texts-develop-indigenous-strategic-vocabulary/article67365776.ece

The Indian Army has started an initiative, named Project Udbhav, to rediscover the “profound Indic heritage of statecraft and strategic thoughts” derived from ancient Indian texts of “statecraft, warcraft, diplomacy and grand strategy” in collaboration with the United Service Institution of India, a defence think-tank.

In connection with this, USI will conduct a Military Heritage Festival on October 21 and 22, to acquaint “future thought leaders with the dynamics of comprehensive national security with special emphasis on India’s strategic culture, military heritage, education, modernisation of security forces and Atmanirbhar Bharat,” according to an Army statement.

Bridging past and present
“The project endeavours to explore India’s rich historical narratives in the realms of statecraft and strategic thoughts. It focuses on a broad spectrum including indigenous military systems, historical texts, regional texts and kingdoms, thematic studies, and intricate Kautilya Studies,” the statement said. As part of this process, a panel on September 29 discussed the “evolution of Indian military systems, war fighting and strategic thought”, exploring both current research in the field and the way forward.



The initiative stands testimony to the Army’s recognition of India’s age-old wisdom in statecraft, strategy, diplomacy, and warfare, the statement said, adding that Project Udbhav seeks to bridge the historical and the contemporary. “The goal is to understand the profound depths of indigenous military systems, their evolution, strategies that have been passed down through the ages, and the strategic thought processes that have governed the land for millennia,” it said.

Indigenous vocabulary
The aim of Project Udbhav is not limited to just rediscovering these narratives, but also to develop an “indigenous strategic vocabulary”, which is deeply rooted in India’s “multifaceted philosophical and cultural tapestry”. The overall aim is to integrate age-old wisdom with modern military pedagogy, it stated.

A study to compile Indian stratagems based on ancient texts has been ongoing since 2021, and a book has been released listing 75 aphorisms selected from ancient texts. “The first scholarly outcome of the initiative is the 2022 publication titled, Paramparik Bhartiya Darshan…Ranniti aur Netriyta ke Shashwat Niyam, meant to be read by all ranks of the Indian Army. English translation of the title being Traditional Indian Philosophy…Eternal Rules of Warfare and Leadership,” the Army said.

The September 29 panel discussion included a dialogue on the study of ancient texts from the 4th century BCE to the 8th century CE, with a focus on Kautilya, Kamandaka, and the Kural. By reintroducing these classical teachings into contemporary military and strategic domains, the Army aims to nurture its officers to apply ancient wisdom in modern scenarios and also allow a more profound understanding of international relations and foreign cultures, the statement added.