Friday, September 29, 2017

Pakistan Among Fastest Growing LNG Markets in the World

Pakistan joined the list of LNG importers last year and promptly became one of the world's fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The South Asian nation has suffered a crippling energy shortage as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Market Forecast. Source: Platts

Global LNG Market:

Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan together imported 13.9 million tons of LNG, more than the combined increase of 11.9 million tons by the most populous nations of China and India.

The biggest increase in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Qatar remained the world’s largest LNG exporting country, accounting for around 30% of global trade of 258 MT by exporting 77.2 MT, according to International Gas Union report 2017.

LNG Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan has been a big consumer of natural gas since the discovery of Sui gas fields in Balochistan in 1952. Sui now accounts for just 6% of natural gas domestically produced in Pakistan. The rest of the 94% comes from gas fields in other parts of Pakistan. Among the various provinces, Sindh is now the biggest producer of natural gas. Demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

Pakistan is currently importing 2 million MT (96 billion cubic feet) of LNG and negotiating to secure an additional 3 million MT in long-term contracts by the end of 2017 to supply its new LNG floating terminal due to arrive by December, according to M. Adnan Gilani, chief operating officer with Pakistan LNG Ltd, as reported by Platts.

New supply agreements will increase Pakistan's total LNG contracts total to more than 11 million MT per year, as the country aims to resolve a decade-long energy crisis, driven by growing gas consumption and falling domestic production.

In addition to government-to-government contracts, there are also private and public companies negotiating deals to import LNG. For example, Karachi-based power generator K-Electric is seeking supply for its 900-megawatt, $1-billion Port Qasim Power Station which will start-up in two phases, in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to Reuters news agency.

In the longer term, Pakistan aims to allocate a quarter of its LNG purchases to the spot and short-term markets, Pakistan LNG Ltd's Adnan Gilani told Platts. "Initially, our goal is to solve our energy crisis. We have long-term downstream commitments, so we do not mind going to mid-to-long term initially," he said. "Over the course of time, we will be able to cater to our variable non-cyclical demand... and allocate about a quarter of our portfolio to spot and short term. PLL is currently purchasing four cargoes per month on a short-term basis as it awaits the start of new term volumes.

By 2022, Pakistan expects to import 30 million MT (1,440 billion cubic feet) of LNG, according to Adnan Gilani of PLL.

LNG Infrastructure:

There is one LNG terminal currently operational at Port Qasim and 5 more are planned in Pakistan over the next two years to deal with rising volume of LNG imports. New pipelines are planned by South Sui Gas and Northern Sui Gas companies to transmit regasified LNG to various parts of the country to meet demand.

Summary:

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

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5 comments:

Moh said...

Pakistan's LNG demand expected to reach 30 mil mt/year by 2022: PLL
Singapore (Platts)--16 Feb 2017 1025 pm EST/325 GMT

Pakistan plans to ambitiously grow its LNG imports over the next few years, Adnan Gilani, the chief operating office of Pakistan LNG Ltd. (PLL), re-affirmed at the LNG Supplies for Asian Market (LNGA) conference in Singapore this week.

PLL expects Pakistan's 3.5 million mt/year (465 MMcf/d of gas equivalent) of LNG imports in 2016 to rise dramatically to 20 million mt/year in 2018 and 30 million mt/year by 2022, Gilani said.

He added that the country views LNG as a short-to-medium term solution for meeting a projected gas shortfall of 2-4 Bcf/d, depending on assumption scenarios used.

The country's gas shortfall recently culminated in a gas crisis in 2015, resulting in under-utilized gas-fired power plants, compensated for by expensive oil imports for power, and the country's fertilizer and textile sectors suffering shutdowns, Gilani said.

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/singapore/pakistans-lng-demand-expected-to-reach-30-mil-27771003

NBRX said...

Of course, Pakistan is a new entrant. This is a play on statistics. Going from 1 to 2 is 100% increase but going from 50 to 75 is only 50% - but it has increased in VOLUME by 25 compared to just 1.

Riaz Haq said...

Siemens has received an order from Pakistan for a complete power island for the new combined cycle Punjab Power Plant Jhang. The order was placed by the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC). As EPC contractor the Chinese company is building the project for the independent energy provider Punjab Thermal Power (Pvt) Ltd (PTPL). The liquefied natural gas (LNG)-operated plant is being built 250 kilometers southwest of Lahore and will provide a power generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts.

The power island from Siemens includes two SGT5-8000H gas turbines, one SST-5000 steam turbine, two heat recovery steam generators as well as control and auxiliary systems. Siemens will also be responsible for engineering and project management as well as for the associated on-site services. The power plant will initially feed electricity in simple-cycle operation in December 2018. It will then take up combined cycle operation in November 2019. The order for Siemens is valued at approximately 200 million euros.

The H-class has been successfully proven in operation, and Siemens has sold 84 of these machines to date. With 47 turbines in commercial operation, the H-class has now completed approximately 500,000 operating hours with an average reliability of approximately 99 percent.

http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/10/siemens-receives-power-plant-order-from-pakistan.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan discovers its largest #oil and #gas reserves in #Punjab near Attock. #energy

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/234489-POL-discovers-largest-reserves-of-oil-and-gas

Pakistan Oil fields Limited (POL) had discovered one of the largest oil and gas reserves from its Jhandial well (Punjab) in the last five years.

Jhandial well is located in Ikhlas Block in Northern Potwar, about 83 kilometers Southwest of Islamabad in District Attock, said an official.

POL holds 80% share in the block whereas The Attock Oil Company (AOC) has a 20% share.

The block is located in a prospective but geologically complex area surrounded by a number of significant oil discoveries.

The drilling of the deep exploratory well Jhandial-1 was proposed after acquisition and interpretation of recently acquired 3D seismic data.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 18,497 feet to test the Eocene and Paleocene carbonate reservoirs.

During testing, significant amount of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) were encountered in the Sakessar, Nammal (Eocene) and Patala (Paleocene) formations with flow rates of 21 million cubic feet of gas and 2,520 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 40/64"at well head flowing pressure of 3,768 psi, 19 million cubic feet of gas and 2,160 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 32/64"at well head flowing pressure of 5,364 psi and 16.5million cubic feet of gas and 1,630 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 28/64"at well head flowing pressure of 6,290 psi.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity of the oil is around 40o and the gas has a rich calorific value of 1,161 British Thermal Units per standard cubic feet of gas.

The gas composition analysis indicates that it contains about 86% methane, 7.2% ethane and 2.9% propane. The LPG content of the gas is about 2.5 metric tons per million cubic feet of gas.

The well will be connected to the production line within two weeks and will gradually attain full potential.

Structurally, Jhandial is a thrusted anticline just north of the Dhurnal Oil field. It has a closed area of about 15 square kilometers in the most likely case, with a thick net reservoir column from top of the Chorgali Formation (Eocene) to the base of the Paleocene Formation.

Preliminary initial estimated recoverable reserves of the field are in the range of at least 292 billion standard cubic feet of gas and 23 million barrels of oil.

The Jhandial discovery is expected to contribute to the country's energy sustainability while also having a positive impact on the future of exploratory efforts in the block and surrounding areas.

Riaz Haq said...

#LNG revolutionizing #Pakistan’s #energy sector. #gas #CNG

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1526272/bridging-energy-shortfall-lng-revolutionising-pakistans-energy-sector/

If one looks at Pakistan’s print and electronic media, it would appear that nothing has gone right for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the country. However, the rest of the world has a completely different view of the matter.

They marvel as to how quickly the government of Pakistan was able to sign contracts at the most economical prices, build LNG terminals and other infrastructure, and actually begin using the gas to alleviate severe energy shortages.

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Already some results are becoming evident. The most obvious effect has been on the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) in automobiles. Almost 75% of around 3,200 CNG pumping stations operating in 2012 have restarted their operations, according to the All Pakistan Compressed Natural Gas Association.

Pakistan was amongst the top CNG-user countries with 3.7 million CNG-run vehicles before 2012. Since LNG is at least 30% more economical to use, its availability to automobiles will result in considerable savings for consumers as well as the government. The other advantage is that CNG is a cleaner fuel.

It is not just transport and power sectors that are the major beneficiaries, other sectors benefit as well. Gas is used as raw material in the manufacture of fertilisers and this year Pakistan has become a net exporter rather than an importer of the commodity.

It is time other sectors such as Railways start planning to switch from diesel-run locomotives to LNG. This would save 40-60% of fuel cost.

Our obsolete furnace-oil based power plants should be replaced by more energy-efficient LNG-based plants as is already being done in India. This is expected to save $1.5-2 billion in foreign exchange annually.

With the availability of cheaper fuel, Pakistan’s competitiveness will increase, resulting in revival of exports and the overall economy.

With the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) early harvest projects, and no energy worries, the incoming government in 2018 would inherit a Pakistan different than what it was only four years ago.