Friday, September 29, 2017

Pakistan Among Fastest Growing LNG Markets in the World

Pakistan joined the list of LNG importers last year and promptly became one of the world's fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The South Asian nation has suffered a crippling energy shortage as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Market Forecast. Source: Platts

Global LNG Market:

Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan together imported 13.9 million tons of LNG, more than the combined increase of 11.9 million tons by the most populous nations of China and India.

The biggest increase in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Qatar remained the world’s largest LNG exporting country, accounting for around 30% of global trade of 258 MT by exporting 77.2 MT, according to International Gas Union report 2017.

LNG Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan has been a big consumer of natural gas since the discovery of Sui gas fields in Balochistan in 1952. Sui now accounts for just 6% of natural gas domestically produced in Pakistan. The rest of the 94% comes from gas fields in other parts of Pakistan. Among the various provinces, Sindh is now the biggest producer of natural gas. Demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

Pakistan is currently importing 2 million MT (96 billion cubic feet) of LNG and negotiating to secure an additional 3 million MT in long-term contracts by the end of 2017 to supply its new LNG floating terminal due to arrive by December, according to M. Adnan Gilani, chief operating officer with Pakistan LNG Ltd, as reported by Platts.

New supply agreements will increase Pakistan's total LNG contracts total to more than 11 million MT per year, as the country aims to resolve a decade-long energy crisis, driven by growing gas consumption and falling domestic production.

In addition to government-to-government contracts, there are also private and public companies negotiating deals to import LNG. For example, Karachi-based power generator K-Electric is seeking supply for its 900-megawatt, $1-billion Port Qasim Power Station which will start-up in two phases, in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to Reuters news agency.

In the longer term, Pakistan aims to allocate a quarter of its LNG purchases to the spot and short-term markets, Pakistan LNG Ltd's Adnan Gilani told Platts. "Initially, our goal is to solve our energy crisis. We have long-term downstream commitments, so we do not mind going to mid-to-long term initially," he said. "Over the course of time, we will be able to cater to our variable non-cyclical demand... and allocate about a quarter of our portfolio to spot and short term. PLL is currently purchasing four cargoes per month on a short-term basis as it awaits the start of new term volumes.

By 2022, Pakistan expects to import 30 million MT (1,440 billion cubic feet) of LNG, according to Adnan Gilani of PLL.

LNG Infrastructure:

There is one LNG terminal currently operational at Port Qasim and 5 more are planned in Pakistan over the next two years to deal with rising volume of LNG imports. New pipelines are planned by South Sui Gas and Northern Sui Gas companies to transmit regasified LNG to various parts of the country to meet demand.

Summary:

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

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22 comments:

Moh said...

Pakistan's LNG demand expected to reach 30 mil mt/year by 2022: PLL
Singapore (Platts)--16 Feb 2017 1025 pm EST/325 GMT

Pakistan plans to ambitiously grow its LNG imports over the next few years, Adnan Gilani, the chief operating office of Pakistan LNG Ltd. (PLL), re-affirmed at the LNG Supplies for Asian Market (LNGA) conference in Singapore this week.

PLL expects Pakistan's 3.5 million mt/year (465 MMcf/d of gas equivalent) of LNG imports in 2016 to rise dramatically to 20 million mt/year in 2018 and 30 million mt/year by 2022, Gilani said.

He added that the country views LNG as a short-to-medium term solution for meeting a projected gas shortfall of 2-4 Bcf/d, depending on assumption scenarios used.

The country's gas shortfall recently culminated in a gas crisis in 2015, resulting in under-utilized gas-fired power plants, compensated for by expensive oil imports for power, and the country's fertilizer and textile sectors suffering shutdowns, Gilani said.

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/singapore/pakistans-lng-demand-expected-to-reach-30-mil-27771003

NBRX said...

Of course, Pakistan is a new entrant. This is a play on statistics. Going from 1 to 2 is 100% increase but going from 50 to 75 is only 50% - but it has increased in VOLUME by 25 compared to just 1.

Riaz Haq said...

Siemens has received an order from Pakistan for a complete power island for the new combined cycle Punjab Power Plant Jhang. The order was placed by the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC). As EPC contractor the Chinese company is building the project for the independent energy provider Punjab Thermal Power (Pvt) Ltd (PTPL). The liquefied natural gas (LNG)-operated plant is being built 250 kilometers southwest of Lahore and will provide a power generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts.

The power island from Siemens includes two SGT5-8000H gas turbines, one SST-5000 steam turbine, two heat recovery steam generators as well as control and auxiliary systems. Siemens will also be responsible for engineering and project management as well as for the associated on-site services. The power plant will initially feed electricity in simple-cycle operation in December 2018. It will then take up combined cycle operation in November 2019. The order for Siemens is valued at approximately 200 million euros.

The H-class has been successfully proven in operation, and Siemens has sold 84 of these machines to date. With 47 turbines in commercial operation, the H-class has now completed approximately 500,000 operating hours with an average reliability of approximately 99 percent.

http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/10/siemens-receives-power-plant-order-from-pakistan.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan discovers its largest #oil and #gas reserves in #Punjab near Attock. #energy

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/234489-POL-discovers-largest-reserves-of-oil-and-gas

Pakistan Oil fields Limited (POL) had discovered one of the largest oil and gas reserves from its Jhandial well (Punjab) in the last five years.

Jhandial well is located in Ikhlas Block in Northern Potwar, about 83 kilometers Southwest of Islamabad in District Attock, said an official.

POL holds 80% share in the block whereas The Attock Oil Company (AOC) has a 20% share.

The block is located in a prospective but geologically complex area surrounded by a number of significant oil discoveries.

The drilling of the deep exploratory well Jhandial-1 was proposed after acquisition and interpretation of recently acquired 3D seismic data.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 18,497 feet to test the Eocene and Paleocene carbonate reservoirs.

During testing, significant amount of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) were encountered in the Sakessar, Nammal (Eocene) and Patala (Paleocene) formations with flow rates of 21 million cubic feet of gas and 2,520 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 40/64"at well head flowing pressure of 3,768 psi, 19 million cubic feet of gas and 2,160 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 32/64"at well head flowing pressure of 5,364 psi and 16.5million cubic feet of gas and 1,630 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 28/64"at well head flowing pressure of 6,290 psi.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity of the oil is around 40o and the gas has a rich calorific value of 1,161 British Thermal Units per standard cubic feet of gas.

The gas composition analysis indicates that it contains about 86% methane, 7.2% ethane and 2.9% propane. The LPG content of the gas is about 2.5 metric tons per million cubic feet of gas.

The well will be connected to the production line within two weeks and will gradually attain full potential.

Structurally, Jhandial is a thrusted anticline just north of the Dhurnal Oil field. It has a closed area of about 15 square kilometers in the most likely case, with a thick net reservoir column from top of the Chorgali Formation (Eocene) to the base of the Paleocene Formation.

Preliminary initial estimated recoverable reserves of the field are in the range of at least 292 billion standard cubic feet of gas and 23 million barrels of oil.

The Jhandial discovery is expected to contribute to the country's energy sustainability while also having a positive impact on the future of exploratory efforts in the block and surrounding areas.

Riaz Haq said...

#LNG revolutionizing #Pakistan’s #energy sector. #gas #CNG

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1526272/bridging-energy-shortfall-lng-revolutionising-pakistans-energy-sector/

If one looks at Pakistan’s print and electronic media, it would appear that nothing has gone right for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the country. However, the rest of the world has a completely different view of the matter.

They marvel as to how quickly the government of Pakistan was able to sign contracts at the most economical prices, build LNG terminals and other infrastructure, and actually begin using the gas to alleviate severe energy shortages.

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Already some results are becoming evident. The most obvious effect has been on the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) in automobiles. Almost 75% of around 3,200 CNG pumping stations operating in 2012 have restarted their operations, according to the All Pakistan Compressed Natural Gas Association.

Pakistan was amongst the top CNG-user countries with 3.7 million CNG-run vehicles before 2012. Since LNG is at least 30% more economical to use, its availability to automobiles will result in considerable savings for consumers as well as the government. The other advantage is that CNG is a cleaner fuel.

It is not just transport and power sectors that are the major beneficiaries, other sectors benefit as well. Gas is used as raw material in the manufacture of fertilisers and this year Pakistan has become a net exporter rather than an importer of the commodity.

It is time other sectors such as Railways start planning to switch from diesel-run locomotives to LNG. This would save 40-60% of fuel cost.

Our obsolete furnace-oil based power plants should be replaced by more energy-efficient LNG-based plants as is already being done in India. This is expected to save $1.5-2 billion in foreign exchange annually.

With the availability of cheaper fuel, Pakistan’s competitiveness will increase, resulting in revival of exports and the overall economy.

With the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) early harvest projects, and no energy worries, the incoming government in 2018 would inherit a Pakistan different than what it was only four years ago.

Riaz Haq said...

Fleeing #India foreign institutional #investors heading straight to #Pakistan; heres why. #KSE100 http://ecoti.in/9McAza via @economictimes

After losing a quarter of its value in five months as the prime minister was ousted over corruption charges and the current-account deficit ballooned, Pakistan’s stock market is starting to look cheap to foreign funds.

The market is definitely oversold and it’s a good time to buy, said Mohammed Ali Hussain, a senior analyst in Dubai at Frontier Investment Management Partners Ltd. The shares have now fallen enough to compensate for the risk of a rupee devaluation and look attractive ..

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Beset by political turmoil and an increasingly precarious macroeconomic position, Pakistan has seen $402 million of stocks outflows this year even as the country was restored to emerging-market status by index provider MSCI Inc. But with an economy supported by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ One Belt One Road” infrastructure push and average valuations that have fallen to around half the level of Indian shares, sentiment is turning.


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61182075.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Riaz Haq said...

World Bank report: Hydro important part of private infrastructure development in Pakistan

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/10/world-bank-report-hydro-important-part-of-private-infrastructure-development-in-pakistan.html

A recent report on private investment in infrastructure development, released by the World Bank Group, offers some insights into hydro, including the fact that investments in two hydropower plants in Pakistan helped boost that country into the top five.
The January-June 2017 Private Participation in Infrastructure Half Year Update cites investments in hydropower in Pakistan worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion and says the country was a new entrant to the list of top five countries for private participation in infrastructure. Other countries in the top five are Indonesia, Jordan, Brazil and China.
In Pakistan, the US$1.9 billion investment is for the 870-MW Suki Kinari Hydropower Plant. Suki Kinara is on the Kunhar River in the Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is expected to be completed by 2021.
The US$1.7 billion investment is for the 720-MW Karot Hydropower Plant. The Karot project, on the Jhelum River east of Islamabad, is being developed under Pakistan’s Power Policy of 2002. The first units are expected to go on line in 2020.
A section of the report discusses the energy sector, which was “the most dominant sector for H1 [first half] 2017 investment, accounting for three-quarters of global investments.” The report indicates that, by capacity, hydro projects led the way with cumulative capacity of 1.9 GW.
Of all the private participation in the energy sector in the first half of 2017, 85% was in renewables, and 15% of that 83% was hydropower.


JANUARY – JUNE
2017
Private Participation
in Infrastructure (PPI)
HALF YEAR UPDATE

https://ppi.worldbank.org/~/media/GIAWB/PPI/Documents/Global-Notes/PPI2017_HalfYear_Update.pdf

Indonesia was the destination for the highest amount of PPI investment, while Pakistan and
Jordan were new entrants to the top five countries, joining Indonesia, Brazil, and China.
Indonesia, Pakistan, and Jordan are amongst the top five highest PPI-investment countries because
of a few multibillion-dollar power projects. Indonesia saw investments in US$ 4.2 billion and US$2.2
billion coal fired power plants, Jordan had a US$2.1 billion investment in an oil shale-fired power
plant, and Pakistan had investments in two hydropower plants worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion.


Riaz Haq said...

THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
LNG supply: Pakistan seeks further fee cut for North-South pipeline

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1539653/2-lng-supply-pakistan-seeks-fee-cut-north-south-pipeline/

Pakistan has asked Russia to make a further reduction in the tolling fee for pumping liquefied natural gas (LNG) through a planned $2 billion North-South pipeline that will bring energy for consumers in Punjab.

“Pakistan is seeking to further push down the fee to $0.78 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in talks with Russia,” a senior government official said while talking to The Express Tribune.

Earlier, Moscow had demanded $1.2 per mmbtu for gas transmission. However, a negotiating committee, set up with approval of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), later agreed on 85 cents per unit.

At present, the two sides are finalising terms and conditions of a commercial agreement to pave the way for execution of the project.

“Pakistan and Russia have discussed parallel ways of implementing the project amid fears of sanctions on the Russian companies nominated to execute the project,” the official said. “After the two sides sign the commercial agreement, groundbreaking of the project will take place.”

Riaz Haq said...

Exclusive-Exxon Exit Deals Blow to Pakistan Plans for LNG Imports

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/10/30/business/30reuters-pakistan-lng-exxon-mobil.html

Exxon Mobil has pulled out of a major project in Pakistan, in a potential blow to plans to boost imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after years of winter shortages.

Differences among the six-member group behind the project in Port Qasim in Karachi mean French oil major Total and Japan's Mitsubishi may also quit and join a rival scheme, government officials and industry sources told Reuters.

A senior Pakistani government official put the chances of success for the project, set to be Pakistan's third and biggest by import capacity, at 10-20 percent due to the disagreements.

A highly-developed pipeline grid, extensive industrial demand and the biggest natural gas-powered vehicle fleet in Asia after China and Iran make Pakistan an easy fit for LNG and official estimates show imports could jump fivefold to 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2022.

The new project would include a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), where LNG will be converted back into gas for feeding into the country's grid.

Qatar Petroleum [QATPE.UL], the world's biggest LNG producer, Turkish developer Global Energy Infrastructure Limited (GEIL) and Norway's Hoegh LNG, which will provide the FSRU, are the other partners.

While Exxon has pulled out, the U.S. company was now negotiating to join a separate project, Hasil Bizenjo, Pakistan's Maritime Affairs minister in charge of ports, said.

"They are thinking to build a new terminal in Port Qasim," Bizenjo told Reuters in the Pakistan capital Islamabad, adding that Mitsubishi and Total were also in talks about taking stakes in another consortium.

Exxon was pulling out because it had "issues with partners", particularly the developer, GEIL, one energy official said. Exxon's move leaves in doubt a multi-billion dollar deal Qatar has already struck with GEIL for the sale of up to 2.3 million tonnes of LNG annually over 20-years.

Exxon Mobil, Total and GEIL declined to comment, while a Mitsubishi spokesman said that the Japanese company has been continuing its talks with partners over the project.

Qatar Petroleum did not respond to requests for comment.

NEW INVESTORS?

LNG imports have transformed Pakistan's energy map since the country's first import facility was introduced in 2015.

If the second LNG terminal proceeds without glitches the South Asian nation will not suffer winter gas shortages for the first time in more than 10 years, energy officials say, in a likely boost for Prime Minister Shahid Abbasi's ruling party before the next general elections, due in mid-2018.

Government officials and industry sources said talks are underway to bring new players into the project, including Swiss trading house Vitol [VITOLV.UL], which declined to comment.

Rival traders Trafigura and Gunvor are already developing LNG projects in Pakistan, betting the country will account for a rising share of future profits and LNG trade.

Pakistan plans to add its second LNG import terminal by the end of this year, but private companies have proposed building six more largely around Port Qasim.

Riaz Haq said...

'Spectacular' drop in renewable energy costs leads to record global boost
Falling solar and wind prices have led to new power deals across the world despite investment in renewables falling

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/06/spectacular-drop-in-renewable-energy-costs-leads-to-record-global-boost

Renewable energy capacity around the world was boosted by a record amount in 2016 and delivered at a markedly lower cost, according to new global data – although the total financial investment in renewables actually fell.

The greater “bang-for-buck” resulted from plummeting prices for solar and wind power and led to new power deals in countries including Denmark, Egypt, India, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates all being priced well below fossil fuel or nuclear options.

Analysts warned that the US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, announced last week by Donald Trump, risked the US being left behind in the fast-moving transition to a low-carbon economy. But they also warned that the green transition was still not happening fast enough to avoid the worst impacts of global warming, especially in the transport and heating sectors.

The new renewable energy capacity installed worldwide in 2016 was 161GW, a 10% rise on 2015 and a new record, according to REN21, a network of public and private sector groups covering 155 nations and 96% of the world’s population.

The new record capacity cost $242bn, a 23% reduction in investment compared to 2015, and renewables investment remained larger than for all fossil fuels. Subsidies for green energy, however, are still much lower than those for coal, oil and gas.

New solar power provided the biggest boost – half of all new capacity – followed by wind power at a third and hydropower at 15%. It is the first year that the new solar capacity added has been greater than any other electricity-producing technology.

“A global energy transition [is] well under way, with record new additions of installed renewable energy capacity, rapidly falling costs and the decoupling of economic growth and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions for the third year running,” said Arthouros Zervos, chair of REN21.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan’s private sector to get new #LNG terminal

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/574696/Pakistan-s-private-sector-to-get-new-LNG-terminal

*
Pakistan’s domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.

A consortium comprising local and foreign business houses is poised to set up Pakistan’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal that would be dedicated to energy-starved private sector, industry officials said yesterday.
The officials said that the consortium consisting of Fatima Group, Shell Gas BV, Gunvor Group Ltd and Engro Elengy Terminal Ltd would set up the terminal with a capacity to regasify 600mn metric cubic feet per day in ‘near future’. It would enable private buyers to buy RLNG on competitive price.
At present, the two LNG terminals operated by Engro Elengy and Pakistan GasPort Consortium Ltd – with 1.2bn cubic feet per day capacity – are mainly catering to the need of RLNG-based power plants of the government.
The present domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.
The increasing trend in demand will continue to pose challenge despite initiative taken by the government that led to injecting of RLNG into domestic network in early 2015.
Official said the new consortium has shown commitment to start work on LNG terminal in view of the government’s encouraging policies.
“This initiative will boost imports of much-needed LNG for the energy-starved private sector,” an official said.
Officials said the new LNG partnership will help in further reinforcing energy security of the country by reducing demand supply gap with provision of one of the cheapest fuels on competitive terms.
An independent private LNG market will encourage competition as private buyers and sellers will truly create a viable energy market, they added. Gas shortages resulted in extreme stress to economy during the last decade. The industrial and commercial sectors have especially been bearing the brunt of chronic energy shortages.
The shortfall directly affected as many as 500,000 households, while it also caused shutdown of industries or slowdown in production, causing unemployment, according to an estimate. Particularly, export-oriented sectors are badly hurt by energy and power crisis that led to loss of export revenue.
More than 2,500 megawatts of power projects were brought online or switched from expensive liquid fuels with the injection of imported RLNG, while 750 plus compressed natural gas stations commenced operation in the Punjab alone, creating a new hope of survival for $4.5bn industry.
Furthermore, the revival of more than 500 industrial units mainly comprising of export-oriented textile could be made possible due to LNG supplies.
Similarly, the robust fertiliser industry that was plagued by non-availability of natural gas could only be revived after RLNG supplies. Consequently, the fertiliser industry has witnessed an increase of 1mn tonnes in production.
LNG is one of the most rapidly expanding energy commodities globally due to its obvious economic and environmental advantages. Global LNG trade reached an all-time high of 260mn tonnes in 2016.
The sector’s 10-year compound annual growth rate stands at 5%. The world’s regasification capacity stood at 820mn tonnes per annum last year.

Riaz Haq said...

CERC Sets ₹3.48/kWh as the National Average Power Purchase Cost for Open Access in India 

https://mercomindia.com/cerc-sets-%E2%82%B93-48kwh-national-average-power-purchase-cost-open-access/

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) has set the national average power purchase cost (APPC) at ₹3.48 (~$0.0542)/kWh, barring a few states for open access. According to CERC the APPC will apply during the financial year (FY) 2017-18 and until further orders for deviation settlement with respect to open access.

Regional entities selling open access (large power consumers of 1 MW or more purchasing power in the open market) wind or solar power under REC framework and captive power projects that do not have a power purchase agreement will use APPC for settlement.

The new national APPC is ₹0.08 (~$0.0013) higher than the national APPC for FY 2016-17, which was ₹3.40 (~$0.0529)/kWh. The updated APPC will not apply to the states of Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Delhi, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Assam, Kerala, and Rajasthan.

The total power purchase cost considered when computing the APPC excluded both transmission charges and the cost of generation or procurement from renewable energy sources. The national APPC for FY 2017-18 was determined by computing the average APPC for all states and union territories (UTs) weighted by the volume of the conventional power purchased by the respective state/UT.

In cases where multiple utilities operate in a single state, the state’s average power purchase cost was weighted by the total power for respective utilities to compute APPC for the entire state.

In its order, the CERC stated that since the state electricity regulatory commissions (SERCs) for a few states/UTs have not issued APPC orders or tariff orders in past financial years, the new APPC will not apply to those states.

Meanwhile, the APPC determined in FY 2014-15 will apply in Tamil Nadu and Tripura and the APPC determined in the FY 2015-16 tariff order will apply in Delhi and Jharkhand. The CERC added that the APPC applicable for Rajasthan distribution companies will be ₹3.4266 (~$0.0534)/kWh, in step with a new tariff order issued by the Rajasthan Electricity Regulatory Commission (RERC).

In the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Assam, and Kerala, the tariff order for FY 2016-17 will be applied as the APPC.

The CERC invited comments from stakeholders on the national APPC determination but received none.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia eyes opportunities for #energy cooperation with #Pakistan. #LNG #Pipeline

http://tass.com/economy/990860

Russia sees good opportunities for trade and economic cooperation with Pakistan, primarily in energy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, opening talks with his Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Tuesday.

"We have good opportunities in trade and economic cooperation, investment cooperation, most notably in energy, given that the significant part of this sector in your country was created with the assistance of our specialists," Lavrov said.

"One of priority areas of our cooperation is anti-terror fight," Lavrov said. "We expect to continue providing assistance in enhancing your country’s potential to fight terrorism," he stressed.

The Pakistani foreign minister said he saw opportunities for bilateral cooperation in military, technical and banking sectors. He congratulated Lavrov on the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Russia, voicing hope to step up cooperation.

Moscow and Islamabad will establish a commission on military cooperation, he said.

"A commission on military cooperation is being formed," Lavrov said. "We have confirmed Russia’s readiness to continue boosting Pakistan’s counterterrorism capacity, which is in the entire region’s interests," the Russian top diplomat added.

"Last year, we handed four Mil Mi-35M combat and cargo helicopters over to our partners," he went on to say. "I am sure that they have been in demand as far as counterterrorism operations go, as our colleagues told us today," the Russian foreign minister noted.

Russia and Pakistan will continue the practice of organizing Druzhba (Friendship) joint tactical drills. "We have decided to continue the practice of organization of joint tactical exercises Druzhba to drill skills of counter-terrorist organizations in mountainous conditions," he said. "Such drills were conducted last autumn in Russia’s Karachay-Cherkessia."



More:
http://tass.com/economy/990860

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistani Government seeks to reduce supplies as demand for LNG fades
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/pakistani-government-seeks-to-reduce-supplies-as-demand-for-lng-fades/

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As a consequence, the LNG throughput handled by PLL from Gasport Terminal would be reduced from 300 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 200mmcfd while PSO would reduce supply from Engro Elengy Terminal from 600mmcfd to 500mmcfd.

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All the three LNG projects were required to achieve commercial operation date (COD) on combined cycle by December 2017 under revised schedule instead of original schedule of June-August 2017, but are yet to reach that stage, he said. One of the plants may achieve COD on March 7, he added.

He said the LNG off-takers were either not ready or a few others had lower requirement for LNG while pipelines and storages were fully packed and hence the only option left was to reduce throughput from both terminals.

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The meeting was attended by Minister for Power Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari, Finance Adviser Miftah Ismail, Special Assistant to the PM Barrister Zafarullah Khan, federal secretaries senior officials of divisions concerned. The meeting was also “briefed on demand and supply situation and the power generation projections from March till October 2018”.

Interestingly, the LNG supply jack up was particularly based on power plants’ requirement. The Central Power Purchase Agency (CPPA) and National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) have been giving gas demand of up to 900mmcfd, but actual consumption in the sector has been less than 500mmcfd.

For February, the power sector has been committing LNG offtake of 700mmcfd, but the supply remained less than 400mmcfd and some quantities were diverted to the domestic sector besides the industry.

Under revised schedules, the Petroleum Ministry official said the two LNG projects of the federal government namely Haveli Bahadar Shah and Balloki and Qaid-i-Azam Power Plant (Bhikki plan) of Punjab government have confirmed combined cycle commissioning in early March (all three having 1,200MW).

The three plants were to get firm supply of RLNG from December/January for combined cycle testing but they have so far failed to scale up supplies due to repeated technical failures.

In fact, the three were to start single cycle operations over one year ago for which two LNG terminals were set up and LNG import arrangements were put in place at the expense of millions of dollars of the taxpayer money. The plants were to make ‘take or pay’ payments to LNG importers under back-to-back agreements in case of non-consumption of RLNG even in single cycle phase.

However, the stakeholders in the supply chain have refrained from ‘take or pay’ settlement under orders of the PM Office to spread the losses across the chain instead of cost build up in LNG power plants to avoid Nandipur Power project-like cost escalations. The cost, therefore, shift to PSO, LNG companies and Sui gas companies besides the consumer at large. LNG terminal operators like Elengy and Gasport are qualified to claim full payments that increases the processing cost because of lower utilisation factor.

Interestingly, chief executive of Qaid-i-Azam LNG project Ahad Cheema was picked up by National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in a different case when his first plant at Bhikki was in final stage of testing and he had been entrusted to undertake fourth LNG project of 1,200MW at Trimmu when it had become clear that enough generation capacity had been contracted.

In the meanwhile, a number of low-cost generation project based on coal and hydropower have come on line like coal-based project at Sahiwal contributing 1,300MW, Port Qasim coal plant 600MW and expected to go up to 1,300MW soon. Additional nuclear power capacity of around 800MW is likely to be commissioned this summer while Tarbela-4th extension will give enhanced supplies in summer, followed by Neelum-Jehulm.

Riaz Haq said...

Exxon Mobil Partnering With #Pakistan for Third #LNG Terminal. #energy

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/exxon-mobil-partnering-with-pakistan-for-its-third-lng-terminal


Exxon Mobil Corp. is working with a group of Pakistan’s large businesses on a proposal to build and supply the country’s third import terminal for liquefied natural gas, according to the nation’s minister for maritime affairs.

Exxon has partnered with Pakistani consortium Energas to develop the import terminal, the minister, Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo, said by phone Friday, without providing further details. An Exxon spokesman in Singapore wasn’t immediately able to comment.

According to a presentation the companies made to the country’s regulators Thursday, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg, the group plans to start building a $150 million offshore terminal at Port Qasim near Karachi in May, pending government approvals. Exxon and Qatar would supply LNG to the terminal, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2019, according to the presentation.

With a population of more than 200 million and an economy growing above 5 percent, Pakistan has the largest appetite for LNG among emerging markets, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The nation’s domestic gas production has remained stable for more than a decade despite growing demand.

The terminal will have throughput capacity of 750 million cubic feet a day of gas, or about 5.6 million tons a year of LNG, according to the presentation. Exxon and Energas already have customers for about 300 million cubic feet a day of gas including power plants, it said.

Energas is a consortium of large Pakistani businesses looking to secure long-term gas supply on preferential terms, including Yunus Brothers Group, which owns Lucky Cement Ltd., and Sapphire Group.

Riaz Haq said...

#LNG imports in #MiddleEast plummeting. 37% slump in 2018 & prolonged negative outlook is in contrast to region’s 2-year LNG #gas demand surge. Oil prices barely enough to balance the budget of #Gulf monarchies of #SaudiArabia, #UAE, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/the-middle-east-s-once-hot-lng-market-faces-a-decade-long-slump via @markets

The Middle East was a bright spot for global liquefied natural gas demand in 2015. Now imports have plummeted so much that it could take a decade to recover.

Last year’s 37 percent slump and the prolonged negative outlook is in contrast to the region’s two-year LNG demand surge that outpaced global growth, according to BloombergNEF and ship-broker Poten & Partners Inc. data. The Middle East is now expected to make up less than 4 percent of global imports for at least eight years.

There are only five importers -- Egypt, Kuwait, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Israel -- of LNG in the Middle East. Bahrain is expected to join the group this year.

Why are LNG imports falling?
Gas finds in Egypt and the U.A.E. reduced the need for the liquefied fuel, and Jordan increased cheaper pipeline imports. “Domestic gas resources have been the main reason for LNG imports being subdued,” said Fauziah Marzuki, a senior associate at BNEF. Locally produced “gas will always be preferred over imports, within certain cost parameters of course.”

Which countries are leading the decline?
Egypt, the region’s biggest LNG importer in 2016 and 2017, will halt purchases this year and may resume exports thanks to surging domestic supplies from the giant Zohr field. Jordan will rely more on pipeline imports from Egypt, trimming its need for LNG. Bahrain, the only country that will add import capabilities in 2019, isn’t expected to reach meaningful volumes until 2022, according to BNEF forecasts.

Fizzling Gas
Liquefied natural gas imports in the Middle East had a record drop in 2018

What does this mean for Qatari exports?
Qatar, the world’s biggest LNG exporter, has boosted its position in the Middle East’s shrinking market since 2016. The exit of Egypt from the scene will likely erode that status. Almost half of Egypt’s imports came from Qatar last year. Still, the region isn’t a major market for Qatar and growth in Asia will more than offset declines in the Middle East.

How will this impact global markets?
Imports of LNG in the Middle East are dwarfed by Asia. Supply of the fuel -- driven by the U.S., Qatar and Australia -- is expected to rise almost 18 percent by 2030, and demand will grow more than double that rate. Even Kuwait, the region’s biggest importer, barely registers in global terms. Its imports are even less than the smaller markets in Asia such as Thailand, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

LNG Minnow
Middle Eastern countries to comprise just 3 percent of global demand in 2019

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan #LNG #demand could triple over next 3-5 years Last year LNG imports were 7 tons of LNG. This year, that could grow to as high as 15 million tons and to up to 25 million to 30 million tons over the next 3 to 5 years. #energy #oil #gas #economy https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pakistan-lng-demand-could-triple-over-next-3-5-years/68281233

SINGAPORE: Pakistan's demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) could more than triple in the next three to five years, the chief executive of Pakistan LNG said on Wednesday.

Last year, Pakistan imported nearly 7 tonnes of LNG, data from Refinitiv Eikon shows. This year, that could grow to as high as 15 million tonnes and to up to 25 million to 30 million tonnes over the next three to five years, said Adnan Gilani, managing director and chief executive of Pakistan LNG.

Pakistan LNG is a state-owned company that buys LNG from the international market to supply to the domestic market.

Both of the country's existing LNG terminals are currently nearly fully utilised. Another two are expected to announce a final investment decision this year.

Pakistan's two import terminals have a regas capacity of 1.2 billion to 1.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day, or about 9 million to 10 million tonnes of LNG a year, according to Gilani's presentation at the LNGA 2019 conference in Singapore.

Pakistan is expected to negotiate a few more long-term contracts to import LNG into the country, Gilani said.

Pakistan is facing a serious energy crisis with repeated blackouts and gas supply outages that led to the sacking of the heads of two of its main gas distribution utilities in January.

Riaz Haq said...

#Qatar emerges as front-runner for long-term #LNG deal for #Pakistan, one of the world’s fastest growing LNG markets. Pakistan is seeking long-term supply contracts for second LNG terminal, which can receive 600 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. https://reut.rs/2IHTHzT

Qatar has emerged as the front-runner for a long-term gas supply deal to Pakistan, a senior Pakistani official said on Friday, with the cabinet of Prime Minister Imran Khan set to decide in the coming weeks on an agreement.

Pakistan, with 208 million people, is running out of domestic gas and has turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to alleviate chronic energy shortages that have hindered its economy and led to a decade of electricity blackouts.

Qatar is already Pakistan’s biggest gas supplier after signing a 15-year agreement to export up to 3.75 million tonnes of LNG a year to the South Asian country. That 2016 deal supplied Pakistan’s first LNG terminal.

Emerging as one of the world’s fastest growing LNG markets, Pakistan is looking to secure a long-term supply contracts for its second LNG terminal, which can receive 600 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of natural gas.

Pakistan has already signed a five-year import deal with commodity trader Gunvor and a 15-year agreement with Italy’s Eni, but is seeking long-term agreements for about 400 mmcfd.

Pakistan has been negotiating with eight countries with whom it has signed inter-governmental agreements in recent years, including Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Italy, Oman, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. A Saudi Arabian delegation representing state-owned Saudi Aramco has also shown interest in a gas deal.

The senior Pakistani official told Reuters that state-run Qatargas put forward the lowest bid for a long-term LNG supply contract that would have a price review after five or 10 years.

“Qatar has offered the lowest price,” said the official, declining to say the amount of LNG or the price offered by Qatar.

Pakistan’s cabinet is in the next week or two expected to decide if it will proceed with a government-to-government deal, when it will also decide on the size, he said.

Cash-strapped Pakistan is most likely to go with the cheapest supplier, in this case Qatar, officials have said. However, the government may choose more expensive rates to bolster its relations with a chosen country.

Khan’s cabinet could also choose to put out an open tender for long-term agreements, said the senior official. However, some energy officials believe direct government-to-government deals could offer better rates than tendering.

The Pakistani official added that Saudi Aramco may sign a long-term supply deal with Pakistan, potentially also providing some of the 400 mmcfd available at the second terminal. (Reporting by Drazen Jorgic; editing by Christian Schmollinger)

Riaz Haq said...

Gas shortage to increase by 157pc next fiscal year
Khaleeq Kiani Updated April 27, 2019

https://www.dawn.com/news/1478633

Gas shortage to increase by 157pc next fiscal year
Khaleeq Kiani Updated April 27, 2019 Facebook Count

With an addition of 700,000 consumers last year, Pakistan’s gas shortfall is estimated to jump by 157 per cent to 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in fiscal year 2019-20 — almost equal to total gas supplies at present.

The estimates have been made by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) that put the gas shortfall increasing almost continuously every year to 6.6bcfd by FY2028.

In its flagship “State of the Industry Report 2017-18”, the authority noted that the (natural gas) demand-supply gap during FY2017-18 was 1,447mmcfd and that this gap was expected to rise to 3,720mmcfd by FY2019-20. The regulator put the total gas demand at about 6.9bcfd in fiscal year 2019-20 compared to total supplies of about 3.2bcfd.

It said the demand would increase to 7.7bcfd by 2024 but domestic supplies would fall substantially to 2.3bcfd, leaving a shortfall at 5.5bcfd. The shortfall would practically be about 3.6bcfd in FY2024 as the gap would be partially met by about 1.9bcfd of imported LNG.

The domestic gas production would continue to decline from about 3.3bcfd at present to less than1.6bcfd by 2028 while the gas dem­and would keep going up to reach 8.3bcfd by that year. Ogra estimated that despite the induction of all the import options, including LNG, Turkmen­istan-Afgha­n­is­tan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan (IP) pipelines, the total supplies would decline to 3.7bcfd by 2028, creating a net shortfall of about 4.6bcfd, more than total supplies at present.

The regulator said the gap was rising because of higher consumption in almost all the major sectors particularly power, domestic, fertiliser, captive power and industry as the supplies were not keeping pace with higher demand.

Both the gas utility companies added around 0.7 million domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, in their respective systems, during fiscal year 2017-18. Consumer addition is incre­asing the gap between dem­a­nd and supplies, day by day. Especially in winter, the gas demand further increased and as a result the government is being forced to curtail supplies to various sectors.

Despite this, the natural gas is a major contributing fuel in the country’s energy mix. Its share in the primary energy mix is around 48pc.

There is a significant rise in demand and consumption of gas by residential and domestic consumers owing to price differential vis-a-vis other competing fuels, i.e. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fire wood and coal. The LPG presently accounts for about 1.3pc of the total primary energy supply in the country.

The current size of LPG market is around 1.3 million tonnes per year. The LPG consumption has increased by 5.88pc in 2017-18 compared to the previous year.

LPG consumption during FY2017-18, stood at around 3,508 tons per day. Local production catered for around 58pc, the rest was imported.

The share of re-gasified LNG in the overall gas supply increased to 23pc in FY 2017-18. The total gas consumers were more than 9.2m by the end of FY2017-18, including 6.3m in the SNGPL network and 2.9m in the SSGCL network.

The power sector was the main consumer of natural gas during FY 2017-18, consuming 37pc, followed by domestic sector 20pc, fertiliser 17pc, captive power 10pc, industrial sector 9pc, transport 5pc, and commercial sector having 2pc share.

Punjab had the highest 50pc consumption, followed by Sindh 39pc, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 9pc and Balochistan 2pc. Natural gas supplies during the year stood at 4.357bcfd, of which Sindh supplied 50pc, whereas Khyber Pakhtun­khwa, Balochistan and Punjab supplied 12, 11 and 4pc respectively. The remaining 23pc of gas was imported in the form LNG.


Riaz Haq said...

Powering #Pakistan. There is enough #coal at #Thar to cater for the #energy needs of the nation for two centuries. Imported #LNG #gas costs about 40% higher than Synthetic Natural Gas (#SNG) produced from Thar Coal. #power #electricity https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/07/15/powering-pakistan/#.XS3_3iOqyAc.twitter

BY DR FARID A MALIK

Pakistan is finally on the world Coal Map. On July 08, 2019 power generated from Thar Coal entered the national grid; electricity is now being produced by combustion of the local Lignite. At 175 billion tons this is one of the largest coal deposits of the world. The coalfield is spread over 9,000 square kilometers. It was discovered in 1996 by a joint investigation of Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) and United States Geological Survey (USGS). It is an important milestone, now that power can be generated by using indigenous fuel. Currently I am working on building an energy system based on this coal by using 21st century technologies.

In 1952 another important event took place when natural gas was discovered at Sui. With 12 trillion cubic feet (TCF) this was the largest deposit of its time. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) established a joint venture company called Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) that pumps out gas from this resource. Two public sector companies distribute gas across the country. Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) brings gas upcountry to Punjab and KP while Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) covers Sindh and Balochistan. The pipeline is spread over 20,000 kilometers, it is a state of the art system designed and built by local expertise. For fifty years (1952 to 2002) the energy needs of the nation were catered for by this source. Unfortunately due to misuse and mismanagement the resource has been depleted before its time. It is down to 2TCF now. Gas is being imported from Qatar to meet the shortfall of about 2000 mmcfd. The price of this imported gas at $11.4 per mmbtu is unaffordable. In the US this gas is sold at $3 per mmbtu.

Sui Gas was the energy gift of the founding fathers of Pakistan while Thar is our contribution to the coming generations which will long be cherished and utilised

There is enough coal at Thar to cater for the energy needs of the nation for two centuries. This resource can power Pakistan to prosperity. Mining of coal was the major challenge which has been overcome by a joint venture company formed by ENGRO and Government of Sindh (GoS) called SECMC (Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company). Coal is mined and then delivered at site to a power generation company called ENGRO Powergen Thar.

As Chairman Pakistan Science Foundation (PSF), I started working on the development of Thar Coal in 2004. In August 2018, after 14 years I stood at the bottom of the mine to touch the black gold for the first time. It was a dream come true. Sui Gas was the energy gift of the founding fathers of Pakistan while Thar is our contribution to the coming generations which will long be cherished and utilised.

No nation can prosper without covering its energy needs. Imported fuel cannot ensure sustainability. Rising costs of power and gas have substantially increased the cost of production rendering our exports non-competitive. The fuel advantage that we once had no longer exists. The black gold at Thar can revive the much needed competitiveness. Coal is being mined in Block II by SECMC while a Chinese consortium has started to dig in Block I. Thar Coal Energy Board (TCEB) has thus far demarcated 14 blocks for exploration.

Imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) costs about 40% higher than Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) produced from Thar Coal. Above ground gasification after mining is an established technology. There are several plants in Germany, South Africa, China and the US where coal is being used to produce multiple products that include; gas, fertilizer, diesel and chemicals. Pakistan can benefit from this know how that already exists.


Riaz Haq said...

#Italian, #Chinese major petroleum companies vie in #Pakistan's mega #LNG tender worth $5 billion to $6 billion. Pakistan to be a big growth driver in global LNG demand. Wood Mackenzie estimates the country will need 25 million tonnes a year. #energy #gas https://reut.rs/2LB7SbJ

Eni and PetroChina’s Singapore unit were joined by the trading arm of Azeri state oil company SOCAR and commodities trader Trafigura in placing offers, the sources said.

Pakistan LNG, the state-owned company that issued the tender, declined to name any bidders.

“The technical bids for our long-term LNG supply tender were received and opened yesterday. Evaluations are underway,” it said.

SOCAR Trading SA confirmed it had bid. Trafigura said it does not comment on tenders. A spokesperson noted Trafigura was a stakeholder in the terminal due to receive the tendered LNG.

“Trafigura owns 150 (million cubic feet a day) of LNG import capacity in that facility, which is key to its plan to supply LNG and gas to Pakistan’s private sector,” the spokesperson said.


Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan energy consumption 85 million tons or 623 million barrels of oil in 2018

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/pakistan-strives-switch-natural-gas-energy-khan-karachi

Pakistan will continue to shift its economy from oil to natural gas, a cleaner and less expensive option.
The government's wide-ranging campaign against graft, and other problems like debt and energy bottlenecks, will likely complicate future Pakistani LNG terminal projects.
Nevertheless, its energy transition will drive demand for increased LNG imports, creating investment opportunities.

As it looks to quench its economy's growing thirst for energy, Pakistan has turned to several multinational companies for an ambitious expansion of its liquefied natural gas terminals on the Arabian Sea. On Sept. 20, Petroleum Minister Omar Ayub Khan said Pakistan had chosen ExxonMobil, Trafigura, Royal Dutch Shell, Gunvor Group and Tabeer Energy to build five LNG facilities. Ayub's announcement touches upon a broader plan to boost the country's LNG processing capacity while shifting its economic reliance away from oil. With a shortfall in domestic production expected to persist even as power demand climbs, Pakistan's appetite for natural gas for electricity generation will drive ever-more LNG imports over the next few years. And though some might hesitate to invest in Pakistani LNG lest local partners run afoul of a far-reaching (and allegedly politically motivated) anti-corruption campaign, the growth of the country's LNG demand creates major opportunities for international energy companies looking to capitalize on one of Asia's fastest-growing markets.

Natural gas is Pakistan's most important source of energy. The country's energy consumption last year met the equivalent of 85 million metric tons of oil in total; natural gas accounted for the biggest share at 44 percent, outpacing oil and coal combined. Natural gas is a critical input in Pakistan's economy for numerous industries, including the power generation, commercial, fertilizer and transport sectors, among others. For Prime Minister Imran Khan's government, using more natural gas serves a broader purpose as well: lessening the country's reliance on furnace oil, a more expensive energy source per unit that inflates the import bill, especially when dollar-denominated oil prices rise (of course, LNG is also denominated in dollars, but its price per unit is generally cheaper). And given the country's slow climb out from its latest balance of payments crisis — which exacerbated the rising energy bill, forcing Islamabad to seek a $6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July — the government has a strong incentive to ease its dependence on oil.

Despite the clearly growing importance of natural gas to Pakistan's economy, supply is failing to keep pace. Through the fiscal year ending in June 2020, the country's petroleum regulator has forecast a shortfall of 104.7 million cubic meters (mmcm), or 3.7 billion cubic feet, per day — more double last year's deficit. The addition of 700,000 consumers to the overall consumer base of 9.6 million over the past year partly accounts for an uptick in demand, which increases during winter. But the shortfall — estimated at an equivalent 2,000 megawatts of electricity — sheds light on fundamental problems in the energy sector involving distribution, transmission and circular debt. A reliance on burning more expensive furnace oil to drive generators forces the government to offer subsidies to power companies. However, the failure of the cash-strapped government to actually pay these subsidies creates a cascading effect throughout the power supply chain as each customer is unable to pay its suppliers, leading to load-shedding, which greatly limits business activity.