Friday, September 29, 2017

Pakistan Among Fastest Growing LNG Markets in the World

Pakistan joined the list of LNG importers last year and promptly became one of the world's fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The South Asian nation has suffered a crippling energy shortage as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

Pakistan Gas Market Forecast. Source: Platts

Global LNG Market:

Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan together imported 13.9 million tons of LNG, more than the combined increase of 11.9 million tons by the most populous nations of China and India.

The biggest increase in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the USA, after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. Qatar remained the world’s largest LNG exporting country, accounting for around 30% of global trade of 258 MT by exporting 77.2 MT, according to International Gas Union report 2017.

LNG Demand in Pakistan:

Pakistan has been a big consumer of natural gas since the discovery of Sui gas fields in Balochistan in 1952. Sui now accounts for just 6% of natural gas domestically produced in Pakistan. The rest of the 94% comes from gas fields in other parts of Pakistan. Among the various provinces, Sindh is now the biggest producer of natural gas. Demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

Pakistan is currently importing 2 million MT (96 billion cubic feet) of LNG and negotiating to secure an additional 3 million MT in long-term contracts by the end of 2017 to supply its new LNG floating terminal due to arrive by December, according to M. Adnan Gilani, chief operating officer with Pakistan LNG Ltd, as reported by Platts.

New supply agreements will increase Pakistan's total LNG contracts total to more than 11 million MT per year, as the country aims to resolve a decade-long energy crisis, driven by growing gas consumption and falling domestic production.

In addition to government-to-government contracts, there are also private and public companies negotiating deals to import LNG. For example, Karachi-based power generator K-Electric is seeking supply for its 900-megawatt, $1-billion Port Qasim Power Station which will start-up in two phases, in mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to Reuters news agency.

In the longer term, Pakistan aims to allocate a quarter of its LNG purchases to the spot and short-term markets, Pakistan LNG Ltd's Adnan Gilani told Platts. "Initially, our goal is to solve our energy crisis. We have long-term downstream commitments, so we do not mind going to mid-to-long term initially," he said. "Over the course of time, we will be able to cater to our variable non-cyclical demand... and allocate about a quarter of our portfolio to spot and short term. PLL is currently purchasing four cargoes per month on a short-term basis as it awaits the start of new term volumes.

By 2022, Pakistan expects to import 30 million MT (1,440 billion cubic feet) of LNG, according to Adnan Gilani of PLL.

LNG Infrastructure:

There is one LNG terminal currently operational at Port Qasim and 5 more are planned in Pakistan over the next two years to deal with rising volume of LNG imports. New pipelines are planned by South Sui Gas and Northern Sui Gas companies to transmit regasified LNG to various parts of the country to meet demand.

Summary:

Pakistan is among the fastest growing LNG markets, according to Shell 2017 LNG report.  The country has suffered a crippling energy shortage in recent years as demand has risen sharply to over 6 billion cubic feet per day,  far outstripping the domestic production of about 4 billion cubic feet per day. Recent LNG imports are beginning to make a dent in Pakistan's ongoing energy crisis and helping to boost economic growth. Current global oversupply and low LNG prices are helping customers get better terms on contracts.

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11 comments:

Moh said...

Pakistan's LNG demand expected to reach 30 mil mt/year by 2022: PLL
Singapore (Platts)--16 Feb 2017 1025 pm EST/325 GMT

Pakistan plans to ambitiously grow its LNG imports over the next few years, Adnan Gilani, the chief operating office of Pakistan LNG Ltd. (PLL), re-affirmed at the LNG Supplies for Asian Market (LNGA) conference in Singapore this week.

PLL expects Pakistan's 3.5 million mt/year (465 MMcf/d of gas equivalent) of LNG imports in 2016 to rise dramatically to 20 million mt/year in 2018 and 30 million mt/year by 2022, Gilani said.

He added that the country views LNG as a short-to-medium term solution for meeting a projected gas shortfall of 2-4 Bcf/d, depending on assumption scenarios used.

The country's gas shortfall recently culminated in a gas crisis in 2015, resulting in under-utilized gas-fired power plants, compensated for by expensive oil imports for power, and the country's fertilizer and textile sectors suffering shutdowns, Gilani said.

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/singapore/pakistans-lng-demand-expected-to-reach-30-mil-27771003

NBRX said...

Of course, Pakistan is a new entrant. This is a play on statistics. Going from 1 to 2 is 100% increase but going from 50 to 75 is only 50% - but it has increased in VOLUME by 25 compared to just 1.

Riaz Haq said...

Siemens has received an order from Pakistan for a complete power island for the new combined cycle Punjab Power Plant Jhang. The order was placed by the China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC). As EPC contractor the Chinese company is building the project for the independent energy provider Punjab Thermal Power (Pvt) Ltd (PTPL). The liquefied natural gas (LNG)-operated plant is being built 250 kilometers southwest of Lahore and will provide a power generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts.

The power island from Siemens includes two SGT5-8000H gas turbines, one SST-5000 steam turbine, two heat recovery steam generators as well as control and auxiliary systems. Siemens will also be responsible for engineering and project management as well as for the associated on-site services. The power plant will initially feed electricity in simple-cycle operation in December 2018. It will then take up combined cycle operation in November 2019. The order for Siemens is valued at approximately 200 million euros.

The H-class has been successfully proven in operation, and Siemens has sold 84 of these machines to date. With 47 turbines in commercial operation, the H-class has now completed approximately 500,000 operating hours with an average reliability of approximately 99 percent.

http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/10/siemens-receives-power-plant-order-from-pakistan.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan discovers its largest #oil and #gas reserves in #Punjab near Attock. #energy

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/234489-POL-discovers-largest-reserves-of-oil-and-gas

Pakistan Oil fields Limited (POL) had discovered one of the largest oil and gas reserves from its Jhandial well (Punjab) in the last five years.

Jhandial well is located in Ikhlas Block in Northern Potwar, about 83 kilometers Southwest of Islamabad in District Attock, said an official.

POL holds 80% share in the block whereas The Attock Oil Company (AOC) has a 20% share.

The block is located in a prospective but geologically complex area surrounded by a number of significant oil discoveries.

The drilling of the deep exploratory well Jhandial-1 was proposed after acquisition and interpretation of recently acquired 3D seismic data.

The well was drilled to a total depth of 18,497 feet to test the Eocene and Paleocene carbonate reservoirs.

During testing, significant amount of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) were encountered in the Sakessar, Nammal (Eocene) and Patala (Paleocene) formations with flow rates of 21 million cubic feet of gas and 2,520 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 40/64"at well head flowing pressure of 3,768 psi, 19 million cubic feet of gas and 2,160 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 32/64"at well head flowing pressure of 5,364 psi and 16.5million cubic feet of gas and 1,630 barrels of oil per day at choke size of 28/64"at well head flowing pressure of 6,290 psi.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity of the oil is around 40o and the gas has a rich calorific value of 1,161 British Thermal Units per standard cubic feet of gas.

The gas composition analysis indicates that it contains about 86% methane, 7.2% ethane and 2.9% propane. The LPG content of the gas is about 2.5 metric tons per million cubic feet of gas.

The well will be connected to the production line within two weeks and will gradually attain full potential.

Structurally, Jhandial is a thrusted anticline just north of the Dhurnal Oil field. It has a closed area of about 15 square kilometers in the most likely case, with a thick net reservoir column from top of the Chorgali Formation (Eocene) to the base of the Paleocene Formation.

Preliminary initial estimated recoverable reserves of the field are in the range of at least 292 billion standard cubic feet of gas and 23 million barrels of oil.

The Jhandial discovery is expected to contribute to the country's energy sustainability while also having a positive impact on the future of exploratory efforts in the block and surrounding areas.

Riaz Haq said...

#LNG revolutionizing #Pakistan’s #energy sector. #gas #CNG

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1526272/bridging-energy-shortfall-lng-revolutionising-pakistans-energy-sector/

If one looks at Pakistan’s print and electronic media, it would appear that nothing has gone right for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the country. However, the rest of the world has a completely different view of the matter.

They marvel as to how quickly the government of Pakistan was able to sign contracts at the most economical prices, build LNG terminals and other infrastructure, and actually begin using the gas to alleviate severe energy shortages.

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Already some results are becoming evident. The most obvious effect has been on the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) in automobiles. Almost 75% of around 3,200 CNG pumping stations operating in 2012 have restarted their operations, according to the All Pakistan Compressed Natural Gas Association.

Pakistan was amongst the top CNG-user countries with 3.7 million CNG-run vehicles before 2012. Since LNG is at least 30% more economical to use, its availability to automobiles will result in considerable savings for consumers as well as the government. The other advantage is that CNG is a cleaner fuel.

It is not just transport and power sectors that are the major beneficiaries, other sectors benefit as well. Gas is used as raw material in the manufacture of fertilisers and this year Pakistan has become a net exporter rather than an importer of the commodity.

It is time other sectors such as Railways start planning to switch from diesel-run locomotives to LNG. This would save 40-60% of fuel cost.

Our obsolete furnace-oil based power plants should be replaced by more energy-efficient LNG-based plants as is already being done in India. This is expected to save $1.5-2 billion in foreign exchange annually.

With the availability of cheaper fuel, Pakistan’s competitiveness will increase, resulting in revival of exports and the overall economy.

With the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) early harvest projects, and no energy worries, the incoming government in 2018 would inherit a Pakistan different than what it was only four years ago.

Riaz Haq said...

Fleeing #India foreign institutional #investors heading straight to #Pakistan; heres why. #KSE100 http://ecoti.in/9McAza via @economictimes

After losing a quarter of its value in five months as the prime minister was ousted over corruption charges and the current-account deficit ballooned, Pakistan’s stock market is starting to look cheap to foreign funds.

The market is definitely oversold and it’s a good time to buy, said Mohammed Ali Hussain, a senior analyst in Dubai at Frontier Investment Management Partners Ltd. The shares have now fallen enough to compensate for the risk of a rupee devaluation and look attractive ..

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Beset by political turmoil and an increasingly precarious macroeconomic position, Pakistan has seen $402 million of stocks outflows this year even as the country was restored to emerging-market status by index provider MSCI Inc. But with an economy supported by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “ One Belt One Road” infrastructure push and average valuations that have fallen to around half the level of Indian shares, sentiment is turning.


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61182075.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Riaz Haq said...

World Bank report: Hydro important part of private infrastructure development in Pakistan

http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/10/world-bank-report-hydro-important-part-of-private-infrastructure-development-in-pakistan.html

A recent report on private investment in infrastructure development, released by the World Bank Group, offers some insights into hydro, including the fact that investments in two hydropower plants in Pakistan helped boost that country into the top five.
The January-June 2017 Private Participation in Infrastructure Half Year Update cites investments in hydropower in Pakistan worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion and says the country was a new entrant to the list of top five countries for private participation in infrastructure. Other countries in the top five are Indonesia, Jordan, Brazil and China.
In Pakistan, the US$1.9 billion investment is for the 870-MW Suki Kinari Hydropower Plant. Suki Kinara is on the Kunhar River in the Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is expected to be completed by 2021.
The US$1.7 billion investment is for the 720-MW Karot Hydropower Plant. The Karot project, on the Jhelum River east of Islamabad, is being developed under Pakistan’s Power Policy of 2002. The first units are expected to go on line in 2020.
A section of the report discusses the energy sector, which was “the most dominant sector for H1 [first half] 2017 investment, accounting for three-quarters of global investments.” The report indicates that, by capacity, hydro projects led the way with cumulative capacity of 1.9 GW.
Of all the private participation in the energy sector in the first half of 2017, 85% was in renewables, and 15% of that 83% was hydropower.


JANUARY – JUNE
2017
Private Participation
in Infrastructure (PPI)
HALF YEAR UPDATE

https://ppi.worldbank.org/~/media/GIAWB/PPI/Documents/Global-Notes/PPI2017_HalfYear_Update.pdf

Indonesia was the destination for the highest amount of PPI investment, while Pakistan and
Jordan were new entrants to the top five countries, joining Indonesia, Brazil, and China.
Indonesia, Pakistan, and Jordan are amongst the top five highest PPI-investment countries because
of a few multibillion-dollar power projects. Indonesia saw investments in US$ 4.2 billion and US$2.2
billion coal fired power plants, Jordan had a US$2.1 billion investment in an oil shale-fired power
plant, and Pakistan had investments in two hydropower plants worth US$1.9 billion and US$1.7 billion.


Riaz Haq said...

THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS
LNG supply: Pakistan seeks further fee cut for North-South pipeline

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1539653/2-lng-supply-pakistan-seeks-fee-cut-north-south-pipeline/

Pakistan has asked Russia to make a further reduction in the tolling fee for pumping liquefied natural gas (LNG) through a planned $2 billion North-South pipeline that will bring energy for consumers in Punjab.

“Pakistan is seeking to further push down the fee to $0.78 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in talks with Russia,” a senior government official said while talking to The Express Tribune.

Earlier, Moscow had demanded $1.2 per mmbtu for gas transmission. However, a negotiating committee, set up with approval of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC), later agreed on 85 cents per unit.

At present, the two sides are finalising terms and conditions of a commercial agreement to pave the way for execution of the project.

“Pakistan and Russia have discussed parallel ways of implementing the project amid fears of sanctions on the Russian companies nominated to execute the project,” the official said. “After the two sides sign the commercial agreement, groundbreaking of the project will take place.”

Riaz Haq said...

Exclusive-Exxon Exit Deals Blow to Pakistan Plans for LNG Imports

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/10/30/business/30reuters-pakistan-lng-exxon-mobil.html

Exxon Mobil has pulled out of a major project in Pakistan, in a potential blow to plans to boost imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after years of winter shortages.

Differences among the six-member group behind the project in Port Qasim in Karachi mean French oil major Total and Japan's Mitsubishi may also quit and join a rival scheme, government officials and industry sources told Reuters.

A senior Pakistani government official put the chances of success for the project, set to be Pakistan's third and biggest by import capacity, at 10-20 percent due to the disagreements.

A highly-developed pipeline grid, extensive industrial demand and the biggest natural gas-powered vehicle fleet in Asia after China and Iran make Pakistan an easy fit for LNG and official estimates show imports could jump fivefold to 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2022.

The new project would include a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), where LNG will be converted back into gas for feeding into the country's grid.

Qatar Petroleum [QATPE.UL], the world's biggest LNG producer, Turkish developer Global Energy Infrastructure Limited (GEIL) and Norway's Hoegh LNG, which will provide the FSRU, are the other partners.

While Exxon has pulled out, the U.S. company was now negotiating to join a separate project, Hasil Bizenjo, Pakistan's Maritime Affairs minister in charge of ports, said.

"They are thinking to build a new terminal in Port Qasim," Bizenjo told Reuters in the Pakistan capital Islamabad, adding that Mitsubishi and Total were also in talks about taking stakes in another consortium.

Exxon was pulling out because it had "issues with partners", particularly the developer, GEIL, one energy official said. Exxon's move leaves in doubt a multi-billion dollar deal Qatar has already struck with GEIL for the sale of up to 2.3 million tonnes of LNG annually over 20-years.

Exxon Mobil, Total and GEIL declined to comment, while a Mitsubishi spokesman said that the Japanese company has been continuing its talks with partners over the project.

Qatar Petroleum did not respond to requests for comment.

NEW INVESTORS?

LNG imports have transformed Pakistan's energy map since the country's first import facility was introduced in 2015.

If the second LNG terminal proceeds without glitches the South Asian nation will not suffer winter gas shortages for the first time in more than 10 years, energy officials say, in a likely boost for Prime Minister Shahid Abbasi's ruling party before the next general elections, due in mid-2018.

Government officials and industry sources said talks are underway to bring new players into the project, including Swiss trading house Vitol [VITOLV.UL], which declined to comment.

Rival traders Trafigura and Gunvor are already developing LNG projects in Pakistan, betting the country will account for a rising share of future profits and LNG trade.

Pakistan plans to add its second LNG import terminal by the end of this year, but private companies have proposed building six more largely around Port Qasim.

Riaz Haq said...

'Spectacular' drop in renewable energy costs leads to record global boost
Falling solar and wind prices have led to new power deals across the world despite investment in renewables falling

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/06/spectacular-drop-in-renewable-energy-costs-leads-to-record-global-boost

Renewable energy capacity around the world was boosted by a record amount in 2016 and delivered at a markedly lower cost, according to new global data – although the total financial investment in renewables actually fell.

The greater “bang-for-buck” resulted from plummeting prices for solar and wind power and led to new power deals in countries including Denmark, Egypt, India, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates all being priced well below fossil fuel or nuclear options.

Analysts warned that the US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, announced last week by Donald Trump, risked the US being left behind in the fast-moving transition to a low-carbon economy. But they also warned that the green transition was still not happening fast enough to avoid the worst impacts of global warming, especially in the transport and heating sectors.

The new renewable energy capacity installed worldwide in 2016 was 161GW, a 10% rise on 2015 and a new record, according to REN21, a network of public and private sector groups covering 155 nations and 96% of the world’s population.

The new record capacity cost $242bn, a 23% reduction in investment compared to 2015, and renewables investment remained larger than for all fossil fuels. Subsidies for green energy, however, are still much lower than those for coal, oil and gas.

New solar power provided the biggest boost – half of all new capacity – followed by wind power at a third and hydropower at 15%. It is the first year that the new solar capacity added has been greater than any other electricity-producing technology.

“A global energy transition [is] well under way, with record new additions of installed renewable energy capacity, rapidly falling costs and the decoupling of economic growth and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions for the third year running,” said Arthouros Zervos, chair of REN21.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan’s private sector to get new #LNG terminal

http://www.gulf-times.com/story/574696/Pakistan-s-private-sector-to-get-new-LNG-terminal

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Pakistan’s domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.

A consortium comprising local and foreign business houses is poised to set up Pakistan’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal that would be dedicated to energy-starved private sector, industry officials said yesterday.
The officials said that the consortium consisting of Fatima Group, Shell Gas BV, Gunvor Group Ltd and Engro Elengy Terminal Ltd would set up the terminal with a capacity to regasify 600mn metric cubic feet per day in ‘near future’. It would enable private buyers to buy RLNG on competitive price.
At present, the two LNG terminals operated by Engro Elengy and Pakistan GasPort Consortium Ltd – with 1.2bn cubic feet per day capacity – are mainly catering to the need of RLNG-based power plants of the government.
The present domestic gas production capacity is approximately 4bn cubic feet per day (bcfd), while demand is more than 6bn bcfd, resulting in a growing shortfall of gas which is expected to worsen in the coming years. An estimate said the gap between demand and supply is projected to double by 2020.
The increasing trend in demand will continue to pose challenge despite initiative taken by the government that led to injecting of RLNG into domestic network in early 2015.
Official said the new consortium has shown commitment to start work on LNG terminal in view of the government’s encouraging policies.
“This initiative will boost imports of much-needed LNG for the energy-starved private sector,” an official said.
Officials said the new LNG partnership will help in further reinforcing energy security of the country by reducing demand supply gap with provision of one of the cheapest fuels on competitive terms.
An independent private LNG market will encourage competition as private buyers and sellers will truly create a viable energy market, they added. Gas shortages resulted in extreme stress to economy during the last decade. The industrial and commercial sectors have especially been bearing the brunt of chronic energy shortages.
The shortfall directly affected as many as 500,000 households, while it also caused shutdown of industries or slowdown in production, causing unemployment, according to an estimate. Particularly, export-oriented sectors are badly hurt by energy and power crisis that led to loss of export revenue.
More than 2,500 megawatts of power projects were brought online or switched from expensive liquid fuels with the injection of imported RLNG, while 750 plus compressed natural gas stations commenced operation in the Punjab alone, creating a new hope of survival for $4.5bn industry.
Furthermore, the revival of more than 500 industrial units mainly comprising of export-oriented textile could be made possible due to LNG supplies.
Similarly, the robust fertiliser industry that was plagued by non-availability of natural gas could only be revived after RLNG supplies. Consequently, the fertiliser industry has witnessed an increase of 1mn tonnes in production.
LNG is one of the most rapidly expanding energy commodities globally due to its obvious economic and environmental advantages. Global LNG trade reached an all-time high of 260mn tonnes in 2016.
The sector’s 10-year compound annual growth rate stands at 5%. The world’s regasification capacity stood at 820mn tonnes per annum last year.