Sunday, September 10, 2017

Where's the Real Population "Disaster in the Making"? Pakistan or the West?

Multiple western newspaper headlines are screaming of a "disaster in the making" in Pakistan after the latest population census in the country. These headlines beg the following questions:  Is Pakistan's total fertility rate of 2.62 children per woman a bigger disaster than the sub-replacement level of less than 2 children per woman in the West? Are the rapidly aging western societies and declining working population less of a disaster than Pakistan with its younger population and a growing percentage of it in the work force?  To answer these questions, let's consider the following quote:

“So where will the children of the future come from? Increasingly they will come from people who are at odds with the modern world. Such a trend, if sustained, could drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, gradually creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism - a new dark ages.” ― Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It

Fear of Population Bomb:

The above quote captures the true essence of the West's racist fears about what some of them call the "population bomb": East will dominate the West economically and politically for centuries if the growing colored populations of developing Asia and Africa turn the West's former colonies into younger and more dynamic nations with rising education and better living standards.

Much of the developed world has already fallen below the "replacement" fertility rate of 2.1.  Fertility rates impact economic dynamism, cultural stability and political and military power in the long run.

Pakistan Population Pyramid by Age/Gender. Source: Theodora via CIA

Pakistan Population Growth:

Pakistani women's fertility rates have declined significantly from about 4.6 in 2000 to 2.62 babies per woman in 2017, a drop of 43% in 17 years.  It is being driven drown by the same forces that have worked in the developed world in the last century: increasing urbanization, growing incomes, greater participation in the workforce and rising education.  Pakistan now ranks 65 among 108 countries with TFR of 2.1 (replacement rate) or higher.

The latest Census 2017 results show that Pakistan's population growth rate has declined to 2.34% between 1998 and 2017, down from 2.61% (from 1981 to 1998) and 3.4% (from 1961-81). Life expectancy has increased from about 62 years in 1998 to 66.5 years now. The total fertility rate has declined from 4.6 children per woman in 1998 to to 2.62 children per woman in 2017.  At the same time, Pakistan's labor force is growing at a rate of 3.6% a year, faster than the 2.34% overall population growth. Given Pakistan's human capital growth in recent years, it is a welcome situation that is expected to produce significant demographic dividend for the country.

Labor Force Expansion:

Pakistan's labor force expansion is the 3rd biggest in the world after India and Nigeria, according to UN World Population Prospects 2017. Rising working age population and growing workforce participation of both men and women in developing nations like Pakistan will boost domestic savings and investments, according to Global Development Horizons (GDH) report. Escaping the low savings low investment trap will help accelerate the lagging GDP growth rate in Pakistan, as will increased foreign investment such as the Chinese investment in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Increased savings and investments will not only enlarge the nation's tax base but also help create more jobs for the expected new entrants into the work force as it did in 2000-2010, according to a World Report titled "More and Better Jobs in South Asia".

Pakistan's Total Fertility Rate 2.62 Children Per Woman. Source: Washington Post 

Source: World Bank Report "More and Better Jobs in South Asia"

Pakistan's working age population in 15-64 years age bracket is expected to increase by 27.5 million people to 147.1 million in 10 years, according to Bloomberg News' analysis of data reported in UN World Population Prospects 2017.  Pakistan's increase of 27.5 million is the third largest after India's 115.9 million and Nigeria's 34.2 million increase in working age population of 15-64 years old. China's working age population in 15-64 years age group will decline by 21 million in the next 10 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan's labor force growth will continue by adding 80 million workers n 30 years' time, third only to India's 234 million and Nigeria's 130 million additional workers in 15-64 years age group. China's work force will decline by 171 million workers in this time period.

Source: Bloomberg

Savings, Investment and GDP Growth:

Currently, about a third of Pakistan's population is below the age of 15, dependent on working age adults. This high ratio of dependent population results in low savings, low investment and consequent slower economic growth and sub-par socio-economic development.

Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistan's national savings was about 10% of GDP in 1960s. It increased to above 15% in 2000s in Musharraf years, but declined afterwards. It is well below the savings rates in South Asia region with India's 30%, Bangladesh's 28%, and Sri Lanka's 24.5%.

Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Higher levels of inequality in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka account at least partially for their higher savings rates than Pakistan's because people in higher income groups tend to save more of what they earn. But the other probably more important reason for Pakistan's lower savings rate is the larger percentage of children under the age of 15 who do  not work and depend on their parents' incomes.

Rising working age population and growing workforce participation of both men and women in Pakistan will boost domestic savings and investments, just as it has in other South Asian nations.

Projected World Population. Source: Nikkei 

Countries With Declining Populations:

115 countries, including China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17),  Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8) are well below the replacement level of 2.1 TFR.  Their populations will sharply decline in later part of the 21st century along with the economic growth rates.

 United States is currently at 1.87 TFR, below the replacement rate but still better than China and other developed nations mainly due to immigration.  "We don't take a stance one way or the other on whether it's good or bad," said Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. Small year-to-year changes like those experienced by the United States don't make much difference, he noted. But a sharp or sustained drop over a decade or more "will certainly have long-term consequences for society," he told Utah-based Desert News National.

Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.

Median Age Map: Africa in teens, Pakistan in 20s, China, South America and US in 30s, Europe, Canada and Japan in 40s.

The Russian population grew from about 100 million in 1950 to almost149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the Russian population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million, according to Yale Global Online.
Lancet Population Projection For Top 5 Countries

Reversing Trends:

Countries, most recently China, are finding that it is far more difficult to raise low fertility than it is reduce high fertility. The countries in the European Union are offering a variety of incentives, including birth starter kits to assist new parents in Finland, cheap childcare centers and liberal parental leave in France and a year of paid maternity leave in Germany, according to Desert News. But the fertility rates in these countries remain below replacement levels.


Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An "older society", noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is "less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial." Pakistan's labor force growth is forecast to be the 3rd biggest in the world after India's and Nigeria's, according to UN World Population Prospects 2017. Rising working age population and growing workforce participation of both men and women in developing nations like Pakistan will boost domestic savings and investment, according to Global Development Horizons (GDH) report. Escaping the low savings low investment trap will help accelerate the lagging GDP growth rate in Pakistan as will increased foreign investment such as Chinese investment in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor over the next several decades.

Here's a discussion on this and other subjects:

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Labor Force Expansion on Saving, Investments and GDP Growth

Pakistan's Population Growth: Blessing or Curse?

Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

World Bank Report on Job Growth in Pakistan

Underinvestment Hurting Pakistan's GDP Growth

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Musharraf Accelerated Growth of Pakistan's Financial and Human Capital

Working Women Seeding a Silent Revolution in Pakistan


Asma said...

What do you suggest Orangi families to do? Average is 4+ children per married woman there. Our NGO was banned by the local mosque. I didnt think educated people like yourself should talk like a mullah and encourage more children.

Riaz Haq said...

Asma: "What do you suggest Orangi families to do? Average is 4+ children per married woman there."

Your claim of 4+ children per woman in Orangi is not credible given the fact that Pakistan's overall fertility rate is 2.62 and Karachi, being a major city, has lower fertility rate than the national average.

Asma said...

The 2.6 TFR number is from CIA Factbook from a 2016 estimate (click on country comparison) and not from 2017 census. The census figure is around 3.5 extrapolated. The Population Reference Bureau estimates it at 3.6 TFR and a population of 203.6 million according to their 2016 estimates. PRB had correctly estimated the Pakistan 2017 census population in 2016. The World Bank has the TFR at 3.6 as well

Riaz Haq said...

Asma: "The 2.6 TFR number is from CIA Factbook from a 2016 estimate (click on country comparison) and not from 2017 census."

Yes, I see a wide range of figures quoted for TFR in Pakistan.

Now the CIA estimated Pakistan's population at 201,995,540 as of July 2016.

That's really close to the 207 million Census 2017 population figure.

So I think the CIA pyramid is a pretty good starting point for TFR estimation.

It requires some work to figure out a reasonable TFR estimate using raw data from population pyramid.

Here's a rough calculation of total fertility rate in Pakistan that I have done:

Population of Women 15-50 years: 50 million

girls 15-19 10 million

women 20-24 10 million

women 25-29 9 million

women 30-34 7 million

women 35-39 5 million

women 40-44 4 million

women 45-49 4 million

Median age in the country: 23.4 years .... 104 million below this age

Let's assume these 104 million are children of 50 million women 15-50 years. Let's also assume 20 million of these women will have another 1.5 children per woman to add another 30 million children

So it's 134 million children among 50 million women

It works out to total fertility rate of 2.68 children per woman.

Based on data from


Mayraj said...

India's pop boom is frightening since economy's focus is so limited.

Has made a mess of ag development and the v small plots means growing boom of landless and more going hungry.

India's organized sector job creation plummets post-2010, leaving people under-employed, poorly paid: OECD report

Riaz Haq said...

Mayraj: " India's pop boom is frightening since economy's focus is so limited."

INDIA - Bloomberg reports that India's Youth will be the World's Future by having the strongest workforce in the world.

Half of India's population are millennials, under the age of 25 whereas two-thirds of the country's population is below the age of 35.

India's workforce is expected to increase to a billion people between the ages of 16 and 54.
The workforce is expected to derive from North India where Uttar Pradesh has a fertility rate of nearly 3 whilst its neighbouring state, Bihar boasts a fertility rate of 3.3. Taking into account Bihar's already 100 million population, the state is expected to contribute generously to the establishment of a leading workforce.

India's current demographic transition is occurring on a large scale.

Compared to China's generation mainly in their 50's who have removed their country from poverty to middle-status income, India's population in their 20's are expected to do the same.

Similarly, South Africa's increasing workforce have been trained and prepared for the workplace by Workforce Holdings this year. Independent Online reported in March that diversified services company, Workforce Holdings have trained nearly 15 000 individuals in preparation for the workplace.

The group provides a number of work-related services including temporary as well as permanent recruitment. 1 100 permanent staff are employed by Workforce Holdings and the company has 32 000 temporary contractors weekly.

Workforce Holdings is also listed on the AltX board of the JSE.

Raghuram Rajan flags India's biggest worry that could cost Modi a win in 2019 elections: Slow Job Growth

"Remember that we have what we call the population dividend. A million new people entering the labor force every month," Rajan said. "If we don’t provide these jobs that are required, you have a million dissatisfied entrants. And that could create a lot of social mischief."

Rajan is right in this aspect. India will have the world’s biggest labor force by 2027 and the millennial generation is crucial to anchor one of the fastest paces of economic growth. However, fresh employment opp ..

Under Modi, just over 10,000 jobs a month are being created instead, according to government figures from 2015.

Read more at:

Mayraj said...

Bloomberg is WAY OFF. All the growth in the poorer less capable NORTH.

From 2006 : South_Asia/HE05Df01.html
Doubts over India's 'teeming millions' advantage

Unless their education and skills are improved will not be capable!
Education is failing these people.

"Two overarching challenges face the Indian economy over the long term. One is the challenge of a rapidly deteriorating environment, including the scarcity of fresh water, which I leave aside in this article. The other is the spectre of unemployment or, more accurately, underemployment. There are multiple factors that account for the slow growth of productive jobs, ranging from poor infrastructure to poor governance to the anti-employment bias of a whole slew of economic policies. But the binding constraint on growth of high-productivity employment is the failure of India’s education policy. Only a small proportion of the workforce has the educational foundation required for skilled high-productivity jobs. Barely 5% of the workforce in India has had any skill training. Only 2% have any formal skill certificate compared to over 70% in advanced European countries like the UK or Germany, and as much as 80% to 90% in east Asian countries like Japan and South Korea.
Building on some initiatives of its predecessor, the present government introduced a National Policy on Skill Development and Entrepreneurship 2015 to address India’s enormous skill deficit. Several programmes have been launched under this policy, including the ambitious Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) that aims to train roughly 400 million workers in the 15-45 age group over seven years. The results so far are disappointing. In its submission to a parliamentary committee, the government indicated that of the 1.76 million candidates trained under the PMKVY till 25 April, only 580,000 could be certified as having successfully completed the training. Less than 82,000 were actually placed in jobs. Why is the success rate so low? The answer is quite simple. No skill development programme, however well designed, can succeed without an underlying foundation of basic education. But India’s long-standing neglect of primary and secondary education has greatly limited the access to quality basic education.

The elitist bias of India’s approach to education is evident not in the stated policies, but in the manner of their implementation and the outcomes. After decades of lofty policy goals, India’s poor performance stands out when compared to that of some of our Asian neighbours and other emerging market economies.

Riaz Haq said...

Mayraj: "Bloomberg is WAY OFF. All the growth in the poorer less capable NORTH."

Drifting apart: The gap between #India’s richer and poorer states is widening. #Inequality #Modi … via @TheEconomist

COUNTRIES find it easier to get rich once their neighbours already are. East Asia’s growth pattern has for decades been likened to a skein of geese, from Japan at the vanguard to laggards such as Myanmar at the rear. The same pattern can often be seen within big countries. Over the past decade, for example, China’s poorer provinces have grown faster than their wealthier peers. India is different. Far from converging, its states are getting ever more unequal. A recent shake-up in the tax system might even make matters worse.

Bar a few Mumbai penthouses and Bangalore startup offices, all parts of India are relatively poor by global standards. Taken together, its 1.3bn people make up roughly the third and fourth decile of the world’s population, with an income per person (adjusted for purchasing power) of $6,600 dollars. But that average conceals a vast gap. In Kerala, a southern state, the average resident has an annual income per person of $9,300, higher than Ukraine, and near the global median. With just $2,000 or so, an Indian in Bihar, a landlocked state of 120m people, is closer to a citizen of Mali or Chad, in the bottom decile globally.

The gap has been widening. In 1990, point out Praveen Chakravarty and Vivek Dehejia of the IDFC Institute, a think-tank, India’s three richest large states had incomes just 50% higher than the three poorest—roughly the same divergence as in America or the EU today, and more equal than in China. Now the trio is three times richer (see chart).

In some rich parts of the world, income gaps between regions have in recent decades been widening. But India’s experience still puzzles economists. Poor regions benefit from technology developed in richer ones—from trains to mobile phones. Workers in poorer places accept lower wages, so firms build new factories there.

The catch-up process ought to be all the faster if barriers to the movement of goods or people are lower. Regions within China have converged rapidly, partly owing to the market, as factories move production inland where wages are cheaper, and partly to government attempts to lift poorer regions by investing heavily in their infrastructure.

Arvind Subramanian, chief economic adviser to India’s government, earlier this year wrote that its states’ divergence is “a deep puzzle”. The brief bout of liberalisation in 1991 probably played a part initially, by unevenly distributing the spoils of more rapid overall economic growth. But that burst of inequality should have self-corrected by now.

One theory blames the states’ divergence on their isolation even in the Indian domestic market, as a result of lousy infrastructure, red tape and cultural barriers. Moving stuff from state to state can be as tiresome as exporting. Internal migration that would generate catch-up growth is stymied by cultural and linguistic barriers: poor northern states are Hindi-speaking, unlike the richer south. Cuisines differ enough for internal migrants to grumble. It is harder to have access to benefits and state subsidies outside your home state.

Mr Subramanian thinks such arguments are overdone. India may not have mass migration on the scale that transformed China, but it is still sizeable, he argues, and has been rising as a share of the population even as convergence has gone into reverse. Inter-state trade is healthy, suggesting suitably porous borders.

Another theory looks at India’s development model. Growth has relied more on skill-intensive sectors such as IT than on labour-intensive manufacturing. This may have stymied the forces of convergence seen elsewhere, Mr Subramanian posits. Perhaps, however low their labour costs, the poorer places lack the skills base to poach jobs from richer rivals.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan Govt not going to IMF for any bailout: Finance Division spokesman

The spokesman of the Finance Division gave following comments in response to the report:

The fact that Pakistan’s economic indicators are positive has been acknowledged internationally. Recently, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) stated that Pakistan enjoyed growth despite trade contraction.

The external sector which was under strain in the last two years due to falling exports and declining remittances has now started showing positive and impressive growth both in exports and remittances.

In August 2017, exports have witnessed a growth of 12.89 percent over the same period of 2016, while over previous month the exports are higher by 14.41 percent and imports are only 2.42 percent and during July-August, FY 2018 exports have registered a growth of 11.80 percent.

Similarly, workers’ remittances have shown a growth of 13.18% during July-August, FY 2018 and on month on month basis higher by 26.8 percent in August 2017.

These all bode well that pressure on current account will ease, going forward. The growth in FDI is also on upward trajectory. During July 2017, FDI posted a stellar growth of 162.8 percent.

With regard to taxation, it is to be noted that the share of direct taxes in total taxes has increased over the years.

In 1990-91 the direct taxes were just around 20% of total taxes, rose to 31.1 percent in 2004-05, 38.2 percent in 2012-13 and 39.1 percent in 2015-16.

In FY 2016-17 the share of direct taxes reached 40% and it has become the single largest tax collected by FBR.

The government is focused on further increasing the share of direct taxes through various policy and administrative reforms including broadening of tax base.

Substantial progress has been made to bring potential taxpayers in the tax net during the last four years. As a result of these efforts the number of income tax return filers which was around 766,000 for the tax year 2012 has risen to 1.26 million in the tax year 2016 and would further increase in coming years.

The reforms program has started paying dividends in shape of higher tax revenues, an efficient, modern, transparent and taxpayers’ friendly revenue organization.

The revenue collection has witnessed a substantial increase during last four years. The net collection increased from Rs 1,946 billion in 2012-13 to Rs 3,362 billion in FY 2016-17, registering an overall growth of around 73%.

In absolute terms revenue collection has been increased by Rs 1.4 trillion. The tax-GDP ratio of the country has reached 12.5 percent in FY 2016-17.

With regard to debt, the claim that PML(N) government borrowed record Rs 10.8 trillion is incorrect and based on incorrect projections. The actual increase in present Government’s 4 year tenure is around Rs 6.1 trillion.

Even if the year 2018 is added as projected, the total debt increase in 5 years is expected to remain around Rs 7.5 trillion until 2018. The statement is only intended to mislead the general public by propagating increase in total debt by Rs 10.8 trillion by the current government, which is based on mere projections and may include PSE debt and other external debt and liabilities as well, which are not part of total government debt.

Moreover, the contention of large borrowing from external sources is incorrect. Out of total debt, external debt proportion fell from 21.4 percent of GDP in 2013 to 20.6 percent of GDP in 2017. Against the total external debt, the largest component is multilateral and bilateral concessional debt, which constitutes around 85 percent.

External debt sustainability has increased manifold during the tenure of present government as recent debt sustainability analysis shows that external debt would remain on a downward trend over the medium term and staying well below the risk assessment benchmarks.

Riaz Haq said...

Are we entering into a "jobless" growth phase in South Asia?

By Dr. Selim Raihan, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Executive Director, South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM).

The relationship between economic growth and employment is an important issue in economics discourse. Promotion of inclusive growth also requires economic growth processes to be employment friendly. The measure that captures the employment effect of economic growth is the "employment elasticity" of economic growth, which is the ratio of percentage change in employment to the percentage change in real gross domestic product (GDP).

We have calculated the employment elasticity with respect to the change in real GDP for the South Asian countries for three different periods from 2001 to 2015. There are mixed patterns among the South Asian countries. During 2001 and 2005, Maldives had the largest employment elasticities (1.39) and Sri Lanka had the lowest one (0.08). India, with a share of 75 percent of the total population in South Asia, had the employment elasticity of only 0.38, one of the lowest in South Asia. Two other large countries, Pakistan and Bangladesh, had employment elasticities of 0.70 and 0.77 respectively.

For the period of 2006-2010, India experienced a drastic fall in employment elasticity to only 0.03 despite the fact that the average GDP growth rate of India increased from 6.6 percent (2001-2005) to more than 8 percent (2006-2010). Over these periods, Bangladesh also had a similar experience where employment elasticity declined from 0.77 to 0.4 in the wake of a rising average GDP growth rate from 5 to 6 percent. While Afghanistan, Maldives, and Nepal also experienced a decline, Pakistan and Sri Lanka could increase the elasticities.

Over the recent period between 2011 and 2015, Bangladesh experienced a further fall in the employment elasticity to 0.28, while India's improvement is meagre (from 0.03 to only 0.09). Despite the slower economic growth rates during this period, Afghanistan, Maldives, Nepal, and Pakistan could increase their employment elasticities. Sri Lanka had a further fall in employment elasticity to only 0.14. During this period, India had the least employment elasticity among all South Asian countries.

The aforementioned analysis points to the concern that two major South Asian countries, India and Bangladesh, experienced a substantial reduction in employment elasticities throughout the periods of high economic growth. While during 2001 and 2005, the annual average job creation in Bangladesh and India were 1.6 million and 11.3 million respectively, in 2011-2015, such numbers declined to 1 million and 3.2 million for Bangladesh and India respectively. Most of the other South Asian countries experienced either volatile, or slow or stagnant economic growth, and therefore, despite a rise in employment elasticities, the actual employment generation in these countries had not been substantial. It is also important to mention that while SDG 8 talks about ensuring "decent" jobs for all, South Asian countries are seriously lagging far behind. In most of the South Asian countries, there are persistent employment challenges such as lack of economic diversification, poor working conditions, low productivity and a high degree of informality. This is reflected by the fact that among the top five countries in the world with very high proportion of informal employment in total employment, four are from South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan).

Riaz Haq said...

When 3 million people died in 1943 Bengal famine caused by the British decision to divert food supplies for war, Churchill said it's the Indians' own fault because they breed like rabbits".

Many of his colleagues thought Churchill was driven by a deep loathing of democracy for anyone other than the British and a tiny clique of supposedly superior races. This was clearest in his attitude to India. When Mahatma Gandhi launched his campaign of peaceful resistance, Churchill raged that he "ought to be lain bound hand and foot at the gates of Delhi, and then trampled on by an enormous elephant with the new Viceroy seated on its back." As the resistance swelled, he announced: "I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion." This hatred killed. To give just one, major, example, in 1943 a famine broke out in Bengal, caused – as the Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen has proved – by the imperial policies of the British. Up to 3 million people starved to death while British officials begged Churchill to direct food supplies to the region. He bluntly refused. He raged that it was their own fault for "breeding like rabbits". At other times, he said the plague was "merrily" culling the population.

Skeletal, half-dead people were streaming into the cities and dying on the streets, but Churchill – to the astonishment of his staff – had only jeers for them. This rather undermines the claims that Churchill's imperialism was motivated only by an altruistic desire to elevate the putatively lower races.

Hussein Onyango Obama is unusual among Churchill's victims only in one respect: his story has been rescued from the slipstream of history, because his grandson ended up as President of the US. Churchill believed that Kenya's fertile highlands should be the preserve of the white settlers, and approved the clearing out of the local "blackamoors". He saw the local Kikuyu as "brutish children". When they rebelled under Churchill's post-war premiership, some 150,000 of them were forced at gunpoint into detention camps – later dubbed "Britain's gulag" by Pulitzer-prize winning historian, Professor Caroline Elkins. She studied the detention camps for five years for her remarkable book Britain's Gulag: The Brutal End of Empire in Kenya, explains the tactics adopted under Churchill to crush the local drive for independence. "Electric shock was widely used, as well as cigarettes and fire," she writes. "The screening teams whipped, shot, burned, and mutilated Mau Mau suspects." Hussein Onyango Obama never truly recovered from the torture he endured.

Rks said...

"Where's the Real Population "Disaster in the Making"?" Dear Sir, this is a really shocking article from a person living in the west. You seem to believe more population is good..... absolutely not true.Just look at Pakistan - their GDP has gone below the GDP of Bangladesh. This is definitely not a good indicator.

Riaz Haq said...

2.43 million Pakistanis working in Europe

Out of the total Pakistan’s overseas workforce, 27 per cent have jobs in European countries, revealed statistics shared by Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development with the lawmakers in the Senate.

After Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom caters to the largest overseas Pakistanis followed by Italy, France, Germany and Spain.

In response to question of senator Rozi Khan Kakar, the ministry stated that presently around 9.08 million workforce is living/working abroad, out of which, 2.43 million got job opportunities in around 25 countries of Europe.
UK at the moment has provided jobs to 1.7 million Pakistanis. Saudi Arabia continues to be the favourite destination of Pakistani workforce with 2.6 million workers. United Arab Emirates is at the fourth place in the list with 1.6 million and United States fifth with 900,350.

In Europe, Italy is providing jobs to 119,762 Pakistanis, France 104,000, Germany 90,556, Spain 82,000, Greece 70,002, Norway 38,000 and Netherlands 35,000.

Turkey is providing jobs to only 557 Pakistani workers while China has accommodated 14,355 Pakistani workers. Chile is providing jobs to 760 Pakistanis and Cuba has given job opportunities to 600 Pakistanis. Afghanistan provided jobs to 71,000 Pakistanis and India 10,000. Iran has provided jobs to 7,065 Pakistanis.

Currently, 120,216 Pakistanis have been provided jobs in Malaysia and 65,000 in Thailand.

Libya provided 12,008 Pakistanis jobs, Iraq accommodated 4,709 and Yemen 3,024. Russia gave jobs to 3,560 Pakistanis, stated the statistics.

The reply also contains that 19 Community Welfare Attaches are posted in Pakistan’s missions abroad in the countries having a sizeable concentration of Pakistanis to provide them certain facilities.

These facilities include, issuance of passports, provision of assistance in implementation of Foreign Service Agreement which is made between employee and employer and some others.

Riaz Haq said...

Economists urged to use fertility to predict recessions New paper shows drop in conceptions is evident before economy starts to contract Economists have found evidence of a bump slump before recession strikes Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Mail Save Save to myFT Gemma Tetlow in London 6 HOURS AGO 7 Listen to this article Play audio for this article 00:00 04:04 Experimental feature Report a mispronounced word or Give us your feedback Looking for evidence that a recession is coming? Count how many women are pregnant. That is the conclusion of new US research that suggests economists and investors should pay attention to fertility to understand when a slump is due. A paper published on Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that, ahead of the past three US recessions, the number of conceptions began to fall at least six months before the economy started to contract. While previous research has shown how birth rates track economic cycles, the NBER study is the first to show that fertility declines are a leading indicator for recessions. Daniel Hungerman, economics professor at the University of Notre Dame and one of the report’s authors, said it was “striking” that the drop in pregnancies was evident before the recession that came after the 2007 financial crisis, since it has traditionally been argued that this slump had been hard to predict. “None of the experts saw it coming and in its first few months many business leaders were convinced the economy was doing OK,” he says. In fact the fertility statistics told a different story. The number of conceptions in the US rose slightly between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. But the year-on-year growth rate turned negative in the third quarter of that year, when US stock indices were still hitting then-all-time highs and six months before a similar decline in economic output. Share this graphic The analysis used data on the 109m births in the US between 1989-2016 to examine how fertility rates changed through the last three economic cycles — in the early 1990s, the early 2000s and the late 2000s. It found similar patterns in all three cases. “One way to think about this is that the decision to have a child often reflects one’s level of optimism about the future,” says Kasey Buckles, another Notre-Dame professor and co-author of the study. Research published through the NBER is often conducted by academics at their own universities. The team found that falls in conceptions predicted recessions as well and as far in advance — if not more so — than many commonly used indicators such as consumer confidence, measures of uncertainty, and purchases of big-ticket items such as washing machines and cars. The correlation between conceptions and recessions is not perfect. There have been periods when conceptions have fallen but the economy has not. Professor Buckles says: “It might be difficult in practice to determine whether a one-quarter drop in conceptions is really signalling a future downturn.

Riaz Haq said...

15,000 #babies in #Pakistan, 69,944 in #India, 44,940 in #China, 25,685 in #Nigeria, 15,000 in Pak, 13,256 in #Indonesia, 11,086 in #US, 10,053 in #Congo, 8,428 in #Bangladesh #births on New Year’s day 2019. Source: @UNICEF . #NewYearsDay2019 #population

An estimated 15,000 babies will be born in Pakistan on New Year’s day, accounting for 4 per cent of all babies born today globally, Unicef, the United Nations agency for children announced on Tuesday.

Of the 395,072 babies who will be born around the world on January 1, a quarter will be born in South Asia.

Internationally, half of these births are estimated to take place in eight countries, with Pakistan at fourth place.

Unicef estimates that babies born on Jan 1 in each country will come to:

69,944 in India
44,940 in China
25,685 in Nigeria
15,112 in Pakistan
13,256 in Indonesia
11,086 in the US
10,053 in Congo
8,428 in Bangladesh
It is expected that the year's first baby will be delivered in Fiji in the Pacific, while the United States will deliver the last.

Sydney will welcome an estimated 168 babies; Tokyo, 310; Beijing, 605 babies; Madrid, 166, and New York City, some 317 babies.

Around the world on the first day of 2019, families will welcome countless Alexanders, Ayeshas, Zixuans and Zainabs. But in several countries, many babies will not even be named as they won’t make it past their first day.

In 2017, about 1 million babies died the day they were born, and 2.5m died in just their first month of life.

Among those children, most died from preventable causes such as premature birth, complications during delivery, and infections like sepsis and pneumonia, a violation of their basic right to survival.

"This New Year's Day, let’s all make a resolution to fulfil every right of every child, starting with the right to survive," said Aida Girma, the Unicef representative in Pakistan.

"We can save millions of babies if we invest in training and equipping local health workers so that every newborn is born into a safe pair of hands."

2019 marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, which Unicef will be commemorating with worldwide events throughout the year.

Under the convention, among other things, governments have committed to taking measures to save every child by providing good quality health care.

Over the past three decades, the world has seen remarkable progress in child survival, cutting the number of children worldwide who die before their fifth birthday by more than half.

But there has been slower progress for newborns. Babies dying in the first month account for 47pc of all deaths among children under five.

Unicef’s 'Every Child Alive' campaign calls for immediate investment to deliver affordable, quality health care solutions for every mother and newborn.

These include a steady supply of clean water and electricity at health facilities, the presence of a skilled health attendant during birth, ample supplies and medicines to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth as well empowering adolescent girls and women who can demand better quality of health services.

Riaz Haq said...

The PDHS (Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey) 2017-18 documents a decrease in infant and under-five-years-of-age child mortality showing there have been some improvements in the health system.

Infant mortality was recorded at 62 deaths per 1,000 live births, down from 74% in the last survey of 2012-13. The under-five mortality rate was recorded at 74 deaths per 1,000 live births, down from 89 previously.

The neonatal mortality rate has also decreased in the past five years, from 55 to 42 deaths per 1,000 live births.

The survey shows that 69% of children born in the past five years were delivered by skilled care providers. This is up from the 52 per cent recorded in the 2012-13 survey.

It further noted that 66% of all births took place in a health facility, as compared to 48% five years ago.

Urban women were far more likely to benefit from skilled delivery care than rural women with 84% of births to urban mothers assisted by a skilled provider. Moreover, 81% of babies were delivered in a health facility.

This was 63%and 59% respectively for women in rural areas.

Vaccine coverage rates increased over the past five years from 54% to 66% of the country.

Punjab had the highest coverage rate of 80% followed by AJK at 75%, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) at 68%, Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) at 57 per cent, K-P at 55 per cent, Sindh at 49%, Balochistan at 29% and the erstwhile FATA at 30%.

Balochistan had a marked improvement over the past five years from only 16 per cent of children receiving all basic vaccinations.

Though considerable improvement was made in the indicator, PIPS Deputy Project Director Dr Aysha Sheraz said that the World Health Organisation demands that all children be vaccinated against diseases.

Contrary to the recommendation that children under the age of six months be exclusively breastfed, only 48% of the infants aged six months and below were exclusively breastfed while seven per cent were not breastfed at all.

This, however, was an improvement over the past five years when 38% of children under six months of age were exclusively breastfed while 45% of children were taking breast milk plus supplementary liquids and complementary foods.

Stunted and Wasted

The survey indicated that the nutritional status of children in Pakistan has improved over the last five years.

The percentage of stunted children declined from 45 per cent in 2012-13 to 38% in the 2017-18 survey.

A similar downward trend, from 30% to 23%, was observed for underweight children over the same period.

Children who are wasted also declined from 11% to seven%. Children who are obese remained at three% over this period.


If fertility were to remain constant at current levels, a woman from Pakistan would bear an average of 3.6 children in her lifetime.

The report noted that fertility was higher amongst rural women than among urban women with rural women giving birth to about one more child on average during their reproductive years than urban women.

Malnutrition major cause of fatalities among children

However, the report noted that there has been a steady decline in fertility rates over time. From 5.4 births per woman as reported in the 1990-91 PDHS to 3.6 births per woman in the 2017-18 PDHS — a drop of about two births per woman in almost three decades. However, the decline is minimal in the recent period with 3.8 births per woman recorded in the 2012-13 survey.

Punjab has the lowest fertility rate of 3.4%, Sindh is 3.6, K-P and Balochistan are at four each, ICT at three, formerly Fata areas at 4.8, AJK at 3.7, and at G-B 4.8.

Use of contraceptives has remained stagnant over the past 5 years (34% in the 2017-18 PDHS and 35% in the 2012-13 PDHS). Seventeen per cent of currently married women has an unmet need for family planning services. Moreover, 34%of married women are currently using a contraceptive method.

Riaz Haq said...

#COVID Baby Bust in #America: 500,000 fewer babies expected in 2021 in #US. Businesses that cater to infants are in for a rough couple of years. #Population

300,000 to 500,000: That’s how many fewer babies the think tank Brookings Institution projects will be born in the United States next year. Birth rates in the United States were already steadily declining before the pandemic, but the latest projection is a steep drop from the 3.7 million babies born in 2019, which was 1% lower than in 2018.

The authors of the Brookings Institution report write that stories about birth spikes nine months after blizzards or major blackouts, when couples are cooped up together, tend not to hold up to statistical examination. And in this case, the increased uncertainty caused by the pandemic and its economic fallout is leading prospective parents to put off having kids until conditions are more stable. But the authors expect “that many of these births will not just be delayed — but will never happen.”

It’s not just the United States, either. China’s birth rates are at their lowest levels on record and are expected to drop by 8% this year.

That’s bad news for businesses that cater to infants and new mothers, many of which had already been diversifying their products to hedge against declining birth rates. The Wall Street Journal reports that infant formula maker Reckitt is expanding into adult nutrition, while owners of diaper brands Pampers and Huggies recently launched higher-priced products to make up for a decline in sales volume.

Riaz Haq said...

The New Population Bomb

For the past 200 years, a rapidly rising population has consumed the earth's resources, ruined the environment, and started wars. But humanity is about to trade one population bomb for another, and now scientists and policymakers are waking up to a new reality: The world is on the precipice of decline, and possible extinction.

The twin forces of economic development and women's empowerment are combining to end the age brought on by the Industrial Revolution, in which economic growth was buoyed by a growing population, and vice versa. Since the early 19th century, the rising tide of humanity has provoked many dire predictions: English economist Thomas Malthus argued as early as 1798 that population would grow so fast it would outstrip food production and lead to famine. In 1972, the Club of Rome warned that humanity would reach the "limits to growth" within 100 years, driven by a relentless rise in the global population and environmental pollution.

Today the world's population, which stood as 1 billion in 1800, is now 7.8 billion, and the strain on the planet is clear. But scientists and policymakers are slowly waking up to the new numbers: The population growth rate reached a peak of 2.09% in the late 1960s, but it will fall below 1% in 2023, according to a study by the University of Washington, published last year. In 2017, the growth rate of people aged 15 to 64 -- the working-age population -- fell below 1%. The working-age population has already begun to drop in about a quarter of countries around the world. By 2050, 151 of the world's 195 countries and regions will experience depopulation.

Ultimately, the study forecasts that the global population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and then start declining.

Over the approximately 300,000 years of human history, cold-weather periods and epidemics have caused temporary drops in population. But now humanity will enter a period of sustained decline for the first time ever, according to Hiroshi Kito, a historical demographer and former president of the University of Shizuoka.

East Asia is one region that already faces the world's most acute baby bust -- led by South Korea's total fertility rate of 1.11, Taiwan's 1.15 and Japan's 1.37 average from 2015 to 2020, according to the United Nations publication "World Population Prospects 2019." A country's population begins to drop when fertility falls below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1. This has led to labor shortages, pension fund crises and the obsolescence of old economic models.

Southeast Asia, which has powered global growth as a part of the "Asian Miracle," is also at a critical juncture. Thailand once had a total fertility rate of more than 6, but it is now 1.53, coming closer to Japan. In 2019, the working-age population began to decline, and the economic growth rate was around 2.4%. That is roughly one-third the 7.5% economic growth the country experienced in the 1970s.

Riaz Haq said...

UW report estimates population of nearly 10 billion by 2064, then decline
By Andy Chia The Daily Jul 28, 2020 0
2 min to read

Today, the world population is around 7.7 billion, and overpopulation is still of concern for governments and economists interested in understanding how countries will change due to age structure, which can alter health care, environmental, and economic needs.

Throughout history, there has been alarmism among some that overpopulation would lead to famine, wars, and epidemics.

To address this problem, population models, which are based on fertility, migration, and mortality rates, have become a promising tool for planning a country’s response to fluctuating populations.

According to a report published by the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the global population will continue to rise through the 21st century, peaking at 9.73 billion in 2064 before declining to 8.79 billion in 2100.

“Our findings suggest that the decline in the numbers of working-age adults alone will reduce GDP growth rates that could result in major shifts in global economic power by the century’s end,” the IHME said in a statement.

This decline in population has already led to shifts in certain countries, like Japan, which has seen an increase in labor force participation of 65- to 69-year-olds from 15.3% to 20.8% over a 25-year period.

For other areas, like Sub-Saharan Africa, population growth has remained relatively high, which has increased labor forces and created a higher GDP over time. However, these fertility rates have and will continue to decline, creating an inverted population pyramid that radically alters the way people live in those countries.

“When you have an inverted pyramid, younger people will need to take care of a greater number of older people that retire and will pay for their expenditures,” Dr. Ali Mokdad, health metric sciences professor, said. “The impact will affect economic growth and how well people will be taken care of.”

While the downsides of declines in the population are partially offset by the introduction of automation, these countries will still require other solutions to combat the potential decrease in economic production.

“Immigration can help some countries maintain their working age populations and support economic growth even in the face of declining fertility rates,” said the IHME. “Countries that turn to immigration will need to strategize on how to welcome and support immigrants and embrace growing diversity in their populations, as well as ensure that migrants’ home countries also benefit.”

The decreasing population size and fertility also signify a rising education level in many parts of the world. Contraceptive access and education for women were considered major factors that will lead to declines in fertility rate across all nations

In order to sustain and increase GDP over time, countries need to take into account how women’s rights and education are being supported. Within countries that are trying to encourage fertility, the report cautions any challenges made to reproductive freedoms and rights.

“Education for women means not only a better quality of life for herself, but her family,” Mokdad said. “We could do more to support the rights of women to benefit everyone.”

Riaz Haq said...

#China's #birth rate in alarming decline. Could it impact #Chinese #economic growth rate? Could China get old before it gets rich? Is #India better placed than China in terms of #demographics? #population #economy #fertility

A social media post in early March claiming that India had become the world’s most populous country created a storm in China.
The post claimed India’s population had hit 1.415 billion and was widely shared on social media, adding to rocky relations between Beijing and New Delhi and concerns over domestic growth hurdles in China, while also fuelling discussions about a host of social issues.
Demographic issues have been a hot topic in China since last year, when the once-a-decade census found the national fertility rate was alarmingly low.

Riaz Haq said...

World’s Population Projected to Reach 8 Billion Today
Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost nine years since 1990

The population of the planet is set to hit eight billion Tuesday, according to projections from the United Nations that forecast the number will grow to 8.5 billion by 2030 as life expectancy rises.

Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost nine years since 1990, the U.N.’s population division said, though it fell to 71.0 years in 2021 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the least developed nations, life expectancy lagged behind the global average by seven years in 2021, driven by high levels of maternal and child mortality, violence, conflict and AIDS.

Since the 1960s, when the global number of people first hit three billion, it has taken a little over a decade to cross each new billion-person milestone. The U.N.’s latest projection is that the eight billionth living person will be born on Nov. 15.

The rate of population expansion will only continue to rise if fertility rates remain high, the U.N. said. In 2021, the average fertility worldwide stood at 2.3 births a woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about five births a woman in 1950, it said. In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1% a year for the first time since 1950.

Two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where fertility is below 2.1 births a woman, the U.N. said, roughly the level required for a steady-state population in the long term in situations where mortality is low.

The U.N. predicts that the global population will peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s and remain around that level until the start of the next century. Another forecast has it peaking at 9.67 billion in 2070, before a slow decline.

The most populous regions are in Asia, the U.N. said, with China and India—each more than 1.4 billion strong—the main contributors to the populace. India’s population is expected to surpass China’s at some point next year, according to the U.N.

Beyond the balance of births and deaths, a significant driver of population growth is immigration. Over the next few decades, the U.N. forecasts, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan population growing at annual rate of 1.9pc: UN

As the world population has reached eight billion, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) says population is growing in Pakistan at an average annual rate of 1.9 per cent, and nearly 3.6 children are born to a woman on average in the country.

UNFPA said in a press release issued here on Monday that Pakistan is among the eight countries where more than half of the increase in global population leading up to 2050 will be concentrated. The other countries are DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, the Philippines and Tanzania.

According to UNFPA, half of the population that made up the increase from seven billion in 2011 to eight billion now is from Asia.

It says that eight billion population figure is a milestone for humanity and a moment of reflection. It is time for Pakistan to take stock of the situation and act on the issue.

The UN body says that merely focusing on numbers alone may not present the complete picture. It is time to look beyond the numbers and keep counting for evidence-based decisions. The solution is not more or fewer people but more on equal access to opportunities for the people.

“The power of choice can move demographic and development indicators naturally in the right direction. Rights-based family planning campaign that involves service, advocacy, and social norm components can change the scene to show economic development in terms of levels of welfare and ensure gifted natural resources to sustain for a longer time,” UNFPA Representative in Pakistan, Dr Luay Shabaneh, said.

Pakistan’s national population narrative, based on three interlinked principles of rights, responsibilities and balance, has set the direction suitable for the country.

The UNFPA says that family planning should be driven by informed choice and underlines the state’s responsibility to fulfil all citizens’ rights to information and services they need to make and act on informed choices.

Pakistan is among a few countries that have a detailed population policy and programme roadmaps at federal and provincial levels.

It is time, the UNFPA says, to translate these plans into actions and all stakeholders must join hands to accelerate the implementation of these policies and programmes.

Although the global family of eight billion has come a long way in terms of welfare and development with better health systems, the progress has not been enjoyed equally.

Socioeconomic inequalities are widespread across provinces and regions. Access to health care, rights, and quality of life vary among various population groups.

The universal lesson is that societies that invest in their people, in their rights and choices, take on the road to the prosperity and peace everyone wants and deserves.

Riaz Haq said...

World population touches 8 billion, India being largest contributor
India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by next year

The world added a billion people in the last 12 years. UNFPA said that as the world adds the next billion to its tally of inhabitants, China’s contribution will be negative.

“India, the largest contributor to the 8 billion (177 million) will surpass China, which was the second largest contributor (73 million) and whose contribution to the next billion will be negative, as the world's most populous nation by 2023,” UNFPA said.

The UN said that it took about 12 years for the world population to grow from 7 to 8 billion, but the next billion is expected to take about 14.5 years (2037), reflecting the slowdown in global growth.

World population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and is expected to remain at that level until 2100.

For the increase from 7 to 8 billion, around 70 per cent of the added population was in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

For the increase from 8 to 9 billion, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90 per cent of global growth, the UN said.

Between now and 2050, the global increase in the population under the age 65 will occur entirely in low income and lower-middle-income countries, since population growth in high-income and upper-middle income countries will occur only among those aged 65 or more, it said.

The World Population Prospects 2022, released in July this year said that India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared with China’s 1.426 billion.

India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, ahead of China’s 1.317 billion people by the middle of the century.

According to UNFPA estimates, 68 per cent of India’s population is between 15-64 years old in 2022, while people aged 65 and older were seven per cent of the population.

The report had said that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020.

The world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.

China is expected to experience an absolute decline in its population as early as 2023, the report had said.

At the launch of the report in July, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin had said that countries where population growth has slowed must prepare for an increasing proportion of older persons and, in more extreme cases, a decreasing population size.

“China provides a clear example. With the rapid ageing of its population due to the combined effects of very low fertility and increasing life expectancy, growth of China’s total population is slowing down, a trend that is likely to continue in the coming decades," Liu said.

The WHO pointed out that China has one of the fastest growing ageing populations in the world.

“The population of people over 60 years in China is projected to reach 28 per cent by 2040, due to longer life expectancy and declining fertility rates," the WHO said.

In China, by 2019, there were 254 million older people aged 60 and over, and 176 million older people aged 65 and over.

In 2022, the two most populous regions were both in Asia: Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people (29 per cent of the global population) and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion (26 per cent).

China and India, with more than 1.4 billion each, accounted for most of the population in these two regions.

More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

Countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050, the report added.

Riaz Haq said...

Global population projected to exceed 8 billion in 2022; half live in just seven countries

China has the world’s largest population (1.426 billion), but India (1.417 billion) is expected to claim this title next year. The next five most populous nations – the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Brazil – together have fewer people than India or China. In fact, China’s population is greater than the entire population of Europe (744 million) or the Americas (1.04 billion) and roughly equivalent to that of all nations in Africa (1.427 billion).

As recently as 2015, half the world’s population was concentrated in just six countries – the same as above, with the exception of Nigeria, which was then the seventh most populous country and has since passed Brazil to move into sixth place. Recent population growth, however, has been faster in the rest of the world than in these nations, meaning that the top six now hold slightly less than half (49%) of the world’s people. Including Brazil’s 215 million people puts the world’s seven most populous countries at 51.7% of the global population.

In the UN’s “medium” scenario for future population growth – its middle-of-the-road estimate – the global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Growth is expected to be concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 29% of all the world’s births happened last year. The 2021 total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa, 4.6 births per woman, is double the global average of 2.3 births per woman and triple the average in Europe and Northern America (1.5) and in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (also 1.5).

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s population grows at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent, more than two times (237 per cent) of the global annual rate of 0.8 per cent in 2022. Pakistan’s fertility rate stands at 3.6, exceeding the global rate by 157 per cent. This puts enormous pressure on natural resources, the economy, and consequently, the social fabric in the country, as well as the ability of the state to enable all people to enjoy their rights entitled in the constitution and agreed international treaties, including ICPD25 and FP 2030 commitments.

Diving deeper into the quality of life, data reveals that the population of the planet lives longer than Pakistanis; life expectancy stood at 73 years, more than seven years of the average life expectancy in Pakistan. As a result of the decline in fertility and increased life expectancy due to good health systems and care, nations are aging faster. Globally, about 10 per cent of the population is above 65 years compared with 4.4 per cent of Pakistanis who die at an earlier pace. Finally, migration characterised global population dynamics in the last decade. About 281 million people (3.5 per cent) live outside their country of birth compared with a slightly higher rate in Pakistan, where 9 million or about 4 per cent, live outside the country.

Having the above-mentioned statistical outlook, one can imagine the burden of population growth on the economy, welfare and future generations. This becomes more challenging if we consider pandemics, climate change and existing poverty levels. More so, the current economic forecast impacting global food security accompanied by increasing energy prices and other essential goods and services.

In these concerning circumstances, one logically asks what is next and what can/should be done. While there is no obvious prescription for this situation, pathways are clear. In fact, history has a rich institutional memory of successes and failures.

Focusing on the number of Pakistan’s population alone distracts us from the real challenge. The demographic trend is not solely bad or good, but building demographic resilience is critical to sustainable development. The reproductive health and rights of women and girls are key enablers in building societies that thrive amid demographic changes. Across Pakistan, there are stark differences in people’s lifespans, access to healthcare, rights and quality of life. Issues like climate change and unequal access to healthcare disproportionately impact the most vulnerable, including women and girls.

This is a hallmark of demographic resilience that involves the ability to understand and anticipate demographic trends and empowers federal and provincial governments to provide their citizens with the skills, tools and opportunities they need to thrive. Population growth can reflect lower mortality rates and increased fertility because of health, education and human rights achievements. The solution is not more or fewer people but more and equal access to opportunities for these people. Pakistan can harness opportunities for economic growth in the expanding population by investing in education and health.

To improve the quality of life in the context of the global next billion people, Pakistan must strive to ensure all people have access to family planning services such as contraceptives, accompanied by quality maternal healthcare services and accurate and easily accessible information about their sexual and reproductive health and rights.

Riaz Haq said...

World Population by Country

# Country (or dependency) Population
(2020) Yearly
Change Net
Change Density
(P/Km²) Land Area
(Km²) Migrants
(net) Fert.
Rate Med.
Age Urban
Pop % World
1 China 1,439,323,776 0.39 % 5,540,090 153 9,388,211 -348,399 1.69 38 60.8 % 18.5 %
2 India 1,380,004,385 0.99 % 13,586,631 464 2,973,190 -532,687 2.2402 28 35 % 17.7 %
3 United States 331,002,651 0.59 % 1,937,734 36 9,147,420 954,806 1.7764 38 82.8 % 4.2 %
4 Indonesia 273,523,615 1.07 % 2,898,047 151 1,811,570 -98,955 2.3195 30 56.4 % 3.5 %
5 Pakistan 220,892,340 2 % 4,327,022 287 770,880 -233,379 3.55 23 35.1 % 2.8 %
6 Brazil 212,559,417 0.72 % 1,509,890 25 8,358,140 21,200 1.74 33 87.6 % 2.7 %
7 Nigeria 206,139,589 2.58 % 5,175,990 226 910,770 -60,000 5.4168 18 52 % 2.6 %
8 Bangladesh 164,689,383 1.01 % 1,643,222 1,265 130,170 -369,501 2.052 28 39.4 % 2.1 %
9 Russia 145,934,462 0.04 % 62,206 9 16,376,870 182,456 1.8205 40 73.7 % 1.9 %
10 Mexico 128,932,753 1.06 % 1,357,224 66 1,943,950 -60,000 2.14 29 83.8 % 1.7 %

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan Demographic Survey 2020

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the summary measures of current fertility level. It indicates the number of
children to be born to a woman during her reproductive span of life, if she were to pass through all her
childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. The advantage of this
measure is that it is less influenced by the age structure of the population. TFR is the most useful
indicator of fertility because it gives the best pictures of how many children women are currently
having. The TFR depicted by the PDS 2020, PDHS 2017-18 and PSLM- 2018-19 is given in Table No.
3.2. TFR in urban areas is lower than that in rural areas in all surveys.


Life Expectancy
The Life Expectancy at birth is a summary measure Index that is obtained from a life table. It shows the
average number of years that persons can expect to live from the time of birth if they experience
currently prevailing age specific death rates throughout their life. The expectation of life at birth is
independent of the age structure of a population and therefore provides a more reliable index for
international comparisons of the level of mortality and social and economic condition of a country. The
Life Table of PDS-2020 for the year 2020 depicts that the expectancy of life at birth in Pakistan is 65
years; it is 64.5 for males and 65.5 for females. The life expectancy increases for age 1-4 both for males
and females i.e., 70.6 and 72 respectively and 71.3 overall.


Infant Mortality Rate has been declining in
Pakistan but it is still high. Infant Mortality Rates are much higher in rural areas 59 than in urban areas
50, where better Neo-Natal and Post-Natal facilities are available. Male Infant Mortality Rate is 58
which is higher than female Infant Mortality Rate 55 in all areas.
Table 3.8: Infant Mortality Rate PDHS 2017-18, PSLM-2018-19 and PDS-2020
Table 3.9: Infant Mortality Rate by Urban-Rural Residence and Sex PDS-2020
Neo-Natal and Post-Neo-Natal Mortality Rates
Mortality during the first year of life is divided into two main period’s i.e. Neo-natal Mortality
occurring within the first month and, Post-Neonatal Mortality occurring during the remaining 11
months. This distinction is useful as the causes as well as the levels of mortality are quite different in
these two periods. Table 3.10 shows that mortality within the first month after birth is very high in
2020. Like Crude Death Rates and Infant Mortality Rates, the PDS-2020 data indicates that the NeoNatal Mortality in rural areas is higher than in the urban areas.
Table 3.10: Neo-Natal and Post Neo-Natal Mortality Rates PDHS 2018-19 and PDS-2020
Area PDHS-2017-18 PSLM-2018-19 PDS-2020(2018-20)
Pakistan 62 60 56