|Indian Prime Minister Modi with NSA Ajit Doval|
All indications are that these attacks are part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.
Another motivation for such attacks appears to be sabotage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is strongly opposed by the Modi government in New Delhi.
On the one hand, the Modi government and its allies in Kabul are funding the Teheek--e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Baloch insurgent groups, MQM militants and other groups to terrorize Pakistanis. On the other hand, they are accusing Pakistani government of sponsoring terror in Afghanistan and Kashmir and demanding action against the Kashmiri support groups headed by Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar and the Haqqanis.
It appears that the "Doval Doctrine", named after India's hawkish national security advisor Ajit Doval, is designed to stretch Pakistan Army so thin that it finally collapses and paves the way for India to dominate Pakistan. The Doval Doctrine is fully supported by the Tajik-dominated government in Kabul.
Pakistan's Response to Pressure:
Will foreign pressure on Pakistan work? Will Pakistan do the bidding of foreign governments to relieve the pressure being ratcheted up through major terrorist attacks on its soil? To answer this question, let us look at the following two quotes:
1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009
2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011
Message to Foreign Governments:
Leaders in Kabul, New Delhi and Washington need to heed the words of Ambassador Anne Patterson and Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy as they pursue their policy of using violence to put pressure on Pakistanis.
Those ratcheting up the pressure on Pakistan need to understand that the Pakistanis have faced much bigger traumas in the past with the break-up of the country by Indian sponsorship of terror followed by the Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971.
The Pakistanis have lost over 60,000 lives to terror in the last decade. Their strength and resilience in the face of extreme adversity is well-tested.
The Pakistanis are betting that the end-game in Afghanistan is near with the continuing drawdown of the American forces. The power vacuum left by the Americans will most likely be filled by either the Afghan Taliban or ISIS.
Given the choice between the Afghan Taliban and ISIS, it's almost certain that that the Americans and the Pakistanis would prefer the Afghan Taliban over ISIS to bring some semblance of stability there.
The tragic Quetta Police Academy mass-casualty terror attack is part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar. While Pakistan will intensify its crackdown on terrorists who are attacking Pakistanis, the Pakistani establishment will not yield to foreign pressure. The Pakistanis believe that the inevitable return of the Afghan Taliban (not Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) in Afghanistan after US troops exit will mean the end of the Indian influence there. This will deny the Indian intelligence agency RAW the ability to use proxies like TTP and other groups to launch terror attacks in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan.
Here's a video discussion on the subject:
Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?
India's Pakistan Obsession
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
RK Yadav's Mission RAW
Planted Stories in Indian Media
India's Israel Envy
India: Pakistan did it.
Ok, But If Pakistan is bombing in India, then who is bombing in Pak?
In my opinion India doesn't want to split Pakistan however make Pakistan unlivable country or an investment friendly destination for foreign investments. The image Pakistan is trying to build among international community is being tarnished one terrorist incident at a time.
Annon said "...make Pakistan unlivable country or an investment friendly destination for foreign investments.".
Agreed, but it is not only Pakistan, India does not want any country in the neighborhood to prosper. Existence of any prosperous country in the neighborhood would give credibility to its 18+ separatist movements.
[Agreed, but it is not only Pakistan, India does not want any country in the neighborhood to prosper. Existence of any prosperous country in the neighborhood would give credibility to its 18+ separatist movements.]
The above neo-colonial imperialist propaganda is dogma only in Pakistan but elsewhere the consensus view is much different. Sadly in Pakistan, such insecurity has become so pervasive that it prevents it's civilian leaders to govern the country effectively.
The answer is simple: Authors and publishers of books about Pakistan know where the money is. It's in India where the book sales are rising rapidly in the midst of continuing global decline. Strong profit motive drives them to write what Indians want to read. Those, like Professor Wendy Doniger of University of Chicago, who ignore this reality are punished by having their books withdrawn and pulped. No publisher wants to take this risk now. And authors who wish to get published have to understand it too.
India's English language book market is the world's third largest, behind that of the United States at the top and of the United Kingdom at number 2. It is the fastest growing market today which will make India the world's number 1 market in the next ten years. It could happen sooner if the book sales in the US and the UK decline faster or those in India grow more rapidly than they are already.
#Pakistan accuses 8 #Indian diplomats, including RAW station chief in #Islamabad, of spying, #terrorism http://reut.rs/2fH1Fen via @Reuters
Pakistan on Thursday named eight Indian diplomats it accuses of espionage and terrorism, as tension mounted between the nuclear-armed rivals following days of artillery duels and skirmishes on the border dividing the disputed Kashmir region.
The foreign ministry said six Indian embassy staff worked for New Delhi's Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency, while two were operatives for the Intelligence Bureau agency. Their names were leaked to Pakistani media overnight.
In response, India said it "completely rejected the baseless and unsubstantiated allegations" leveled by Pakistan against officials at its high commission in Islamabad.
Rajesh Kumar Agnihotri, a commercial counselor, was named by the Pakistan foreign ministry as RAW's station chief in Islamabad.
The foreign ministry statement gave an eight-point list of the diplomats' espionage activities.
It accused them of fuelling instability in Pakistan's Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, as well as sabotaging its most vital economic project, the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), involving transport and energy infrastructure projects to link China with Pakistan's coast on the Arabian Sea.
They were also accused of liaising with factions of the Pakistani Taliban and of working to damage Pakistan's relations with western neighbor Afghanistan.
It was not immediately clear if the diplomats would be expelled by Pakistan or withdrawn by India, which condemned the publication of their names and images and called on Pakistan to ensure their safety.
Last week, India and Pakistan both expelled one diplomat from each other's embassies, accusing them of spying.
The foreign ministry also said Pakistan had withdrawn six diplomats from its mission in India after Indian media reported they had been involved in spying.
Vikas Swarup, spokesman of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, told a news briefing that Islamabad had withdrawn its diplomats after some were named by the Pakistani embassy worker that it had expelled last week.
The allegations against the Indian diplomats in Islamabad were "an afterthought and a crude attempt to target these officials for no fault of their own", said Swarup, adding that Pakistan's actions added to security risks in the region.
India summoned the Pakistani deputy high commissioner on Wednesday to express its "grave concern and strong protest" over the denouncement of its diplomats in Islamabad.
On the same day, the press wing of Pakistan's military said India had violated a 2003 ceasefire in Kashmir 178 times this year, killing 19 civilians.
Dr. Riaz, the world or the so called international community is busy with problems in mainly Middle East, eastern Ukraine and South China Sea. It doesn't have time to look into Kashmir issue. China is the only one interested in Pakistans welfare and that too for economic reasons ie to find additional viable and economical routes to import and export its products. India and Pakistan can spend all their money and time trying to lobby for Kashmir but most of the countries including Saudi Arabia are only giving lip service. It's time for both countries to set their priorities right which is poverty alleviation and leave kashmir and Kashmiris for the time being.
#Pakistan PM, army chief watch military drill "Strike of Thunder" at #India border. #Bhawalpur #Rajasthan #Kashmir
The drill, in the Khairpur Tamiwali desert area near the district or Bahawalpur, came three days after Indian fire in Kashmir killed seven Pakistani soldiers in a new escalation between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
The two sides have traded fire repeatedly in recent weeks across the Line of Control, which divides the Himalayan region into India- and Pakistani-controlled zones. Both Pakistan and India claim Kashmir in its entirety.
Pakistan’s army chief has less than two weeks before retirement after his three-year term. The government has not yet named his successor.
In a speech at the drill, Pakistan’s prime minister paid a glowing tribute to the armed forces and reiterated his government’s commitment to fighting terrorism.
Nawaz Sharif also issued a veiled warning to India, saying that Pakistan would deliver a “befitting response” to any hostile enemy action.
Gen (R) David H. Petraeus' remarks on security challenges facing the new US administration at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British security think tank in London:
"There's no question there's communication between the ISI and various militant groups in FATA and Balochistan (Haqqanis, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc) but some of it you'd do anyway as an intelligence service.....there may be some degree of accommodation that is forced on them (Pakistanis) because of the limits of their (Pakistan's) forces.... I looked very very hard then (as US commander in Afghanistan) and again CIA director at the nature of the relationship between the various (militant) groups in FATA and Baluchistan and the Pakistan Army and the ISI and I was never convinced of what certain journalists have alleged (about ISI support of militant groups in FATA).... I have talked to them (journalists) asked them what their sources are and I have not been able to come to grips with that based on what I know from these different positions".
Some people say Pakistan is a frenemy...it is just very very difficult to pin down (blame on Pakistan) and it's even more difficult to figure out how to exert leverage that in a meaningful way resolves the issue There was a period when we cut off all assistance (to Pakistan) and ties and held up F-16s that we were supposed to deliver for a while and that did not help our influence there (in Pakistan). It's a very very tough situation and it may be among the top two or three challenges for the new administration right up there with Syria".
Dangerous Doval Doctrine: #Balochistan vs #Kashmir | Frontline. #India #Pakistan #Modi #BJP http://www.frontline.in/the-nation/balochistan-vs-kashmir/article9373742.ece … e pursuit of a tit-for-tat diplomacy will not get India anywhere because Balochistan and Kashmir are not on a par, legally and politically. The time has come for India to drop the Baloch card and work for the settlement of Kashmir. By A.G. NOORANI
“PAKISTAN’s vulnerabilities are many times higher than us [sic]. Once they know that India has shifted gear from defensive mode to defensive-offence, they will find that it is unaffordable for them. You may do one Mumbai, you may lose Balochistan,” Ajit Doval, now Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Security Adviser, said at the 10th Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture at Sastra University, Thanjavur, on February 21, 2014. This was three months before he became NSA and the Manmohan Singh government was still in power.
The shock this Doval Doctrine of “defensive-offence” induced precluded any cool analysis of its implications (see the writer’s “The Doval doctrine”, Frontline, November 13, 2015). Doval was advocating a diplomacy of tit for tat with full knowledge of the perils it entailed, not least among them being the risk of matters getting out of hand in the retaliatory ladder of escalation. This becomes apparent when one moves from the doctrine to the specific, Balochistan.
Whoever perpetrated the Mumbai attacks committed a dastardly crime. But at no time did India ever allege that Pakistan’s top leaders were complicit in it. Is it not a wholly disproportionate retaliation to secure the detachment of one of Pakistan’s four provinces? Would its leaders, civil and military, sit back with folded hands when this is being attempted? And the Great Powers in the “Security Council”, especially China, which now has a stake in Balolchistan? And, pray, how does Doval propose to detach Balochistan? By military invasion? Far from it. Our “intelligence commando” has other plans whose elements are no secret. He proposes to do this by fomenting subversion through covert action. He could not possibly have made the claim (“you may lose Balochistan”) unless India had acquired significant “assets” there—as they are called in the idiom of covert operations—over the years. They cannot be acquired instantly. It is these existing assets, acquired, trained and funded over the years, which emboldened Doval to speak as confidently as he did.
#India's #Modi Quietly Okays #Balochistan Specialist's Appointment as Next #RAW Chief to Wage #Terror in #Pakistan http://defencenews.in/article.aspx?id=149455 …
From Indian Defense News dated Dec 5, 2016
Special Director of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency. The 1981-batch Madhya Pradesh cadre IPS officer’s domain of expertise is considered to be Balochistan, counter-terrorism and Islamic affairs. He also has a vast experience on Pakistan and Afghanistan. He has served in key capitals, including London and Frankfurt and has also handled SAARC and Europe desks. The post of the RAW chief is falling vacant on January 31, 2017, with the incumbent retiring after a two-year stint. The RAW chief has a fixed tenure of two years unless the government extends the service length or the appointee. Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Special Director A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency.
Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Special Director A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency. He is considered to be an expert in Balochistan affairs.
In his Independence Day speech this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said, “I want to express my gratitude to the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and PoK for the way they whole-heartedly thanked me.... People of a distant land I haven’t even seen....When they thank the Indian PM, it’s an honour for the 125 crore people of the country...”
Implicit in the statement was a veiled threat to the Pak political and military leadership that India too can needle them for the state-sponsored atrocities in these areas held by Islamabad and target that country’s unity and integrity. The PM’s statement came in the backdrop of brazen Pak stance to dedicate its Independence Day to freedom of Kashmir and stoking violence in J&K following Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani’s death. This was the first time an Indian PM raised the Balochistan issue.
Dhasmana is also known to enjoy National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s confidence. He will replace present RAW chief Rajinder Khanna.
India has been pussyfooting on human rights violations in Balochistan though Pakistan has been exploiting the ‘K’ word to the hilt at different international fora.
Officials close to Dhasmana said he is a go-getter and has an extensive network in the region. Through his vast experience and elaborate asset base in the region, he was able to stall the construction of Gwadar port by about six years, a senior agency said.
Meanwhile, the race for the top post in another key covert agency Intelligence Bureau (IB) is also gaining pace with the tenure of current Director Dineshwar Sharma ending on December 31. Three contenders—Special Directors SK Sinha and Rajiv Jain and Mumbai Police Commissioner Dattatray Palsalgikar—are in the fray.
Can #Pakistan’s Banned Organizations Rejoin the Mainstream? #JuD #JeM #ASWJ @Diplomat_APAC http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/can-pakistans-banned-organizations-rejoin-the-mainstream/
“Though Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) is not listed as a political organization but it is a political entity, we want to register JuD as a political party. We played a positive role in the politics and we want to continue it,” said Hafiz Masood in Islamabad on March 27 this year.
Masood, brother of JuD chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, was speaking in a closed-door session on “Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Different Brands of Militants.” The discussion, organized by the think tank Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), centered on the reintegration of banned outfits like Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), and Ahle-Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ).
Later, during a press briefing on April 26, the spokesman of the Pakistan Army, Major General Asif Ghafour, released a confessional video statement from Ehsanullah Ehsan, the former spokesman of the banned Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a splinter group of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
In April last year, he handed over two deradicalization plans to Nawaz Sharif, prime minister of Pakistan. The first proposal was to be implemented through the Ministry of Interior (MoI) and the other was under the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA). There was a role assigned to at least six different government departments in the proposed plan.
The proposal was to segregate different kinds of extremist on the basis of their history and nature of involvement in militancy. Some individuals are associated with the welfare work of banned outfits and some are part of the propaganda arm, while others actually take up arms against the state. Therefore, each individual would be reviewed according to his level of involvement in militant activities.
Pakistan is not the only country trying to develop a mechanism to rehabilitate militants. Deradicalization plans for repentant militants already exist in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Yemen, Morocco, and Jordan adopted such plans much earlier. Pakistan has another significant example: neighboring Afghanistan, where Hezb-i-Islami has announced it will shun violence and join mainstream politics in the country. The United Nations lifted its ban on the Hezb-i-Islami chief, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, in February this year. The historic move was a result of a deal that was brokered between the Afghan government and Hekmatyar.
Pakistan is also running at least two deredicalization centers – Sabaon and Mashal – in the Sawat area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Explaining the rationale of new proposed deredicalization program, retired Lt. Gen. Amjad Shoaib said that in January 2004, under orders from General (retd.) and then-President Pervez Musharraf, camps of banned outfits were dismantled and the militants were flushed out. It was a big blunder; for two years these men had been motivated and trained to wage jihad and then suddenly they were asked to vacate the area. “Those elements perceived that Pakistan betrayed the cause of Kashmir and [that’s when] Punjabi Taliban was formed. At that time nobody thought of starting a deradicalization program,” Shoaib explained.
Shuja Nawaz, a fellow at the Washington, DC-based South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council does not see rapid movement toward these goals given the lack of careful consideration of the deradicalization and de-weaponizing of Pakistani society. He believes that ties between these shadowy jihadi groups and the political system prevent firm actions. Nawaz, who author of the book Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within, says, “Mainstreaming can only occur when wider actions alter the school systems and curricula and to remove the vestiges of Ziaist [referring to General Zia-ul-Haq] policies and systems in both the civil and military are effected. That needs political gumption, a rare commodity in Pakistan today.”
Sour grapes India: Pakistan has clearly won in Afghanistan
September 21, 2021, 2:52 PM IST
By Sunil Sharan in Strategic Insights, India, World, TOI
Much hand-wringing and hair-pulling is going on in India over Pakistan’s “1971” moment. Actually Pakistan has had two 1971 moments. Once when they ejected the Soviets from Afghanistan in 1989, and now.
The fight then is clear. It is white Christian nations versus brown Muslim nations. The US has been involved in the following campaigns after 9/11: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. All Muslim nations. It has met defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq, and been dealt a bruising blow in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Estimate of Muslim lives lost from war and displacement caused by war since 9/11 vary between five and ten million.
Much is being made of Blinken’s statement that the US would like to see Pakistan evolve the way it, the US, wishes. This is just wishful thinking. When the Americans were all over Afghanistan (and Pakistan), they could not force the Pakistanis to do what they wanted to do. Now that they have hightailed out of Afghanistan, are we expected to believe that the US has more leverage over Pakistan now than before?
Other than the US, the country that has clearly lost out in Afghanistan is India. For 20 years, India has poured over $3 billion in aid and reconstruction into Afghanistan, all of which, in a jiffy, has just landed in the hands of the Taliban. Pakistan has now become without doubt emboldened to launch a second jihad to liberate Kashmir from India. India cannot be naïve and altruistic anymore. It has to ramp up support for Pakistan’s Baloch rebels as well as instigate the Taliban in amalgamating Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province into Afghanistan, a long-cherished dream of its.
India just cannot afford to be a mute and idle spectator in the AfPak region. Its very survival is at risk. Pakistan has often accused India of fomenting terrorism in its own territory through the Pakistani Taliban. But think about this. The Pakistani Taliban wants to impose sharia in Pakistan, just as it’s been now imposed in Afghanistan.
But Pakistan’s Muslims are Hinduized. They don’t want sharia, just as India doesn’t want an enormous territory on its western flank under sharia. It is in India’s interest that Pakistan stays Hinduized. Why then would India support the Pakistani Taliban?
#Pakistan’s #Taliban problem is #America’s too. It raises the possibility that the #US could target #TTP commanders found operating in #Afghanistan – much as it killed #AlQaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with a #drone strike in #Kabul in September.
When the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan after 20 years in the country, it did so on a promise that the Taliban once back in government would provide no haven for terrorist groups.
The Taliban pledge covered not only al Qaeda – the terror group whose presence in the country led to the US invasion in 2001 – but also the Taliban’s ideological twin next door, the Pakistani Taliban or TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan).
But the recent break down of an already shaky year-long ceasefire in neighboring Pakistan between the TTP and Islamabad raises some troubling questions over whether that promise will hold.
The end of the ceasefire in Pakistan threatens not only escalating violence in that country but potentially an increase in cross-border tensions between the Afghan and Pakistani governments.
And it is already putting links between the Afghan Taliban and its Pakistani counterpart under the spotlight.
As recently as spring last year Pakistani Taliban leader Noor Wali Mehsud told CNN that in return for helping to push the US out of Kabul his group would expect support from the Afghan Taliban in its own fight.
Like their erstwhile brothers in arms in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban want to overthrow their country’s government and impose their own strict Islamic code.
In an exclusive interview with CNN this week, Mehsud blamed the ceasefire’s breakdown on Islamabad, saying it “violated the ceasefire and martyred tens of our comrades and arrested tens of them.”
But he was more guarded when asked directly whether the Afghan Taliban was now helping his group as he had once hoped.
His answer: “We are fighting Pakistan’s war from within the territory of Pakistan; using Pakistani soil. We have the ability to fight for many more decades with the weapons and spirit of liberation that exist in the soil of Pakistan.”
Those words should be of concern not only to Islamabad, but Washington too.
The FBI has been tracking the TTP for at least a decade and a half, long before they radicalized and trained Faisal Shazad for his brazen attack setting fire to a vehicle in New York’s Times Square in 2010.
Following the Times Square attack the TTP was designated a terrorist organization and is still considered a threat to US interests.
And while Islamabad is keen to play down the threat from the group – Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah says Pakistan can “fully” control conflict with the TTP and describes conversations with the TTP during the ceasefire as talks “which are held in a state of war” – its control of the situation pivots on the TTP remaining within Pakistan’s borders.
There are growing questions about the TTP’s reach and Islamabad’s perception of the situation does not match Mehsud’s.
In April this year, the Pakistani military struck targets in Afghanistan warning that “terrorists are using Afghan soil with impunity to carry out activities inside Pakistan.”
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