|Indian Prime Minister Modi with NSA Ajit Doval
All indications are that these attacks are part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.
Another motivation for such attacks appears to be sabotage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is strongly opposed by the Modi government in New Delhi.
On the one hand, the Modi government and its allies in Kabul are funding the Teheek--e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Baloch insurgent groups, MQM militants and other groups to terrorize Pakistanis. On the other hand, they are accusing Pakistani government of sponsoring terror in Afghanistan and Kashmir and demanding action against the Kashmiri support groups headed by Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar and the Haqqanis.
It appears that the "Doval Doctrine", named after India's hawkish national security advisor Ajit Doval, is designed to stretch Pakistan Army so thin that it finally collapses and paves the way for India to dominate Pakistan. The Doval Doctrine is fully supported by the Tajik-dominated government in Kabul.
Pakistan's Response to Pressure:
Will foreign pressure on Pakistan work? Will Pakistan do the bidding of foreign governments to relieve the pressure being ratcheted up through major terrorist attacks on its soil? To answer this question, let us look at the following two quotes:
1. "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009
2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West." Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011
Message to Foreign Governments:
Leaders in Kabul, New Delhi and Washington need to heed the words of Ambassador Anne Patterson and Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy as they pursue their policy of using violence to put pressure on Pakistanis.
Those ratcheting up the pressure on Pakistan need to understand that the Pakistanis have faced much bigger traumas in the past with the break-up of the country by Indian sponsorship of terror followed by the Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971.
The Pakistanis have lost over 60,000 lives to terror in the last decade. Their strength and resilience in the face of extreme adversity is well-tested.
The Pakistanis are betting that the end-game in Afghanistan is near with the continuing drawdown of the American forces. The power vacuum left by the Americans will most likely be filled by either the Afghan Taliban or ISIS.
Given the choice between the Afghan Taliban and ISIS, it's almost certain that that the Americans and the Pakistanis would prefer the Afghan Taliban over ISIS to bring some semblance of stability there.
The tragic Quetta Police Academy mass-casualty terror attack is part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar. While Pakistan will intensify its crackdown on terrorists who are attacking Pakistanis, the Pakistani establishment will not yield to foreign pressure. The Pakistanis believe that the inevitable return of the Afghan Taliban (not Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) in Afghanistan after US troops exit will mean the end of the Indian influence there. This will deny the Indian intelligence agency RAW the ability to use proxies like TTP and other groups to launch terror attacks in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan.
Here's a video discussion on the subject:
Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?
India's Pakistan Obsession
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
RK Yadav's Mission RAW
Planted Stories in Indian Media
India's Israel Envy