Wednesday, October 26, 2016

How Will Pakistan Respond to Terrorist Attack on Quetta Police Academy?

Quetta has suffered yet another mass tragedy with a major terrorist attack on a police academy that has claimed at least 60 young lives of cadets.  What is behind these continuing attacks in Balochistan and elsewhere in Pakistan? Who's doing these and why?

Indian Prime Minister Modi with NSA Ajit Doval
Pressure on Pakistan:

All indications are that these attacks are part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.

Another motivation for such attacks appears to be sabotage of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is strongly opposed by the Modi government in New Delhi.

Doval Doctrine:

On the one hand, the Modi government and its allies in Kabul are funding the Teheek--e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), various Baloch insurgent groups, MQM militants and other groups to terrorize Pakistanis. On the other hand, they are accusing Pakistani government of sponsoring terror in Afghanistan and Kashmir and demanding action against the Kashmiri support groups headed by Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar and the Haqqanis.

It appears that the "Doval Doctrine", named after India's hawkish national security advisor Ajit Doval,  is designed to stretch Pakistan Army so thin that it finally collapses and paves the way for India to dominate Pakistan. The Doval Doctrine is fully supported by the Tajik-dominated government in Kabul.

Pakistan's Response to Pressure: 

Will foreign pressure on Pakistan work? Will Pakistan do the bidding of foreign governments to relieve the pressure being ratcheted up through major terrorist attacks on its soil? To answer this question, let us look at the following two quotes:

1.  "The Pakistani establishment, as we saw in 1998 with the nuclear test, does not view assistance -- even sizable assistance to their own entities -- as a trade-off for national security vis-a-vis India". US Ambassador Anne Patterson, September 23, 2009

2. “Pakistan knows it can outstare the West."  Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy, May 15, 2011

Message to Foreign Governments:

Leaders in Kabul, New Delhi and Washington need to heed the words of Ambassador Anne Patterson and Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy as they pursue their policy of using violence to put pressure on Pakistanis.

Those ratcheting up the pressure on Pakistan need to understand that the Pakistanis have faced much bigger traumas in the past with the break-up of the country by Indian sponsorship of terror followed by the Indian invasion of East Pakistan in 1971.

The Pakistanis have lost over 60,000 lives to terror in the last decade. Their strength and resilience in the face of extreme adversity is well-tested.

The Pakistanis are betting that the end-game in Afghanistan is near with the continuing  drawdown of the American forces.  The power vacuum left by the Americans will most likely be filled by either the Afghan Taliban or ISIS.

Given the choice between the Afghan Taliban and ISIS, it's almost certain that that the Americans and the Pakistanis would prefer the Afghan Taliban over ISIS to bring some semblance of stability there.

Summary: 

The tragic Quetta Police Academy mass-casualty terror attack is part of the ongoing campaign to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan to act against the Haqqani group, Laskhar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad founder Masood Azhar.  While Pakistan will intensify its crackdown on terrorists who are attacking Pakistanis, the Pakistani establishment will not yield to foreign pressure. The Pakistanis believe that the inevitable return of the Afghan Taliban (not Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) in Afghanistan after US troops exit will mean the end of the Indian influence there. This will deny the Indian intelligence agency RAW the ability to use proxies like TTP and other groups to launch terror attacks in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan.

Here's a video discussion on the subject:

https://youtu.be/dy5CqkHhBkI




Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Can Modi Isolate Pakistan?

MQM-RAW Link

India's Pakistan Obsession

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

RK Yadav's Mission RAW

Planted Stories in Indian Media

Doval Doctrine

India's Israel Envy

11 comments:

Anonymous said...


Om Puri
‏@_OmPuri
#UriAttack happened...
India: Pakistan did it.

Ok, But If Pakistan is bombing in India, then who is bombing in Pak?

#QuettaTerrorAttack

Anonymous said...

In my opinion India doesn't want to split Pakistan however make Pakistan unlivable country or an investment friendly destination for foreign investments. The image Pakistan is trying to build among international community is being tarnished one terrorist incident at a time.

Anonymous said...

Annon said "...make Pakistan unlivable country or an investment friendly destination for foreign investments.".

Agreed, but it is not only Pakistan, India does not want any country in the neighborhood to prosper. Existence of any prosperous country in the neighborhood would give credibility to its 18+ separatist movements.

Sadique said...

[Agreed, but it is not only Pakistan, India does not want any country in the neighborhood to prosper. Existence of any prosperous country in the neighborhood would give credibility to its 18+ separatist movements.]

The above neo-colonial imperialist propaganda is dogma only in Pakistan but elsewhere the consensus view is much different. Sadly in Pakistan, such insecurity has become so pervasive that it prevents it's civilian leaders to govern the country effectively.

Riaz Haq said...

The answer is simple: Authors and publishers of books about Pakistan know where the money is. It's in India where the book sales are rising rapidly in the midst of continuing global decline. Strong profit motive drives them to write what Indians want to read. Those, like Professor Wendy Doniger of University of Chicago, who ignore this reality are punished by having their books withdrawn and pulped. No publisher wants to take this risk now. And authors who wish to get published have to understand it too.
India's English language book market is the world's third largest, behind that of the United States at the top and of the United Kingdom at number 2. It is the fastest growing market today which will make India the world's number 1 market in the next ten years. It could happen sooner if the book sales in the US and the UK decline faster or those in India grow more rapidly than they are already.
http://www.riazhaq.com/2014/12/book-sales-in-india-profit-motive.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan accuses 8 #Indian diplomats, including RAW station chief in #Islamabad, of spying, #terrorism http://reut.rs/2fH1Fen via @Reuters

Pakistan on Thursday named eight Indian diplomats it accuses of espionage and terrorism, as tension mounted between the nuclear-armed rivals following days of artillery duels and skirmishes on the border dividing the disputed Kashmir region.

The foreign ministry said six Indian embassy staff worked for New Delhi's Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency, while two were operatives for the Intelligence Bureau agency. Their names were leaked to Pakistani media overnight.

In response, India said it "completely rejected the baseless and unsubstantiated allegations" leveled by Pakistan against officials at its high commission in Islamabad.

Rajesh Kumar Agnihotri, a commercial counselor, was named by the Pakistan foreign ministry as RAW's station chief in Islamabad.

The foreign ministry statement gave an eight-point list of the diplomats' espionage activities.

It accused them of fuelling instability in Pakistan's Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, as well as sabotaging its most vital economic project, the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), involving transport and energy infrastructure projects to link China with Pakistan's coast on the Arabian Sea.

They were also accused of liaising with factions of the Pakistani Taliban and of working to damage Pakistan's relations with western neighbor Afghanistan.

It was not immediately clear if the diplomats would be expelled by Pakistan or withdrawn by India, which condemned the publication of their names and images and called on Pakistan to ensure their safety.

Last week, India and Pakistan both expelled one diplomat from each other's embassies, accusing them of spying.

The foreign ministry also said Pakistan had withdrawn six diplomats from its mission in India after Indian media reported they had been involved in spying.

Vikas Swarup, spokesman of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, told a news briefing that Islamabad had withdrawn its diplomats after some were named by the Pakistani embassy worker that it had expelled last week.

The allegations against the Indian diplomats in Islamabad were "an afterthought and a crude attempt to target these officials for no fault of their own", said Swarup, adding that Pakistan's actions added to security risks in the region.

India summoned the Pakistani deputy high commissioner on Wednesday to express its "grave concern and strong protest" over the denouncement of its diplomats in Islamabad.

On the same day, the press wing of Pakistan's military said India had violated a 2003 ceasefire in Kashmir 178 times this year, killing 19 civilians.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Riaz, the world or the so called international community is busy with problems in mainly Middle East, eastern Ukraine and South China Sea. It doesn't have time to look into Kashmir issue. China is the only one interested in Pakistans welfare and that too for economic reasons ie to find additional viable and economical routes to import and export its products. India and Pakistan can spend all their money and time trying to lobby for Kashmir but most of the countries including Saudi Arabia are only giving lip service. It's time for both countries to set their priorities right which is poverty alleviation and leave kashmir and Kashmiris for the time being.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan PM, army chief watch military drill "Strike of Thunder" at #India border. #Bhawalpur #Rajasthan #Kashmir

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistan-pm-to-witness-military-drills-at-india-border/2016/11/15/c90f5a1e-aba2-11e6-8f19-21a1c65d2043_story.html

The drill, in the Khairpur Tamiwali desert area near the district or Bahawalpur, came three days after Indian fire in Kashmir killed seven Pakistani soldiers in a new escalation between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

The two sides have traded fire repeatedly in recent weeks across the Line of Control, which divides the Himalayan region into India- and Pakistani-controlled zones. Both Pakistan and India claim Kashmir in its entirety.

Pakistan’s army chief has less than two weeks before retirement after his three-year term. The government has not yet named his successor.

In a speech at the drill, Pakistan’s prime minister paid a glowing tribute to the armed forces and reiterated his government’s commitment to fighting terrorism.

Nawaz Sharif also issued a veiled warning to India, saying that Pakistan would deliver a “befitting response” to any hostile enemy action.

Riaz Haq said...

Gen (R) David H. Petraeus' remarks on security challenges facing the new US administration at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British security think tank in London:

"There's no question there's communication between the ISI and various militant groups in FATA and Balochistan (Haqqanis, Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc) but some of it you'd do anyway as an intelligence service.....there may be some degree of accommodation that is forced on them (Pakistanis) because of the limits of their (Pakistan's) forces.... I looked very very hard then (as US commander in Afghanistan) and again CIA director at the nature of the relationship between the various (militant) groups in FATA and Baluchistan and the Pakistan Army and the ISI and I was never convinced of what certain journalists have alleged (about ISI support of militant groups in FATA).... I have talked to them (journalists) asked them what their sources are and I have not been able to come to grips with that based on what I know from these different positions".

Some people say Pakistan is a frenemy...it is just very very difficult to pin down (blame on Pakistan) and it's even more difficult to figure out how to exert leverage that in a meaningful way resolves the issue There was a period when we cut off all assistance (to Pakistan) and ties and held up F-16s that we were supposed to deliver for a while and that did not help our influence there (in Pakistan). It's a very very tough situation and it may be among the top two or three challenges for the new administration right up there with Syria".

https://youtu.be/XcqJt6hHXQc

Riaz Haq said...

Dangerous Doval Doctrine: #Balochistan vs #Kashmir | Frontline. #India #Pakistan #Modi #BJP http://www.frontline.in/the-nation/balochistan-vs-kashmir/article9373742.ece … e pursuit of a tit-for-tat diplomacy will not get India anywhere because Balochistan and Kashmir are not on a par, legally and politically. The time has come for India to drop the Baloch card and work for the settlement of Kashmir. By A.G. NOORANI
“PAKISTAN’s vulnerabilities are many times higher than us [sic]. Once they know that India has shifted gear from defensive mode to defensive-offence, they will find that it is unaffordable for them. You may do one Mumbai, you may lose Balochistan,” Ajit Doval, now Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s National Security Adviser, said at the 10th Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture at Sastra University, Thanjavur, on February 21, 2014. This was three months before he became NSA and the Manmohan Singh government was still in power.

The shock this Doval Doctrine of “defensive-offence” induced precluded any cool analysis of its implications (see the writer’s “The Doval doctrine”, Frontline, November 13, 2015). Doval was advocating a diplomacy of tit for tat with full knowledge of the perils it entailed, not least among them being the risk of matters getting out of hand in the retaliatory ladder of escalation. This becomes apparent when one moves from the doctrine to the specific, Balochistan.

Whoever perpetrated the Mumbai attacks committed a dastardly crime. But at no time did India ever allege that Pakistan’s top leaders were complicit in it. Is it not a wholly disproportionate retaliation to secure the detachment of one of Pakistan’s four provinces? Would its leaders, civil and military, sit back with folded hands when this is being attempted? And the Great Powers in the “Security Council”, especially China, which now has a stake in Balolchistan? And, pray, how does Doval propose to detach Balochistan? By military invasion? Far from it. Our “intelligence commando” has other plans whose elements are no secret. He proposes to do this by fomenting subversion through covert action. He could not possibly have made the claim (“you may lose Balochistan”) unless India had acquired significant “assets” there—as they are called in the idiom of covert operations—over the years. They cannot be acquired instantly. It is these existing assets, acquired, trained and funded over the years, which emboldened Doval to speak as confidently as he did.

Riaz Haq said...

#India's #Modi Quietly Okays #Balochistan Specialist's Appointment as Next #RAW Chief to Wage #Terror in #Pakistan http://defencenews.in/article.aspx?id=149455 …

From Indian Defense News dated Dec 5, 2016

Special Director of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency. The 1981-batch Madhya Pradesh cadre IPS officer’s domain of expertise is considered to be Balochistan, counter-terrorism and Islamic affairs. He also has a vast experience on Pakistan and Afghanistan. He has served in key capitals, including London and Frankfurt and has also handled SAARC and Europe desks. The post of the RAW chief is falling vacant on January 31, 2017, with the incumbent retiring after a two-year stint. The RAW chief has a fixed tenure of two years unless the government extends the service length or the appointee. Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Special Director A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency.

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Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Special Director A K Dhasmana is likely to be appointed as the next chief of the country’s external intelligence agency. He is considered to be an expert in Balochistan affairs.

In his Independence Day speech this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said, “I want to express my gratitude to the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and PoK for the way they whole-heartedly thanked me.... People of a distant land I haven’t even seen....When they thank the Indian PM, it’s an honour for the 125 crore people of the country...”

Implicit in the statement was a veiled threat to the Pak political and military leadership that India too can needle them for the state-sponsored atrocities in these areas held by Islamabad and target that country’s unity and integrity. The PM’s statement came in the backdrop of brazen Pak stance to dedicate its Independence Day to freedom of Kashmir and stoking violence in J&K following Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani’s death. This was the first time an Indian PM raised the Balochistan issue.
Dhasmana is also known to enjoy National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s confidence. He will replace present RAW chief Rajinder Khanna.

India has been pussyfooting on human rights violations in Balochistan though Pakistan has been exploiting the ‘K’ word to the hilt at different international fora.
Officials close to Dhasmana said he is a go-getter and has an extensive network in the region. Through his vast experience and elaborate asset base in the region, he was able to stall the construction of Gwadar port by about six years, a senior agency said.

Meanwhile, the race for the top post in another key covert agency Intelligence Bureau (IB) is also gaining pace with the tenure of current Director Dineshwar Sharma ending on December 31. Three contenders—Special Directors SK Sinha and Rajiv Jain and Mumbai Police Commissioner Dattatray Palsalgikar—are in the fray.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2016/dec/03/baloch-specialist-to-helm-raw-1545349.html