Sunday, April 19, 2015

Post Cold War Line-Up: Pakistan-China-Russia Vs India-US-Japan in South Asia?


“America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” Henry Kissinger

Rapidly unfolding events confirm shifting post-cold-war alliances in South Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping is starting his first state visit to Pakistan to commit investment of over $45 billion in Pakistan, representing the single largest Chinese investment in a foreign country to date.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's Plane Escorted By Pakistan's JF-17s in Pakistan Airspace

This investment is part of China's “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which is a global project in character and scope representing China’s inexorable rise on the world stage as a superpower. The Pakistan part of it is variously described as Pakistan-China "economic corridor", "industrial corridor", "trade corridor" and "strategic corridor".

Pak-China Industrial Corridor Source: Wall Street Journal


Chinese and Pakistani naval forces have also agreed to boost maritime security cooperation in the Indian ocean with the sale of eight diesel-electric AIP-equipped submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons. This cooperation is aimed at defending against any threats to shipping lanes in and out of Pakistani ports serving the planned Pak-China Corridor.

Russia, too, has lifted arms sales embargo on Pakistan and agreed to sell weapons and make energy infrastructure investments.  Plans are in place for first-ever Pakistan-Russia military exercises.

These development come on the heels of US President Barack Obama's second visit to India and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent tour of Western capitals with the signing of deals confirming Modi's India's status as the West's latest darling.

How strategic are China-Pakistan ties? I am reproducing the following post I published about two years ago:

China's new Prime Minister Mr. Li KeQiang has just ended a two-day visit to Pakistan. Speaking to the Senate, Li declared that "the development of China cannot be separated from the friendship with Pakistan". To make it more concrete, the Chinese Premier brought with him a 5-points proposal which emphasizes "strategic and long-term planning", "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project".


Source: China Daily




From L to R: Premier Lee, President Zardari and Prime Minister Khoso
Here's a recent report by  China's State-owned Xinhua News Agency that can help put the Chinese premier's speech in context:

“As a global economic power, China has a tremendous number of economic sea lanes to protect. China is justified to develop its military capabilities to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its vast interests around the world."

The Xinhua report has for the first time shed light on China's growing concerns with US pivot to Asia which could threaten China's international trade and its economic lifeline of energy and other natural resources it needs to sustain and grow its economy. This concern has been further reinforced by the following:

1. Frequent US statements to "check" China's rise.  For example, former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a 2011 address to the Naval Postgraduate School in California: "We try everything we can to cooperate with these rising powers and to work with them, but to make sure at the same time that they do not threaten stability in the world, to be able to project our power, to be able to say to the world that we continue to be a force to be reckoned with." He added that "we continue to confront rising powers in the world - China, India, Brazil, Russia, countries that we need to cooperate with. We need to hopefully work with. But in the end, we also need to make sure do not threaten the stability of the world."


Source: The Guardian


2. Chinese strategists see a long chain of islands from Japan in the north, all the way down to Australia, all United States allies, all potential controlling chokepoints that could  block Chinese sea lanes and cripple its economy, business and industry.





Karakoram Highway-World's Highest Paved International Road at 15000 ft.


Chinese Premier's emphasis on "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" is mainly driven by their paranoia about the US intentions to "check China's rise" It is intended to establish greater maritime presence at Gwadar, located close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and  to build land routes (motorways, rail links, pipelines)  from the Persian Gulf through Pakistan to Western China. This is China's insurance to continue trade with West Asia and the Middle East in case of hostilities with the United States and its allies in Asia.


Pakistan's Gawadar Port- located 400 Km from the Strait of Hormuz


As to the benefits for Pakistanis, the Chinese investment in "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" will help build infrastructure, stimulate Pakistan's economy and create millions of badly needed jobs.

Clearly, China-Pakistan ties have now become much more strategic than the US-Pakistan ties, particularly since 2011 because, as American Journalist Mark Mazzetti of New York Times put it, the  Obama administration's heavy handed policies "turned Pakistan against the United States". A similar view is offered by a former State Department official Vali Nasr in his book "The Dispensable Nation".

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Pakistan Starts Manufacturing Tablets and Notebooks

China-Pakistan Industrial Corridor

US-Pakistan Ties and New Silk Route

Can Pakistan Say No to US Aid?

Obama's Pakistan Connections

Seeing Bin Laden's Death in Wider Perspective

China's Investment and Trade in South Asia

China Signs Power Plant Deals with Pakistan

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148 comments:

Mayraj said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-welcome-bridge-pakistan-220003474.html


China's Welcome Bridge to Pakistan

Majumdar said...

Prof sb,

Sorry to rain on your parade but remember what happened last time. Pakiland sided with the winner in the last Cold War, Indians with the losers. The loser state (USSR) collapsed but after the Amerikkkans won, they promptly dumped Pakiland and befriended the Indians.

You see what you could end up with....

Regards

Riaz Haq said...

NY Times:

The route from Gwadar to Kashgar, in Xinjiang — a project officially called the Economic Corridor — also serves as a shortcut for the shipment of goods from Europe to China, avoiding the Strait of Malacca farther east.

“The Chinese are stepping in, in a much, much bigger way than the United States ever contemplated,” said Jahangir Tareen, a Pakistani businessman, and the secretary general of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party. “The assistance is far, far more than the United States government offered under the United States Agency for International Development.”

In advance of his trip, Mr. Xi wrote in a column distributed to the Pakistani news media over the weekend: “We need to form a ‘1+4’ cooperation structure with the Economic Corridor at the center and the Gwadar Port, energy, infrastructure and industrial cooperation being the four key areas to drive development across Pakistan and deliver tangible benefits to its people.”

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
Most striking about the visit is the scale of Mr. Xi’s aid announcement compared with the American effort from 2009 to 2012 spearheaded in Congress by John Kerry, then a senator, and pressed in Pakistan by Hillary Rodham Clinton, then secretary of state. The program designated $7.5 billion for development projects over five years.

That effort was a “dramatic failure” because the resources were scattered too thinly, and had no practical or strategic impact, said David S. Sedney, a former senior official at the Pentagon responsible for Pakistan during that period.

The Chinese appear to have learned from the American program, including the notion that the American plan was designed to deliver a strategic result — deterring terrorism — but failed to do so, Mr. Sedney said.

To do better than the United States, the Chinese have come up with “a much larger financial commitment — and it is focused on a specific area, it has a signature infrastructure focus and it is a decades-long commitment,” he said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday that the projects in Pakistan would be the first initiatives of the $40 billion Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road plans, an ambitious network of roads, rails and ports designed to link China to Europe through Central Asia and Russia, and announced with considerable fanfare by Mr. Xi in November.

China’s assistant foreign minister, Liu Jianchao, declined to say how much of the Silk Road funds would go to the Pakistani projects, or how much the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank would lend. “It needs huge financing. China stands ready to provide financing,” Mr. Liu said.

Mr. Xi embarks on his visit to Pakistan after the Finance Ministry announced last week that 57 countries had signed to join the new development bank.

Perhaps just as important as China’s economic assistance is a major military deal that is unlikely to be publicized during the Chinese leader’s visit, Pakistani analysts said.

Pakistan has agreed to buy eight Chinese submarines to counter India’s naval dominance in the Indian Ocean, a $6 billion purchase approved by a parliamentary committee in Islamabad this month. The new submarines were “very quiet, capable and lethal,” and a step up from previous Chinese arms sales to Pakistan, said Lyle J. Goldstein, associate professor at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/world/asia/chinas-president-heads-to-pakistan-with-billions-in-infrastructure-aid.html?_r=0

Tuan said...

The budding alliance between Russia and China may be redrawing old battles. The Soviet Union has long since collapsed, China has jettisoned much of its communist ideology, and the Soviet–Sino split has been relegated to another chapter of the Cold War. Certainly the frequency of Russia–China summit meetings suggests that these two countries have grown to become more than cordial neighbors.

------

Last week, the two presidents met in Dushanbe, Tajikistan for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) regional summit, which also included leaders from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The meeting between the two leaders at the summit follows after bilateral talks held earlier.

At the SCO, Russia and China affirmed ongoing cooperation in important fields such as oil and gas, with the China–Russia East Route used as an example of such cooperation. Construction on the joint-venture pipeline began on September 1 after the $400 billion agreement was signed in May, and is expected to pump 38 billion cubic meters of gas every year starting in 2018.

Despite sanctions, Europe continues to consume and rely on Russian energy; however, deteriorating relations between Russia and Europe has forced Moscow to look elsewhere. China, with its growing energy demands, was ready and waiting.

There is little the US can do to deter or impede Russian–Chinese relations. There is no Soviet–Sino split to exploit. Circumstances have since changed since President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972.

With the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorizing Iraq and the Iraqi people, and President Obama’s recent address to “degrade and ultimately destroy” ISIL, to say nothing of the ongoing and bloody civil strife in Syria, America’s attention will remain in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

US–Vietnam Partnership

However, Moscow and Beijing’s warming relationship is not merely a concern for the US but also regional countries, particularly Vietnam. For Hanoi, which has historically viewed China as a threat and Russia (then-Soviet Union during the Cold War) as a counterweight, any outcome where Russia and China are allies is undesirable.

A potential alliance between Russia and China is a concern for Vietnam, which has relied on the former for armaments. Through Russia, Vietnam has acquired six Kilo-class submarines and six light frigates, as well as a shipment of modern SU-30 fighter jets to bolster Vietnam’s aging air force. Suffice it to say, without Russian technology, Vietnam’s military would have long since fallen into obsolescence.

While Moscow and Beijing have in the past butted heads over Russia’s interests in the South China Sea, it is not inconceivable that the two governments will find some way to resolve their differences given their shared interests in opposing US advances in their respective backyards.

Consequently, ties between Russia and Vietnam, at least with respect to the sale of weapons technologies, may cool at the behest of China. Russia, of course, must walk a fine line between respecting China’s concerns while advancing Russian interests, for Moscow maintains positive relations with many countries in Southeast Asia, some of whom who do not feel the same with China. Russia may not, if ever, abandon Vietnam, but there can be no doubt that any potential future conflict between Vietnam and China will force Moscow to react accordingly.

In an effort to diversify, Hanoi has looked to the US to balance against China and may ultimately encourage an American presence in the region to counter its northern neighbor. Although the US maintains an embargo on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam, recent comments by Senator John McCain and the US nominee for ambassador to Vietnam, Ted Osius, suggest that an easing of restrictions may be on the horizon.


http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/us-vietnam-shifting-alliances-asia/

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan first beneficiary of Asia Infrastructure Bank spearheaded by China:

One of the earliest recipients of money from the international bank spearheaded by China appears to be Pakistan. In his weekly roundup of news from the Frontier Markets, the Wall Street Journal’s Dan Keeler writes, “Pakistan received some welcome news this week with the revelation that China plans to invest as much as $46 billion there as a core part of its efforts to open new trade and transport routes across Asia. China’s newly-established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its Silk Road Fund could be used to help finance the spending plans, a senior Chinese official said.”


Additionally, Chinese Premier Xi Jingping said in an article for the Pakistani press that, “This will be my first trip to Pakistan but I feel as if I am going to visit the house of my own brother.”

Both China and Russia have begun an all-out charm offensive to move the Pakistani government in their direction. China certainly sees an opening in that part of Asia with the departure of the US military from Afghanistan; while Russia seizes on a much-needed market by committing $3 billion to build an LNG pipeline from Karachi to Lahore.

The Pakistan economy appears to be the biggest benefactor here, as reflected in the benchmark index of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE100), up more than 20% in one year. US investors can gain exposure there only by investing in the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (
FM
), in which Pakistan has a 9.51% slice.

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/frontier-markets-pakistan-investments-cm466838#ixzz3Xs9RHQfn

Riaz Haq said...

From China's CCTTV:

‪#‎Pakistan‬ plans to establish a special security division for ‪#‎Chinese‬ workers attached to the 45-million-USD ‪#‎China‬-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project in the country.

The project refers to a planned 3000-kilometer network of roads, railways, and energy projects to link the Chinese city of Kashgar with Pakistan's port of Gwadar. Once completed, it’ll serve as a primary gateway for trade between China, the Middle East, and Africa.

Pakistani officials said that the military will train personnel who will be inducted into the division. The trained members would also provide security to major projects being completed throughout the country, they added.

Reportedly, over 8,000 security officials are already providing security to nearly 9000 Chinese workers in Pakistan.

Experts say that the formation of this special force is a reassuring gesture that shows that the security of Chinese workers is Pakistan’s top priority.

"We already have a fairly large number of Chinese workers who are working very safely. The special security force will also augment our present security institutions to provide extra measures for the security of Chinese workers and staff working in Pakistan,” says Ahsan Iqbal, Minister of Planning, National Reforms & Development.


Riaz Haq said...

Excerpt of Washington Post on Chinese President's visit to Pakistan:

It (China-Pak Corridor) is an impressive proposal, on a scale that we've come to now associate with China's overseas footprint — more usually in corners of Africa. According to the BBC, the Chinese state and its banks would lend to Chinese companies to carry out the work, thereby making it a commercial venture with direct impact on China's slackening economy.

The project is also a key cog in China's own grand-historic vision of itself as a global power and the font of new sea and land "Silk Roads." The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would link up a major land route in Central Asia to what China imagines will be a key maritime hub at Gwadar.

Sure, there remain real reasons to be skeptical. Much of the new construction would be done in the vast, restive Pakistani province of Baluchistan, where the army is still grappling with an entrenched separatist insurgency. Moreover, as Pakistani journalist and columnist Cyril Almeida points out, the proposed Chinese numbers stretch credulity, especially when set against the meager sums currently being invested from the outside into Pakistan's economy. The proof, in this case, will be in the building.

----------
China, Small suggests, "is finally easing into its role as a great power." And, indeed, it's using Pakistan as a corridor.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/04/21/what-china-and-pakistans-special-friendship-means/

Riaz Haq said...

How To Play Pakistan As China Invests Billions

China signed 51 agreements with Pakistan in a ceremony in Islamabad Monday that could ultimately lead to $48 billion in infrastructure projects.
For now, $28 billion in spending is planned. China President Xi Jinping made his first state visit to Pakistan to unveil the development program known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; it will include railway upgrades and power plant construction. China and Pakistan share a “mutual antagonism toward India, but their economic ties had lagged behind,” The Wall Street Journal reports.

Xi and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif highlighted five projects, including a $1.4 billion dam that will deliver 720 megawatts of electricity, and a $1.5 billion solar power park that will add 900 megawatts of power to the grid.----------

Renaissance Capital analysts Daniel Salter, Charles Robertson, Seki Mutukwa and Omair Ansari write that Pakistan is “an undervalued reform story” and add:

“The government is delivering on privatisations with the Habib Bank stake sale, and initial shipments of LNG [liquefied natural gas] have started to arrive (an important first step in rebalancing the country’s energy mix). On the negative side, the government again delayed the anticipated gas tariff hike until July. … If there has been one theme that has worked well in EM of late it is reform. Pakistan ticks many of the boxes here, yet trades on a far lower valuation (8.4x 12-month forward P/E) than other emerging markets and frontier market reform stories such as Vietnam (13.5x), India (16.8x), Philippines (20.0x), Bangladesh (21.4x) or Sri Lanka (13.4x). We believe Pakistan should be of interest not only to frontier funds, but also to mainstream emerging market investors able to look outside of their benchmark index. We like cement, consumer and, to an extent, banks top-down. Our top picks from our bottom-up coverage are: Lucky Cement (LUCK.Pakistan), DG Khan Cement (DGKC.Pakistan) and Packages (PKGS. Pakistan).”

In February and March, the MSCI Pakistan Index fell by over 20% in dollar terms, and the 13% drop in March was the largest in five years, Renaissance Capital reports. But the MSCI Pakistan Index started to rebound this month, up roughly 9%. So far in April, the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) is up 4%, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) is down 1.5%, and the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) has tumbled 2.6%.


http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/04/21/how-to-play-pakistan-as-china-invests-billions/

Riaz Haq said...

A former diplomat, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, said in a TV debate that the Pakistani army has decided to raise a special force to safeguard this 3,000km corridor.
Many are sceptical because the army previously failed to ensure a trouble-free supply to Nato troops in Afghanistan.
But some believe the military is likely to treat the Chinese corridor differently because the economic benefits accruing from it could help isolate Baloch insurgents.
Why is China doing this?
Pakistanis have long described their "friendship" with China as higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the oceans, and as information minister Pervez Rashid put it more recently, sweeter than honey. But behind these lofty words lie some hard-core interests.


China has been a more reliable and less meddlesome supplier of military hardware to Pakistan than the US, and is therefore seen by Pakistanis as a silent ally against arch-rival India.
Friendly exchanges with China also help Pakistan show to its "more volatile" allies in the west, notably the US, that it has other powerful friends as well.
For the Chinese, the relationship has a geo-strategic significance.
The corridor through Gwadar gives them their shortest access to the Middle East and Africa, where thousands of Chinese firms, employing tens of thousands of Chinese workers, are involved in development work.
The corridor also promises to open up remote, landlocked Xinjiang, and create incentives for both state and private enterprises to expand economic activity and create jobs in this under-developed region.

China could also be trying to find alternative trade routes to by-pass the Malacca straits, presently the only maritime route China can use to access the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Apart from being long, it can be blockaded in times of war.
This may be the reason China is also pursuing an eastern corridor to the Bay of Bengal, expected to pass through parts of Myanmar, Bangladesh and possibly India.
Experts say much of Chinese activity is geared towards boosting domestic income and consumption as its previous policy of encouraging cheap exports is no longer enough to sustain growth. On the external front, it is investing in a number of ports in Asia in an apparent attempt to access sources of energy and increase its influence over maritime routes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32400091

Riaz Haq said...

Sellout Husain Haqqani dislikes his home country #Pakistan just as Gordon Chang and Mixin Pei abhor #China http://on.wsj.com/1d0b2A8 via @WSJ

Hussain Haqqani, in the same category as sellouts like Gordon Chang, Minxin Pei, Karim Sadjadpour, Fawad Ajami, etc, has a problem with China-Pakistan alliance. Here's his Op Ed in Wall Street Journal:

China’s President Xi Jinping arrived in Islamabad this week with promises of $46 billion in investment for Pakistani infrastructure. If all envisaged projects materialize, Pakistan would get a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines linking Pakistan’s port of Gwadar to China’s westernmost Xinjiang region. China would also build Pakistan’s half of a long-delayed natural-gas pipeline from Iran. This would be a shot in the arm for Pakistan’s faltering economy and consolidate a decades-old strategic partnership.

---
The Obama administration would also like China to induce Pakistan to abandon its role as a terrorist safe haven. China has been concerned by Pakistan-based jihadists operating in Xinjiang and U.S. officials hope Beijing can be successful in persuading Pakistan to clamp down on the various Islamist groups operating from its soil. But China’s economic reassurances could also reinforce Islamabad’s miscalculations about its regional clout and dangerous ambitions of keeping India strategically off-balance through subconventional means, including terrorism.

Just as Pakistan turned to the U.S. soon after independence in 1947 to seek weapons and economic assistance against India, Pakistan’s leaders today see China as a supporter in their bid to be India’s regional rival. The U.S. disappointed Islamabad by refusing to back its military confrontations with India even while selling Pakistan U.S. weapons (intended for other purposes). Now it might be China’s turn to be the object of unrealistic Pakistani expectations.

Unlike the U.S., China has refrained from lecturing Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders, creating an impression of consistency lacking in U.S.-Pakistan ties. China has been a major supplier of military equipment to Pakistan and was particularly helpful in Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons.

By supporting Pakistan militarily, China has ensured that a large part of India’s military remains tied down in South Asia and is unable to challenge China in the rest of Asia. But India remains the larger market and China’s willingness to use Pakistan as a secondary deterrent against India hasn’t meant abandoning ties with New Delhi. Chinese trade with India in 2013 was $65 billion, six times its trade with Pakistan. In Pakistan’s 1965 and 1971 wars with India, China disappointed Pakistan by not opening a second front against India.

---

China’s investment in Pakistan, and indeed investment from other sources, would materialize more easily if Pakistan put its house in order. Instead of exhausting itself in competing with an Indian neighbor six times its size, Pakistan needs to confront religious extremism, eliminate terrorism and pursue economic reforms that they talk about but do not implement. Pakistan’s elite needs to start paying taxes to overcome one of the worst tax-to-GDP ratios in the world. Defense spending needs to be rationalized and critical investments made in education to overcome a paucity of skilled manpower.

More likely, the promise of Chinese money will lead Pakistan’s leaders to think China will become their economic and military patron. Mr. Xi would do well not to let that happen, and instead to emphasize reform. He shouldn’t forget that money does not always buy Pakistan’s favor or encourage change in Pakistan’s policies. China may actually lose popularity in Pakistan once its companies arrive and demand primacy of economic considerations. Then China might find itself where Pakistan’s previous benefactor, the U.S., is today. After having provided $40 billion in aid to Pakistan since 1950, the U.S. is now viewed favorably by only 14% of Pakistanis.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lowering-expectations-for-chinas-pakistan-push-1429718222

Riaz Haq said...

The Nation Op Ed explaining Chinese investment:

For example, the Karot hydropower project in Jhelum, which was finalized among other energy projects this week, has a debt-equity ratio of 80:20 where equity is roughly USD 285 million and debt is roughly USD 1140 million.
This debt has to be cleared with Chinese banks that are offering us a loan on Libor plus 4.
75 percent (while the project is under construction).
The investment horizon of the project is 50 years; which means we hope to benefit from this deal over the next five decades; which means we cannot afford gaps in commitment and transparency; which means we cannot afford variations in our energy policy, which is typically contingent on changing governments.
In other words, the real fruit of Chinese investment in Pakistan is in the gradual and painstaking implementation of the envisioned projects, not in the immediate signing of any deal.

A healthy dose of skepticism is thus needed to help keep the grand vision of infrastructural development on track.
Take an example from this week alone: the government inaugurated the first ever green parliament in Islamabad and then, in the same breath, declared all future wind and solar energy projects unfeasible to make room for the USD 22 billion LNG deal with Qatar.
Why is the government thinking of energy as a zero-sum-game? In the wake of all this investment, do they have any plans to reach off-grid communities? As Pakistanis, do we have a unified vision on how to deal with the energy crisis; a vision that can support various long-term commitments with other nations? These are just some of the questions that have disappeared under the avalanche of an unprecedented, historical investment – from any one country – into Pakistan.

While healthy skepticism keeps the government on its toes, and unhindered praise for China fills the sentimental vacuum the two countries probably otherwise feel between each other, it’s important to encourage new business opportunities that will benefit from the development of an enhanced port in Gwadar and a trade corridor connecting Western China to the Gulf countries via Pakistan.

Gwadar, rightly dubbed the ‘doorstep of the Middle East’, has the potential of earning freight and cargo services from goods leaving Western China, the land locked Caspian region and the Gulf countries.
As the crow flies, Gwadar is roughly 600kms from Muscat, 1800kms from Dubai, and 4000kms from Doha – routes Pakistan will benefit from as soon as we connect the north and south with a secure thoroughfare.

How this thoroughfare can enable new services and industries is what Pakistan should vociferously debate on talk shows now and leave petty politics aside.
For instance, this week in parliament, when the Chinese premier attended a joint session, Nawaz Sharif asked the speaker (albeit in Urdu) to introduce Imran Khan to Xi Jinping as the ‘Khan who delayed his visit by four months’.
Maybe it was his sense of humor, an inside joke with the speaker, maybe it was accrued venom.
Regardless of how Nawaz meant it, it was unnecessary.

If Pakistan’s journey to absolute financial and energy independence was merely a few months away, I might have empathized with Nawaz.
But we are talking about decades here – a time neither Nawaz nor Imran will live to see.
Pakistan needs an uplift that transcends generations but every time we assign more weight to interparty-politics, we rob Pakistan from our collective input – the only thing that can help us find our way out of the dark.

http://nation.com.pk/columns/24-Apr-2015/understanding-chinese-investment

Unknown said...

I read a very biased anti Paksitan-China cooperation by none other than the infamous traitor Husain Haqqani, title “Lowering Expectations for China's Pakistan Push” but what I like was how quickly someone had responded to that article by publishing a rebuttal titled "Dissecting Husain Haqqani’s (Lowering Expectations for China's Pakistan Push”). Do read this rebuttal if you get an opportunity, link is http://www.zoneasia-pk.com/dissecting-husain-haqqanis-lowering-expectations-for-chinas-pakistan-push/

Riaz Haq said...

Forty Years After Fall of Saigon, Entrepreneurs Return to Vietnam

Henry Nguyen was a toddler when his family fled Vietnam just before the fall of Saigon 40 years ago.

Now he’s back, part of an influx of Vietnamese-born entrepreneurs returning to the country to reap the benefits of its shift to a more market-oriented economy.

Since his return in the early 2000s, Mr. Nguyen has become one of the best-known business figures in the Vietnam. He is head of Vietnam operations for Boston-based fund manager IDG Ventures, and he recently introduced the Big Mac to the country as McDonald’s Corp.MCD +0.20%’s first franchisee here.

In another sign of the changing times, Mr. Nguyen, the son of a civil engineer who worked with the old South Vietnamese government, is married to the daughter of Vietnam’s communist prime minister. The couple and their twin daughters live in Ho Chi Minh City, the name by which Saigon is now known.

“It’s something I never planned on or anticipated,” said Mr. Nguyen, a fresh-faced 41-year-old American with thick-rimmed glasses and spiky hair. “But looking forward, this is where my life is.”

The fact that Mr. Nguyen has gotten so far highlights how much Vietnam has changed since the South capitulated to Communist forces on April 30, 1975. It also points to the important role the country’s diaspora has played in expanding the scope and scale of what could be one of the world’s next great economic success stories.

As Vietnam’s Communist Party began to loosen its hold of the economy in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Viet Kieu, or overseas Vietnamese helped lead the march of foreign investment into the country.

Seattle-raised entrepreneur David Thai helped blaze the trail when he moved to Hanoi in the 1990s. He became the first overseas Vietnamese to register a private company and open a chain of coffee shops under the name Highlands Coffee. Since then, officials say other expatriate Vietnamese have invested more than $20 billion here, mostly in and around Ho Chi Minh City, still in many ways the country’s economic engine.

Intel Corp. appointed U.S. national Than Trang Phuc to launch a $2 billion chip factory in Ho Chi Minh City in the early 2000s, while other Vietnamese returned from America, France and elsewhere to set up private businesses.

The potential payoff is significant. Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC HSBA.LN -0.25% views Vietnam as the best example of a frontier economy benefiting from rising costs in China. Thanks to multibillion-dollar investments from companies such as Samsung Electronics Co.005930.SE +1.39% and Intel INTC -0.41%, exports of smartphones and other electronics now have eclipsed old standbys such as textiles and footwear, leaving the country comfortably higher up the value ladder than cheaper locales such as Cambodia or Bangladesh.

http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/04/29/forty-years-after-fall-of-saigon-entrepreneurs-return-to-vietnam/

Riaz Haq said...

How the U.S. special relationship with Pakistan lost out to China’s strategic ‘silk road’ by Harlan Ullman

That Islamabad has turned east not surprising. When George W. Bush famously declared Pakistan as a U.S. non-NATO major ally, Pakistan expected far more than it got from its American partner in assisting in the global war on terror. That relationship always suffered from mutual misperceptions and expectations generating inherent flaws and cracks that would come apart over time and under stress.
That unhappy history is too well known. After the attacks of September 11th, President and Gen. Pervez Musharraf was encouraged or bullied to join America in destroying Al Qaida then headquartered in and protected by Taliban-run Afghanistan.
Afghanistan had always been of great strategic importance to Islamabad in part because it provided “strategic depth” in the event of hostilities with India and in part because Pakistan’s intelligence service, ISI, enjoyed influence over parts of the Taliban organization.
It was naïve to think that Pakistan would alter those strategic interests for unlimited support of the U.S. war on terror. Until last year, Pakistan distinguished between “good (i.e. Afghan) and “bad (i.e. Pakistani)” Taliban by aiding the former while taking on the latter. Further, while the U.S. believed it was financially generous with coalition support funding for the Pakistan military in battling Al Qaida and later with the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act that provided $1.5 billion a year for five years in assistance, Islamabad saw that aid as miserly coming from an economic superpower.
Politically, because President Obama did not hold President Zardari in high regard, Army Chief of Staff Ashraf Pervez Kayani was treated as the de facto head of government bypassing civilian authority. Then, the case of CIA contractor Raymond Davis who shot and killed two Pakistanis and finally was freed with “blood money” paid to the victims’ families brought the relationship to its nadir.
That nadir was eclipsed with Seal Team Six’s raid in Islamabad that killed Osama bin Laden conducted without informing the Pakistani government in advance. Exacerbated by drone strikes, positive Pakistani perceptions of America were measured in single digits. And the Obama administration’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan leaving that country close to civil war was not calming to Islamabad.
Along came China.
From Beijing’s perspective, Pakistan had been a long-term friend and potential strategic ally against India. More importantly, China understood that in the 1950’s and 1960’s, Pakistan had been a thriving economy and could become one again based in part by opening a new silk road connecting east and west and bringing China closer to the Middle East and Africa where its economic interests were rapidly expanding. Developing the Pakistani seaport of Gwadar bordering on the Persian Gulf would be the logistical springboard for this link up.
Additionally, China is providing Pakistan with eight submarines. Reports of transferring stealthy jet fighters and other military technologies to Pakistan may or may not be accurate. But China certainly recognizes the geoeconomic and geopolitical importance of a strategic relationship with Pakistan.
Some in the U.S. will view China as usurping U.S. influence. Others may argue for closer ties with India to compensate for this new Sino-Pak relationship. While both views are understandable, each is flawed.
Stability in the region is dependent on a prosperous and stable Pakistan, a condition that is very much in doubt given current circumstances. Despite its efforts, the U.S. could not deliver on that promise.
If China can, the region will be better off. Perhaps the wisdom of Sun Tzu can meet the vision of Pakistan’s chief founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah without alienating India. The U.S. should be very supportive of that prospect. That it will is very much in doubt.

http://www.worldtribune.com/2015/04/29/how-the-u-s-special-relationship-with-pakistan-lost-out-to-chinas-strategic-silk-road/

Riaz Haq said...

From India's Economic Times:

NEW DELHI: India will push ahead this week with plans to build a port in southeast Iran, two sources said, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi keen to develop trade ties with Central Asia and prepared to fend off US pressure not to rush into any deals with Iran.

India and Iran agreed in 2003 to develop a port at Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, near Iran's border with Pakistan, but the venture has made little progress because of Western sanctions on Iran.

Now, spurred on by Chinese President Xi Jinping's signing of energy and infrastructure agreements with Pakistan worth $46 billion, Modi wants to swiftly sign trade deals with Iran and other Gulf countries.

"Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari will travel on a day-long tour to Iran to sign a memorandum of understanding for development of Chabahar port," a shipping ministry source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The deal will be signed on Wednesday, he said.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47161638.cms

Riaz Haq said...

BY HUSSAIN NADIM


For one, looking at geopolitical and economic dynamics, Australia and Pakistan share a similar environment. Australia, like Pakistan, maintains a very balanced relationship between China and the United States. Both Pakistan and Australia are economically integrated with China, but in terms of security and defense, share close ties with the United States.

In what many are suggesting as the rise of a bipolar world, countries like Pakistan and Australia may hold the key to international peace and stability in a divided yet interdependent world — a third wheel between the two superpowers. Pakistan already played a similar role in 1970 when it facilitated Kissinger’s secret visit to China, changing the dynamics of the Cold War.

Second, with China investing over $46 billion in Pakistan’s economy and international investors following suit, Australia with its edge in the mining industry has the opportunity to bandwagon on the Chinese investment and develop strong links with Pakistan — one of the most mineral-rich countries in the world — to make the most out of the economic opportunity in the region.

Third, given Australia’s aging population issues, investing in relations with Pakistan at the moment can allow Australia to recruit top professionals from Pakistan to become a driver of economic growth in Australia. Pakistan has a massive and impressively-educated youth bulge that is fluent in English and possesses technical skills that can energize Australia’s work force and inject needed money into its economy.

Finally, and most importantly, is the India pivot. While Australia has excellent ties with India, especially with the 2014 nuclear deal between the two countries, the fact remains that India’s foreign policy is based on traditional power players, looking more towards Russia or the United States to contain China.

At this point, Pakistan, who is also close to both China and the United States, can be a good regional partner for Australia. The two countries share an extensive history of security partnerships and cooperation in agriculture, education, and health. This history was renewed with Bishop’s meetings with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Chief of Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif, and several ministers including the Minister of Planning, Development & Reforms.

The bilateral talks covered all major areas including trade and investment, security and defense, education, agriculture, and energy. In fact, Bishop also announced a $24 million aid package for rehabilitation in conflict-affected areas — a token to demonstrate Australia’s growing interest and seriousness in Pakistan.

The content of the meeting with Ahsan Iqbal, the minister of Planning, Development & Reforms, is most crucial because of the significance of the issues discussed that included education and research, civil services reform and governance, and energy sectors — areas that are top on the priority list of Pakistan as it struggles to recover its economic stability.

But more than just words, it is important that the two countries take practical steps to develop people-to-people links — something pointed out by Bishop in a meeting with her Pakistani counterpart, Sartaj Aziz.

At a time when Pakistan appears to be on the verge of transformation, it’s pragmatic for Australia to invest and build a partnership in a long-term strategic relation that can go beyond security and defense. As it’s famously said: “Follow the money.” Perhaps Australia should simply follow the Chinese as they venture into Pakistan. With two senior level Australian visits to Pakistan, the understanding, it appears, may already be prevalent in the foreign policy circles of Australia.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/05/13/australias-new-equation-for-pakistan/

Riaz Haq said...

#China #CPEC priorities: #Karakoram Highway, #Gwadar Expressway, #Karachi-#Lahore Motorway, Gawadar Intl Airport http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/06-Jun-2015/support-for-pak-is-sincere-down-to-earth-and-mutually-beneficial …
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Ambassador Weidong said that the outcome in terms of MoUs signed during this visit is encouraging, but the more important part is to implement these agreements and deliver results. Action speaks louder than words, he said, adding the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a historical opportunity for bilateral cooperation and future development. He said there is a lot of potential to further develop bilateral relations and opportunities always belong to those with vision and action.

He said the Chinese government would continue to encourage Chinese enterprises to invest in Pakistan in support of Pakistan’s economic and social development. China’s support for Pakistan is sincere, down-to-earth and mutually beneficial. Recalling that the year 2015 is the Year of China-Pakistan Friendly Exchanges, he said both the countries will arrange various activities to promote broad exchanges in culture, education, local administration, youth, think tanks and media.

The ambassador said that China has set up a cultural centre in Islamabad to encourage mutual learning and exchanges in the fields of culture and art. In next five years, he added, China will provide 2,000 training opportunities for Pakistan and train 1,000 Chinese language teachers for Pakistan, to support Pakistan in strengthening human resource development and language teaching.

The two countries, he emphasised, should continue with youth and media exchange visits. “We will translate and publish more quality publications from each other. We will hold a photo exhibition on China-Pakistan friendship history. We will also organise receptions for Pakistani friends from all circles in order to reunite with old friends while making new friends,” he added.

Weidong said that President Xi’s recent visit has been quite fruitful with regard to CPEC. It will cover all the provinces of Pakistan, benefit all Pakistani people, create new job opportunities and help upgrade the overall economic strength of Pakistan. China, he further said, has decided to provide free assistance to support FATA reconstruction and related livelihood projects. He said that China would also provide assistance to promote Gwadar community welfare. These measures will effectively promote economic development in the mid-western part of Pakistan and improve people’s livelihood. It is hoped that a good use would be made of the Chinese assistance so as to produce positive results as soon as possible, he added.

During President Xi’s visit, he said, both sides agreed to formulate the 1+4 cooperation structure ie to take CPEC at the centre and take Gwadar Port, energy, transport infrastructure and industrial cooperation as the four keys. Both sides agreed to increase the bilateral trade volume to $20 billion within the next 3 years, he added. The Silk Road Fund will collaborate with a Chinese company to invest in the clean energy projects such as Karot Hydropower Station. This is the first investment project of the Silk Road Fund since its establishment.

That ambassador said that China also announced to provide assistance for reconstruction activities and well-being projects in FATA so as to improve the people’s livelihood. Both countries have also decided to establish China-Pakistan Joint Research Centre for Small Hydropower, Joint Cotton Bio-Tech Laboratory and Joint Marine Research Centre. CCTV News and documentary channels will be broadcast in Pakistan soon, he said. Three pairs of cities between the two countries have established sister-city relations.

Riaz Haq said...

Nuclear-armed rivals Pakistan and India will start the process of joining a security bloc led by China and Russia at a summit in Russia later this week, a senior Chinese diplomat said on Monday, the first time the grouping has expanded since it was set up in 2001.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) groups China, Russia and the former Soviet republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Mongolia are observers.

"As the influence of the SCO's development has expanded, more and more countries in the region have brought up joining the SCO," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping told a news briefing."...India and Pakistan's admission to the SCO will play an important role in the SCO's development it will play a constructive role in pushing for the improvement of their bilateral relations."

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947, two of them over the divided Muslim-majority region of Kashmir which they both claim in full but rule in part. Pakistan also believes India is supporting separatists in resource-rich Baluchistan province, as well as militants fighting the state.

The SCO was originally formed to fight threats posed by radical Islam and drug trafficking from neighboring Afghanistan.

Cheng said that the summit, to be attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, would also discuss security in Afghanistan.

Beijing says separatist groups in the far western region of Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uighur minority, are seeking to form their own state called East Turkestan and have links with militants in Central Asia as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan.

China says that Uighur militants, operating at the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), has also been working with Islamic State.

"It can be said that ETIM certainly has links with the Islamic State, and has participated in relevant terrorist activities. China is paying close attention to this, and will have security cooperation with relevant countries," Cheng said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/06/us-china-russia-pakistan-india-idUSKCN0PG09120150706

Riaz Haq said...

India and Pakistan, the newest prospective members of a growing economic club formed by Russia and China in the Eurasian region, have hailed the emergence of an economic axis not centered around the West.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Russian city of Ufa that the expanded group, which with the addition of India and Pakistan would represent half the world's population, will serve as a "springboard" to make Eurasia's economy one of the most dynamic in the world.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's "efforts will enhance the political and economic scope of the Eurasian belt."

Modi used the occasion of the summit to schedule a state visit to Pakistan next year, in a sign the two nuclear-armed rivals may see the economic group as a rare forum for mutual cooperation and an easing of tensions.

"We have everything we need to succeed," Modi said. "The time has come to reach out across the region."

Putin showed his pleasure at attracting some of the world's biggest emerging economies, and said that the new entrants would enhance the economic clout and reach of the organization.

"These are powerful nations with strategic prospects, the future leaders of the world and the global economy," he said.

"We will actively develop our relations with those who want to work with us," he said, in a pointed reference to the unwillingness of the West to do new business with Russia after imposing sanctions last year when Russia seized Crimea and backed a separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

"It has become clear that economics are being used as a political weapon.... But we should not close ourselves off with some kind of wall," he said. "We will use all the tools of collaboration with all countries -- the United States, Europe, and Asia."

Putin used the Shanghai summit and a previous one involving the world's largest emerging economies to show that Russia is not isolated in the global economy, despite bickering with the West over Ukraine.

Analysts said India and Pakistan likely wanted to join the Eurasian group to develop relations with major energy producers like Russia and Kazakhstan.

The group also includes other Central Asian former Soviet republics Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

"Membership could better position India to benefit from Central Asia's gas riches," said Michael Kugelman, an associate at the Wilson Center in Washington.

But while the addition of India and Pakistan beefs up the group's economic gravitas, "India and Pakistan wouldn't be dominant powers" within the organization, he said. "China and Russia would retain that title."

The Shanghai group did not invite Iran to join, although it has long sought membership. The group says Iran can join only after reaching a deal with big powers on its nuclear program.

With the addition of Iran, the group would control around one-fifth of the world's oil and represent nearly half of the global population. The BRICS account for one-fifth of the world's economic output and 40 percent of its population.

http://www.rferl.org/content/pakistan-india-hail-new-eurasian-economic-axis-russia-putin/27121657.html

Riaz Haq said...

As #China Awakens, #America -- And #Pakistan -- Should Take Note http://huff.to/1IvsiJN via @theworldpost

With Pakistan's good relations with both China and the U.S., it is ideally placed to help bring the two powers together, as it did in the past. It is sometimes forgotten that Pakistan facilitated President Nixon's historic visit to China.

The current global geopolitical alignment for the first time in history has both the U.S. and China maintaining good relations with both India and Pakistan. While noting the unmistakable affection for Pakistan in China, I saw no overt signs of hostility towards India. On the contrary, Chinese scholars talked with optimism of the new relationship between China and India. They pointed to President Xi's visit to India and Prime Minister Modi's visit to China, which were conducted in an atmosphere of cordiality and resulted in billions of dollars in economic deals. But reality warns us that India and Pakistan are so conditioned by their hateful rivalry that they will turn any event to their favor and against their opponent. Perhaps the vast economic and political benefits that are possible in China's initiatives will influence them in this case. In spite of the numerous naysayers, those of us who dream of a peaceful South Asia taking its place on the world stage as a cultural and economic powerhouse see a ray of hope in today's situation.


Perhaps the greatest lesson that emerged in the recent U.S.-China dialogue that I attended was the importance of face-to-face meetings with open minds and hearts and at convivial meals. Free from files and official agendas, people of different backgrounds see each other with empathy as fellow human beings.

We are still left with Napoleon's enigmatic comment ( "When China wakes, she will shake the world"). The answer to the inherent question contained in it may be tied to Xi Jinping's vision of the future of China. In either case, it is time to watch the awakening of China with interest.

Riaz Haq said...

With #Iran’s Help, #India Eludes #China and Bypasses #Pakistan in Race for Gas Riches http://bloom.bg/1gNasI4 via @business

With U.S. sanctions easing, India is racing to build a port in Iran that will get around the fact that its land access to energy-rich former Soviet republics in Central Asia has been blocked by China and its ally Pakistan.
“We’re seeing the latest manifestation of the Great Game in Central Asia, and India is the new player,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “It’s had its eyes on Central Asia for a long time.”
While the world focuses on what Iran’s opening means for Israel and Arab nations, the ramifications are also critical for Asia. Closer Iran-India ties would allow New Delhi’s leaders to secure cheaper energy imports to bolster economic growth and reduce the influence of both China and Pakistan in the region.
The six nations that make up Central Asia hold at least 11 percent of the world’s proven natural gas reserves, as well as substantial deposits of oil and coal, according to data compiled by BP Plc. Afghanistan says its mineral wealth is valued at $1 trillion to $3 trillion.
“Iran can offer us an alternative route to Central Asia,” Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar said in Singapore on July 20. “The resolution of the nuclear dispute and lifting of sanctions will allow our agenda of energy and connectivity cooperation to unfold seriously.”
‘Alternative Route’
India can be the first country to benefit from the deal in Asia, an Iranian diplomat told reporters in New Delhi this week. Iran was seeking billions of dollars in investment from India for ports, railways and airports, the diplomat said, asking not to be identified due to government rules.
Even before the deal to end sanctions was clinched, India reached an agreement to upgrade the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Arabian Sea. Two Indian state-run companies -- Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust -- have plans to invest $85 million to upgrade two berths.
On a five-nation Central Asian tour last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi backed an ambitious transit route through Iran that would effectively connect Europe to India by a series of sea, rail and road links. Currently, cargo from India has to go by air or take a detour through the Suez Canal.
Pathway to Europe
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China Dominance
China is the biggest economic player in Central Asia. It’s the top commercial partner for every nation except Afghanistan, with its $48 billion in trade to the region dwarfing that of India, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Turkmenistan pipes almost 80 percent of its gas to China.
China has welcomed the nuclear deal, noting in a statement that Iran once played a pivotal role in the ancient Silk Road trade route linking Europe and the Far East.
Pakistan is also important. The only Muslim-majority country with a nuclear bomb has refused to allow Indian trucks to pass through to Central Asia, and plans to build overland gas pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan had long stalled.
“Pakistan has essentially had a stranglehold over India’s policy in the region,” said Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London. “India wanted to break that. Now, that constraint has been removed.”
Even so, Pakistan doesn’t see much of a threat, according to Commerce Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan. China is investing $45 billion in an economic corridor through Pakistan stretching from China’s western border to the Arabian Sea. Pakistan is also seeking a free-trade agreement with Iran.

“The scale of Chinese investment in Pakistan and in the corridor really dwarfs anything Indian is attempting in Iran,” Khan said in an interview in Islamabad on Wednesday.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan warms up to #Russia with helicopter deal, gas pipeline investment http://on.wsj.com/1J7dd0f via @WSJ Russia has agreed to sell military helicopters to Pakistan and is poised to build a $2 billion natural-gas pipeline in the South Asian country—its biggest investment there in decades—as Islamabad turns toward a former adversary and away from the U.S., its longtime ally.

Islamabad has been weighing its strategic options amid rising tension with Washington, which views Pakistan as an unreliable ally in combating Islamist militants in the region, including neighboring Afghanistan.

On Thursday, Pakistan said it would buy four Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters for an undisclosed price, after a spate of high-level visits between the two countries.

In the Russian city of Ufa last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met Russian President Vladimir Putin and declared that he wanted a “multidimensional relationship” encompassing defense, commerce and energy. That represents a major shift for both countries, in response to a changing geopolitical dynamic. Pakistan worked alongside the U.S. to defeat Soviet forces that occupied Afghanistan in the 1980s, while Russia built close ties with India, Pakistan’s estranged neighbor and rival.

Now, the U.S. is increasingly embracing India as a counterweight to a rising China, which it views as a strategic competitor. That has encouraged erstwhile enemies Russia and Pakistan to mend fences.

“Pakistan has decided it is no longer an American client state,” said Zafar Hilaly, a former senior Pakistani diplomat. “Pakistan has decided that although America will remain important, it must have other alternatives.”

The biggest marker of this new relationship is a proposed 1,100-kilometer (684-mile) pipeline, to be built by Russian state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec. The two countries are expected to sign an agreement to move ahead within the next month, officials from both sides said.

The pipeline would carry imported natural gas from the port city of Karachi to Lahore in the east, helping the country deal with crippling energy shortages. Rostec, run by a close friend of Mr. Putin’s, would finance, own and operate the pipeline for 25 years.

“It’s very important for Russia from a geopolitical point of view. Russia is trying to enter this market and compete with China and the U.S.,” said Vladimir Sotnikov, senior research associate at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Eastern Studies.

Despite Islamabad’s outreach to Russia, experts said it is likely to seek continued close ties to the U.S., which is Pakistan’s biggest supplier of military aid and equipment. Since 2002, the U.S. has provided Pakistan with $31 billion in civilian and military aid and reimbursements, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Pakistan recently signed a nearly $1 billion deal to purchase 15 American AH-1Z Viper helicopters, as well as 1,000 Hellfire missiles and other equipment.

Both Russia and China are concerned about protecting their southern underbellies against the export of extremism and instability from Pakistan and Afghanistan, by investing there to promote economic development.

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The Russian pipeline would represent Moscow’s first major project in Pakistan since the early 1970s, when the Soviet Union helped build a steel mill in Karachi during a brief warming of relations that followed the election of a left-leaning leader in Islamabad. The two countries are now discussing ways that Russia can upgrade the mill, Pakistani officials said.
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Rostec said it would raise the funds needed for the project. The U.S. imposed financial sanctions on Rostec after Russia’s interventions in Ukraine, effectively cutting it off from U.S.-dollar financing.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia-#Pakistan Mi-35 Contract Could be Expanded For More Helicopters/ Sputnik International http://sputniknews.com/business/20150825/1026161580.html … via @SputnikInt


MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The contract on the delivery of four Russian Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan could be expanded, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second Asia Department Zamir Kabulov said Tuesday.
"It all depends on money. Pakistan has stated that it has the financial means for 10-12 helicopters of this type, but negotiations are ongoing," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
Moscow and Islamabad are discussing possible supplies of Russian defensive weapons to Pakistan, Kabulov added.
"Pakistan has an interest in other Russian weapon systems. Negotiations are underway. We are talking about defensive systems," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
In March, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain announced Islamabad's intention to expand military-technical commerce with Russia with the purchase of Mi-35 gunships.
In August, a contract for four Mi-35M transport and attack helicopters was signed by Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and Pakistan's Ministry of Defense, according to a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in Islamabad.
The Mi-35M (NATO Designation Hind-E) is an upgraded export version of the Mi-24V multipurpose assault helicopter, developed by the Mil Moscow Helicopter Plant.


Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20150825/1026161580.html#ixzz3jtT2rD25

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia-#Pakistan Mi-35 Contract Could be Expanded For More Helicopters/ Sputnik International http://sputniknews.com/business/20150825/1026161580.html … via @SputnikInt


MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The contract on the delivery of four Russian Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan could be expanded, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Second Asia Department Zamir Kabulov said Tuesday.
"It all depends on money. Pakistan has stated that it has the financial means for 10-12 helicopters of this type, but negotiations are ongoing," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
Moscow and Islamabad are discussing possible supplies of Russian defensive weapons to Pakistan, Kabulov added.
"Pakistan has an interest in other Russian weapon systems. Negotiations are underway. We are talking about defensive systems," Kabulov told RIA Novosti.
In March, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain announced Islamabad's intention to expand military-technical commerce with Russia with the purchase of Mi-35 gunships.
In August, a contract for four Mi-35M transport and attack helicopters was signed by Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and Pakistan's Ministry of Defense, according to a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in Islamabad.
The Mi-35M (NATO Designation Hind-E) is an upgraded export version of the Mi-24V multipurpose assault helicopter, developed by the Mil Moscow Helicopter Plant.


Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20150825/1026161580.html#ixzz3jtT2rD25

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan-#Russia talks on delivery of Su-35, Mi-35s underway: Russian Deputy FM http://www.dawn.com/news/1206088

NIZHYNY TAGIL: Pakistan and Russia are in talks about the delivery of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and previously agreed upon delivery of Mi-35M helicopters, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister (FM) Sergei Ryabkov said, Sputnik reported.

Earlier this year, a draft contract for the delivery of four Mi-35M 'Hind E' combat helicopters was sent to Pakistan from Russia, a source in the Russian military and technical cooperation was quoted by the Russian news agency TASS.

Increasing military cooperation between Islamabad and Moscow would not negatively impact Russia's ties with India, Ryabkov said, adding that Pak-Russia ties were improving in other sectors as well ─ including energy.

The Russian Deputy FM Ryabkov referred to Pakistan as Russia's closest partner and said, "I do not think that the contacts under discussion will cause jealousy on the part of any of the two sides."

The twin-engine Su-35 is a fourth generation multi-role combat aircraft which also incorporates technology from fifth generation jets, according to details available on the Sukhoi company's website. It is also said to be more agile as compared to previous models.

Read: Pakistan, Russia sign landmark defence cooperation agreement

Pakistan and Russia had signed a bilateral defence cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening military-to-military relations in November last year. The deal had to be followed by another ‘technical cooperation agreement’ to pave the way for sale of defence equipment to Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

#India Surges to Second-Biggest U.S. Weapons Buyer After #SaudiArabia #Modi #China #Pakistan http://bloom.bg/1LHS0wL via @business

As China rises as a military power in Asia, India is buying more and more U.S. weapons.

Monday’s meeting between President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlights the converging strategic interests between the nations, which had strained relations during the Cold War. India was the second-biggest buyer of U.S. arms last year behind Saudi Arabia, up from almost nothing five years ago.
The latest purchase came last week, when India’s cabinet approved a $3 billion deal for Boeing Co. military helicopters. The 22 Apache attack choppers and 15 Chinook cargo choppers comprised the biggest defense contract since Modi came to power.

The stronger military ties represent a shift for India’s leaders as they look to reduce dependence on Russia for weapons and counter growing Chinese naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean. Modi is looking to access the technology needed to build up India’s local defense manufacturing as he spends $150 billion to modernize its military by 2027.
"India wants more sophistication and has the money to get that wherever that technology is available, whether it’s Israel, France, the U.S. or elsewhere," Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defense-industry analyst for IHS Jane’s, said by phone from Bangkok. "Countries are falling over themselves to transfer technology to India."

Riaz Haq said...

#American, #Indian troops struggle to understand each others' accents in US-#India military exercise in #Washington http://theweek.com/articles/580711/why-america-cozying-indian-army …

Gunfire rang out violently. Indian and American troops stormed a compound in Leschi Town, a mock city soldiers use for urban combat training at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state. The soldiers hauled ladders to scale the walls while a machine-gun team laid down suppressing fire from a nearby ridge.

The soldiers hurriedly scurried over the wall shouting instructions at each other. The American and Indian troops occasionally struggled to understand each others' accents — and vocabularies. The Indian troops' English had different words for tactics and formations.

But the soldiers ultimately figured out how to communicate fairly quickly — often through gestures — as they worked together to take the facility. Mixed teams worked together to breach doorways and clear out buildings.

It's part of Exercise Yudh Abhyas 2015, the 11th iteration of an annual exercise between the U.S. and Indian militaries. The two militaries trained together for two weeks in September while also breaking for social functions like going to the beach and tailgating at a Mariners game.
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In recent years, U.S. President Barack Obama has put renewed military focus on Asia as part of the "Pacific Pivot." The U.S. has strengthened ties with Cold War allies Japan and the Philippines — and even former enemies such as Vietnam — many of whom are suspicious of China's growing military strength and increasingly bold moves in the South Pacific.

JBLM is home to the U.S. Army's I Corps, which oversees Army units based on the American West Coast, most of which operate in Asia and the Pacific. While Indian troops trained at JBLM, I Corps also hosted Japanese troops just across the Cascade Mountains as they trained at the Yakima Training Center.

India, in many ways, shares concerns about its large and powerful neighbor. Lately, trade relations between the two giants have heavily favored China. There have also been continued tension along the border. In September 2014, Indian authorities accused the Chinese military of crossing the border into India's Chumar sector.

"India is a major regional power, at present, in Asia with a long standing border dispute with China with no foreseeable solution," said Gopalan Balachandran, a researcher at India's Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses. "It is a border dispute over which the two countries had gone to war, of a sort, in the past and where Chinese actions in recent past have raised tensions between the two countries."

"Many of the East and South East Asian countries have felt, and expressed in many open fora, that India should play a more active role in future Asian security architecture," Balachandran added.

Cohen said that New Delhi is definitely wary of Beijing's growing military strength and the security along the two nations' borders. But he added that preparing for natural disasters, "broken down governments," and quelling insurgencies are in many ways more pressing in the eyes of many Indian officials than fear of potential Chinese expansionism, which Cohen called a "hypothetical threat."

Tragedies such as the massive 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the destructive earthquake in nearby Nepal have made New Delhi concerned about disaster readiness. In the immediate aftermath of such huge cataclysms, the military's logistical capabilities are often needed to deliver aid and conduct search and rescue operations.

Riaz Haq said...

#Chinese prefer #Pakistan, want to move away #India as neighbour: #China Global Times Survey #CPEC http://toi.in/b67Q1Z

Majority of Chinese would like to move India away along with Japan and a host of other neighbouring countries with whom Beijing has territorial disputes and would prefer Pakistan and Nepal as neighbours, if given a chance to 'play God' to redraw China's map.
A total of 13,196 people wanted to "move away" Japan, the highest number of votes polled in a survey seeking their views to select neighbours, if they can 'play God' and rearrange the countries at China's borders.
More than 200,000 internet users took part in the survey conducted by the Chinese edition of the state-run tabloid Global Times known for its nationalistic postures.
Other countries that were "moved away" include the Philippines (11,671), Vietnam (11,620), North Korea (11,024), India (10,416), Afghanistan (8,506), and Indonesia (8,167), the results published in the daily on Friday said.

While historical disputes including the second world war atrocities by Japanese forces may have weighed in Chinese people's minds to move Japan away, the border dispute and "protection" to Dalai Lama and his associates whom China regards as separatists led to adverse view of India, Chinese analysts said.
"China and India have disputes over 120,000 square kms of land and the two have not signed treaty to settle the border disputes," Sun Lizhou, deputy director of the Academy of the World and China Agendas, Southwest University of Political Science and Law, told the Global Times.
India-China have a disputed border stretching up to 3448km. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet. The recent initiatives by India and China to improve relations had little effect on Chinese perceptions.
Unsurprisingly majority wants Pakistan often referred as all-weather ally by Chinese leaders and media to remain as a neighbour.
"Net users used their votes to show the bond shared by China and Pakistan, with 11,831 people wanting the country to 'stay as a neighbour'," the report said.
Considering the fast developing ties with Nepal, the Chinese wants it too to remain as a neighbour.
The news paper gave 36 countries to choose from as options for "new neighbours".
Sweden earned 9,776 votes, accounting for 5.8 per cent.

Riaz Haq said...

Times of India Editorial:

A year or so before Ajit Doval became national security adviser, he famously warned Pakistan that a repeat of the Mumbai 26/11attack could lead to Pakistan losing Balochistan. The Doval Doctrine – as it has now come to be known – involves what he calls a “defensive-offensive” strategy where India’s security establishment acquires a sub-conventional secondstrike capability, to be wielded as and when needed.
The Pakistan military establishment is aware that Balochistan is a natural weakness India could exploit with telling impact. In May last year, the Pakistan army’s media machinery all but accused India of fermenting secessionism there.
But here lies the twist. China – as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – sees the Balochistan port of Gwadar as an integral part of its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Indeed, as former foreign secretary Shyam Saran recently wrote, Gwadar is significant precisely because it is where China’s Maritime Silk Route (“the Road”) meets its Eurasian landbased connectivity project (“the Belt”).
The geopolitical significance of Gwadar to China makes any Indian subconventional response in Balochistan exceedingly complicated. The reality is that the same Balochi rebels who want to secede from Pakistan have also opposed Chinese activities.
This was evident last March when Balochi rebels set fire to five oil tankers servicing a Chinese company. However, it is likely that unrest in that region, organic or manipulated, that hurts Chinese interests could be viewed by Beijing (or could be sold to them), as Indian provocation.
It is also inconceivable that China would sit idle if the separatists, allegedly backed by India, move from being a mere nuisance and acquire the potential to seriously jeopardise their prize – Gwadar – of the $46 billion CPEC investment. China could initiate and enhance its support for militants in the Indian northeast, or worse, encourage and abet Pakistan’s proxy warriors.
Meanwhile, an assertive US AsiaPacific re-balance in the region – in response to China’s naval activism in the South China Sea – is likely to ensure greater US control of the Malacca Strait in order to deter the Chinese from revising marine territorial borders.
China, therefore, seeks alternative routes for its energy supply and goods, which would connect the Strait of Hormuz to a port in the Arabian Sea, along with better land connectivity through the Eurasian landmass.
Even as these new realities reshape multiple arrangements in the region, the challenge for India is to ensure that Balochistan does not transform from being Pakistan’s quagmire to another thorn in the Sino-Indian relationship. India must wean China away from the Gwadar port, and CPEC in general, by offering credible alternatives.
India could fast track its commitment to the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor and invite the Chinese to set up a land connectivity corridor from Kolkata to Gandhinagar, passing through Mumbai. It should also offer to partner with the Chinese to refurbish the NH-6 linking Kolkata to Mumbai.
Finally, it should get the Chinese on-board the Sagarmala initiative, and allow the Chinese to co-develop a port off the coast of Gujarat, which would link up with the Indian-Chinese land connectivity corridor running roughly parallel to the Tropic of Cancer. The financial model for this land initiative could be along the lines of what has been proposed for the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor in collaboration with Japan, and implemented through the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in which India is the second-largest shareholder.


http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-editorials/engage-the-dragon-on-balochistan/

I think Pakistan currently has the upper hand in both corridor diplomacy and proxy wars in the region, particularly since 2014 when Pakistan Army started acting forcefully against India's proxies, the TTP and the Baloch insurgents.

I expect India to continue to counter Pakistan in both more forcefully as CPEC nears reality.

Riaz Haq said...


#Russia to Spend Billions on #Gas Pipeline in #Pakistan. #Putin http://learningenglish.voanews.com/content/russia-to-spend-billions-on-gas-pipeline-in-pakistan/3193228.html …


Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Pakistan in the next few months to begin a gas pipeline project.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif asked Putin to visit.

Mobin Saulat heads Inter State Gas Systems, the Pakistani company that would build the pipeline. He says Putin may visit Pakistan before June.

He says Russia is interested in the project because 200 million people live in Pakistan, and investing in the country could help Russia gain influence in other South Asian nations.

When Pakistani officials and energy experts visited Moscow recently, they met with the heads of three large Russian energy companies for the first time in more than 20 years. He says that shows Russia’s interest in Pakistani energy issues.

Saulat says he believes the pipeline is the first of many investments Russia will make in Pakistan.

Experts say both countries may have strategic and political reasons to work together on the gas pipeline project.

Pakistan has tried to form new partnerships to reduce its dependence on the United States and China.

Russia will spend about two to $2.5 billion dollars on the project. That is almost 85 percent of the cost.

The 1,100-kilometer-long pipeline will be able to transport 34 million cubic meters of gas per day throughout Pakistan from Karachi to Lahore. The first part of the project is expected to be finished in two years. The last two parts are set to be completed in 2019.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Rejects #US Calls for Curbing Tactical #Nuke Weapons http://www.voanews.com/content/pakistan-rejects-us-calls-for-curbing-tactical-nuke-weapons/3256025.html …

Pakistan’s top nuclear security advisor has rejected growing U.S. pressure and safety concerns about its production and deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons.

“We are not apologetic about the development of the TNWs [tactical nuclear weapons] and they are here to stay,” said Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, an advisor to the so-called National Command Authority (NCA) and a longtime custodian of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

The institutions responsible for planning storage and operational deployments do make sure that “it is so balanced on ground in time and space that it is ready to react at the point where it must react and at the same time it is not sucked into the battle too early and remains safe," Kidwai told a seminar at Islamabad’s Institute of Strategic Studies.

Response to US

He was apparently responding to last week’s testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee by Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller, where she praised the “excellent” steps Pakistan has undertaken to secure its nuclear arsenal, but said Washington is troubled by the development of battlefield nuclear weapons.

She insisted that battlefield nuclear weapons, by their very nature, pose security threats because their security cannot be guaranteed when they are taken to the field.

“So, we are really quite concerned about this and we have made our concerns known and we will continue to press them about what we consider to be the destabilizing aspects of their battlefield nuclear weapons program,” Gottemoeller said.

Nuclear Security Summit

The tensions come ahead of next week’s Nuclear Security Summit in Washington (March 31 - April 1), where President Barack Obama and other global leaders will discuss terrorism threats related to radiological weapons and review proposed safety measures. Leaders of Pakistan and its nuclear-armed archival India will also attend.

Islamabad’s tactical nuclear weapons have been straining its traditionally rollercoaster ties with Washington since 2011, when Pakistan first tested and began producing its nuclear-capable "Nasr" ballistic missile, which has a range of 60 kilometers (36 miles).

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Kidwai insisted that the punitive actions might have caused political and diplomatic setbacks to his country but said it has not impacted its efforts to defend the country against another Indian aggression.

“Pakistan would not cap or curb its nuclear weapons program or accept any restrictions. All attempts in this regard… are bound to end up nowhere,” he added.

The Pakistani advisor particularly criticized the American media for being "completely negative, hostile and biased" towards Islamabad's nuclear program, accusing it of publishing misleading reports and claims that Pakistan possesses the world's fastest growing nuclear program.

"I think it is politically-motivated because the developments that are taking place in Pakistan are of a very modest level, very much in line with the concept of credible minimum deterrence, and they are always a reaction to an action that takes place in India. So, Pakistan does not have the fastest growing nuclear program," he said.

Riaz Haq said...

#India rejects #American proposal for joint navy patrols in South #China Sea ahead of Ashton Carter visit to #Delhi. http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/shows-of-strength-china-aids-pakistan-against-india-could-curtail-indian-shipping-in-south-china-sea/ …

India’s firm rejection of a proposal to jointly patrol the South China Sea with the US Navy has averted, at least for the time being, a risky entanglement. But the simmering tensions over control of the contested waterway are intensifying and could result in a clash that would affect India’s oil exploration and navigation through the area.
The impending decision by the UN Arbitral Tribunal over China’s expansive territorial claims sets the stage for Beijing to intensify its efforts to establish control over all reefs and features. As a part of that manoeuvre this week China inaugurated a light house on submerged Subi Reef near the Philippines. Anticipating such stepped up Chinese control and militarisation, the US has increased Freedom of Navigation operations and flights, making South China Sea the arena for trial of strength between the traditional power and the challenger.
What is astounding is that China has built up its military control over most of South China Sea in less than three years, and that too right before the eyes of its neighbours and the US Navy. It has constructed artificial islands and then covered them with airfields and military installations, setting up missile batteries and over-the-horizon radar coverage designed to give it dominance over the entire body of water.
Countries disputing Chinese claims have turned to the US for help, while the Philippines has even sought legal injunction through the UN Tribunal, which is expected to hand down a decision in coming months. Although China has already rejected the tribunal’s authority, the US suspects China is hurrying up fortifying its presence in contested islands. The US has warned about China’s ongoing construction activity going further east but seems unable to do much about it other than urging it to stop militarisation. What all of Asia once accepted as disputed territory has now become a de facto Chinese lake.
While the US has declined to take a position on the legality of competing territorial claims, it cannot overlook the Chinese advances. While its ports and airfields, constructed on seven artificial islands, provide the power projection capability needed to cow wary neighbours, the establishment of an Air Defense Zone will give Beijing control over the skies. The US and Japan may refuse to accept this – and get away with it – but most nations will play it safe and comply, giving China de facto control over the South China Sea’s waters and airspace.
To date, China has not sought to prevent passage by any vessel (barring one occasion when an Indian navy ship was given radio warning while sailing out of Vietnam), but its overwhelming military presence on artificial islands could allow it to eventually require that others seek Beijing’s permission to sail through the South China Sea.

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If India joins the US in a joint patrol of the South China Sea, it should be prepared to see a joint Sino-Pakistani naval patrol along its western seaboard, knowing full well that such tit-for-tat escalations seldom produce a positive outcome. That said, Indian leaders need to be prepared to establish some red lines, particularly if Beijing’s muscle-flexing imperils New Delhi’s freedom of navigation in and above the South China Sea.

Riaz Haq said...

#American Defense Sec to visit #Delhi to sign security, logistics and intelligence cooperation deals with #India
http://www.thehindu.com/news/article8261843.ece …

Ashton Carter's impending visit comes as focused efforts are on to make progress in concluding the 3 outstanding defence pacts between the two countries.

U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carter will be visiting India in April and focused efforts are under way to make progress in concluding the three outstanding defence agreements between the two countries, sources have told The Hindu.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had said during his visit to Washington in December 2015 that India was “in principle” agreeable to these pacts but some more clarity was required from the U.S. side. Both Indian and American officials had then said that progress could be expected in 2016.

Will follow Modi’s visit

Mr. Carter will be travelling to India within weeks after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. on March 31 and April 1, to attend the nuclear security summit.

Mr. Carter’s visit to India will take place against the backdrop of continuing tensions in the South China Sea. India and the U.S. had in January 2015 announced a joint strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. U.S. continues to accuse China of “militarising” the region.

Needling by North Korea

The recent North Korean nuclear adventurism has prompted U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan to seek higher U.S. presence in the region. The U.S. had repeatedly said in recent weeks that it would not hesitate to intervene to ensure the security of its Asian partners and now China has accused the U.S of militarising the region.

America has not specified what it expects India to do in East Asia, pointed out Richard M. Rossow, Wadhwani Chair in U.S. India Policy Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. “The recent rumor of a joint patrol in the South China Sea certainly raised interest among the strategic community, though realistically it seems unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future,” he said.

‘Foundational agreements’

Termed ‘foundational agreements,’ the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), Logistics Support Agreement (LSA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for geospatial intelligence have been pending for at least a decade now and will be the focus during Mr. Carter’s visit.

The U.S. has signed these agreements with most of its strategic partners. Dominant sections within the political and strategic community in India have argued that signing of these agreements will lock the country in an irreversible embrace with the U.S. India and the U.S. have already signed one foundational agreement -- General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA).

Time to move forward on pacts

Indian sources told The Hindu that there is increasing acceptance within the military and strategic community that it is time to move forward on these agreements. “For India-U.S. defence cooperation to be effective and optimal, these agreements can be of great help,” one said.

“The political resistance from the Left that stopped these agreements in 2006 is not relevant now. Also arguments against these agreements have weakened as India-U.S. defence cooperation has grown by leaps and bounds in the last ten years. The time is just ripe to move forward,” Mr. Rossow said.

‘Parrikar deflects it to MEA’

Mr. Rossow, however, feels that Mr. Parrikar has not sufficiently pulled his weight in favour of the foundational agreements and cooperation with the U.S. in general according. “For the most part, when the strategic community tries to do something, he tends to deflect it to the MEA” he said.

Riaz Haq said...

#US, #India Agree On Small UAVs, High Powered Lasers And Target Detection Technology, Other Joint #Defense Projects

http://www.defenseworld.net/news/15800/US__India_Finalize_Mini_UAVs__Other_Defense_Projects#.Vw5vbW8rj-k.twitter …

India and US have finalized four government-to-government projects that include small UAVs, high powered lasers and target detection technology.

“US Secretary for Defense Ashton Carter and Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parriakr have welcomed finalization of four government-to-government project agreements in the area of science and technology cooperation. Atmospheric sciences for high energy lasers, cognitive tools for Target Detection, Small intelligent UAVs and blast and blunt traumatic brain injury,” the Indo-US joint statement said Tuesday.

Riaz Haq said...

Russia remains one of the major contenders for a tendering procedure for building India’s fourth aircraft carrier; however, Indian defense officials have already grown concerned about Russia’s ethics after INS Vikramaditya’s three-fold cost increase and a five-year delay. Moreover, Moscow agreed to participate in India’s “Make in India” national program, but this has only further revealed its inability to live up to many of New Delhi’s expectations. In particular, difficulties are coming to light during the Indo-Russian fifth generation fighter jet multibillion-dollar program, with Russia currently failing to fulfill most of India’s indigenous production goals.

New Delhi’s growing dissatisfaction with the mutual partnership and the country’s quest for diversification are perpetuating the shift. India needs improvements and is keen on trying other suppliers; however, Moscow sees these moves as impinging on its current stance.

The Kremlin wants to slow down the impending downward trend, as well as leverage its influence over New Delhi, by skillfully utilizing the “Pakistan card.” By engaging with Pakistan, Russia leaves New Delhi with a hard choice: to honor its strategic commitment to Russia and make concessions or to observe Russian-Pakistani rapprochement, which could potentially erode India’s military advantage.

This maneuver comes in line with the Kremlin’s realpolitik strategy, which has become traditional over the recent years. In 2010, Vladimir Putin famously said that “Russia is not maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan as it takes into account the concerns of Indian partners.” Moscow was sensitive to the India-Pakistan rivalry before; however, altering geopolitical realities goaded Russian foreign policy into exploring new horizons.

Russian-Pakistani relations were far from harmonious during the previous decades. The Kremlin supplied Pakistan with weapons in 1960s but both countries eventually faced a major split, as Moscow selected New Delhi to be its strategic regional partner. Furthermore, Moscow and Islamabad had a proxy conflict during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, with Pakistan openly supporting the mujahideen. The geopolitical vector did not change after the USSR’s collapse. It is only now, after a quarter of a century, that Moscow is looking to rekindle bilateral relations.

The Kremlin has chosen its moment wisely. Islamabad has grown cautious lately about its alliance with the United States, as it perceives a lack of reliability from the White House. In particular, the recent U.S. refusal to subsidize Pakistan’s purchase of F-16 fighter jets may have pushed both countries farther away from each other, with Russia potentially emerging as an alternative supplier.

Interestingly, though, Moscow is not ready to move full-speed ahead and is keen on maintaining its distance while portraying other reasons for its recent engagements with Islamabad.

It is not a secret that Russia is extremely alarmed by the growth of ISIS and a possible collapse of Afghanistan, to the extent that it is even ready to engage with the Taliban. By actively coordinating with Pakistan, Moscow should be able to halt the radical jihadists’ future spillover to Central Asia. Therefore, Russia is trying to portray its own security concerns as the raison d’être behind the rapprochement.

Russia will not become a major Pakistani partner any time soon, and will remain closely connected to India. Still, the Kremlin’s move delivers a strong message to the Modi administration. In effect, New Delhi acknowledges Moscow’s security concerns but also understands that the Russia-Pakistani partnership would continue to evolve proportionally to India’s cooperation with the West.


http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/whats-behind-russias-rapprochement-with-pakistan/

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan army chief’s #Beijing visit heightens #US, #India jitters - http://FT.com #China #CPEC http://on.ft.com/1sv1iGc via @FT

The arrival of General Raheel Sharif in the Chinese capital on Monday — a day after India successfully tested an interceptor missile designed to destroy incoming nuclear capable missiles — follows a report by the Pentagon warning that China is seeking to establish a naval base in Pakistan.

The report, published last week, said China would “most likely seek to establish additional naval logistics hubs in countries with which it has a longstanding friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan.”
Chinese companies have helped Pakistan build the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea, the centrepiece of the $46bn pledged by Beijing for infrastructure spending linking China to Pakistan, known as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Many observers believe that China will ultimately seek to use the port as a naval base.
However, both Pakistani and Chinese officials said their understanding of the economic corridor is that it is limited to economic co-operation and has no security component.
Andrew Small, an expert on China Pakistan relations at the German Marshall Fund, said it was reasonable to expect some sort of basing arrangement “Having crossed the threshold with the Djibouti [in the Horn of Africa] deal, Pakistan would be a very obvious choice, and it appears that the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) views it that way.”
Such a step would be sure to anger India, and raise questions in Washington. Xu Jin, a professor of international relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, said that the Chinese-Pakistani friendship is “the closest thing China has to an alliance.”
While in Beijing, Gen Sharif met Chinese premier Li Keqiang and held talks with Fan Changlong, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, which oversees the country’s military.
Pakistan has long viewed China has a counterweight to its historic enemy, India. There are concerns in Islamabad that this week’s interceptor missile test may tip the balance of power between the two nuclear armed neighbours in India’s favour.
“In times of difficulty, Pakistan has always turned to its close friend China for help. I am certain the Indian test came up for detailed discussions between General Raheel Sharif and the Chinese,” a senior Pakistani foreign ministry official said.
Gen Sharif’s visit to China follows a recent squabble between Pakistan and Washington over congressional objections to US funding for eight new F-16 fighter jets meant for sale to Islamabad.
Following the spat, Pakistani officials said they were considering alternatives such as the Chinese J-10 for future purchases. Pakistan is already by far China’s main client for arms exports.
“The timing of this visit is very significant,” said Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to China and now head of the Islamabad Strategic Studies Institute (ISSI). “There’s a long history of China’s co-operation with Pakistan.”

Riaz Haq said...

#Modi Bolsters #India’s Ties With #America as #Trump's Vows to Limit immigration Worry Indian officials. #Obama #H1B

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/us/politics/narendra-modi-us-india.html?_r=0

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Another reason Washington and New Delhi have grown so close is the increasingly testy relationship between the United States and Pakistan, India’s longtime rival. Although Pakistan is formally an ally of the United States, American officials have made clear that India has displaced Pakistan in American interests and hearts.

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“We have much more to do with India today than has to do with Pakistan,” Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter said in April. “There is important business with respect to Pakistan, but we have much more, a whole global agenda with India, agenda that covers all kinds of issues.”

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The two sides also announced that they intended to complete a deal in which India will buy six nuclear reactors from Westinghouse by June 2017, fulfilling an agreement struck in 2005 by President George W. Bush. The price is still under discussion, but more difficult issues like liability have been resolved.

“We continue to discuss a wide range of areas where we can cooperate more effectively in order to promote jobs, promote investment, promote trade and promote greater opportunities for our people, particularly young people, in both of our countries,” President Obama said in the Oval Office during the meeting.

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“The United States is well aware of the talent that India has,” Mr. Modi said in Hindi. “We and the United States can work together to bring forward this talent, and use it for the benefit of mankind and use it for the benefit of innovations and use it to achieve new progress.”

Mr. Modi has made clear that he intends to set aside decades of standoffishness — rooted in India’s colonial experience — to cement closer ties with Washington, in part because the next American leader may not share President Obama’s enthusiasm for India.

The news media in India has extensively chronicled comments by Mr. Trump that critics have said were racist, his “America First” views and his unorthodox campaign. While Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has said little about India, his vows to tighten immigration policies worry Indian officials.

“Modi wants to get as much as he can out of Obama’s last months in office,” said Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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Mr. Trump has vowed to “cancel” the Paris climate agreement if elected, something Mr. Obama is eager to prevent. Once the accord enters into legal force, no nation can legally withdraw for four years.

“If the Paris agreement achieves ratification before Inauguration Day, it would be impossible for the Trump administration to renegotiate or even drop out during the first presidential term,” said Robert N. Stavins, the director of the environmental economics program at Harvard.

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The two sides also announced joint efforts for the United States to invest in India’s renewable energy development, including the creation of a $20 million finance initiative.

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The two countries finalized a deal that allows their forces to help each other with crucial supplies, and the United States formally recognized India as a major defense partner, which should allow India to buy some of the most sophisticated equipment in the United States arsenal.

India’s increasing willingness to form military partnerships with the United States is, in part, a result of its deepening worries about China. Recent patrols by Chinese submarines in the Bay of Bengal have unnerved New Delhi, and a 2014 visit to India by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, did nothing to soothe Indian sensibilities, as Chinese troops made an incursion into border territory that India claims as its own.

China’s refusal in the months since to resolve the territorial claims at the heart of the standoff has quietly infuriated Indian officials.

Riaz Haq said...

Pro-#India legislators seeking aid cut to #Pakistan defeated in #US House - The Economic Times

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/legislations-seeking-aid-cut-to-pakistan-defeated-in-us-house/articleshow/52807141.cms

Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen of Coalition Support Fund said it remained a critical tool to enable Pakistan to effectively deal with future challenges emerging from the US drawdown.

"It also remains a cost-effective tool for the US to remain engaged in the region and with Pakistan. We shouldn't be abandoning Pakistan, because we might actually have something even worse than what the gentleman describes if we turn our back on Pakistan," he said.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/52807141.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan not isolated. #Delhi is to #Washington what #Islamabad is to #Beijing. #US still quietly supports Pakistan
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1145063/pakistan-not-isolated/

Some recent events and statements originating in Washington, Warsaw (NATO summit) and Kabul, seemed to have created a triumphant, though largely misplaced impression that both India and Afghanistan have managed to encircle Pakistan. An appended perception was that of Islamabad’s international isolation. But these noises beg some reflection. Is Pakistan really isolated? Let us look around for an answer.

China has stuck its neck out for a mutually beneficial multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Russia too, is embarking on a new phase of relations with Pakistan, particularly after the latter’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

The World Bank has loaned some $5.5 billion to the country in the last three years, which wouldn’t be possible without a nod by Washington, which holds majority shares in the Bank.

And what about power brokers in Washington DC itself?

Well, one finds a lot of cockcrows, trying to belittle Pakistan; among them, Balochistan-fame congressmen like Dana Rohrabachar, or the Afghan-American Zalmay Khalilzad; although he has served as the US ambassador in Afghanistan, but in Washington he sounds more like the Afghan ambassador. During the July 12 proceedings of a sub-panel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Khalilzad and Bill Roggio, senior editor of the publication Long War Journal, accused the Pakistan military of maintaining ties with the Taliban and Haqqani militants.

This is the time to increase the pressure by suspending all assistance to Pakistan — military and civilian — and move towards isolating Pakistan internationally, including not supporting IMF renewal of financial support, Khalilzad argued in his testimony, which was vociferously shared with the media by Indian and Afghan officials in Washington.

Unlike these noises by presumably directly or otherwise paid lobbyists, remarks by Senator John McCain and other members of a bipartisan congressional delegation to Pakistan and Afghanistan after their Islamabad visit, offered an interesting read — contrary to the demands of isolating Pakistan.

“They have cleared out that part of Pakistan… they are looking at securing the Pakistan border in a more substantial way… I would acknowledge it a step in the right direction”, Senator Lindsey Graham said in Kabul, according to a Voice of America report. Graham also spoke of “a new attitude [under General Sharif] that is beginning to show some progress.

“The COAS says I hope you leave your troops here — he told us that — because if you withdraw too quickly the place is going to fall apart and it will hurt us,” Graham recalled during a press talk.

Senator McCain, too, acknowledged the progress made in Waziristan and underscored the importance of good relation among US, Pakistan and Afghanistan, but spoke of the Haqqani network as the “major impediment” in relations that required serious action.

True that the Haqqani Network represents a major hurdle in the trilateral relations and that nearly 40 per cent of the US security assistance is now tied to action against this entity, but this certainly doesn’t indicate a break or a tool to isolation, something acknowledged by spokespersons of the State Department and the Pentagon.

Both Mark Toner and the Pentagon Press Secretary, Peter Cook, for instance, made it clear that the that TTP terrorist Umar Khalifa Mansoor (responsible for the murder of over 130 children at APS, Peshawar) and “four other enemy combatants” were killed in a July 9 strike in view of “the specific relevance… and the common security interests shared by all three nations.”

In an obvious reference to the Zarb-e-Azb operation, the Senators as well as the spokespersons acknowledged “the progress in shutting down terrorist safe havens”, and restoration of government control in many parts of Fata and elsewhere Pakistan.

Riaz Haq said...

US Senator John McCain: "#America ignores #Pakistan at its peril". #Afghanistan #Terrorism #FATA #India https://www.ft.com/content/d97ccbe8-527e-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef …

First, the US mission in Afghanistan is the same today as it was in 2001: to disrupt and defeat terrorist networks that seek to attack its interests and homeland and to deny them safe haven. That mission remains urgent, and it is unfortunately not over yet.

Second, the US mission in Afghanistan is immeasurably more difficult without Pakistan’s co-operation in taking on terrorists that operate across the Afghan-Pakistani border at will. That is why enhanced co-operation between Afghanistan and Pakistan is essential. Likewise, the strategic imperative for improved relations between the US and Pakistan is clear — for the safety
of American troops and the success of their mission in Afghanistan, for the stability of the region and for the national security of both Pakistan and the US.

But recently, the US-Pakistan relationship has been strained. Among other things, limitations on US assistance to Pakistan and congressional reluctance to approve subsidies for the sale of defence articles have added to tensions between the two governments.

Despite this and other recent difficulties, US and Pakistani leaders cannot allow ambivalence and suspicion to fester. Common interests in counterterrorism, nuclear security and regional stability are too important and too urgent.

For too long, the US has viewed the bilateral relationship only through the prism of Afghanistan. To achieve real progress, the US must make clear its enduring commitment to Pakistan’s stability and economic growth.

For its part, Pakistan must take on and eliminate havens for terrorist groups such as the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad that operate within its borders, attack its neighbours and kill US forces. Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the army chief of staff General Raheel Sharif, have made recent commitments to do just that. Following through on these is critical.

This will be difficult for Pakistan. It will require political will and entail costly sacrifice in blood and treasure. That is why there will be sceptics in the country opposed to decisive efforts to defeat extremism.

But Mr Sharif and Gen Sharif have heard such pleas for restraint before. There were those who said it would be too hard to take on the Pakistani Taliban after it attacked a school in Peshawar and killed more than 130 children in 2014. Fortunately, Mr Sharif and Gen Sharif recognised the threat that these militants posed to Pakistan and took action. Thanks to these efforts, the perpetrator of the Peshawar school attack is no longer a threat to Pakistan or any other country.

In 2014, Pakistan launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan, a tribal area along the Afghan-Pakistani border where militants had operated with impunity for decades. During my visit to Miram Shah in North Waziristan, I saw the city’s bazaar that once housed bomb-making factories, arms dealers and office fronts for terrorist groups.

Riaz Haq said...

#Washington to expand multidimensional ties with #Pakistan, #American Sec of State Kerry assures Advisor Aziz

http://www.dawn.com/news/1273334

US Secretary of State John Kerry assured Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz that United States is ready to improve and expand its multidimensional partnership with Pakistan.

Aziz and Kerry met on the sidelines the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Ministerial Meeting being held in Laos, where both the dignitaries also exchanged views on the regional situation with special reference to Afghanistan.

According to a communiqué issued in Islamabad, Aziz and Kerry agreed on the importance of promoting the Afghan-led reconciliation process.

Editorial: Slipping Pak-US ties

US Secretary Kerry appreciated Pakistan's determined efforts to eliminate terrorist groups in Pakistan's tribal belt with considerable success.

“I would like to visit Pakistan in the near future to review bilateral cooperation and discuss regional issues,” he said.

Meanwhile, the ARF Ministerial Meeting, which was attended by 10 ASEAN members and 17 dialogue partners, concluded today.

Britain’s PM calls Nawaz to assure cooperation
British Prime Minister Theresa May said Pakistan is its dependable ally and assured Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif that both the countries will work together in the post-Brexit era and there will be “no adverse effects on the bilateral relations after Great Britain exits the EU”.

May, who telephoned Nawaz on Tuesday, said Pakistan and the United Kingdom will work together as bilateral partners.

She assured that Great Britain is committed to work with Pakistan in security related matters and strengthening democracy.

Nawaz expressed his confidence that under her leadership and vision, Britain will become ever stronger and continue playing important role in world affairs.

Riaz Haq said...

#China And #Pakistan Beware -- This Week, #India's #Modi And #USA's #Obama Sign Major War Pact via @forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/charlestiefer/2016/08/28/china-and-pakistan-beware-this-week-india-and-us-sign-major-war-pact/#4b479b8364e1

President Barack Obama meets with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India in June. (Photo by Dennis Brack-Pool/Getty Images)

Around August 30, in Washington, India and the U.S. will sign a major war pact that makes them logistical allies against, among others, the superpower China currently making a bold power grab in the South China Sea.

Specifically, Indian Defense Mister Manohar Parrikar will sign the deal during a two-day visit in Washington. The deal is the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), a foundational agreement for India and the U.S.. In this instance, the agreement provides for each to use the other globally for supplies, spare parts, services and refueling. Effectively, U.S. armed forces can operate out of Indian bases, and vice versa, on a simple basis.

For the U.S., this is part of the “pivot” to Asia intended by President Obama to meet a rising China. The U.S. Navy plans to deploy 60 percent of its surface ships in the Indo-Pacific in the near future. Instead of having to build facilities virtually from the ground up, as in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. has the benefit of simple arrangements for the tremendous Indian facilities.

For Prime Minister Modi, it is a major step for India away from its Cold War alliance with Russia, toward a new alliance with the U.S. (and Japan and Australia) to protect the Indian Ocean and the seas off Southeast Asia, especially from China. India remains on hostile terms with China from border disputes dating back to a war in the 1960s. And, the gigantic engines of their economies are, for the most part, rivals.

For both the U.S. and India, LEMOA responds to the powerful challenge of Xi Jinping’s artificial islands – with air bases — in the South China Sea. It may also matter against the common enemy of the U.S. and India in radical jihadists.

---------


There are prior deals and policies here. The U.S. recognized India as a Major Defense Partner. It brought India into the Missile Technology Control Regime. Among other aspects, the various deals expedite India obtaining the keys to the kingdom, namely, licenses for top U.S. defense technology. In other words, U.S. contractors are getting, through LEMOA as through prior deals, a much better launching pad from which to sell many billions of dollars of top-of-the-line armament to India. Conversely, India often requires a degree of coproduction domestically, so LEMOA and other deals will help India grow as a gigantic weapons dealer itself, selling to the rest of the world.

All these arms matter in many friction points. Take the nasty Islamist terrorist organization, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM). Pakistan’s powerful and dangerous intelligence arm, ISI, uses JEM against India, but it is also among a group of organizations backed by ISI that the U.S. considers a U.S. enemy, too. JEM’s chief is Masood Azhar. India tried unsuccessfully to tag Azhar at the United Nations as a terrorist. Who blocked it? China. So while the South China Sea may seem far off from India, China is breathing down India’s neck, up close and personal

The U.S. did not make the bellicose move in the South China Sea. Xi Jinping did. There are many downsides to an arms races. But if we do not move, we lose. We have little choice but to play catchup.

Riaz Haq said...

#China Warns #India: Hands Off #Balochistan. #CPEC #Pakistan

http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/OldNewsPage/?Id=8585&China/Warns/India:/Hands/Off/Balochistan

Beijing has broken its silence over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks on Balochistan with an influential think tank maintaining that “China will have to get involved if India intervenes in Balochistan.”

This sharp response given through an interview to IANS has already elicited a statement from the Congress party that has urged PM Modi to officially ask China what this involvement means.

In an interview to India’s IANS, Hu Shisheng, the director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said that India’s growing ties with the United States, and its new position on the South China Sea were ringing alarm bells in Beijing.

“The latest concern for China is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech from the Red Fort in which he referred to the issues like Kashmir (occupied by Pakistan) and Balochistan,” Hu said.

“It could be regarded as a watershed moment in India’s policy towards Pakistan. ” he added.

Hu said China fears India may use “anti-government” elements in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan where Beijing is building the $46 billion CPEC -- a key to the success of its ambitious One Road One Belt project.

“There is concern that India may take the same approach, which is believed by the Indian side Pakistan is taking, asymmetrically using anti-government factors in Pakistan,” Hu said according to IANS.

“If this kind of plot causes damage to the CPEC, China will have to get involved,” he said, referring to the alleged involvement of India in backing separatists in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

PM Modi’s decision to put the spotlights on Balochistan, with India now openly embracing what was earlier at best a covert program, was expected to elicit a China response by foreign policy experts here. More so as the CPEC is a prestigious program for China, connecting Xinjiang with the Gwadar port in Balochistan. This corridor passes through PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. India has consistently refused to join or support China’s One Belt, One Road program from the outset.

Hu told IANS, “This will not help Pakistan to become a normal country. And it will also further disturb India-China relations.”

Hu in fact spelt out the Chinese position on India’s relations with the US saying earlier they were not so concerned but the growing relations under PM Modi were sending an “alarming signal to China. It is a concern for China.”

He said it was imperative for India to resist the pressure being exerted by the US and Japan to counter China several issues said that earlier China was not particularly worried about growing India-US relations but now was concerned” Hu pointed out. He said this specifically on the increase in defence, technology and trade ties, referring alo to the Logistics Agreement being signed by India and the US.

“We also know that the US and Japan, as well as Australia, are very keen on getting India in their camp. They are also exerting pressure”he added.“They are also luring India by giving high-technology deals and advanced military weapons. It is up to India whether India can resist this kind of temptation.”

On India’s stand on the South China Sea, Hu added.“In the past, India’s stand on the South China Sea was impartial. Indian is getting more and more involved. This attitude is another concern for China.”

“Our problem is with the US. We can see India is becoming more vocal in issuing joint statements with the US and Japan on the South China Sea,” he added.

Riaz Haq said...

President Obama set the ball rolling when in a major speech he referred to Pakistan as an ‘abysmally dysfunctional country’. This need not have been taken seriously because President Obama had also stated that Raymond Davis was a diplomat. In fact earlier Presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Clinton had all made statements that turned out to be, well, not true. President Obama’s statement was followed by a hearing of the Joint Sub-Committee on Foreign Affairs “Pakistan, Friend or Foe”. While concluding the hearing the Chairman, Mr Matt Salmon said: “For the record, I personally believe that we should completely cut off all funding to Pakistan. I think that would be the right first step. And then, a State Sponsor of Terrorism declaration. … Right now we have the worst policy that we could possibly have; all we are doing is rewarding thugs.” The panel of ‘experts’ that the Sub Committee had lined up were led by, not unsurprisingly, Mr Zalmay Khalilzad a former US Ambassador to Afghanistan who gave his expert opinion that ‘One may conclude now that Pakistan is a State Sponsor of Terror”.
These developments galvanized all those in and out of the woodwork whose livelihood and status depends on ‘analyzing’ Pakistan and concluding that it is the ‘epicenter of terror’ and that it’s military and intelligence assets are behind every act of terror committed across its borders. In their wisdom no one talked of the US role and past association with the Taliban against the former USSR. There was no mention of the policy failures that have led to the debacle in Afghanistan, the rise of the Islamic State, the spread of Al Qaeda and the complete mess in the Middle East with horrendous sufferings being inflicted on the people — little Aylan Kurdi and Onan being the proof of these atrocities. Nor did anyone ‘analyze’ the price paid by Pakistan in lives, in treasure and in the destruction of its social fabric from the fallout from Afghanistan– and of course no one explained why Pakistan would persist in a policy that would lead to its own destruction and why it was not rolling over and playing dead with all the criticism and punishment being heaped upon it. Finally no one has asked what would happen if Pakistan were to actually become what it is being accused of and what would happen to the region as a consequence of that.
Perhaps there are sane and rational minds that do not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state and that it is central to the resolution of Afghanistan and peace in the region. They probably also understand the regional animosities that spur hawks in Afghanistan and India and other places to pursue their own interests regardless of the consequences. India treats China and Pakistan as a single threat and this becomes a justification for it to do everything — overt and covert — that it is doing, including isolating and destabilizing Pakistan and displacing the US in Afghanistan. Afghanistan besieged by the Taliban and at the mercy of the US blames Pakistan for all its woes and seeks to exploit the India-Pakistan divide and India’s ambitions. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become the target and there is a convergence of interests in the efforts to derail it. There is also perhaps some understanding of the realities in Pakistan; that it has democracy and that this democracy is being supported by the military, that Pakistan is moving towards changing its internal environment in its own interest and that this change will sideline the elements that threaten it, that Pakistan has to move at a pace and with such deliberation that it does not allow exploitation from outside to destabilize it, that it has to focus on internal security and the economy to sustain the efforts it is making without being distracted by external pressures. Pakistan has to keep in mind the endgame and the end state in Afghanistan.


http://www.spearheadresearch.o rg/

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan in Talks With #Russia to Purchase Su-35 fighter Jets for #PAF http://sputniknews.com/military/20160905/1044975853/pakistan-russia-ambassador-su35.html … via @SputnikInt

Pakistan Air Force Chief of Staff had fruitful talks in Moscow in July on purchasing of Russian Su-35 fighter jets.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force Sohail Aman had "fruitful talks" in Moscow in July on purchasing of Russian Su-35 (NATO reporting name: Flanker-E) fighter jets, Pakistani Ambassador to Russia Qazi Khalilullah told Sputnik. "Chief of Air Staff Marshal Sohail Aman had fruitful talks with the Russian partners on this issue in July," Khalilullah said answering a question on whether Islamabad could purchase the Su-35 aircraft. According to the official, the Pakistani Air Force "is considering different options of deepening cooperation with Russia."

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20160905/1044975853/pakistan-russia-ambassador-su35.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan, #Russia Negotiating Deal on #Russian Su-35, Su-37 Fighter Jets. #PAF https://sputniknews.com/military/20160908/1045073021/pakistan-russia-negotiating-fightersu-jets.html … via @SputnikInt

Islamabad and Moscow are negotiating a deal on Su-35 and Su-37 jets, Shahab Qadir Khan, deputy director of export promotion services in the Pakistani Defense Export Promotion Organization, told Sputnik.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/military/20160908/1045073021/pakistan-russia-negotiating-fightersu-jets.html
"Pakistan is involved in negotiations with Russia on a deal for Su-35 and Su-37. We are in initial stage now," Qadir Khan said.

According to Qadir Khan, the Pakistani Defense Ministry's delegation which came to the Army-2016 expo includes technical experts, who assess capabilities of the jets as well as look for Russian helicopters. "We already have Russian transport helicopters Mi-17, but we are looking for other helicraft, and we are looking at assessment of Mi-35 to buy in the near future," Qadir Khan added. The Army-2016 expo, organized by the Russian Defense Ministry, kicked off on Tuesday and is due to last through Sunday. The forum is held in the military-themed Patriot Park in Kubinka near Moscow and in a number of locations in Russia's military districts. The event brings together representatives from the Russian defense industry, research institutes, universities, as well as foreign companies. Over 800 Russian and foreign participants are expected to be involved in some 7,000 exhibitions throughout the week. The forum's participants and guests are attending a number of conferences and roundtables to discuss the future development of military technology.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/military/20160908/1045073021/pakistan-russia-negotiating-fightersu-jets.html

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan & #Russia military to hold first ever joint drills this year. #China #India #America #Asia http://toi.in/sXUTqb via @TOIWorld

Pakistan and Russia are set to hold their first-ever joint military exercises later this year, media reported today, reflecting increased military cooperation between the two former Cold War rivals.
Around 200 military personnel from the two sides would take part in the joint military exercises, The Express Tribune quoted a senior Pakistani official as saying.
The move comes amidst increasing defence ties between Moscow and Islamabad as the latter was also thinking to buy advanced Russian warplanes.
Pakistan's ambassador to Moscow Qazi Khalilullah told the newspaper that this is the first time that military personnel from the two countries would be taking part in joint military drills called 'Friendship-2016'.
He, however, did not divulge further details about the nature of the exercises or dates.
The development, Khalilullah said, reflected increased cooperation between the two countries.
"This obviously indicates a desire on both sides to broaden defence and military-technical cooperation," he told a Russian news agency last week.
The joint military drill is seen as another step in growing military-to-military cooperation, indicating a steady growth in bilateral relationship between the two countries, whose ties had been marred by Cold War rivalry for decades, the paper said.
Islamabad decided to broaden its foreign policy options after its relations with the US deteriorated after secret CIA raid in Abbottabad killed al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in May 2011.
Pakistan's relations with the US were soured recently when US lawmakers blocked funds for the sale of eight Lockheed Martin Corporation's F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan.
Pakistan decided to look at alternative sources to purchase the aircraft including from Jordan.
Over the last 15 months, the chiefs of Pakistan's Army, Navy and Air Force travelled to Russia. The flurry of high-level exchanges between the two nations resulted in the signing of a deal for the sale of four MI-35 attack helicopters to Islamabad.
The formal agreement, which was signed in Moscow in August 2015, was considered a major policy shift on part of Russia in the wake of growing strategic partnership between the US and India.

Riaz Haq said...

US State Dept: #US to stay with #Pakistan 'long into the future'

http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-to-stay-with-pakistan-long-into-the-future-116091300165_1.html

The US would continue to stay engaged with Pakistan and provide it economic assistance "long into the future", said a State Department spokesperson.

In a statement shared with Dawn online, the State Department on Monday also emphasised the need for Pakistan to take immediate steps to stop cross-border terrorist attacks into Afghanistan.

"We have urged the government of Pakistan to redouble its standing commitment to closer counter terrorism cooperation with Afghanistan against all groups that pose a long-term security threat to both countries," the official said.


The State Department pointed out that "robust civilian and security assistance" to Pakistan allowed the US to jointly work on issues important to both countries, such as energy, economic growth, security, education and health.

"The US has a joint interest with Pakistan in the development of Pakis­tan's civilian institutions and its economic growth. Our diplomatic and assistance engagement will continue long into the future," Dawn online reported citing the statement.

The State Department spokesperson, while explaining the rationale for staying engaged with Pakistan, noted that the country had suffered greatly at the hands of terrorists and violent extremists.

"The US stands in solidarity with the people of Pakistan and all who fight the menace of terrorism, and we are grateful for the sacrifices the Pakistani military has made in shutting down terrorist safe havens, most recently in the North Waziristan operation," the official said.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russian troops arrive in #Pakistan for 1st-ever joint drill

https://www.rt.com/news/360384-russia-pakistan-joint-exercise/


Russian troops have arrived in Pakistan on Friday to take part in two-week military exercise, a first in the two countries’ modern history. Moscow and Islamabad were on opposite sides during the Cold War.
Around 70 Russian soldiers and officers along with some 130 Pakistani counterparts are taking part in the war games called Friendship 2016, which kick-start on Saturday. The name is a symbolical reference to the old Cold War tensions between Moscow and Islamabad, which the two capitals are now trying to overcome.

On Friday, an Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane delivered the troops to Pakistan from their home base in southern Russia.

The exercise is to take place in a mountainous area in the eastern Punjab province. Both countries have long experience of counterinsurgency operations in this difficult terrain, which they want to share with each other.

The exercise was first announced in January and is a signal that “Moscow and Islamabad are interested in deepening military-to-military relations,” Pakistan's ambassador to Moscow Qazi Khalilullah told TASS.

“This obviously indicates a desire on both sides to broaden defense and military-technical cooperation,” he said.

The Friendship 2016 drill is going ahead despite speculation that they may be canceled, which surfaced after tensions between Pakistan and India escalated in the wake of the September 18 attack on Indian troops stationed in Uri, a town in the disputed province of Kashmir.

Moscow informed New Delhi of the scheduled joint exercise with Pakistan and is certain that they should not concern India, considering that they are conducted far from the disputed territories, Zamir Kabulov, the chief or Russian Foreign Ministry's Middle East department told RIA Novosti.

Russian military cooperation with Pakistan has been gaining pace over the past few years, making a turn from the past, when Islamabad was a key supporter of the Taliban insurgency in Soviet-occupied Afghanistan.

In 2014, Moscow lifted a longstanding ban on sale of arms to Pakistan. Last year the two countries signed a deal on four Russian Mil Mi-35M attack helicopters, which are meant to replace Pakistan's aging US-made AH-1 Cobras.

Riaz Haq said...

#India wary of growing #Russia-#Pakistan military ties

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/india-wary-of-growing-russia-pakistan-military-ties

India has expressed concern over Russia's fledgling but growing defence relationship with Pakistan, ahead of a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of a world summit in India.

Mr Putin has, in recent years, moved to establish defence ties with Pakistan as India began diversifying beyond Russia for its defence equipment and deepening ties with the US.

Russia and Pakistan have held discussions over the sale of military hardware and signed an agreement last year for the sale of four attack helicopters to Islamabad. In a sign of their growing defence engagement, the two countries held their first joint military exercise, "Friendship 2016", that ended on Monday, much to New Delhi's unease.

"We have conveyed our views to the Russian side that military cooperation with Pakistan, which is a state that sponsors and practises terrorism as a matter of state policy, is a wrong approach and it will only create further problems," India's Ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran was quoted as saying to Russian news agency Ria Novosti last Friday.

Russia and India are fond of calling each other "time-tested friends" and are Cold War allies with a diplomatic relationship dating back to 1947.

For years, India depended on Russia for all its military supply. While the two countries remain major defence partners, India is now increasingly sourcing weapons from other countries such as the US and France. Moscow has lost out on major jet and helicopter deals to other countries. Bilateral trade between India and Russia is below US$10 billion (S$13.8 billion), partly due to poor transport links. India's trade with the US is now more than US$100 billion.

Officials said Russia would remain an important country for India but experts noted that ties between Pakistan and Russia would remain an irritant for India.

"We have always seen Russia as a close ally. Russia will remain important but the Modi government is clearly annoyed with Russia over Pakistan and it is making that clear," said former Indian foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.

Riaz Haq said...

#BRICSSummit: #India's & #Modi's Failure. #China. #Russia refused to name #Pakistan on #terrorism http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/web-edits/brics-summit-why-china-and-russia-did-not-name-pakistan-on-terrorism-3087651/ … via @IndianExpress

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just been delivered an unhappy lesson at the just-concluded BRICS summit in Goa: though nine-tenths of geopolitics is about bluff, the critical one-tenth is about knowing when to fold.
The Prime Minister proclaimed, in his closing statement at the summit, that BRICS member-states were “agreed that those who nurture, shelter, support and sponsor such forces of violence and terror are as much a threat to us as the terrorists themselves”. The BRICS 109 paragraph summit declaration, however, doesn’t have a single sentence reflecting this purported consensus—not even the words “nurture”, “shelter” or “sponsor”.
Worse, from India’s optic, the summit declaration calls for action against all United Nations-designated terrorist organisations which include the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad but names only the Islamic State and al-Qaeda’s proxy, Jabhat al-Nusra—both threats to China and Russia but not to India.

China’s President Xi Jinping, said success against terrorism made it imperative to “addresses both symptoms and root causes”—a stock-phrase Islamabad often uses to refer to the conflict over Kashmir. Russian President Vladimir Putin made no mention of terrorism emanating from Pakistan at all.
Add to this, the United States’ studied refusal to be drawn into harsh action against Pakistan and there’s a simple lesson to be drawn: less than a month after it began, the Prime Minister’s campaign to isolate Pakistan is not gaining momentum.

Riaz Haq said...

#China, #Russia, #Pakistan #Superpower Triangle Becoming Reality http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/11/china-russia-pakistan-super-power/ … via @ValueWalk

The Russia, China and Pakistan superpower triangle is becoming a reality. Moscow has just announced it will hold trilateral Russian-Chinese-Pakistani talks next month.

As theories around the Russia, China and Pakistan superpower triangle continue to build up, Moscow has just expressed its interest in strengthening ties with Islamabad and Beijing. The agenda of next month’s talks will be establishing a wider regional partnership on Afghanistan.

Zamir Kabulov, Russian Foreign Ministry’s director of the Second Asian Department, announced on Monday that the Russian-Chinese-Pakistani consultations will be held in Moscow in December.

“We are discussing this with the Chinese, the Iranians, Indians, Pakistanis. There is work on specifics,” Kabulov said, adding that it’s in the regional nations’ “natural” interests to guard themselves from terrorist threats in the region.


The news comes amid rising war tensions between India and Pakistan. Although Russia remains India’s key weapons supplier, there is a number of reasons why the Russia, China and Pakistan superpower triangle is becoming a reality.

Russia has been actively strengthening its military, economic and diplomatic ties with both China and Pakistan. Even though Pakistan is Russia’s Cold War rival, Moscow is understandably keen on forming an alliance with Islamabad and Beijing. China and Pakistan have been traditional allies for decades. Beijing has always provided its military and diplomatic support to Islamabad against its historical enemy, India.

Forming the Russian-Chinese-Pakistani superpower triangle would not only allow them to impose efficient measures to counter the spread of terrorism and radicalism in the region but also stand up to America’s growing influence in the region. In fact, given that Russia, China and Pakistan are all nuclear powers, their alliance also makes them an intimidating nuclear force to be reckoned with.

Russia, China and Pakistan have about 7,620 nuclear warheads (according to the official figures provided by the SIPRI) combined. That’s a serious advantage in a potential military confrontation against any enemy of such a superpower triangle, whether it’s India or the United States.


Interestingly, Russia announced the Russian-Chinese-Pakistani talks a few days after India, Pakistan’s traditional nemesis, signed a historical nuclear deal with Japan. In fact, it was the first-ever nuclear deal signed by Japan, which is the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack, with a non-NPT nation.

India, like Pakistan, never signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Seeing that India is strengthening ties with its regional allies, Russia and China decided to ramp up their support for Pakistan. The Russian-Chinese-Pakistani talks in December will mark yet another indication of Russia and China’s growing interest toward Pakistan.

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China has repeatedly pledged to help Pakistan in case of any foreign aggression. It also adds to the fact that China supplies Pakistan with more weapons than any other country in the world. For Russia, meanwhile, Pakistan is a potentially lucrative buyer of its advanced weapons.

Aside from strengthening military and diplomatic ties with Islamabad, Beijing is also actively building nuclear reactors in Pakistan. So basically, the superpower triangle between China, Russia and Pakistan can become an intimidating force in the region.

Riaz Haq said...

#Chinese naval ships in #Pakistan's #Gwadar port challenge #India's regional policy. #Russia #Iran http://scroll.in/article/822619/chinese-naval-ships-in-pakistans-gwadar-port-call-for-a-rethink-of-indias-regional-policy … via @scroll_in

The transformation of Gwadar port on the Pakistan coast as a base for Chinese Navy ships was long expected, but when media reports actually appeared on Friday to that effect, it was startling news. The reports quoted Pakistani officials saying that China proposes to deploy its naval ships in coordination with the Pakistan Navy to safeguard Gwadar port, which is the gateway to the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

India would have had some intelligence tip-off, which probably explains the mysterious episode on November 14 of an Indian submarine lurking in the vicinity of Pakistani territorial waters. It was brusquely shooed away by the Pakistani Navy. Of course, the corridor was operationalised a fortnight ago with Chinese ships docking at Gwadar to carry the first containers brought by a Chinese trade convoy from Xinjiang for despatch to the world market.

Viewed from many perspectives, the month of November becomes a defining moment in the geopolitics of our region. But the strangest bit of news would be that earlier this month, Gwadar also received Russia’s Federal Security Services chief Alexander Bogdanov. It was a hush-hush inspection tour aimed at assessing the efficacy of Russian ships using the port during their long voyages, to assert Moscow’s return to the global stage.

Equally, this is the first visit by a Russian spy chief to Pakistan in over two decades and it took place just as America elected a new president, Donald Trump. Maybe the timing is coincidental, but more likely, it is not. The Russian diplomacy invariably moves in lockstep. Bogdanov’s visit was scheduled just a few weeks before the planned trilateral strategic dialogue between Russia, China and Pakistan, ostensibly regarding the Afghan situation, in Moscow next month. Bogdanov reportedly sought a formal Russian-Pakistani collaborative tie-up over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Moscow wouldn’t have made such a move without coordinating with China first. At a meeting in Moscow with his Chinese counterpart, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted as saying that China-Russia military cooperation is “at an all-time high and it will contribute to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent and beyond”.

Meanwhile, Chinese regional diplomacy, too, is moving in tandem. The Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wangquan (who is also vice-chairman of China’s Military Commission, which is headed by President Xi Jinping) paid a three-day visit to Iran last week. Chang’s visit held considerable geopolitical significance for the region and he described his meetings as signifying a turning point in the China-Iran strategic partnership. It is useful to recall that during Xi’s visit to Iran in January, the two countries had signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement that included a call for much closer defence and intelligence ties.

Riaz Haq said...

#American engineers find #India's home-made first aircraft carrier is a dud. Need another 10 years to make it work http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/11/30/u-s-effort-to-help-india-build-up-navy-hits-snag/?mod=e2fb When top American naval engineers recently inspected India’s first locally made aircraft carrier they expected to find a near battle-ready ship set to help counter China’s growing sway in the Indian Ocean.

Instead, they discovered the carrier wouldn’t be operational for up to a decade and other shortcomings: no small missile system to defend itself, a limited ability to launch sorties and no defined strategy for how to use the ship in combat. The findings alarmed U.S. officials hoping to enlist India as a bulwark against China, people close to the meeting said.

“China’s navy will be the biggest in the world soon, and they’re definitely eyeing the Indian Ocean with ports planned in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh,” said retired Admiral Arun Prakash, the former commander of India’s navy. “The Indian navy is concerned about this.”

The February carrier inspection, in the port of Kochi, formed part of U.S. plans to share aircraft carrier technology with India. Indian naval officials followed up with a tour of an American shipbuilding yard in Virginia and strategy briefings at the Pentagon in September, the people close to the meetings said.

The U.S. and India are drawing closer politically and militarily. The two have participated in joint naval exercises with Japan. The U.S. has agreed to sell New Delhi everything from attack helicopters to artillery. Washington has approved proposals by Lockheed Martin and Boeing Co. to make advanced jet fighters in India. And in August, the two countries signed a military logistics-sharing accord.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia and #Pakistan slowly move towards an embrace. #India #China #CPEC #Gwadar @AJEnglish
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/12/russia-pakistan-slowly-move-embrace-161203083811644.html

Or, how Russia got a warm-water port without firing a shot.

Ahmed Rashid is a journalist and the author of five books on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia. His latest book is 'Pakistan on the Brink, the future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West'.

After decades of hostility, Russia and Pakistan are gingerly trying to improve relations. Russia is cautiously wooing Pakistan in a bid to temper Islamabad's support for the Afghan Taliban and to end the civil war in Afghanistan, which is threatening Central Asia - the soft underbelly of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union territories.

Pakistan faces increasing isolation in the region - spurned by India, Afghanistan and Iran, and criticised by the US and NATO countries - because of its continued harbouring of the Afghan Taliban. At present, it is solely dependent on Chinese economic and political support.

It is not surprising, therefore, that Pakistan is desperately keen to rebuild relations with Russia. Islamabad would like to use warmer ties with Moscow to counter US and western pressure and be able to boast of more than one ally in the region.

-----

Pakistan offered Russia the use of Gwadar, its new Chinese-built port on the Gulf, which is close to Iran and opposite Oman. From Tsarist times, Russia has always wanted a port in the ''warm waters'' of the Gulf. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan was convinced that the Russian dream was to have a base on Pakistan's Gulf coastline. Ironically, Pakistan is now offering the same facility.

However, Gwadar port is yet to become fully operational and it is surrounded by insurgencies in Afghanistan and Balochistan province. Its capacity is being enhanced by a Chinese-built network of roads that will eventually connect to the Chinese border in northern Pakistan.

Use of the port by foreign ships is still some way off, and Pakistan has not made it clear if it would allow Russian warships to dock there. The Chinese navy has already been granted landing rights at the port.

Russia has also agreed to sell helicopters to Pakistan, lifting its decades-old arms embargo against Islamabad, while India is now looking for arms from Western nations such as the US and France.


Riaz Haq said...

#Russia throws its weight behind #CPEC, #China-#Pakistan corridor, keeps #India on tenterhooks http://toi.in/eJCcoa via @timesofindia

Russia's nebulous public position on its growing ties with Pakistan continues to give sleepless nights to Indian policymakers who have sought to isolate Islamabad on the issue of terrorism.
After it officially denied reports that it had shown any interest in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Moscow has not just declared strong support for the China-funded project but also announced its intention to link its own Eurasian Economic Union project with CPEC.
CPEC, which will link Gwadar in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province to Xinjiang in China, remains a major bugbear for Indian foreign policy as it passes through the Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (Pok) claimed by India. Beijing has shown scant regard for India's concerns despite PM Narendra Modi himself having taken up the issue of Chinese involvement in the disputed territory with President Xi Jinping.
Moscow last month emphatically denied Pakistan media reports that it was looking to involve itself in CPEC by acquiring access to the port built by China at Gwadar. Russia's ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Y Dedov has now been quoted as saying that Russia and Pakistan have held discussions to merge Moscow's Eurasian Economic Union project with the CPEC.
Dedov said Russia "strongly" supported CPEC as it was important for Pakistan's economy and also regional connectivity.
The mixed signals emanating from Moscow, as strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney said, are injecting uncertainty in the direction of the Russia-India relationship whose trajectory long epitomized constancy and stability.

"It is as if Moscow no longer sees India as a reliable friend or partner. Indeed, by seeking common cause with India's regional adversaries — including by supporting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through internationally disputed territory and engaging with the Pakistan-backed Taliban — Russia is challenging India's core interests," said Chellaney.

India continues to officially maintain that it doesn't see any "downward trend" in relations with Russia even as it works behind the scenes to convince Moscow that Pakistan remained the fountainhead of terrorism in the region. For India though, Russia further queered the situation in Afghanistan by declaring that it regarded Afghan Taliban as a national military-political movement. Russia is looking to engage the Taliban apparently to defeat IS but, as the MEA spokesperson warned last week, India wants any engagement with Taliban to respect the internationally recognized red lines, including giving up violence and severing ties with al-Qaida.
The comments made by Dedov are only the latest in a series of Russian doublespeak on Pakistan this year. As it officially conveyed to Moscow, India was disturbed by Russia's decision to hold its first ever joint military exercise with Pakistan days after Uri terror strike which left 19 Indian soldiers dead. The Russians justified it by saying that the exercise was meant to help Pakistan deal with terrorism

At the Brics Goa summit in October, Russia chose not to help India publicly name Pakistan based terrorist outfits like Lashkar and Jaish in the official declaration in the face of Chinese resistance.
Russia continues to insist that its ties with Pakistan will not come at India's cost. Asked about the Russia-Pakistan military exercise though, at the recent Heart of Asia conference, Russia's presidential envoy to Pakistan Zamir Kabulov said Moscow didn't complain about India's close cooperation with the US and so India also shouldn't complain about "much low level" of cooperation between Russia and Pakistan. India may or may not complain, but it's certainly watching with eyes wide open.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia Publicly Favors #Pakistan Over #India. #Modi #BJP http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/russia-publicly-favors-pakistan-vs-india/ … via @ValueWalk

When Russia rejected India’s efforts in November to isolate Pakistan politically, tensions between Moscow and New Delhi reached their peak. While concerns are rising within the Indian government, Russia continues to warm up to Pakistan and has recently shown interest in Pakistan’s joint project with China, the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Earlier this month, Alexey Dedov, the Russian Ambassador to Pakistan, declared Russia’s strong support for the upcoming lucrative project. He also announced that Russia wants to link the Eurasian Economic Union project with the CPEC, a move that would further deteriorate relations between Moscow and New Delhi.

The CPEC is a sensitive issue for India because the project passes through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region in Kashmir. By backing the project, Russia automatically declares its support for Pakistan’s position in the long-standing Kashmir issue, a major development in Russian-Indian relations that could end their seven-decade friendship once and for all.

-----

India is worried that its nearly 70-year friendship with Russia is about to end. Russia is warming up to India’s biggest historical enemy, Pakistan, which inevitably has led to tensions between New Delhi and Moscow. So even though India and Russia were very close for nearly seven decades, Russia-Indian relations have come crashing down over the last two years.

Geopolitics is the reason the relationship between the two countries is deteriorating. Moscow and New Delhi have backed one another on the international diplomatic sphere for decades. But when Russia refused to support India’s bid to turn Pakistan into a pariah state this year, Moscow took a major step away from its friendship with New Delhi.

Russia and India may have signed large-scale military deals over the past seven decades, but when Moscow held its first-ever joint military drills this year with Pakistan – India’s biggest adversary – it was a sign that Russia is trying to send a message.

Last week, Moscow and Islamabad held their first-ever foreign office consultations, leaving India understandably worried that Russia is further deepening its ties to Pakistan. During those consultations in Islamabad, Russian and Pakistani officials discussed a wide variety of regional issues and pointed out some areas of mutual interest, including economic cooperation.

According to the Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistani and Russian officials “exchanged views on important global and regional developments.” The ministry added in the statement that “it was also decided that the next round of consultations will be convened in Moscow in 2017.”

Just last year, nobody in their right mind would believe that Russia could make friends with its Cold War rival Pakistan. But by selling four Mi-35M helicopters to Pakistan in 2015, Russia mutely announced huge changes in its geopolitical strategies. Then in October 2015, Russia and Pakistan held their first-ever joint military exercises labeled “Druzhba” (friendship), which sent India into frenzy. However, India remained mute about the drills for the most part because it still has a number of pending military deals with Russia it doesn’t want to lose over its resentment.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan, #Russia & #China to hold trilateral meeting on regional issues including #Afghanistan in #Moscow. #India

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-to-attend-trilateral-meet-with-russia-and-china-4440521/

Pakistan Thursday said its foreign secretary will travel to Russia to participate in a trilateral meeting with Russia and China next week which will discuss key regional issues including peace process in Afghanistan.
“The Foreign Secretary will lead the Pakistani delegation in this meeting. This is an existing forum for undertaking informal discussions on issues of regional peace and stability, including situation in Afghanistan,” Foreign Office (FO) spokesman Nafees Zakaria said at the weekly press briefing here.
The trilateral meeting will be held on December 27 and peace in Afghanistan will be on the top of the agenda due to increasing threat of ISIS to Central Asia, which is considered as Russian backyard.
There are also reports of contacts between Taliban and Russian officials as the latter recognise the importance of Taliban in checking the threat of ISIS. Zakaria said peace and stability in Afghanistan was in the interest of Pakistan and the entire region.
“In this spirit, we remain committed and extend all cooperation to the efforts towards bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan has played a very positive role in bringing warring factions to the negotiating table. Whenever we are approached to help bring the warring factions to the negotiating table, we will assist,” he said.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia, #Pakistan, #China warn of increased #ISIS (#Daesh) threat in #Afghanistan. #India #Taliban http://reut.rs/2i3xLkN via @Reuters

Russia, China and Pakistan warned on Tuesday that the influence of Islamic State (IS) was growing in Afghanistan and that the security situation there was deteriorating.

Representatives from the three countries, meeting in Moscow, also agreed to invite the Afghan government to such talks in the future, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

"(The three countries) expressed particular concern about the rising activity in the country of extremist groups including the Afghan branch of IS," ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters after the meeting.

The United States, which still has nearly 10,000 troops in Afghanistan more than 15 years after the Islamist Taliban were toppled by U.S.-backed Afghan forces, was not invited to the Moscow talks.

The gathering, the third in a series of consultations between Russia, China and Pakistan that has so far excluded Kabul, is likely to deepen worries in Washington that it is being sidelined in negotiations over Afghanistan's future.

Officials in Kabul and Washington have said that Russia is deepening its ties with Taliban militants fighting the government, though Moscow has denied providing aid to the insurgents.

Zakharova said Russia, China and Pakistan had "noted the deterioration of the security situation (in Afghanistan)".

The three countries agreed a "flexible approach to remove certain figures from sanctions lists as part of efforts to foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement," she added.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani last month asked the United Nations to add the Taliban's new leader to its sanctions list, further undermining a stalled peace process.

Earlier on Tuesday, Afghan Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmad Shekib Mostaghni said Kabul had not been properly briefed about the Moscow meeting.

"Discussion about the situation in Afghanistan, even if well-intentioned, in the absence of Afghans cannot help the real situation and also raises serious questions about the purpose of such meetings," he said.

A number of Afghan provincial capitals have come under pressure from the Taliban this year while Afghan forces have been suffering high casualty rates, with more than 5,500 killed in the first eight months of 2016.

An offshoot of Islamic State has claimed responsibility for several attacks in the last year.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia, #China support taking #Afghan #Taliban off #UN sanctions list. #India #Pakistan #Terrorism

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1277084/russia-china-favour-taking-taliban-off-un-sanctions-list/

Russia and China, being permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, have decided to work towards delisting the Afghan Taliban from the world body’s sanctions list in a move, they said, is aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Afghanistan’s government and insurgent groups.

The announcement came in a joint statement issued after the trilateral meeting involving senior officials from Pakistan, Russia and China. The three-way talks that discussed the current situation of Afghanistan were held in Moscow on Tuesday.

Interestingly, Afghanistan was not part of the discussions, causing concerns in Kabul. The joint communique, however, said all the three countries agreed to proceed with consultations in an expanded format and would welcome the participation of Afghanistan.

The most significant takeaway of the Moscow meeting was Russia and China’s announcement to show a ‘flexible approach’ to delisting Afghan individuals from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban.

The participants agreed to continue their efforts towards further facilitating the Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan according to the known principles of reintegration of the armed opposition into peaceful life, the joint statement reads.

It was not immediately clear how Afghanistan’s government and the United States would react to the move by Beijing and Moscow to remove some Afghan Taliban commanders from the UN sanctions list.

The development, nevertheless, is an indication that both Russia and China are now flexing their muscles to play a more proactive role in the Afghan peace process that could not make any headway due to the current hiccup in ties between Kabul and Islamabad.

The Ghani administration has accused Pakistan of providing sanctuaries to the Afghan Taliban leadership and the Haqqani network. It also asked Islamabad to use force against these groups since Taliban refused to enter into the negotiations.

Pakistan, however, made it clear that it does not harbour any Taliban on its soil and insisted that all-inclusive peace process is the only way forward to achieve lasting peace in Afghanistan.

Observers believe that the outcome of trilateral meeting in Moscow is a major diplomatic success for Pakistan since two big powers—Russia and China—vindicated its stance by supporting the Afghan peace process. More importantly, this also showed increased cooperation between Pakistan and Russia, which during the cold-war era were in opposite camps mainly due to the Afghan conflict.

The trilateral meeting in Moscow also means that Pakistan, Russia and China have now convergence of opinion on how to deal with the long running conflict in Afghanistan, where the Da’ish is also trying to establish a foothold.

Kabul slams tripartite meeting in Moscow

The three-way talks in Moscow minced no words in expressing concerns over what they called the ‘deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan’.

They particularly voiced concern regarding the increased activities of extremist groups, including Da’ish-affiliates in the country.

Riaz Haq said...

The “Crises of Room”—Robert Kaplan
January 2, 2017 | Filed under: Security and tagged with: Afghanistan, bombs falling on Gaza, Indian Ocean, social media, West Bank

While the Americans and Europeans focus on globalization, the appeal of nationalism and military power is growing in Eurasia. Missile and bomb tests, biological warfare programs, and the development of chemical weapons are “the products of a prosperous, liberalizing Asia,” Bracken notes. What the West has “failed to recognize” is that the technologies of war and wealth creation have always been closely connected: from Asia’s economic rise has come its military rise. In the early Cold War years, Asian military forces were primarily lumbering, World War II–type armies whose primary purpose, though never stated, was national consolidation.........


But as national wealth accumulated and the computer revolution took hold, Asian militaries from the oil-rich Middle East to the tiger economies of the Pacific developed full-fledged, military-civilian post-industrial complexes, with missiles and fiber optics and cellular phones. ..........

An unbroken belt of countries from Israel to North Korea (including Syria, Iran, Pakistan, India, and China) has assembled either nuclear or chemical arsenals and is developing ballistic missiles. A multipolar balance of terror stretches over a 6,000-mile arc, cutting across military and political theaters and regional studies departments into which the West divides up Asia. The “death of distance” is upon us, Bracken warns. Take Japan, which ever since North Korea in 1998 fired a missile across it, landing in the Pacific Ocean, is no longer a zone of sanctuary, but an integral part of mainland Asia military space, despite its archipelagic geography.....

China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and other countries are developing disruptive technologies. In an age of former Third World countries acquiring tactical nuclear weapons, large forward bases like the kind the U.S. military maintained in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait prior to the two Gulf wars may henceforth be vulnerable to enemy attack. Such a development promises to hinder America’s projection of power around the Eurasian rimland, and thus pave the way toward a more unstable, multipolar power arrangement......

Bracken warns that nationalism is “dangerously underrated” by Western observers, who see it as part of a retrograde past that economic and social progress moves us beyond. “The most important issue of the twenty-first century is understanding how nationalism combines with the newly destructive technologies appearing in Asia.” As I’ve said, the new nuclear powers, like Pakistan, India, and China, will have poor and lower-middle-class populations, and this will abet a resentful, hot-blooded nationalism in an age when the new military symbols are not armies but missiles and nuclear weapons—the latest totemic objects of the crowd....


Understanding the map of the twenty-first century means accepting grave contradictions. For while some states become militarily stronger, armed with weapons of mass destruction, others, especially in the Greater Middle East, weaken: they spawn substate armies, tied to specific geographies with all of the cultural and religious tradition which that entails, thus they fight better than state armies on the same territory ever could. Southern Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the former Tamil Tigers of northern Sri Lanka, the Maoist Naxalites in eastern and central India, the various pro-Taliban and other Pushtun tribal groupings in northwestern Pakistan, the Taliban itself in Afghanistan, and the plethora of militias in Iraq, especially during the civil war of 2006–2007, are examples of this trend of terrain-specific substate land forces.

Riaz Haq said...

#China makes worldwide ports' investments as great maritime power. #CPEC #Gwadar #Pakistan https://ig.ft.com/sites/china-ports … … via @F

Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar is perched on the world’s energy jugular. Sea lanes nearby carry most of China’s oil imports; any disruption could choke the world’s second-largest economy.

Owned, financed and built by China, Gwadar occupies a strategic location. Yet Islamabad and Beijing for years denied any military plans for the harbour, insisting it was a purely commercial project to boost trade. Now the mask is slipping.

“As Gwadar becomes more active as a port, Chinese traffic both commercial and naval will grow to this region,” says a senior foreign ministry official in Islamabad. “There are no plans for a permanent Chinese naval base. But the relationship is stretching out to the sea.”

Gwadar is part of a much bigger ambition, driven by President Xi Jinping, for China to become a maritime superpower. An FT investigation reveals how far Beijing has already come in achieving that objective over the past six years.

Investments into a vast network of harbours across the globe have made Chinese port operators the world leaders. Its shipping companies carry more cargo than those of any other nation — five of the top 10 container ports in the world are in mainland China with another in Hong Kong. Its coastguard has the globe’s largest maritime law enforcement fleet, its navy is the world’s fastest growing among major powers and its fishing armada numbers some 200,000 seagoing vessels.

The emergence of China as a maritime superpower is set to challenge a US command of the seas that has underwritten a crucial element of Pax Americana, the relative period of peace enjoyed in the west since the second world war. As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take power, strategic tensions between China and the US are already evident in the South China Sea, where Beijing has pledged to enforce its claim to disputed islands and atolls. Rex Tillerson, the Trump nominee for US secretary of state, said on Wednesday that Washington should block Beijing’s access to the islands. Relations were also dented over Mr Trump’s warm overtures toward Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province.

China understands maritime influence in the same way as Alfred Thayer Mahan, the 19th century American strategist. “Control of the sea,” Mr Mahan wrote, “by maritime commerce and naval supremacy, means predominant influence in the world; because, however great the wealth of the land, nothing facilitates the necessary exchanges as does the sea.”

Drummed into military service

The Gwadar template, where Beijing used its commercial know-how and financial muscle to secure ownership over a strategic trading base, only to enlist it later into military service, has been replicated in other key locations.

In Sri Lanka, Greece and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, Chinese investment in civilian ports has been followed by deployments or visits of People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels and in some cases announcements of longer term military contingencies.

“There is an inherent duality in the facilities that China is establishing in foreign ports, which are ostensibly commercial but quickly upgradeable to carry out essential military missions,” says Abhijit Singh, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “They are great for the soft projection of hard power.”

Data compiled or commissioned by the Financial Times from third-party sources show the extent of China’s dominance in most maritime domains.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan Is Drifting Away From Japan
Ties thrived in the early post-war period, but lately Japan-Pakistan relations have stalled out.

http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/pakistan-is-drifting-away-from-japan/

Pakistan’s relations with Japan have drifted away in the past decade. In the past six years, there have been no high-level visits between the two countries. The last such exchange came in February 2011, when President Asif Ali Zardari paid a visit to Tokyo. Before that, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro visited Islamabad in April 2005.

For reasons unknown, the incumbent government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has not tried to revive diplomatic momentum with Japan. In general, the government has not shown interest in its own ”Vision East Asia” policy, supposed to target outreach toward East Asian countries.

On the contrary, Indian Prime Minister Narendera Modi has deepened India’s ties with a number of East Asian countries, from Mongolia to Fiji. Pakistan’s foreign policy, however, remained inactive with East Asia, even though an active ”Go East” policy is the need of the hour in line with India’s ”Act East” policy. Pakistan’s foreign policy community has not broadened their focus beyond the country’s fundamental issues with India, Afghanistan, and the United States.

In the region of Southeast Asia, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has made only one visit, to Thailand in 2013. Other than China, East Asian countries are not on the diplomatic radar of the Sharif government, which is seemingly unaware that Japan, ASEAN, and South Korea are all important diplomatic and economic points for carving out a strong foreign policy in the region.

In the long run, Pakistan might pay a heavy price for neglecting East Asia. The Asia-Pacific is a highly crucial region in today’s international politics. Pakistani diplomats are not fully equipped to respond to increasing challenges in the South China Sea and the Asia-Pacific in general, even though the region is of vital importance to China, a close friend of Pakistan.

Japan used to be an important pillar of Pakistani diplomacy and economics. There was cordial diplomacy between Pakistan and Japan, starting right after Pakistan’s independence. Japan was a source of aspiration as Pakistan constructed it industry and economy in the 1950s and 1960s. Meanwhile, it was Pakistan that pleaded the case for postwar Japan, including early restoration of its sovereignty and economy. In one sense, Japanese post-war diplomacy in Asia began with Pakistan when they exchanged high-level visits in 1957.

Despite this rich history, at present, Japan’s economic activities in Pakistan are quite limited. Unlike China, Japan is not offering or participating in any national mega projects in Pakistan. Maybe for Japan, the situation is “not ripe” for business and investment in Pakistan “at the moment” — at least, these have been Japanese traditional pretexts for not doing business and investing in Pakistan.

It is true that Pakistan’s domestic situation, including apathy from government departments and terrorism, forced Japan to stay at bay for a long time. However, the situation has much improved now, including drastic changes in Pakistan’s economic fundamentals.

Today, the main issue might be the way China is welcomed in Pakistan, given Japan’s own tensions with its East Asian neighbor. Japan has historical differences with China and Pakistan has historically friendly ties with China. In the maritime dispute between China and Japan, Pakistan leans toward China; Japanese diplomats often grumble about this in private.

For Japan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a source of irritation; Japanese analysts argue that Chinese mega projects will not produce tangible results for Pakistan. There has been no official response from Japan on CPEC as of yet; the Japanese government is reluctant to give its opinion because of the growing enmity with China. CPEC offers huge investment and collaborative opportunities, but Japanese companies are disinclined to join in.

Riaz Haq said...

Stratfor recommends #America use divide-and-conquer strategy in the #MidEast #Iran #SaudiArabia #Sunni #Shia #ISIS https://geopoliticalfutures.com/us-strategies-in-the-middle-east/ …

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/us-strategies-in-the-middle-east/


From the beginning of American history, the U.S. has used the divisions in the world to achieve its ends. The American Revolution prevailed by using the ongoing tension between Britain and France to convince the French to intervene. In World War II, facing Nazi Germany and the Stalinist Soviet Union, the United States won the war by supplying the Soviets with the wherewithal to bleed the German army dry, opening the door to American invasion and, with Britain, the occupation of Europe.
Unless you have decisive and overwhelming power, your only options are to decline combat, vastly increase your military force at staggering cost and time, or use divergent interests to recruit a coalition that shares your strategic goal. Morally, the third option is always a painful strategy. The United States asking monarchists for help in isolating the British at Yorktown was in a way a deal with the devil. The United States allying with a murderous and oppressive Soviet Union to defeat another murderous and oppressive regime was also a deal with the devil. George Washington and Franklin D. Roosevelt both gladly made these deals, each knowing a truth about strategy: What comes after the war comes after the war. For now, the goal is to reach the end of the war victorious.

In the case of the Middle East, I would argue that the United States lacks the forces or even a conceivable strategy to crush either the Sunni rising or Iran. Iran is a country of about 80 million defended to the west by rugged mountains and to the east by harsh deserts. This is the point where someone inevitably will say that the U.S. should use air power. This is the point where I will say that whenever Americans want to win a war without paying the price, they fantasize about air power because it is low-cost and irresistible. Air power is an adjunct to war on the ground. It has never proven to be an effective alternative.
The idea that the United States will simultaneously wage wars in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan and emerge victorious is fantasy. What is not fantasy is the fact that the Islamic world, both strategically and tactically, is profoundly divided. The United States must decide who is the enemy. “Everybody” is an emotionally satisfying answer to some, but it will lead to defeat. The United States cannot fight everyone from the Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush. It can indefinitely carry out raids and other operations, but it can’t win.
To craft an effective strategy, the United States must go back to the strategic foundations of the republic: a willingness to ally with one enemy to defeat another. The goal should be to ally with the weaker enemy, or the enemy with other interests, so that one war does not immediately lead to another. At this moment, the Sunnis are weaker than the Iranians. But there are far more Sunnis, they cover a vast swath of ground and they are far more energized than Iran. Currently, Iran is more powerful, but I would argue the Sunnis are more dangerous. Therefore, I am suggesting an alignment with the Iranians, not because they are any more likable (and neither were Stalin or Louis XVI), but because they are the convenient option.
The Iranians hate and fear the Sunnis. Any opportunity to crush the Sunnis will appeal. The Iranians are also as cynical as George Washington was. But in point of fact, an alliance with the Sunnis against the Shiites could also work. The Sunnis despise the Iranians, and given the hope of crushing them, the Sunnis could be induced to abandon terrorism. There are arguments to be made on either side, as there is in Afghanistan.

Riaz Haq said...

It seems that only small European or island nations like Britain, Spain and Portugal focussed on building navies for "exploration" and "trade" that later led to colonization of America, Asia and Europe.

Henry Kissinger in his book "On China" explains why China failed to rule the world in spite of having a long coast and a large fleet in 1400s.

Kissinger traces this failure to the decision under a Ming ruler to disband its massive Navy in 1433 that was built by a Muslim Chinese Admiral Zeng He.

Here's an excerpt of "On China" by Henry Kissinger:

"Zeng He was a singular figure in the age of exploration: a Chinese Muslim eunuch conscripted into imperial service as a child, he fits no obvious historical precedent. At each stop on his journey, he formally proclaimed the magnificence of China's new Emperor, bestowed lavish gifts on the rulers he encountered, and invited them to travel in person or send envoys to China. There, they were to acknowledge their place in the Sinocentric world order by performing the ritual "kpwtow" to acknowledge the the Emperor's superiority. Yet beyond China's greatness and issuing invitations to portentous ritual, Zeng He displayed no territorial ambition. .....Zeng He's expeditions abruptly stopped in 1433, coincident with the recurrence of threats along China's northern frontier. The next Emperor ordered the fleet dismantled and the records of Zeng He's voyages destroyed.

The expeditions were never repeated. Though Chinese traders continued to ply the routes Zeng He sailed, China's naval abilities faded---so much so that the Ming rulers' response to subsequent menace of piracy off China's southeast was to attempt forced migration of the coastal population ten miles inland."


https://books.google.com/books?id=4pFfYliTIMkC&pg=PT19&dq=chinese+admiral+zheng+he+kissinger+on+china&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj0pP3W6KbSAhUFMGMKHYj4CjAQ6wEIGzAA#v=onepage&q=chinese%20admiral%20zheng%20he%20kissinger%20on%20china&f=true

Riaz Haq said...

President #Trump: Replace The US $ With #Gold As The Global Currency To Make #America Great Again via @forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2017/02/25/president-trump-replace-the-dollar-with-gold-as-the-global-currency-to-make-america-great-again/#5936ed0a4d54

Inside President Trump’s otherwise “standard Trump stump speech” at CPAC was nestled what might be a most intriguing observation:

Global cooperation, dealing with other countries, getting along with other countries is good, it’s very important. But there is no such thing as a global anthem, a global currency or a global flag. This is the United States of America that I’m representing.

There's a keen insight in there that could, just maybe, transform our lives, America, and the world. No "global currency?" Was this, with the poetic observation that “there is no such thing as a global anthem…or a global flag,” just a trope? Or could it contain a political portent with potential high impact on world financial markets? Let’s drill down.

As it happens, there is a global currency.

It’s called the "U.S. dollar.”

Most international trade is priced in dollars. The Bretton Woods international monetary system invested the dollar, which then was defined as and (internationally) was legally convertible to gold at $35/oz, with global currency status. France’s then-finance minister, later its president, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, called the “reserve currency” status of the dollar -- its status, along with gold, as global currency -- an “exorbitant privilege.”

By this d'Estaing was alluding to the fact, as summarized at Wikipedia, that "As American economist Barry Eichengreen summarized: 'It costs only a few cents for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to produce a $100 bill, but other countries had to pony up $100 of actual goods in order to obtain one.'" That privilege, which made great sense during the period immediately after World War II, became a curse.

In 1971 President Nixon, under the influence of his Svengali-like Treasury Secretary John Connally, "suspend[ed] temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold." That closure proved durable instead of temporary. The dollar became, and remains, the world's global currency.

What had been an “exorbitant privilege” devolved into an exorbitant liability. As my former professional colleague John D. Mueller, of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, formerly Rep. Jack Kemp's chief economist, writing in the Wall Street Journal in Trump's Real Trade Problem Is Money recently and astutely observed:

a monetary system based on a reserve currency is unsustainable, since foreign official dollar reserves (for example) are acquired and must be repaid in goods. In other words, the increase in official dollar reserves equals the net exports of the rest of the world, which means it must also equal U.S. international payments deficits—an unsustainable situation.

In other words, if President Trump wishes to address America’s merchandise trade deficit (balanced to perfection, of course, by a capital accounts surplus) he will find that allowing the dollar to be used as the global currency is the real snake in the economic woodpile. The dollar’s burden as the international reserve currency, not currency manipulation by our trading partners or bad treaties, is the true villain in the ongoing melodrama of crummy job creation.

Riaz Haq said...

#India must join #China #Pakistan One Belt, One Road #CPEC initiative to stay in the game via @htTweets

http://www.hindustantimes.com/columns/india-must-involve-itself-in-the-china-pakistan-one-belt-one-road-initiative-to-stay-in-the-game/story-uTtxhRzcn8iCnUHsB91haJ.html

The recently held strategic dialogue between India and China provides a useful reality check on the state of the play. Over the past year, the relationship had reached an impasse owing to China’s unwillingness to support India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group and to allow Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed to be placed on the United Nations Security Council’s terror list.

In both cases India had insisted that these were litmus tests of its ties with China. New Delhi’s stance stemmed from an under-estimation of the growing importance of Pakistan to China and from an over-estimation of its own clout. If the former underscored the inability of the government to get the measure of China-Pakistan convergence, the latter flowed from the curious belief that international influence was mostly about talking ourselves up.

-------------

The prospect of a trade war sparked off by Trump’s imposition of tariffs is surely a major cause for concern to the Chinese leadership. But they also know that United States does not hold all the chips. For one thing, China can retaliate against American exports on a range of things from aircraft to soya bean. More importantly, American tariffs will undercut global value chains and the accompanying deep integration of regulatory systems — commercial laws, taxation, intellectual property rights — fostered assiduously by the US in the past.

While this will hurt China in the short run, it also provided Beijing an opening to reorient economic integration in Asia under its leadership and on more congenial terms.

The collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the rolling out of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative have already provided Beijing the perfect setting in which to pursue a more ambitious agenda of Asian connectivity and integration. Chinese economists have also mooted ideas to channel a greater portion of Asian savings into investments in Asia — instead of persisting with the current pattern of effectively sending those savings to the US and allowing American banks and financial institutions to reinvest them in Asia. All this will take time and enormous effort, but the Chinese are well poised.

Politically, too, Beijing will stand to gain from Trump’s attitude towards longstanding partners in Asia. If an ally like Australia — which stood by the US even during the Vietnam War — came in for rough treatment, what are the odds that others are going to have smooth relationship with the Trump administration? To be sure, many of these countries will continue to be concerned about China but the emergence of countervailing coalitions may become difficult.

Unlike Beijing, New Delhi does not have many cards to play. Despite repeated expressions of interest, India’s record in fostering economic integration even in the subcontinent is underwhelming. Further, New Delhi has firmly refused to sign up to the Chinese OBOR initiative. The two sides did, however, discuss the possibility of cooperating on developmental activities in Afghanistan. Again, while this is welcome, New Delhi should recognise that Beijing does not really need to work with it in Afghanistan.

Riaz Haq said...

#China’s Economic Deals May Buy It Influence in #Pakistan That Eluded US #America. #CPEC

http://news.antiwar.com/2017/03/06/chinas-economic-deals-may-buy-it-pakistani-influence-us-long-sought/

US Military Aid on the Decline, Ties Seen Waning
by Jason Ditz, March 06, 2017
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Large-scale military aid has been seen by a number of US Administrations as the sure-fire, one-size-fits-all solution for buying allies, and seeing value in cozying up to Pakistan during the occupation of Afghanistan, the US started throwing billions upon billions at Pakistan’s military.

It bought limited support, as US drone strikes and other regional policies were fueling anti-US sentiment at least as fast as the government to sign checks to try to keep the government placated. In recent years, the US is backing away from even trying.

China, however, sees Pakistan as a potentially valuable economic partner, and in the course of setting up massive economic deals is also offering substantial support for Pakistan’s infrastructure. Unlike the US military aid, which was always seen as cynical attempts to buy politicians, China’s aid seems to be embraced more broadly, with hopes that Pakistan’s struggling economy can get a rub from China’s massive growth.

In a nation with a long history of military coups, the US may have miscalculated in thinking they could buy Pakistan’s support with military aid, and China may go farther with efforts aimed primarily at helping state-run Chinese companies operating in Pakistan than that aid ever did.

Riaz Haq said...

TRUMP PREPARES TO PASS THE WORLD LEADERSHIP BATON TO CHINA
Posted by Fareed Zakaria on March 17, 2017 ·

https://fareedzakaria.com/2017/03/17/trump-prepares-to-pass-the-world-leadership-baton-to-china/


We do not yet have the official agenda for next month’s meeting in Florida between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. But after 75 years of U.S. leadership on the world stage, the Mar-a-Lago summit might mark the beginning of a handover of power from the United States to China. Trump has embraced a policy of retreat from the world, opening a space that will be eagerly filled by the Communist Party of China.
Trump railed against China on the campaign trail, bellowing that it was “raping” the United States. He vowed to label it a currency manipulator on his first day in office. But in his first interaction with Beijing, he caved. Weeks after his election, Trump speculated that he might upgrade relations with Taiwan. In response, Xi froze all contacts between Beijing and Washington on all issues, demanding that Trump reverse himself — which is exactly what happened. (Perhaps just coincidentally, a few weeks later, the Chinese government granted the Trump Organization dozens of trademark rights in China, with a speed and on a scale that surprised many experts.)
The Trump administration’s vision for disengagement from the world is a godsend for China. Look at Trump’s proposed budget, which would cut spending on “soft power” — diplomacy, foreign aid, international organizations — by 28 percent. Beijing, by contrast, has quadrupled the budget of its foreign ministry in the past decade. And that doesn’t include its massive spending on aid and development across Asia and Africa. Just tallying some of Beijing’s key development commitments, George Washington University’s David Shambaugh estimates the total at $1.4 trillion, compared with the Marshall Plan, which in today’s dollars would cost about $100 billion.
China’s growing diplomatic strength matters. An Asian head of government recently told me that at every regional conference, “Washington sends a couple of diplomats, whereas Beijing sends dozens. The Chinese are there at every committee meeting, and you are not.” The result, he said, is that Beijing is increasingly setting the Asian agenda.
The Trump administration wants to skimp on U.S. funding for the United Nations. This is music to Chinese ears. Beijing has been trying to gain influence in the global body for years. It has increased its funding for the U.N. across the board and would likely be delighted to pick up the slack as the United States withdraws. As Foreign Policy magazine’s Colum Lynch observes, China has already become the second-largest funder of U.N. peacekeeping and has more peacekeepers than the other four permanent Security Council members combined. Of course, in return for this, China will gain increased influence, from key appointments to shifts in policy throughout the U.N. system.
The first major act of the Trump administration was to pull the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a treaty that would have opened up long-closed economies such as Japan and Vietnam, but also would have created a bloc that could stand up to China’s increasing domination of trade in Asia. The TPP was, in Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s words, “a litmus test” of U.S. credibility in Asia. With Washington’s withdrawal, even staunchly pro-American allies such as Australia are hedging their bets. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has raised the possibility of China joining the TPP, essentially turning a group that was meant to be a deterrent against China into one more arm of Chinese influence.

Riaz Haq said...

#China to spend $300 billion to boost #hightech industries for self-sufficiency. Western tech firms worried.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/business/china-trade-manufacturing-miao-wei.html?_r=0

Made in China 2025, is designed to juice economic development in emerging industries by providing $300 billion in low-cost loans, research funds and other government aid.

But big companies in the rest of the world worry that the program gives an unfair advantage to homegrown players, with the stated goal of Chinese companies’ owning as much as 80 percent of specific domestic markets in eight years.

China’s minister of industry and information technology, Miao Wei, said the new policy was not meant to wall off the country’s companies from outside competition. Yet he also conceded, without offering specifics, that the plan might need changes.

“We never thought about closing ourselves and doing it only at home, but I think we need some adjustments,” he said on the second day of the China Development Forum, a three-day gathering of senior Chinese economic policy makers with corporate leaders and top economists from around the world.

And while China may want more local suppliers in some sectors, Mr. Miao said, in most industries “we still open up and welcome foreign companies to China.”

The Chinese program plays into the increasing sensitivities over global trade.

While President Xi Jinping of China has trumpeted the merits of globalization, his country has also been criticized for protectionist policies that favor Chinese companies. Adding to the frictions, President Trump has espoused an America First strategy, specifically calling out China on trade and currency.

Western companies fear that the Made in China policy could be used to justify government demands to hand over their latest technology as the price of staying in the Chinese market. They also worry that government-backed investment funds and other resources could be used to acquire many Western companies with key technologies while subsidizing their Chinese rivals.

One of the most contentious parts of the plan is how the country wants to meet Chinese demand with Chinese products. The two main approaches — requiring that a large part of a product’s value be created in China or setting a specific market share for domestic players — are strictly prohibited by the World Trade Organization.


Riaz Haq said...

India shouldn’t drag China into dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir: Expert

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/india-shouldn-t-drag-china-into-dispute-with-pakistan-over-kashmir-expert/story-r03UI9SKyLs4nBIwfbjXEL.html

China needs to have access to ports such as Gwadar in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to move its huge shipments of cargo to other parts of the world, said Wang Zhan, a deputy to the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s Parliament, and president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

“I know India has lot of disagreements with the CPEC to Gwadar port. But if you are Chinese, considering (the situation in) Malacca Strait and the South China Sea, you would be looking for alternative passageways. We have so much cargo, we surely need the ports. We have to pass by the Indian Ocean to reach Europe,” he said.

Speaking exclusively to Hindustan Times on the sidelines of the just-concluded NPC session, Wang said: “I know India and Pakistan have a dispute over (Kashmir.) If we go through the Kashmir area, which belongs to India, its a problem of sovereignty (for India) but now Pakistan has the right of administration (over PoK). So, it’s a problem between India and Pakistan and doesn’t relate to China.”

Wang, who is also managing director of the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, said China wasn’t the first country to bring up the Silk Road plan to connect regions and continents.

“Japan brought up the Silk Road in 1990s, an American Harvard professor brought it up in 2005, and Hillary Clinton brought it up in 2011. They all brought up the Silk Road concept earlier than China,” he said, adding some proposals were north to south and China’s east to west.

“If all the projects in these plans could be realised, the countries touched in the plans would definitely develop, and the economic development would decrease the element of war and chaos,” he added.

Wang said China’s increasing investments in infrastructure, such as ports, in South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka is purely for economic reasons.

“For sure it’s for economic reasons. You can know the answer by the map. India is a peninsula, the trade between Europe and China have to pass by the sea near India and Sri Lanka. It’s decided by geography. We can’t go by Antarctica. If you think from China’s view, you will do the same,” he said.

Referring to China’s objections to India drilling for oil in the South China Sea, Wang blamed Vietnam for the confusion.

“In the 1970s, the Vietnamese had completely agreed that South China Sea belongs to China. Later, they occupied 29 islands and built infrastructure. India drilled for oil in the same area, so we protested. The South China Sea is China’s lifeline. It’s not necessary for India to get involved in the South China Sea disputes,” Wang said.

Riaz Haq said...

#China’s new world order. #US #India #Pakistan #CPEC #OBOR

by Zahid Hussain

https://www.dawn.com/news/1333603

CHINA recently hosted 29 heads of state and government at the Belt and Road Forum, reinforcing the country’s claim to leadership of an emerging geopolitical and economic world order. The summit conference that also attracted representatives of more than 40 other countries and multilateral financial agencies was the clearest expression yet of China breaking out of its old foreign policy mould that had restrained it from attempting a global role.

China’s multibillion-dollar One Belt, One Road (OBOR) infrastructure development project linking the old Silk Road with Europe, is a manifestation of China’s growing geopolitical ambitions. A brainchild of President Xi Jinping, perhaps, the most powerful Chinese leader after Mao Zedong, OBOR has now been under development for four years, spanning 68 countries and accounting for up to 40 per cent of global GDP.

President Xi’s ambition of propelling China to centre stage of the global power game represents a sharp departure from the approach of previous Chinese leaders who strictly adhered to Deng Xiaoping’s tenet to “hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead”. Thus over the past two decades, China has avoided being drawn into global conflicts and has completely focused its energies on development that helped it to become an economic superpower.

China’s push to take the world leadership has come at a time when a strong anti-globalisation wave is sweeping the Western world that is showing a growing tendency of returning to more protectionist regimes. The United States under the Trump administration with its inward-looking approach has virtually abandoned the mantle of globalisation thus ceding greater space to Beijing’s assertion.

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Although Beijing downplays geostrategic motivations, CPEC represents an international extension of China’s effort to deliver security through economic development. Notwithstanding their growing strategic cooperation, terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan have remained a major source of worry for the Chinese government. China’s security concerns, especially those that arise from its restive region of Xinjiang, and the Islamist militancy threatening Pakistan’s stability have also been a strong factor in Beijing’s new approach to achieving security through economic development.

This growing Pakistan-China strategic alliance has also exposed the regional geopolitical fault lines. Predictably, India boycotted the Beijing forum citing serious reservations about the project, particularly regarding China-funded development in Gilgit-Baltistan that is linked to the Kashmir dispute. Yet another excuse given by the Indian authorities was that a trans-regional project of this magnitude required wider consultation.

Explore: Is India trying to convince the world China’s OBOR plan is secretly colonial?

Despite their geopolitical rivalry and long-standing border dispute, trade between India and China has grown significantly crossing $100bn. But there have been some visible signs of tension between the two most populous nations in the past few years with the strengthening of ties between Washington and New Delhi. India has openly sided with the US and Japan against China over the South China Sea issue.

Indeed, the success of the summit has provoked a strong reaction from Delhi. So much so that some leading commentators have called for tougher action to obstruct the OBOR project. “Far from this, CPEC (the life and soul of OBOR) threatens India’s territorial integrity in a manner unseen since 1962,” Samir Saran, a leading Indian commentator wrote in an op-ed piece.

Notwithstanding the scepticism, OBOR is a new geo-economic reality representing an emerging world order. The process cannot be reversed.

Riaz Haq said...

U.S. #Pentagon says #China likely to build more mil overseas bases, maybe in #Pakistan after #Djibouti http://reut.rs/2rSapDG via @Reuters

A Pentagon report released on Tuesday singled out Pakistan as a possible location for a future Chinese military base, as it forecast that Beijing would likely build more bases overseas after establishing a facility in the African nation of Djibouti.

The prediction came in a 97-page annual report to Congress that saw advances throughout the Chinese military in 2016, funded by robust defense spending that the Pentagon estimated exceeded $180 billion.

That is higher than China's official defense budget figure of 954.35 billion yuan ($140.4 billion). Chinese leaders, the U.S. report said, appeared committed to defense spending hikes for the "foreseeable future," even as economic growth slows.

The report repeatedly cited China's construction of its first overseas naval base in Djibouti, which is already home to a key U.S. military base and is strategically located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea on the route to the Suez Canal.

"China most likely will seek to establish additional military bases in countries with which it has a longstanding friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan," the report said.

Djibouti's position on the northwestern edge of the Indian Ocean has fueled worries in India that it would become another of China's 'string of pearls' of military alliances and assets ringing India, including Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

The report did not address India's potential reaction to a Chinese base in Pakistan.

But Pakistan, the U.S. report noted, was already the primary market in the Asian-Pacific region for Chinese arms exports. That region accounted for $9 billion of the more than $20 billion in Chinese arms exports from 2011 to 2015.

Last year, China signed an agreement with Pakistan for the sale of eight submarines.

QUANTUM SATELLITE, CYBER HACKS

The Pentagon report flagged Chinese military advances, including in space and at sea.

It cited China's 2016 launch of the first experimental quantum communications satellite, acknowledging that it represented a "notable advance in cryptography research."

As in past years, the Pentagon renewed its concerns about cyber spying, saying U.S. government-owned computers were again targeted by China-based intrusions through 2016.

"These and past intrusions focused on accessing networks and extracting information," the report said.

"China uses its cyber capabilities to support intelligence collection against U.S. diplomatic, economic, and defense industrial base sectors."

In a section discussing China's Navy, the report predicted that China's first domestically designed and produced aircraft carrier would likely reach initial operating capability in 2020.

Riaz Haq said...

#India & #Pakistan in 8-member #SCO a boon for regional stability, development. #China #Russia #SCOsummit @XHNews http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/08/c_136349784.htm …

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will witness its first-ever expansion at the upcoming Kazakhstan summit.
The inclusion of India and Pakistan, both major countries in the region, demonstrates the organization's growing appeal.
Once New Delhi and Islamabad officially in, the eight-member bloc will then cover nearly half of the world's population and three-fifths of the Eurasian continent. Its role in promoting regional stability and prosperity would thus be greatly boosted.
Since its founding in 2001, the SCO has encountered numerous naysayers and critics who have questioned its motives, principles and development.
Yet the organization's steadfast commitments to peace and growth in some of the world's most volatile nations have remained unshaken over the years.
That's because the SCO countries have shared great needs to maintain peace and security in the region, and even greater needs to foster faster economic development. These common interests outweigh their differences in political systems, cultures, social textures and levels of economic development.
After India and Pakistan are admitted to the SCO, they will enjoy broader anti-terrorism intelligence sharing with other partners within the bloc.
A mature multilateral mechanism such as the SCO will also help the two countries strengthen their trust-building process and enable them to work together to combat their common enemy -- terrorism.
Moreover, the SCO could also serve as a platform to better promote their shared economic and trade development, especially cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.
"The SCO has never been just a security group from the beginning. The Belt and Road Initiative offers a timely and convenient framework for the SCO members to facilitate connectivity and ultimately, achieve free flows of goods, capital, service and technology," said Sheng Shiliang, a researcher at the Xinhua Center for World Affairs Studies.
Sun Zhuangzhi, secretary-general of the SCO Research Center affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said "comprehensive cooperation at all levels as part of the regional integration process is unstoppable. India cannot keep itself from this general trend for too long, it will come and join in like this time, sooner or later."
The impressive performance of the SCO in the past 16 years deserves greater global confidence in its ability to dispel doubts and divergences.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping and other heads of state gather in Astana for the SCO summit on Thursday and Friday, the world can expect that the organization, by absorbing two major regional countries, can help promote regional unity in the quest for a more secure and prosperous future.

Riaz Haq said...

The Thucydides trap

https://www.dawn.com/news/1272772


THE ancient Greek historian Thucydides theorised that when an established power encountered a rising power, a conflict between them was inevitable. Today, the US, the current global hegemon, and China, the rising power, appear to be hurtling towards the Thucydides trap.

As the former Chinese foreign policy czar, Dai Bingguo, recalled at a US-China conference, in a little over 40 years China-US relations have “produced tremendous and extraordinary outcomes”: in bilateral trade and investment, restraining threats to peace and security and addressing global problems.

However, the US now clearly perceives China’s rise as a threat to its global pre-eminence. President Obama announced a US ‘pivot’ to Asia three years ago. The pivot is now firmly under way.

Two-thirds of US naval power is being deployed to the Pacific. The US is building a ring of alliances with countries around China’s periphery: from South Korea to Afghanistan. It has interposed itself in China’s maritime disputes; accused China of unfair trade, cyber attacks and espionage and human rights violations; excluded China from the US-sponsored Transpacific Trade Partnership and boycotted the China-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

-------------------


In response to growing Indo-US military cooperation, China could ‘activate’ the northern disputed border, extend its naval operations into the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, further enhance its strategic partnership with Pakistan and intensify efforts to build greater influence in Afghanistan and other South Asian states.

The escalating Sino-US rivalry will compel Pakistan to align itself even more closely with China. Consequently, Pakistan will face even greater US pressure and coercion, including on Afghanistan, terrorism, nuclear and missile issues.

The impact of a Sino-US confrontation would be global. Sino-Russian defence cooperation would intensify. The One Belt, One Road project will link China with Europe through Russia, reducing American influence. In the Middle East, China could align with anti-US states. Africa could divide between Western and Chinese blocs. In Latin America, Mexico, Brazil and some other states may be open to closer relations with China to challenge American domination. The Sino-US economic relationship, including cross-border investment and their trillion dollar trade, would decline sharply, slowing growth in both countries and the world economy and possibly igniting another global economic crisis.

Of the 15 historical cases reviewed by Dr Kissinger of established powers encountering rising rivals, 10 resulted in conflict. The US and China could yet back away from the Thucydides trap. The onus for doing so rests with Washington. Unfortunately, the anti-China populism reflected in the current US presidential campaign does not augur well for the triumph of restraint and reason.

Riaz Haq said...

Rising dragon, wounded eagle

https://www.dawn.com/news/1327278

WHEN China’s former vice premier, Qian Qichen, was asked 20 years ago about the future of Sino-US relations, he reportedly responded: “They [Sino-US relations] will never be as good as they should be; and never be as bad as they can be.” This prognosis holds true today for the world’s “most important bilateral relationship”.

The largest and second-largest economies are now deeply intertwined and interdependent through trade, supply chains and finance. But the fortunes of the Chinese dragon have been rising; the power of the American eagle has been dented by long wars and economic profligacy. The Greek historian, Thucydides, postulated that when an established power faces a rising one, a clash is almost inevitable.

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The fortunes of the Chinese dragon have been rising; the power of the American eagle has been dented.
Since then, the Trump administration has walked back, slowly, from its most extreme positions. US Defence Secretary Mattis assured that the South China Sea disputes would have to be resolved through negotiations. In a carefully choreographed call with the Chinese president, Trump affirmed continued US adherence to the One China policy.

The recent Trump-Xi summit in Mar-a-Lago was expected to determine the direction of US-China relations. Although the summit was overshadowed by the US missile strikes against Syria, there was no acrimony, and agreement was reached on a high-level security dialogue and a 100-day plan to address trade.

However, uncertainty persists due to Trump’s unpredictability. He will not declare China a “currency manipulator”. But Trump has now linked the trade talks to China’s help on North Korea.

In his tweets, President Trump has repeatedly urged China to resolve the threat from North Korea “or the US will”. The US deployment of a US carrier group towards the Korean Peninsula has escalated tensions. But the US is unlikely to conduct a pre-emptive or punitive strike against North Korea (à la Syria) given Pyongyang’s capacity for a devastating response. And, the ‘window’ for such a strike is likely to close shortly if, as expected, the left-wing candidate wins the South Korean presidency and rules out the use of force.\

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Such cooperation on infrastructure may open the door to US participation in China’s path-breaking One Belt, One Road initiative which its media has dubbed as ‘Globalisation 2.0’. China has invited US participation in the project. It could be extremely lucrative for US corporations and industry.

A first step in this direction may be active US participation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor endeavour. The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank are already financing some CPEC-related projects in Pakistan. American companies are also involved as equipment suppliers for power plants and financial, technical and legal consultants in various projects.

Ever since it arranged Henry Kissinger’s clandestine trip to China in 1971, Pakistan has had a significant stake in the preservation of positive Sino-US relations. Today, if a great power consensus can be achieved on a strategy for stability in Afghanistan and counterterrorism, Pakistan can become the geographical locus for economic and strategic cooperation between the world’s two primary powers.

Riaz Haq said...

INTERVIEW WITH GRAHAM ALLISON INTERNATIONAL
Trump’s biggest challenge is to avoid war with China, says Graham Allison
Varghese K George

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/interview-with-graham-allison-trumps-biggest-challenge-is-to-avoid-war-with-china/article17893640.ece

‘S. Korea or Japan, not India or Pakistan, could drag America into war with China’

Graham Allison is Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. In his forthcoming book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, he argues that confrontations between the two powers are inevitable. He answered questions from The Hindu by email.

In your view, is it possible for Trump to cut a deal with China on trade and leave China's desired sphere of influence in Asia unchallenged?

I do not want to speculate about any specific details of any potential deals, but I do think that a negotiated long peace between China and the United States is one possible outcome. In my book, I note that there is ample precedent for an agreement between the US and China to take a hiatus that imposes considerable constraints in some areas of their competition. This would leave both parties free to pursue advantage elsewhere. From the Thirty Years’ Peace that Athens signed with the Spartans to the US-Soviet détente in the 1970s, rivals throughout history have found ways to accept intolerable (but temporally unchangeable) circumstances in order to focus on more urgent priorities.

In the current stage of the Chinese-American rivalry, both governments face overwhelming demands at home. Given China’s view that progress advances in decades and centuries rather than days and months, it has historically shown a capacity to set problems aside for long periods, as it did in reaching the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972, which effectively set aside the issue of Taiwan, or in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping proposed to Japan that disputes over islands in the East China Sea be shelved for a generation.

Americans tend to be less patient. Yet the menu of potential agreements is long and fruitful: a pact to freeze disputes in the South and East China Seas, to affirm freedom of navigation for all ships in all international waters, to limit cyber attacks to agreed domains and exclude others (for instance, critical infrastructure), or to forbid specific forms of interference in each other’s domestic politics.

How do you think Asian countries will try to balance the US - China rivalry?

----

Besides Korea, the prime candidate for this is probably not India or Pakistan but Japan, a country with a post–World War II history of pacifism, but whose politics have become increasingly militaristic in recent years. Disputes between Japan and China over islands in the East China Sea thus present special risks. If the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe succeeds in revising Japan’s pacifist constitution and strengthening its military capabilities, including amphibious landings to seize disputed islands, China will do more than take note.

Riaz Haq said...

#Trump ponders crackdown on #Pakistan over alleged #terror ties despite experts' warnings #India #Afghanistan #China

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/27/trump-pakistan-terror-afghanistan-china-russia

As US mulls strategy over country’s support for terrorist groups in Afghanistan, experts say tougher stance could drive Pakistan toward China and Russia

The Trump administration is considering taking a harder stance against Pakistan for supporting terrorist groups in Afghanistan, but experts warn that pressure alone will not bring peace.

Similar tactics have failed in the past, and analysts warn that the US can only influence the south Asian country by coupling force with diplomacy, which Donald Trump seems to shun.

And attempts to strong-arm Islamabad could push it deeper into a growing alliance with China and Russia, and lead to more instability.

China in particular offers Pakistan an opportunity to counter the strengthened union between the US and India, whose presence in Afghanistan the Pakistani military considers an existential threat.

Among the tools considered by the Trump administration, according to Reuters, are expanding drone strikes, withholding aid and revoking Pakistan’s status as a major non-Nato ally.

But attempts to bully Pakistan into submission will only drive Islamabad further toward China, said Ayesha Siddiqa, author and research associate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

“It also means that in Afghanistan, there will be more violence. Pakistan sees Afghanistan as an American-Indian project against Pakistani interests,” she said.

Pakistan is widely believed to harbour and support Taliban militants, and has been regarded as a spoiler in peace talks.

US policy on Afghanistan is evolving at a time when the defence department is particularly powerful in policy-making, after Trump delegated authority to his defence secretary, James Mattis, to set troop deployment levels there.

Meanwhile the state department is weakened by a continuing outflow of veteran diplomats and a notable lack of urgency in replacing them on the part of the secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who has backed plans to cut the departmental budget by a third.

On Friday, the acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP), Laurel Miller, left the post along with her deputy, leaving doubts over the future of the position, which was created in 2009 by Barack Obama. A state department statement said that Tillerson “has not made a decision” on the issue.

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Afghans have lived under a geopolitical tug-of-war since Russia’s and Britain’s 19th century Great Game. Now it seems more countries than ever are willing to expend political and economic capital to maintain a foothold.

“Unless there is an agreement about Afghanistan between Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan, India and the US, Afghanistan will be unstable,” Rubin said. “And if the idea is that Afghanistan is defended and secured by becoming an American base, there won’t be an agreement.”

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan pivots to #China amid fresh concerns over #US ties with #India. #ModiInUS #Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/pakistan-pivots-to-china-amid-fresh-concerns-over-us-ties-with-india/2017/06/29/63e377d2-5cc9-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html?utm_term=.b453ecd1e6f9

Islamabad – The words from Pakistan’s top foreign policy adviser could not have been clearer. At a news conference welcoming China’s foreign minister to the Pakistani capital this week, Sartaj Aziz declared, “Pakistan’s relations with China are the cornerstone of our foreign policy.”

It was a blunt signal of change by a country that has long been a key ally and aid recipient of the United States, from their Cold War alliance against Soviet meddling in Afghanistan to a more recent, uneasy partnership in the fight against Islamist terrorism in the region. Today, Pakistan continues to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. annual support.

But Islamabad’s political pivot from Washington to Beijing, already its dominant investor and increasingly important global interlocutor, is hardly surprising, experts said.

Pakistani officials have been worried for months that the Trump administration will put heavy pressure on their government, possibly by cutting aid or even declaring it a “state sponsor of terrorism” – a giant black mark -- due to complaints by Afghan officials, U.S. military officials and members of Congress that Pakistan continues to harbor anti-Afghan insurgents.

At the same time, Islamabad has been concerned about Washington’s emerging friendship with India, Pakistan’s much larger, nuclear-armed rival and immediate neighbor. This week’s upbeat state visit to Washington by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was received enthusiastically by President Trump, raised new alarm bells here.

On Thursday, Pakistani newspapers featured a photo of Trump and Modi hugging goodbye, along with anxious headlines and a testy statement from the Pakistan foreign ministry that called a joint statement by the two leaders “singularly unhelpful” in achieving stability and peace in South Asia, and said it “aggravates an already tense situation.” The ministry also said that China had endorsed Pakistan’s view.

Pakistan was especially upset that Modi and Trump spoke about the importance of reining in regional terrorism – referring indirectly to Pakistan’s alleged support for anti-Afghan insurgents -- but ignored Pakistan’s denunciations of human rights abuses by Indian forces against protesters in the contested border region of Kashmir, as well as its charges of Indian support for anti-Pakistan militants.

Riaz Haq said...

#US #Navy carrier group leads biggest yet drills with #India, #Japan off #Malabar #China #Pakistan http://reut.rs/2u48FYX via @Reuters

A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group began naval exercises with India and Japan on Monday that the U.S. navy said would help the three countries tackle maritime threats in the Asia-Pacific region.

The annual exercises named Malabar are being held off India. They are the largest since India and the United States launched the exercise in 1992. Japan was later included.

"Malabar 2017 is the latest in a continuing series of exercises that has grown in scope and complexity over the years to address the variety of shared threats to maritime security in the Indo-Asia Pacific," the U.S. Pacific command said.

Military officials say the drills involving the U.S. carrier USS Nimitz, India's lone carrier Vikramaditya and Japan's biggest warship, the helicopter carrier Izumo, are aimed at helping to maintain a balance of power in the Asia-Pacific against the rising weight of China.

The three countries have been concerned about China's claims to almost all of the waters of the South China Sea, and more broadly, its expanding military presence across the region.

Chinese submarines, for example, recently docked in Sri Lanka, an island just off the southern tip of India that it has long seen as squarely in its back yard.

The maritime drills are taking place as India and China are locked in a standoff on their land border in the Himalayas.

The U.S. Pacific command said in a statement the exercises would help the three countries operate together and it was learning how to integrate with the Indian navy.

India and the United States were for decades on opposite sides of a Cold War divide but have in recent years become major defense partners.

China has in the past criticized the exercises as destabilizing to the region.

India this year turned down an Australian request to join the exercises for now, for fear that would antagonize China further.

The Indian navy said the exercises would focus on aircraft carrier operations and ways to hunt submarines.

The navy has spotted more than a dozen Chinese military vessels including submarines in the Indian Ocean over the past two months, media reported days ahead of Malabar.

"Naval co-operation between India, US and Japan epitomizes the strong and resilient relationship between the three democracies," India's defense ministry said in a statement.

The border stand-off on a plateau next to the mountainous Indian state of Sikkim, which borders China, has ratcheted up tension between the neighboring giants, who share a 3,500 km (2,175 miles) frontier, large parts of which are disputed.

Riaz Haq said...

#American #Military trains with #Japan and #India, while #China courts #Pakistan

http://www.newsweek.com/us-military-trains-japan-india-pakistan-china-634364

The U.S. has begun a series of what has been described as the most complex war games with Asian allies India and Japan. All three are engaged in regional power struggles with rival nations.

The maritime drills, known this year as "Malabar 2017," kicked off Monday in India's Chennai and the Bay of Bengal, and mark the first time the three forces have deployed carriers to participate in regional military maneuvers. In addition to focusing on anti-submarine warfare, the U.S., India and Japan will engage in training on land involving "professional and expert exchanges" in various types of warfare and special operations. This is the second year that Japan officially joins the annual exercises, which come amid growing tensions between India and China, the latter of which has also challenged the interests of the U.S. and Japan in the Asia-Pacific and grown closer to India's greatest foe, Pakistan, an estranged U.S. ally. The Navy said the trilateral drills would strengthen naval bonds between the U.S., India and Japan.

"Indian, Japanese and U.S. maritime forces have a common understanding and knowledge of a shared working environment at sea. Each iteration of this exercise helps to advance the level of understanding between our Sailors, and we hope to be able to continue this process over time," the Navy said in a statement.

"As members of Indo-Asia-Pacific nations, our maritime forces are natural partners, and we look forward to continuing to strengthen our bonds and personal relationships."

-------------


In the past week, Pakistan tested an advanced version of its nuclear-capable, surface-to-surface Nasr missile and China held live-fire drills near the area where it accuses India of committing a historic breach of sovereignty. Pakistan, once a staunch ally of the U.S., has found itself drifting closer to China, which provides it with arms and has agreed to make it a key part of Beijing's ongoing efforts to revitalize historic trade routes across Asia, the Middle East and Europe, known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan's $100B deal with China: What does it amount to?
By Nadia Naviwala

https://www.devex.com/news/pakistan-s-100b-deal-with-china-what-does-it-amount-to-90872

Early last year, the Pakistani government sent USAID officials in Islamabad a mystifying letter via snail mail: please stop doing feasibility studies for Diamer Basha Dam

------------
When USAID got the letter in 2016, they suspected that Pakistan had found funding with the Chinese. They were right.

----------------

In May 2017 Pakistan and China signed a $50 billion agreement that included full funding for Diamer Basha and four other dams.

Although enormous, the new agreement hardly merited coverage in Pakistan. China already captured headlines and public imagination in 2013 when the two countries signed memorandums of understanding worth $46 billion to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. CPEC has since quietly grown to a $62 billion investment.

The latest $50 billion in memorandums now brings Chinese loans and investments in Pakistan to well over $100 billion. A senior member of the CPEC team at Pakistan’s Ministry for Planning, Development, and Reform predicts that figure will ultimately grow to $150 billion. If the dams face cost overruns — which are 96 percent on average — then that will be a conservative estimate.

-----------

roads and rail are actually a small part of Chinese money in Pakistan — less than $11 billion of the original $46 billion agreement. It’s small because, contrary to popular perceptions, much of the CPEC route is actually financed by Pakistan.

“Much of the roads being built are being built by our money,” says Miftah Ismail, who was Pakistan’s minister for investment until late last month, when the cabinet was dissolved because the Supreme Court voted to remove the prime minister on grounds of corruption.

What Ismail estimates Pakistan will take on in Chinese projects this year — $4 billion in loans and investments — equals what the Pakistani federal and provincial governments have allocated for roads and highways in their own annual budgets.

China is also financing the expansion and improvement of Pakistan’s neglected railway system, doubling its speed from 60 to 120 kilometers per hour.

CPEC roads will connect landlocked Xinjiang province in western China through a new port city that it is building on Pakistan’s coast, Gwadar. China needs these roads to transport goods out, but it is hard to think of what will go in the other direction. China’s exports to Pakistan account for two-thirds of Pakistan’s trade deficit.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Army Aviation Receives 4 Mi-35M Advanced Attack #Helicopters From #Russia. @Diplomat_APAC

http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/pakistan-receives-4-advanced-attack-helicopters-from-russia/

The Pakistan Army Aviation Corps (PAAC) took delivery of four Russian-made Mi-35M attack helicopters, Pakistan’s Defense Export Promotion Organization (DEPO) confirmed in a statement issued at this year’s International Military-Technical Forum (Army 2017), which took place August 22-27 in Moscow, according to local media reports.

“The contract was signed, we received all four cars [Mi-35Ms] and now we get new equipment,” DEPOs Brigadier General Waheed Mumtaz told reporters in Moscow. PAAC are now getting acquainted with the new equipment. Based on the gunships’ performance a follow-up order for additional helicopters is under consideration, Mumtaz said. The general also noted that other Pakistani orders of Russian military equipment might take place depending on the Pakistani military’s experience with the helicopters.

Russia officially lifted an arms embargo against Pakistan, in place since the Soviet-Afghan War, in June 2014.

Pakistan and Russia agreed to the $153 million helicopter deal during then-Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Raheel Sharif’s visit to Russia in June 2016. A preliminary contract was concluded at the Pakistan Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi in August 2015. Pakistan military sources indicate that PAAC could purchase a total of 20 Mi-35 helicopters in the coming years. “Given the cost of building the necessary Mi-35M logistics and maintenance infrastructure, expanding the fleet beyond four aircraft would financially be a sound decision for the Pakistani military,” I explained in December 2016. The Mi-25M is a formidable weapons platform, as I noted elsewhere (See: “Confirmed: Pakistan Is Buying New Attack Helicopters From Russia”):

The Mi-35M attack helicopter, the export version of the Mi-24 gunship, was developed by the Mil Moscow Helicopter Plant and has been produced in Russia since 2005. Next to serving in the Russian military, the aircraft has been exported to Azerbaijan, Brazil, Iraq, and Venezuela.

The company website of Russian Helicopters notes that the Mi-35 is particularly suited for mountainous terrain and can be deployed “round the clock” in adverse weather conditions. The website notes that the helicopter offers “combat use of guided and unguided weapons in regular and challenging climate conditions” and is “operational for attack flights at altitudes of 10-25 m daytime and 50 m at night over land or water.”

The helicopter can be deployed for a host of different missions, including transporting up to eight paratroopers and carrying military supplies weighing up to 1,500 kg internally and 2,400 kg externally.

It is unknown in what configuration the helicopters were delivered. The gunship is fitted with a mounted twin-barrel GSh-23V 23 millimeter cannon, and can also carry 80 and 120 millimeter rockets, as well as anti-tank guided missiles. The Pakistan Army is specifically looking to enhance its close-air support capability for counter-insurgency operations as well as anti-tank warfare.

Riaz Haq said...

Why India-Japan’s Knock-Off Of Pakistan-China’s CPEC Is Doomed To Fail

https://www.valuewalk.com/2017/08/india-japan-pakistan-china-cpec-fail/

India-Japan joint efforts to copy the idea of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) can be derailed due to economic impotence.

As India and Japan join hands to develop their own vision of a connectivity initiative – the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), dubbed as ‘India’s New Silk Road’ – New Delhi and Tokyo look over their shoulder to copy rivals Pakistan and China’s ambitious CPEC.

The announcement of AAGC was made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May and came amid the active phase of CPEC implementation. While India and Japan insist their knock-off of CPEC is designed to integrate the economies of South, Southeast, and East Asia with Oceania and Africa, experts says the intentions behind the AAGC are to counter China and serve as a counterbalance to its ambitious joint project with Pakistan.

India-Japan Making Their Own, Cheaper Version of CPEC

The development of AAGC comes amid a series of seemingly anti-China deals by Japan and India, the most prominent enemies of Beijing looking to counter its growing expansionism in the region. In late July, The Economic Times reported that India-Japan would sign a landmark maritime security pact during Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s visit in September, something that will allow the two nations to contain China’s alleged expansionism appetites.

A few weeks ago, The Economic Times reported that a historic Indo-Japanese civil nuclear deal – signed in November last year – came into force, enabling Japan to export nuclear power plant technology from India as well as sponsor nuclear power plants in the nuclear-armed nation. The two nuclear-equipped countries signing the landmark deal prompted a furious response from Beijing.

The news comes as Indian and Chinese troops remain locked in the Sino-Indian standoff at the disputed Doklam plateau. With many experts warning that the standoff could spiral into a military confrontation between the two historic rivals, the growing India-Japan strategic partnership comes amid their shared fears of Beijing attempting to change the status quo along the Indo-Bhutan-China trijunction and maritime boundary in East China Sea in Japan’s territory.

But could the development of India-Japan strategic projects under the banner of AAGC help New Delhi and Tokyo counter China’s steadily expanding economic and political outreach in the region?

Why India and Japan’s AAGC Is Doomed to Fail

While India and Japan insist that the idea of AAGC is to create “a free and open Indo-Pacific region” by rediscovering older sea-routes and creating new sea corridors, China is concerned that the initiative is nothing but a cheap knock-off project designed to counterbalance or even disrupt its game-changer Belt and Road initiative.

True, India-Japan’s AAGC is a cheaper alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative or even CPEC, but experts still doubt whether New Delhi and Tokyo could pull if off.

India and Japan’s ambitions to become the world’s prominent epicenters of economic growth could be derailed and doomed to fail due to India’s chronic economic slowdown, with “the makers of India’s monetary policy cutting interest rates” recently and “rates of job shedding,” according to The Economic Times.

Japan – the seeming driving force behind the AAGC initiative due to being the world’s third-largest economy – could expect a substantial slowdown in economic momentum due to the mounting political crisis in the nation. CNBC reported late last month that anti-government protests are on the rise in Japan, with PM Abe – who drowns in school scandals – having his lowest approval rating ever, under 30%.

Riaz Haq said...

Geopolitical revolution as #Pakistan strengthens ties with #China. #CPEC #India #Trump #USA

https://youtu.be/YjRL0JkoSiA via @YouTube

A geopolitical revolution is currently underway in south Asia. With diplomatic relations between the US and Pakistan souring in recent months, Islamabad is inching closer to Beijing. Ties between the two neighbours are set to become even stronger if the multibillion-euro "China Pakistan Economic Corridor" goes ahead as planned. But who stands to benefit the most? Our correspondents in Pakistan report.

Riaz Haq said...


#Pakistan: A slice of #China in #Islamabad. Growing Chinese footprint. #CPEC @AJEnglish

Restaurants, guesthouses and supermarkets are opening to cater for the influx of Chinese fuelled by the CPEC.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/08/pakistan-slice-china-islamabad-170830081303813.html

"This year is, as we call it, the year of early harvest," says Lijian Zhao, China's deputy ambassador to Pakistan. "The ultimate goal is to help Pakistan to develop the economy … to help to accelerate the industrialisation process."

The 43 projects that directly fall under the CPEC banner have seen a tripling of the number of Chinese nationals resident in Pakistan to more than 30,000, according to the Chinese embassy in Islamabad. In addition, Reuters reported, that more than 71,000 Chinese nationals visited on short-term visas last year.

As more Chinese engineers, managers and workers flood into the country, Pakistan has seen a mushrooming of supermarkets, guesthouses and other businesses catering specifically to Chinese needs.

Zhao, the Chinese deputy ambassador, says he's a regular visitor to the new Chinese grocery stores, stocking up on traditional ingredients that are just not available anywhere else in the South Asian country.

"I go for those markets. [Even the embassy] cannot bring everything from China," he says.

The aptly named Firstop (a portmanteau of 'First Stop') is one of the largest such stores in Islamabad. The supermarket's shelves are lined with products manufactured in China: everything from noodles to hardhat construction helmets, sea kelp to stationery, spice mixes to industrial meat grinders.

As a Chinese migrant moving to Islamabad, whether you are looking for a quick meal or to procure the equipment and supplies to set up your own restaurant, it looks like Firstop has got you covered. Most of the demand, though, seems to be for food - both ready-made and ingredients - that are not available in typical Pakistani grocery stores, says Zhang Song, a store manager.

"Mostly the food and other seasonings are imported from China," says Song, in broken English. "Only [the cooking] oil is from Pakistan. Others all from China."

Song, a 29-year-old originally from He Bei province in China, says he moved to Pakistan two years ago to take advantage of the boom in businesses aimed at Chinese citizens.

"Most customers are Chinese people," he says.

Pakistanis, he says, seem to be fond of making Chinese food, but the South Asian version of Chinese food - heavy on garlic, ginger and tomatoes - does not necessarily fit the bill of actual Chinese fare.

"[Traditional] Chinese food is too much different from Pakistani food," he says, smiling.

At the Ni Hao Cash & Carry, a few kilometres away, the scene is much the same. The small store is crammed with row upon row of products labelled in Chinese, with an array of spices arranged in open containers near the back wall.

"A lot of [Pakistanis] walk in and are shocked … they see everything in Chinese here, and wonder perhaps if they've arrived in Beijing," says Rizwan Hassan, a manager at the store.

Hassan and business partner Eraj Raza have been working with Chinese nationals on infrastructure projects for the last seven years, and set up this store about six months ago.

"We built the store because we saw CPEC, and all the companies coming in," says Raza. "Lots of investors are coming in. People are opening restaurants, guesthouses, or other services."

About 90 percent of their customers, says Raza, are Chinese, with the rest made up mostly of Koreans, Thais and other East Asian visitors. Ni Hao also operates another store in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and commercial capital, as well as smaller outlets at more than half a dozen CPEC project sites.

Riaz Haq said...

Any Attack on Pakistan Would Be Construed As an Attack on China

"Any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China," Beijing recently warned the US. After the Abbottabad operation, in which Osama bin Laden was killed, Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani's visited China from May 17 – 21, 2011. His trip was hailed by the Pakistani press as a new historic landmark in bilateral relations, and interpreted as a sign of the progressive breakaway between Pakistan and U.S.


https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2152/china-warns-us-pakistan

China Warns U.S.: 'Any Attack on Pakistan Would Be Construed As an Attack on China' – Evolving Pakistani-Chinese Alliance to Face the U.S./India

https://www.memri.org/reports/china-warns-us-any-attack-pakistan-would-be-construed-attack-china-%E2%80%93-

Riaz Haq said...

Strategic Insights by #India's Sunil Sharan : #Pakistan, a rising power
https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/strategic-insights/pakistan-a-rising-power/ … via @TOIOpinion

Yet, one nation is a rising power, ready to take its rightful place in the comity of nations, while the other is deemed a global pariah, a jelly state if not a failed state. Huh? How did this happen?

The reality is different. The world pays lip service to India for its large middle class and its ability to buy arms on a large scale. India seems to consider this courting as its emergence on the world stage.

Scratch the surface, and you will find something else. The US is denying Indians H1-B visas. The US has delinked the Haqqanis, who they want, from Hafiz Saeed, who they couldn’t care less about, so that they can give dollops of aid to the Pakistanis.

Today the Yanks hector the Pakistanis, but that is empty bluster. The Pakistanis have trumped them; the Yanks’ wails appear like crocodile tears. The Yanks forgot when they invaded Afghanistan and enlisted the Pakistanis’ help by threatening to bomb them into the stone age that the Pakistanis had been there once before.

That time they trumped the Russians, with significant money and arms from the Americans and the Saudis. But the Americans never took to battle in Afghanistan the first time round. Sure they had read that Afghanistan was a graveyard for empires, from the British to the Soviet, but they believed, foolishly, that they themselves would win out.

They struck a Faustian bargain with the Pakistanis, without ever realizing that they were dealing with the devil. In the nineties, the Pakistanis used Afghanistan to hijack Indian planes and launch jihad in Kashmir. Afghanistan had become both strategic depth as well as a launching pad for them. How were they expected to give up this twin treat?

Once the Yanks entered Kabul, the Taliban vanished. Into thin air? Oh no, many of them disappeared into Pakistan. The Yanks forgot about Afghanistan, until first the Iraqis, and then the Taliban, started knocking their teeth out. One by one their Nato brethren fled Afghanistan, until the Yanks realized that they had to flee as well.

Go to Kabul today, and you will find disdain for Pakistan everywhere. But the Pakistanis don’t care. The real people who matter in Afghanistan are the Taliban, and you don’t find many of them in Kabul. The writ of the government of Afghanistan extends over only Kabul, much as the later-day Mughals were derided as the mayors of Delhi.

The Taliban control over sixty percent of the country. The Talibs don’t like the Pakistanis, referring to them often as blacklegs. But the Talibs need Pakistan to capture Kabul, much as the Pakistanis need the Taliban to capture Afghanistan.

The Pakistanis are disdainful of the threats emanating from the Yanks. The Yanks need Pakistani territory to transport supplies to their legionaries in Afghanistan. The Pakistanis blocked their land routes once, and all hell broke loose then. It’s almost impossible to transport goods from the west of Afghanistan.

---

Today Pakistan stands on the cusp of victory in Afghanistan. It spurns the Americans for the Chinese, and lo and behold, the Russians, the very people it had helped kick out of Afghanistan. Politics, or rather realpolitik, sure does make for strange bedfellows.

Pakistan is able to stymie India at every international forum, be it the UN or the nuclear suppliers group. There have even been strong rumours about the Obama administration offering the Pakistanis their own nuclear deal. Trump yells and curses at the Pakistanis, but is the first one to give it gobs of military aid.

Pakistan sure doesn’t seem like a loser. It appears to have come out of Afghanistan smelling of roses. It can blackmail America to its heart’s content, and what is more, happily get away with it. Does it seem like a failed state? A terrorist state? A terrorized state? At least not now. For now it seems that Pakistan’s star, that star in their beloved crescent, is rising. And rising.

Riaz Haq said...

INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES SHOULD REVISIT THEIR OPPOSITION TO CHINA-LED CONNECTIVITY
ARIF RAFIQ


https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/india-united-states-need-rethink-opposition-china-led-connectivity/


But neither Belt and Road nor CPEC is a strategic ploy masquerading as investments, as some allege. CPEC specifically has a real and powerful economic logic for Pakistan, China, and even India. The corridor does offer China some indirect strategic benefits — it consolidates Beijing’s alliance with Islamabad and reduces its dependence on the Malacca chokepoint. But CPEC is ultimately about economics. It not only raises the potential for cross-border Sino-Pak trade, it also enhances Pakistan’s ability to trade with the outside world beyond China. Most of the nodes that constitute the project’s road network bolster Pakistan’s domestic connectivity and with the outside world.

In fact, the aforementioned Karachi-Lahore Motorway resembles India’s own planned Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and runs parallel to it. Much like the Indian highway, the Karachi-Lahore Motorway cuts transport time between Pakistan’s two largest cities. There are also planned industrial zones along the route. And the Karachi-Lahore Motorway will be complemented by upgrades to Pakistan’s main rail line.

Not only do the two highways run parallel to one another, CPEC can potentially fill the gaps in between. For example, with the completion of the Karachi-Lahore Motorway in 2020, Karachi could be the fastest route to sea by road for traders in Amritsar in India’s Punjab state. Additionally, with the completion of the Karakoram Highway realignment, traders in northwestern India may also be able to access western China’s markets more readily through Pakistan, potentially reducing the trade deficit with China that India routinely complains about. While India often thinks of Pakistan as an overland trade route to Afghanistan, there is also potential for India-China transit trade through Pakistan.

Indian commentators, such as Singh, also describe the Gwadar port as a strategic project that is not economically viable. But in fact, that is a more accurate description of India’s Chabahar port project. Gwadar may be able to absorb some of China’s transshipment with the Persian Gulf and East Africa and host industries like mineral processing and petrochemicals. Meanwhile, Chabahar is oriented around Afghanistan, a narco-state whose documented economy has grown at an annual average 1.65% over the past four years, according to the World Bank. India has used Chabahar to send food aid to Afghanistan to bypass the Pakistan transit route and replace Pakistan as Afghanistan’s primary source of imported wheat. But the fact that Indian wheat had to be sent to Afghanistan fully subsidized indicates that the prospects for Chabahar-based Afghanistan trade are dim.

Riaz Haq said...

#Trump Making #China Great Again. As Donald Trump surrenders #America’s global commitments, Xi Jinping is learning to pick up the pieces.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/08/making-china-great-again

When the Chinese action movie “Wolf Warrior II” arrived in theatres, in July, it looked like a standard shoot-’em-up, with a lonesome hero and frequent explosions. Within two weeks, however, “Wolf Warrior II” had become the highest-grossing Chinese movie of all time. Some crowds gave it standing ovations; others sang the national anthem. In October, China selected it as its official entry in the foreign-language category of the Academy Awards.
The hero, Leng Feng, played by the action star Wu Jing (who also directed the film), is a veteran of the “wolf warriors,” special forces of the People’s Liberation Army. In retirement, he works as a guard in a fictional African country, on the frontier of China’s ventures abroad. A rebel army, backed by Western mercenaries, attempts to seize power, and the country is engulfed in civil war. Leng shepherds civilians to the gates of the Chinese Embassy, where the Ambassador wades into the battle and declares, “Stand down! We are Chinese! China and Africa are friends.” The rebels hold their fire, and survivors are spirited to safety aboard a Chinese battleship.
Leng rescues an American doctor, who tells him that the Marines will come to their aid. “But where are they now?” he asks her. She calls the American consulate and gets a recorded message: “Unfortunately, we are closed.” In the final battle, a villain, played by the American actor Frank Grillo, tells Leng, “People like you will always be inferior to people like me. Get used to it.” Leng beats the villain to death and replies, “That was fucking history.” The film closes with the image of a Chinese passport and the words “Don’t give up if you run into danger abroad. Please remember, a strong motherland will always have your back!”
When I moved to Beijing, in 2005, little of that story would have made sense to a Chinese audience. With doses of invention and schmalz, the movie draws on recent events. In 2015, China’s Navy conducted its first international evacuation, rescuing civilians from fighting in Yemen; last year, China opened its first overseas military base, in Djibouti. There has been a deeper development as well. For decades, Chinese nationalism revolved around victimhood: the bitter legacy of invasion and imperialism, and the memory of a China so weak that, at the end of the nineteenth century, the philosopher Liang Qichao called his country “the sick man of Asia.” “Wolf Warrior II” captures a new, muscular iteration of China’s self-narrative, much as Rambo’s heroics expressed the swagger of the Reagan era.

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Late one afternoon in November, I went to see a professor in Beijing who has studied the U.S. for a long time. America’s recent political turmoil has disoriented him. “I’m struggling with this a lot,” he said, and poured me a cup of tea. “I love the United States. I used to think that the multiculturalism of the U.S. might work here. But, if it doesn’t work there, then it won’t work here.” In his view, the original American bond is dissolving. “In the past, you kept together because of common values that you call freedom,” he said. Emerging in its place is a cynical, zero-sum politics, a return to blood and soil, which privileges interests above inspiration.
In that sense, he observed, the biggest surprise in the relationship between China and the United States is their similarity. In both countries, people who are infuriated by profound gaps in wealth and opportunity have pinned their hopes on nationalist, nostalgic leaders, who encourage them to visualize threats from the outside world. “China, Russia, and the U.S. are moving in the same direction,” he said. “They’re all trying to be great again.” ♦

Riaz Haq said...

China’s aid to Pakistan aims for fundamental improvement in economic conditions
By Wang Jiamei Source:Global Times Published: 2018/1/7 23:43:39

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1083768.shtml


China should pay more attention this year to the quality and effectiveness of its economic cooperation with and assistance to Pakistan, as ties are set to get closer amid hostility from the US.

After US President Donald Trump used Twitter to slam Pakistan for harboring terrorists, the US State Department said on Thursday that it would suspend security assistance to Pakistan until the country takes decisive action against the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network, according to Reuters.

As US aid to Pakistan has already been on the decline in recent years, the latter is reportedly concerned about the potential impact of this latest move on its fragile economy. While the US seems unlikely to impose comprehensive economic sanctions on Pakistan, its hostile attitude toward Pakistan is expected to exert certain pressure on the economy, especially for Pakistani companies with Iran-related business.

In these circumstances, it makes perfect sense for Pakistan to shift its foreign policy focus toward China and Russia. The day after Trump's strongly worded tweet, Pakistan's central bank announced that it will be replacing the US dollar with the yuan for bilateral trade and investment with China, a move seen as a clear signal of closer ties.

China will, of course, continue its economic support to Pakistan. China sees Pakistan as a prime partner under the Belt and Road initiative, with land and sea projects worth billions of dollars (known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) under construction. The key to China's cooperation with and assistance to Pakistan will be to improve the quality of bilateral cooperation so that relevant projects can boost the Pakistani economy as soon as possible.

It should be made clear that such China-Pakistan cooperation is not meant as competition for geopolitical advantage with the US, but to really help the Pakistani economy by strengthening its infrastructure. Sustainable economic development in Pakistan will play a positive role in stabilizing the geopolitical environment in South Asia, which will be conducive to overall regional development.

In addition, India needs to change its view of Pakistan. It is reported that the US move to cut aid to Pakistan was a result of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi's diplomacy, according to a tweet by BJP spokesperson GVL Narasimha Rao. This mindset of harming others without gaining any benefiting oneself will only aggravate the confrontation, dragging each other down.

Riaz Haq said...

Beijing’s Trajectory in Science and Technology Shows India Is Far Behind in the Game

https://thewire.in/216576/china-watch-beijings-trajectory-science-technology-shows-india-far-behind-game/

Given the profoundly anti-science attitude of our (Indian) government leaders, things are not likely to change in a hurry.


In contrast, US’s National Science Foundation and National Science Board have recently released their biennial science and engineering indicators which provide detailed figures on research and development (R&D), innovation and engineers. But its true message is in a different direction, “China has become,” concludes Robert J. Samuelson in a column, “or is in the verge of becoming – a scientific and technical superpower. This is not entirely unexpected given the size of the Chinese economy and its massive investments in R&D, even so, he says, “the actual numbers are breathtaking”.

China is the 2nd largest spender in R&D after the US, accounting for 21% of the world total which is $2 trillion. It has been going up 18% a year, as compared to 4% in the US. An OECD report says that China could overtake the US in R&D spending by 2020.
China has overtaken the US in terms of total number of science publications. Technical papers have increased dramatically, even if their impact, as judged by citation indices, may not be that high.
China has increased its technical workforce five times since 2000 to 1.65 million. It also has more B.Sc. degrees in science than any other country and the numbers are growing.
The US continues to produce more PhDs and attract more foreign students. But new international enrollment at US colleges was down for the first time in the decade in 2017. The Trump administration’s anti-immigration rhetoric and actions are scaring away students.
China has begun shifting from being an assembler of high-tech components, to a maker of super computers and aircraft and given the pattern of its investments in R&D and technology development, it is focusing on becoming the world leader in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum communications, quantum computing, biotechnology and electrical vehicles.
As of now, the US still continues to lead in terms of the number of patents and the revenue they generate.
China has also become a more attractive destination for foreign students and is now occupying the third slot after the US and the UK. This year, it is likely to gain the second spot.

China now has a serious programme to attract its own researchers back to the country. The thousand talents plan targets scientists below the age of 40 who have PhDs from prestigious foreign universities. The government offers 500,000 RMB ($80,000) lumpsum to everyone enrolled in the programme and promises research grants ranging from one to three million RMB ($150,000-$300,000). The funding for the programme is growing and in 2011, China awarded 143 scientists out of the 1,100 who applied, and in 2016, 590 from 3,048 applicants.

Individual Chinese universities are offering several times that sum. One specialist in advanced batteries from an MIT post-doctoral programme was offered a salary of $65,000, $900,000 as research grant and $250,000 to buy a house.

The report also flagged the serious deficiencies in US higher secondary education where in 2015, average maths scores for the 4th, 8th and 12th graders dropped for the first time. In the field of R&D and patents and revenue accruing from them, the US remains ahead, but the recent anti-immigration trends pose a serious long-term risk to the American supremacy because in essence, the US has been the best in harvesting talent from across the world.

Riaz Haq said...

Braving security fears, Chinese seek 'Silk Road' riches in Pakistan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-pakistan-insight/braving-security-fears-chinese-seek-silk-road-riches-in-pakistan-idUSKCN1B801X

Zhang Yang, a businessman from Chongqing in southwest China, is searching online forums for fellow stout-hearted entrepreneurs willing to cast aside security concerns and join him on a scouting mission to Pakistan.
Zhang, 48, is one of a growing number of Chinese pioneers sensing an opportunity across the Himalayas in Pakistan, where Beijing has pledged to spend $57 billion on infrastructure projects as part of its “Belt and Road” initiative.

Numbering in the thousands, this second wave of Chinese arrivals are following in the wake of workers on Belt and Road projects. Some are opening restaurants and language schools, while others are working out what products they could sell to a market of 208 million people, or what goods they could make cheaply in Pakistan to sell around the world.

“A lot of industries are already saturated in China,” said Zhang, who has worked in property, electrical appliances and household goods in China and says he wants to explore the potential for setting up factories or importing Chinese goods.

“Pakistan’s development is behind China, so it will hold better opportunities compared to home.”

But the new arrivals face dangers, creating a headache for Pakistani security officials.

Islamic State’s killing of two Chinese nationals in the restive Baluchistan province in June highlighted the risks posed by Islamist militants, who may see them as soft targets in their war with the state.

Beijing has also long fretted about hardened Pakistani Islamist fighters linking up with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a Uigher militant group Beijing accuses of seeking to split off its western region of Xinjiang, Pakistani officials say.

Islamabad does not release immigration data but a source in the foreign ministry said about 71,000 Chinese nationals visited in 2016. A senior immigration official added 27,596 visa extensions were granted to Chinese that year, a 41 percent increase on 2015, suggesting more are staying in the country for longer.

For Pakistan, the stakes in keeping all those Chinese nationals safe are high.

Beijing’s infrastructure splurge has helped revive Pakistan’s sputtering economy, and deepening ties between the two nations have turned Pakistan into a key cog in China’s grand plan to build a modern-day “Silk Road” of land and sea trade routes linking Asia with Europe and Africa.

While the first phase of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as the Pakistan leg of this new Silk Road is called, concentrated on infrastructure projects, the second part will focus on setting up special economic zones and integrating Chinese firms into the local economy to help Pakistan develop its industries ranging from mining to agriculture.

China has also surged to become by far the biggest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) for Pakistan, topping $1 billion in 2016/17, and is betting on its neighbor at a time when many Western companies are still put off by security concerns and corruption.

“Pakistan really needs foreign investment and we are not going to miss out on this because of some idiots with a gun,” said Miftah Ismail, a special adviser to Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. “We won’t let them mess with the Chinese.”





Riaz Haq said...

#Russia eyes opportunities for #energy cooperation with #Pakistan. #LNG #Pipeline

http://tass.com/economy/990860

Russia sees good opportunities for trade and economic cooperation with Pakistan, primarily in energy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, opening talks with his Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Tuesday.

"We have good opportunities in trade and economic cooperation, investment cooperation, most notably in energy, given that the significant part of this sector in your country was created with the assistance of our specialists," Lavrov said.

"One of priority areas of our cooperation is anti-terror fight," Lavrov said. "We expect to continue providing assistance in enhancing your country’s potential to fight terrorism," he stressed.

The Pakistani foreign minister said he saw opportunities for bilateral cooperation in military, technical and banking sectors. He congratulated Lavrov on the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Russia, voicing hope to step up cooperation.

Moscow and Islamabad will establish a commission on military cooperation, he said.

"A commission on military cooperation is being formed," Lavrov said. "We have confirmed Russia’s readiness to continue boosting Pakistan’s counterterrorism capacity, which is in the entire region’s interests," the Russian top diplomat added.

"Last year, we handed four Mil Mi-35M combat and cargo helicopters over to our partners," he went on to say. "I am sure that they have been in demand as far as counterterrorism operations go, as our colleagues told us today," the Russian foreign minister noted.

Russia and Pakistan will continue the practice of organizing Druzhba (Friendship) joint tactical drills. "We have decided to continue the practice of organization of joint tactical exercises Druzhba to drill skills of counter-terrorist organizations in mountainous conditions," he said. "Such drills were conducted last autumn in Russia’s Karachay-Cherkessia."



More:
http://tass.com/economy/990860

Riaz Haq said...

#SaudiArabia joins #Turkey and #China to Block #UnitedStates' effort to put #Pakistan on #FATF Terror Watch List - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistan-avoids-inclusion-on-international-terror-financing-watch-list-1519257040

Saudi Arabia joined Turkey and China in a move to block a U.S.-led attempt this week to place Pakistan on an international terror-financing watch list, according to officials involved in the process, in a rare disagreement between Riyadh and the Trump administration.

Saudi Arabia’s move on behalf of Pakistan came just days after Islamabad said it would send more than 1,000 troops to the Gulf kingdom, which has expanded its military posture in the region since its 2015 intervention in Yemen’s civil war.

A U.S. effort to reverse the decision on the watch list was under way Wednesday at a meeting in Paris of the Financial Action Task Force, a secretive international body that monitors countries’ efforts to fight terror financing and money-laundering, according to the officials involved in the process.

The officials said the U.S. effort, which included pressure on the Saudis, raised the possibility of a fresh vote on action against Pakistan as soon as Thursday. The Pakistanis were scrambling to shore up support.

The Trump administration, angry with what it sees as inadequate efforts by Islamabad to combat terror groups, has sought to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan. Last month it said it was withholding $2 billion in security aid until it sees much stronger action against militants. U.S. officials also accuse Pakistan’s military of supporting some jihadist groups as proxies against neighboring India and Afghanistan.

Pakistan denies those accusations and says there are no terrorist sanctuaries within its territory.

Saudi Arabia is a close U.S. ally, with its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, forming a personal bond with the family of President Donald Trump. It was Saudi Arabia’s surprise backing that secured the necessary opposing votes to block the U.S.

If U.S. lobbying is successful and the task force does end up adding Pakistan to its list of countries deemed “high risk” for doing too little to curb terror financing, banks, other lenders and international companies seeking to do business with the South Asian country could rethink financial ties, putting a damper on its already struggling economy.

The U.S. was supported in its effort to put Pakistan on the watch list by the U.K., France, Germany and other countries. The proposal was initiated at a working group, which is responsible for making recommendations to the 35 member nations and two regional groups that make up the FATF plenary. The meeting continues through Friday.


Pakistan was supported by China and Turkey heading into the FATF working-group meeting earlier this week. Turkey and the U.S. are allies as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, though they are at odds with one another over actions in Syria.

The Trump administration has sought to work with Beijing to constrain North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, but China has allied with Pakistan as a foil against India, where long-simmering tensions over the border have pitted Delhi and Islamabad against one another.

Pakistan had lobbied FATF member countries to keep it off the watch list. It also took last-minute action against Pakistan-based militant group Jamaat-ud-Dawa, complying with 10-year-old United Nations sanctions against the group, which the international community holds responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attack that killed 166 people.

“Our efforts paid,” said Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Twitter. “No consensus for nominating Pakistan,” he said, adding, “Grateful to friends who helped.”

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s critical role in the New Cold War
M. K. Bhadrakumar - February 23, 2018

https://www.globalvillagespace.com/pakistans-critical-role-new-cold-war/


The Russian Ministry took pains to highlight Asif’s visit. A ‘working visit’ cuts out protocol frills and gets straight to transacting business. Yet, Moscow made an exception and issued a glowing ‘curtain-raiser’ to hail Asif’s arrival. There must have been strong reasons to do so. The regional backdrop is indeed tumultuous. The new Cold War is slouching toward the Hindu Kush and Central Asian steppes and Pakistan’s geography is regaining the criticality in strategic terms reminiscent of the 1980s.

Russia’s interest lies in boosting Pakistan’s grit and capacity to withstand US pressure. Interestingly, Lavrov and Asif also discussed Syria where the US has lately switched to an offensive mode against Russia. Again, Asif voiced Pakistan’s opposition to the sanctions against Russia.

The Russian statements have become highly critical of the US regional strategies in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Moscow has concluded that the US is determined to keep an open-ended military presence in the region. On the other hand, Russia is being kept at arm’s length from the Afghan problem. Instead, Washington is directly engaging the Central Asian states, bypassing Russia, including at the military level. Clearly, Washington is working hard to undermine Moscow’s leadership role in the region in the fight against terrorism and to challenge Russia’s notion of being the provider of security to the former Soviet republics neighboring Afghanistan.

Given the experience in Syria (where the US is covertly encouraging the ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates to make the going tough for the Russia and to create new facts on the ground that weaken Syria’s unity), Moscow is increasingly weary of the US intentions vis-à-vis the ISIS in Afghanistan. To be sure, the growing presence of the ISIS in the northern and eastern regions of Afghanistan facing the Central Asian region deeply worries Russia. Moscow has repeatedly hinted that US could be facilitating the transfer of ISIS fighters from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan.

Read more: India’s flirtation with the ‘war talk’ has Nuclear war clouds hovering…

But the Americans move on, ignoring the Russian barbs. The pattern in Syria is repeating. Lavrov brought up the US-ISIS nexus in the discussions with Asif. The Russian side has floated the idea that the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization can be put to use “to develop practical measures to curtail ISIS influence in Afghanistan and prevent it from spreading to Central Asia.”

From Lavrov’s remarks following the talks with Asif, it appears that the SCO summit, which is scheduled to be held in Qingdao (China) in July, may make some moves/initiatives on the Afghan problem. Last year Russia injected a new lease of life into the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group. China will be hosting the next meeting of the Contact Group. The fact is that with the admission of Pakistan and India as full members, SCO now represents all key neighbors of Afghanistan.

We advocate a regional approach towards resolving the situation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. We expect participants in the Moscow format of consultations on the Afghan issue and the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group to work productively.

At the media briefing after the talks with Asif, Lavrov outlined that Russia and Pakistan have common ground in regard of the Afghan situation. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry readout stated that the two ministers “agreed to closely coordinate in all Afghanistan-related processes for a regional solution of the Afghan conflict.”

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia wants to punish #India as #Modi gets closer to #Washington. #China #Balochistan #Pakistan @Diplomat_APAC

https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/has-russia-lost-patience-with-india/

Has Russia Lost Patience With India?
Russian attempts to punish perceived Indian transgressions could have serious impact on their relationship.

By Rajesh Soami
March 02, 2018

Although clouds have been gathering for the past few years around the relationship between Russia and India, recent events suggest that things may have come to a head sooner than expected. Russian attempts to court Pakistan, India`s hostile western neighbor, in the last two weeks support such a conclusion.

First, on February 17, a rebel leader from Balochistan province in Pakistan, who had been residing in exile in Moscow for the last 18 years, switched sides. Dr. Jumma Marri Baloch has long been one of the major leaders of the movement in the western province of Balochistan to free itself from Pakistan. He reportedly designed the flag of the “free Balochistan” separatist movement. In his reconciliation interview with a Russian media outlet, Marri blamed India for hijacking the indigenous Baloch revolt. As the drama unfolded in Moscow, one may wonder whether it was a not so subtle a message to Delhi about Russian ability to embarrass India if such a need arises.

The next week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, to Moscow for a four-day trip. Moscow stated it was ready to help Pakistan increase its anti-terror capabilities — this can be read as a euphemism for providing arms to Islamabad.

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Neither of these two developments will go down well with New Delhi. Considering that the first cannot be undone, one wonders what could possibly have gone so wrong for Moscow to take such a step.

China’s rise, together with economic atrophy in Russia, has prompted a realigning of relations between Moscow and New Delhi. A weaker Russia has been cozying up to a wealthy China. In fact, after the West slapped economic sanctions on Russia, there was only one direction Moscow could go. The last of the Russia-China border disputes were resolved in 2004 and relations have been on an upswing since. While Russia has been having the best phase of its relationship with China, India has moved in the opposite direction.

Strong economic, diplomatic, and increasing military support from China to Pakistan is an irritant for India. India and China also have a long and disputed border in the Himalayas. A standoff in the border region between the two countries last summer threatened to blow into a military showdown but that disaster scenario was averted. Nevertheless, hostile rhetoric by Beijing during the dispute is seen as increasing assertiveness on the back of China’s newfound power and stature in world affairs. India is furthermore wary of Chinese moves around its neighborhood, primarily Beijing’s use of its economic heft.

Adding two and two together, New Delhi may be doubtful of Russia coming to its support in case of serious problems with its northeastern neighbor. The growing strength of China and increasing Russian reliance on Beijing means that Moscow may have neither the will nor the means to help India in the future. To break the perceived China-Pakistan encirclement of India, New Delhi has been happy to find allies elsewhere.

Riaz Haq said...

America Cannot Afford to Lose Pakistan to China

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-cannot-afford-lose-pakistan-china-25761?page=show

Matthew Reisener

China has long been projected as the country most likely to emerge as a peer competitor to the United States in the coming decades, and such an ascension would only serve to strengthen the growing ties between both China and Pakistan and the United States and India. Fearing that China’s rise could threaten its own, India would likely seek closer ties with the United States to reduce the risks posed by Chinese encirclement, which would further drive a wedge between the United States and Pakistan and draw Islamabad deeper into China’s orbit. This divide would be made greater still should President Trump, or any subsequent presidential administration, take additional action to alienate Pakistan and incentivize it to move closer to China for foreign support.

Security competition tends to incentivize great powers to form coalitions against their potential rivals, as evidenced by the creation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. Should India pursue a more formal alliance with the United States, then the strengthening of Pakistan’s relationship with China could result in the Islamic Republic completely breaking with America in favor of a similar arrangement with the revisionist Chinese power. The formation of such alliances inherently heightens geopolitical tensions, but these particular coalitions could prove uniquely conflict-prone considering the states that compose them. Given the lengthy history of conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, it is not difficult to imagine a fifth Indo-Pak war quickly escalating into a proxy conflict between the United States and China, resulting in four nuclear-armed nations at one another’s throats.

In the interest of avoiding such tensions, America should actively seek to salvage its relationship with Pakistan to improve the long-term prospects for stability and security in South Asia. Such an endeavor would require greater engagement by the United States with Pakistan’s civilian government, which has often been neglected in favor of developing strong ties with the Pakistani military. Additionally, Pakistan has, “one of the most robust civil societies in the developing world,” that has often been ignored by American policymaker, but, if properly engaged, could work hand-in-hand with the United States to promote local solutions to counterterrorism. A greater emphasis on public diplomacy and civil-society development, combined with a gradual reduction in American drone operations in Pakistan, could markedly improve America’s relationship with both the government and people of Pakistan.

Additionally, the United States must be conscious of the way it balances its relationships with both India and Pakistan. The Trump administration should heed Pakistan’s calls to increase its involvement in promoting a political settlement in Afghanistan, which would reduce Pakistan’s need to rely on China or the Haqqani network to exert political influence in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the United States should help facilitate dialogue between India and Pakistan over areas of potential economic and political cooperation in Afghanistan, since lessening Pakistan’s concerns about Indian influence in Kabul would minimize Pakistan’s incentive to continue providing support to the Taliban-affiliated groups in its tribal regions. Finally, closer ties between America and Pakistan improve America’s capacity to mediate disputes between Pakistan and India, reducing the likelihood that China’s rise will result in another conflict between them.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistani troops to receive #training at #Russian #military institutes as #Trump policies push #Pakistan closer to #Russia and #China. #Pakistan https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistani-troops-to-receive-training-at-russian-military-institutes/article24631024.ece

Pakistan and Russia have signed an agreement to allow Pakistani troops to receive training at Russian military training institutes, a move aimed at boosting their bilateral defence ties.

The agreement was signed on Tuesday at the conclusion of the first meeting of Russia-Pakistan Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC), according to Pakistan’s defence ministry.

“Both countries signed the Contract on Admission of Service Members of Pakistan in RF’s (Russian Federation) Training Institutes,” the ministry said.

The Russian side was led by Deputy Defence Minister Col Gen. Alexander V. Fomin who visited Pakistan from August 6-7 to attend the first session of Russia-Pakistan Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC).

Lt. Gen (retd.) Zamir ul Hassan Shah, Secretary Defence, led the Pakistani delegation during the JMCC meeting.

Prior to the inaugural meeting, held on Tuesday at the Ministry of Defence in Rawalpindi, the visiting dignitary called on the defence secretary and the defence minister.

During the meetings, the two sides discussed the present status of their bilateral defence relations with the aim to further strengthen, expand and diversify mutual cooperation.

JMCC is the highest forum of defence collaboration between Pakistan and Russia.

During the inaugural session of the JMCC, both sides exchanged views on bilateral and major international issues including situation in the Middle East and Afghanistan.

A comprehensive issue based review was also carried out during which the two countries expressed satisfaction on the milestones achieved since the signing of ground breaking Agreement on Defence Cooperation in 2014. The two sides also held in depth discussions on avenues of future cooperation, the defence ministry said.

Col. Gen. Fomin also met Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and the three services chiefs.

An Army spokesman said that Col Gen Fomin met Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and discussed the regional security situation and matters of mutual interest including enhancement of bilateral defence and security cooperation.

Gen. Fomin expressed his appreciation for Pakistan Army’s achievements against terrorism and expressed requirement of greater cooperative and collaborative approach among global community to defeat extremism.

Pakistan’s defence ties with Russia have moved past the bitter Cold War hostilities in recent years and the chill in the relations between Pakistan and the U.S. has further pushed the country towards Russia and China.

Pakistan has shown eagerness to build military-to-military level ties with Russia.

Earlier this year, the then foreign minister Khawaja Asif visited Moscow during which the two sides agreed to set up a commission to boost military cooperation.

Russia has over the past three years provided four Mi-35M combat and cargo helicopters to Pakistan and the militaries of the two countries also held joint drills codenamed ‘Friendship’.

Riaz Haq said...

How US policy is turning Pakistan into a Chinese colony, thwarting America’s regional ambitions
Adnan Aamir says the US’ decision to block an IMF loan to Pakistan will only push the country more deeply into China’s sphere of influence

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2158663/how-us-policy-turning-pakistan-chinese-colony


The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a multibillion-dollar flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, is extremely important for both countries involved. Pakistan considers it an economic saviour and China sees it as the role model for future belt and road projects.

Ever since the inception of the economic corridor in April 2015, there were concerns that the US government would oppose the project under some pretext. The moment came on July 30 when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed to block an International Monetary Fund bailout package for Pakistan if it is used to repay Chinese loans borrowed under CPEC.

Pakistan held its general elections on July 25, which were not free from claims of irregularities. However, election results confirmed that cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan will form the government. It was revealed that finance ministry officials have already presented an option for the new government to borrow US$12 billion from the IMF to ease pressure on dwindling foreign reserves and repay overseas loans.

Pakistan’s economy is struggling and its remaining reserves of just US$9 billion can only cover the country’s imports for the next two months. Therefore, an IMF bailout is inevitable if Pakistan’s economy is to survive.

Unexpectedly, just five days after Pakistan’s elections, Pompeo opposed an IMF bailout package to Pakistan. He argued that American taxpayer dollars are part of IMF funding and therefore the US government would not allow a bailout package for Pakistan that could be used to repay Chinese creditors or the government of China. This is the first time the US government has openly made a move that is tantamount to attacking Pakistan-China economic cooperation.

It is a move that will further damage the US’ relations with Pakistan. The “war on terror” after September 11 made Pakistan a close ally of the US. From 2002 to 2016, Pakistan received US$33 billion in military and economic aid from the US. However, over time, US-Pakistan relations lost their warmth because of the US administration’s increasing demands that Pakistan stop the Taliban from using its territory to mount attacks in Afghanistan. In August 2017, relations reached a new low after the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy, which criticised Pakistan for harbouring Taliban terrorists.

Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s recent statement is a major blow to US-Pakistan relations. This does not bode well for peace and stability in Afghanistan because now Pakistan will not be motivated to cooperate with the US government anymore on the Afghan front.

Given that the US is a major power broker in the IMF, its opposition will effectively thwart a bailout package for Pakistan. The country will have to explore other options to secure the funds needed to stimulate its economy. Unfortunately, there are not many countries or funding organisations that can offer Pakistan a generous financial bailout. Thus, Pakistan would be left with no choice but to ask for help from its all-weather friend – China.

Pakistan is already relying on Chinese loans to stabilise its currency, the Pakistani rupee. China has already agreed to lend Pakistan US$2 billion, of which US$1 billion has already been paid and is helping to to temporarily stabilise the value of the rupee.

----------

The US decision to block the IMF bailout has effectively put Pakistan on the path to becoming a Chinese economic colony. This will certainly not help the US in increasing its influence in South Asia and Indochina, but will rather immensely increase the influence of China in South Asia.

Riaz Haq said...

#US cuts International #Military Education and Training program (IMET) with #Pakistan as Trump cracks down. #American officials worried the decision could undermine a key trust-building measure.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1777725/1-us-cuts-military-training-programmes-pakistan-trump-cracks/

The Pentagon and the Pakistan Army did not comment directly on the decision or the internal deliberations, but officials from both countries privately criticised the move. US officials, speaking to Reuters on the condition of anonymity, said they were worried the decision could undermine a key trust-building measure.

Pakistani officials warned it could push their military to further look to China or Russia for leadership training. The effective suspension of Pakistan from the US government’s International Military Education and Training program (IMET) will close off places that had been set aside for 66 Pakistani officers this year, a State Department spokesperson told Reuters.

The places will either be unfilled or given to officers from other countries. Dan Feldman, a former US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, called the move “very short-sighted and myopic”. “This will have lasting negative impacts limiting the bilateral relationship well into the future,” Feldman told Reuters.

The State Department spokesperson, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the IMET cancellations were valued at $2.41 million so far. At least two other programmes have also been affected, the spokesperson said. It is unclear precisely what level of military cooperation still continues outside the IMET programme, beyond the top-level contacts between US and Pakistani military leaders.

The US military has traditionally sought to shield such educational programmes from political tensions, arguing that the ties built by bringing foreign military officers to the United States pay long-term dividends. For example, the US Army’s War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, which would normally have two Pakistani military officers per year, boasts graduates including Lieutenant General Naveed Mukhtar, the Director-General Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI).

The War College, the US Army’s premier school for foreign officers, says it has hosted 37 participants from Pakistan over the past several decades. It will have no Pakistani students in the upcoming academic year, a spokeswoman said. Pakistan has also been removed from programmes at the US Naval War College, Naval Staff College and courses including cybersecurity studies.

Riaz Haq said...

#UniteStates tilts toward #India in shifting #SouthAsia policy "risks polarizing the regional order in which #Washington looms as a condescending and partisan actor which #Pakistan hates to engage" #COMCASA #Pompeo #Mattis - Global Times http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1118949.shtml#.W5fZKOclhuM.twitter

It seems that the US' South Asia policy has witnessed significant developments in the past few weeks. On the one hand Washington announced it would cancel $300 million in military assistance to Pakistan and named Zalmay Khalilzad, a long-time critic of Pakistan, as a special envoy to Afghanistan. On the other Washington signed with New Delhi a long-due major military communications agreement which allows them to closely coordinate on a compatible network just like the US and its closest allies do.

According to the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy, the Trump administration recently indicated that Washington's strategic focus has shifted from dealing with global terrorism to managing major power rivalries. So, when it comes to its South Asia policy, this sea change in concept has also been materialized into concrete policy options toward both Pakistan and India: Pakistan can no longer enjoy a special status like it did during the war on terror, whereas India, sharing common anxieties against a rising China with the US, assumes new importance on Washington's radar screen.

As a result of Washington's strategic focus shift, the US-Pakistan relationship has been troubled for some time. In his first talk about South Asian policy in August 2017, Trump went so far as to openly denounce Pakistan as the "safe havens" for terrorist organizations. Again, Trump's very first tweet in 2018 was a surprising and scathing attack on Pakistan, accusing the country of providing "nothing but lies and deceit" in return for multi-billion US aid over past 15 or so years. Since then, Washington suspended more than $1.1 billion in security assistance to Pakistan. The final cancellation of $300 million assistance announced on September 1 was actually part of Coalition Support Funds which had been suspended initially at the beginning of the year.

In the post-9/11 era, the US offered billions of dollars to Pakistan in order to support counterterrorism mission against Al Qaeda, to operationalize robust intelligence cooperation and to equip Pakistani army with the capacity to target militants from all around. But, as Al-Qaeda has been decimated over time and threat from other radical groups have grown, Washington found its aid to Pakistan increasingly hard to justify.

The focus of the struggle has been the terrorist groups. While the US and Afghanistan accuse Pakistan of offering sanctuary to Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network, Islamabad categorically denies the charges and emphasizes that it has acted indiscriminately against all armed groups on its soil, turning to accuse Kabul of allowing elements in the Pakistani Taliban to operate in the eastern provinces of Afghanistan.

While the transactional nature of US-Pakistani relationship has indeed been discovered and discussed, Trump, whose characteristics have been best illustrated in his book The Art of the Deal, simply exacerbates the situation by more transactional moves. The situation is rather clear now: with rapidly shrinking strategic common ground between Washington and Islamabad, bilateral relations are increasingly reduced to one single issue—Afghanistan. And, the issue of Afghanistan seems transactional and tactical rather than strategic. What now concerns Washington the most is settling the Afghan conflict after 17 years of painful attrition. To win the war in Afghanistan, Washington needs Islamabad for supply routes and to negotiate a lasting settlement and peace, meaning that neither side can afford to snap relations.

Riaz Haq said...

Afghan war helped Pakistan keep nuclear option: US papers

https://www.dawn.com/news/1453065

Torn between preventing Pakistan from going nuclear and fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, the United States appears to have decided that pushing the Russians out of Kabul was more important, shows a set of documents released by the US State Department.

Official US memos and letter — released under an arrangement to make public official documents after 30 years — show that Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (in office from 1978 to 1989) also played a key role in convincing Washington to continue to support Islamabad despite its nuclear programme.

A confidential State Department report, dated Aug 20, 1984, shows that by 1984 Washington knew Islamabad had acquired the capability to build nuclear weapons.

“Despite public and private assurances by President Zia (ul Haq) that Pakistan has neither the intention, means, nor capability to acquire nuclear explosives, we have extensive and convincing intelligence that the Pakistanis are pressing forward to perfect the design of a nuclear weapon, fabricate nuclear weapon components, and acquire the necessary nuclear material for such a device,” the report says.


“Recent progress in Pakistan’s uranium enrichment programme may … soon create a situation in which we could not rule out the possibility that Pakistan was taking all of the steps required to assemble a nuclear device, or even to stockpile nuclear weapons.”

The document notes that the development forced Washington to make “a stark choice” between: (1) Acquiescing in Pakistan’s nuclear activities and thus incurring almost certain Congressional action against US security assistance to Pakistan, the possibility of an Indian pre-emptive strike against the Pakistani nuclear facilities, and seriously undermining the credibility of US global non-proliferation policy. (2) Terminating the US-Pakistan security relationship, thereby imperilling the Afghan resistance to Soviet occupation, doing grave and long-term harm to US political and security interests in Southwest Asia and with China, and convincing Pakistan it had nothing further to lose by building nuclear weapons or even conducting a nuclear test.

“Either outcome would constitute a serious foreign policy defeat,” the report warns.

It notes that Washington concluded a $3.2 billion, six-year security and development assistance package with Pakistan to obtain its restraint in the nuclear area. Washington also hoped that a security relationship with the US would “eventually convince Pakistan, that it could forego a nuclear weapons option”.

Other documents show that Deng Xiaoping not only convinced Washington to tolerate Pakistan’s nuclear programme but also persuaded it to start giving more military and financial aid to Islamabad.

Deng worked closely with Zia to convince the then Jimmy Carter administration that India under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi would be pro-Soviet.

“There are limits on our ability to aid Pakistan because of their nuclear explosive programme. Although we still object to their doing so, we will now set that aside for the time being, to facilitate strengthening Pakistan against potential Soviet action,” the then US Defence Secretary Harold Brown said in a Jan 8, 1980 meeting with Deng.

The documents show that the Chinese leader called this “a very good approach”, telling Washington that “Pakistan has its own reasons for developing a nuclear programme”.

Deng points out that India started the nuclear race in South Asia, causing Pakistan to start its own programme.

“Pakistan has its own arguments, i.e., India has exploded a nuclear device but the world has not seemed to complain about this,” Deng told Brown.

“So, now you have decided to put this aside and solve the question of military and economic aid to Pakistan. We applaud this decision,” said Deng.

He also convinced the US not to equate India and Pakistan when it comes to giving aid.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia Competes With #China for #Arms Sales to #Pakistan. Total bill could top $9 billion with likely purchase of Russian heavy and medium fighter #jets, medium and short-range air defense systems, combat helicopters, tanks, and warships. https://www.theepochtimes.com/russia-competes-with-china-for-arms-sales-to-pakistan_2885710.html via @epochtimes

or years, Beijing has been the biggest arms supplier to Islamabad, with defense purchases as a key element of their close ties. Now, Russia is looking to make inroads into the Pakistani weapons market.

Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported on April 15 that Pakistan has expressed interest in making a huge purchase of Russian military hardware, citing comments from Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Moscow-based defense think tank Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

The total invoice could top $9 billion, according to Makienko, who added that Pakistan would likely purchase Russian heavy and medium fighter jets, medium and short-range air defense systems, combat helicopters, tanks, and warships.

Makienko named two types of Russian military hardware that would likely be on Islamabad’s shopping list: the new Russian fighter jet MiG-35 and the heavy transport helicopter Mi-26T2.

Pakistani authorities haven’t confirmed this planned purchase, nor have Pakistani media reported on it thus far.


But Makienko noted that given the low-competitive nature of the military market in Pakistan, which is dominated by China, Russia would likely receive extremely favorable terms on the purchase contracts.

He added that Pakistan has not made requests such as technology transfer or localization of production as terms for any purchases.

China supplied weapons worth over $6.4 billion to Pakistan from 2008 to 2018, making it Pakistan’s biggest supplier, according to data from the independent arms research institute SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), followed by the United States with $2.5 billion, and Italy with $471 million worth of weapons.

Currently, Chinese-made jets make up the bulk of Pakistan’s fleet of fighter jets: the Chengdu J-7, and JF-17 Thunder. The former was modeled after the Russian jet MiG-21, while the latter was developed jointly by the Pakistani state-owned aerospace company Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s state-owned Chengdu Aircraft Corp.

In 2016, one of the biggest arms deals between China and Pakistan was signed, with the sale of eight Chinese diesel-electric attack submarines manufactured by state-run China Shipbuilding Trading Corporation, to be delivered to the Pakistan Navy by 2028, according to Pakistan’s English-language newspaper The Express Tribune.

Aside from arms sales, there have been other recent signs that Russia and Pakistan plan to enhance their military ties.

On March 24, Russia’s Federal News Agency (FAN) reported comments by Pakistani Major General Asif Ghafoor about expanding defense cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad. Ghafoor said that there could be more military contracts between the two countries, as Pakistan had just received its orders of Russian attack helicopters Mi-35, a purchase made in 2015.

A week later, on March 30, unnamed senior officials at Pakistan’s foreign ministry told local English-language daily newspaper The Nation that Islamabad and Moscow had agreed to exchange high-level visits more frequently, with defense being the main component of growing ties between the two countries.

Russia and China are competing for customers for their military equipment worldwide. Russian news agency TASS, in an editorial published on March 29, noted that China was a market competitor in the sale of submarines, citing the case of Thailand’s navy choosing to buy submarines from China over shipbuilders in Russia, South Korea, and Germany.

Riaz Haq said...

“...[R]ivalry with #China is becoming an organizing principle of #US #economic, #foreign and #security policies....This means control over China, or separation from China”. #US has already chosen #India as its ally. Neutrality not an option for #Pakistan https://www.dawn.com/news/1487040

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The US is arming India with the latest weapons and technologies whose immediate and greatest impact will be on Pakistan. India’s military buildup is further exacerbating the arms imbalance against Pakistan, encouraging Indian aggression and lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in a Pakistan-India conflict. Washington has joined India in depicting the legitimate Kashmiri freedom struggle as ‘Islamist terrorism’.
----------

A hybrid war is being waged against Pakistan. Apart from the arms buildup, ceasefire violations across the LoC and opposition to Kashmiri freedom, ethnic agitation in ex-Fata and TTP and BLA terrorism has been openly sponsored by India, along with a hostile media campaign with Western characteristics. FATF’s threats to put Pakistan on its black list and the opposition to CPEC are being orchestrated by the US and India. The US has also delayed the IMF package for Pakistan by objecting to repayment of Chinese loans from the bailout.
--------
AFTER the secretive Bilderberg meetings in Switzerland last week, Martin Wolf, the respected Financial Times economic columnist, wrote an op-ed entitled: ‘The 100 year fight facing the US and China’. Wolf’s conclusions are significant:

“...[R]ivalry with China is becoming an organising principle of US economic, foreign and security policies”; “The aim is US domination. This means control over China, or separation from China”. This effort is bound to fail. “This is the most important geopolitical development of our era. ...[I]t will increasingly force everybody else to take sides or fight hard for neutrality”; “ Anybody who believes that a rules-based multilateral order, our globalised economy, or even harmonious international relations, are likely to survive this conflict is deluded”.

Pakistan is near if not in the eye of the brewing Sino-US storm. Neutrality is not an option for Pakistan. The US has already chosen India as its strategic partner to counter China across the ‘Indo-Pacific’ and South Asia. The announced US South Asia policy is based on Indian domination of the subcontinent. Notwithstanding India’s trade squabbles with Donald Trump, the US establishment is committed to building up India militarily to counter China.

On the other hand, strategic partnership with China is the bedrock of Pakistan’s security and foreign policy. The Indo-US alliance will compel further intensification of the Pakistan-China partnership. Pakistan is the biggest impediment to Indian hegemony over South Asia and the success of the Indo-US grand strategy. Ergo, they will try to remove or neutralise this ‘impediment’.

---------

Even as it seeks to stabilise the economy and revive growth, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership must remain focused on preserving Pakistan’s security and strategic independence. The alternative is to become an Indo-American satrap.

A better future is possible. But it is not visible on the horizon.

Against all odds, presidents Trump and Xi may resolve their differences over trade and technology at the forthcoming G20 Summit or thereafter. Or, Trump may be defeated in 2020 by a reasonable Democrat who renounces the cold war with China. Alternately, Modi may be persuaded by Putin, Xi and national pride not to play America’s cat’s-paw and join a cooperative Asian order, including the normalisation of ties with Pakistan. Yet, Pakistan cannot base its security and survival on such optimistic future scenarios. It must plan for the worst while hoping for the best.

Riaz Haq said...

The Silk Road came into being during the westward expansion of China’s Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE), which forged trade networks throughout what are today the Central Asian countries of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as modern-day India and Pakistan to the south. Those routes extended more than four thousand miles to Europe.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative

Xi’s vision included creating a vast network of railways, energy pipelines, highways, and streamlined border crossings, both westward—through the mountainous former Soviet republics—and southward, to Pakistan, India, and the rest of Southeast Asia. Such a network would expand the international use of Chinese currency, the renminbi, while new infrastructure could “break the bottleneck in Asian connectivity,” according to Xi. (The Asian Development Bank estimates that the region faces a yearly infrastructure financing shortfall of nearly $800 billion.) In addition to physical infrastructure, China plans to build fifty special economic zones, modeled after the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which China launched in 1980 during its economic reforms under leader Deng Xiaoping.

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China’s overall ambition for the BRI is staggering. To date, more than sixty countries—accounting for two-thirds of the world’s population—have signed on to projects or indicated an interest in doing so. Analysts estimate the largest so far to be the $68 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a collection of projects connecting China to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. In total, China has already spent an estimated $200 billion on such efforts. Morgan Stanley has predicted China’s overall expenses over the life of the BRI could reach $1.2–1.3 trillion by 2027, though estimates on total investments vary.


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Developing the economies of South and Central Asia is a longstanding U.S. goal that intensified after the start of the U.S. war in Afghanistan and President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia. The Obama administration frequently referenced the need for the Afghan economy to move past foreign assistance, and in 2014 then Deputy Secretary of State William Burns committed the United States to returning Central and South Asia “to its historic role as a vital hub of global commerce, ideas, and culture.” In this spirit, the Obama administration supported a $10 billion gas pipeline through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. It also spent billions of dollars on roads and energy projects in Afghanistan and used its diplomatic muscle to help craft new regional cooperation frameworks to foster Central Asian economic links.

----------------

Policymakers in New Delhi have long been unsettled by China’s decades-long embrace of traditional rival Pakistan, and since the George W. Bush administration, U.S. leaders have seen India as a regional balancer against a China-dominated Asia. The Trump administration’s 2017 Indo-Pacific Strategy framed India as a counterweight to China’s “repressive vision of the world order” based on “economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats.” India has provided its own development assistance to neighbors, most notably Afghanistan, where it has spent $3 billion on infrastructure projects, including the parliament building, roads, hospitals, and dams.

Riaz Haq said...

Upcoming #India-#Japan 2+2 meeting to cement new special relationship against #China. Bilateral meetings between #defense and #foreign ministers ahead of next month’s annual summit between Prime Ministers #ShinzoAbe of Japan and Narendra #Modi of India. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/20/china-war-navy-india-japan-eye-dragon-in-the-room/

This will only be India’s second such 2+2, after a similar exchange with the United States last year, but it heralds the continuation of a new era of energy and potential in the special relationship forming between Tokyo and New Delhi. Relations between India and Japan provide a stabilizing anchor for rules-based norms and values at a time when the United States is increasingly preoccupied with domestic concerns and Asia is wracked by the unsettling rise of China and the sweeping winds of nationalism and authoritarianism. In a region where history often weighs heavily, the two countries remain singularly unencumbered by ideological or territorial disputes.

After the end of World War II, India did not attend the 1951 San Francisco Peace Conference, believing the U.S.-brokered treaty would limit Japanese sovereignty. Instead, India and Japan negotiated a separate peace in 1952, which former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described during a 2005 Japanese state visit to New Delhi as bestowing on Tokyo “a proper position of honor and equality among the community of free nations.”

On this bedrock of early postwar goodwill, Japan delivered to India in 1958 its first of many yen loan disbursements to Asia. Today, India has been the largest recipient of Japanese development aid for several decades, underscoring an era of cooperation that has seen hundreds of billions of yen translate into projects of crucial importance for India domestically, and for Asia regionally. The Delhi Metro, completed and expanded with Japanese financing and technical support, represents a crowning jewel of this bilateral friendship.

India-Japan relations have been marked by growing long-term strategic, economic, and political convergence. The relationship now stands as a “special strategic and global partnership” bolstered by a flurry of joint prime ministerial declarations. However, more can be done to transform these commitments into practical measures or overturn roadblocks to collaboration, underscoring the need for the upcoming 2+2 to go beyond a stocktaking exercise in reaffirming bilateral ties.


New Delhi’s “Make in India” and “Digital India", 5G, Infrastructure, “free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”,Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC)

Riaz Haq said...

Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Deng Xiaoping's comments in Beijing to Albanian Communist Party's visiting delegation in 1962 (as quoted in China’s India War, 1962 as quoted in"Looking Back to See the Future: Looking Back to See the Future" edited by Air Commodore Jasjit Singh published in 2013:

"During the last two years it is clear that the American imperialists are helping two forces in Asia: Japan and India. These two forces have yet to form completely. The attempts by the American imperialists to increase the power of India are due to the fact that India is very populous, while Japan is both populous and technologically advanced. Of course, lesser countries of South Asia and Indochina are also included in this plan. Their specific measures are intended to help India become a great power, but its body is very weak. In other words, they are trying to shift India from a policy of neutrality to the side of the American imperialists. Should something like this come to fruition, it would be a blow not only to China, but to the Soviet Union as well. When they help India, they offend Pakistan. The public opinion in Pakistan is now on the side of a change in the government policy, and now Pakistan has a good position towards us. This has yet to be achieved completely. It would take a long time to achieve it."

https://books.google.com/books?id=p026DQAAQBAJ&pg=PT43&lpg=PT43&dq=Deng+Xiaoping++%22During+the+last+two+years+it+is+clear+that+the+American+imperialists...%22+are+helping+two+forces+in+Asia:+Japan+and+India.&source=bl&ots=FChSC5HL2H&sig=ACfU3U1RgRq5sz7kNB9e2DO_iS3hWjZXTA&hl=en&ppis=_e&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjQjrS3nf7lAhUTsp4KHV7uBokQ6AEwAHoECAEQAQ#v=snippet&q=Japan%20India&f=false

Riaz Haq said...

While #US and #India held 2+2 talks in #Washington, the #Russian Naval chief was in #Pakistan and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) chief in #China. #geopolitics? #realignment? #CPEC

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/2-2-updated-with-trump-s-meeting-with-jaishankar-and-singh-and-other-developments/story-ZzeZBqXn3kgUKGbo5KN0jL.html

Riaz Haq said...

#India readying $2.6 billion deal to buy U.S. #navy helicopters ahead of #Trump's visit. India’s #military purchases from #UnitedStates have reached $17 billion since 2007 as it has pivoted away from traditional supplier #Russia. #Modi #Kashmir #Pakistan https://reut.rs/39kXe0k

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is trying to pull out all the stops for Trump’s trip in a bid to reaffirm strategic ties between the two countries, which have been buffeted by sharp differences over trade, to counter China.

India’s defense purchases from the United States have reached $17 billion since 2007 as it has pivoted away from traditional supplier Russia, looking to modernize its military and narrow the gap with China.

Modi’s cabinet committee on security is expected to clear the purchase of 24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters for the Indian navy in the next two weeks, a defense official and an industry source briefed on the matter separately told Reuters.

“It’s a government-to-government deal, it is close,” said the industry source.

To cut short lengthy negotiations between Lockheed and the Indian government, the helicopters that will be deployed on India’s warships will be bought through the U.S. foreign military sales route, under which the two governments will agree details of the deal.

Trump is expected in India around Feb 24 on his first official visit to the country, although no formal announcement has yet been made.

Both countries are separately working on a limited trade agreement ahead of the trip, after earlier imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s imports.

Trump has called India the “tariff king of the world” but the Modi government has been trying to address some of his concerns.

Trade officials have pointed to large-scale U.S. arms purchases, from surveillance planes to Apache and Chinook helicopters, as proof of India’s willingness to tighten strategic ties.

The multirole helicopters will be equipped with Hellfire missiles and are meant to help the Indian navy track submarines in the Indian Ocean, where China is expanding its presence.

Many of India’s warships are without any helicopters because of years of underfunding, and the navy had sought their acquisition as a top priority.

The government outlined only a modest rise in its 2020/21 defense spending to $73.65 billion in the budget on Feb. 1, of which a part will go toward making a down payment on the helicopter purchase, a defense official said.

“We expect a positive announcement soon on the helicopters,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of service rules. “There are limited resources, but there is an allocation.”

The U.S. State Department approved the sale of the choppers to India last year along with radars, torpedoes and 10 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles.

The clearance came after the Trump administration rolled out a new “Buy American” plan in 2018 that had relaxed restrictions on sales, saying it would bolster the American defense industry and create jobs at home.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan hoping for stronger Russian ties
Moscow is open to growing relations with Islamabad, but not at the risk of losing trade with India
By FARZAD RAMEZANI BONESH


https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/pakistan-hoping-for-stronger-russian-ties/


Russia’s importance to Pakistan
The Pakistanis have long since been diversifying their foreign policy. They seem to have reduced the full focus of foreign policy on the United States and China and have begun their plans to connect with other countries. In addition, the Pakistanis are interested in exploiting Russia’s capabilities in their strategic and extensive cooperation with China.

On the other hand, in recent years, the United States has preferred India to Pakistan. This along with tensions between Islamabad and Washington has led to widespread dissatisfaction in Pakistan.

Therefore, Pakistan is trying to use Russia to balance its foreign policies regarding India and the United States. Pakistan is also trying to use its relations with Russia to gain advantages over the United States by considering the regional and international confrontations and rivalries.

The volume of Russian-Pakistani trade has not grown significantly; in 2018 it was US$800 million. However, the two countries have plans to expand economic ties.

Pakistan has seriously taken into consideration Russia’s economic potential through port development and pipeline investment and energy transfer. Moscow also looks seriously at participating in gas pipelines and other projects related to energy and power-plant construction and electricity consumption.

According to Islamabad, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) could be linked with the Eurasian Economic Union. It will also increase the capacity of the Port of Gwadar to access the warm waters of the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, expanding relations between Russia and Pakistan.

So far, the two countries have been simplifying procedures and encouraging trade by establishing an intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation. But unlike the trade relations between Russia and India, which amount to $10 billion a year, the volume of trade is inconsistent with its real potential. In fact, the current volume of trade between the two countries compared with the overall volume of Russia’s foreign trade is very small.

-------------

Pakistan is trying to take advantage of Moscow’s concerns about the serious threat posed in Afghanistan by al-Qaeda, ISIS, the Taliban and other organizations, to strengthen diplomatic relations with Russia and bring Moscow in line with Islamabad’s views on Afghanistan.

Pakistan also supports Russia’s intent to cooperate with the Taliban and establish unofficial relations with the group. In another dimension, Pakistan as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s most important strategic partner among non-NATO members has played an important role in meeting the logistical needs of NATO forces in the past. Therefore, the nature of Moscow’s cooperation with Pakistan regarding NATO’s movements can be considered.

----------------

India will not tolerate any form of Russia-China-Pakistan axis. Therefore, Moscow is concerned that expansion of its relations with Islamabad will force India to move closer to the United States. Also, India’s market is larger than Pakistan’s. The arms trade between India and Russia still has great potential, while the deals signed between Moscow and Islamabad so far have not been very important.

In general, the relations between the two countries will see a growing trend in the fields of energy and transit of goods and energy, consultations and closer political, defense and security interactions. Therefore, Pakistan’s hopes for a strategic partnership with Russia are high, and closer relations will be accessible through calculated and step-by-step measures.

Riaz Haq said...

#Kavkaz2020: Why #Russia’s Latest #Military Drills Are a Golden Opportunity for #Pakistan! 18 nations, including #China, Pakistan & Central Asian nations are participating. #India has withdrawn from opportunity for military diplomacy. @Diplomat_APAC https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/kavkaz-2020-why-russias-latest-military-drills-are-a-golden-opportunity-for-pakistan/

Pakistan can also use the opportunity to reset relations closer to home. The scenic Wakan corridor separates Pakistan and Tajikistan and at their closest point, the two countries are a mere 10 miles apart. Despite historical and cultural ties between the two Asian nations (both were part of the Arab Umayyad and Persian Empires) and their joint participation in several infrastructure and energy projects (the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Program), Tajikistan plays host to India’s only air force base outside of its borders. The Farkhor Air Base lies around 81 miles southeast of Dushanbe and perilously close to Pakistan’s northern border with Afghanistan. Indian fighter jets taking off from the base can reach Pakistani airspace in little more than a few minutes.

Naturally, this has put a significant strain on relations with Islamabad. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are no major military ties or significant arms deals between Pakistan and Tajikistan, and if the former plays its cards right, it could use the drills as an opportunity to pull Tajikistan away from India’s military grip.

Military drills are often seen as a show of common strength between allies and a warning to others. However, for Pakistan it would be wise not to see these drills as a show of strength, but rather as an important opportunity to further its relationship with the former Soviet World. India’s recent decision to stay away from Kavkaz 2020 along with the sheer number of former Soviet states participating in them suggests a golden opportunity Pakistan cannot afford to ignore.

Riaz Haq said...

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020 Annual Report to Congress A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, as Amended



https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF



PLA Overseas Basing and Access > The PRC is seeking to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances. > Beyond its current base in Djibouti, the PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC has likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and Cambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN with access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.



------------



Space Systems Department. The SSF Space Systems Department is responsible for nearly all PLA space operations, including: space launch and support; space surveillance; space information support; space telemetry, tracking, and control; and space warfare. The Space Systems Department seeks to resolve the bureaucratic struggles that existed over the PLA space mission, as elements of the mission were previously dispersed across several national and service-subordinate organizations. The PRC officially designated space as a new domain of warfare in its 2015 defense white paper, and expects space to play an important role in future conflicts by enabling long-range precision strikes and in denying other militaries the use of overhead command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. The Space System Department operates at least eight bases, including those whose core missions are the launch, tracking R&D, and operation of the satellites vital to China’s overhead C4ISR architecture. The SSF runs tracking, telemetry, and command stations in Namibia, Pakistan, and Argentina. The SSF also has a handful of Yuan Wang space support ships to track satellite and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.



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In support of its national strategy, the PRC pursues a range of goals through OBOR to include strengthening its territorial integrity, increasing its energy security, and expanding its international influence. Given the Party views the PRC’s security and development interests as complementary, the PRC leverages OBOR to invest in projects along China’s western and southern periphery to improve stability and diminish threats along its borders. Similarly, OBOR projects associated with pipelines and port construction in Pakistan intend to decrease China’s reliance on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca.

-------------------



Beyond its current base in Djibouti, the PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC has likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and Cambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN with access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.



Riaz Haq said...

"Has China Won?" by Kishore Mahbubani


America also prides itself on being a rational society. In many ways, it is. It is heir to the great story of Western civilization with its foundation in reason and logic. The scientific revolution that boosted Western civilization enabled its domination. With the advantage of a vibrant market, the strongest universities, and the most highly educated elites in the world, America assumed that no society could compete with it in the critical domains of economic and military strengths, intellectual ingenuity, and moral supremacy. Americans also assumed that since they had the most open society on the planet, the various mechanisms of this open society would alert America if it took a major wrong turn. Sadly, this has not happened in recent decades. Most Americans are unaware that the average income of the bottom 50 percent of their population has declined over a thirty-year period.* This didn’t happen because of one wrong turn. As this book will document, America has turned away significantly from some of the key principles that defined social justice in American society. America’s greatest political and moral philosopher in recent times has been John Rawls. Through his works, he tried to distill the wisdom of the philosophy of the great European philosophers, which America’s Founding Fathers learned from. Unfortunately, many Americans are unaware how much they have turned away from some key founding principles. Similarly, few Americans are aware that the world has changed in many critical dimensions since the heyday of American power in the 1950s. In 1950, in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, America had 27.3 percent of the world’s GDP, while China had only 4.5 percent.* At the end of the Cold War, in 1990, a triumphant moment, America had 20.6 percent and China had 3.86 percent. As of 2018, it has 15 percent, less than China’s (18.6 percent).* In one crucial respect, America has already become number two. Few Americans are aware of this; fewer still have considered what it means. Even more critically, the global context in which the US-China rivalry will be played out will be very different from that of the Cold War. The world has become a more complex place. It is clear that America remaining the preeminent world power, while not impossible, is going to become more and more unlikely unless America adapts to the new world that has emerged.


Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? (pp. 9-10). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition

Riaz Haq said...

China’s export machine comes roaring back to life as #COVID threat wanes. While overall volumes have fallen, #China’s share of global #exports leapt to more than 18% in April, before falling back slightly to 15.9% in July. #economy
https://www.ft.com/content/6f65b053-af11-4fee-a0c6-43adbe3f4e00 via @financialtimes



The same coronavirus that hammered global trade has increased the appetite for goods made in China, such as electronics products and medical equipment. That boom in exports is supporting the country’s early recovery as other big economies flounder, raising the question of whether China’s recent trade advantage will outlive the pandemic.

Data from Oxford Economics and Haver Analytics show that while overall volumes have fallen, China’s share of global exports compared with other large exporters leapt to more than 18 per cent in April, before falling back slightly to 15.9 per cent in July.

“It is too early to write off China’s role in global supply chains,” said Louis Kuijs from Oxford Economics, who pointed to the “fundamental competitiveness” of Asian economies.


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He added that the market share effect was in part temporary but suggested that “there will be some permanent shift . . . and that should benefit certain countries".

Partly a function of declining activity elsewhere, China’s recent success is also a result of a wider resilience of exports in east Asia, fuelled by a shift in global demand towards products suited to a world working from home.

Taiwan’s exports, the majority of which are electronics components and IT and communications products, reached their highest ever monthly level in August. In South Korea, exports of information and communications technology products rose year on year in each of the past three months after a sharp fall in April.


Such economies have benefited from much lower reported coronavirus infections since the second quarter. Lockdown restrictions in China were already being eased in April, when other countries were plunged into chaos from the spread of the pandemic. New cases have remained lower in China, Taiwan and South Korea than in the US and Europe.

That paved the way for enough manufacturing activity to take advantage of a shift in global consumption patterns. In addition to the kind of soaring exports of electronics also seen in Taiwan and South Korea, Chinese exports of medical equipment leapt in the first seven months of the year. China’s trade surplus with the US in August reached $34.2bn, its highest level since November 2018.

Trinh Nguyen, senior economist at Natixis, points to a “bifurcation of performance globally”. That is reflected in South Korea, where electronics and medical consumer products have performed well but “heavy industries” such as shipping and autos have struggled. In Japan, exports fell year on year for the sixth straight month in August.

Recommended
Trade Secrets
Medical equipment boost for Chinese exports could be shortlived Premium

In China, the state has provided support for manufacturing in a way that Mr Kuijs said was “unimaginable” in the US. But he added that the export response in China was also down to “entrepreneurial and agile” companies. “Virtually none of these companies is state owned,” he said.

While overall exports have been able to adapt to changing demand, the mood in its manufacturing hubs is mixed.

Kexin Chen, a sales manager of a toy factory in Guangdong, said export orders from Europe were improving but admitted that her business was still struggling. “We are counting on [orders for] Black Friday and Christmas,” she said.

Elsewhere, there are signs that aspects of the east Asian export boom may be driven by short-term fears over supply chains. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, told investors last month that technology companies were building larger stockpiles because they were worried new Covid-19 infection waves could disrupt supply chains again.


Riaz Haq said...

Kishore Mahbubani on China; Tillerson (via Bob Woodward) on Russia

Tillerson added, “Putin feels like we treat Russia like a banana republic.” The year before, Tillerson said he had been tooling around the Black Sea on Putin’s yacht. “And he said to me, ‘You need to remember we’re a nuclear power. As powerful as you. You Americans think you won the Cold War. You did not win the Cold War. We never fought that war. We could have, but we didn’t.’ And that put chills up my spine.” There is a significant opportunity here, Tillerson said. “When Putin said the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century, it wasn’t because he loved communism. It was because Russia’s stature had been destroyed. “Anybody who tries to think about Russia in terms of the Soviet era doesn’t know a thing about Russia. The seventy years of Soviet rule was a speed bump in Russian history and it had no lasting effect. “If you want to understand Russia, they haven’t changed much culturally in 1,000 years. They are the most fatalistic people on the face of the earth, which is why they’re willing to live under lousy leaders. If you ask them about it, they’d say they don’t like it, but they’d say ‘Das Russia’—‘That’s Russia.’ They’d shrug their shoulders. I would talk to my Russian employees about it. Only one time did Russians rise up in revolution. And that didn’t turn out so well. So they look back on that and they say, Don’t do that again.”


Woodward, Bob. Rage (pp. 9-10). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.

For over two hundred years, Western civilization vastly outperformed the rest of the world, allowing it to overturn the historical precedent; from the year 1 to 1820, China and India were always the largest civilizations in terms of economic strength. The past two hundred years have therefore been an aberration. One reason the West can no longer dominate the world is that the rest have learned so much from the West. They have imbibed many Western best practices in economics, politics, science, and technology. As a result, while many parts of Western civilization (especially Europe) seem exhausted, lacking drive and energy, other civilizations are just getting revved up. In this respect, human civilizations are like other living organisms. They have life cycles. Chinese civilization has had many ups and downs. It should be no surprise that it is now returning in strength.

Having survived over two thousand years, China has developed strong civilizational sinews. Professor Wang Gungwu has observed that while the world has had many ancient civilizations, the only ancient civilization to fall down four times and rise again is China. As a civilization, China is remarkably resilient. The Chinese people are also remarkably talented. As the Chinese look back over two thousand years, they are acutely aware that the past thirty years under CCP rule have been the best thirty years that Chinese civilization has experienced since China was united by Qin Shi Huang in 221 BCE. For most of the past two thousand years, the large pool of brainpower available in the Chinese population was not developed under the imperial Chinese system. During the past thirty years, for the first time in Chinese history, it has been tapped on a massive scale. Cultural confidence, which the Chinese have had for centuries, combined with what China has learned from the West have given Chinese civilization a special vigor today. A Chinese American psychology researcher from Stanford University, Jean Fan, has observed after visiting China in 2019 that “China is changing in a deep and visceral way, and it is changing fast, in a way that is almost incomprehensible without seeing it in person. In contrast to America’s stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept, and morale are being transformed at a rapid pace—mostly for the better.”*

Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? (pp. 11-12). PublicAffairs. Kindle Edition.

Riaz Haq said...

Would #Pakistan buy advanced S-400 air defense system if #India backs out under #US pressure? #Russian FM Sergei Lavrov has said India’s entry in US-led QUAD is ‘devious’ as it has every potential to undermine #NewDelhi’s relationship with #Moscow.- https://eurasiantimes.com/if-us-presses-india-out-of-russian-s-400-deal-pakistan-could-be-its-prospective-buyer/

Notwithstanding the reservations of its old friend, India has gone ahead with QUAD, signing the BECA agreement with the US, to take on China even if at the antagonism of Russia.

Russia knows the long-term implications of India’s entry into the QUAD, and accordingly, the first sign of its disenchantment came when it canceled the Indo-Russian summit on December 23, 2020, for the first time in two decades.

The whole situation now, obviously, boils down to India’s efforts to procure the best defense system, S-400, from Russia which will definitely invite ire from Washington.

Everything is now moving on the expected lines as on January 5, 2021, The Indian Express reported that ‘India’s S-400 deal with Russia may trigger US sanctions’. India had in 2018 gone ahead with the signing of a $5 billion deal with Russia despite the US President Trump’s warning.

According to the report, ‘The (US) Congressional Research Service (CRS) – an independent and bipartisan research wing of US Congress – in its latest report to Congress, said India is ‘eager for more technology-sharing and co-production initiatives, while the United States urges more reforms in India’s defense offsets policy and higher Foreign Direct Investment caps in its defense sector’.”

The CRS report went on to warn that “India’s multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defense system may trigger US sanctions on India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act”.

What is S-400?
‘The S-400 is an integrated air defense system featuring radars, command and control equipment, and four types of surface-to-air missiles. The four types of missiles used by the S-400 have ranges varying from 40km to 400km and can shoot down aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

The Indian Air Force has repeatedly referred to the S-400 as being a game-changer, as reported by The Week on June 13, 2020.

It is not clear what difficulties the deal will bring for India with the country caught between a rock and a hard place in choosing between the best air defense system in the world, the S-400, and its crucial military partner, the US. Recently, ruling Party BJP MP Subramanian Swamy had openly sought ‘not to buy’ S-400 as it is made of ‘Chinese electronics’, creating more troubles for the government.

Russia has already spelled its reservations as it considers India to have become a component of the QUAD strategy, which aims to pin down China, something apparently unacceptable for Russia. India has sought an early delivery of the air defense system and Russia, understandably, is slated to deliver it in December 2021, but owing to the growing chasm between the two countries, the delivery might get further delayed.

Riaz Haq said...

#US declassifies its strategy to use “a strong India” to “counterbalance China". It assumes India is already able to “counter border provocations by China.” It was developed in 2018, well before #China's PLA routed #India's military in #Ladakh. @TRTWorld https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/us-declassifies-its-strategy-to-use-india-against-china-43296

India features prominently in US strategic plans for the region. Specifically, the strategy seeks to build a “quadrilateral security framework with India, Japan, Australia” and the US. The four-cornered strategy wants to use “a strong India” to “counterbalance China.”

This comes after pointing out that India is already able to “counter border provocations by China.” It should be noted that the strategy was passed before India-China skirmishes in the Doklam region.

Interestingly, the strategy makes no mention of Pakistan at all in spite of its close ties to China. It further defines a key need to “accelerate India’s rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security and Major Defense Partner; solidify an enduring strategic partnership with India underpinned by a strong Indian military able to effectively collaborate with the United States and our partners in the region to address shared interests.”

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan among 18 non NATO allies of the United States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally

Nations named as major non-NATO allies are eligible for the following benefits:[23]

entry into cooperative research and development projects with the Department of Defense (DoD) on a shared-cost basis
participation in certain counter-terrorism initiatives
purchase of depleted uranium anti-tank rounds
priority delivery of military surplus (ranging from rations to ships)
possession of War Reserve Stocks of DoD-owned equipment that are kept outside of American military bases
loans of equipment and materials for cooperative research and development projects and evaluations
permission to use American financing for the purchase or lease of certain defense equipment
reciprocal training
expedited export processing of space technology
permission for the country's corporations to bid on certain DoD contracts for the repair and maintenance of military equipment outside the United States


The following countries have been designated as major non-NATO allies of the United States (in order of their appointment):[28][29][30]


South Korean soldiers and a U.S. Army officer monitor the Korean Demilitarized Zone in 2008.

Australian Defence Force, New Zealand Defence Force and US Army personnel conduct medevac training exercises at Camp Taji, Iraq, in 2018.
Named by Ronald Reagan
Australia (1987)[1]
Egypt (1987)[1]
Israel (1987)[1]
Japan (1987)[1]
South Korea (1987)[1]
Named by Bill Clinton
Jordan (1996)[31]
New Zealand (1997)[3]
Argentina (1998)[32]
Named by George W. Bush
Bahrain (2002)[33]
Philippines (2003)[34]
Taiwan (de facto) (2003)[6]
Thailand (2003)[35]
Kuwait (2004)[36]
Morocco (2004)[37]
Pakistan (2004)[38]
Named by Barack Obama
Afghanistan (2012)[39][40]
Tunisia (2015)[41]
Named by Donald Trump
Brazil (2019)[42][43]

Riaz Haq said...

India Romances the West
In a deepening geopolitical shift, New Delhi is inching closer on many fronts.

By C. Raja Mohan


https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/19/india-modi-west-quad-china-biden-non-aligned/


In affirming that the “Quad has come of age” at the first-ever summit of the Quadrilateral Dialogue with the United States, Japan, and Australia last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sent an unmistakable signal that India is no longer reluctant to work with the West in the global arena, including in the security domain. The country’s new readiness to participate in Western forums marks a decisive turn in independent India’s world view. That view was long defined by the idea of nonalignment and its later avatar, strategic autonomy—both of which were about standing apart from, if not against, post-World-War-II Western alliances. But today—driven by shifting balance of power in Asia, India’s clear-eyed view of its national interest, and the successful efforts of consecutive U.S. presidents—India is taking increasingly significant steps toward the West.

The Quad is not the only Western institution with which India might soon be associated. New Delhi is set to engage with a wider range of Western forums in the days ahead, including the G-7 and the Five Eyes. Britain has invited India to participate in the G-7 meeting in London this summer, along with other non-members Australia and South Korea. Although India has been invited to G-7 outreach meetings—a level or two below the summits—for a number of years, the London meeting is widely expected to be a testing ground for the creation of a “Democracy Group of Ten,” or D-10.

In Washington today, there are multiple ideas for U.S.-led technology coalitions to reduce the current Western dependence on China. Two initiatives unveiled at the Quad summit—the working group on critical technologies, and the vaccine initiative to supply Southeast Asia—underline the prospects for an Indian role in the trusted technology supply chains of the United States and its partners.

Along with Japan, India also joined a meeting of the Five Eyes—the intelligence-sharing alliance between the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand— in October 2020 to discuss ways to give law enforcement agencies access to encrypted communications on platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram. Five Eyes is a tightly knit alliance, and it is unlikely India will be a member any time soon. But it is very much possible to imagine greater consultations between the Five Eyes and the Indian intelligence establishment.

To be sure, India’s engagement with Western institutions is not entirely new. India joined the British-led Commonwealth in 1947, but only after India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, made sure the forum was stripped of any security role in the postwar world. Refusing to join military alliances was a key plank of India’s policy of non-alignment.

Many concluded in the 1970s that anti-Americanism was part of India’s genetic code.

Nehru turned to the United States when his policy of befriending China and supporting its sensitivities collapsed by the end of the 1950s. Facing reverses in a military conflict with China on the long and contested border in 1962, Nehru sought massive defense assistance from U.S. President John Kennedy. With the deaths of both Kennedy and Nehru soon after, the prospects for strategic cooperation between New Delhi and Washington receded quickly.

The 1970s saw India drift away from the West on three levels. On the East-West axis, it drew closer to the Soviet Union. On the North-South axis, it became the champion of the Third World. This was reinforced by the sharply leftward turn of India’s domestic politics and a deliberate severing of commercial cooperation with the West.

Riaz Haq said...

#China is betting that #West is in irreversible decline. #Chinese leaders see their moment, and are seizing it. Deaths of so many #Americans and #Europeans from covid-19, should make Western governments ashamed to question China’s record on #HumanRights https://www.economist.com/china/2021/04/03/china-is-betting-that-the-west-is-in-irreversible-decline


China’s foreign ministry declares that horrors such as the Atlantic slave trade, colonialism and the Holocaust, as well as the deaths of so many Americans and Europeans from covid-19, should make Western governments ashamed to question China’s record on human rights. Most recently Chinese diplomats and propagandists have denounced as “lies and disinformation” reports that coerced labour is used to pick or process cotton in Xinjiang. They have praised fellow citizens for boycotting foreign brands that decline to use cotton from that region. Still others have sought to prove their zeal by hurling Maoist-era abuse. A Chinese consul-general tweeted that Canada’s prime minister was “a running dog of the us”.

-------------


In reality Chinese leaders, if their own words and writings are any guide, think that assertiveness is rational. First, they believe that China has numbers on its side as a world order emerges in which developing countries demand, and are accorded, more sway. At the un most member states reliably support China, as an irreplaceable source of loans, infrastructure and affordable technology, including surveillance kit for nervous autocracies. Second, China is increasingly sure that America is in long-term, irreversible decline, even if other Western countries are too arrogant and racist to accept that “the East is rising, and the West is in decline”, as Chinese leaders put it. China is now applying calculated doses of pain to shock Westerners into realising that the old, American-led order is ending.

China’s rulers are majoritarians. Their hold on power involves convincing most citizens that prosperity, security and national strength require iron-fisted, one-party rule. They unblushingly put the interests of the many over those of the few, whether those individuals are farmers evicted to build a dam, ethnic minorities re-educated to become biddable workers, or dissenters who must be silenced. China is a hard challenge for liberal democrats precisely because its tyranny in the name of the majority is backed by lots of Chinese, albeit at a terrible cost to outliers and minorities. Today, Chinese ideas about global governance sound like a majoritarian world order. Ruan Zongze, a scholar at the foreign ministry’s Xi Jinping Diplomatic Research Centre, explained the official line in a press briefing. He denied that China wanted to export its values. But he outlined a vision of multilateralism-by-majority that—by according no special legitimacy to liberal norms—would be a safe haven for Chinese autocracy. Mr Ruan scorned governments that “use the pretext of democracy to form alliances”. He called that “fake multilateralism”, adding that developing countries need not endure finger-pointing from a West that does not speak for the world. As engines of global growth, China and other emerging economies should have a bigger say, he declared. “Those who represent future trends should be the leading force.”

The majority of the tyrannies
As one European diplomat sees it, at least part of China’s establishment is convinced that the liberal order established after 1945—built around universal human rights, norms and rules that bind the strong and weak alike—is an obstacle to China’s rise. Such revisionists are “convinced that China will not achieve its goals if it plays by the rules”, he says.

Riaz Haq said...

Countering QUAD: Is There A China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Nexus In The Making?

By Rushali Saha,Research Associate at the Centre for Airpower Studies, New Delhi, India

https://eurasiantimes.com/countering-quad-is-there-a-china-russia-pakistan-strategic-nexus-in-the-making/


Amid India-US bonhomie over QUAD, it’s interesting to watch how China is maintaining its “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan and an “unbreakable” bond with Russia.

Although it is too soon to prove the existence of a Russia-China-Pakistan ‘axis’, the growing strategic convergence between the three is a significant geopolitical development, especially given the possible formation of power blocs given the growing strategic competition between the US and China.

This convergence will most likely play out in the Indo-Pacific—the epicenter of US-China competition. The rechristening of Asia-Pacific as Indo-Pacific is largely a result of growing convergence among the four QUAD countries — India, the United States, Japan, and Australia.

China’s Opposition To QUAD
China has been vocal about its opposition to this “four-side mechanism” as it adheres to the “Cold War mentality.” Both Russia and Pakistan have displayed their ‘pro-China’ tilt on the QUAD, albeit the Russian vision for the region as a whole is more complex.

Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at the Raisina Dialogue held in New Delhi outlined how despite supporting India’s inclusive Indo-Pacific vision, Moscow is hostile towards QUAD, essentially parroting Chinese concerns about containment.

For Pakistan, America’s growing defense relations and professed commitment to bolster India’s capabilities to counter China, have further strained relations between Islamabad and Washington.

Viewing America’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ as a threat, Pakistan is seeking deeper security cooperation with Russia and China through joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, exchanging naval officials, and deepening military cooperation.

Pakistan’s PNS Zulfikar frigate is all ready to participate in the Arabian Monsoon exercise with Russian ships in the Arabian Sea after the two navies participated in the Pakistan-hosted biannual maritime multinational naval exercise Aman-2021, which included China and 45 other countries.

Beyond symbolism, these strategic moves deserve greater attention as they come at a time when Pakistan and Russia are being pushed closer together over a negotiated political settlement over Afghanistan, while cracks in the Russia-India-China strategic triangle are solidifying.
Russia-Pakistan-China Convergence
Beyond their shared criticism of QUAD, there are other areas where the strategic objectives of the three countries converge. Despite the Chinese projection of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a purely ‘economic’ project, few would deny the strong geopolitical implications it would have—particularly in the Indian Ocean.

Gwadar Port, in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, handed over to the Chinese in 2013 for 40 years provides Beijing direct access to the Indian Ocean through the Arabian Sea. This would extend Chinese power projection well into the Western Indian Ocean, effectively counterbalancing US and Indian naval capabilities.


According to an article published by a leading Russian think tank, the “only explanation” for Russia deferring participation in CPEC is “respect for India’s sensitivities” given New Delhi’s sovereignty concerns over the nature of the project.

However, in view of the growing ties between Islamabad and Kremlin exemplified in Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Pakistan— the first by a Russian foreign minister in 9 years—has raised apprehensions about whether India can continue to deter Russian participation in the project.


Riaz Haq said...

Countering QUAD: Is There A China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Nexus In The Making?

By Rushali Saha,Research Associate at the Centre for Airpower Studies, New Delhi, India

https://eurasiantimes.com/countering-quad-is-there-a-china-russia-pakistan-strategic-nexus-in-the-making/


Russia and China’s increasing presence in the resource-rich Western Indian Ocean can be a game-changer in the ongoing geopolitical contest in the region.

Despite being a late entrant, Russia has significantly stepped up its presence in the region, striking a 25-year agreement with Sudan to establish a naval base in the country which will station four Russian ships and up to 300 personnel, although reports suggest Sudan is currently reviewing the deal.

China, which has already penetrated deep into the Indian Ocean through strengthening maritime ties with East African countries, is independently strengthening maritime cooperation with both Russia and Pakistan.

It is against this backdrop that Iran, Russia, and China held their first-ever joint naval exercise in the Northern Indian Ocean in 2019, where Iran reportedly also invited the Pakistani Navy.

Growing Military Ties
Meanwhile, the latest iteration of bilateral naval exercise between China and Pakistan—Sea Guardians 2020—reflects the growing complexity and expanding the scope of their bilateral maritime partnership.

With Pakistan and Russia committing to increasing the frequency of their joint military drills and maritime exercises to fight terrorism and piracy, the possibility of a Russia-China-Pakistan naval exercise, may not be so remote anymore.

Arguably the strongest glue holding the three countries together is a common aversion to the ‘western construct’ of a ‘rules-based order.’

Against the ‘rules-based order’, China and Russia have been parallelly pushing the narrative on ‘global governance’—premised on the centrality of United Nations—as reflected in the Lavrov-Wang joint statement following the Russian foreign minister’s visit to China earlier this year.

Meanwhile, China and Pakistan have strengthened cooperation in multilateral forums such as the United Nations, evident from the recently released joint statement where the two countries pledged to back each other’s “core interests” and “firmly safeguard multilateralism.”

In October last year, Pakistan—on behalf of 55 countries, which included Russia—made a joint statement at the UN “opposing interference in China’s internal affairs under the pretext of Hong Kong.”

The leaders of the US, Japan, India, and Australia during the first-ever QUAD summit in March this year. (via Twitter)
In the context of the evolving geo-strategic construct of Indo-Pacific and rapidly fluctuating power relations, each country will act in a manner that maximizes its national interest.

The QUAD countries are working together to defend a regional order which was largely constructed by the United States, from rivals, namely China.

China’s careful critique of Western intentions in the Indo-Pacific and representation of QUAD as an “Indo-Pacific NATO” gels well with Russian interests.

The emerging disconnect in US-Pakistan relations has paralleled closer Indo-American ties which have effectively pushed Pakistan closer to China and Russia, binding the three together by shared criticism of what they see as ‘Western hegemony.’



In the current era of strategic uncertainty, the deepening relations between Russia, Pakistan, and China is a major challenge for the QUAD countries, although they are gaining recognition for their agenda from regional and extra-regional actors.

Going forward, one of the first steps QUAD must take is to convince actors, especially Southeast Asian countries, that QUAD is indeed not an ‘Asian NATO.’ To do this, it must begin by robustly defining what it means by a ‘rules-based order’ and clarify that it is not at variance with multilateralism or ASEAN centrality.

Riaz Haq said...

#JFK hosted Pak President Ayub Khan at Mount Vernon when #Pakistan was an important partner for #UnitedStates in 1961. In 1962, #Kennedy asked Ayub to stay out of #India-#China war. In 2021, #Biden has yet to speak with #ImranKhan https://brook.gs/3AuERV8 via @BrookingsInst

It was First Lady Jacqueline Bouvier Kennedy who conceived of the summit at Mount Vernon between her husband John F. Kennedy and Pakistani President Mohammad Ayub Khan. She was inspired by the Kennedys’ visit to the Habsburgs’ Schönbrunn Palace in Vienna earlier in the year. She quietly approached the managers of the Mount Vernon estate, who eagerly agreed to host the Pakistanis. She also arranged for the jewelry store Tiffany’s to provide the flowers and decorations for the dinner.

Pakistan was an important partner for the United States in 1961, linked by treaty to the containment of the Soviet Union and China. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) flew U2 surveillance flights from Pakistani bases to monitor China’s emerging nuclear arsenal. The CIA also secretly supported Tibetan rebels fighting for independence from an airbase in what was then East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

Ayub Khan had just suspended Pakistani cooperation with the Tibet covert operation because Kennedy had promised India a large economic aid package and signaled that a closer relationship with New Delhi was coming. The Pakistani dictator was against a closer American relationship with India. Shutting down the Tibet operation was a quiet behind the scenes way of expressing unease with Kennedy’s tilting towards India.

At the request of Director of Central Intelligence Allen Dulles, JFK took Ayub Khan for a private one-on-one stroll in the mansion garden and asked the Pakistani leader to reopen the airbase for secret resupply flights to the rebels in Tibet. Ayub Khan agreed but asked for a commitment that no American military equipment would ever be provided to India without prior consultation with Pakistan. Kennedy agreed.

The dinner was a great success. The best and brightest of the new administration were there. The main course was poulet chasseur made in the White House and then reheated in a portable army kitchen in the grounds of the mansion.

The next spring Mrs. Kennedy traveled to India and Pakistan. It was the first trip abroad alone by a first lady in the television age. She dazzled viewers everywhere, including back home.

-------------------

The 1962 crisis set in train the dynamics that would lead decades later to the geopolitics of today with the United States aligned with India and Pakistan aligned with China. It helped spark the nuclear arms race in Asia. The crisis resonates throughout Asia today.

Today Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, with one of the most active nuclear weapons programs. It is China’s closest and most important ally. Relations with India remain tense. Most immediately, Pakistan is supporting the Taliban offensive designed to topple the Afghan government in Kabul after the American withdrawal, though it publicly says it wants a political solution, not a Taliban military victory. The Pakistani army gives the Taliban safe haven, arms, training, and logistical support which are crucial to their ability to operate.

President Joe Biden has yet to talk to Prime Minister Imran Khan once since taking office. Imran Khan has recently spoken publicly about Islamabad’s close ties to Beijing, praising it as a role model and defending its oppression of its Uyghur Muslims. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has spoken with Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa more than once but has yet to meet with him in person. For the Afghan withdrawal, it is probably too late to change Pakistan’s policy to back the Taliban. The puzzle is why the administration is not engaging more actively with this important country.

Riaz Haq said...

In Submarine Deal With Australia, U.S. Counters China but Enrages France
The reaction signals a widening rift among Western allies over China. French officials accused President Biden of acting like his predecessor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/world/europe/france-australia-uk-us-submarines.html


Underscoring its fury, France canceled a gala scheduled for Friday at its embassy in Washington to mark the 240th anniversary of a Revolutionary War battle.

“This looks like a new geopolitical order without binding alliances,” said Nicole Bacharan, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris. “To confront China, the United States appears to have chosen a different alliance, with the Anglo-Saxon world separate from France.” She predicted a “very hard” period in the old friendship between Paris and Washington.

The deal also seemed to be a pivot point in relations with China, which reacted angrily. The Biden administration appears to be upping the ante with Beijing by providing a Pacific ally with submarines that are much harder to detect than conventional ones, much as medium-range Pershing II missiles were deployed in Europe in the 1980s to deter the Soviet Union.

A statement from Mr. Le Drian and Florence Parly, France’s Armed Forces minister, called “the American choice to exclude a European ally and partner such as France” a regrettable decision that “shows a lack of coherence.”

The Australian vessels would have nuclear reactors for propulsion, but not nuclear weapons.

France and the rest of the European Union are intent on avoiding a direct confrontation with China, as they underscored on Thursday in a policy paper titled the “E.U. Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” whose release was planned before the fracas.

It said the bloc would pursue “multifaceted engagement with China,” cooperating on issues of common interest while “pushing back where fundamental disagreement exists with China, such as on human rights.”

The degree of French anger recalled the acrimonious rift in 2003 between Paris and Washington over the Iraq war and involved language not heard since then.

“This is not done between allies,” Mr. Le Drian said. His comparison of Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump appeared certain to be taken in the White House as a serious insult.

And France said it had not been consulted on the deal. “We heard about it yesterday,” Ms. Parly told RFI radio.

The Biden administration said it had not told French leaders beforehand, because it was clear that they would be unhappy with the deal.

The administration decided that it was up to Australia to choose whether to tell Paris, said a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to address the matter publicly. But he allowed that the French had a right to be annoyed, and that the decision was likely to fuel France’s desire for a European Union military capability independent of the United States.

Riaz Haq said...

#US Undersecretary Victoria Nuland: ‘#Russia-#China axis not good for #India… US can help (India) with defense supplies’. #Modi #BJP #Nuland #Ukraine https://indianexpress.com/article/india/russia-china-axis-not-good-for-india-us-can-help-with-defence-supplies-7831894/ via @IndianExpress

FRAMING the Russia-China alliance over Ukraine as a debate between democracies and autocracies, visiting US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland told The Indian Express Wednesday that US was ready to help India move away from dependence on Russia for defence supplies. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

On the Russia-Ukraine crisis, how do you read India’s statements?

We had very broad and deep conversations (Nuland met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and her counterpart Harsh Vardhan Shringla) about what’s in this war. Unfortunately, Indian students got trapped, and they were able to get out, but unfortunately one Indian lost his life which was very tragic.

The Chinese Vice Foreign minister drew a parallel between NATO’s eastward expansion in Europe and the Quad in the Indo-Pacific.

Obviously, China is trying to seek an advantage for itself in this conflict, as it always does. But again, what threatens China most: open and free societies who offer their people a different way of life than the Communist party of China offers for Chinese people.

So NATO is a defensive alliance, of voluntary alignment of countries who asked to join together to defend themselves. In the Indo-Pacific strategy, we are talking about the great democracies of the region, working together to protect themselves and to advance prosperity, and free and open commerce and navigation and all of these things. All of the things that the autocrats want to change, want to threaten. So I’m not surprised that the Chinese are trying to draw parallels here. Because, in both cases, we’re talking about trying to keep the world free for democratic governance.

Who is a bigger threat — Russia or China?

The worry now is that they intensify their efforts together. They learn from each other, whether it is how to coerce a neighbour economically, or militarily. Whether it’s about how to go in the UN system and undercut the rules of the road that the US, India and other democracies have built to favour freedom. Whether it is that they let each other off the hook by financing each other’s militaries.

All of these things are worrying. But I also think that this is an energizing moment for the democracies, because now we see very clearly what we are up against.

Riaz Haq said...

Arif Rafiq
@ArifCRafiq
The chairman of an Indian think tank affiliated with the RSS — the parent group of India’s ruling BJP — floats the possibility of an India-Russia-China axis:

https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/1509880440932478982?s=20&t=Oj7AI6oU0WniCCACByd4Qg
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Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules
S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF



https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/march/28/ukraine-crisis-the-war-that-is-changing-relations-rules

The Ukraine war seems to have dented the US global leadership in more than one sense. First, it has delivered the most telling message that the US can’t protect its own protégé. Next, that it had to solicit a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping (XJP) to get China to the US side or to end the war itself, exposed its weakness. Donald Trump would perhaps have handled Russia and Ukraine differently, not allowed China to be the proverbial monkey between two tigers, the US and Russia.

Anyway the two-hour talk Biden had with XJP did not go well for him. XJP reportedly snubbed Biden saying “those who tied the bell to the tiger must untie it,” clearly blaming NATO for the war. XJP used the talk to advance China’s claim to be equal to the US, saying they should jointly shoulder “international responsibilities” for world peace and tranquility. According to a Chinese report, XJP seems to have said that one hand cannot clap, suggesting that NATO should have a dialogue with Putin and address his security concerns, implying NATO expansion as the issue. XJP, of course, has also spoken in support of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. He seems to have insisted on bringing the China-US ties under turmoil over a host of issues, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, on “right track” — something completely beyond the agenda of Biden on that day.

The US media had reported that Biden threatened XJP. On the contrary, he seems to have got snubbed. Biden’s effort to wean China away from Russia has failed at the minimum. If this is what the US got from China, The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE declined calls from Biden to ease oil prices unless the US supported them in Yemen and elsewhere. Arab allies of the US have refused to toe its line. Israel did criticise the Russian attack but its stand was so nuanced as not to take the side of the West. Turkey’s position is identical to Israel’s.

Al-Jazeera even sees a strong alliance between Russia and UAE. Another collateral setback to the US is Syrian president Assad’s visit (after 11 years) to UAE about which the US could only lament that it was “disappointed and troubled”. Syria and Russia are close. On top of it all, Saudi Arabia, whose oil has been priced in US dollars for five decades, is considering pricing it in Yuan for sales to China. One more important development. The Chinese foreign minister was invited for the first time to the meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. These are not ordinary developments. The Ukraine war has undoubtedly eroded US influence over even its allies.

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China and India have had border clashes for the last two years. Surprisingly, its foreign minister Wang Yi is visiting Delhi on March 25 — a significant development. India’s independent position on Ukraine is itself a message to China that India would withstand US pressure. If it can lead to some trust and understanding between China and India on the borders, that can pave the way for an informal Russia-China-India axis for future. Naftali Bennett, the Prime Minister of Israel, a US ally, is making a four-day long visit to India in April first week at the invitation of “his friend” Indian Prime Minister Modi. India is boldly going ahead with the purchase of Russian oil amid US sanctions on Russia.



Riaz Haq said...

Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules
S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF



https://www.vifindia.org/article/2022/march/28/ukraine-crisis-the-war-that-is-changing-relations-rules

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Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it. Having been pushed into the war, Ukraine does not know how to come out of it. It accuses its adversary Russia saying it is an invader and charges that its friends are betrayers. The UN Security Council keeps on meeting without any result. The global TV network for which the war is a reality show, a boon, keeps demonising Russia and valourising Ukraine. What the desperate Ukraine needs is a ceasefire. It is running from pillar to post — from India to Turkey to France, to Israel, to Japan — pleading with them to talk to Putin for a ceasefire. Everyone is talking to everyone else.


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Though India has not voted for Russia, it has taken a firm position on the discovery of a bio-weapon facility in Ukraine funded by America. And America, despite loosely calling India shaky on the Ukraine war, has not applied the CAATSA law to stop the sale of Russia’s missile system to India. Undoubtedly, the Ukraine war diplomacy has shown India’s rising stature. The greatest tribute to India’s policies came from the most unlikely of quarters, Pakistan. Praising India’s foreign policy as free and independent, Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “India is allied with America and is part of the Quad alliance and yet it is neutral on Ukraine, imports oil from Russia despite US sanctions, because its policy is oriented to the betterment of its own people.”

Shift away from the dollar?
The war’s collateral impact may be on the US dollar and the global financial order itself. With the dollar-based globalisation already under stress, the role of the greenback in the global financial system may decline. The dollar power enabled dominance of the financial economy over the real economy, particularly the commodity economy. The US sanctions which are bound to affect the Russian oil sale, may also affect the US dollar.

The strength of the US dollar depended, said two Harvard economists in 2006, not on the laws of economics but on the laws of physics, which said a dark matter sustains the universe. The dark matter which sustains the dollar value, they said, is the insurance that the US system and geopolitical power provides to the dollar. That insurance is what is under stress since 2008. With the rise of Asia and China, the US dollar cannot be said to continue to have the same insurance value. The share of USD in the global forex reserves has touched a 25-year low of about 59 percent.

If important nations shift to their own fiat currency based trade like the Rupee-Ruble arrangement between India and Russia and if an alternative to SWIFT can be found, the move away from dollar can accelerate. For instance, if India and China begin paying for their trade in their fiat currencies rated to the US dollar and at the year-end pay the net in terms of the dollar, the overall demand for the dollar will contract rapidly. It is the demand for the dollar that sustains its value. These kinds of developments post the Ukraine war can have a far reaching impact.

To end, in just weeks the needless Ukraine eruption has disrupted the world as if forever. Thanks to it, the post-cold war world already stands on its head — disrupting old relations, making new ones, undermining existing power centres, creating new, multiple influence centres. Its impact will keep unfolding for a long time.

Riaz Haq said...

Chinese views of the world at the time of the Russia-Ukraine war Evidence from a March 2022 public opinion survey

https://ceias.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/CN-poll-report-final_may11.pdf

The Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS) is an independent think tank based in Bratislava (Slovakia), and with branches in Olomouc (Czech Republic), and Vienna (Austria).
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Russia turned out to be the most positively perceived country by the Chinese respondents (see Figure 1). Asked to rate their feelings toward 25 countries on a scale of 0-100, 79.8% of respondents said they viewed Russia in a positive light while only 12% held negative views. It seems clear, then, that Chinese positive attitudes towards Russia were not disturbed by the Russia-Ukraine war. Quite the opposite, as Figure 2 shows, almost 80% of respondents reported that their views of Russia had improved over the last three years.8 This finding is broadly consistent with past survey results between 2008 and 2015, which found only around 50% of Chinese respondents held positive views of Russia.

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The other very positively perceived countries among Chinese respondents were Pakistan (73%), Singapore (66%), North Korea (62%), and Germany (61%). In turn, other very negatively perceived countries included India (56%), Japan (54%), Vietnam (48%), South Korea (47%) and Ukraine (46%). 15 Few if any previously published polls have asked Chinese respondents their views of Ukraine, but prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian opinion appears to have been far more positive towards China than the reverse

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The US was the most negatively viewed country in China with slightly more than 60% of respondents perceiving it negatively and 31% holding positive attitudes. India was the second-most poorly evaluated country, with nearly 58% negative views, followed by Japan with 55%. Figure 3 also suggests that perceptions of the US have significantly deteriorated recently: almost 60% of the Chinese respondents stated their perception of the US had worsened over the past three years. Interestingly, in the case of Japan, about the same proportion of respondents (36% in both cases) reported that their views had improved and worsened over the same time period

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Russia also appeared to be one of the most recommended countries for pursuing higher education among the Chinese, behind only China itself (83%), Singapore (56%), and the United Kingdom (55%). More than 52% of respondents recommended university study in Russia (see Figure 11), while India and South Korea were the least recommended countries for university studies, with 63% and 42% of respondents not recommending them respectively

Riaz Haq said...

Opinion The best China strategy? Defeat Russia.

By Fareed Zakaria


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/biden-administration-defeat-russia-contain-china-ukraine-war/


Ironically, one of the people who attended Blinken’s speech was Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who during his presidential campaign in 2012 warned that Russia posed the single largest threat to the United States. Those, including myself, who dismissed his prognosis were wrong, because we looked only at Russia’s strength, which was not impressive. But Romney clearly understood that power in the international realm is measured by a mixture of capabilities and intentions. And though Russia is not a rising giant, it is determined to challenge and divide America and Europe and tear up the rules-based international system. Putin’s Russia is the world’s great spoiler.

This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?

America’s dominant priority must be to ensure that Russia does not prevail in its aggression against Ukraine. And right now, trends are moving in the wrong direction. Russian forces are consolidating their gains in eastern Ukraine. Sky-high oil prices have ensured that money continues to flow into Putin’s coffers. Europeans are beginning to talk about off-ramps. Moscow is offering developing nations a deal: Get the West to call off sanctions, it tells them, and it will help export all the grain from Ukraine and Russia and avert famine in many parts of the world. Ukraine’s leaders say it still does not have the weapons and training it needs to fight back effectively.

The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.

Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.

Riaz Haq said...

Muneeb Sikander
@MuneebASikander
1/2 Pak Flood hit rural economy

Work produces things of value and transforms physical world in ways to make life better and survival possible.

But without organised and purposeful productive action, i.e., work, not possible for most people asis at the base of economic order


https://twitter.com/MuneebASikander/status/1572606162939289601?s=20&t=hDUZH4AawwsjZEdasU77jw

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2/2 Flood hit rural areas

Agrarian to agriculture/livestock based or limited workshop industry. Limited Agri TFP + 15.4 million at poverty risk

1. Need for agri TFP improvement
2., Need to diversify economic base by Proto-industrialization,

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2021/how-jump-start-industrialization-sub-saharan-africa

https://twitter.com/MuneebASikander/status/1572606221076819970?s=20&t=hDUZH4AawwsjZEdasU77jw

Riaz Haq said...

New Order with a Blend of Western Liberalism and Eastern Civilizational Nationalism | Institut Montaigne


By Ram Madhav Founding Member of the Governing Council of India Foundation (Hindu Nationalist RSS)

"...no one wants the present world order to continue except the US and its [Western] allies."

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/new-order-blend-western-liberalism-and-eastern-civilizational-nationalism

The conflict in Ukraine has begun reshaping the global order. Ram Madhav, Former National General Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Member of the Governing Council of India Foundation, questions the legitimacy of the Western leadership model for “Ukraine Shifting the World Order”. Shedding light on the increasingly heteropolar nature of our world, he advocates for a new world order based on 21st century realities: one where nationalism and liberalism can coexist and where the Global South is a primary stakeholder.



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The Western leadership model
Two important questions arise. Firstly, is a uniform world order wedded to those three principles mandatory for the world, or can there be diversity? Secondly, who is responsible for wrecking the current liberal order? The Western powers themselves or their recalcitrant challengers like Russia and China?

After the Second World War, Western leadership villainized national identity. Nationalism was blamed for the two wars and all modern nation-states were mandated to follow the same template: liberal democracy, open market capitalism and globalization. Other forms were condemned as retrograde. When India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru mobilized nations to build a non-alignment movement, the Western leadership disapprovingly dubbed him a "neutralist". The Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991, and a wave of enthusiasm engulfed the Western world. A unipolar world order based on Western liberal principles seemed inevitable and a fait accompli.

Fukuyama's 1992 book The End of History and the Last Man argued Western liberal democracies would become "the endpoint of mankind’s socio-cultural evolution, and the final form of human government". Samuel Huntington directly challenged Fukuyama with his provocative 1996 "Clash of Civilizations" thesis, stating that far from unipolarity, the ideological world had been divided on civilizational identities, the new source of conflict in the world, with "each learning to coexist with the others". Later years proved that the collapse of the Soviet Union had not moved the world from bipolarity to unipolarity, but to multipolarity. Several nation-states, with long cultural and civilizational histories, like China, Arab countries and India, have emerged as the new poles in the world. We also witnessed the rise of non-state poles - multinational corporations, social media giants, new age religious movements, non-governmental bodies like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Oxfam and CARE, and even terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and ISIS. With influences beyond the national boundaries of the states, these created a heteropolar world.

The erosion of the liberal democratic world order is a Western failure
The hegemonic nature of the world order is eroding with the rise of the heteropolar world. Lofty ideals that it cherished - liberal democracy, open markets, human rights and multilateralism - have been facing severe scrutiny and challenge in the last two decades. Unfortunately, the institutions created for sustaining that world order have increasingly grown weak and ineffective. The world appears to be moving inexorably in the direction of anarchy. The Ukrainian-Russian war is the latest, not the first, in the sequence of events that have catalyzed the collapse of the old world order. The West wants the world to believe that Russia and Putin were the culprits for ushering in anarchy and attempting to destroy what they had built over the last seven decades. But the West cannot escape responsibility for the failure of its hegemony.

Riaz Haq said...

#Russia Wants To Participate In The #China-#Pakistan Economic Corridor. Russia’s vision for its Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) passes through the #CPEC, as part of China’s #BRI. #Afghanistan #India #Eurasia | OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Russia-Wants-To-Participate-In-The-China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=tw_repost #oilprice

By Jamestown Foundation


On September 27, the Taliban government in Afghanistan disclosed a deal it signed with Russia to import petroleum products and wheat at a discounted rate (Al Jazeera, September 28). The deal came days before Russia agreed to provide petrol to Pakistan on deferred payments and extend its gas pipeline infrastructure in Central Asia to the Islamic republic (see EDM, October 5).

In truth, Russia has been seeking expanded ties in Southwest Asia in recent months. Moscow’s deepening involvement with Pakistan and Afghanistan is all about preparing for Russia’s entry into the $62 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Russia’s growing interest in the CPEC comes against the backdrop of budding Russian-Pakistani relations over the past few years. Moscow was willing to join the CPEC in 2016 when it requested Islamabad to allow Russia to use Gwadar Port for its exports. This strategically located port along the Arabian Sea in Pakistan’s Balochistan province is an essential part of the CPEC. Islamabad accorded approval to Moscow’s request, and then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, during his visit to Turkmenistan in November 2016, welcomed the Kremlin’s decision to join the project (Hindustan Times, November 26, 2016). In 2019, the two countries, during a meeting of the Pakistan-Russia Consultative Group on Strategic Stability in Islamabad, agreed to the proposed seven-point road map for boosting bilateral relations. The visiting Russian delegation was headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Russian participation in the CPEC was among the seven points, which also included the signing of a free-trade agreement between Moscow and Islamabad as well as a deepening of strategic defense relations (Times of Islamabad, March 28, 2019).

What does joining the CPEC mean for Moscow in a strategic sense? In fact, Russia’s vision for its Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) passes through the CPEC, as part of China’s BRI. Through its participation in the CPEC, the Kremlin will seek to merge the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the BRI. In April 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the Second BRI Forum for International Cooperation that five EAEU member states had unanimously supported the idea of pairing the EAEU’s development with the BRI. Overall, an EAEU-BRI merger would be a real step forward in Moscow’s quest to realize the goals of the GEP, which, beyond connecting with the BRI, also include improving connectivity with Iran, India and Southeast Asia (Russiancouncil.ru, June 3, 2020). With its geostrategic location, which marks the confluence of South, Central and Southwest Asia, Pakistan has the strong potential to play a promising role in making the GEP a reality. Thus, Putin recently characterized Pakistan as one of Russia’s “priority partners” in Asia (see EDM, October 5).


Why does China want Russia to join the CPEC? Whereas Russia’s participation in the CPEC will strengthen and boost Sino-Russian cooperation and brighten prospects for economic integration in the region, it might also appease India, which is fiercely opposed to the CPEC traversing Pakistani regions claimed by New Delhi. China wants Russia to play its role in brokering a peace agreement between the two arch rivals—India and Pakistan—to save the CPEC (Pakistan Today, January 10, 2017).

Riaz Haq said...

China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers
China and Russia have expanded trade and defense ties over the past decade, but they’re not formal allies. Experts say Russia’s war in Ukraine could be a turning point in the relationship.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-russia-relationship-xi-putin-taiwan-ukraine

China and Russia have expanded trade and defense ties over the past decade. But they are not formal allies, and some experts question the strength of the relationship.
They share the desire to curb the United States’ power and challenge its hegemony. Russia has used force, while China has worked to compete with the United States.
Experts say Russia’s war in Ukraine has exposed the limits of the relationship. China hasn’t defended Russia on the battlefield, though Chinese officials have refused to condemn the war.


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China has greatly benefited from the current international order and seeks to reform it, rather than replace it, to better suit its interests. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, Chinese officials have touted the country’s development as a “peaceful rise” that aims to avoid military conflict with the United States and its allies. It has worked to compete with the United States, build economic and diplomatic ties with countries worldwide through its Belt and Road Initiative, and promote a vision of win-win cooperation. Moreover, it has played an increasingly active role in international institutions, such as the United Nations.

Russia, on the other hand, has flouted many international laws and norms in its actions abroad—such as its election meddling, political assassinations, and cyberattacks—and experts have described it as a rogue state. “Russia is much more provocative, while China is taking a more careful, long-term approach when it comes to global competition with the West,” Georgia State University’s Maria Repnikova says. She adds that although both China and Russia are contributing to authoritarian trends globally, there is limited evidence that they carry out coordinated activities to undermine democracies together.

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Russia could become even more reliant on trade with China as the EU moves to ban imports of Russian oil. China-Russia trade is already heavily dominated by energy, partly because the countries have what experts call complementary economies. China has enormous energy needs, and Russia has an abundance of oil and natural gas. Indeed, more than half of Russia’s exports to China in 2020 were energy-related. And in 2021, Russia provided 16 percent of China’s crude oil imports, 15 percent of its coal imports, and 10 percent of its natural gas imports.

Before the war in Ukraine began, Xi and Putin agreed to boost annual trade by 50 percent by 2024 and reportedly planned to build a cross-border gas pipeline. (Today, most of Russia’s pipelines flow to Europe. Only one goes to China.) Yet, some Chinese companies have reportedly been hesitant to take on new projects in Russia out of concern they could violate international sanctions.

Riaz Haq said...

RIAC :: Pakistan’s Role in Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnershi

https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/pakistan-s-role-in-russia-s-greater-eurasian-partnership/

Connectivity is one of the key trends of the 21st century, which Russia is fully embracing with its Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) in order to counteract the chaotic processes unleashed throughout the course of the ongoing systemic transition from unipolarity to multipolarity. This outlook sets forth the grand strategic task of integrating with some of the former countries of the erstwhile Soviet Union through the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and then further afield with the other regions of Eurasia in order to benefit from the growing cross-supercontinental trade between Europe and Asia. President Putin declared during the second Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) Forum in April 2019 that this Chinese-led project “rimes with Russia’s idea to establish a Greater Eurasian Partnership” and that “The five EAEU member states have unanimously supported the idea of pairing the EAEU development and the Chinese Silk Road Economic Belt project”. It naturally follows that the pairing of the EAEU with BRI would involve Russia improving its connectivity with the latter’s flagship project of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in South Asia, thereby endowing Pakistan with an important role in the GEP. The rapidly improving relations between Moscow and Islamabad, as well as the peacemaking efforts undertaken by those two states and other stakeholders in Afghanistan across 2019, raise the prospect of a future trade corridor traversing through the countries between them and thus creating a new axis of Eurasian integration that would complete the first envisaged step of bringing the EAEU and BRI closer together. In pursuit of this multilaterally beneficial outcome, it’s important to explain the policymaking and academic bases behind it so as to prove the viability of this proposal.

Riaz Haq said...

China Is Investing Billions in Pakistan. Its Workers There Are Under Attack.
Beijing’s Belt and Road investment strategy meets resistance in the developing world it seeks to influence

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pakistan-attacks-belt-and-road-11669218179


China is the largest lender to the developing world, mainly through Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure program. The country has worked to portray itself as a benevolent partner to the countries where it is spending money, in an attempt to draw a distinction with Western powers.

Still, as its global reach expands, China is increasingly grappling with the consequences of projecting power around the world, including corruption, local resentment, political instability and violence. For developing countries, China offers perhaps the best chance of quickly building major infrastructure.


Beijing accepts a degree of security risk in pursuing its Belt and Road program and is committed to working with partner governments, such as in Pakistan, to mitigate threats to Chinese personnel and assets, Chinese experts say.

“We couldn’t possibly wait until all terror attacks cease before starting new projects,” said Qian Feng, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s National Strategy Institute. “We have to keep working, studying the issues, and undertake preventative measures at the same time.”

Chinese businesses and workers in several countries where it is making investments have become favored targets. Chinese nationals are seen as wealthier than most locals and, in some cases, are perceived to be reaping too much of the economic benefits and job opportunities created by Beijing’s investments.

Gunmen in Nigeria abducted four Chinese workers in June during an attack at a mine in the country’s northwest. In October, unidentified “thugs” attacked a Chinese-funded business in Nigeria and killed a Chinese employee there, according to the Chinese consulate in Lagos. The consulate urged Chinese companies to hire private security and fortify their work areas.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Chinese investors dominate the mining industry, Chinese business groups and workers have sounded alarms about armed robberies and kidnappings in recent months. Beijing has urged local authorities to step up security for Chinese assets and personnel.

There were about 440,000 Chinese people working abroad for Chinese contractors in Asia and roughly 93,500 in Africa at the end of last year, according to the China International Contractors Association, a Beijing-based industry group.

The Oxus Society, a Washington-based think tank, counted about 160 incidents of civil unrest in Central Asia between 2018 and mid-2021 where China was the key issue.

Beijing recognizes the rising threat to its workers in developing countries but doesn’t want to send in its army as it professes noninterference abroad, said Alessandro Arduino, author of “China’s Private Army: Protecting the New Silk Road.” Instead, China is deploying technology such as facial recognition and hiring more private Chinese security contractors, he said.

China chose Pakistan—one of its closest allies, with deep military ties and a common rival in India—as a showcase of its investment in developing nations. Beijing has spent about $25 billion here on roads, power plants and a port.

Riaz Haq said...

Indian PM Modi to skip annual Putin summit over Ukraine nuke threats

https://news.yahoo.com/indian-pm-modi-skip-annual-161600206.html

It would mark only the second time the leaders of India and Russia haven’t met face to face since 2000, when the relationship was elevated to a strategic partnership. The summit, usually held in December, was cancelled just once in 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Bloomberg, Modi’s government is trying to balance between Moscow, a key provider of weapons and cheap energy, and the United States and its allies, which have imposed sanctions and price caps on Russian oil.

Since Russia’s invasion began, India has been one of the biggest swing nations. Modi’s government abstained from United Nations votes to condemn Putin’s war and held back from participating in U.S.-led efforts to sanction Moscow, using the opportunity to snatch up cheap Russian oil.

Riaz Haq said...

A new study on China’s global influence puts Pakistan at the top of the list.


https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-most-exposed-to-chinese-influence-new-research-shows/6873075.html


Cambodia and Singapore are in second and third place respectively as the “most exposed” to Beijing’s influence. Among the top 10 countries most exposed to influence by China, eight are in Asia. Paraguay, North Macedonia and Albania were ranked as ‘least influenced.’

The China Index 2022 explores China’s influence in 82 countries by asking experts to respond to questions about China’s activities in their country. The study was conducted and published by the China in the World (CITW) network, an initiative of Taiwan-based anti-disinformation group, Doublethink Lab.

The report asked questions across nine domains to assess each country’s exposure to Chinese influence.


The domains included media, academia, economy, society, military, law enforcement, technology, domestic politics and foreign policy. Some of Beijing’s activities abroad included paid trips for government officials, scholarships for students, journalism training, research funding, trade, investment and military cooperation.

Puma Shen, chairperson of Doublethink Lab told VOA this research lets people around the world see how China approaches their country.

“By comparing all these rankings and comparing all the different strategy, all these countries could learn [about] each other, like how to counter Chinese influence operations,” he said.

Measuring China’s influence

The report measures influence through three indicators, ‘exposure,’ ‘pressure’ and ‘effect.’

Exposure to China’s initiatives abroad make a country vulnerable to China’s influence, for example, economic dependence or receiving other benefits.

How much ‘pressure’ China puts on a specific country includes either direct or indirect actions by Beijing with the aim of altering people’s behavior.

The actual impact or the extent to which a country accommodates China’s demands, is described as ‘effect’ in the study.

Pakistan ranks #1

Pakistan, the county most exposed to China’s influence in the Index received a 70% rating on exposure, 10% on pressure and 75% on effect. However, the report says these percentages “do not suggest some degree out of a “completely influenced” level of 100%. The percentages express the country’s score out of the total achievable amount based on the indicators for each domain.”

According to the report, China’s influence in Pakistan is most active in the domains of technology, foreign policy and military.

Riaz Haq said...

A new study on China’s global influence puts Pakistan at the top of the list.


https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-most-exposed-to-chinese-influence-new-research-shows/6873075.html

Pakistan-China ties

Experts said it is not surprising to see Pakistan at the top of the China Index 2022 as both share an almost 600 km (373 miles) border with each other and a historic rivalry with India.

Decades old strategic ties between the two have deepened since the U.S. ramped up efforts to bolster India to counter China’s growing ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.

“We cannot decouple and only look at Pakistan and China because to be fair, you also have to look at how the U.S. and India are also working it because there is also this sort of strategic quadrilateral relationship” said Syed Muhammad Ali, non-resident scholar at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

Others point out that Pakistan’s closeness with China is also a result of Islamabad’s ties with the West cooling off, especially during the last decade.

Arif Rafiq, President of Vizier Consulting, a political risk advisory company told VOA for Pakistan, China is filling a void left by the West.

“China provides Pakistan with goods and materials and funds that it can't get from elsewhere, …that includes military hardware, …advanced technologies related to satellite remote sensing, and also includes funding for electric power plants and infrastructure,” said Rafiq.

In recent years the two countries have struck deals to jointly build submarines and fighter jets. Between 2017 and 2021, Pakistan imported 72% of its major arms from China according to the Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

While the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) launched in 2015 is considered the jewel in the crown of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative with roughly $60 billion worth of infrastructure and energy projects, in October local media reported Beijing and Islamabad also agreed to officially launch three new corridors in the areas of agriculture, health and technology.

Pakistan’s top spot on the China Index 2022 also shows Beijing’s reliance on Islamabad, said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at Washington’s Wilson Center.

“These results highlight the fact that the strategic interests of China require a significant level of engagement and influence building with Pakistan,” Kugelman said.

Riaz Haq said...

China’s frontier aggression has pushed India to the West
Brawling on the roof of the world

https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/12/15/chinas-frontier-aggression-has-pushed-india-to-the-west

The most likely flashpoints in Asia are generally thought to be the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean peninsula. This week, though, attention turned to the Himalayas and the 3,440-km (2,150-mile) border, much of it disputed, between the world’s most populous powers. News of a high-altitude brawl on December 9th has trickled down from the mountains.

The border disputes date back to the early 20th century when Britain demarcated spheres of influence between British India and Tibet (not in those days under Chinese subjugation). At the western end of the frontier, India claims Aksai Chin, an area under Chinese control in the Xinjiang region. In the eastern sector, China claims the whole of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as a historical part of Tibet: an earlier Dalai Lama was born in its Tawang monastery. Sixty years ago India and China fought a nasty war over the disputed line. It ended with India humiliated by the People’s Liberation Army (pla).


In the decades since, confrontations have often taken place. But thanks to protocols agreed between the two countries—including a ban on using firearms when patrols clash—most have been tokenistic. Until recently, both sides tacitly acknowledged the other’s patrol routes along the contested Line of Actual Control (lac). When rival patrols met, warning banners were raised and sharp words exchanged, but little worse.

That changed in 2020 when the remote Galwan valley, in Ladakh in the western sector, saw a terrible mêlée that left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead. They were the first fatalities along the frontier since 1975. The latest incident was in the eastern sector near Tawang, and resulted in no deaths; yet it appears to have been similar to the one in Galwan. Several hundred pla soldiers—many times the usual patrol size—are said to have charged across to the Indian side of an “agreed disputed area”, in the frontier jargon. They carried tasers and spiked clubs, and were swinging “monkey fists”, steel balls on lengths of rope. Well-prepared Indian troops pushed them back, India claims, but with injuries on both sides. China says the Indians “illegally” crossed the lac and sought to block a Chinese patrol. It was the first clash in the eastern sector in years.

Though the details of such incidents are always contested, and neither side’s account is reliable, the Galwan fracas appeared to represent a direct Chinese challenge to the status quo. It occurred after China had built new roads along the border and reinforced it with troops and equipment. It is now doing much the same in the eastern sector and India, as ever, is scrambling to keep up. “Unpredictability” along the frontier, writes Sushant Singh of the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, “has become structural”.

To manage the tensions that it has done so much to increase, China may well propose to establish buffer zones in the east, just as the two sides have done in the west. Given that such zones often mean India being shut out of areas that it had previously patrolled, they are tantamount to an Indian retreat. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, would be extremely reluctant to submit to this. India’s political opposition senses that he is vulnerable on the issue.

Mr Modi once invited President Xi Jinping to his home state to celebrate the Indian prime minister’s birthday. Such chumminess is long gone. China says the border dispute should be isolated from the two countries’ broader relationship. But India considers a peaceful border a precondition for normal ties, says Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington. Since Galwan, India has blocked a lot of Chinese investment and banned Chinese apps. Official visits are curtailed. The two leaders have had one brief exchange in three years, at the g20 summit in Bali.

Riaz Haq said...

Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320bn military build-up
Unthinkable under past administrations, the rapid arming of Japan has the support of about 70 percent of voters, polls say.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/16/pacifist-japan-unveils-unprecedented-320bn-military-build-up

Japan has said it would begin a once-unthinkable $320bn military build-up that would arm it with missiles capable of striking China and ready it for a sustained conflict as regional tensions and Russia’s Ukraine invasion stoke war fears.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government worries that Russia has set a precedent that will encourage China to attack Taiwan, threatening nearby Japanese islands, disrupting supplies of advanced semiconductors, and putting a potential stranglehold on sea lanes that supply Middle East oil.

Japan’s post-World War II constitution does not officially recognise the military and limits it to nominally self-defensive capabilities.

In its sweeping five-year plan and revamped national security strategy, the government said on Friday it would also stockpile spare parts and other munitions, reinforce logistics, develop cyber-warfare capabilities, and cooperate more closely with the United States and other like-minded nations to deter threats to the established international order.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a serious violation of laws that forbid the use of force and has shaken the foundations of the international order,” it said in the national security paper.

“The strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest Japan has ever faced.”

Unthinkable under past administrations, the rapid arming of Japan, which already hosts US forces, including a carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary force, has the backing of most voters, according to opinion polls. Some surveys put support as high as 70 percent of voters.

Kishida’s plan will double defence outlays to about 2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) over the next five years, and increase the defence ministry’s share to about one-tenth of all public spending.

It will also make Japan the world’s third-biggest military spender after the US and China, based on current budgets.

The five-year spending roadmap did not come with a detailed plan for how Kishida’s administration would pay for it, as ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers continue to discuss whether to raise taxes or borrow money.

The money will fund projects including the acquisition of what Japan calls “counterstrike capacity” – the ability to hit launch sites that threaten the country.


The documents warn that Japan’s current missile interception systems are no longer sufficient and a “counterstrike capacity is necessary”.

While Japanese governments have long suggested that counterstrikes to neutralise enemy attacks would be permissible under the constitution, there has been little appetite to secure the capacity.

That has shifted with the continued growth of Chinese military might and a record volley of North Korean missile launches in recent months, including over Japanese territory.

Still, in a nod to the sensitivity of the issue, the documents rule out preemptive strikes, and insist Japan is committed to “an exclusively defence-oriented policy”.

Its language on relations with both China and Russia has hardened significantly.

The strategy document previously said Japan was seeking a “mutually beneficial strategic partnership” with Beijing, a phrase that has disappeared from this iteration.

Instead it suggests a “constructive and stable relationship” and better communication.

China’s foreign ministry on Friday urged Japan to “reflect on its policies”.

“Japan disregards the facts, deviates from the common understandings between China and Japan and its commitment to bilateral relations, and discredits China,” ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters.

Riaz Haq said...

Putin to Xi: Russia seeks to strengthen military ties with China

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/30/russia-now-one-of-chinas-leading-suppliers-of-oil-and-gas-putin


The US has expressed concern over Beijing’s alignment with Moscow amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.


Russia’s ties with China are the “best in history”, President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, as he said Moscow would seek to strengthen military cooperation with Beijing.

The two leaders spoke via video link on Friday, and Putin said he was expecting Xi to make a state visit to Moscow in 2023. If it were to take place, it would be a public show of solidarity by Beijing amid Moscow’s flailing military campaign in Ukraine.


In introductory remarks from the video conference broadcast on state television, Putin said: “We are expecting you, dear Mr chairman, dear friend, we are expecting you next spring on a state visit to Moscow.”

He said the visit would “demonstrate to the world the closeness of Russian-Chinese relations”.

Speaking for about eight minutes, Putin said Russia-China relations were growing in importance as a stabilising factor, and that he aimed to deepen military cooperation between the two countries.

In a response that lasted about a quarter as long, Xi said China was ready to increase strategic cooperation with Russia against the backdrop of what he called a “difficult” situation in the world at large.

Earlier this month, Russia and China conducted joint naval drills, which Russia’s army chief described as a response to the “aggressive” US military posturing in the Asia-Pacific region.

Xi “emphasized that China has noted that Russia has never refused to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations, for which it [China] expresses its appreciation,” Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported of the call.

The Chinese leader told Putin that the road to peace talks on Ukraine would not be smooth and that China would continue to uphold its “objective and fair stance” on the issue, according to CCTV.

“The Chinese side has noted that the Russian side has said it has never refused to resolve the conflict through diplomatic negotiations, and expressed its appreciation for this,” he was quoted as saying.

Xi, however, made clear the ideological affinity between Beijing and Moscow when it came to opposing what both view as the hegemonic US-led West.

“Facts have repeatedly proved that containment and suppression are unpopular, and sanctions and interference are doomed to failure,” Xi told Putin.

“China is ready to work with Russia and all progressive forces around the world that oppose hegemonism and power politics…and firmly defend the sovereignty, security and development interests of both countries and international justice.”

In February, China promised a “no limits” partnership with Russia, which set off alarm bells in the West. Beijing has refused to criticise Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, blaming the United States and NATO for provoking the Kremlin. It has also blasted the sanctions imposed on Russia.

The US State Department on Friday expressed concern over China’s alignment with Russia. “Beijing claims to be neutral, but its behaviour makes clear it is still investing in close ties to Russia,” a spokesperson said, adding Washington was “monitoring Beijing’s activity closely.”

Russia leading supplier of oil to China
Putin also said Russia has become one of China’s leading suppliers of oil and gas.

“Russia has become one of the leaders in oil exports to China”, with 13.8 billion cubic metres of gas shipped via the Power of Siberia pipeline in the first 11 months of 2022.

Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s top crude supplier last month.

Putin added that Russia was China’s second-largest supplier of pipeline gas and fourth-largest of liquefied natural gas (LNG). He said in December, shipments had been 18 percent above daily contractual obligations.

Riaz Haq said...

Beijing relies on Pakistan to project its might, Pentagon report notes

https://www.dawn.com/news/1724020

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/29/2003122279/-1/-1/1/2022-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF

China relies on Pakistan for projecting its military and economic might as Islamabad remains a key Beijing ally, says the US Department of Defence.

The China Military Power 2022 report — released here on Tuesday — examines how China seeks to achieve its “national rejuvenation” objective by 2049 with the help of international partners, such as Pakistan.

According to the report, China ranks Pakistan as its only “all-weather strategic partner” while Russia as its only “comprehensive strategic partner with coordination relations”.

During the last five years, China has expanded ties with both of its historical partners, Pakistan and Russia. Pakistan is also one of the places that China has likely “considered as locations for military logistics facilities”.

The report notes that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is associated with pipelines and port construction projects in Pakistan. But with the help of those projects, China “seeks to become less reliant on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca”.

Beijing also attempts to exploit the relationships it builds through BRI to pursue additional economic cooperation with participating countries, the report adds.

It recalls that in 2021, 10 Chinese nationals were killed, and 26 others injured when a suicide bomber targeted a workers’ bus on its way to a BRI infrastructure development project in Pakistan.

The report, however, claims that China used this incident to “extend its ability to project military power to safeguard its overseas interests, including BRI, by developing closer regional and bilateral counterterrorism” cooperation with Pakistan.

Reviewing China’s growing military and economic cooperation with Pakistan, the report notes how Beijing helped Islamabad complete the in-orbit delivery of the Pakistan Remote-Sensing Satellite.

China also vigorously pursues its policy of supporting a BRI host-nation’s security forces through military aid, including military equipment donations.

The examples of China-Pakistan cooperation cited in the report include joint military exercises. It notes that in 2020-21, China participated in a joint naval exercise with Pakistan and also supplied strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong Unmanned Aircraft Systems to Pakistan.

China also supplied major naval vessels to its partners, highlighted by Pakistan’s 2015 purchase of eight Yuan class submarines for more than $3 billion. In 2017 and 2018, China sold four naval frigates to Pakistan.

Under the PLANMC, which supports the PRC’s military diplomacy, Chinese forces have trained with Thai, Pakistani, Saudi Arabia’s, South African, and Djiboutian forces.

Pakistan is also a member of the China-led Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation.

The “Military and Sec­urity Developments Invo­lving the People’s Republic of China,” commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR), is a Congressionally mandated document. It serves as an authoritative assessment of China’s military and security strategy.

The report follows the Pentagon’s release of the National Defence Strategy in October, which identified China as the “most consequential and systemic challenge” to US national security and a free and open international system.

The military power report covers the contours of the People’s Liberation Army’s way of war, surveys the PLA’s current activities and capabilities, and assesses its future military modernisation goals.

The Pentagon argues that China’s foreign policy seeks to build a “community of common destiny” that supports its strategy to realise “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

Beijing’s “revisionist ambition” for the international order derives from the objectives of its national strategy and the Communist Party’s political and governing systems, it said.


Riaz Haq said...

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Who wants to partner with whom

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants to partner with whom

•Among different religious groups, US is ahead of China in preference for economic partnership. However, the gap is narrowest among Muslim respondents.

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631953152646717440?s=20

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
A representative sample of men and women in Pakistan was asked the following question: “Which of the following would you prefer your country to partner with economically – ” 56% responded China, 13% preferred US, 8% said Russia while another 8% said Others

Gallup International

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631954401756684294?s=20

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
•Interesting to note that just like economic preference, low-income economies prefer China for security partnership.

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants to partner with whom

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631954080275877890?s=20

------------------


Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Pakistan tops the world in terms of wanting to have security partnership with China

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants to partner with whom

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631953801484574723?s=20

--------------

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Out of the 64 countries that were surveyed, South Korea tops security preference for US, Pakistan tops preference for China, while Serbia tops the preference for Russia and EU for security partnership

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants to partner with whom

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631953576535773185?s=20


------------

Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
•Popularity of economic partnership with China was found to be highest in Sub Saharan Africa followed by MENA region. The least support was found in EU (lower than even US)

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants to partner with whom

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631953351406436354?s=20

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
•Younger populations are more amiable towards China when it comes to striking Economic partnership. 23% of respondents under the age of 34 preferred China. Only 11 % in 55+ age bracket across the globe.

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631952766477258754?s=20

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Pakistan, UAE and Nigeria are at the bottom for economic partnership with EU.

Gallup International survey in 64 countries on who wants economic partnership with whom

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631952561530974208?s=20

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Bilal I Gilani
@bilalgilani
Yemen, Pakistan and Russia top in willingness to pursue economic partnership with China.

Gallup international survey on who wants to partner with whom in the global rivals US , China , Russia

https://twitter.com/bilalgilani/status/1631952275773050880?s=20

Riaz Haq said...

The federal government has decided to go ahead with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) amid the watchful eyes of international entities. The federal cabinet has approved the commencement of the second, and most important, phase of the CPEC project for industrial development of Pakistan.

https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/03/23/despite-international-pressure-pakistan-proceeds-with-the-second-phase-of-cpec/

According to reports, the industrial cooperation agreement between the two neighboring countries will be effective till 2025, with the possibility of further expansion. They elaborated that under the agreement, there will be capacity building and skill development of Pakistan’s CPEC workforce. The Ministry of External Affairs and Ministry of Law jointly endorsed the draft agreement, sources claimed.

To clarify, BoI is the lead agency of the Joint Working Group (JWG) on industrial cooperation under CPEC from the Pakistani side. On the other hand, the Chinese counterpart of the BoI is the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC), China.

A framework agreement was also signed between both parties in 2022, which besides other matters of significance, also aims to foster skill development and capacity building of the local workforce. This shows the potential skilling and economic advancement that Pakistan anticipates would result from the current endeavor.

Here is what happened in the pursuance of the consensus reached in the Framework Agreement and the 10th JCC meeting of CPEC, held on 23rd September 2021, the NDRC– China has proposed that an MoC between BoI and the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU) is likely to be signed, in order to strengthen workers’ exchange under CPEC Industrial Cooperation.

Sources further hinted that the proposed MoC envisages to conduct exchange programmes of Government officers and workforce associated with CPEC projects, through capacity building and skill development, Chinese language courses, and any other mutually agreed mechanism to promote people to people ties.

According to sources, BoI and ACFTU have reached consensus on the text of the draft MoC, which has been duly vetted by the Law Division, as well as been concurred by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Based on the draft copy, available with Profit, of the MoC between the ACFTU of China and the BoI of Pakistan, there will be an agreement between the two entities to promote industrial cooperation, within the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Industrial Cooperation (CPEC IC).

In the foreseeable future (2023-2025), and keeping in mind the COVID-19 pandemic, both sides will, on the basis of mutual consent, hold online workers symposiums at regular intervals, as well as, carry out relevant exchanges and cooperation. The online symposium will be designated for the workforces of both countries that are actively engaged in and contributing to the construction of CPEC. This will provide a platform to augment people to people exchanges through experience sharing and suggestions for the future development of CPEC.

Moreover, online seminars based on the Chinese’s successful experience in development for Special Economic Zones (SEZs) shall also be organized for the concerned stakeholders in Pakistan. Following the same timeline, in the next three years, both sides shall initiate an exchange programme by arranging activities in their respective countries to foster practical people to people and cultural exchanges on ground.

To provide first hand experience of the successful industrial models in China, the Chinese stakeholders shall facilitate the field visits of the concerned teams from Pakistan, including the Chinese SEZs, sources told Profit. Likewise, in order to mitigate the language barrier between the two countries’ workforces associated with CPEC, while promoting brotherly relations and cultural ties, both sides shall arrange exchange programmes by holding language learning courses in their respective countries.

Riaz Haq said...

Why Chinese Apps Are the Favorites of Young Americans
It isn’t just the algorithms, but lessons from a cutthroat culture


https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-chinese-apps-are-the-favorites-of-young-americans-a9a5064a

The concern around TikTok in Washington is drawing fresh attention to how Chinese apps have woven themselves into the fabric of young Americans’ lives—and what makes them so popular.

Four of the five hottest apps in the U.S. in March were forged in China. Algorithms are often cited as their secret sauce. An often overlooked facet is how cutthroat competition for users at home has given Chinese firms a leg up over Western rivals.

Much like during China’s rise to manufacturing dominance a few decades ago, Chinese tech companies have harnessed a labor pool of affordable talent to constantly fine-tune product features.

The nonstop drive to get better even has a term in China’s tech industry: “embroidery.”

“Everybody works on improving their craft, stitch by stitch,” said Fan Lu, a venture-capital investor who invested in TikTok’s predecessor Musical.ly.

Seven-month-old Temu was the most downloaded app across U.S. app stores during the first three weeks of March, according to market-insights firm Sensor Tower. It was followed by TikTok’s video-editing partner app CapCut and TikTok itself. Fast-fashion retailer Shein came in fourth. Then came Facebook, the only non-Chinese app among the top five.

One illustration of how immersed American consumers are in an app ecosystem created by Chinese companies: Under the hashtags #temuhaul or #sheinhaul, Gen-Z shoppers have taken to display the result of their shopping sprees in TikTok videos with captions such as “$50 worth of very RANDOM items on TEMU.”


-----------

The popularity of the apps has gotten them caught in the crossfire of U.S.-China geopolitical tension—TikTok in particular. The Biden administration has threatened a possible ban on the app if ByteDance doesn’t sell its stakes in TikTok, citing national-security concerns. On Thursday, U.S. lawmakers pummeled TikTok’s Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew about Beijing’s potential influence over the app.

Beijing has opposed a TikTok sale and said it would never require companies to illegally gather data from overseas. Meanwhile, a bill gaining momentum in Washington would result in a blanket ban of broad categories of Chinese technology, including American teenagers’ favorite apps, if it is passed.

Riaz Haq said...

Arif Rafiq
@ArifCRafiq
Saudi Arabia made two important moves on Tuesday as part of its pivot to Asia. It took a step toward joining the SCO, a multilateral org led by China & Russia. And it approved a counterterrorism cooperation agreement with India’s foreign intel agency RAW.

https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/1641260371515154433?s=20

-----------------

By embracing the SCO, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its economic and security ties, tilting away from the U.S. toward Asia instead.

https://globelynews.com/middle-east/saudi-arabia-sco-china-russia/

by Arif Rafiq


Saudi Arabia announced yesterday that it would become a “dialogue partner” of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) — a multilateral security organization led by China and Russia. The move, reported by the official Saudi Press Agency, is several steps away from full membership. But it reflects how Riyadh is diversifying its economic and security ties, departing from a U.S.-centric approach and emphasizing Asia instead.

Indeed, on Tuesday, the Saudi Arabian cabinet — led by King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud — also approved a cooperation agreement on combatting terrorism and terrorism financing with India’s foreign intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

These developments come in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s signing of a China-brokered normalization agreement with Iran. Saudi Arabia’s deep economic ties to energy-hungry Asian powers are taking on a strategic form.


The SCO is a regional political and security bloc founded in 2001. Its original core membership was China and Russia and the four Central Asian former Soviet republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. India and Pakistan, initially observer states, joined as full members in 2015. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, are among the nine dialogue partners.

Iran too has a foot in the SCO door as an observer state — just one step away from membership. It’s expected to become a full member this year. So Saudi Arabia is dipping its toes in a bloc that is not only led by America’s rivals — China and Russia — but includes one of its own chief adversaries.

Right now, the Saudi move is heavy on symbolism, much like the SCO itself. The SCO has been hyped as a potential Eurasian NATO or EU-like economic bloc. But the diverse composition of the organization negates its coherence as a strategic entity. With archrivals India and Pakistan both full members, the SCO is unlikely to make big moves that would change the regional balance of power.

But down the road, if Iran and Saudi Arabia join as full members, there could be some interesting optics with both countries taking part in joint SCO counterterrorism or military exercises. At the moment, the Saudis have just made a low-cost decision to remind the United States that they are now a country with options.

Riaz Haq said...

Tranche of purported U.S. and allied military secrets leaked online in possible major intelligence breach

https://news.yahoo.com/tranche-of-purported-us-and-allied-military-secrets-leaked-online-in-possible-major-intelligence-breach-222137286.html

The U.S. Defense Department confirmed that some of the material was genuine but claimed it had been selectively edited.

One document labeled “TOP SECRET” allegedly originated from the CIA. It contains an assessment that Viktor Orban’s Hungary, a NATO and EU member—albeit one still close to Russia—now considers the U.S. to be one of its most significant geopolitical adversaries. Another assessment details the Russian Wagner mercenary group’s attempt to build contacts with the Haitian government. The spelling of the mercenary corps is “Vagner,” a common Russian phonetic spelling of the organization but one that is rarely used in material designated for public consumption. However, Yahoo News found previous examples of this transliteration being used in internal Defense Department maps, such those contained in an assessment of Wagner Group operations in Libya from July 24, 2020.

Another document details the proposed opening of a Russian-made weapons repair facility in the United Arab Emirates in coordination with Moscow. The UAE, an American ally in the Middle East, operates a significant amount of weaponry from Russia, most notably the Pantsir air defense system and the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle. It is unclear from this assessment whether refurbished military hardware would be for Russian use in Ukraine, a situation that would certainly tax Washington’s relationship with Abu Dhabi.

An alleged "CIA Intel Update" dated March 1 states that the leaders of Israel's Mossad intelligence service were egging on national protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms.

One printout posted on Discord contains significant technical detail about the numbers and potential failures of a specific weapon system provided by the United States to Ukraine. The document is marked “SECRET/NOFORN,” — with “NOFORN” meaning “Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals.” That is an explicit classification used to indicate intelligence information that “may not be released in any form to foreign governments, foreign nationals, foreign organizations, or non-U.S. citizens,” according to the Defense Department.

Another text suggests that the United Kingdom is planning to deploy one of the Royal Navy’s new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers to the South Pacific to counter Chinese influence in the region. It also assesses the priorities of the U.K. opposition Labour Party and how Beijing would react to an incoming Labour government scrapping the South Pacific plan in order to focus resources closer to home. This is also designated for American eyes only.

Other material contained in the tranche is less sensitive, such as an assessment of efficiency of the government response to the outbreak of the Marburg virus in Equatorial Guinea or the progress of the Nigerian election.

The timing of the leaks, coming at a moment when the Ukrainian military is preparing to launch a much-anticipated offensive, and also the method of their dissemination raise many questions about how these documents were obtained and also about their veracity.

The Ukraine documents that were circulated by pro-Russian sources contained crudely photoshopped modifications to casualty figures to suggest that Ukrainian forces had suffered significantly more casualties, and Russian forces significantly fewer casualties, than had actually been assessed by American intelligence. Whoever doctored them put the estimated killed-in-action figure for Ukraine, 16,000-17,500 — in the Russian field, which originally gave 35,500–43,500 killed in action. It also transposed the digits for the Ukrainian assessment, changing 16,000-17,500 to "61,000-71,500."