Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Erdogan. Show all posts

Friday, May 12, 2023

Pakistan Now: Darkest Before Dawn?

Pakistan is experiencing one of the darkest periods of its history. Political instability is eroding confidence in the nation's future. Declining economic growth and high inflation are hurting the people of all strata of society, particularly the poor whose numbers are rapidly rising. Is there any hope left for the country? Is it a case of the "darkest before dawn"? How do investors see it?

Ex PM Imran Khan (R) with President Erdogan

Writing in the Time magazine immediately after the recent arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, American investor, author and commentator Zachary Karabell who has invested in Pakistani startups sees rare hope for Pakistan. He sees Pakistan where Turkey was back in 2001-2003, "when a series of elections brought Recep Erdogan to power even as he was repeatedly disqualified by a military that was determined to retain control". Here's an excerpt of his article titled "The Contrarian Case for Pakistan" published in the current issue of Time Magazine:

"To some degree, this is an argument of “well, it’s not as bad as they say.” But it’s also a way of highlighting that Pakistan today may be a case of darkest before the dawn. With elections schedule for the fall, and with Imran Khan the most likely victor of said elections unless is his arrest leads to his disqualification as a candidate, Pakistan is in a very similar position to where Turkey was in 2001-2003, when a series of elections brought Recep Erdogan to power even as he was repeatedly disqualified by a military that was determined to retain control. Imran Khan has many of the same strengths and weaknesses of Erdogan, who after championing Turkish democracy and economic reform, then turned into the very type of corrupt autocrat that he had once fought against. But he nonetheless unleashed massive economic potential in Turkey and has left its 80 million people materially better off over the past 20 years, even as hyperinflation and Erdogan’s recent economic ineptitude is now eroding that. Should Imran Khan return to the head the government, he may well usher in a similar period in Pakistan, even as he has his own authoritarian and demagogic tendencies".

Here are some of the key points Karabell makes in his opinion piece:

1. Pakistan has a real and dynamic private sphere that is not only seeing a start-up and new business ecosystem that has attracted hundreds of millions of dollars a year for the past few years but operates freely in a way that would be inconceivable in many other countries. Compare it to Egypt, for example, which receives far less negative attention and more foreign money yet is almost entirely dominated by a military dictatorship. Or Algeria. And then there are countries which barely function at all, dominating a whole swath of Sub-Saharan Africa but also dot central Asia (Tajikistan anyone?).

2. Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world with 230 million souls, a median age of barely 22 and two-thirds of the population under the age of 30. That means unlike most of the world, it has a favorable demographic future.

2. Unlike, say, Nigeria, where the ethnic divisions and decades of corruption mean that it well-nigh impossible to treat the country as one unified market for goods and services, Pakistan is one common market even with its various tribal divisions.

Pakistan Population Youngest Among Major Asian Nations. Source: Nikkei Asia

Karabell concludes with the following:

Pakistan is on a cusp. We should honor the fact that whichever way the consensus believes it will go, the country is also poised to breakout on the upside. Which path will only be clear in retrospect, but we should pay more attention to the potential of things going right along with the legitimate focus on all that is going wrong.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Turkey's Erdogan Blasts Israel at Davos

“When it comes to killing, you know well how to kill,” Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan told Shimon Peres, the President of Israel at a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland today. “Mr. Peres, you are older than me,” he said. “Your voice comes out in a very high tone. And the high tone of your voice has to do with a guilty conscience. My voice, however, will not come out in the same tone', Erdogan added before walking out of the stage. Leaving the conference, Mr. Erdogan said, “And so Davos is over for me from now on.”

Mr. Erdogan was dismayed at the applause for Mr. Peres by the Israeli supporters at Davos. "I find it very sad that people applaud what you said," Erdogan said. "You killed people. And I think that it is very wrong."

"You kill people," Erdogan told the 85-year-old Israeli leader. "I remember the children who died on beaches. I remember two former prime ministers who said they felt very happy when they were able to enter Palestine on tanks."

"I did not target at all in any way the Israeli people, President Peres, or the Jewish people," Erdogan told a news conference afterward.

"I am a prime minister, a leader who has specifically expressly stated that anti-Semitism is a crime against humanity," he said.

In a news conference immediately after the panel discussion, Mr. Erdogan said he was particularly upset with the Washington Post's David Ignatius, the Jewish-American moderator, who he said had failed to direct a balanced and impartial panel, according to the New York Times.

Other panelists included UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Amr Moussa, the Arab League’s secretary general, joining Mr. Peres and Mr. Erdogan. Participants said Mr. Peres was mostly alone in defending Israel’s role in Gaza, and for that reason he was given the final 25 minutes to speak.

Upon his return to his home country, the Turkish leader was greeted by a jubilant crowd of more than 5,000 supporters, many waving Turkish and Palestinian flags, who flooded Istanbul's airport when his plane touched down about 2 a.m. Friday, Istanbul time.

This incident should be a wake-up call to the Israelis. After all, secular and "moderate" Turkey has been one of the few countries in its neighborhood having friendly relations with Israel.

Israel has been on the defensive as the reports of alleged war crimes have been trickling out of Israel since its recent Gaza offensive.

In one reported incident in Zeitoun, Gaza on January 4, where the frightened members of an extended family were hiding from Israeli bombardment and ground assault as Attiyah, 46, (husband) and Zinad Samouni, 35, (wife) mother of eight children opened the door, the Israeli soldiers in cold blood shot Attiyah dead and then went on a rampage to massacre the other members of the Samouni clan in this small hiding place.

“So far dozens of bodies, mostly women, children and elderly, have been recovered, almost all from the same extended family. The 48th corpse – horribly decomposed – was found on Monday but there are fears others lie under the rubble and soil churned up by Israeli armoured vehicles,” reported Tim Butcher of The Daily Telegraph of London. Navi Pillay, the UN Commissioner for Human Rights has already called for war crimes investigations against Israel for the massacre that took place in Zeitoun on January 4th and 5th.

Doctors at Al-Shifa hospital reported seeing unusual burns on their victims that most likely came from the use of white phosphorus against civilian targets in Gaza. The phosphorus burns get worse when water is poured on them, something the Palestinian doctors observed. Israel denies using phosphorous shells against people in Gaza, but at the same time Israel says it is investigating the allegations. Israeli government has announced the formation of a special legal team to defend Israeli soldiers against potential war crimes charges stemming from the recent three-week offensive in the Gaza Strip.

MSNBC cable channel is reporting that the Israeli move reflects growing concerns in Israel that officers could be subject to international prosecution for the large number of civilian deaths in Gaza, despite the army's claims that Hamas militants caused the casualties by staging attacks from residential areas.

The reported war crimes allegations against Israel must not be allowed to go un-investigated. Any attempt by Israel and its allies to resist independent investigations will be seen as cover up. If the investigations show evidence that war crimes have been committed, the Israeli soldiers and those who ordered this war must be brought to justice in an international criminal court. The US, UN and Europeans must pursue this process honestly with the same vigor as they did with the perpetrators in Germany, Yugoslavia and Rwanda.

Here's a video of Prime Minister Erdogan speaking at Davos:

Here's a video about Israeli behavior in Zeitun, Gaza: