Recently released HIES 2024-25 household integrated economic survey by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) raises more questions than it answers. For example, it shows that Pakistani households are buying lower amounts of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs in the last four years, implying that people are eating less to cover other expenses, like electricity and gas. But it doesn't explain why the households have reported significantly lower purchases of these items than production reported recently by the PBS. What is the source of this discrepancy? Is the data flawed? Or, is it missing a new trend toward less home cooking? Is the young urbanized population buying more prepared foods? Are they ordering out more often using ubiquitous food delivery services? Let us try and understand it in more detail.
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| 21% Pakistanis Buy Tandoori Nan. Source: Gallup Pakistan |
Data Discrepancy:
There is a significant discrepancy in household data for per capita monthly consumption of basic food ingredients like wheat, meat and eggs. For example, the HIES 2024-25 reports 6.59 Kg of wheat consumption per capita per month, which translates into 79 Kg per person per year. The wheat production data from PBS shows 30 million tons or 120 Kg per capita in 2025. We know that Pakistan did not export wheat last year. So what happened to the 41 Kg per capita difference? It is 30% of the total production reported, too large to be explained away as waste in the system. It was most probably bought by food businesses and eventually consumed by Pakistani households. There are similar discrepancies in meat, eggs and other food data, with reported household consumption being far below production.
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| Household Food Items Purchase Data. Source: HIES 2024-25 |
Prepared Foods:
A 2025 Gallup survey revealed that 21% of Pakistanis buy tandoori naan. Pakistan's prepared food market is experiencing robust growth, with the Convenience Food sector valued at $6.91 billion in 2025, projected to grow at 5% annually, driven by Ready-to-Eat (RTE) meals and frozen foods, especially RTE/RTC (Ready-to-Cook) products like frozen snacks. Key trends include rising demand for time-saving, convenient options due to urbanization, growing health consciousness (organic/natural), and dominance by flexible packaging, with online delivery also expanding rapidly.
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| Urbanization in Pakistan. Source: World Bank |
Urbanization:
The World Bank researchers have recently concluded that 88% live in urban areas. Their conclusion is based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanization (DoU) methodology. The official Pakistani figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the current level of urbanization at 39%. The source of this massive discrepancy is the government's reliance on administrative boundaries rather than population density and settlement patterns, according to the World Bank working research paper titled "When Does a Village Become a Town?".
Ultra-Processed Foods:
Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) like biscuits, sugary drinks, chips, and packaged snacks, are a growing concern in Pakistan. Such foods are contributing to rising obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Obesity causes non-communicable diseases (NCD) which are now among the leading causes of death in Pakistan.
To deal with the obeseity crisis, several Pakistani pharmaceutical companies have started domestic production of generic versions of GLP-1 (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1) drugs Ozempic/Wegovy (Semaglutide) and Mounjaro/Zeptide (Tirzepatide).
Food Delivery Services:
Pakistan's food delivery market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to hit $2.35 billion in 2025, driven by high smartphone penetration, a young urban population, and increased convenience-seeking, with Foodpanda dominating but facing a growing trend of direct restaurant ordering and a demand for diverse, tech-enabled options despite past economic challenges.
Street Food Growth:
With rising urbanization, the street food sector in Pakistan is vibrant and growing. It is crucial for livelihoods and affordable food. Deeply embedded in culture, choices range from savory samosas and chaat to bun kebabs, pakoras, pani puri, and biryani, popular for convenience and taste.
Fast Food Boom:
Pakistan’s fast food industry is experiencing rapid growth, making it the 8th largest fast food market globally. With a large consumer base, the demand for fast food continues to grow, contributing to the economy in significantly. The industry’s annual growth rate stands at 20%, highlighting its rapid expansion and increasing consumer preference for quick-serve meals.
Summary:
The HIES 2024-25 report recently issued by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics implies that Pakistani households are eating less to save money to pay for rising energy bills. I think this is misleading for two reasons: 1. It does not explain why reported household consumption figures are significantly lower than per capita production of these food items and 2. It completely ignores the impact of rapid urbanization that is causing Pakistanis to change their eating habits, such as consuming increasing amounts of prepared foods.
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24 comments:
Brofessor sb,
A part of the wheat production is also used up as seed and there is wastage as well, both because of mishandling and in conversion process- from wheat to flour, and from flour to bread. In addition, some wheat gets smuggled to Iran and Afghanistan. So the overall availability may be what the survey says.
Also, I am sure aware that Pakistan now ranks lower than IND on the Global Hunger Index especially after 2022 onwards.
Regards
This analysis makes sense. My own experience among DHA friends has been shift to premium grains like Oats, Quinoa, Pasta etc. And my mom’s shopping basket has seen dramatic reduction in wheat and eggs while fruits like Kiwi and blueberries are a staple. Reduction in milk is a surprise though. May be it’s being sold as milkshake on food panda?
Anon: "A part of the wheat production is also used up as seed and there is wastage as well, both because of mishandling and in conversion process- from wheat to flour, and from flour to bread. In addition, some wheat gets smuggled to Iran and Afghanistan. So the overall availability may be what the survey says"
The difference between 120 Kg wheat production per person and 79 Kg household consumption per capita is too large to be explained the way you suggest it. It's 33%. Other data from private sources like Gallup shows that prepared food consumption (as opposed to home cooking) is rising significantly among Pakistanis, particularly among the urban youth. Anecdotal evidence also supports it with vibrant and growing street food and fast food sectors. The urbanization trend is driving it.
Annon,
"Also, I am sure aware that Pakistan now ranks lower than IND on the Global Hunger Index especially after 2022 onwards.".
Thanks for the info.
Now, please enlighten the readers about happiness index, gini index, racism index, suicide rate and average IQ levels too.
Also, please let us know how many were lynched in India today (vs Pakistan).
G. Ali
2-5% of saving into seed bank for next season is very normal for small farmers. Another 2-5% in wastage is normal during storage, transport etc.
G Ali sb
Now, please enlighten the readers about happiness index, gini index, racism index, suicide rate and average IQ levels too.
Well I specialise in those indices where India does better than Pak such as HDI, MDPI, GDP etc. The indices where PAK fares better than IND are Brofessor sb's domain. You can ask him please.
Regards
Annon, in other words you are a typical Indian.
G. Ali
G Ali,
"Annon, in other words you are a typical Indian."
Do you mean "typical Indians" are sarcastic? Annon's reply here was clearly sarcasm/satire highlighting the irony of some Pakistanis selectively hyping some index or ranking where India scored worse than Pakistan while remaining mum about those where Pakistan fared worse than India.
In social development indicators both India and Pakistan are equally underperformers. The difference I see is mostly in the sphere of economy where India's economic management (atleast post-1991) seems to have been more prudent in comparison to Pakistan's which is why you don't see India running to IMF to every few years for a bailout.
Vineeth, typical Indians are jealous and insecure.
And please don't start another idiotic, irrelevant argument.
G. Ali
G Ali,
- "typical Indians are jealous and insecure."
This is exactly what we call "prejudice" or "stereotype". What exactly do you mean by "typical" Indians here? Are there such things as "typical" Indians or "typical" Pakistanis? These are countries with hundreds of millions of people (in India's case, over 1400 million) who belong to a variety of ethnicities, speak a variety of languages, and who hold a variety of attitudes and perspectives - in some cases cultural, in other cases personal. What's "typical" here?
- "And please don't start another idiotic, irrelevant argument."
Do you realize your words betray your own insecurity? You wouldn't be able to explain why my arguments are "idiotic" or "irrelevant", so you simply label them so with no reasoning or justification and dismiss them out of hand.
Vineeth,
So be it.
G. Ali
Nestle announces $60m additional investment in Pakistan, to expand operations in country
https://www.dawn.com/news/1968435
Nestle on Thursday announced that it would invest an additional $60 million in Pakistan and would also “undertake a robust expansion of its operations in the country”.
The development came as Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met Remy Ejel, the executive vice president and chief executive officer for Asia, Oceania, and Africa at Nestle, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, according to a statement issued by the finance ministry.
https://x.com/kschehzad/status/2014290099211751513?s=20
The ministry said Aurangzeb chaired a high-level business roundtable on the sidelines of the WEF, bringing together chief executive officers and senior leaders of leading global corporations to discuss Pakistan’s reform trajectory, investment climate, and long-term growth potential.
“The roundtable formed part of the government of Pakistan’s ongoing engagement with multinational investors to promote policy predictability, economic formalisation, and sustainable, export-oriented growth,” it said.
“A major highlight of the discussion was the announcement by Ejel … of an additional investment of $60 million in Pakistan. Ejel stated that Nestle will undertake a robust expansion of its operations in the country, reaffirming its long-term commitment to Pakistan,” the statement said.
“He further announced that Nestle intends to use Pakistan as a regional manufacturing and export hub, exporting products to 26 countries from Pakistan. Expressing strong confidence in Pakistan’s economic outlook, Ejel foresaw robust growth in Nestle’s business in Pakistan in the coming years,” the statement said.
According to the finance ministry, the announcement builds on the company’s recent engagement with the minister in Islamabad, where the company had “outlined its strategy centered on localisation, advanced manufacturing, sustainability, and agricultural transformation”.
The statement further said that Ejal noted that Pakistan’s demographic profile, growing nutrition needs, and underpenetrated value-added food segments closely mirrored successful growth trajectories seen in Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, Aurangzeb welcomed the announcement and described it as a “strong vote of confidence in Pakistan’s economic reforms and formalisation drive”.
“He reaffirmed the government’s commitment to strengthening the tax ecosystem, ensuring policy consistency, and facilitating responsible long-term investment through continued engagement with the private sector, including via the Tax Policy Office established within the Finance Division,” the statement said.
The minister also emphasised that Pakistan offered compelling opportunities in affordable nutrition, climate-resilient dairy, localised sourcing, and export-oriented manufacturing, and reiterated the government’s resolve to position Pakistan as a competitive base for regional production and global value chains.
Azerbaijan’s Socar signals investment in Pakistan’s oil and gas sector
A separate handout by the ministry said that following the high-level business roundtable chaired by Aurangzeb, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Socar) announced that it was set to finalise its investment in Pakistan’s oil and gas sector in February.
https://x.com/Financegovpk/status/2014294512278048786?s=20
The announcement was made by Socar’s president, Rovshan Najaf, during the roundtable, the statement said.
Socar viewed Pakistan as a natural long-term energy partner, pointing to the country’s market depth, rising energy demand, and reform momentum in the oil and gas sector, the statement quoted him as saying.
He added that Socar’s planned investment would build on its existing commercial footprint in Pakistan and expand cooperation across the energy value chain, it said.
He noted that the company was already in a commercial engagement in Pakistan through Socar Trading, providing Pakistan with flexible liquefied natural gas arrangements.
Sowing the Seeds of Better Nutrition in Pakistan
https://unsdg.un.org/latest/stories/sowing-seeds-better-nutrition-pakistan
Cultivating a Different Future
Immediate action on four tracks could transform Pakistan’s approach. First, create incentives for dietary diversity. Rather than privileging a narrow set of staple crops, policy should support the production and affordability of nutrient-dense foods such as fruits, vegetables, pulses and, where appropriate, animal-source foods, without undermining price stability.
Second, reduce food loss and waste. Cutting post-harvest losses in the agri-food industry, estimated at 20 to 40 per cent, may be the fastest way to expand the effective supply of nutritious foods without requiring more land or water.
Third, build awareness and a strong political and social constituency for healthy diets. Until citizens demand better nutrition and leaders see electoral value in delivering it, progress will be slow. In this spirit, the UN and partners reached over 2.9 million mothers and caregivers with nutrition messages in 2024.
Fourth, use fiscal policy to make healthy choices easier. A nutrition-first agenda cannot rely on messaging alone; it requires coherent taxation, subsidies and public procurement that shift relative prices and incentives, including reviewing commodity support, assessing the health impact of food taxes, and using targeted social protection to improve access to diverse diets.
Pakistan has spent decades asking: do we have enough wheat? The more urgent question today is: can families afford and access enough good food? A food system that reliably delivers healthy diets is not a luxury agenda. It is economic policy, resilience policy and ultimately, nation-building.
Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
On January 20, 2022, Pakistan's GDP grew by Rs 8.1 trillion overnight. Not a single factory opened. Not a single additional tax was collected. Public debt, frozen at Rs 39.9 trillion, did not change by a single rupee. But the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 83.5% to 71.8%, instantly.
This is a thread about the institution behind that number, and why it urgently needs to be better funded
https://x.com/ZehraFarooq/status/2070915475232702960?s=20
Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
On January 20, 2022, Pakistan's GDP grew by Rs 8.1 trillion overnight. Not a single factory opened. Not a single additional tax was collected. Public debt, frozen at Rs 39.9 trillion, did not change by a single rupee. But the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 83.5% to 71.8%, instantly.
This is a thread about the institution behind that number, and why it urgently needs to be better funded
https://x.com/ZehraFarooq/status/2070915475232702960?s=20
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is the most consequential institution most Pakistanis never think about. It computes GDP, tracks inflation, counts us in the census, and tells us how many people are poor, what they earn, and how they spend.
Every IMF negotiation, every monetary policy decision, and every poverty programme in this country is built on PBS data. When the numbers are imprecise, so is the policy that follows from them.
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
This thread is built on seven consecutive years of official budget documents, Demands for Grants Vol. III, from FY2018-19 through FY2026-27, extracted line by line across all 35 PBS offices nationwide. The pattern you are about to see is not the story of a bad year or two. It is structural.
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Nine panels of seven years of data tell a consistent story. Total expenditure has grown from Rs 1.4 billion in FY19 to Rs 5.1 billion in FY27, which sounds like progress until you see that 71 paisa of every rupee still goes to salaries.
In FY23 that figure hit 91%, leaving nine paisa for everything else, travel, equipment, occupancy, and all operations combined. Travel as a share of the employee budget has never exceeded 14% in any year across this entire dataset. In FY23 it fell to 1.9%.
The institution doubled in nominal budget and remained structurally unable to sustain the fieldwork its mandate requires.
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Budget 2026-27 allocates PBS a total of Rs 5.41 billion to run 35 offices and maintain 3,364 sanctioned posts. Of that, Rs 3.62 billion, 71%, goes to salaries and allowances before a single enumerator steps into the field.
The travel and transport budget, which funds all field data collection across the entire country, stands at Rs 298 million. The computer equipment maintenance budget is Rs 12 million. The capital investment budget for new equipment is zero.
PBS runs CPI from 35 cities, SPI from 17 cities every week, a quarterly Labour Force Survey, national accounts, and multiple sectoral data exercises on these allocations. This is a payroll that has been structured to look like a statistical agency.
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Going back to January 20, 2022 when Pakistan rebased its national accounts, updating the reference year from 2005-06 to 2015-16.
Note that rebasing is standard and necessary practice, the IMF recommends doing it every five years, and Pakistan's base year was long overdue for an update.
The mechanics are straightforward: rebasing recalculates the economy's structure using more recent prices and broader sectoral coverage. The problem is that Pakistan lacked the underlying surveys to do it rigorously. There was no new livestock census, and no establishment survey adequately covering the informal sector.
The result was that GDP for FY2020-21 jumped from Rs 47.4 trillion to Rs 55.5 trillion overnight, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 83.5% to 71.8% without a single rupee of debt being repaid, the FBR tax-to-GDP ratio worsened from 9.6% to 8.5% because the denominator grew, and the FY21 growth rate was revised upward from 3.9% to 5.37%.
Nothing changed in the economy except for the measurement.
Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Had Pakistan never rebased in 2022, GDP in FY26 would read roughly Rs 108 trillion on the old methodology.
The official figure is Rs 126.9 trillion. That Rs 18.5 trillion gap is not real economic output, it is methodological uplift, and once embedded in the denominator, it automatically improves every ratio a government cares about. The sitting government at the time revised the FY21 growth rate from 3.9% to 5.37% overnight. Political fortunes and statistical choices were, as ever, deeply entangled.
https://x.com/ZehraFarooq/status/2070916736598303173?s=20
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Legitimate concerns were raised about the quality of the 2022 rebasing. The livestock sector increased 18% at the base year without a livestock census to justify it. The construction sector was likely overstated by over 30% relative to available cement output data. The electricity sector showed a 75% jump in value added despite a circular debt crisis that implies distribution losses, not gains.
To be clear, I am not making an argument against rebasing — it is an argument for doing it properly, which requires better underlying surveys, which requires investing in
@PBSofficialpak
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
An here is more evidence of why: in FY2022-23, Pakistan's CPI averaged 29.2%, the highest since the 1970s. The State Bank used that number to set interest rates, the government used it for wage indexation, and the IMF used it for programme conditionality. In that same year, PBS had Rs 43 million to fund all field travel across all 35 offices for every survey it runs.
A back-of-envelope calculation makes the problem concrete: CPI collection across 35 cities, done to minimum international standards, requires roughly Rs 80 to 100 million in annual transport costs alone. Add the weekly SPI across 17 cities and the quarterly Labour Force Survey, and you are well past Rs 200 million before anything else is funded.
At Rs 43 million, the numbers do not add up. Something was cut, and the quality of Pakistan's most cited economic indicators in its worst inflation year in a generation was the consequence.
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
There is more: the HIES — the Household Integrated Economic Survey, which is Pakistan's only reliable source of poverty measurement, consumption data, and income distribution, was not fielded for six years.
It was last conducted in 2018-19 and completed again only in 2024-25.
Those six years encompassed the COVID income collapse, catastrophic floods, 29% inflation, a near-default, and the largest real wage contraction in a generation. Pakistan has no direct distributional evidence of any of it. The CPI basket still reflects 2015-16 consumption patterns. The World Bank estimated that roughly 9 million Pakistanis fell below the poverty line in 2022 alone.
Pakistan had no domestic survey data to verify, challenge, or refine that number.
Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
Budget 2026-27 allocates PBS Rs 5.41 billion to measure and report the statistics of a Rs 126.9 trillion economy. That is less than 0.004% of the GDP it is responsible for measuring.
India's NSO operates at roughly ten times Pakistan's relative statistical spend as a share of GDP. Even Bangladesh's statistical bureau receives comparable proportional funding.
Pakistan is asking its statistical agency
@PBSofficialpak
to run a 240-million-person economy's data infrastructure on the annual budget of a mid-sized university department, and then making consequential decisions about taxation, energy pricing, and social protection based on what that agency is able to produce.
https://x.com/ZehraFarooq/status/2070917509218554201?s=20
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Zehra Farooq
@ZehraFarooq
The ask is not complicated.
Field the HIES on its original biennial cycle and protect that budget line from being crowded out when the next census comes. Increase operational and transport allocations to what surveys actually cost when done to international standards. Rebase the national accounts with proper underlying survey infrastructure so the numbers reflect the economy rather than a methodology change.
And invest in PBS's institutional capacity before the next macro crisis makes the data gaps visible again, by which point it will already be too late. Pakistan cannot run a data-driven state, make an honest case for its own economic performance, or design reforms that reach the people they are meant to reach, without a properly funded statistical system. Budget 2026-27 gives PBS Rs 5.41 billion.
The conversation that funding either enables or forecloses is worth considerably more - we need to measure before we govern.
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Foodpanda to double Pakistan operations in three years, eyes $2 billion economic activity
https://www.arabnews.pk/pakistan/foodpanda-to-double-pakistan-operations-in-three-years-eyes-2-billion-economic-activity-2612269
KARACHI: Food and grocery delivery service foodpanda Pakistan plans to double its operations in the country within the next three years, aiming to expand from six million to as many as 12 million households and generate $2 billion in economic activity this fiscal year, CEO Muntaqa Peracha has said.
Foodpanda is a subsidiary of Berlin-based Delivery Hero, which operates in more than 70 countries. The company generated $1.2 billion in economic activity in FY24 and now connects millions of users in 35 Pakistani cities with restaurants, home chefs, and its own pandamart grocery stores. It engages thousands of freelance riders and handles up to 20% of the total food business for its restaurant partners.
“Now that we’re at that point and the economy looks relatively stable we’re hoping to further accelerate that to get to a point of doubling our business over the next, you know, 24 to 36 months,” Peracha told Arab News in a recent interview.
Pakistan, with a population of over 240 million and mobile penetration exceeding 80 percent, has seen rapid expansion in digital commerce. The country’s e-commerce market — projected by Statista to grow at over 8 percent annually for the next five years — is driven by a tech-savvy youth demographic and increasing female participation. The online food delivery segment alone is expected to generate $2.35 billion in revenue by December 2025, while grocery delivery is projected to expand by 19 percent in 2026, according to Statista.
Pakistan’s food and grocery delivery space remains underpenetrated relative to regional peers, presenting opportunities for scale.
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Pakistan's restaurant and fast-food sector is expanding at an annual rate of 20%, making food processing the second-largest industry in the country after textiles.Key Growth DriversQuick Service Restaurants (QSRs): Compact QSR formats (300–800 sq. ft.) with tight, focused menus are outperforming traditional casual dining due to lower overhead and high demand. Local disruptors like Cheezious have scaled to over 45 branches by tailoring portions, pricing, and marketing to local tastes.Digital Delivery & Cloud Kitchens: Platforms like Foodpanda operate across dozens of cities, while delivery-only cloud kitchens help operators mitigate high real-estate costs and reduce capital risk.International Expansion: Major brands continue to invest; for instance, Subway Pakistan announced plans to triple its local footprint by opening over 200 new restaurants.Supply Chain & B2B Enablers: Users on LinkedIn share a consensus that supporting the ecosystem—such as supplying raw materials or providing specialized tech and marketing—offers high growth with lower operational risk than opening storefronts directly.
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Only 18% Pakistanis Report Ordering Food Online in the Past Week; Usage Higher Among FA+ Educated (46%) and Younger Respondents (22%) — Gallup & Gilani Survey
(Islamabad), 30th April 2026
According to a survey conducted by Gallup & Gilani Pakistan, only 18% of Pakistanis report ordering food at home from Food Panda or another delivery service in the past week, while a large majority (72%) say they did not use such services.
A nationally representative sample of adult Pakistanis from across the country was asked the question: “Please tell us, in the past week, have you engaged in any of the following activities? – Ordered food at home from Food Panda or another delivery service?”. In response, 18% of respondents said they had ordered food online in the past week, while 72% said they had not. The remaining 10% fell into the Don’t Know/No Response (DK/NR) category.
These findings indicate that while food delivery platforms are increasingly visible in Pakistan, their use remains limited, with fewer than one in five Pakistanis reporting recent usage.
https://www.gallup.com.pk/post/39895
The Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market in Pakistan is expanding rapidly at an annual rate of 20% to 21%. [1] (https://www.scribd.com/document/441347539/Introduction-of-Fast-foods), [2] (https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/pakistans-fast-food-boom/)Market Overview & Growth DriversGlobal Standing: Pakistan is the 8th largest fast-food market globally, supported by a consumer base of over 180 million people.Urbanization & Income: Rising disposable incomes, changing lifestyles, and rapid urban growth fuel the boom.Compact Formats: Smaller 300–800 sq. ft. QSR layouts with focused menus (8–12 core items) are outperforming large traditional casual dining spaces due to lower overhead and faster turnaround. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pakistans-restaurant-industry-quietly-rebuilding-itself-shahab-8xv4f), [2] (https://www.paradigmshift.com.pk/pakistans-fast-food-boom/)Key Players & ScaleMarket Leader: KFC Pakistan has grown into the country's largest food chain by annual revenue, crossing $500 million in sales, with a footprint well over 115 stores. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/abmajid_if-we-look-at-the-numbers-objectively-activity-7432958018935365632-gNJk), [2] (https://www.facebook.com/StartupPakistanRecorder/posts/kfc-continues-to-dominate-pakistans-fast-food-scene-remaining-the-undisputed-lea/1069662538764050/)New Entrants: International and regional players continue to enter, including Middle Eastern burger chain Salt expanding into the Pakistani market. [1] (https://qsrmedia.com/franchising/news/middle-east-burger-chain-salt-debut-in-pakistan)Operational Shift: Major brands are adopting advanced technology like Microsoft Dynamics ERP systems to manage supply chains and reduce waste. [1] (https://www.microsoft.com/en/customers/story/1466331889737500799-kfc-pakistan-consumer-goods-dynamics-365-en-pakistan)Menu & Economic RealitiesTop Ingredients: Chicken appears in 29% of QSR menu items, making it the most-used protein, followed by cheese, vegetables, and beef. [1] (https://www.verdictfoodservice.com/data-insights/pakistan-qsr-menu-analysis/)Average Spending: Local consumers spend a notable portion of their income on food, with typical fast-food bill values ranging from PKR 650 to PKR 1,200 depending on the city. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/qsr-industry-pakistan-afra-siab), [2] (https://www.scribd.com/document/441347539/Introduction-of-Fast-foods), [3] (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pakistans-restaurant-industry-quietly-rebuilding-itself-shahab-8xv4f)Current Challenges: The Pakistan QSR Industry faces hurdles like talent shortages in hospitality alongside rising operational and real estate costs. [1] (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/muhammad-mujtaba-haider-92268129_qsr-hospitality-pakistan-activity-7486673263931056128-3Jnj)
The recent World Bank Report titled “ Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity
Pakistan's Poverty, Equity, and Resilience Assessment” uses data data from Household Integrated Economic Survey HIES 2018.
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099091525013042836/pdf/P175093-d60dd368-43f0-48b3-abd3-eb0e4af49ef9.pdf
Box 1.1 Poverty Measurement in Pakistan
Poverty measurement in Pakistan is based on data from the Household
Integrated Economic Survey (HIES, also named Pakistan Integrated Household
Survey (PIHS) and Household Integrated Income and Consumption Survey
(HIICS) in some years). There are nine waves of comparable HIES survey
rounds currently available between 2001 and 2018:
HIES 2004–05
HIES 2010–11
HIICS 2015–16
PIHS 2001–02
HIES 2007–08
HIES 2013–14
HIES 2005–06
HIES 2011–12
HIES 2018–19
The Household Integrated Income and Consumption (HIICS) 2015–16 was a
special HIES survey with the additional objective of obtaining weights for the
rebasing of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI). For this purpose, it had a more
disaggregated set of items in the consumption module and a larger urban
sample. The HIES 2018–19 was the first survey to use a new sampling frame
based on the Housing and Population Census 2017, and to include the newly
merged areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), previously known as the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This poses some concerns for survey compa-
rability across time, but the overall trends remain robust to sensitivity checks
(see Box 1.3 for the specific case of KP province).
1 0 | R E C L A I M I N G M O M E N T U M T O W A R D S P R O S P E R I T YMethodology: The World Bank uses two separate measures of monetary pov-
erty. First, the Planning Commission has developed a poverty line specific to
Pakistan for official poverty measurement. This is used to inform policy design
and discourse at the national level. Second, the World Bank uses the interna-
tional poverty line for global poverty monitoring, currently expressed in 2021
PPP US$.
Official Poverty: In Pakistan, the welfare metric used to estimate poverty is
consumption per adult equivalent, spatially deflated to account for price dif-
ferences across regions. The food poverty line reflects the cost of consuming
2,350 calories per adult equivalent per day, and a total poverty line is esti-
mated to reflect the expenditure necessary to satisfy non-food needs. The
Cost-of-Basic-Needs (CBN) poverty line estimated based on 2013–14 data was
set at PKR 3,030 per adult equivalent per month (or PKR 8,231 in 2024 prices).
All estimates provided in this note are based on the official measure of pov-
erty, unless otherwise mentioned.
International Poverty: For international poverty measurement and
cross-country comparisons, the welfare metric used is consumption per cap-
ita, adjusted to 2021 PPP US$. There are three poverty lines currently in use:
(i) the International Poverty Line of US$3.00 a day, which defines the extreme
poverty rate; (ii) the Lower Middle-Income Class Poverty Line of US$4.20 a
day; and (iii) the Upper Middle-Income Class Poverty Line of US$8.30 (each
expressed in 2021 PPP).
Since consumption survey data are not available beyond 2018, all poverty
estimates reported for later years are projections based on World Bank micro-
simulations. Details of the methodology are presented in Appendix A3.
Street food in Pakistan is experiencing rapid economic growth, formalization, and urban expansion, driven by urbanization and a massive informal food sector. Food and Agriculture Organization +1
Economic Scale & Impact
• Market Value: The Pakistani street food and informal food sector is valued at $5 to $6 billion, while the broader informal economy reaches roughly $450 billion. Frontiers +1
• Employment: Street vendors and informal food workers employ around 2.5 million people nationwide, with Karachi alone generating PKR 45 billion annually. ResearchGate
• Affordability: Snacks and meals range from $0.30 to $1.25 (80 to 350 PKR) for items like bun kebabs, samosas, and chaat, making them essential for urban middle- and lower-income households. Food and Agriculture Organization +1
Infrastructure & Formalization
• Dedicated Food Streets: Cities are actively investing in pedestrianized, organized food streets to boost night-time economies and tourism. Recent developments include a 39-shop food street project in Okara (costing PKR 800 million) and modernizations in Peshawar’s Chowk Yadgar, Sindhi Muslim in Karachi, and Lahore's Fort Road Food Street. Facebook·Tribune Trends +1
• Vendor Schemes: Local governments (such as in Punjab) have begun introducing standardized model handcarts and licensing initiatives to provide street vendors with legal recognition, clean infrastructure, and protection from harassment. YouTube·DawnNews English
Popular Items & Modern Trends
• Staple Favorites: BBQ items account for roughly 25% of street food consumption, followed by biryani and pulao (18%), and burgers or bun kebabs (15%). Classic snacks include gol gappay, pakoras, samosas, and jalebi. Google Arts & Culture +2
• Fusion Innovations: Urban centers and digital creators are popularizing modern fusion twists—such as chaat tacos, pizza burgers, and matka biryani—alongside traditional probiotic and fermented options like lassi, achar, and kanji.
Is Pakistan poultry industry (2nd largest after textiles) part of its informal economy?
Yes, a significant portion of Pakistan's poultry industry operates within the informal (or unorganized) economy, though it also contains a modern, organized corporate segment. [1, 2]
Key Characteristics of the Sector
Unorganized Marketing Channels: The majority of broiler and egg marketing channels operate in the unorganized or informal sector, accounting for a large share of daily sales. [1, 2]
Slaughter and Processing: Only 5% to 6% of poultry slaughterhouses, processing, and value-addition activities take place within the organized sector. Most live birds are sold through local wet markets and uncertified neighborhood shops. [1]
Tax and Regulatory Reach: Much of the informal poultry network operates outside the formal tax net and strict regulatory frameworks, which contributes to local price volatility and supply shocks. [1]
Micro and Household Scale: A substantial amount of small-scale animal farming and poultry rearing occurs at the household level, representing a core part of informal rural livelihoods and home-based economic activities. [1]
The Organized Side: Alongside the informal market, Pakistan has a multi-billion-rupee commercial foundation with large, vertically integrated corporations (such as K&N’s, Sabroso, Big Bird, and Sufi Foods) that manage modern feed mills, hatcheries, and controlled-environment farms. [1, 2]
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Pakistan's poultry industry is the country's second-largest industry after textiles, functioning as a vital source of affordable animal protein and employment.
Key Statistics & Production
• Global Rank: Pakistan is the 11th-largest poultry producer in the world.
• Output: Produces approximately 2.5 billion kg of poultry meat and over 26–28 billion eggs annually.
• Employment: Supports and employs around 1.5 million families nationwide.
• GDP Contribution: Contributes roughly 1.3% to 1.5% to the national GDP and a major share of agricultural value-added.
• Meat Share: Poultry makes up over 40% of Pakistan's total meat production.
Structure & Operations
• Integration: Dominated by commercial feed mills, hatcheries, breeding farms, and broiler/layer operations with strong vertical integration.
• Housing: The vast majority of commercial broiler farming (97–98%) uses modern, environmentally controlled housing rather than open-sided sheds.
• Growth Rate: The sector has expanded at an average annual growth rate of roughly 8.1% over the past decade.
Core Challenges
• High Feed & Input Costs: Volatility in global grain and feed ingredient prices directly spikes local production costs.
• Disease Management: Susceptibility to outbreaks like Avian Influenza (H5N1, H7N3, H9N2), Gumboro, and Hydropericardium Syndrome (HPS).
• Export Deficit: Despite massive domestic output, poultry exports remain low (estimated between $4 million and $24 million), constrained by cold-chain logistics, sanitary standards, and international compliance gaps.
• Price Fluctuations: Retail chicken and egg prices experience sharp seasonal and feed-driven swings.
The Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) market in Pakistan is growing at an annual rate of 15% to 20%, ranking as the 8th largest fast-food market globally with an estimated 180 million consumers.
Key Market Metrics & Performance
• Market Scale: Pakistan's food processing sector is the country's second-largest industry overall, and fast food acts as a primary urban growth engine.
• Leading Brands: KFC dominates the landscape with annual sales exceeding $500 million (approx. 14,000 crore PKR). Other major international and local players include McDonald's Pakistan (managed by Lakson Group/Siza Foods with 53+ locations), Tim Hortons (expanding rapidly across Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities), Burger O'Clock, OPTP, and Kababjees Group.
• Menu Trends: Chicken remains the top ingredient (featured in 29% of QSR menu items), while compact, high-efficiency store formats (300–800 sq. ft.) with streamlined menus are outperforming traditional casual dining.
• Pricing & Economics: Average menu prices in the QSR channel dropped slightly by about 2.58% amid broader economic adjustments, even as real GDP grew by 3.70% in FY 2026.
Growth Drivers
• Urbanization & Demographics: A young, brand-aware urban population increasingly favors fast, convenient, and halal-friendly dining options.
• Digitization & Delivery: High reliance on online ordering platforms, digital signage, and direct-to-consumer app tech is reshaping how kitchens handle peak-hour demand.
• Operational Shifts: Brands are moving away from bloated menus toward standardized, high-margin items like fried chicken, wraps, and specialty coffee.
Main Industry Challenges
• High Attrition: Frontline employee and rider turnover rates frequently exceed 130% to 150% annually.
• Platform Dependence: Heavy reliance on third-party delivery aggregators strains profit margins and limits direct customer data ownership.
• Supply Chain & Inflation: Managing consistent ingredient quality, energy/LPG costs, and strict operational standards requires heavy systemic investment.
UK-Backed Digital Eye System Expands Tax Monitoring Across Pakistan's Cement Industry - News and Statistics - IndexBox
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-tax-monitoring-across-pakistans-cement-industry
Production at every one of Pakistan's 27 cement plants is now being monitored through the Digital Eye system, which assists the Federal Board of Revenue in tightening tax compliance and boosting revenue for public services. Initially trialled during 2023, the platform relies on sophisticated video analytics to watch manufacturing lines continuously, giving both plants and the FBR an independent account of output. Operating in tandem with the FBR's Track and Trace System, it affords tax officials clearer insight into production volumes while cutting back on manual checks and paperwork. Senior FBR officials joined British High Commissioner Jane Marriott at Fecto Cement to witness the technology in action. The group walked the production line, watched the monitoring setup and heard a briefing on how the tool underpins tax administration reforms. Marriott, who holds the CMG and OBE honours, remarked that Digital Eye exemplifies UK-Pakistan collaboration producing tangible results. She highlighted that the system was created in Pakistan and is now run across the country by the FBR, illustrating how innovation can be expanded to reinforce tax compliance, encourage fair competition and enhance transparency. She added that the UK takes pride in having backed that effort via technical know-how while assisting in building the institutional capacity required to maintain it. Dr. Najeeb Ullah, the FBR's Chief of Reforms and Modernisation, stated that the outcomes are self-evident. He observed that live production tracking has already bolstered compliance in cement and sugar without placing extra strain on taxpayers who comply. He said the current priority is to solidify existing gains, sharpen accuracy, strengthen the skills of internal teams and broaden the system into additional industries. Ullah noted that reliable production figures shield businesses that report truthfully, and he thanked the UK for its technical assistance via REMIT, adding that the FBR intends to carry this method into more sectors. A Pakistani technology firm built the solution, which was piloted, honed and then deployed nationally with UK technical assistance. The initiative showcases how Pakistani ingenuity can be brought to scale through global partnership to achieve reforms at a countrywide level. Interest in the technology and the broader reform it supports is also emerging from nations throughout Africa, which are examining Pakistan's approach for guidance on updating tax compliance. The system works in parallel with the FBR's Track and Trace System. Whereas Track and Trace logs items departing the production line, Digital Eye separately observes manufacturing via AI-driven video analytics, enabling both systems to be verified against each other and boosting trust in declared output. UK assistance has additionally enabled the FBR to develop the capacity to run, service and advance the system on its own. What started as a trial has grown into a national system spanning all 27 cement factories in Pakistan and has been broadened to sugar. Additional plans exist to widen the method to other sectors. Pakistan's government has reported that wider reforms aided in recovering Rs 32 billion from cement and lifted recorded sugar production by 31% in the latest crushing season. These outcomes stem from various policy and compliance steps, with Digital Eye being one component.
Please mention the Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-backed-digital-eye-system-expands-tax-monitoring-across-pakistans-cement-industry/
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