Pakistan imported an estimated 1.25 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of lithium-ion battery packs in 2024 and another 400 megawatt-hours (MWh) in the first two months of 2025, according to a research report by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The report projects these imports to reach 8.75 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030. Using 5.2 hours per day of peak sunlight translates into 1,898 hours per year. It means that each gigawatt of installed solar capacity can produce up to 1.8 terawatt-hours of electricity in a year, and each gigawatt-hour of battery capacity can store up to 1.8 terawatt-hours of electricity over a year. Currently, Pakistanis consume about 110 terawatt-hours of energy from the grid in a year.
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| Battery Storage Growth in Pakistan. Source: IEEFA |
Chinese battery packs have become particularly affordable with rapidly declining prices due to falling raw material costs, overcapacity in manufacturing, and increased production efficiency. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries have become the most affordable packs, with prices at $75 per kilowatt-hour as of last year, according to Statista.
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| Pakistan Leads in Solar Generation Mix. Source: Reuters |
Pakistan is investing in battery storage projects to improve grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and reduce reliance on traditional power sources. These projects are being developed by both public and private entities, with significant funding from international organizations like the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
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| Home With Rooftop Solar Panels and Battery Storage |
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| Daily Charge-Discharge Cycle For A Home With Solar Panels and Battery Storage |
While negatively impacting demand for grid electricity in the short term, the increasing use of battery storage solutions by rooftop solar consumers will likely improve grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Here's how the IEEFA report explains it:
"The grid should adapt to changing consumer dynamics and increasing adoption of alternative energy sources. BESS (Battery Energy Storage Solutions) has inherent peak shaving abilities, which could work to the grid’s advantage and result in cost savings by reducing centralized generation. As more distributed solar systems operate, the grid is already experiencing peak-demand shifting. Consumers with solar PV installations defect from the grid during the day but reappear during the night, leading to declining minimum demand during the day but a rising peak demand during the evening (known as the duck curve). Daytime demand is expected to decrease even further if rapid solarization continues, which may jeopardize system stability. Instances of extremely low demand, such as during holidays, may cause utilities to trip, leading to the risk of grid failure. Conversely, the surge in evening peak requires a quick rampup of fossil fuel-based power generation".
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| Pakistan's Solar Imports. Source: Reuters |
Battery packs are the most expensive components of electric vehicles today. Lower battery pack prices will make electric vehicles more affordable, leading to wider adoption and lower transport emissions. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Pakistan is pushing to grow electric vehicle adoption. The country’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) policy for 2025–2030 targets 30% of all new vehicles to be electric by 2030, rising to 90% by 2040.
Pakistan has contributed only 0.28% of the CO2 emissions but it is among the biggest victims of climate change. The US, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
South Asia Investor Review
Solar Power Boom in Pakistan
Pakistan Electric Vehicle Policy
Nuclear Power in Pakistan
Can Urban Forests Beat the Heat in Pakistani Cities
Pakistan's Response to Climate Change
IPP Contacts Bankrupting Pakistan
Earth Day: Pakistan's Progress Toward Clean Energy
Net Metering in Pakistan
Pakistan's Digital Public Infrastructure Transforming Lives
My Family's Contribution to Climate Action
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
Ownership of Appliances and Vehicles in Pakistan
CPEC Transforming Pakistan
Pakistan's $20 Billion Tourism Industry Boom
Riaz Haq's YouTube Channel
PakAlumni Social Network
23 comments:
Pakistan to Add Over 2,600 MW Through Solar Net Metering in FY2025–26
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2550583/solar-net-metering-to-add-over-2600-mw#:~:text=Pakistan%20is%20likely%20to%20add,upcoming%20fiscal%20year%202025%2D26.
The number of net metering consumers is also expected to grow by 197,655, contributing to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator through increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption and supporting grid stability.
At that point, the generation mix is projected to comprise approximately 50.5% from renewable sources (including hydel, solar, solar net metering, wind and bagasse) and 49.5% from thermal sources (such as coal, gas, re-gasified liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear).
The power sector will receive a public investment of Rs161,635 million from the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) of FY26, including government-budgeted/self-finance projects of power companies, excluding independent power producers (IPPs).
The government plans to execute 63 projects.
These investments will contribute directly to the achievement of SDGs through distribution and transmission projects aimed at increasing access to electricity and through power generation projects by enhancing the share of renewable energy.
By the end of June 2026, the transmission sector will be boosted by an additional capacity of 5,550, 4,710 and 1,300 MVA on 500-kilovolt, 220kV and high-voltage, direct-current (HVDC) grids, respectively.
These transmission lines will be extended by 170 km (500kV), 355 km (220kV) and 137 km (±660kV). Additionally, one new grid station will be established at the 765kV level and two at the 220kV level.
To increase the proportion of population having access to electricity, the targeted investment in power distribution will lead to the electrification of 15,352 villages and the addition of 1.861 million new consumer connections during FY26.
These efforts will directly expand electricity access across urban and rural areas.
——————-+
Pakistan to Add Over 2,600 MW Through Solar Net Metering in FY2025–26
Pakistan is making a big leap in renewable energy. According to the Annual Plan 2025–26, 2,800 megawatts will be added to the grid next year, 2,633 MW of which will come from solar net metering.
This shift highlights growing public participation in clean energy production, despite an already surplus generation capacity.
Pakistan's solar surge lifts it into rarefied 25% club
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/pakistans-solar-surge-lifts-it-into-rarefied-25-club-2025-06-17/
(Reuters) - Pakistan is rapidly emerging as a key leader in solar power deployment, and not just within emerging economies.
The South Asian country has boosted solar electricity generation by over three times the global average so far this year, fuelled by a more than fivefold rise in solar capacity imports since 2022, according to data from Ember.
That combination of rapidly rising capacity and generation has propelled solar power from Pakistan's fifth-largest electricity source in 2023 to its largest in 2025.
What's more, so far in 2025 solar power has accounted for 25% of Pakistan's utility-supplied electricity, which makes it one of fewer than 20 nations globally that have sourced a quarter or more of monthly electricity supplies from solar farms.
EXCLUSIVE CLUB
Over the first four months of 2025, solar farms generated an average of 25.3% of Pakistan's utility electricity supplies, Ember data shows.
That average compares with a solar share of 8% globally, around 11% in China, 8% in the United States and 7% in Europe.
And while the average solar shares in the Northern Hemisphere will climb steadily through the summer months, very few countries will even come close to securing a quarter of all utility electricity supplies from solar farms any time soon.
Indeed, only 17 countries have ever registered a 25% or more share of monthly utility electricity supplies from solar farms, according to Ember.
Those nations are: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Portugal and Spain.
That list is heavily skewed towards Europe, where the power sector shock from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked urgent and widespread power-sector reform and the rapid roll-out of renewable generation capacity.
ndeed, Australia and Chile are the only nations aside from Pakistan that are outside Europe, and all included nations boast a far higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita than Pakistan.
IMPORT DRIVE
The chief driver of Pakistan's solar surge has been an accelerating import binge of solar capacity modules from China.
Between 2022 and 2024, Pakistan's imports of China-made solar components jumped fivefold from around 3,500 megawatts (MW) to a record 16,600 MW, according to Ember.
Pakistan's share of China's total solar module exports also rose sharply, from 2% in 2022 to nearly 7% in 2024.
And that import binge has continued into 2025.
Over the first four months of the year, Pakistan imported just over 10,000 MW of solar components from China, compared with around 8,500 MW during the same period in 2024.
That rise of nearly 18% in imported capacity has lifted Pakistan's share of China's solar exports to new highs too, with Pakistan accounting for around 12% of all of China's solar exports so far this year.
SOLAR-CENTRIC
The frantic deployment of imported solar modules across Pakistan in recent years has upended the country's electricity generation mix.
So far in 2025, solar is by far the single largest source of electricity, followed by natural gas, nuclear reactors, coal plants and hydro dams.
Pakistan's solar surge lifts it into rarefied 25% club
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/pakistans-solar-surge-lifts-it-into-rarefied-25-club-2025-06-17/
As solar farms were the fifth-largest supply source for electricity just two years ago, solar's pre-eminence so far this marks a sharp swing towards renewables within the country's utility network.
In addition, the country is committed to much more growth in renewable energy generation capacity through the rest of this decade.
Pakistan is targeting 60% of electricity supplies to come from renewable sources by 2030, according to the International Trade Administration.
Through the first four months of 2025, renewable energy sources generated 28% of the country's electricity, so energy planners are aiming for a more than doubling in that share by the end of the decade.
With solar modules representing the quickest and cheapest means to meet those goals, further rapid build-out of the country's solar farm system looks likely, which will cement Pakistan's status as a global solar superpower.
Very nice lead Pakistan has there..
Shift to solar comes at a price for Pakistan’s national grid
https://www.ft.com/content/91116c44-bacf-43f4-9b6f-63a6c738ef4e
Pakistani officials are desperate to slow a world-leading solar revolution, as a surge in cut-price Chinese panels and batteries bleeds the country’s finances and threatens the viability of its debt-ridden grid. The power ministry has proposed to reform the country’s “net metering” policy by reducing the amount paid to buy excess solar electricity from households from Rs27 to Rs10 ($0.035) per unit. In June, the government also proposed an 18 per cent tax on imported panels, later revised and passed at 10 per cent.
Shimmering Chinese panels, blocked from the US by tariffs, have spread across the roofs and backyards of factories, mosques, farms and wealthy neighbourhoods. Last year, the country of 240mn people imported 17GW worth of solar capacity, among the world’s highest, says renewable energy think-tank Ember. Solar units delivered at least a 10th of electricity needs and helped consumers offset power prices that have doubled in three years. The surge helped progress towards a target of 30 per cent of power from renewable sources by 2030, but the twin policies aim to stem what analysts have called a “death spiral”, as households who can afford solar switch off the grid, while more bills go unpaid by poorer customers who cannot afford the jump in power prices.
But traders and analysts expect demand for panels and batteries to stay high even if both measures pass. Avinash Kumar, a solar panel trader in the city of Sukkur, says the tax would barely dent demand as panel prices have fallen since last year. Fears of net metering reform are spurring customers to buy Chinese hybrid inverters, costing about Rs450,000 ($1,590), which feed energy back to the grid and store it in batteries, Kumar adds. “Sales are doubling every year.”
Shift to solar comes at a price for Pakistan’s national grid
https://www.ft.com/content/91116c44-bacf-43f4-9b6f-63a6c738ef4e
Demand for lithium-ion batteries is also surging, traders and importers say, in part because households are preparing to lose the payments from selling to the grid that they use to offset high charges during peak usage times in the evening, while industries also want to scale up renewables. Pakistan introduced net metering 10 years ago to help households defray the costs of installing solar — then 10 times higher — by letting them sell spare power to the grid. The move worked, but policymakers say a surge in installations — net metering capacity was 2,813MW as of March — from 300,000 consumers, mostly households, added a burden of Rs150bn ($529mn) on the other 40mn consumers last year from fixed and buyback costs. The impact could reach Rs4,400bn for the period 2025 to 2034 if current policy persists, officials say. At the same time, demand for grid power has fallen.
Since 2015, Pakistan has drawn in billions of dollars of sovereign-backed loans to build power plants, and signed long-term liquefied natural gas deals. This resolved blackouts but was costly, as economic growth has not kept up with demand projections. The result is a country owing $18bn in mounting power and gas sector debts to finance excess energy supply. According to Arzachel, a consultancy, two-thirds of a household electric bill comes from fixed costs, such as capacity charges even for idling plants. In March, the government proposed cutting the electricity buyback rate, reducing the licensing period for net metering contracts, and limiting consumers to installing only as much solar as is authorised by their electricity provider. The plan stalled after it was denounced as “cruel” by politicians, who said consumers and industries would be saddled with power costs of between Rs30 and Rs60 per unit, among the highest in south Asia.
Power minister Awais Leghari says a change is a “necessity” as the “wealthiest households in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad . . . avoid fixed costs while their share is covered by the most vulnerable”.
Power minister Awais Leghari says poorer customers are subsidising those who can afford solar “Why should we buy power at a price that is Rs17 more expensive than the national energy pool price I buy from other generators?” Leghari says. He adds that reforms would raise payback periods to four or five years, from two to three currently, which “remains a fair incentive”.
Haneea Isaad of Islamabad-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says there was nearly a nationwide blackout during Eid in March, as solar power surged and the grid could not absorb frequency changes as some backup generators and plants were switched off due to low demand in the holiday. “Technical problems are . . . a ticking time bomb,” she says, and the switch to solar means companies are losing revenues to invest. The government says imported panels harm prospects of a local industry and it hopes to recoup some of the import bill. Analysts say the proposed levy is aimed at slowing solar adoption. To boost grid use, enabling investment to improve the service, Pakistan is banking on cryptocurrency mining, AI data centres, power cost reductions, levies on industries using captive natural gas plants, and electric vehicles.
Saadia Qayyum, an energy consultant at Canada-based Hatch, says “the government appears to be relying on short-term policy adjustments that risk slowing down solar adoption” among the poorest. “Many consumers are turning to solar because grid electricity is expensive and unreliable — in some areas, supply is limited to just 8 hours a day,” she says. “Policy shifts that make it harder to access or afford solar risk removing that essential lifeline.”
Great ideas. Let’s also do a similar analysis for electricity rates. Why are they skyrocketing?
How to Cut Solar Costs by 50% in the U.S. | Birchy’s Plan Explained
https://youtu.be/s_xV43rFDmg?si=j1h3edkPqJTIBGJx
Ahmad: "Great ideas. Let’s also do a similar analysis for electricity rates. Why are they skyrocketing?"
High electricity rates are driving a massive Solar and battery storage revolution in Pakistan, despite few incentives offered by the state. Cheap Solar panels and battery imports from China are growing rapidly. And the demand for grid electricity is declining. The same is likely to happen here in California if the utility rates keep going up as they are.
Cost of installing solar panels in Pakistan is about a third of the cost in the U.S.
Ahmad: "Cost of installing solar panels in Pakistan is about a third of the cost in the U.S."
Electricity rates in Pakistan (top rate 14 cents per kWh) , though high by local standards, are only a fraction of what PG&E charges (45 cents per kWh) in California.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2537710/how-much-will-you-pay-under-new-electricity-tariffs-announced-by-pm
The average tariff for domestic consumers has been set at Rs31.63 per unit (11 cents per kWh). For commercial consumers, the new rate is Rs62.47 per unit (22 cents per kWh), while general services will be charged Rs49.48 per unit.
For industrial and agricultural use, industrial consumers will now pay Rs40.51 per unit, and agricultural consumers will face a rate of Rs34.58 per unit.
'Tarbela project to generate power next year' | The Express Tribune
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2555035/tarbela-project-to-generate-power-next-year?amp=1
The Tarbela Dam's total generating capacity is currently 4,888 MW. However, with the completion of the 5th Extension project, which is expected in 2025, the capacity will increase to 6,418 MW.This makes Tarbela Pakistan's largest hydropower generation unit.
————-
The total electricity generation capacity of Tarbela Power House will reach 6,418 megawatts from the existing 4,888 MW after the commissioning of the Tarbela 5th Extension Project in 2025.
The WAPDA spokesman told APP the project would provide environment-friendly and low-cost hydel electricity to the National Grid.
WAPDA is constructing the Tarbela 5th Extension Hydropower Project on Tunnel No 5 of Tarbela Dam with the financial assistance of World Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
https://www.radio.gov.pk/29-05-2023/tarbelas-power-generation-capacity-to-jump-to-6418mw-in-2025
Shoaib: "The entire solar system's total cost (solar panels, battery and labor) came out to be only $6,000"
A similar system (12 kW and two Tesla powerwall 3 batteries) for my home in California cost me $63,000 (before 30% federal tax credit), over 10X more than in Karachi, Pakistan. It will cost me net $42,000 after tax credit which expires this year.
All my brothers and sisters in Pakistan have solar. Labor is cheap and panels are made in China which are quite affordable.
Installed cost for solar panels in the US averages $3.50 per watt. In Australia, it's more than a dollar. In Pakistan, it's less than a dollar. Most of my relatives have solar.
The Man from Sunrun
I had just entered the Lowe's hardware store when I saw him, standing next to a stand, and holding brochures in his hand. He smiled, offered me a brochure and asked, Have you considered installing solar?
Yes, and I am very happy with it.
What's your True Up bill?
Around $112 a month. That may seem high but without solar, it would be $450 a month. I drive a Tesla and while $112 a month may sound high, I save two or three times on driving costs with my EV compared to my gasoline car. I drive 10,000 miles a year which consumes 2,500 kWh. That’s 25% of my pre-EV consumption.
When did you install solar? December 2019.
Oh, then you probably don't have a battery. I have a battery. I installed in to deal with frequent power outages and to save money on my three period TOU rate.
How many power outages have you had? Oh, I stopped counting. At least a dozen. My friends with solar panels made fun of me when I installed a battery, saying I had been played by the solar contractor. Now, they are lining up to install batteries.
I live on a court with ten homes, of whom six have solar and at least two have batteries. We also have five EVs and one plug-in PHEV on the court.
Investing in solar and storage is one of the best investments I have made. Of course, the Guardians of the Status Quo are accusing me, and all customers with solar, of stealing money from other customers. But I have yet to meet a non-customer who feels that way. In fact, all of them would like to install solar (but it's still quite expensive -- even with all the incentives, it is twice as expensive as in Australia and three times as expensive as in Pakistan). Solar is the fastest way to cap skyrocketing bills.
He said that Pacific Gas and Electric Company earned $2.1 billion in profits last year and they have several applications pending to keep on raising rates. The good news, they say, is that while rates will go up, they won't go up as much as they did last year.
I said, yes, the biggest cost shift is from their customers to their shareholders. IOU has come to mean I Own You.
As I was stepping away, he said it was great talking to you. What's your name? "Faruqui."
He repeated it, with a smile, and even pronounced it correctly.
That made my day! There was no reason now to tell him that I was an economist with a Ph. D. who has worked on energy issues on six continents or that I was a prolific author and public speaker. But I did tell him I have several friends at Sunrun. At that point, my wife's patience ran out. She simply pulled me away and whispered, "We have come here to shop."
PS The one thing he did not mention was VPPs (Virtual Power Plants). Had he done so, my answer would have surprised him.
Ahmad: "The one thing he did not mention was VPPs (Virtual Power Plants). Had he done so, my answer would have surprised him"
What is your view on VPPs?
Can homes with solar+storage act as virtual power plants?
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/07/14/can-homes-with-solarstorage-act-as-virtual-power-plants/
Given California’s looming power shortages, a hypothesis has been put forward which would allow homes with solar+storage to be used as a virtual power plants (VPPs) when the grid encounters an emergency. A system-wide emergency would most likely arise during the peak period. Customers who would otherwise be avoiding the peak rate of 56 cents/kWh on the EV2-A rate by powering their home with the battery during such times would instead be paid $2 a kWh for exporting power from the battery to the grid.
This proposition sounds very attractive in theory. But will it pan out in practice? Using data from my house, I put it to a conceptual test on three dates. The first date is June 29 of this year. It was a mild weather day. My system of 25 panels (rated at 8 kW) produced 49.41 kWh’s that day. The house consumed 23.32 kWh’s. The balance was exported to the grid. I have paired my solar panels with an LG Chem battery rated at 9.8 kWh.
Let’s now look at August 14-15, 2020 when the grid in California did encounter a serious emergency. Hundreds of thousands of customers lost their power on those dates because the grid came up short. The weather was very hot in much of the state and central air conditioners in most if not all homes were running flat out. The skies were smoky, reducing the amount of solar generation, both central scale and at home. The wind was not blowing, reducing the amount of wind generation at central scale.
The grid came up short of power in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Homes such as mine did not have much of a surplus to send to the grid. I was actually concerned whether I had enough to keep my lights on in case the grid lost power. Why would I have exported power to the grid on either day?
On August 14, my system generated 32.79 kWh and the house consumed 63.12 kWh (even though I had adjusted the thermostat upwards by a couple of degrees). As seen in the graph, around 5 pm, the battery was unable to keep up with the consumption in my house. I started importing power from the grid. This would not have been the time to release whatever battery power I had remaining to the grid, regardless of the price being offered to me.
A similar situation was encountered on the next day, August 15, when my system generated 34.76 kWh and the house consumed 60.55 kWh. On neither day would I have wanted to export any power from the battery to the grid. Instead, I wished I could have tapped into the battery in my Tesla Model 3 that was parked in the garage. When fully charged, the car’s battery holds upwards of 70 kWh’s of energy. My wish could not be fulfilled because Tesla does not allow power to be pulled from the battery to power either the house (or to export it to the grid). Additionally, I would need to install a two-way charger rather than the one-way charger I currently have in the garage.
Of course, that’s just the data from my system. Other systems might behave differently. Diversity might exist across customers on mild-weather days. But are those the days when the grid will have an emergency? Probably not.
An emergency is likely to arise on days when everyone’s consumption is really high as it was on August 14-15, 2020. On such days, customers would be hard pressed to meet their own needs, let alone export power to the grid. Diversity would disappear.
What if the customer has multiple batteries paired to their panels? Won’t they may have an exportable surplus on emergency days? Yes, but that essentially means they had overinvested in batteries. How many customers would do that?
I installed solar-plus-storage in December 2019 and was given permission to operate the system a month later. Earlier, in June 2019, I had bought a Tesla Model 3.
I installed an 8 kWdc system and paired it with a battery capable of storing 9.8 kWh of energy. The system was designed to net out my energy usage for the year, which in the prior twelve months was 10,000 kWh. After discussions with my local utility about my best rate, I decided to switch to the EV2-A rate.
The payback for the system was estimated at nine years, using (a) an estimate of $200 a month for the 12 months preceding my purchase of the EV and the installation of the pre-solar-plus-storage bill and (b) the estimated savings from the system after its installation. The big unknown was the magnitude of the bill savings, which depends on a number of factors, including the weather, the amount of shade from any big trees, the orientation of the roof, the efficiency of the panels, and so on. This analysis did not include a projected change in future rates, so it was a bit conservative given PG&E’s rates history.
During this calendar year, from January to November, my True-Up bill under NEM 2.0 and PG&E’s EV2-A rate came in at $42 a month. That’s based on the numbers in the table below (adding $309.90 in the 5th column to $149.02 in the 8th yields $458.92, then dividing by 11 yields $41.72).
I am guessing by the time the data from December is added, the monthly average bill will come in at $50 a month.
Now let’s engage in a thought experiment. Imagine if I had not made my investment back in 2019, but was planning to make it sometime in the coming year with the new net energy billing rules in place. I would be switched over to the E-ELEC rate and pay an additional fixed charge of $15 a month.
My energy rates during the peak and part-peak periods would be a tad lower on the E-ELEC schedule but the off-peak rate, which has the largest number of hours, would be higher. Let’s assume the effect of switching rates would cancel out, so there would be no incremental impact on my bill.
Under net energy billing, export compensation will drop down by 80% in five years and then hold steady. My pre-solar bill was $200 a month. Under NEM 2.0, the post-solar-plus-storage bill is $50 a month, representing a savings of $150 a month. Using a rule of thumb, I am estimating that 60% of the monthly bill savings (or $90) from my solar-plus-storage system comes from reducing usage and 40% from export (or $60). Some 80% of the export savings ($48) will disappear, leaving me with just $12 of savings from exports.
I would only be saving $102 a month as opposed to $150 a month, a drop of roughly a third. Clearly, that would extend the payback period from 9 years. I just don’t see how the payback period would be shortened, as asserted in the December 15 decision.
Doug Lewin
@douglewinenergy
Something remarkable just happened in Pakistan.
In only 8 months, citizens built the equivalent of half the country’s national electric grid, without waiting for government or utilities.
How?
☀️ Cheap solar panels
☀️ TikTok tutorials showing how to install them
☀️ Farmers leading the way, swapping diesel pumps for solar
The results:
✅ Diesel sales dropped 35% in one year
✅ Families slashed costs and gained energy independence
✅ National demand on the grid actually declined because of so much distributed generation
This isn’t just about Pakistan. It’s a glimpse of how fast the world can shift when technology gets cheap enough and people take energy into their own hands.
These are the kinds of numbers that change the world.
🎧 Full Energy Capital Podcast episode with Bill McKibben here: https://tinyurl.com/mwmackr2
https://x.com/douglewinenergy/status/1958271947743301729
Pakistan's solar boom started to take off in 2023 when the price of solar panels from China dropped by more than 40%, as China ramped up its exports. Pakistani importers saw the potential to make a profit and bought them up en masse, selling them across the country. The solar transition further sped up in 2024, as the price of Chinese solar panels dropped even more, flooding the market with technology that many Pakistanis couldn't previously afford.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/08/21/g-s1-82369/solar-power-panels-boom-pakistan
Adnan Shams, an electrician in Islamabad, says he has experienced the boom firsthand as more people call on him for solar installation. Earlier this summer, he attended a solar training course at National Skills University Islamabad, where the instructor taught students how to install panels. "[Solar] is beneficial in the long run, which is why the work is increasing," he says.
The proliferation of cheaper and more reliable batteries, used to store solar energy and also imported from China, now looks set to advance solar adoption as customers look for additional ways to reduce their bills and ensure a steady electricity supply.
Solar adoption reveals cracks in Pakistan's power system
But the millions of new solar users — like Zia and his neighbors — are having an impact on the financing of Pakistan's power sector.
That's because of reforms that date back to the 1990s. Pakistan was then struggling to produce enough electricity for its growing population. So the country set up long-term contracts to pay independent companies to produce electricity, regardless of how much is used.
These days, people are using less power from the Pakistani grid to avoid high electricity bills, says Rabia Babar, data manager at Renewables First. "The electricity cost in the country has increased so people are in conservation mode. They use less electricity to save [on] their electricity bills," she says.
As more Pakistanis add solar, demand for electricity from the grid has gone down, even though many still rely on the grid, especially at night.
As a result of this lessening demand and the government's continued obligation to independent power producers, "the same number of payments needs to be made by a lesser number of consumers," says Pakistan's energy minister, Awais Leghari.
He says the government is troubleshooting how to bring more industrial customers onto the grid to offset residential customers who are switching over to solar, while planning targeted subsidies for low-income users. "Our challenge is to get the demand to go up," he says.
Pakistan's capacity to generate electricity has also increased, with some residential and industrial solar producers selling the energy they make back to the grid by using net metering.
The Pakistani government has already taken several steps to regulate the residential solar industry, including lowering the rate it pays for electricity that household solar setups produce.
The rapid adoption of solar energy was initially encouraged by the government in power-starved Pakistan, but officials now fear it is spreading too quickly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2025/08/24/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy/
DHAKU, Pakistan — In Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, the solar energy boom is hard to miss.
Mosques have installed solar panels to keep prayer rooms lit; some factories are now powered exclusively by the sun; farmers are using the technology to transform once-barren land into lush fields.
“Even rich people are trying to become farmers now,” said Mohammed Latif, standing in his newly built house in Dhaku, a village in the eastern Punjab region. Installing a solar-powered pump last year allowed Latif to plant thriving rows of bell peppers on his formerly arid property. He made enough money to send one of his sons to study in Britain.
Latif, 68, could recall only one other societal “revolution” in his lifetime as dramatic as this one: the construction of the country’s highway system nearly four decades ago.
Two years ago, solar energy was the fifth-largest source of electricity in Pakistan. Now, it is alone at the top, accounting for around one-fourth of the national power supply. Its rapid adoption was initially welcomed by the government, which has long struggled to provide reliable power to its 240 million people, but officials now fear it is spreading too quickly and giving the rich an unfair advantage.
The boom began in 2023, when the price of solar panels plunged globally and imports from China surged. Wealthy Pakistanis, and farmers like Latif — encouraged by government subsidies — started buying them up in bulk. Now, many have gone off the aging and overburdened national grid entirely.
“I don’t blame them,” Pakistani Power Minister Awais Leghari said in an interview with The Washington Post. “It’s the price of electricity that has led to people getting out of the grid.”
But 45 percent of Pakistanis live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, putting solar panel systems well beyond their reach. The pool of customers for the national grid has gotten smaller and poorer, and the costs of financing old coal-powered plants have increasingly been passed on to those who can least afford it.
Electricity prices roughly doubled between 2021 and 2024, before government intervention recently stabilized them. Many families say they have had to cut back on food and other essentials to pay their power bills.
“High-income consumers go solar while nonsolar users absorb the costs,” said Hasnat Khan, senior vice chairman of the Pakistan Solar Association. “It’s a death spiral.”
After decades of chronic shortages, Pakistan now has an excess of power-generating capacity, analysts say, and too many power plants.
The government argues that its expensive fossil fuel plants remain necessary. Whenever solar energy production falls on cloudy days, officials say, grid consumption still surges. If coal plants weren’t constantly running, they fear rolling blackouts would quickly become a feature of life again.
The quandary, according to analysts, is rooted in a lack of foresight.
Amid widespread power outages between the 1990s and early 2010s, which frequently caused economic paralysis, Pakistani authorities rushed to massively expand coal power production. The debt-burdened nation secured billions of dollars in loans, agreeing to pay for a set amount of production capacity — even if the electricity went unused, said Muhammad Basit Ghauri, a Pakistani energy analyst, describing the approach as “inefficient and mismanaged.”
Pakistan’s power sector is saddled with around $5.6 billion of debt, according to official figures. Leghari said the government has stanched losses by cracking down on electricity theft and collecting outstanding payments. But much of the burden has been passed on to consumers, fueling energy inequality — and what critics contend is a glaring double standard.
Hithium signs 1GWh residential and C&I BESS distribution agreement in Pakistan - Energy-Storage.News
https://www.energy-storage.news/hithium-signs-1gwh-residential-and-ci-bess-distribution-agreement-in-pakistan/
Energy storage-focused lithium-ion OEM Hithium has partnered with power system integrator The Imperial Electric Company (IEC) to deliver 1GWh of energy storage across Pakistan’s residential and commercial & industrial (C&I) sectors.
With the partnership formalised at the China International Energy Storage Exhibition (EESA EXPO) in Shanghai, IEC will now distribute Hithium’s HeroEE residential energy storage systems across Pakistan.
The HeroEE residential energy storage systems feature advanced battery management systems (BMS) with cell-level monitoring and thermal management capabilities optimised for Pakistan’s climate.
Indeed, Pakistan’s temperatures can range from below freezing in northern regions to over 50°C (122°F) in southern provinces during summer months.
As part of the agreement, Hithium will establish a local service centre in Pakistan to provide technical support and expertise. This move is expected to accelerate the adoption of battery energy storage systems (BESS) throughout the country and build local technical capacity.
The partnership aims to address Pakistan’s persistent energy reliability challenges, which have worsened considerably over the past 18 months.
Pakistan’s power grid has been deemed one of Southeast Asia’s most unreliable, with blackouts regularly occurring. Perhaps one of the largest in recent years was the 2023 blackout, which plunged 220 million people into darkness for a whole day.
According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2025-26, released in June by the government, these disruptions have significantly impacted both businesses and households, contributing to a 1.5% contraction in the country’s large-scale manufacturing sector during fiscal year 2025.
According to local media, the situation has deteriorated markedly since January 2025, when a major power outage in northern Pakistan sparked week-long protests that shut down a key highway linking Pakistan with China.
Hithium expands manufacturing capabilities
In 2025, Hithium has made significant strides in expanding its manufacturing capabilities and product portfolio. Most notably, the company started mass production of the “world’s first” 1000Ah+ battery cell, specifically designed for long-duration energy storage applications.
This breakthrough ∞Cell 1175Ah battery was officially announced at SNEC 2025 on 11 June, marking what the company describes as “the beginning of a new phase, where long-duration energy storage enters scaled deployment.”
Meanwhile, in a major development for its North American operations, Hithium opened a new manufacturing facility in Mesquite, Texas, in June 2025.
The 484,441-square-foot facility represents a US$200 million investment and will create approximately 200 jobs. With an annual production capacity of 10GWh for battery modules and systems, the factory is expected to begin mass production later this year, strengthening Hithium’s position in the US energy storage market.
JinkoSolar attends 2nd China-Pakistan B2B investment summit, signing 2.3GW MoU - PV Tech
https://www.pv-tech.org/industry-updates/jinkosolar-attends-2nd-china-pakistan-b2b-investment-summit-signing-2-3gw-mou/
JinkoSolar, formally invited by the Outbound Investment Committee of the China-Asia Economic Development Association, joined the second China-Pakistan B2B Investment Summit convened by the Embassy of Pakistan. The summit, themed “Green Transformation and Digital Innovation,” brought together cabinet-level officials to frame the policy architecture for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 2.0.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal and Energy Secretary Aftab Ahmad reaffirmed Pakistan’s pledge of maximum policy facilitation and security coverage for Chinese investors in renewable-energy and digital infrastructure.
On the sidelines of the event, Jinko signed MoUs totalling 2.3GW with leading Pakistani energy groups for its Tiger Neo modules and integrated storage systems, covering module supply, BESS deployment and utility-scale PV plant development. The deals target optimization of Pakistan’s energy mix and its 30 % renewable goal by 2030.
Daniel Liu, Indo-Pacific GM, Bright Wang, Jinko ESS GM for APAC and Shehan, Pakistan Country Head, executed the agreements. Liu commented: “Pakistan anchors our South Asia strategy. After 4.4 GW delivered in 2024 and a 28% market share, we will deploy Tiger Neo 3.0 to cut LCOE and accelerate Pakistan’s green transition.”
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