Monday, June 29, 2020

Are American and Pakistani Responses to COVID19 Pandemic Flawed?

Did the pandemic surveillance system fail in early detection of the Coronavirus in US and Pakistan? What are the problems in this system? What needs to be done to correct the problems?

Positive Test Rate Declines to 1 in 6.36 (15.7%) From Peak of 1 in 4.47 (22.3%) on June 4, 2020

How are Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan and President Donald Trump of the United States handling the COVID19 pandemic? Are both their responses fundamentally flawed? Are absolute total lockdowns as recommended by the World Health Organization necessary in Pakistan? Can Pakistan handle the economic and human consequences of extended total lockdown?

Pakistan COVID19 Weekly Death Decline to 577 Now From Peak of 869 Last Week

Weekly COVID19 deaths in Pakistan have declined to 577 this week from 869 last week. To put it perspective, about 4,000 Pakistanis died everyday from various causes before the current pandemic.

The number of people testing positive in Pakistan has declined to 1 in 6.36 (15.7%) from the peak of 1 in 4.47 (22.3%) on June 4, 2020.

What does the coronavirus data show in terms of coronavirus cases and fatality rates in the US and Pakistan? Is the positivity rate the right gauge of the true extent of the spread of the virus? Is antibodies testing data a better indicator of it? Why is the COVID19 death rate in Pakistan among the lowest in the world? Is it grossly understated?

Despardes with Faraz Darvesh host discusses these questions with Pakistani-American epidemiologist Dr. Rashid Chotani and analyst Riaz Haq (

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Can India Afford to Boycott China?

Has Modi Succeeded in Isolating Pakistan?

Did GOP's Dogwhistle Politics Produce Trump?

Coronavirus, Lives and Livelihoods in Pakistan

Vast Majority of Pakistanis Support Imran Khan's Handling of Covid19 Crisis

Pakistani-American Woman Featured in Netflix Documentary "Pandemic"

Coronavirus Antibodies Testing in Pakistan

Can Pakistan Effectively Respond to Coronavirus Outbreak? 

How Grim is Pakistan's Social Sector Progress?

Pakistan Fares Marginally Better Than India On Disease Burdens

Modi's Kashmir Blunder

Democracy vs Dictatorship in Pakistan

Pakistan Child Health Indicators

Pakistan's Balance of Payments Crisis

Panama Leaks in Pakistan

Conspiracy Theories About Pakistan Elections"

PTI Triumphs Over Corrupt Dynastic Political Parties

Strikingly Similar Narratives of Donald Trump and Nawaz Sharif

Nawaz Sharif's Report Card

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel


rjs said...

that Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro,Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi account for more than half of the coronavirus cases on the planet should tell us all we need to know about the importance of policy response in controlling this disease...

on the other hand, China, where this began, combined with South Korea and Japan, two of the other countries to see early outbreaks, now account for less than 1% of the global total...

samir sardana said...

People are not understanding the COVID paradox

In the USA,the exposed cases are at least 20 times the number of the current detected cases,of 3.5 million,AND THE ACTUAL INFECTED CASES ARE AT LEAST,1O TIMES the current detected cases.

The current daily count in the USA is around 70000 and was around 25-30,000,a fortnught ago.These incremental 35000 were EXPOSED around 27 days ago (at the earliest) and were INFECTED ENOUGH,to take a TEST.

Therefore,it is safe to assume that for every 70000 cases today there are at least 70000 more INFECTED BUT NOT WITH SUFFICIENT SYMPTOMS TODAY plus some more WHO DO NOT WANT TO GET TESTED AT ALL.

Further,for every 1 COVID positive person WITH SYMPTOMS - it is safe to assume an EXPOSURE RATIO OF 10:1 IN A SPAM OF 30 DAYS - starting from the time when the COVID +ve person was 1st EXPOSED.

So for the 70000 cases today, there are AT LEAST 70000 more COVID positive person (based on 1 day's data),which makes it 140000.These people have exposed at least 1.4 million in the last 30 days !

So,if you look at the number of cases in the USA in the last 30 days at 30000 a day,so you have a ROLLING stock of 6 million EXPOSURES just in 30 days - who will show symptoms in the next 7-30 days,and so the numbers will skyrocket.

Based on a population of 350 million - IT IS ONLY WHEN THE USA has 17-20 million DETECTED CASES - that the COVID saga will end.There WILL be NO CURE,AND NO VACCINE - just trial and error diagnostics.

So we are a long way away.dindooohindoo

30 days ago,the USA COVID cases were around 1.5 million and so the EXPOSURES were at 30 million.From that 30 million - in the last 30 days - the USA has had around 35000 cases per day,in the last 30 days - which is around 3% of the EXPOSURES,as of 30 days ago.

The Rolling stock as above,WILL DOUBLE IN A MINIMUM OF 30 DAYS and the 3% will also DOUBLE IN EVERY 60 DAYS at the minimum.These are the coordinates of doom.

There is NO STATISTIC on 1 PARAMETER.How many COVID discharged humans in the USA were re-infected,and in what duration ? That is the ONLY HOPE - id.est., to be infected and survive.Can it REALLY BE ZERO ? Or does it show THAT releasing a COVID cured patient into the jungle - is the biggest disaster - a ticking neutron bomb ?

USA numbers look devastating,as they have the infra,to test on that scale.The situation in other parts of the world is BEYOND redemption.

Even in the USA,the sharp rise in Cases,is NOT DUE to the re-opening of businesses - BIT DUE TO LACK OF TESTING.It is the people who WERE NOT TESTED,in the last 30 days,AND HAD synptoms - which is reflecting in the current data,of 70000 a day.

You can imagine the CATASTROPHIC DOOM,in Brazil and India - where THEY WILL NEVER be able to test,on the American scale.

In essence,the entire population of 7 billion,HAS TO BE infected,and at least 10%,will die due to COVID,and 10% more will die,due to other morbidities,which will have no medical attention and another 10%,will die due to starvation.

The persons who will die,are those,with a weak and infirm constitution,and low natural immunity - and whose body,is already damaged by medicines,steroids,nicotine,cocaine,adulterated food and alcohol.

A Perfect Constitution,is an essential,for a Perfect Brain

This is the Greek Formula,updated for AI + Robotics + Nanotech

The Greeks used to discard their defective samples,at BIRTH,on Mt Olmypus,for the ravens and vultures.That was he Priori Best Practice.2000 years since then, AI + Robotics + Nanotech, has made Humans obsolete.

Thence,comes in COVID - just like Pure Providence.After the 10+10+10% culling - we will get the NEXT virus - which will be in action,by November 2021.That virus will target,in Phase 1,the clowns CURED BY COVID - as the COVID bird has laid its nest in them.Then it will target those who were infected by COVID but did not show the symptoms.

Like a never ending Geometric Progression - towards redemption and salvation,like Zeno's Paradox.