Monday, May 14, 2018

Impact of Trump's Iran Nuke Deal Pull-Out on Afghanistan, Pakistan and Mid-East

What motivated President Donald Trump's unilateral decision to withdraw the United States from JCPoA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) on Iran nuclear weapons program? Why did the European signatories to the deal fail to persuade Trump to abide by the deal? What role did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman and the Bush era neocons play in this decision?

How will the Trump decision impact Iran's stability? Will the hardliners on all sides be emboldened? Will the US, Israel and Arabs succeed in bringing about a "regime change" in Iran? Will Iran's economic stress turn the Iranian people against the powerful clerics led by Ayatollah Khamenei?

 How will Iran respond to the threat from US, Saudi Arabia and Israel? Will Iran step up proxy wars against US in Afghanistan and the Middle East? How will these events affect Pakistan? Will there be a renewed intensified sectarian war in Pakistan? Will India's efforts to bypass Pakistan to reach Central Asia via Chabahar suffer a setback?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Iran Nuclear Deal

Iran-Pakistan Ties

Are Iran and Russia Supporting Taliban in Afghanistan?

Iran's Chabahar Port

Viewpoint From Overseas Youtube Channel

Riaz Haq Youtube Channel

1 comment:

Riaz Haq said...

Mani Shankar Aiyar On #Trump Putting #India In Its Place. "India is being told that a Major Defense Partner cannot get away with transgressing US foreign policy priorities" #Iran #Modi … via @ndtv

The cancellation of the 2+2 talks with India, first in March this year and again now in June, needs to be evaluated not in narrow bilateral terms but in the overall perspective of the direction in which Trump is taking his country's foreign policy. The cancellations, without even a hint of an alternative date are Trump's way of demanding: what has India to give the US here and now?

For the present, our answer has to be: "Nothing". For, with good reason, we are wary of sacrificing our renewed economic and political relations with Iran only because Trump has denounced the Obama era agreement to end Iran's quest for nuclear weapons. Nor have we been able to deliver on the massive economic bonanza in terms of gargantuan purchases of US nuclear power plants (closed in the US since the Three Mile Island accident in 1979) that the US was so looking forward to when Bush press-ganged his entire team of allies in the IAEA and NSG to give India the exemptions needed to push through the US-India civil nuclear power deal. Significantly, there is no similar US push in evidence to fulfill a major foreign policy objective of the Modi government - full membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. On trade too, India is keeping fairly tightly closed the door to unimpeded imports of US agricultural products, as extolled by Trump. Reciprocally, it is not Indian but US interests that are given priority in determining the conditions for the issue of HB1 visas.

The accent being on transactional gains for the US, or "deal-making" to reprise Trump's vocabulary, it is hardly surprising that the US are holding out on the 2+2 talks before being assured of the material gains they can get out of Indians talking and the Americans taking.