Wednesday, May 14, 2014

World Bank: Pakistan Ranks Among World's 25 Largest Economies

With an estimated $778 billion PPP GDP for 2011, Pakistan's economy is the 23rd largest in the world, according to the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011. Other surprises in the report include the follpowing:

1.  China may have already pulled ahead of the United States to become world's largest economy. 

2.  India's economy is now the world's third largest economy after passing Japan's. 

3. Pakistan is the second least expensive country in the world in terms of  how much a US dollar can buy there. Egypt is the least expensive. 

4. The six largest middle income economies – China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico – account for 32.3 percent of world GDP, whereas the 6 largest high income economies – United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Italy – account for 32.9 percent.

4. Asia and the Pacific, including China and India, accounts for 30 percent of world GDP, Eurostat-OECD 54 percent, Latin America 5.5 percent (excluding Mexico, which participates in the OECD and Argentina, which did not participate in the ICP 2011), Africa and Western Asia about 4.5 percent each. 

5. China and India make up two-thirds of the Asia and the Pacific economy, excluding Japan and South Korea, which are part of the OECD comparison. 

6. Russia accounts for more than 70 percent of the CIS, and Brazil for 56 percent of Latin America. 

7. South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria account for about half of the African economy.

Here's the list of the top 25 economies in terms of PPP GDP as calculated by International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011: 

1. United States $15,534 billion

2. China $13,495 billion

3. India $5,757 billion

4. Japan $4,380 billion

5. Germany $3,352 billion

6. Russia $3,216 billion

7. Brazil $2,816 billion

8. France $2,369 billion

9. United Kingdom $2,201 billion

10. Indonesia $2,058 billion

11. Italy $2,056 billion

12. Mexico $1,895 billion

13. Spain $1,483 billion

14. South Korea $1,445

15. Canada $1,416 billion

16. Saudi Arabia $1,367 billion

17. Iran  $1,315 billion

17. Turkey $1,315 billion 

18. Australia $956 billion

19. Taiwan $907 billion

20. Thailand $899 billion

21. Egypt $843 billion

22. Poland $838 billion

23. Pakistan $788 billion

24. Netherlands $720 billion

25. Malaysia $606 billion

Cost of Living Comparison in Asia

World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP) does a detailed study of a list of around 800 household and nonhousehold products to compare real purchasing power for trans-national income comparison program (ICP). The latest ICP findings conclude that Pakistan's per capita income is US$4,450.00, just slightly below India's US$4,735.00

ICP Based GDP Per Capita. Source: World Bank

At US$4,450 per capita, Pakistan's PPP GDP works out to US$788 billion for 2011, and more than a trillion US dollars now.

The results of an earlier ICP program for 2005 and 2006 released by Asian Development Bank in 2009 concluded that Pakistan's per capita income was HK$ 13,528.  It reported India’s per capita as HK $12,090.

Price Level Index Rankings. Source: World Bank

The ICP program uses Price Level Index (PLI) as an indicator of cost of living in a country. It defines PLI as the ratio of a PPP (purchasing power parity) to a corresponding exchange rate. An index over 100 means prices are higher on average than in the world, and one less than 100 means prices are relatively lower. Pakistan's PLI of 28.2 ranks it at 176, just above the last-ranked Egypt's PLI of 27.2 at 177. India's PLI of 32.4 ranks it at 127.

23 economies are showing a PLI of 50 or below. The cheapest economies are Egypt, Pakistan, Myanmar, Ethiopia and Lao People's Democratic Republic, with indices ranging from 35 to 40.

The most expensive economies in GDP terms are Switzerland, Norway, Bermuda, Australia and Denmark, with indices ranging from 210 to 185. The United States ranked 25th in the world, lower than most other high-income economies, including France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Last month, another survey done by Cato Institute found that Pakistan fares better than its neighbors on world misery index. Back in 1960s, distinguished American economist Arthur Okun defined misery index as sum of inflation and unemployment rates. America's high misery index was cited by candidate Jimmy Carter as a reason to elect him president in his 1976 presidential race against President Gerald R. Ford. The Cato Institute has now revived it by adding interest rates to the sum of inflation and unemployment rates and subtracting per capita GDP growth rate from it.

Pakistan (score 21.9) at 28 ranks below Iran (score 61.6) at 2 and India (score 25.6) at 19 on world misery index rankings for 2013 compiled by Washington's Cato Institute. Other nations worse off than Pakistan on the list include Serbia, Argentina, Jamaica, Egypt, Spain, South Africa, Brazil, Greece, Macedonia, Palestine, Turkey, Cyprus, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Georgia, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jordan, Ukraine, Peru, Uruguay, Portugal and Barbados. Indonesia (score 21.6) at 29 is only slightly better off than Pakistan.

Earlier this year, Economist Intelligence Unit's latest Worldwide Cost of Living survey revealed that Pakistan’s Karachi is the second cheapest city of the world in 2014 while India’s Mumbai is the cheapest. The top 10 cheapest cities include Mumbai, Karachi, New Delhi, Kathmandu, Damascus, Algiers, Bucharest, Panama City, Jeddah and Riyadh in that order, according to EIU.

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Aero said...

Sir this data is according to PPP index not nominal GDP index?

Riaz Haq said...

Aero: "Sir this data is according to PPP index not nominal GDP index?"

It's from World Banks International Comparison Program based on actual prices of 800 items in 199 countries including Pakistan.

Anonymous said...

As an Indian this is all BS.

Nominal GDP is what matters.PPP is for soothe sayers!

In nominal we are #10 we need to be #3 by 2025.

Zaheer said...

Thanks, Riaz.
I have read somewhere (in a reputed journal) that Pakistan,s economy is the World's 15 or 16th largest economy; too much of Pakistan's real economy is "black" I-e unreported.

Riaz Haq said...

Anon: "Nominal GDP is what matters.PPP is for soothe sayers!"

ICP program provides a good comparison of standards of living in different countries for everything produced and consumed within each country. However, it doesn't apply well to imports which have to be paid for in real US dollars, not PPP dollars.

Riaz Haq said...

There are 7 Muslim countries among the top 25 economies of the world:

1. Indonesia $2,058 billion #10

2. Saudi Arabia $1,367 billion #16

3. Iran $1,315 billion #17

3. Turkey $1,315 billion #17

4. Egypt $843 billion #21

5. Pakistan $788 billion #23

6. Malaysia $606 billion #25

Rounding up the top 10 Muslim nations are Nigeria ($511 billion), United Arab Emirates (($503 billion), Algeria ($475 billion) and Bangladesh (419 billion).

Top 10 Muslim economies have combined population of 1.1 billion people and their combined GDP is $10.2 trillion, just behind the United States's $15.5 trillion and China's $13.5 trillion GDP.


Anonymous said...

Really good news for South Asia all round. Our common culture, in 1707, had 24% of world GDP, and by 1947 this stood at about 1.7%. The WB updated the 2012 data on the website and i am guessing that the old british emipre, xBurma, now (2014) has $8 trn (India), $1.1 trillion (Pak), $600 bln (Bang). Say in total $9.5 trillion or 9.5% of world GDP. We are still 10% behind 1707, but still good going for us all given the conditions we found ourselfs in 1947. With growth in the region around 4% to 5% we should collectively regain lost ground by the 2040's.As in Indian i am particulary happy that the indian economy is growing at a steady pace, despite some of the obvious falws, and will be a job growth generator in the next few decades to come.

Farhan said...

Actually World Bank already has updated the List by GDP PPP upto 2012

Pakistan's PP GDP for 2012 is $795 billion

Riaz Haq said...

Farhan: "Actually World Bank already has updated the List by GDP PPP upto 2012"

This uses the standard method, not based on ICP 2011. It puts Pakistan's GDP for 2012 at $795 billion and ranks Pakistan's GDP at #24 in the world.

Mahesh said...

Now that Modi is in power due to a clear majority, the hope is that the mandate of accelerating growth can be achieved. No worries about appeasing smaller coalition parties. The next few years will tell.

Riaz Haq said...

Mahesh: "Now that Modi is in power due to a clear majority, the hope is that the mandate of accelerating growth can be achieved. "

Manmohan Singh will go down in history as the man who surpassed Japan to make India world's third largest economy in terms of PPP.

I think future historians will treat Manmohan Singh kindly.

Anonymous said...

Manmohan Singh will go down in history as the man who surpassed Japan to make India world's third largest economy in terms of PPP.

I think future historians will treat Manmohan Singh kindly.

Firstly as many Indians have pointed out PPP is a feel good statistic.Nobody in India is very excited about PPP we passed Germany in PPP way back in 1998 and it has taken this MMS govt 10+ years to pass a country with a pop 10% India's is no achievement.

There have been similar things in the past all the housewives whose labour output is hidden from official statistics but still is useful work nonetheless if that is added then the GDP increases by 30% etc etc

What really matters is nominal GDP and the core industrial sector which this MMS Italian waitress party has run to the ground!

But with a strong mandate it is very likely to change in the next 2-3 years.

What was heartening about this election was"
1.Hindus voted outside cast lines
2.Approx 15-20% of Muslims voted for Modi.(There is no other way the UP results can be explained)

This means that for the first time most Indians voted for the promise of efficient government and economic growth.

If Modi delivers and he has a good record of implementing projects then this will be a turning point in Indian politics where parties will begin to compete primarily on ability to deliver economic goods and not votebank politics though of course caste and religious identities won't disappear overnight!

Anonymous said...

Manmohan Singh will go down in history as the man who surpassed Japan to make India world's third largest economy in terms of PPP.

And in two terms Modi may go down as the man who surpassed the US to make India the world's second largest economy in PPP(The way it has been btw for most of human history)

Riaz Haq said...

Express Tribune: Pak per capita GDP projected at Rs. 160,443 for 2014-15:

The Annual Plan Coordination Committee has recommended setting next year’s economic growth target at 5.1% and of inflation at 8% but cautioned that energy shortages, security situation and additional taxes may pose downside risks to the growth target.
The APCC also recommended setting the investment target at 15.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against this year’s 14%. The per capita Gross National Product (GNP) is projected at Rs160,443 for the fiscal year 2014-15, commencing from July.
Headed by Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal, the APCC on Monday cleared the economic framework for the approval of the National Economic Council (NEC). Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will chair the NEC on May 29 to approve the framework.

“The growth targets are subject to risks like deterioration in energy availability, extreme weather fluctuations, non-implementation of envisaged reforms and fiscal profligacy,” noted the APCC. The APCC working paper, prepared by the Planning Commission, carries some quality advice for the Ministry of Finance to bring real improvement in the economic conditions.
It notes that the outlook for 2014-15 portends a significant recovery in growth momentum and trajectory amid wide ranging challenges including persistent energy shortages, supply-side constraints, inefficiencies of production, further reduction in fiscal deficit by mobilizing additional revenues and demand for structural reforms besides security challenges.
“Without bringing improvement in tax collection, investment and increasing exports, the country’s national development agenda remains incomplete,” said Iqbal after the APCC meeting.
The 5.1% growth rate is projected to be achieved with the aid of healthy growth in industry and services sector but a risk remains that growth in the agriculture sector will remain weak in the next fiscal year as well.
The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.3%, industry 6.8% and services 5.2%. The large scale manufacturing is projected to grow to 7% next year.
Regaining macroeconomic stability and adequate investment are critical for improved growth prospects, the APCC working paper observed.
The constraining factors such as lack of structural reforms, high fiscal deficit and accommodative monetary policies are no more desirable as they have serious consequences for inflation, balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves, the paper noted.
The government has also pinned down the reasons for below the expectations growth in the outgoing fiscal year.
The growth rate of 4.4% for the outgoing fiscal year was consistent with assumption of slight improvements in energy supplies, normal weather conditions, fiscal adjustments and better investment prospects. Some of these targets could not be achieved, resulting in the subsequent missing of the annual growth target.
“Fiscal situation for 2013-14 faced certain downside risks like shortfall in FBR tax collection and a sharp rise in federal current expenditures on account of more than budgeted expenditures on power subsidies and persistent increase in interest payments”.
It noted that in the outgoing fiscal year, the financing of the modest current account deficit remained challenging and the trade imbalance remained a cause of concern for a sustainable balance of payments.
For the upcoming fiscal, exports are projected to grow by 5.8% to $27 billion from $25.5 billion of this year. Imports during the next year are projected to grow by 6.2% to $44.2 billion, up from $41.6 billion of this year. The trade deficit is projected at $17.2 billion.
The current account deficit is projected at $2.8 billion or 1.1% of the GDP as against deficit of $2.6 billion or 1% of the GDP of this fiscal. The net capital inflows for the next fiscal year are estimated at $5.6 billion as against $4.9 billion of this year.

Riaz Haq said...

Here's an excerpt of Wall Street Journal report on World Bank ICP 2011:

Like all data, though, there are reasons to treat PPP-based calculations with caution. For one, they are a statistical construction, based on complex surveys of baskets of goods in many countries. The IMF points out here the possible statistical errors. And the ICP notes in Wednesday’s release there’s a margin of error either way of 15% when using its data to compare economies of different sizes.

Some economists believe nominal GDP, by using market exchange rates, better measures what a nation’s people or its companies can buy in international markets.

Then, there’s the big issue of the relative populations of an economy. In many ways, it’s no surprise China, with 1.3 billion people, is catching up with the U.S., whose population is about a quarter the size.

“You’d expect countries with more people to have bigger output,” said Stephen Schwartz, a former International Monetary Fund official who now works as an economist for Moody’s Investors Service in Hong Kong. “In per capita terms, China is still very poor.”

Indeed. Ranking the ICP numbers on a per capita basis, China comes in 99th position. India is at No. 127. The U.S. places 12th, a reflection of its much higher productivity and relative wealth.

Riaz Haq said...

India and Pakistan are running neck and neck in per capita GDP in both nominal US dollar terms and purchasing power parity terms, according to data available from multiple sources.

CIA World Factbook reports that the 2013 official exchange rate GDP of India is $1.67 trillion while that of Pakistan is $237 billion. It's a ratio of 7, about the same as the population ratio between the two countries.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan’s true economic output is not reflected in the official gross domestic product (GDP) and this is the reason why.
It fails to include important industries that have sprung up since the last census of the manufacturing base was conducted nine years ago.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) highlighted this anomaly in its annual report on The State of the Economy 2013-14, mentioning economic contributors not incorporated in the Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) and agricultural data.
Manufacturing has a 11% share in economic output, but experts have been going on for years, saying that tens of thousands of establishments from Karachi to Faisalabad are the real drivers of the economy but remain unreported.

The last Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) was carried out by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in fiscal 2005-06 on the basis of response received from 6,417 factories — a number much smaller than the actual size of the industrial base.
Some very large businesses are not covered by the PBS at all.
Engro Polymer and Chemicals, which meets over one-third of the domestic demand for caustic soda, is a glaring example.
Caustic soda holds the largest chunk in the 11 categories of chemicals reported by PBS. Excluding Engro distorts actual output of the industry, the SBP said.
While the production of caustic soda posted a 8.4% year-on-year decline in 2013, Engro Chemicals reported a 5.6% increase in production this year. “The inclusion of this company could have offset the reported decline in caustic soda,” SBP said.

When it comes to automobiles, PBS relies on data provided by the members of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (Pama). This leaves out leading bus and truck manufacturers like Afzal Motors and Al-Haj Faw Motors that entered the market later.
Textile and food
Similarly, the weightage of cotton yarn and cotton cloth is one of the highest in CMI, together holding 17%. Yet PBS leaves out 90% of the manufacturers as it covers only mill-related activity, which is based on units registered with the Ministry of Textiles.
As a matter of fact, data of wearing apparels and dressing, publishing, printing products and recorded media, fabricated metal products, computers, medical precision and optical instruments, and other industries, is not included as part of LSM, stated the SBP.

“In the food sector as well, demand and production of a number of processed food items like packaged milk, yogurt, dairy items, pastas cereals, has grown in past few years. But the production of these items is not included in LSM data,” it noted.

This basically leaves out manufacturers like Unilever, Kolson, Nestle, Engro Foods and National Foods, it noted.
The story is the same with cosmetics and personal care goods produced by FMCGs like Unilever and P&G that are also not part of the LSM.
Plastic sector
Another sector, which has emerged as an important contributor to the economy, and ignored in CMI, is plastics. The Pakistan Plastic Manufacturing Association (PPMA) has around 6,000 upstream and downstream units, employing 0.6 million people.
Plastic sector has a weight of 0.75% in CMI while data is collected from only 142 units. As per PBS’ own numbers, in 2013-14, Pakistan exported 253, 896 tons of plastics products valued at $350.7 million, which was a 7% decrease compared with plastics exports in the previous year.
SBP also pointed out that while exports are down, imports of raw materials witnessed 26.4% growth in this year, which indicates robust growth in manufacturing in this segment.
The last CMI recorded 3,590 factories in Punjab, 1,825 in Sindh, 673 in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and 212 in Balochistan.
At basic prices, textile sector had the highest contribution to GDP of 27.41%, food products and beverages 15.82%, chemicals and chemical products 14.83%, and non-metallic mineral products 7.52%.

Riaz Haq said...

According to a World Bank report, 13.1% or one in eight people living in urban areas live below the national poverty line.

Pakistan has the lowest percentage of urban poverty among the top five most populous countries in South Asia, but the according to the World Bank statistics, the poverty level is till high compared to other Asian countries.

South Asia’s urbanization has been messy as seen in the widespread prevalence of slums. At least 130 million South Asians—equivalent to more than the entire population of Mexico—live in informal urban settlements characterized by poor construction, insecure tenure and underserviced plots.

One big reason is that its urbanization has been messy and hidden, according to the report titled, “Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability.”

South Asia’s policymakers, the World Bank report says, face a choice: Continue on the same path or undertake difficult and appropriate reforms to improve the region’s trajectory of development. It won’t be easy but such actions are essential in making the region’s cities prosperous and livable.

Difficulty in dealing with the pressures that increased urban populations put on infrastructure, basic services, land, housing and the environment have fostered what the report calls “messy and hidden” urbanization. This, in turn, has helped to constrain the region’s full realization of the prosperity and livability benefits of urbanization.

“If managed well, urbanization can lead to sustainable growth by increasing productivity, allowing innovation and new ideas to emerge,” said World Bank Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

“Better cities can help reduce poverty, improve living conditions and create the environment for more and better paying jobs,” she added in releasing the report titled Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability.

Annette Dixon, Vice President for the South Asia Region of the World Bank, said policymakers in the region face a choice: Continue with the same policies or undertake reforms to tap into the unrealized potential of South Asia’s cities, where the urban population increased by 130 million from 2000 to 2011 and is poised to grow by almost 250 million in the next 15 years.

“It is essential to move forward,” Dixon said. “It won’t be easy, but with the right policies and investments, South Asia’s cities can be much more livable and prosperous.”

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan PPP GDP has increased 4.5X since 1990 in terms of current international dollar, according to the World Bank:

1990 GDP $212 billion

2016 GDP $952 billion (IMF puts it at $982 billion)

The Geary–Khamis dollar, more commonly known as the international dollar (Int'l. dollar or Intl. dollar, abbreviation: Int'l.$ or Intl.$), is a hypothetical unit of currency that has the same purchasing power parity that the U.S. dollar had in the United States at a given point in time. It is widely used in economics.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan will be 16th largest economy by 2050: PWC report

Pakistan will become the 20th largest economy among 32 peers by 2030 and will further grow to become the 16th largest by 2050, stated a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one of the world’s largest professional services firms.

The report titled, ‘The Long View: How will the global economic order change by 2050?’ said that emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 with China continuing to lead the pack. It projected GDP for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together currently account for around 85% of global GDP.

Pakistan and Egypt are set to overtake Italy and Canada by 2040, it said.

Fitch affirms Pakistan at ‘B’; outlook deemed stable

“By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a purchasing power parity basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% a year.”

According to the report, by 2030, Pakistan will improve its rank from 24th to 20th and will see a further improvement of four places in the next 20 years, based on projected GDP (at PPP).

India will overtake the US to become the second-largest by 2050, it added.

“China has already overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy in PPP terms, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2040 in PPP terms.

“When looking at GDP measured at market exchange rates, we do not see quite such a radical shift in global economic power, reflecting the lower average price levels in emerging economies.

“But China still emerges as the largest economy in the world before 2030 and India is clearly the third largest in the world by 2050, so there is still a considerable shift in economic power towards Asia in particular whichever measure we use.”

‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’

According to the GDP at PPP measure, Canada is currently ranked as the 17th largest economy, but by 2030 the country will slip to the 18th position and by 2050 to the 22nd spot.

Egypt will move to the 15th place with Pakistan at 16th.

Despite the Canadian economy’s diminished status, the country’s GDP will roughly double to $3.1 trillion by 2050 from its current level.

While PwC’s findings show some of the same countries near the top of the list in 13 years, they also have numerous economies slipping or rising massively by 2030.

Riaz Haq said...

IMF estimates Pakistan's per capita income at Intl$ 5,402.8 (2017, estimate), putting the country's PPP GDP at more than a trillion dollars.

It has risen from 0.56% of the global GDP in 1980 to 0.81% in 2017.

It's currently ranked as the 24th largest economy in the world. PwC forecasts it to rise to the 20th largest by 2030 and 16th largest by 2050, overtaking Italy, Canada and South Korea.

Riaz Haq said...

As of 2019, GDP of India is around of 10 times greater than Pakistan. In nominal terms gap is wider (above 10 times) than ppp terms (below 10 times). India is 5th largest country of the world in nominal method and 3rd largest economy in ppp method. Nominal ranking of Pakistan is 43 and PPP ranking is 25. India's economically largest states Maharashtra has GDP ($334 billion) greater than Pakistan. Margin between these two countries was lowest in 1993 when Nominal GDP of India was 5.43x of Pakistan and highest was in 1973 (13.53x).

Both countries together share 9.78% and 18.15% of total Asia's GDP.

Both countries has been neck-to-neck in gdp per capita terms. Margin is being wider in favour of India since 2009. In 2019, per capita income of India would be 1.62 times all time higher than Pakistan on exchange rate basis. 2006 is the previous year when Pakistan was more richer than India. Both nations are at very lower position in World GDP per capita ranking. rank of India is 145 (nominal) and 126 (PPP). World rank of Pakistan is 156 (nominal) and 140 (PPP). Out of 33 Indian states/UTs, 28 states/UTs are more richer than Pakistan.

India attains maximum gdp growth rate of 9.63% in year 1988 and minimum -5.24% in 1979. Pakistan reached an all time high of 10.35% in 1970 and a record low of 0.47% in 1971. During period 1961 to 2017, Pakistan grew by more than 10% in 3 years while India never. GDP growth rate was negative in four years for India, but Pakistan has never showed negative growth rate.

According to CIA Fackbook sector wise GDP composition of India in 2017 are as follows : Agriculture (15.4%), Industry (23%) and Services (61.5%). Sector wise GDP composition of Pakistan in 2017 are : Agriculture (24.7%), Industry (19.1%) and Services (56.3%).