Pakistan Elections 2018: PTI Prevails Over Corrupt Dynastic Political Elite

Millions of passionate young men and women enthusiastically voted for Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf led by cricket legend Imran Khan to help PTI win against corrupt dynastic political parties in July 25, 2018 elections. Scores of dynastic politicians lost their legislative seats in this election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces. This election came to represent a generational shift in many families in which parents reliably voted for the “electables” based on biradries (clans) and feudal affiliations but the children voted for PTI. It is a resounding rejection of old feudal politics in large parts of the country. The only exception to this shift is probably rural Sindh where the dynastic Pakistan Peoples' Party gained seats.

Young Electorate:

Pakistan's 46 million young voters of ages 18-36 years, up from 41 million in 2013, made the biggest impact on the outcome of the elections this year, according to data from the Election Commission of Pakistan.

Pakistan Voter Population by Age Groups. Source: Dawn

The enthusiasm of PTI's young supporters was on full display at many large PTI pre-election rallies addressed by Imran Khan. These rallies set a new standard  with lots of lighting, singing, music and dancing by hundreds of thousands of boys and girls across Pakistan.

Smartphones and Social Media:

Thousands of smartphone wielding young voters were seen following the politicians around while streaming live footage of what a newspaper report described as "something extraordinary: angry voters asking their elected representatives what have they done for them lately".  Here's an excerpt of a report by South China Morning Post (SCMP):

“Where were you during the last five years?” they ask (Sikandar Hayat) Bosan, complaining about the poor state of roads in the area. An aide can be heard pleading that the leader is feeling unwell. To be held accountable in such a public manner is virtually unheard of for most Pakistani politicians, especially in rural areas where many of the videos have been filmed. There feudal landowners, village elders and religious leaders have for decades been elected unopposed. Many are known to use their power over residents to bend them to their will."

Pakistan Political Parties' Trend in 1970-2018 Elections 

"Electables" Swept Away:

PTI's "Naya Pakistan" campaign inspired the voters to sweep away scores of "electables", dynastic feudal politicians who used to easily win elections at all levels in Pakistan. Among the prominent "electables" who lost are former prime ministers Yousaf Raza Gilani and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi.

Voters also rejected several "electables" who joined PTI just before the elections to improve their chances of winning. These include Nazar Gondal, Firdos Ashiq Awan, Raza Hayat Hiraj and Nadeem Afzal Chan.

Many top leaders and former ministers also lost. The list of losers includes:

1.Ch Nisar Ali Khan
2. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi
3. Tariq Fazal Ch
4. Talal Chaudhey
5. Abid Sher Ali
6. Khawaja Saad Rafique
7. Rana Afzal
8. Awais Leghari
9. Qadir Baloch
10. Ameer Muqam
11. Asfandyar Wali
12. Ghulam Bilour
13. Moulana Fazal ur Rehman
14. Akram Durrani
15. Siraj ul Haq
16. Aftab Sherpao
17. Mehmood Achackzai
18. Qamar Zaman Kaira
19. Yousaf Raza Gilani
20. Nazar Gondal
21. Nadeem Afzal Chan
22. Raza Hayat Hiraj
23. Firdaus Ashiq Awan
24. Farooq Sattar
25. Mustafa Kamal
26. Raza Haroon
27. Zulifqar Mirza
28. Naheed Khan
29. Ijaz Ul Haq

Conspiracy Theories:

Media coverage of Pakistan's July 25, 2018 elections has been dominated by conspiracy theories alleging "orchestration" of the election process by Pakistan's "Deep State".

A recent episode of BBC's Hardtalk with Dawn Group's CEO showed that such allegations fail to withstand any serious scrutiny. The "orchestration" conspiracy theory challenges credulity by asking you to believe that everything starting with Panama Papers leak by International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) was managed by Pakistani intelligence agencies to oust Pakistan's ex prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Wide reporting of open criticism of the military and the judiciary by Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui shows that the "worst ever media censorship" charge is not credible.

While it is possible that the Pakistani military "establishment" attempted to influence the outcome of the elections, there is scant evidence of "orchestration" as alleged by Hameed Haroon of Dawn Media Group and others. While the military is a key player and has the ability to tip the scales to some extent, it lacks the capacity to determine the outcome of the elections. In the end, it's the voters who decide the winners and losers.

Summary:

PTI has achieved a historic win because of the millions of young men and women came out to enthusiastically support and vote for Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf candidates on July 25, 2018.  It has swept away many of the corrupt and dynastic "electables" and brought to the fore a new crop of leaders in Pakistan.  There is new hope in Pakistan but these new leaders face many challenges starting with the economy being hurt by a serious balance of payments crisis. PTI will need to move quickly to address these and other challenges to begin to meet the huge expectations of their passionate but impatient supporters of "Naya Pakistan".

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

ISI Mea Cupla in 2002 Elections

Pakistan 2018 Elections Predictions

Free Speech: Myth vs Reality

Panama Leaks in Pakistan

Nawaz Sharif vs "Khalai Makhlooq"

"Genocide" Headline Skewed All East Pakistan Media Coverage in 1971

Strikingly Similar Narratives of Donald Trump and Nawaz Sharif

Ex CIA Official on Pakistan's ISI

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Panama Leaks in Pakistan; US Defense Secretary in India; ZarbeAzb in Punjab; MQM in Karachi By-elections

What do leaked Panama Papers reveal about Pakistani politicians, judges, businessmen and media owners? Where did PM Nawaz Sharif’s sons get the funds to start shell companies and open offshore accounts when they were just teenagers? How should PM Nawaz Sharif respond to the leaks? Should he accept responsibility and resign as demanded by PTI chief Imran Khan? Or should he come clean, pay back taxes and apologize to the nation?

Has Pakistan Army’s Operation Zarb e Azb finally started in Punjab province? Will the Army succeed in rooting out sectarian terror by Punjab-based LeJ and similar other outfits operating under different names? Is PMLN a reluctant participant? Does the operation have the kind of legal cover available to it in Sindh province? If not why not?

Why is the US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter visiting India? Why did he say US-India relationship broad and global while US-Pakistan ties are narrowly focused on Afghanistan and terrorism? What does India expect to get from it? Defense hardware? US Predator drones? Will India agree to join US Navy patrols to challenge Chinese Navy in disputed waters in South China Sea?

Why was there such an extremely low turn-out in Karachi by-elections? Was it because the PTI candidate withdrew in favor of the MQM candidate? Or was it due to lack of enthusiasm for MQM since the return of Mustafa Kamal?

Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/2aGGar2kmj8





http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x43tgfn_panama-leaks-in-pakistan-us-defense-secretary-in-india-zarbeazb-in-punjab-mqm-in-karachi-by-election_news



Panama Leaks in Pakistan; US Defense Secretary... by ViewpointFromOverseas


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Zardari Corruption Probe in Switzerland

Culture of Corruption in Pakistan

Sectarian Terror in Pakistan

Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan

The Godfather's Vito Corleone: A Metaphor for Uncle Sam?

Mustafa Kamal vs MQM

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

Hindu Holidays in Pakistan; MQM Defections; Trump Victories

Will Pakistan government declare Hindu and Christian Holidays as recently passed by the parliament? Will it advance the rights of minorities in the country? Will the government pursue other measures, including curriculum reform to acknowledge minorities contribution to Pakistan?

Will there be more defections from MQM beyond Mustafa Kamal, Anees Qaimkhani, Saghir Ahmed and Raza Haroon? Who else is waiting in the wings to jump on the bandwagon started by Mustafa Kamal? Khushbakht Shujaat? Haider Abbas Rizvi? Faisal Subzwari? Ishrat ul Ibad? Will ex President Pervez Musharraf be drafted to lead the new party?

Source: Pakistan Census

Will more Trump victories in multiple US states help him gain enough delegates to win the GOP nomination for president on the first ballot at the Republican Convention in Cleveland, Ohio? What if the party denies him the nomination on the 2nd ballot? Will there be riots across the country as Donald Trump has warned? How will such events hurt Trump and the Republican party? Will GOP lose majority in both houses, House of Reps and the Senate, in Washington?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these questions with panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiyjS86H9-g&feature=youtu.be



http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3yu643


Hindu Holidays in Pakistan; MQM Defections... by ViewpointFromOverseas

https://vimeo.com/159614468


Hindu Holidays in Pakistan; MQM Defections; Trump Victories from Ikolachi on Vimeo.


Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan Hindu Population Among World's Fastest Growing

Pakistan Textbooks to Acknowledge Minorities Contribution

MQM-RAW Links

Trump's Phenomenon

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

Trump Rally Violence; US F-16s for Pakistan; Obama on Saudi Ties; Mustafa Kamal Bandwagon; Shahbaz Taseer Release

Why is there increasing violence at rallies held by US Republican presidential front-runner Donald J. Trump? Who’s inciting it? Is it Trump himself egging on his angry supporters to hurt protesters? How will this affect the holding of peaceful elections in 2016? Will it hurt the US image in the international community?

Why did the Obama administration and the US Senate ignore efforts by Indian lobby, including Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fatah, to block the $700 million deal to sell F-16s and other related equipment to Pakistan? Why did the US-Pakistan joint declaration after strategic dialogue in Washington refer to the importance of Kashmir resolution? Is the US willing to anger New Delhi to maintain close ties with its arch-rival Pakistan?

Is Mustafa Kamal bandwagon gathering momentum with more MQM leaders joining the ex mayor of Karachi? How many more will jump on this bandwagon to try and isolate the all-powerful Altaf Husain and his London-based Rabita Committee? Why did Obama not acknowledge “close ties” with America’s “ally” Saudi Arabia? Why did he say “Saudi Arabia must share region with Iran”? Is Obama putting Iran and Saudi Arabia on the same footing now?

What led to the welcome release of Gov Salman Taseer’s son Shahbaz Taseer soon after Mumtaz Qadri execution? Was he recovered by use of Pak military force or by ransom paid to kidnappers by his family?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali H. Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXRvVxAuyaA&feature=youtu.be




https://vimeo.com/158828066

Trump Rally Violence; US F-16s; Obama on Saudi Ties; Mustafa Kamal; Shahbaz Taseer Release from Ikolachi on Vimeo.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3xkiii


Trump Rally Violence; US F-16s; Obama on Saudi... by ViewpointFromOverseas

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

The Trump Phenomenon

US-Pakistan Ties

MQM-RAW Connections

Iran-Saudi Proxy War

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

Mumtaz Qadri Execution; Mustafa Kamal on MQM-RAW Links; Trump vs GOP

What do Mumtaz Qadri’s execution and Punjab women protection bill say about Pakistan’s determination to fight religious extremism? Can the Pakistani state deal with the street power of the religious parties? How will this struggle for the soul of Pakistan play out?

What does the return of ex Karachi mayor Mustafa Kamal mean for Karachi, for MQM’s London leadership and for Pakistan’s national politics? With mounting evidence of MQM-Indian intelligence connections and crimes of MQM’s militant wing, will MQM restructure and reform from within? Will Karachi and Pakistan will be better served by it after reform?

London Met Police Document Linking MQM With RAW

Why has the GOP establishment turned against its own leading presidential candidate Donald J. Trump? Will there be a contested GOP convention this year? Would the Republican establishment rather lose the 2016 November general election than help Trump win the White House?

Viewpoint from Overseas host Faraz Darvesh discusses these question with Pakistan’s Dawn News TV anchor Amir Abbas, MQM USA’s Wasim Zaidi and regular panelists Misbah Azam and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5IsFNqFZcY



http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3w85iu_mumtaz-qadri-execution-mustafa-kamal-on-mqm-raw-links-trump-vs-gop_news



Mumtaz Qadri Execution; Mustafa Kamal on MQM... by ViewpointFromOverseas

https://vimeo.com/157961961

Mumtaz Qadri Execution; Mustafa Kamal on MQM-RAW Links; Trump vs GOP from Ikolachi on Vimeo.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Religious Extremism in Pakistan

MQM-RAW Connection

Gangs of Karachi

Understanding the Trump Phenomenon

Trump's Muslim Ban

Talk4Pak Think Tank

VPOS Youtube Channel

VPOS Vimeo Channel

VPOS Dailymotion Channel

Karachi Tops List of World's Largest Cities

With rapid urbanization in Pakistan, Karachi has become the world's biggest city with a metro area population of 18 million people, according to Citymayors stats published recently.

Karachi (Urdu: کراچی, Sindhi: ڪراچي, Karāchi) is followed by Mumbai, Delhi, Buenos Aires, Seoul, Jakarta, Manila, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Istanbul making up the top 10 list. Bangladesh capital Dhaka is at number 12, barely missing a top 10 slot. Of these, Mumbai, Dhaka and Delhi also have the dubious distinction of making Mercer's list of world's dirtiest cities. In another survey, Mercer has ranked Karachi as the fourth cheapest city for expatriates.



The list of the world’s largest cities, by land area, is headed by New York Metro, with a total area of 8,700 square kilometers. Tokyo/Yokohama is in second place with almost 7,000 square kilometers, followed by ten cities from the United States. Mumbai (Bombay), with a population density of almost 30,000 people per square kilometer, is the world’s most crowded city. Kolkata (Calcutta), Karachi and Lagos follow behind.



In 2008, the US based NPR radio did a series on Karachi titled "Karachi: The Urban Frontier". It highlighted the following facts about Karachi:

1. Karachi is built along a natural harbor facing the Arabian Sea, and this central location between the Middle East and India has made Karachi an important trading port for hundreds of years.

2. Karachi encompasses both its old seafront district and a sprawling web of commercial and residential development that covers almost 1,400 square miles. Its contemporary landscape spans skyscrapers, posh golf resorts, congested roadways and sprawling squatter colonies.

3. The Port of Karachi handles 60 percent of Pakistan's cargo, and the Karachi Stock Exchange is one of Asia's most active trading markets (The data for 1999-2009 shows that Karachi share market significantly outperformed Hong Kong, Mumbai and Shanghai markets). The city's main industries include shipping, trade, finance, banking, information technology, manufacturing, real estate, media and education.

4. Like any big city, it has its share of problems. Pollution, crime, corruption and political volatility are just some of the issues confronting the 12 million to 18 million "Karachiites" who call this overcrowded city home. Karachi is 60 times larger than it was when Pakistan was created in 1947. And with the population growing at an annual rate of 6 percent, one of the biggest challenges for city officials is managing the tensions and violence that often flare along ethnic and religious lines.

5. Karachi is growing so fast that estimates of its population range from 12 million to 18 million. The country's financial capital is also a city where about half the population lives in illegal houses.

Here are some figures for Karachi population I received from the editors of citymayors.com:

YEAR Urban Population
1856 56,875
1872 56,753
1881 73,560
1891 105,199
1901 136,297
1911 186,771
1921 244,162
1931 300,799
1941 435,887
1951 1,068,459
1961 1,912,598
1972 3,426,310
1981 5,208,132
1998 9,269,265
2006 13,969,284
2007 14,500,000

Since Karachi population has been growing at about 4-6% a year recently, the 18 million figure for Karachi in 2009 makes sense.

The mayors of the world’s twenty largest cities are each responsible for more people than most national prime ministers. For example, London, ranked 20th in the world, has more residents than nations like Paraguay, Denmark, New Zealand or Ireland, and if Karachi, globally the largest city, was a country it would rank above Greece, Portugal or Hungary. The combined population of the world’s eight megacities - cities with more than 10 million inhabitants - comfortably exceeds that of Germany.



Urbanization is not just a side effect of economic growth; it is an integral part of the process, according to the World Bank. With the robust economic growth averaging 7 percent and availability of millions of new jobs created between 2000 and 2008, there has been increased rural to urban migration in Pakistan to fill the jobs in growing manufacturing and service sectors. The level of urbanization in Pakistan is now the highest in South Asia, and its urban population is likely to equal its rural population by 2030, according to a report titled ‘Life in the City: Pakistan in Focus’, released by the United Nations Population Fund. Pakistan ranks 163 and India at 174 on a list of over 200 countries compiled by Nationmaster. The urban population now contributes about three quarters of Pakistan's gross domestic product and almost all of the government revenue. The industrial sector contributes over 27% of the GDP, higher than the 19% contributed by agriculture, with services accounting for the rest of the GDP.



A 2008 report by UN Population Fund says the share of the urban population in Pakistan almost doubled from 17.4 percent in 1951 to 32.5 percent in 1998. The estimated data for 2005 shows the level of urbanization as 35 per cent, and CIA Factbook puts it at 36% in 2008. An expected positive consequence of the increasing urbanization of society in Pakistan will be the creation of over 100 million strong middle class by 2030, making Pakistan's grass roots democracy more viable and responsive to the needs of the people. This large urban population will not only create a domestic market for goods and services, but it can create a skilled work force that can be the engine of economic growth and source of innovation.

According to the 1998 census, Sindh is the most urbanized province with 49 percent percent of the population living in urban centers. NWFP is the least urbanized province with only 17 percent of its population living in urban areas.

With Pakistan already the most urbanized country in South Asia, Karachi's population has been growing at a rate of over 4 percent a year for decades, according to the editors at Citymayors.com. Karachi now accounts for about 12 percent of the nation's population, and Mustafa Kamal as its mayor is accountable to a larger population than the presidents or prime ministers of many nations of the world. As the nation continues to experience increasing rural-to-urban migration, the jobs of the big city mayors in Pakistan, particularly Karachi and Lahore, are becoming significantly more important and challenging than generally recognized. How these mayors deal with these challenges will largely determine the fate of the nation, in terms of education, health care, housing, transportation, industrial and service sectors' growth, job growth and overall economic activities, as well as the future of democracy.

When visitors see a squatter city in India or Pakistan or Bangladesh, they observe overwhelming desperation: rickety shelters, little kids working or begging, absence of sanitation, filthy water and air. However, there are many benefits of rural to urban migration for migrants' lives, including reduction in abject poverty, empowerment of women, increased access to healthcare and education and other services. Historically, cities have been driving forces in economic and social development. As centers of industry and commerce, cities have long been centers of wealth and power. They also account for a disproportionate share of national income. The World Bank estimates that in the developing world, as much as 80 percent of future economic growth will occur in towns and cities. Nor are the benefits of urbanization solely economic. Urbanization is associated with higher incomes, improved health, higher literacy, and improved quality of life. Other benefits of urban life are less tangible but no less real: access to information, diversity, creativity, and innovation.

In a recent interview published by Wired Magazine, Stewart Brand, "the pioneering environmentalist, technology thinker", and founder of the Whole Earth Catalog focused on the positive aspects of urban slums. Brand also made a counterintuitive case that the booming slums and squatter cities around the major urban centers in the developing world are net positives for poor people and the environment. Brand's arguments make a lot of sense, as long as there are representative city governments responsive to the growing needs of the new and old city residents.

Here's a video clip of Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh saying "if there was a Nobel Prize for dirt and filth, India would win it hands down":



Related Links:

Karachi Tops Mumbai in Stock Performace
Eleven Days in Karachi
Citymayors website

Pakistan Most Urbanized in South Asia

Karachi: The Urban Frontier

Do Asia's Urban Slums Offer Hope?

Orangi is Not Dharavi

Climate Change Could Flood Karachi Coastline

Karachi Fourth Cheapest For Expats

Karachi City Government

Karachi Dreams Big

Karachi's Business and Political Elite Welcome Musharraf

President Musharaf found a friendly crowd in Karachi during the last weekend visit which coincided with the first anniversary of the Red Mosque raid in Islamabad. As the President met with Karachi-ites, a series of bomb blasts in Pakistan's largest city served as a reminder that there is no escaping the worsening security situation that plagues the entire nation.

At a gala reception in President Musharraf's honor by Karachi's business community, business leaders including Khalid Tawab, Mian Zahid Hussain, Abdul Haseeb Khan, Majyd Aziz warmly welcomed the President and reiterated their full confidence and support for him. Governor Sindh Dr. Ishartul Ibad Khan and City Nazim Mustafa Kamal also joined in the welcome, according to Karachi's Business Recorder newspaper.

The President thanked the community and called upon the industrialists to help promote rapid industrialization, investment and jobs creation in the country. He met with a delegation of leading industrialists and chairmen of industrial estates, which called on him at the Governor's House in Karachi on Monday. Sindh Governor Dr Ishratul Ibad Khan was also present on the occasion. The members of the industrialists delegation told the President that the number of factories at Nooriabad Industrial Estate in Dadu has grown from 17 in 1999 to 70 now.

Pakistan's tax base has grown with rapid economic growth over the last 9 years. The President lauded the performance of the Federal Board of Revenue and said that tax collection had crossed Rs 1.02 trillion in 2007 from Rs. 500 billion in 1999. With the revenue growth target for the next five years set at an ambitious 25% per year, the tax base and collection efforts need to continue to expand. Pakistan needs to build confidence to stop flight of capital and grow its exports, he added.

Why is it important to grow Pakistan's tax base and revenue collection, now more than ever? Government spending will jump 30 percent to 2.01 trillion rupees ($29.8 billion) next fiscal year from 1.55 trillion rupees in the previous 12 months, according to acting finance minster Naveed Qamar's budget proposals for 2008-2009. Outlays on subsidies on items including food, power and fertilizer are forecast at 295 billion rupees.

Confusion over who is managing Pakistan's $146 billion economy has deterred much-needed foreign investment, which has already fallen this fiscal year for the first time since at least 2004, according to Bloomberg.com. Standard & Poor's, which reduced its debt rating for Pakistan on May 15, said in mid-June that the government's revenue and expenditure targets faced "significant implementation risks." Pakistan's rating would be lowered if fiscal and current account deficits do not improve, S&P said in a statement.

As part of his tour, the President also visited the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), along with Governor Ishratul Ibad where he met with the State Bank Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar. The State Bank of Pakistan on May 23 unexpectedly raised borrowing costs by 1.5 percentage points to 12 percent, the second increase this year, to curb runaway inflation. "Higher interest rates and a steeper drop in growth still lie ahead," Philip Wyatt, a senior economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong told Bloomberg. "The fiscal funding problem is precarious and unsustainable in current global conditions."

Among the political leaders, the President met with Pakistan Muslim League (Functional) Chief Pir Pagara, who called on him. The details of this meeting were not immediately available.

The President emphasized the need for national consensus in Pakistan to solve the pressing problems of deteriorating economy, political instability, terrorism and growing threat of Talibanization. As the President talked about the need for national consensus, the Sindh information minister appeared before the media and condemned the President and the City Nazim. None of the Sind government's PPP ministers attended any events hosted in Musharraf’s honor either. The Sind Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah instead chose to host a reception in honor of the Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Friday in his hometown, as reported in the Pakistani media.

The growing rift between the PPP and MQM does not augur well for the city of Karachi or Sind province. Nor does it give hope for the badly needed economic recovery for the nation. Let's hope that the Sind political leadership reflects on the gravity of the current crises to rise above petty politics. The Sindh government must address the real day-to-day problems faced by all Sindhis, rural and urban.

Here's a brief video clip of the President's address in Karachi: