Pakistan Political Mess Emboldens Taliban

Pakistani coalition government has splintered, the Taliban have stepped up their brazen suicide bombings claiming more innocent lives in Pakistan, and new violent protests followed by Indian government crackdown in Kashmir are making the headlines. It has hardly been a week since President Musharraf's exit and the four-headed monster of political, economic and security crises within Pakistan and, rising tensions in Kashmir, is raising its ugly head. Who will slay this fire-breathing monster? How will a sense of security and stability be restored for Pakistanis? How will rising tensions in Kashmir be handled? These are the questions that are begging for answers.

Islamabad Government:
A powerful, competent and honest federal government in Islamabad is the first pre-requisite to bring about any semblance of good governance to solve the multi-faceted challenges of political instability, faltering economy, growing militancy, and rising tensions in Kashmir. With the strong and committed support of the Pakistani military for the current civilian government, the first attribute of "powerful" is possible and seems likely to be achieved, in spite of a fractious parliament. However, being powerful is only one of three requirements for Islamabad to be effective. The second and third pre-requisites of competence and honesty will most likely be in short supply with Asif Ali Zardari as the choice of the PPP for the president, and Yousuf Raza Gillani as the prime minister.


Taliban Threat:
The growing militancy by the Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan is going to be a huge challenge for both the government and the people of Pakistan. While a ban on Taliban is a good start, it is no more than a token. As the world holds Messrs Zardari and Gillani responsible, the chances of success against the Taliban will really depend on whether the vast majority of Pakistanis stop being ambivalent about the Taliban and join the fight against them. The new leadership team of Zardari and Gilani must use all its resources and powers of persuasion to rally the people of Pakistan against the Taliban and their dastardly campaign of murder and mayhem on the streets of Pakistani cities. People need to be reminded that the 4000-plus victims of "jihad" in Pakistan over the last year have been Muslims with no connection at all to America. People need to understand that the Taliban are waging an armed struggle to remake society. They will keep fighting this war even if America were to miraculously disappear into thin air. The people of Pakistan need to be convinced that the Taliban perpetrating massive atrocities in the name of Islam are criminals and thugs. They are no friends of Islam, Muslims or Pakistan and they must be stopped, not for America’s sake, but for the sake of Pakistan. The anti-American attitudes in Pakistan must not be allowed in get in the way of fighting the terrorists who target innocent Pakistani civilians to achieve their nefarious political aims. Please read my post about the Taliban's atrocities to get the full picture of Taliban’s ambitions, people's ambivalence and the ineptitude of our current leadership.


Economic Revival:
Pakistan's economy has returned to the bad old days and the rupee has been hitting new lows since the assumption of power by the current civilian government. It is of utmost importance that the Pakistan economy be revived to address the basic challenges of livelihood, food and energy. The best way to accomplish this task is to restore some sense of political stability and to recruit a competent team of experts on economy and empower them to develop and carry out the nation's economic agenda.

Asif Ali Zardari and Yousuf Raza Gilani are carrying a heavy burden. They must be supported by the people of Pakistan in dealing with the extraordinary challenges the nation faces today. It is also important they prove their critics wrong by slaying the four-headed monster trying to devour Pakistan. They must not let history repeat itself by letting down Pakistanis. The future of Pakistani nation and the fate of democracy in Pakistan depend on how well they perform.

Gilani Wants "Democracy Dividend" For Pakistan

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani of Pakistan wants to "deliver democracy dividend" to the people. To understand the term "democracy dividend" you'd have to think of the 1990s in the United States. When the cold war ended, there was a "peace dividend" that went to the people of the United States. It came in the form of defense budget cuts that freed funds to stimulate the US economy and wipe out the budget deficits during the Clinton administration. It seems like a very distant memory now as the US debts are piling up again and the war in Iraq continues to be a serious drain on the US economy.

So what does Mr. Gillani have in mind about "democracy dividend" in Pakistan? Talking with Zahid Husain of the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Gilani said further U.S. assistance "will help deliver a democracy dividend to the people" after Pakistan held landmark elections for a new parliament in February. He also said further aid is needed to help provide political and economic stability as the nation seeks to fight terrorism. Pakistan has received more than $11 billion from the U.S., most of which has gone to the military, since it joined the U.S.-led fight against terrorism following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Mr. Gilani didn't specify how much further assistance Pakistan is seeking. He made his case for further aid during a recent meeting in the Middle East with President Bush.

So what does Mr. Gillani offer the US in return for further assistance? The prime minister said Pakistani forces would remain deployed along the border. And he emphasized the need to increase the strength of Afghan troops on the Afghan side of the border, saying there is an inadequate force to protect against border crossings.

Mr. Gilani said he would maintain a working relationship with Mr. Musharraf for now. "I have no problem working with him, but will go by the party's decision," the prime minister said.

Based on the contents of the Wall Street Journal interview, it seems Mr. Gillani is willing to work with President Musharraf and continue to fight the war on terror alongside the US. However, convincing the US of Pakistan's seriousness would be difficult. As widely reported, there are efforts to undermine President Musharraf's powers in a new package presented by the PPP. The other irritant will be Pakistan's decision to make deals with the militants in the tribal and settled areas in defiance of the US wishes.

Gillani Acts On Wheat, Energy Crises

With global commodity prices and inflation hitting new highs, Pakistan and other emerging economies are faced with serious challenges. The rising inflation of staples such as wheat has already claimed Pakistan's former ruling coalition as a victim. Many other developing countries' governments are likely to fall as well unless these challenges are addressed effectively.

Knowing the importance of wheat for Pakistanis, the government of Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani has begun to take steps to alleviate the wheat crisis. The first steps, announced yesterday by Ministry of Food and Agriculture, deal with providing incentives to farmers to grow more wheat. The price of 40Kg of wheat has been raised by more than 20 percent to Rs. 625.00 (US$9.90) from Rs 510.00 (US$7.90). The government plans to build a 5-million-tonne strategic reserve from the 2007/08 crop, but farmers had rejected the procurement price of 510 rupees per 40 kg as below domestic and international market levels. In addition to price support, the government has announced support for agriculture equipment purchases with the first batch of 50 bulldozers (out of total 300) arriving from China in July this year. These would be put on trial for two months in difficult terrain of NWFP and Balochistan to increase wheat production.

Pakistan saw a surge in wheat and flour prices in the domestic market after a shortage in September and had to import nearly 1.6 million tonnes in spite of producing 23.3 million tonnes of wheat in the 2006/07 crop year.

The south Asian country of 160 million people consumes about 22 million tonnes of wheat a year, according to Reuters.

For the financial year 2007/08, the government has fixed a wheat output target of 24 million tonnes, but farmers and food ministry officials say that target is impossible to achieve and estimate output will be 21 million to 22 million tonnes.

Industry officials say lower-than-expected output may force the government to import between 1 million and 2 million tonnes for stocks and domestic needs.

In addition to the wheat crisis, the other major crisis angering Pakistanis is the continuing brown-outs resulting from 2500-3000MW electricity shortage. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is all set to ink the first-ever power sector pact of his government with a Chinese company, Dong Fong, today for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million at Chichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura), sources close to the Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) managing director told Business Recorder, Pakistan's Financial Daily Newspaper.

Business Recorder is reporting that its sources have expressed serious concern over the cost escalation, saying lower project cost could have been negotiated by a team of experts. The Dong Fong was already in the process of setting up thermal power plant of 450-500 MW at Nandipur (Gujranwala), though several questions had been raised by the Euro Dynamics International, a Lahore-based firm, that the second lower bidder joint venture of Chinese company does not meet the qualification and requirement of combined cycle plant.

Earlier, former prime minister Shaukat Aziz had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and the Alstom-Marubini to set up 450-500 MW thermal power plant at Chichoki Mallian, but a couple of months ago, the pact was terminated when the sponsors did not come up with tariff petition.

Notwithstanding allegations of cost escalation and possible corruption, these are all steps in the right direction by Mr. Gillani's new government. The real question is: Would these steps be sufficient to address the severity of the two crises? Or do we need a more comprehensive plan of action beyond these first steps? A comprehensive, long range plan that addresses the underlying issues of the impact of growing population, increasing global demand and rising inflation that show no signs of abating? Let's wait and see what Mr. Gillani's "first 100" days deliver.