Possession of nuclear weapons is considered "the ultimate deterrent" by eminent international geopolitical analysts like Professor John Mearsheimer of Chicago University. However, it appears that Mearsheimer has also raised questions about the survivability of a small land-based nuclear arsenal in the event of a first strike by a nuclear-armed adversary. Is this likely to tempt India to launch first strike against Pakistan's nuclear assets?
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| Pakistan's Nuclear Triad |
In Mearsheimer's broader deterrence framework, small, land-based nuclear forces are inherently vulnerable to a disarming conventional or nuclear first strike. Because Pakistan’s arsenal is primarily land-based (alongside air-delivered systems), a major Indian military breakthrough or precision strike campaign could threaten the survivability of those weapons. This creates dangerous pressure on Islamabad to deploy or use its nuclear weapons early in a crisis rather than risk losing them.
Pakistan's worries are reinforced by a Stimson Center poll that vast majority of Indians, including those who oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi, believe that nuclear war is "winnable". The respondents want their country to build a bigger nuclear arsenal than China and Pakistan combined. Responding to the clamor for more nukes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2019 that Indian nuclear weapons were not kept as mere showpieces. Strong belief about India's ability to win a nuclear war against Pakistan cuts across party lines with 91% of those who support Mr. Modi and 85% of those who don't.
These fears about the possibility of Indian first strike have forced Pakistan to build a full-spectrum deterrence, including a "nuclear triad" with air and sea-based launch capability to retaliate against India's first strike. Much of Pakistan's nuclear force utilizes mobile launchers (such as the Shaheen and Ghauri series) that can disperse and hide across varied terrain during a crisis, complicating an adversary's targeting. Pakistan has also constructed deeply buried and hardened underground storage and launch facilities to protect warheads and command structures from a disabling attack.
By having a survivable nuclear deterrent, Pakistan can drastically reduce the likelihood of major war with India because the cost of mutual destruction would be too high. A region such as South Asia where both states have a survivable deterrent would be stable.
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2 comments:
MAD
AA: "MAD"
Yes, it is Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) to ensure peace and stability in South Asia
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