Friday, June 4, 2021

Surging Food Prices Push Pakistan Overall Inflation Rate to 10.9% in May 2021

Food prices in Pakistan rose 14.8% in May while the average inflation rate for July-May period of the current fiscal year came in at 8.83%,  according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  Meanwhile, global food prices have surged by 40% in May,  the highest rate in a decade, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Poor harvest due to bad weather and COVID19 pandemic-related disruptions in production and distribution are being blamed. 

Global Food Prices Soaring. Source: FAO via Financial Times

In Pakistan, chicken prices shot up by 60%, followed by 55% increase in prices of eggs, 31% rise in prices of mustard oil and wheat prices were up by 30% year over a year, according to the PBS. Globally, prices of cereals (including wheat) jumped 37%, vegetable oil 124%, meat 10% and sugar 57%.  

Food Items Seeing Double Digit Price Surges. Source: Bloomberg

Higher imports of food items at high prices and increased shipping costs have added to Pakistan's food inflation woes. Among the factors contributing to elevated food prices are drought in South America and record purchases by China. Cooking oils have soared too on demand for biofuel.

“We have very little room for any production shock. We have very little room for any unexpected surge in demand in any country,” Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, warned in a phone interview with Bloomberg. “Any of those things could push prices up further than they are now, and then we could start getting worried.”

Developing countries such as Pakistan where an average consumer spends 40% or more on food will be particularly hit by surging food prices. A jump of 37% in cereals is of special concern because people in poor nations get more than 50% of their daily caloric intake from cereals. Early reports indicate that Pakistan is seeing a record production of wheat with an increase of two million tons to 27.3 million tons from 25.3 million tons last year.  

Caloric Intake From Cereals. Source: Bloomberg

In West Africa, the prices of staples are up 40% over a five-year average. Countries such as Nigeria, are experiencing food inflation of 23%, the highest level in 15 years, according to the UN World Food Programme. The WFP also warned of vulnerable countries faced with soaring prices, including Lebanon, where food inflation soared to 400% last year on the back of a currency crisis, the pandemic and the after-effects of the Beirut port explosion. Food price inflation in Lebanon is still more than 200%. Countries such as Syria and Sudan are also struggling with food inflation of more than 200 per cent, the WFP said. The impact will be worsening poverty and hunger and slower recovery from the pandemic, according to the Financial Times.

Debt-to-GDP Increase During Pandemic. Source: Business Standard

Pakistan is among world's top 10 food producing countries. After a wheat and sugarcane shortfall last year, there are reports of record production of wheat and corn in Pakistan this year. Higher domestic production will hopefully help contain food price inflation in coming months, 

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Riaz Haq said...

India’s public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to increase to a record high of 89.3 per cent in 2020, breaking the previous high of 84.2 per cent in 2003. The ratio was 72.3 per cent in 2019 and 68.8 per cent five years ago in 2015, according to the data from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (WEO).

This makes India the most indebted major economy after Brazil and Argentina among the emerging markets. In South Asia, India now becomes the most indebted country after Bhutan and Sri Lanka and worse off than Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal.

Shams N. said...

For Pakistan, it is imperative to look at alternate sources of calories, sources that work well in its mostly desert-like, low rainfall, agriculture layout. Sindh and Balochistan that get less water are quite suitable for Cassava plantation.

Moin A. said...

What about surging food prices in USA. Halal Goat meat is shot up to $14 a pound. And a veggie burger in McDonalds or Burger King costs about $6-7 each. Gas is + $3 a gallon.

Why you guys don’t focus on issues where you live instead of Pakistan where neither of you plan to go live.

Suhail H. said...

Once a Pakistani, always a Pakistani. Living abroad does not change their Pakistani mindset. All the journalists of Pakistani origin I know, keep writing about Pakistan issues.

Riaz Haq said...

Moin: "Why you guys don’t focus on issues where you live instead of Pakistan where neither of you plan to go live"

Food price inflation is a global issue. It hits us here in America.

But it hits developing countries like Pakistan harder because the people there spend a much bigger share of income on food purchases.

In Pakistan, an average household spends about 40% of its income on food.

Riaz Haq said...

KEY POINTS of Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21

COVID rendered 20 million people jobless, says Tarin.

However, working population is back to 53m out of the total 55m labour force when the pandemic began, he says.
Economy grew more than the government's, IMF's and World Bank's expectations.
Agriculture growth measured at 2.77% despite large-scale losses in cotton crop.
Exports increased, but remittances grew by a significant 29%, providing a boost to forex reserves.
FBR collected an unprecedented Rs4.2 trillion in 11 months of the outgoing year.
Pakistan's stock market is currently the best-performing in Asia, fourth-best in the world, he says.
The poor will be number one priority for us in tomorrow's budget, says Tarin about government's economic priorities.
IT industry growing by 40-50%, we want them to grow by 100%, he says.
Power is a "black hole" sector; we overbuilt and are now making crippling capacity payments, says finance minister as he speaks on power reforms.
FBR harassment has to end; audits will be conducted by third parties, says Tarin.


As Pakistan unveiled the Economic Survey 2020-21, the government announced it beat many earlier projections as the economy was able to stage a V-shaped recovery. Here are the salient features of the survey, according to AHL Research.

Pakistan's GDP provisionally grew 3.9% during FY21. Growth for FY20 was revised down to -0.47% from -0.38% earlier.

For FY21, GDP at current market prices stood at Rs47.7 trillion.

Services sector saw a growth of 4.43%, mainly on the back of wholesale and retail trade segment (8.37%), and finance and insurance sector (7.84%).

Agriculture sector registered a growth of 2.77%.

Wheat witnessed a growth of 8.1%, rice 13.6%, while maize recorded a growth of 7.38%.

Sugarcane recorded the second-highest ever production at 22%. On the other hand, cotton witnessed a negative growth of 22.8% resulting in 15.6% decline in cotton ginning.

At the end of March 2021, Pakistan’s total public debt stood at Rs38 trillion. The domestic debt amounted to Rs25.6 trillion (up 13.8% YoY) while foreign public debt was Rs12.5 trillion.

Average National Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 8.83%.

Remittances increased by 29% YoY, amounting to $26.7 billion, as per 11MFY21 SBP data.

Pakistan’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) hit $1.55 billion during 10MFY21, a decline of 32% YoY.

Pakistan saw a current account surplus of $773 million in 10MFY21 against a deficit of $4,657 million recorded in the same period last year. During 10MFY21 total imports recorded a growth of 8% YoY to $48,625 million. Exports clocked in at $25,889 million, posting a jump of 6% YoY.

Country recorded a trade deficit of $22,736 million compared to a deficit of $20,599 million in 10MFY21, seeing an increase of 11%.

Per capita income for FY21 stood at Rs246,414 (+14.6% YoY). In dollar terms, it was $1,543 (+13.4% YoY).

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Proposes #Budget to Boost #Economic Growth to 4.8% in 2021-22. Total spending: 8.4 trillion PKR vs 7.1 trillion PKR this year. Development budget: Rs. 900 billion, up from Rs. 650 billion. Revenue up 25% to 7.9 trillion rupees($51 billion). #GDP

Pakistan plans to spend its way out of the pandemic-induced slump, with a new budget that seeks to put more money in the hands of people and boost economic activity.

The federal government proposes to raise salaries of government employees by 10% in the year beginning July 1, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said in his budget speech in Islamabad on Friday. Taxes on some equity as well as banking transactions will be pared or abolished, he said.

The giveaways notwithstanding, Tarin targets to narrow the budget gap to 6.3% of gross domestic product from 7.1% of GDP this year, less than 1 to 1.5 percentage points the minister estimated last month.

He aims to achieve that by ramping up revenue collection by 25% to 7.9 trillion rupees ($51 billion) in the next fiscal year. Of that, 5.8 trillion rupees would be mopped up from taxes, compared with 4.7 trillion rupees this year, he said.

The budget is an opportunity for Tarin to strengthen Pakistan’s fragile economy, which is currently under a $6 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund. A drop in coronavirus cases is allowing the nation to reopen slowly, paving the way for demand to kick in.

The South Asian nation forecast a GDP growth of 4.8% for the next fiscal year, compared with an estimated 3.9% this year. The nation, which recorded a rare GDP contraction last year, targets to achieve a growth of 7% in the next two years, Tarin said.

“It is a spending-led confidence building budget exercise,” said Mohammed Sohail, chief executive officer of Topline Securities Pakistan. “The biggest challenge will be to deal with IMF and rising commodity prices.”

Total spending for next fiscal year pegged at 8.4 trillion rupees vs 7.1 trillion rupees last year
As much as 900 billion rupees will be earmarked for development spending by the federal government , compared with 650 billion rupees this year
Proposes to reduce capital gains tax on stocks to 12.5% from 15%
To abolish withholding tax on equity trading as well as banking transactions
Proposes to reduce sales tax on locally-made cars of 850cc power
To reduce tax on completely knocked-down units of imported electric vehicles
Expects to raise 560 billion rupees through global bonds including Eurobond and Sukuk
Proposes to provide loans on concession to farmers and small businesses

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan earmarks PKR 3.06 tr ($20 billion) for #debt servicing (including interest payments) in the next fiscal year 2021-22, up from Rs 2.94 tr ($18.9 billion) this year. Fed govt allocated Rs 1.6 tr ($10.26 billion) for #foreign debt payments in FY22.

The government has allocated Rs3.060 trillion for debt servicing (including interest payments) in the next fiscal year 2021-22.

During the current fiscal year, Rs2.94tr had been earmarked for the same.

The federal government allocated a sum of Rs1.6tr for foreign loans repayment, short-term loans and other advances in FY22. Rs1.49tr has been allocated for debt servicing in the current fiscal year, however, revised estimates placed it at Rs1.06tr.

Foreign Loans repayment for FY22 will be Rs1.42tr against Rs841 million for the current fiscal year. For short-term foreign credits, Rs74.4bn has been allocated for the next fiscal year. This year, revised estimates for short-term foreign credits are at Rs121.9bn.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey of 2020-21, total public debt was recorded at Rs38,006bn at end March 2021, registering an increase of Rs1,607bn during first nine months of current fiscal year (9MFY21) which was much less when compared with the increase of Rs2,499bn witnessed during the same period last year.

The increase in total public debt during 9MFY21 was even lower than the federal government borrowing of Rs2,065bn for financing the fiscal deficit. The differential is primarily attributable to appreciation of the Pak rupee against the US dollar by around nine per cent which led to a decrease in the value of external public debt when converted into the local currency.

Debt from multilateral and bilateral sources cumulatively constituted over 80pc of external public debt portfolio at end March 2021. A set of reforms initiated by the government to improve the economy has brought strong support from multilateral development partners during the last two years. This is expected to strengthen confidence and catalyse additional support from development partners’ public debt in the coming years which will also help in reducing the pressure on domestic sources.

Pakistan is availing the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) for a period of 20-months (May 2020-December 2021) which will help defer the debt servicing impact to the tune of around US$3.7bn during this period.

The government remained within the benchmarks and thresholds defined in the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) at the end of December 2020.

The Economic Survey claims that Pakistan has witnessed one of the smallest increases in its public debt during the Covid-19 pandemic. Global public debt to GDP ratio increased by 13 percentage points – from 84pc in 2019 to 97pc in 2020 – whereas Pakistan’s Debt-to-GDP ratio witnessed a minimal increase of 1.7 percentage points and stood at 87.6pc at end June 2020 compared with 85.9pc at end June 2019.

Interest servicing was recorded at Rs2,104bn during 9MFY21 against the annual budgeted estimate of Rs2,946bn. Domestic interest payments were recorded at Rs1,934bn and constituted around 92pc of total interest servicing during 9MFY21 which is mainly attributable to higher volume of domestic debt in total public debt portfolio.

On a full year basis (2020-21), interest servicing is expected to remain below the budgeted estimates primarily due to extension of DSSI from January to June 2021, appreciation of Pak rupee against the US dollar and lower interest servicing on account of National Sav­ings Schemes due to withdrawals against discontinued prize bonds.

Riaz Haq said...

JP Morgan – a global leader in financial services – has issued a report about the investment climate in Pakistan. Titled ‘Pakistan: Reassessing the Investment Thesis’, the report highlighted that there have been positive developments in Pakistan in recent months.


دنیا کے بڑے سرمایہ کاری کے مالیاتی ادارے JP Morgan نے اپنی رپورٹ جاری کردی۔اپنےسرمایہ کاروں کا کہا گیا کہ پاکستان میں سرمایہ کاری کریں یہاں معاشی حالات بہتر ہورہے ہیں۔جے پی مورگن نے 2021 میں پاکستان کی جی ڈی پی کی شرح 4.7 کی پیشگوئی کی ہے۔آئندہ سال معاشی حجم 329ارب ڈالرہوگا

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan's top 100 Companies earnings rise to all time high
Source: Bloomberg

They are almost double if compare them with the previous year.
Isn't it Amazing? Esp. In covid!

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan offers #corn (maize) on world market at $282 a ton, $20 cheaper than #India's price. World grain prices have jumped 35% since the beginning of this year. #Pakistan #maize production is 8.465 million tons, up 7.4%from 7.883 million tons last year

Pakistan has emerged as a strong competitor to India in the global corn (maize) market, offering its produce at over $20 a tonne cheaper than India in the global market, especially South-East Asia, an Indian media outlet reported.

“Pakistan is offering corn at $282 (PKR44,200) a tonne, cost and freight, Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam. This is lower than the price quoted by any Indian trader,” said a New Delhi-based trading source, speaking on condition of anonymity. The source said Pakistan traders were making the offer as the neighbouring country looks to export at least one million tonnes of corn this year.

Currently, corn futures are quoted at $6.59 a bushel on Chicago Board of Trade. China’s huge appetite, strong US sales and Brazil shipping woes have all lifted corn prices this year. The cereal has gained over 35 per cent since the beginning of this year.

“We are offering corn to South-East Asia at $305 (PKR47,700) a tonne. But demand has slowed due to quite a few reasons,” said M Madan Prakash, Agri Commodities’ Exporters Association President. Compared with India and Pakistan, Brazil is offering corn at $295 (PKR646,22) and US at $306 (PKR47,900) a tonne free-on-board (FOB) with prices increasing by 63 per cent and 90 per cent, respectively, from a year ago.

Riaz Haq said...

#Pakistan Boosting #Food Imports as #Afghan Demand Pressures #Prices. “If demand from Afghanistan increases and we don’t have sufficient stocks, it will put pressure on prices,” Pakistan’s Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin. #inflation #Afghanistan

Pakistan is stepping up food imports as it sees a surge in demand for staples in neighboring Afghanistan inflating prices at home.

“If demand from Afghanistan increases and we don’t have sufficient stocks, it will put pressure on prices,” Pakistan’s Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said in a text message. “So we have made arrangements.”

Riaz Haq said...

#UN #Food Agency FAO: World food prices hit 10-year high. On a year-on-year basis, prices up 32.8% in September, 2021. #wheat #vegetables #oil #sugar #meat #agriculture #Inflation - Pakistan Today

World food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a 10-year peak, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) also projected record global cereal production in 2021, but said this would be outpaced by forecast consumption.

The FAO’s food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 130 points last month, the highest reading since September 2011, according to the agency’s data.

The figure compared with a revised 128.5 for August. The August figure was previously given as 127.4.

On a year-on-year basis, prices were up 32.8 per cent in September.

Agricultural commodity prices have risen steeply in the past year, fuelled by harvest setbacks and Chinese demand.

The FAO’s cereal price index rose by two per cent in September from the previous month. That was led by a near four per cent increase for wheat prices, with the UN agency citing tightening export availabilities amid strong demand.

“Among major cereals, wheat will be the focus in the coming weeks as demand needs to be tested against fast-rising prices,” FAO Senior Economist Abdolreza Abbassian said in a statement.

World vegetable oil prices were up 1.7pc in the month, showing a year-on-year rise of about 60pc, as palm oil prices climbed on robust import demand and concerns over labour shortages in Malaysia, the FAO said.

Palm oil futures have rallied further in early October to hit record highs as a surge in crude oil markets has lent further support to vegetable oils used in biodiesel.

Global sugar prices rose 0.5pc in September with concern over adverse crop weather in top exporter Brazil partly offset by slowing import demand and a favourable production outlook in India and Thailand, according to the FAO.

For cereal production, the FAO projected a record world crop of 2.8 billion tonnes in 2021, up slightly from 2.78bn estimated a month ago.

That would be below world cereal use of 2.81bn tonnes, a forecast revised up by 2.7 million tonnes from a month earlier mainly to reflect increased wheat use in animal feed, the FAO said in a cereal supply and demand note.

Global cereal stocks were expected to ease in 2021/22 but would still be at a comfortable level, the FAO added.

Riaz Haq said...

Pakistan PM unveils country’s ‘biggest ever’ welfare programme
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan unveiled $709m package of subsidies for low-income households struggling with food price inflation.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan unveiled a $709m package of food subsidies to ease the financial burden on low-income households as the prices of essentials continue to soar in the South Asian country.

Addressing the nation on Wednesday evening, Khan described the benefits package as “Pakistan’s biggest ever welfare programme”.

“This package is of Rs 120 billion ($709.2m), which the federal and provincial governments are giving jointly,” he said. “In this, we are [targeting] the three most important food items, ghee, flour and pulses.”

Under the plan, some 20 million qualifying low-income households will be entitled to a 30 percent discount on the purchase of the three items. The federal and provincial governments will make up the difference to retailers in the form of subsidy payments.

The subsidies will last for six months, Khan said, and are aimed at the poorest households, as classified by the government-run Ehsaas welfare programme.

Pakistani households have been dealing with spiralling consumer price inflation (CPI) in recent months, with October’s CPI clocking in at 9.2 percent compared with a year earlier.

Food inflation for core commodities has been particularly high, with the price of ghee increasing by 43 percent, flour by 12.97 percent and certain pulses by 17.62 percent over the last year, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The coronavirus pandemic hit the country’s economy hard, with economic growth slowing to 0.53 percent in 2020, according to the World Bank.

Prices for food, energy and other essential goods have skyrocketed around the world this year as countries cast off COVID-19 restrictions, triggering supply shortages and bottlenecks.

World food prices rose for a third straight month in October, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization said on Thursday, hitting a new 10 year high. Last month’s increase was driven by vegetable oils and cereals.

Khan blamed Pakistan’s inflation on international commodity prices, including petrol, claiming that his government had done a better job than others to absorb global price increases.

“What can we do about this? The inflation that is coming from outside. Let Allah make it so that we have all these things in our country, then we can reduce prices, but [not for things being imported],” he said.

Pakistan, which relies heavily on imports of essentials as well as other goods, has also been hit hard by a devaluation of its currency this year.

The Pakistani rupee has lost 13.1 percent of its value against the US dollar since May.

Khan’s government has expanded welfare spending during the pandemic to address unemployment and poverty, disbursing 179 billion rupees ($1.06bn) in grants to low-income families this year, according to government data.

Consumer Price Inflation, however, appears set to continue to increase, with Khan warning in his speech on Wednesday that the government would likely have to raise petroleum and diesel prices, in response to global oil price increases.