Friday, December 16, 2016

International Migrants Day: India Tops Labor Export, Pakistan Ranks 6th

India is the world's largest exporter of labor with 15.8 million Indians working in other countries. Bangladesh ranks 5th with 7.2 million Bangladeshis working overseas while Pakistan ranks 6th with 5.9 million Pakistanis working overseas, according to Pew Research report released ahead of International Migrants Day observance on Sunday, December 18, 2016.

International Migration: 

Countries of Origin of Migrants to the United States Source: Pew Research




Pew Research reports that nearly 3.5 million Indians lived in the UAE, the world’s second-largest migration corridor in 2015. While most of the migration is from low and middle income countries to high-income countries, the top 20 list of migrants' origins also includes rich countries like the United States (ranked 20), United Kingdom (11), Germany (14), Italy (21) and South Korea (25).

Top 25 Sources of Migrants:

Here is the list of top 20 countries of origin for international migrants:


1. India 15.9 million

2. Mexico 12.3 million

3. Russia 10.6 million

4. China 9.5 million

5. Bangladesh 7.2 million

6. Pakistan 5.9 million

7. Ukraine 5.83 million

8.  Philippines 5.32 million

9.  Syria 5.01 million

10. Afghanistan 4.84 million

11. United Kingdom 4.92 million

12. Poland 4.45 million

13. Kazakstan 4.08 million

14. Germany 4.0 million

15. Indonesia 3.88 million

16. Palestine 3.55 million

17. Romania 3.41 million

18. Egypt 3.27 million

19. Turkey 3.11 million

20. United States 3.02 million

21. Italy 2.9 million

22. Burma (Myanmar) 2.88 million

23. Colombia 2.64 million

24. Vietnam 2.56 million

25. South Korea 2.35 million

Declining Labor Pool in Developed Economies: 

The world population is aging with slowing labor force growth. It is particularly true of the more developed nations with aging populations and declining birth rates.  In an recent report titled "Asian Economic Integration Report", the Asian Development argued that migration within Asia can help deal with regional labor imbalances. It said as follows:

"In Asia and the Pacific, many economies could expand their role as the source or host economy for migrant workers.

Labor supply is still growing in developing economies—such as Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, and the Philippines—and they could export labor across the region. In contrast, developed but aging economies such as Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Japan; and Singapore are unable to meet labor demand with their dwindling workforce.

Hence, these economies would benefit from immigrant labor. Kang and Magoncia (2016) further discuss the potential for migration to reallocate labor from surplus to deficit economies and offer a glimpse of how the demographic shift will frame Asia’s future population structure, particularly the future working age population. Among the issues explored is the magnitude of labor force surpluses and deficits within different economies in Asia."

Pakistan's Growing Labor Force:

Pakistan has the world’s sixth largest population, sixth largest diaspora and the ninth largest labor force with growing human capital. With rapidly declining fertility and aging populations in the industrialized world, Pakistan's growing talent pool is likely to play a much bigger role to satisfy global demand for workers in the 21st century and contribute to the well-being of Pakistan as well as other parts of the world.



With half the population below 20 years and 60 per cent below 30 years, Pakistan is well-positioned to reap what is often described as "demographic dividend", with its workforce growing at a faster rate than total population. This trend is estimated to accelerate over several decades. Contrary to the oft-repeated talk of doom and gloom, average Pakistanis are now taking education more seriously than ever. Youth literacy is about 70% and growing, and young people are spending more time in schools and colleges to graduate at higher rates than their Indian counterparts in 15+ age group, according to a report on educational achievement by Harvard University researchers Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee. Vocational training is also getting increased focus since 2006 under National Vocational Training Commission (NAVTEC) with help from Germany, Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands.



Pakistan's work force is over 60 million strong, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. With increasing female participation, the country's labor pool is rising at a rate of 3.5% a year, according to International Labor Organization.

With rising urban middle class, there is substantial and growing demand in Pakistan from students, parents and employers for private quality higher education along with a willingness and capacity to pay relatively high tuition and fees, according to the findings of Austrade, an Australian government agency promoting trade. Private institutions are seeking affiliations with universities abroad to ensure they offer information and training that is of international standards.


Trans-national education (TNE) is a growing market in Pakistan and recent data shows evidence of over 40 such programs running successfully in affiliation with British universities at undergraduate and graduate level, according to The British Council. Overall, the UK takes about 65 per cent of the TNE market in Pakistan.

It is extremely important for Pakistan's public policy makers and the nation's private sector to fully appreciate the expected demographic dividend as a great opportunity. The best way for them to demonstrate it is to push a pro-youth agenda of education, skills developmenthealth and fitness to take full advantage of this tremendous opportunity. Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity that could be extremely costly for Pakistan and the rest of the world.

Growth Forecast 2014-2050. Source: EIU


In the high fertility countries of Africa and Asia family sizes are continuing to decline. And in low fertility countries family sizes will continue to remain below replacement levels. Why? Because the same juggernaut forces are operating: increasing urbanization, smaller and costly housing, expanding higher education and career opportunities for women, high financial costs and time pressures for childrearing and changing attitudes and life styles.

Source: BBC



Countries With Declining Populations:

115 countries, including China (1.55), Hong Kong (1.17),  Taiwan (1.11) and Singapore (0.8) are well below the replacement level of 2.1 TFR.  Their populations will sharply decline in later part of the 21st century.

 United States is currently at 2.01 TFR, slightly below the replacement rate.  "We don't take a stance one way or the other on whether it's good or bad," said Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. Small year-to-year changes like those experienced by the United States don't make much difference, he noted. But a sharp or sustained drop over a decade or more "will certainly have long-term consequences for society," he told Utah-based Desert News National.

Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.

Median Age Map: Africa in teens, Pakistan in 20s, China, South America and US in 30s, Europe, Canada and Japan in 40s.


The Russian population grew from about 100 million in 1950 to almost149 million by the early 1990s. Since then, the Russian population has declined, and official reports put it at around 144 million, according to Yale Global Online.

Reversing Trends:

Countries, most recently China, are finding that it is far more difficult to raise low fertility than it is reduce high fertility. The countries in the European Union are offering a variety of incentives, including birth starter kits to assist new parents in Finland, cheap childcare centers and liberal parental leave in France and a year of paid maternity leave in Germany, according to Desert News. But the fertility rates in these countries remain below replacement levels.

Summary:

Overzealous Pakistani birth control advocates need to understand what countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are now seeing: Low birth rates lead to diminished economic growth. "Fewer kids mean fewer tax-paying workers to support public pension programs. An "older society", noted the late Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker, is "less dynamic, creative and entrepreneurial." Growing labor force n Pakistan can not only contribute to Pakistan's prosperity but also help alleviate the effects of aging populations and declining labor pools in more developed economies. I believe that Pakistan's growing population and young demographics should be seen as a blessing, not a curse.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

Pakistan's Expected Demographic Dividend

Pakistan's Growing Human Capital

Upwardly Mobile Pakistan

Pakistan Most Urbanized in South Asia

Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan

Do South Asian Slums Offer Hope?

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

9 comments:

Nawab said...

is the aging population in developed countries really at a concerning level?

Riaz Haq said...

Nawab: "is the aging population in developed countries really at a concerning level?"


Japan (1.4 TFR) and Russia (1.6 TFR) are experiencing among the sharpest population declines in the world. One manifestation in Japan is the data on diaper sales: Unicharm Corp., a major diaper maker, has seen sales of adult diapers outpace infant diapers since 2013, according to New York Times.


http://www.riazhaq.com/2015/07/pakistans-growing-population-blessing.html

Riaz Haq said...

Education Achievement by Religion according to Pew Research

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/12/13/religion-and-education-around-the-world/

Jews are more highly educated than any other major religious group around the world, while Muslims and Hindus tend to have the fewest years of formal schooling, according to a Pew Research Center global demographic study that shows wide disparities in average educational levels among religious groups.

These gaps in educational attainment are partly a function of where religious groups are concentrated throughout the world. For instance, the vast majority of the world’s Jews live in the United States and Israel – two economically developed countries with high levels of education overall. And low levels of attainment among Hindus reflect the fact that 98% of Hindu adults live in the developing countries of India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

But there also are important differences in educational attainment among religious groups living in the same region, and even the same country. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, Christians generally have higher average levels of education than Muslims. Some social scientists have attributed this gap primarily to historical factors, including missionary activity during colonial times. (For more on theories about religion’s impact on educational attainment, see Chapter 7.)


Drawing on census and survey data from 151 countries, the study also finds large gender gaps in educational attainment within some major world religions. For example, Muslim women around the globe have an average of 4.9 years of schooling, compared with 6.4 years among Muslim men. And formal education is especially low among Hindu women, who have 4.2 years of schooling on average, compared with 6.9 years among Hindu men.

Yet many of these disparities appear to be decreasing over time, as the religious groups with the lowest average levels of education – Muslims and Hindus – have made the biggest educational gains in recent generations, and as the gender gaps within some religions have diminished, according to Pew Research Center’s analysis.

Riaz Haq said...

IMF estimates Pakistan's per capita income at Intl$ 5,402.8 (2017, estimate), putting the country's PPP GDP at more than a trillion dollars.

It has risen from 0.56% of the global GDP in 1980 to 0.81% in 2017.

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/country-data/pakistan-gdp-country-report

It's currently ranked as the 24th largest economy in the world. PwC forecasts it to rise to the 20th largest by 2030 and 16th largest by 2050, overtaking Italy, Canada and South Korea.

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf

Riaz Haq said...

The 2030 Skills Scorecard
Bridging business, education, and the future of work

https://gbc-education.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GBC-Education-2030-Skills-Scorecard.pdf


South Asia has experienced some of the fastest economic growth rates globally. If strong investments in skills development are made, the region is poised to maintain growth in the coming decades. Today, South Asia is home to the largest number of young people of any global region, with almost half of its population of 1.9 billion below the age of 24. Youth unemployment remains high (at 9.8% in 2018) because of changing labor market demands and over — or under — qualification of job candidates. In most South Asian countries, the projected proportion of children and youth completing secondary education and learning basic secondary skills is expected to more than double by 2030. Still, on current trends, fewer than half of the region’s projected 400 million primary and secondary school-age children in 2030 are estimated to be on track to complete secondary education and attain basic workforce skills.

----------------------------------------------
More than half of South Asian youth are not on track to have the education and skills necessary for employment in 2030
South Asia has the largest youth labour force in the world with nearly 100,000 young people entering the labour market each day

With almost half of its population of 1.8 billion below the age of 24, led by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, South Asia will have the largest youth labour force in the world until 2040.This offers the region the potential to drive vibrant and productive economies. If strong investments in skills development are made, the region is poised to maintain strong economic growth as well as an expansion of opportunities in the education and skills sectors in the coming decades.

* These estimates were generated based on a 2019 update of the Education Commission’s original 2016 projections model for the Learning Generation report. Most recent national learning assessment data used for each country as follows: BCSE 2015 for Bhutan, GCE O Levels 2016 for Sri Lanka, LASI 2015 for Bangladesh, NAT 2016 for Pakistan, NCERT 2017 for India, Nepali country assessment 2017 for Nepal, O Level Exam 2016 for Maldives. Afghanistan is not included due to lack of recent learning assessment data at the secondary level.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-half-south-asian-youth-are-not-track-have-education-and-skills-necessary

Riaz Haq said...

China to provide $4m equipment for #vocational training institutes in #Pakistan for socio-economic uplift. Vocational training will support development of skilled #labor force for low cost #housing, #agriculture, #COVID mitigation, pest control, etc. https://nation.com.pk/09-Jul-2020/china-to-provide-dollar-4m-equipment-for-vocational-training-institutes

China would provide training equipment worth $4 million (approximately 650 million rupees) for the vocational training institutes/ schools around Pakistan through National Vocational and Technical Training Commission.

The signing ceremony for Letter of Exchange for provision of ‘Vocational School Equipment and Material’ was held at the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Yao Jing, Ambassador of People’s Republic of China to Pakistan, and Dr. Wang Zhihua, Minister Counsellor, Embassy of China in Pakistan attended the ceremony and from Pakistan side Noor Ahmed, Federal Secretary of Economic Affairs Division, signed the LOE.

The ambassador reassured cooperation by government of China for socio-economic development in Pakistan. A number of projects under social welfare of the poor and vulnerable people are already under progress like cooperation in PM’s Low Cost Housing Scheme and boosting rural economy through agricultural support. Government of China has also supported Pakistan to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Pesticide and equipment has been provided to control the locust spread in the southern parts of the country. The ambassador also appreciated the continuity of CPEC projects particularly establishment of export-based industry in Special Economic Zones under SEZs despite challenging conditions globally due to pandemic.

Secretary Economic Affairs reiterated strong commitment towards further strengthening and expanding of bilateral economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. Both sides agreed that all the ongoing initiatives will be pursued very closely to achieve the targeted completion so that people of Pakistan can benefit from the Chinese assistance in a more productive manner.

Riaz Haq said...

Govt set to launch Kamyab Pakistan Programme this month

https://www.dawn.com/news/1633071

Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.” — PID/File
• 4m households to be supported
• Minister says around Rs400bn worth of interest-free loans to be offered

ISLAMABAD: The government has decided in principle to launch ‘Kamyab Pakistan Progra­mme’ this month under which four million households would be assisted in various schemes.

The programme appears to be one of the major initiatives taken by the government for the poor segment of society ahead of next elections.

Talking to Dawn on Saturday, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin said: “We have finalised every aspect of this programme, and it would be launched in mid-July.”


Detailing some of the features of the programme, he said it aimed at providing support to people in housing projects, skill development, health cards and interest-free loans for businesses and agri-services.

However, he made it clear that the targets would be achieved over a period of time and not in one year.

The minister said approximately Rs300 billion to Rs400bn interest-free loans would be given in the current fiscal year 2021-22, adding that the amount had also been budgeted to provide subsidy against interest-free loans.

The minister said ‘Kamyab Jawan’ would be a part of this programme.

About broadening of tax base, Mr Tarin said a strategy was being devised to bring 7.2 million people under the tax net. The strategy will be finalised soon, however, no taxpayer would be harassed, he added.

He said the point of sales programme would be extended to maximum traders in the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, at a meeting of the Economic Advisory Council (EAC), Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin stressed the importance of long-term planning to achieve sustainable and all-inclusive economic growth.

He said Prime Minister Imran Khan had reconstituted the EAC after decades with an objective to draw up concrete proposals for sustainable economic growth through comprehensive and seamless planning and by taking all stakeholders on board.

During the third meeting of the EAC, four sub-groups gave their presentations on State-Owned Enterprises and Privatisation, Energy, Domestic Commerce and Price Stability.

Special Assistant on Finance and Revenue Dr Waqar Masood Khan gave a detailed presentation on price stability which included short-term, medium-term and long-term proposals to bring price stability in the country.

He drew a comparative analysis between prices prevailing in Pakistan and those in the entire region – both in current and historical perspectives.

Zaid Bashir, in his presentation on ‘Domestic Commerce Sector’, underlined the need to enrich and revive documented/integrated sectors and fully realise the true potential of e-commerce during the short term by bringing retailers into a more organised environment, ultimately benefitting the national exchequer.

Tax credit on enlistment of companies and to incentivise the induction of women in workforce were suggested as part of medium-term plans whereas financing facility for growth of the retailers and tax adjustability were suggested as part of a long-term strategy to promote domestic commerce sector.

In his presentation on energy (power) sector, Farooq Rehmatullah highlighted global, regional and local trends in the refining sectors.

The presentation also included recommendations for bringing in sustainable solutions to streamline operations from oil downstream to marketing sectors.

Mr Rehmatullah gave suggestions to deal with challenges faced by the LPG, exploration and production sectors and to explore renewable energy resources in Pakistan.

Sultan Ali Allana, meanwhile, spoke on ‘State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)’ while the privatisation secretary, Hassan Nasir Jamy, updated the EAC on privatisation.


Riaz Haq said...

India set to overtake #China as most #populous nation by 2027. Home to 1.3 billion people, #India has been witnessing an influx of people migrating from villages to cities in search of better #job and #education prospects. #economy #Housing https://news.yahoo.com/india-set-overtake-china-most-104255301.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr via @YahooNews

India is on track to overtake China as the world's most populated country by 2027, according to the United Nations.

And it's facing a housing crisis.

Home to 1.3 billion people, India has been witnessing an influx of people migrating from villages to cities in search of better job and education prospects.

However, affordable housing remains an unresolved problem, which has lead to a mushrooming of illegal settlements and slums.

24-year-old Priya moved to Delhi from Rajasthan for work.

"Like, because of, you know, job purposes, from villages, people have to shift to cities and I mean of course cities are now very populated. So, you know, if we make our villages more developed, more educated, I think, this difference will not be there."

Informal housing is often unauthorised with poor sanitisation facilities, unplanned drainage, and an erratic supply of clean drinking water and electricity.

Bhupinder Kumar lives near a settlement in Delhi.

He says, '' in the next 20 years, people will turn into cannibals'', given the lack of jobs and homes.

The Indian government launched the Housing For All Mission in 2015, with a 2022 deadline.

It aims to build 20 million urban housing units and 30 million rural homes.

India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh recently proposed legislation aiming to promote a two-child policy.

Under the state government proposals unveiled on Saturday (July 10), couples with more than two children would not be allowed to receive government benefits or subsidies and would be barred from applying for state government jobs.

Riaz Haq said...

UP's fertility rate nearly halved from 4.82 in 1993 to 2.7 in 2016 - and it's expected to touch 2.1 by 2025, according to a government projection.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57801764


Given the falling rates, "incentivising sterilisation is counterproductive", Ms Muttreja added, because "70% of India's increase in population is going to come from young people. So, what we need is non-permanent, spacing methods".

Fertility rates have dipped below replacement levels - 2.1 births per woman - in 19 out of India's 22 states and federally administered territories for which data has been released in the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS). Data from the remaining nine states, including UP, is not ready yet.

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Increased awareness, government programmes, urbanisation, upward mobility and greater use of modern methods of contraception have all contributed to this.

Nearly half of the world's countries have seen an extraordinary decline in fertility rates. By 2070, the global fertility rate is expected to drop below replacement levels, according to the UN.

China's fertility rate had dropped to 1.3 in 2020, while India's was 2.2 at the last official count in 2016.

Will the world's 'first male birth control shot' work?
Why do Indian women go to sterilisation camps?
So, why implement this rule now?
One reason, according to demographers, is the differing rates across India.

Six states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh - that are home to roughly 40% of India's population also have fertility rates higher than the replacement level, 2.1. This is in sharp contrast with Kerala (1.8), Karnataka (1.7), Andhra Pradesh (1.7) or Goa (1.3).

"Also, our cities are overcrowded and ill-planned. They convey an image of over-population," Dr KS James, director of International Institute of Population Sciences, said.

Political analysts also believe UP's chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, has an eye on state elections slated for next year. And, with such a drastic move, he hopes to signal a development agenda that is removed from his controversial image as a divisive right-wing Hindu nationalist.

This is not a new idea either. In 2018, more than 125 MPs wrote to the president asking for the implementation of a two-child norm. The same year the Supreme Court dismissed several petitions seeking population control measures as it could lead to a "civil war-like situation". In the last year, three MPs from Mr Adityanath's governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) introduced bills in parliament to control population.

Since the early 1990s, 12 states have introduced some version of the two child-policy.

Did it work?
It's hard to say because different states implemented different versions of it - some left loopholes and others introduced financial incentives alongside the punitive measures.

There has been no independent evaluation either but a study in five of the states showed a rise in unsafe and sex-selective abortions, and men divorcing their wives or giving up their children for adoption so they could contest polls.

But the results are mixed - four states revoked the law; Bihar started in 2007 but still has the country's highest fertility rate (3.4); and Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have all seen a remarkable drop in fertility rates with no such norms in place.

"India is at a perfect stage as far as population distribution is concerned," Niranjan Saggurti, director of the Population Council's office in India said.

Experts say India has entered a demographic dividend - the ability of a young and active workforce to catapult economies out of poverty. How India can harness this, especially in populous states like Uttar Pradesh, remains to be seen.